Market Overview - The market experienced a decline, with the Wind All A index dropping by 1.2% and the three major Hong Kong indices falling by approximately 2% [1] - The decline was attributed to external factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and Jerome Powell's firm stance during the press conference [2][4] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate appears stable, but inflation risks are expected to rise due to tariffs, leading to a continued pause in interest rate cuts [2] - The G7 summit discussions were reportedly unproductive, with trade negotiations between the US and Europe extended to July 9, increasing the likelihood of ongoing trade conflicts [2] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market saw a significant drop, with the AH premium index returning above 130 after seven trading days [4] - The low HIBOR rate has contributed to excessive liquidity in the Hong Kong banking market, benefiting small-cap and growth stocks [4][10] IPO Market Activity - The recent IPO of Haitian Flavor Industry in Hong Kong attracted nearly HKD 400 billion in subscriptions, significantly surpassing previous IPOs [5][6] - The low financing costs due to HIBOR being near zero have encouraged leveraged investments in IPOs, leading to high subscription rates [7][9] Investment Risks in IPOs - Despite high initial interest, many investors in the Haitian IPO may face losses due to the stock's performance on its debut [11] - The historical high rate of IPO failures in Hong Kong raises concerns for investors considering leveraged positions in new listings [12][14] Future Market Trends - The current low HIBOR rate may reverse due to the strong Hong Kong dollar triggering a weak-side convertibility guarantee, potentially leading to liquidity withdrawal by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority [15][16] - This potential shift in liquidity could prompt leveraged funds to exit the market, contributing to further declines in overheated sectors [17] Sector-Specific Updates - In the Hong Kong market, Pop Mart announced a pre-sale model, which negatively impacted the secondary market prices of its products [20] - Ping An Life has increased its stake in Postal Savings Bank, now holding over 12% of the H-shares, indicating a focus on high-dividend and large technology stocks in the Hong Kong market [21]

今天上午，陆家嘴论坛2天议程里，最重要的部分结束了，各大监管机构的负责人分别进行了发言，有些人会觉得略失望，因为没有听到自己想 听到的信息——那些 巨大的数字，性感的举措，积极的展望 。 不过，理性来看，这其实也可以理解，5月7日，刚刚召开了"一揽子金融政策"发布会，大家可以回顾下《 为什么我对今天的发布会很乐观 》， 卖方洋洋洒洒整理出来的具体政策，就有接近30条，而短短40天之后，要再憋出30条新的重磅来，这既不现实，也无必要。 实际上，这次陆家嘴论坛召开的背景和主题，听下来很明确，就两个。 一是加大对外开放，这主要是说给外资们听的，背景就是在贸易摩擦加剧、美元信用走弱的宏观背景下，怎么样，把朋友搞得多多的。 二是加大对上海金融中心的支持。 所以， 我个人依然对论坛传递的信息和信号，"很乐观" ，即使没有比较浅白的，那些巨大的数字、性感的举措、积极的展望，有几个点，也值得展开简 单聊聊。 一共9条。 ...... 1、股民最关心的，当然还是科创成长层的设立。 很多人一看到这条信息，就条件反射般地开始阴阳——又要加速圈钱了。 其实，我们在《 腾讯回A股上市？ 》里，明确说过观点： 不应该把IPO当做洪水猛兽 ...

Group 1: New Consumption Sector - The Hong Kong new consumption sector experienced significant declines, with major stocks dropping around 6%, making it the worst-performing sector in the market [2] - There are no specific negative news driving this decline, but the rapid price increases have led to increased short-selling sentiments and profit-taking behavior [2][3] - Concerns about counterfeit products, particularly regarding Labubu toys, have emerged, with customs seizing over 20,000 fake items, raising questions about market saturation and pricing sustainability [3][4][5] Group 2: Innovative Pharmaceuticals Sector - The Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals sector fell over 5%, marking a total decline of approximately 10% since the previous week [7][9] - News regarding potential drug tariffs has created uncertainty, leading to a cautious approach among investors [8] - The recent share reduction by major shareholders in the pharmaceutical sector has contributed to market volatility, as it signals potential overvaluation and prompts other investors to consider profit-taking [9][10] Group 3: Market Trends and External Factors - Short-term interest rates for bonds have seen significant declines, indicating recent market volatility [20] - Foreign capital has been increasingly buying short-term bonds, suggesting a positive outlook on the RMB exchange rate and a growing confidence in the A-share market [22][23] - Insurance companies are preemptively lowering the guaranteed interest rates on dividend insurance products, indicating a broader trend of rate adjustments expected in the industry [25][26]

今天A股和H股都走的修复逻辑，主要指数全线上涨，虽然以色列和伊朗还在互射导弹，甚至有要开始互相暗杀对方一号首领的消息（内塔尼夜 壶接受fox采访，说川宝被伊朗人刺杀两次，他也被刺杀过，而伊朗那边也有类似的消息），但对A股的影响，坦率来说是比较有限的。 下图，昨天推文中，我们也提到，伊以冲突，对我们的影响主要是油、金板块上， 市场的主线还是"以我为主" ，包括，今天军工板块开盘就 跌，毫无反应，这和印巴冲突时，炒军工的逻辑，大不相同了，因为潜在的支持力度，没法同日而语，懂的都懂，不展开。 ...... 今天修复过程中， 比较惨的，是创新药板块。 和港股相比，A股的监管机构，已经算是很保护家人们了，港股的镰刀割起来，可以说都是迅雷不及掩耳盗铃之势（好处在于，价格发现机制更加敏感， 不容易过热，因为一过热，大股东就会浑身亢奋）。 我们上周四晚上聊到港药要不要止盈的时候，提到，在彼时那个位置来看，短期内，如果出现10%以上的回调，并不会让人惊讶。 事实上，从上周五开盘的高点，到今天日内的低点算，港股创新药短期最大回撤已经超过了6%，算是相对跑的比较差的板块。 但是，创新药板块今天是有利好的，国家药监局，下午发布了 《 ...

而此前宣布的，首批5000亿的注资对象，是中行、交行、建行、邮储，暂时不包括工行、农行。 大家晚上好，周五晚上有两则很重要的公告，我看还没什么人聊，那咱就正好聊聊。 交行、中行，分别在周五晚上公告称，财政部等已完成了对其的定增 ，钱已经打到了两家的账上， 完 成了验资， 可以说，在周末的父亲节之前，财爸送出了接近3000亿的大礼包，下图，来自交行的公 告。 我们之前聊过财爸的5000亿注资计划，既然第一笔钱已经花出去了，不妨再盘一盘，一些要素，以及对 各个主体的影响。 1、从溢价的角度看。 上图有介绍增资的定价计算方法，因为两次公告之间，进行了分红，所以最终中行定增价是5.93块、交 行是8.51块，而两者上周五的收盘价，分别是5.34、7.69， 分别溢价11%、10.6%左右 ，也就是说，财 爸都买贵了10-11%，当然，溢价的原因在于，增资后，会摊薄原有的EPS和股息率，所以算是弥补原有 的股东。 2、这次注资的对象，是中行和交行。 本次注资， 对交行有个额外的重要影响 ——在财政部本次增资之前，财政部持有的交行的A+H股的比 例合计是24%左右，而本次增资后，合计超过了35%，也就是说超过了30%这一 ...

事实上，今天一共有两个利空。 昨天提到AH溢价指数创5年内新低，港股可能短期有回调压力，没想到内塔尼夜壶...啊不是，内 塔尼亚胡先生，第一个递刀子过来了——以色列炮轰伊朗，恒生科技今天再跌近2%，两日合计回 调4%了。 第一个利空，是昨晚，美国商务部宣布，对钢制家电 ，征收50%的关税，但这个，实际的边际影 响没那么大，假设一台洗衣机我们出口美国卖500美刀，他会按成分分开征税——假设洗衣机里 钢和铝的比例是20%，那么针对非钢铝的80%的部分，征收目前55%的关税；而对20%的钢铝部 分，多收50%的关税，但可以免除10%的基准对等关税，所以实际是95%。 换句话说，如果家电里面的钢铝比例较低的，那么增加的关税，不会比之前多太多。 家电板块今天跌不到1.4%，在申万一级行业里跌幅处于中位数水平，不算多，而家电板块真正的压 力，其实在于 很多省份的国补资金，消耗的差不多了 ，不少都已经暂缓或者改模式了，叠加之前的国 补，使得消费需求前置（这也是一季度小米的家电板块业绩炸裂的核心原因），后续国内老百姓的购买 力还剩多少，才是未来几个季度的大问题。 第二个利空，当然就是以色列对伊朗的轰炸了 。 不少人看新闻可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting the recent drop in the AH premium index, which has reached a five-year low, indicating potential investment strategies based on historical patterns of market behavior [1][3][4]. Group 1: AH Premium Index - The AH premium index, which measures the price ratio of A-shares to H-shares for companies listed on both exchanges, has fallen below 130, marking the lowest point since June 2020 [1][3]. - Historically, when the AH premium index drops below 130, it has often been followed by a sharp rebound, suggesting that this threshold can serve as a quantitative trading factor for investors [3][4]. - The frequency of the AH premium index dropping below 130 has increased, indicating a downward shift in its central tendency, which may suggest a new normal for the index [4][5]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Since February 2024, the market has experienced a prolonged downtrend, influenced by unprecedented interest rate declines and policy adjustments affecting institutional investments in Hong Kong stocks [5][6]. - Short-term adjustments in the Hong Kong market are anticipated due to the AH premium index falling below 130, with recent net selling by southbound funds in major internet companies indicating market pressure [6]. - In the medium to long term, the low interest rate environment may continue to push the AH premium index lower, establishing a new norm where the index remains below 130 for an extended period [6]. Group 3: Biopharmaceutical Sector - Despite the overall decline in the Hong Kong market, the biopharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Medical ETF rising over 50% year-to-date [8][10]. - The introduction of the 18A policy by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2018 has allowed unprofitable biotech companies to list, leading to a supply advantage for innovative drug companies in Hong Kong compared to A-shares [10]. - Investors are advised to consider both long-term asset allocation in high-growth sectors and short-term trading strategies in the volatile biopharmaceutical market [12][14].

Group 1 - The market showed strong performance today, with significant gains in sectors such as rare earths, Hong Kong brokerage firms, and Hong Kong automotive stocks [4][5][8] - The US-China talks are progressing positively, with the US focusing on rare earths and China on chips, leading to a surge in the rare earth sector, which saw an 18% increase today and over 110% this week [5][8] - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift towards reducing payment terms for suppliers to 60 days, down from an average of 150 days last year, which is expected to benefit automotive parts manufacturers in the short term [11][12] Group 2 - Tencent is a key player in the potential return of Hong Kong-listed companies to the A-share market, following new policies allowing companies from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [15][16][17] - The market capitalization of Tencent is significantly higher than that of the largest A-share company, indicating its dominance and the potential impact of its return on the A-share market [17] - The return of major tech companies to the A-share market could improve the overall structure of A-share indices, which currently have a high concentration of traditional industries and low growth potential [19][20]

Group 1 - The article discusses a recent incident of account hacking related to stock market scams, highlighting the organized and large-scale nature of this illegal activity [2][3][5] - It emphasizes the importance of using proper business registration methods to avoid such issues, recommending that individuals register public accounts under corporate entities rather than individual business licenses [5][6] - The article warns about the proliferation of stock market scams, particularly during bullish market conditions, and advises caution, especially for older individuals who may be more susceptible to such schemes [6][7] Group 2 - The article notes a significant drop in the stock market, attributing it to global macro variables, particularly the impact of US-China negotiations, which affected multiple markets simultaneously [9] - It mentions the recent inclusion of certain stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which led to substantial price increases initially, but these stocks later experienced declines, indicating volatility in the market [12][13] - The article highlights the importance of understanding the implications of index adjustments, such as those in the S&P 500, which can lead to significant trading activity and price movements in related stocks [15][16] Group 3 - The article suggests that the current investment strategy remains focused on risk assets while not being bearish on bonds, indicating a positive outlook for certain investment opportunities [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a technical bull market, with the three major indices (Hang Seng, Hang Seng Tech, and Hang Seng China Enterprises) rebounding over 20% from their April lows, and all showing year-to-date gains exceeding 20% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The year-to-date performance of the three indices is as follows: Hang Seng Index +20.55%, Hang Seng Tech Index +21.60%, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index +20.44% [2]. - The median increase across 28 industry indices in the Hang Seng is around 10%, with sectors like pharmaceuticals, technology, and new consumption leading the gains [4]. Group 2: Economic Cycles - Key economic cycles influencing the market include unprecedented low interest rates and policy easing for insurance capital equity investments, which have been discussed extensively [6]. - The rebound in the platform economy and supportive policies for the home appliance sector have benefited major internet companies like Xiaomi and JD.com, while companies like Pinduoduo have struggled due to lack of support [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The biotechnology index has seen significant gains, with the Hong Kong-listed biotechnology index up by 55.17%, and other indices like the new economy index and technology index also showing strong performance [5]. - The previous bull market from early 2019 to early 2021 was characterized by a surge in technology stocks, while the current market is more balanced across various sectors, including new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [7]. Group 4: Investment Insights - Recent trends indicate a strong performance in the AI sector, particularly in the ChiNext AI index, which has outperformed the Sci-Tech Innovation Board AI index [21][25]. - The recent surge in the innovative pharmaceutical sector is attributed to government policies aimed at improving public health and accelerating the approval of innovative drugs [27]. Group 5: International Relations and Market Sentiment - Ongoing discussions between the US and China are progressing, particularly regarding rare earth exports, which have seen a month-on-month increase of nearly 23% [29]. - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the S&P 500 reaching 6000 points, indicating a rise in global risk appetite [30].