Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of automotive intelligence as a revolutionary shift in transportation, predicting that 2025 will be a pivotal year for the industry, with significant increases in L3 automation penetration rates and a competitive landscape that favors strong players [2][4]. Group 1: Automotive Intelligence Revolution - Automotive intelligence is described as a transportation revolution, with three key components: L3 automation aiding car sales, L4 Robotaxi enabling software monetization, and the global rise of domestic brands [2][4]. - The penetration rate of L3 automation is projected to increase from 10% in 2025 to over 80% by 2027, driven by consumer demand and new vehicle cycles [2][4]. Group 2: June Summary of Intelligence - In June, the penetration rate of urban NOA (L3 automation) reached 22.0%, marking the first time it surpassed 20% [3][9]. - The overall urban NOA penetration rate for the Li Auto 2025 model reached 54.9%, a month-on-month increase of 10.6 percentage points, indicating a significant shift in consumer demand [3][9]. Group 3: Key New Models - The Xiaopeng G7 Ultra was launched with the industry's first L3-level computing platform, featuring three Turing AI chips with an effective computing power of over 2200 TOPS [3][9]. - The Xiaomi YU7 model includes the NVIDIA AGX Thor chip, enhancing its performance with a threefold increase in clip count compared to the previous version [3][9]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations for 2025 - The article recommends focusing on intelligent vehicles as the core investment theme, with a preference for Hong Kong stocks over A-shares, highlighting companies like Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, and Xiaomi Group [4][8]. - It also suggests investing in incremental components related to AI chips and domain controllers, naming companies such as Horizon Robotics and Desay SV [4][8]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Trends - The automotive intelligence market is expected to see a significant increase in the penetration of new energy vehicles, with projections indicating a rise to 50%-80% by 2027 [18]. - The article outlines a two-phase consumer willingness to pay for intelligence, with the first phase focusing on hardware sales and the second phase aiming for software monetization [18].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry shows resilience in its fundamentals, with AI growth style stocks outperforming expectations in H1 2025. The performance of various sub-sectors aligns with expectations, although some areas fell short. The automotive robotics sector performed the best, followed by passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, and heavy trucks, while dividend styles lagged behind AI growth styles [2][8]. Summary by Sections H1 2025 Automotive Industry Review - The automotive sector's fundamentals remained strong, with the "old-for-new" policy effectively supporting the market. Overall performance met expectations, with some sub-sectors underperforming. The automotive robotics sector led in stock performance, followed by passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, and heavy trucks, while dividend styles underperformed compared to AI growth styles [2][8]. H2 2025 Stock Selection Strategy - The automotive industry is at a crossroads, reminiscent of 2011 and 2018. The end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom is approaching, while the smart vehicle sector is emerging. Commercial vehicles and two-wheelers are seen as promising investment areas. The strategy focuses on identifying cyclical alpha stocks and embracing the next industrial trends of smart technology and robotics [3][8]. H2 2025 Key Stock Adjustments - The focus will shift to increasing the weight of dividend and quality stocks. Recommended stocks include: - Dividend & Quality: Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Chunfeng Power, and parts suppliers like Fuyao Glass and Xingyu Co. - AI Growth: Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, Huawei (Seres and SAIC), and parts suppliers like Horizon Robotics and Top Group [4][8]. 2025 Automotive Sector Outlook - Key assumptions include the continuation of the "old-for-new" policy and no escalation in trade war risks. - Passenger Vehicles: Total domestic sales forecasted at 23.66 million units (up 3.9% YoY), with new energy vehicle sales at 14.32 million units (up 33% YoY). - Heavy Trucks: Domestic sales expected at 700,000 units (up 16.3% YoY). - Buses: Domestic sales forecasted at 87,600 units (up 20% YoY). - Motorcycles: Domestic sales expected at 4.46 million units (down 4% YoY) [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - The screw rod, as a core linear drive component, has a high technical barrier in its thread processing technology, which is crucial for its manufacturing and application across various industries such as machine tools, aerospace, robotics, and automotive [2][6]. Group 1: Screw Rod Types and Applications - Screw rods can be categorized into three types based on friction characteristics: trapezoidal screw rods, ball screw rods, and planetary roller screw rods, with ball screw rods achieving a transmission efficiency of 90%-96%, significantly higher than trapezoidal screw rods [2][6]. - Planetary roller screw rods outperform ball screw rods in load capacity, lifespan, lead, space, and speed, making them suitable for high-precision and high-load applications [2][20]. Group 2: Market Demand and Growth - The demand for screw rods is expected to grow steadily due to the robust growth in machine tools and new energy sectors, with humanoid robots opening new market opportunities. The market for planetary roller screw rods is projected to exceed 45 billion yuan by 2030 [3][4]. - In humanoid robots, screw rods account for approximately 19% of the value, with a potential demand for 14 planetary roller screw rods per robot, plus additional micro planetary roller screw rods used in dexterous hands [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - European companies dominate the planetary roller screw rod market, with significant market share held by foreign firms such as Rollvis and GSA, which together account for nearly 60% of the market in China. This indicates substantial room for domestic replacement [3][4]. - The screw rod industry has a complete supply chain, with upstream components including raw materials and processing equipment, midstream products being various types of screw rods, and downstream applications spanning automotive, humanoid robots, industrial mother machines, and more [47][48]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The investment outlook for screw rods is positive, with recommendations for companies such as Fuda Co., Ltd. and Beite Technology, while also suggesting to monitor companies like Shuanglin Co., Ltd. and Wuzhou Xinchun [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The dexterous hand market is expected to grow significantly, reaching $1.706 billion in 2024 and projected to increase to $1.921 billion in 2025 and $3.036 billion by 2030, driven by the demand for humanoid robots that require more advanced dexterous hands with higher degrees of freedom [2][11]. Market Overview - The dexterous hand market is anticipated to reach 760,100 units in 2024, with projections of 861,800 units in 2025 and 1,412,100 units by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.38% and 9.59% respectively [28][29]. Driving Solutions - The mainstream driving solutions include underactuated, external/mixed, and electric drives, with a shift from hollow cup motors to brushless gear motors. Underactuated designs sacrifice precision for cost reduction and faster deployment, while electric drives are favored for their modular design and high precision [3][11][45]. - Tesla's third-generation dexterous hand has replaced some hollow cup motors with brushless gear motors, indicating a potential shift in motor solutions [3][11]. Transmission Solutions - Transmission solutions encompass gear/worm gear, linkages, screws, and tendon-driven systems, each with its advantages and disadvantages. The tendon + screw composite transmission can enhance transmission precision while maintaining flexibility, exemplified by Tesla's third-generation dexterous hand [4][5][51]. Perception Solutions - Multi-modal perception is a defined trend, with force/torque sensors evolving towards strain gauge types and flexible sensors focusing on enhancing sensitivity and stability. MEMS pressure sensors, particularly resistive types, are becoming more prevalent in dexterous hand applications [6][66][74]. Industry Trends - Both domestic and international products are increasingly pursuing high degrees of freedom and multi-modal perception, highlighting the industry's development trends. Investment recommendations include companies involved in reducers and screw chains, such as Fuda Co., Zhejiang Rongtai, and Wuzhou Xinchun [8][11]. Future Outlook - The iteration of Tesla's dexterous hand clearly indicates a mainstream shift towards tendon-driven systems, achieving a doubling of degrees of freedom, transmission upgrades, drive switching, and breakthroughs in multi-modal perception [7][11].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry showed slight growth in production, wholesale, and export in May, exceeding initial expectations [2][15][28] Volume Tracking - In May, heavy truck production reached 84,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of 18.8% and 6.8% respectively [2][15] - Wholesale sales for May were 89,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6% and a month-on-month increase of 1.3% [2][15] - Terminal sales totaled 63,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 17.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% [2][15] - Export sales were 26,500 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.4% but a month-on-month increase of 3.5% [2][15] - The total industry inventory is currently at 144,000 units, which is considered a reasonable level [2][15] Structural Tracking - New energy heavy trucks saw significant growth, with sales of 15,000 units in May, representing a year-on-year increase of 192% [2][15] - The penetration rate for new energy trucks reached 23.8%, up 14.2% year-on-year [2][15] - Natural gas heavy truck sales were 14,000 units, down 33.6% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 22.1% [2][15] Market Share Tracking - In May, the market share for major manufacturers in terminal sales was as follows: Jiefang 19.8%, Dongfeng 21.9%, Heavy Truck 16.5%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 11.2%, and Foton 12.9% [3][14] - For exports, the market shares were: Jiefang 15.1%, Dongfeng 7.6%, Heavy Truck 47.9%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 16.1%, and Foton 9.0% [3][14] Engine Market Tracking - Weichai maintained the highest market share at 18.4%, despite a decline from previous months [4][18] - In May, Weichai's terminal matching volume was 12,000 units, down 33.4% year-on-year [4][18] - The market share for Weichai's diesel and natural gas engines was 13.7% and 49.8% respectively [4][18] Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the heavy truck sector's recovery driven by the National IV policy, projecting domestic sales to reach 700,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16% [5][18] - Recommended stocks include leading heavy truck manufacturers with high market share and good profit realization, specifically China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [5][18]

Core Viewpoint - The success of Xiaomi's automotive business is fundamentally rooted in the "Xiaomi Methodology," which has allowed it to "disrupt" the traditional automotive industry over the past 2-3 years. Unlike the product-driven logic of traditional automakers, Xiaomi employs a user-driven approach, leveraging big data to optimize product quality and expand its market presence [2][6]. Group 1: Product Strategy - Xiaomi aims for a comprehensive product layout, focusing on strengthening its presence in the market above 200,000 yuan with models like SU7 and YU7, while also targeting the market below 200,000 yuan, similar to its Redmi phone strategy [2][6]. - The company is committed to executing its "user-car-home ecosystem" strategy, emphasizing brand elevation and globalization, ensuring that its automotive business aligns with its overall strategic goals [2][3]. Group 2: Technology Strategy - Xiaomi positions itself as a "fast follower" in technology, with a focus on enhancing electric and intelligent driving capabilities. The company plans to allocate approximately 30% of its annual R&D budget, which is no less than 30 billion yuan, to automotive research and development [3][6]. Group 3: Market Performance - Since the official delivery of the SU7, Xiaomi's automotive revenue and gross margin have been on the rise, achieving a gross margin of 23.2% in Q1 2025. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle remains around 240,000 yuan, with single-vehicle operating losses gradually narrowing [38][40]. - The SU7 has surpassed the Tesla Model 3 to become the best-selling electric sedan in its price range, with an average monthly sales of 26,500 units in the first five months of 2025 [49][52]. Group 4: User Demographics - The user demographic for the SU7 shows a higher proportion of female users compared to Xiaomi's smartphone users, with a significant focus on young consumers aged 25-35. The vehicle's design and performance appeal to this demographic, particularly in first- and second-tier cities [53][54]. Group 5: Sales and Distribution - Xiaomi's automotive sales strategy employs a "t+N" model, where "t" represents self-operated delivery centers and "N" includes partnerships with top automotive dealers. As of May 31, 2025, Xiaomi has established 298 brand stores across 82 cities, with plans to expand further into emerging markets [43][44].

Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector remains optimistic, focusing on three main lines: dividends, intelligentization, and robotics [5][11] - The market's performance in the automotive sector has been generally average, with various sub-sectors experiencing different levels of decline, while the bus segment performed relatively well [5][11] Weekly Review Summary - In the second week of June, the compulsory insurance for vehicles reached 451,000 units, with a week-on-week increase of 27% and a month-on-month increase of 18.2% [9][45] - The performance of sub-sectors ranked as follows: SW commercial passenger vehicles (+4.3%), SW passenger vehicles (-2.1%), SW automobiles (-2.6%), SW auto parts (-2.6%), SW commercial cargo vehicles (-3.0%), and SW motorcycles and others (-4.2%) [9][11] Industry Core Changes - New models such as the Ideal i6, Equation Leopard Titanium 7, and Lynk & Co 10 EMP (Z10 plug-in hybrid version) have been registered with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [4][10] - Top Group has postponed the production of interior functional components and thermal management projects in Ningbo, reallocating some funds to a project in Thailand [4][10] - Feilong Co. has received small orders for high-power electronic water pumps for data centers from a well-known Taiwanese provider [4][10] Current Configuration of the Automotive Sector - Emphasis on technological innovation as essential for healthy development in the automotive sector, with a focus on three main lines for 2025: AI robotics, AI intelligentization, and dividends & good patterns [6][11] - Recommended stocks for the dividend & good pattern line include Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck, and several auto parts manufacturers [6][11] - For the AI intelligentization line, preferred stocks include Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, and BYD, with a focus on specific auto parts companies [6][11] Market Performance and Trends - The automotive sector's performance in A-shares ranked 23rd this week, while in Hong Kong, it ranked 16th [14][15] - The overall decline in the automotive sector is noted, with SW commercial passenger vehicles showing the best performance among sub-sectors [16][28] Sales and Forecasts - The total weekly insurance data for passenger vehicles reached 451,000 units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 249,000 units, reflecting a penetration rate of 55.2% [45] - Forecasts for 2025 suggest a retail sales expectation of 23.69 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [46][47] - The heavy truck segment is expected to see an increase in sales, with predictions of 700,000 units for domestic sales in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.3% [50][51] Robotics Sector Insights - The robotics sector is anticipated to experience significant growth, with a focus on humanoid robots and related components [59] - Key companies in the robotics sector include Top Group and Junsheng Electronics, with ongoing developments in humanoid robot production [59][60]

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？ 一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真 真切切反应到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背 后支撑因素： 1）天时： 符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余年的出 海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业【走出去】。 2）地利： 客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车已领先 海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 3）人和： 国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲击+新能 源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年宇通已率先提价，且需 求本身得益【旅游复苏+公交车更新需求】有望重回2019年水平。 客车这轮盈利能创新高吗？我们认为并不是遥不可及。 1）国内没有价格战。2）寡头龙头格局。3）海外无论新能源还是油车净利率远好于国内（无 需投固定资产）。4）碳酸锂成本持续下行。 客车这轮市值空间怎 ...

本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SＷ商用载货车(+10.7%) >SW摩托车及其他(+2.0%) >SW商用载客车 (+0.4%) > SW汽车（-0.8%）>SW汽车零部件(-1.6%)> SW乘用车(+2.0%) 。本周已覆盖标的江 淮汽车、春风动力、威迈斯、上汽集团、中国重汽涨幅前五。 本周团队研究成果： 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 本周复盘总结：六月第一周交强险35.5万辆，环比上周/上月度-22.6%/-14.8%。 外发AI+汽车智能化系列之十二——理想汽车核心竞争力剖析、精锻科技、隆鑫通用、福耀玻 璃专题第六篇深度。 本周行业核心变化： 1） 多家车企将供应商支付账期调整至60天以内； 2） 地方补贴暂停，目前基于我们统计大概 补贴受影响城市占总体汽车销量比例低于10%； 3） 小鹏G7亮相，定位为极致空间而生的家庭 科技美学中型SUV，预售价23.58万元,成为全球首款具备L3算力的新能源汽车，全系标配 702km续航，5C超充电池+全域800V SiC平台，Max版搭载双Orin-X芯片；Ultra版搭载三颗图 灵AI芯片； 4） 银轮股份公司与合作伙伴合资成立"依智灵巧"，布局人形机器 ...

投资要点 市场规模：欧洲汽车玻璃市场空间呈现低速稳定增长的状态。 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 我们对欧洲汽车玻璃市场的规模进行了测算（包括OEM市场和AM市场），在欧洲汽车报废率 和前风挡每年破损率保持稳定的情况下，随着欧洲汽车产销量、保有量以及汽车玻璃单车ASP 保持低速稳定增长，欧洲汽车玻璃市场规模也呈现出稳定低速增长的状态，整体市场空间（包 括OEM+AM）将从2024年的179.36亿元持续增长至2030年的229.24亿元，复合增长率约为 4.2%。 竞争格局：欧洲汽玻市场份额集中，近年来外部因素扰动明显。 得益于汽车玻璃行业的高壁垒，汽车玻璃行业竞争格局良好。欧洲汽车玻璃行业集中度高，头 部玩家如圣戈班、板硝子、福耀玻璃等占据主要份额。近年来，一方面2020年全球疫情爆发对 欧洲宏观经济和汽车行业均造成了较大扰动；另一方面，俄乌冲突后欧洲的能源危机导致天然 气等价格大幅上涨，成本端（能源成本在汽玻总成本中占比约为17-18%）的巨幅波动对欧洲汽 车玻璃供应链也造成了较大的冲击。 看好福耀玻璃在欧洲市场的市占率持续提升。 福耀主要竞争对手（旭硝子、板硝子和圣戈班等）均不是单一汽玻主业经营，且当前汽 ...