Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the micro-cap market, particularly the significant drop in the North Exchange 50 index, attributing it to various factors including market sentiment, high valuations, and the impact of specific stocks [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Volatility - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a drop of 6.15%, marking it as the 10th largest single-day decline in its three-year history, with six days in 2024 alone seeing declines over 6% [1][2]. Reasons for Market Movement - Increasing warnings about micro-cap risks from fund managers have led to some investors taking profits, especially after the North Exchange 50 reached a historical high [2]. - The current valuations are notably high, with the North Exchange 50 at a rolling P/E ratio of 76, the China 2000 at 136, and the Sci-Tech 50 at 140, all at extreme levels compared to historical data [2]. - The significant drop in the largest component stock, Jinbo Biological, which fell by approximately 15%, has heavily influenced market sentiment, despite its year-to-date increase of 140% [2]. Future Market Pressures - The potential reopening of A-share IPOs is seen as a significant future pressure on the micro-cap market, which has thrived in a favorable speculative environment due to low funding rates and limited IPOs [4][5]. Supportive Market Conditions - The micro-cap market has benefited from low funding rates, restricted IPOs, and a lack of institutional investment, allowing it to flourish despite the absence of significant public fund inflows [5]. - Recent regulatory changes, such as the revised Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures, have positively impacted the shell value of micro-cap stocks [5]. IPO Policy Changes - The article highlights a shift in policy towards supporting high-quality, unprofitable tech companies for IPOs, indicating a trend towards more flexible and inclusive listing regulations [7][8]. - The introduction of a new mechanism for adjusting the pace of new stock issuances suggests that the current high valuations in the micro-cap sector may lead to increased supply in the near future [9][12]. Insurance Sector Investment - The insurance sector has significantly increased its equity investments, with a total of 220 billion yuan allocated, indicating a strong shift towards high-dividend blue-chip stocks [15][16]. Monetary Policy - The central bank's decision to exceed the MLF renewal by 3.75 trillion yuan indicates a net injection of liquidity into the market, which may influence bond market dynamics [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of adopting a bull market mindset, urging investors to abandon bearish thinking and recognize the potential opportunities in the current market environment [3][5][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - Ningde Times has significantly influenced market performance, with its stock rising approximately 7% in Hong Kong and around 4% in A-shares, highlighting a valuation discrepancy between the two markets [1]. - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.83%, largely driven by Ningde Times, which contributed 0.84% to the index's gain, indicating that without this stock, the index would have shown no increase [2]. Group 2: Bull Market Thinking - The article outlines characteristics of bearish thinking, including a belief that the stock market lacks long-term investment value and a tendency to project personal negative experiences onto the broader market [6][7]. - It argues that maintaining a bearish mindset can lead to missed opportunities, particularly in the context of the current favorable macroeconomic conditions [8][18]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Key factors supporting a bullish outlook for the Hong Kong market include an unprecedented low interest rate environment, relaxed regulations for insurance capital investments, and a shift in supply dynamics between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [9][10]. - Insurance capital has shown a trend of increasing equity investments, with the proportion of investments in stocks rising from 6.78% in Q1 2024 to 8.43% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant increase in capital allocation to equities [15]. Group 4: Sector Highlights - The article notes that gold and related stocks have performed well, with gold prices surpassing 3300 USD, driven by geopolitical tensions [24][25]. - It highlights the competitive advantage of Huaxia's gold ETFs, which have the lowest management fees in the market, potentially attracting more investors [26][29].

接着聊一下昨天说的几个事哈，昨天不是有说到，美的集团董事长方洪波，接受采访，说自己从来不加班，6点之后不可能还上班，而且95%的加班都是 形式主义么，听得大家都很激动，然后有小伙伴半夜私信我，给我看了方董2015年的一条微博，说加班有时会上瘾......初看起来，多少有点尴尬。 不过有一说一，这种采访，基本都是提前安排好的，里面定调的一些方向，也是有意宣传的一些企业或者管理层的价值观，只能说，从2015年到2025年， 时代在变化，风向在变化，方董的员工关系相关的管理哲学也在变化 ，我觉得这都是人之常情，谁敢说自己10年维度中，没有价值观的改变呢（此处美 的PR可以打赏五毛）。 还是那句话，不管是刘强东还是方洪波，论迹不论心，只要他嘴上说的、手上做的，对社会提供的都是正面导向，你就别管他心里是怎么想的了，坏人演 一辈子好人，就应该按好人来算，毕竟有些人，连演都不愿意演。 10年前，如果有孕 妇为了赶交付进度， 临产前还在拼命打螺丝，还能当厂里的标杆，放到现在，如果有企业敢宣传这种事，隔天就能被社交媒体上的唾 沫星子给淹咯，这其实也是时代的一种进步。 ...... 昨天还说到，存款利率下调的事情，今天四大行等一 ...

下午14点过后，本来几乎毫无波澜的债市利率，突然开始下行，市场的传闻是，要降存款利率 了，随着群里的截图越发越多，市场也越发笃定，最终10年国债下行超过2bps，30年国债下行 3bps，算是为这个传闻定价了。 我简单帮大家理一下思路，三个问题。 第一个问题，存款利率到底降没降？ 回答是，降了，也没降。 之所以这么说，是因为， 目前银行体系的存款利率，其实是三层体系 ，第一层，是大行的定存 利率，这个目前还没降，一年整存整取的利率还是1.1%；第二层，是中小行的定存利率，这个持 续在下降过程中，各家银行的情况不同，比如我们前阵子在《 确实大幅降息了 》聊到的微众银 行，5月初开始，把1-5年的各期限定存利率全部调整为了1.6%，但还是比大行的利率高了不少； 第三层，是银行的大额存单，也是卖给个人客户的，这个各家银行的定价更加五花八门。 所以，大家今天看到的各种朋友圈的消息，主要是针对的第二层和第三层的存款利率，因为很多 中小银行确实在下调的过程中，且很多分支行，借最近大额存单利率可能下调的传闻，做饥渴营 销， 类似保险预定利率要下调时候的抢停售 。 但是，存款利率里，最关键的，是大行的定存利率，这才是存款市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant developments regarding CATL and BYD, particularly their implications for the Hong Kong stock market and investment strategies. Group 1: CATL's Hong Kong Listing - CATL announced its listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange on May 20, which is faster than expected, completing the process in under 100 days since passing the hearing on May 6 [1][3]. - The IPO is projected to be the largest globally this year, with two cornerstone investors: Sinopec and the Kuwait Investment Authority [1][2]. - Sinopec's investment aligns with CATL's strategy to expand into the battery swapping business, leveraging Sinopec's extensive gas station network to create "energy centers" [1][2]. Group 2: BYD's Inclusion in the Hang Seng Index - BYD has been officially included in the Hang Seng Technology Index, replacing the Reading Group, which is a positive development for the company as it will attract passive investments from index funds [6][8]. - The adjustment will take effect on June 6, potentially leading to a significant increase in BYD's stock price due to foreign investment patterns [8]. - The automotive sector's representation in the Hang Seng Technology Index will exceed 20% following BYD's inclusion, indicating a strong presence of automotive companies in the index [8]. Group 3: Broader Market Trends - The article highlights three main trends: the acceleration of domestic companies going global, the rise of quality equity investments, and the competition among stock exchanges for quality listings [3]. - The recent changes in the Hang Seng Index reflect a strategic move to attract more high-quality companies from both A-shares and overseas markets [3]. - The article also notes the increasing scale of funds linked to the Hang Seng Technology Index, which currently stands at 114.6 billion, suggesting potential for further growth [9].

和谈超预期是事实，这从本周A股、美股的上涨，A债、黄金的下跌中，可见一斑。 伙伴们，大家好，这周前面四天没更新，大家催更的私信等，就不一一回复了，感谢大家的惦念 ，借用一图，略表此刻的心情。 本公众号会继续为大家，每日用大白话解读一下金融市场的时事，尽可能剥开底层的逻辑，这些 初心都不会变。 ...... 这周，从中美贸易和谈超预期开始，又有周三银行股一度飙涨的戏码，显然算是很刺激的一周， 我积 累了一些想聊且有意义的话题 ，正好趁今天，把本周的重要事件，总结为8条，和大家简单展开一下。 1、短期来看，中美和谈超预期，但到今天为止，对利好交易的差不多了。 高血压的那边 ，虽然4月的CPI和PPI数据，都没有显示通胀进一步走高的态势，但是市场普遍判断，是 因为此前的库存发挥了作用，而昨晚 沃尔玛 发布最新一季财报后，也明确表示，这个月就要开始提 价，即使是30%的关税，也很可能导致部分商品，有两位数以上的涨价——以沃尔玛在美国的零售市场 占比看，这是一个很明确的微观信号。 另外， 鲍师傅 昨天也出来表示，货币政策的框架可能会优化，说的很绕，其实我总结一下就是，后续 多看少动，即使通胀起来了，也不会阶段性打压，表 ...

大家晚上好，周末学习了一下央妈的一季度货币政策报告，做了一个解读 ，考虑到本次字数较多，且部分内容更适合小范围分享，所以， 全文就不在公众号贴了，我把标题摘录出来，感兴趣的，可以扫码进入知识星球，不感兴趣的，就看个标题。 这次的解读，分了两个part。 ...... 第一部分，针对央行报告中的6篇专栏。 专栏标题，具体如下。 之前解释过， 在央行的货币政策报告中，专栏当中的内容至关重要， 因为，货政报告的绝大多数内容，都是制式文本，也就是说，很多段 落，仅仅是对数字和表格的更新，以及对应的一层解读。 而专栏的内容， 要么是为了 体现央行对某些事件的观点 ，比如去年二季度在专栏《 资管产品净值机制对公众投资者的影响》中提到的， 利率下行导致的投资者对基金、理财的趋势性"追涨"，可能导致亏损的分析，随后在9月底、10月初的债市调整中，就直接应验了； 要么是为了 提前透露或总结部分的政策倾向 ，比如，下图， 去年四季度货政报告的5篇专栏 ，开年至今，我们都已经能直观感受到这 些"央行想法"的落地，如专栏4和专栏5提到的再贷款、养老金融，就体现为周五刚刚落地推出的，5000亿的服务消费和养老金融再贷款政 策中。 | ...

本来这个话题，昨天想聊的，但因为昨天市场又涨了，怕你们说我是马后炮，所以就赶在下跌的日子聊 吧。 年初，我们就强调 地区分散、股债均衡 的思路， 看好风险资产 ，目前跟投的组合，也都赚了点钱。 今天A股 80%左右的个股下跌，算是节后第一次下跌，要说利空的话，掰掰手指头，一共有三个。 其一，昨天下午，印度那边把关了三天的水坝，重新开了 闸，局势有所缓和，今天印度股市小跌1个 点，巴基斯坦股市则小幅反弹，A股 军工 板块的炒作也顺势熄了火，今天领跌全市场； 其二，是半导体两大龙头， 中芯和华虹 先后披露了一季报，这俩是A+H两地上市，所以不用赶在4月 30日前披露，两家的业绩都miss了，特别是对二季度及后续的指引不及预期，且一季报还显示国家 大 基金有减持的迹象 ，两者股价纷纷大跌，把整个芯片板块带坏了，包括两者在恒生科技的权重合计是 10个点左右，也使得今天恒科比恒生指数弱了不少； 其三，是 美/英 达成了贸易协议，除了我们之外，美国的贸易谈判，主要围绕20个左右的国家和地区， 如果英美达成协议，那么后续其他谈判对手会不会跟进，是否会对周末的中美会谈形成压力呢，这也是 一种可能。 当然，算上节前的2天，市场 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to rise, with over 70% of stocks increasing today, led by the military industry sector, driven by escalating conflicts between India and Pakistan [1][2] - The conflict between India and Pakistan is intensifying, with both sides claiming victories, making it difficult to ascertain the actual situation [1][2] - Pakistan's stock market experienced a significant decline, attributed to its smaller market size and higher volatility, with a total market capitalization of approximately 330 billion RMB [4][5] Group 2 - The Indian stock market showed limited impact from the conflict, with major indices declining by less than 1% [2] - Pakistan's KSE 30 and KSE 100 indices, which represent the largest companies, faced a dramatic drop, marking the largest single-day decline since the 2008 financial crisis [2][4] - Despite the recent downturn, Pakistan's stock market has seen substantial growth over the past two years, with increases exceeding 50% and 70%, making it one of the fastest-growing markets globally [5] Group 3 - The disparity in national strength between India and Pakistan is evident, with Pakistan's military capabilities appearing stronger due to its unique ethnic composition and historical context [5][8] - The ongoing military tensions may lead to increased interest in military-related investments, as evidenced by the rise in military stocks following incidents like the recent explosion in Karachi [11]

今天还是先聊聊上午的发布会，昨天会议通知出来后，我们提到四点，一是大概率一把手出席，二是应该不会发布突破既有框架的政策，三是不 要抱有太大的预期，更像是阶段性成果的定期通报，四是可能降准。 坦率说，发布会整体是超过我个人预期的，当然，核心是我的预期放的足够低。 我借一下中信建投汇总的信息， 下图，把发布会涉及的政策贴一下 。 不过，从资产价格的反映来看， 大部分人可能会觉得低于预期 ，下图，沪深300高开低走，而30年国债一路上行，股债都是日内被套的行情。 但是，我还是想聊一下， 为什么， 我对发布会很乐观。 注意，为了防止有人抬杠，我再强调一下， 我是对"发布会"本身体现出来的信息和趋势，很乐观 ，并不是对经济、股市等全面乐观。 事实上，我们要清楚，当下我们面临的，最大的三个问题，一是疫情后的伤疤效应，二是逆全球化下的供给过剩，三是城镇化冲顶后的长期人口 下行周期，这些，都不是三个金融监管部门可以解决的事情。 所以，得首先承认， 降准降息等政策，并不是板蓝根 ，是没法包治百病的，这样才能建立起合理的预期，更好理解政策的导向，并做出相应的 投资决策。 ...... 我把发布会体现出来的信息和趋势，总结成10条 ...