Core Viewpoint - The report explores whether the advantages of quantitative investment strategies can be sustained in the A-share market environment of 2026, emphasizing the importance of market mode shifts between "consensus" and "divergence" markets in determining the effectiveness of different strategies [2]. Market Outlook - The company maintains a mid-term optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2026, supported by various quantitative timing systems and technical indicators pointing to a healthy market environment [3][20]. - The style preference has shifted towards large-cap stocks, indicating a systemic change in the indicators affecting style returns [3][20]. Market Mode Shifts - The A-share market has shown distinct cyclical characteristics, alternating between "consensus" and "divergence" markets, which is crucial for assessing future strategy effectiveness [6]. - In the "consensus" phase (2017 and 2019-2021), investment strategies relied on deep research to identify core sectors and leading companies, favoring active management strategies [6]. - The "divergence" phase (2022 to mid-2025) saw a lack of consensus, leading to high-frequency switching among sectors, where quantitative strategies with systematic and diversified characteristics thrived [7]. Alpha Sources Transition - The evolution of market modes is accompanied by a shift in sources of excess returns (Alpha). In divergence markets, "trading Alpha" is predominant, focusing on capturing short-term pricing inefficiencies [11][12]. - In consensus markets, "cognitive Alpha" becomes more significant, emphasizing accurate predictions of future fundamentals and deep understanding of industry trends [12]. Market Concentration as an Indicator - Market concentration is identified as a key indicator for measuring market mode evolution and Alpha source transitions. Low concentration corresponds to divergence markets, rewarding breadth, while high concentration aligns with consensus markets, rewarding depth [13][14]. - The report predicts a return to a "central uplift platform period" for market concentration in 2026, following a recovery from historical lows [17][18]. Future Market Dynamics - The first phase of market concentration evolution is expected to see a return to historical median levels as AI themes gain acceptance, benefiting expert-driven active funds [17]. - The second phase is anticipated to enter a "weak equilibrium" platform oscillation in 2026, characterized by a dual-driven growth pattern from technology and traditional industries, which may limit rapid increases in institutional concentration [18]. Quantitative Strategy Advantages - In the anticipated "central uplift platform period," the complexity of the market may favor advanced quantitative strategies that can integrate depth (understanding main lines) and breadth (capturing rotations) [19].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy in 2025 is experiencing significant divergence, with traditional industries like manufacturing and real estate under pressure from tariffs and immigration policies, while the technology sector is seeing a surge in capital expenditure driven by the AI wave [2][3] Supply Side: Tariff and Population Pressure - The supply contraction in the U.S. economy is expected to persist due to increased tariffs and a slowdown in population growth, with the effective tariff rate rising from 2.4% last year to 9.8% this year [5][6] - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to a significant decrease in new immigrants, with labor force growth projected to drop from an average of 1.5% during the Biden administration to 0.6% during Trump's second term [6][8] - The potential for productivity improvement through AI is acknowledged, but it is expected to take time to materialize, with estimates suggesting AI could contribute approximately 0.2 percentage points to annual productivity growth by the early 2030s [7][8] Demand Side: Capital Expenditure Cycle Fluctuations - The AI investment cycle is anticipated to face volatility, with AI contributing about 0.7 percentage points to U.S. real GDP growth in the first half of 2025, but the marginal returns on capital are expected to decline as investment scales up [10][11] - The current phase of AI investment is heavily focused on data centers and hardware, resembling a "new infrastructure" cycle, with 2025 likely being the peak for investment growth [10][11] - The cost of AI infrastructure is projected to be significantly higher than during the internet bubble era, influenced by high inflation and tariffs, which may lead to increased sensitivity among investors regarding returns [11][12] Fiscal, Monetary, and "Stagflation" Risks - Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to see marginal easing, but the overall stimulus effect is likely to be limited, with the Trump administration's "Great Beautiful Act" potentially increasing the fiscal deficit by about 0.8 percentage points in 2026 [19][20] - The Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates cumulatively by 50 basis points in 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to end the year in the range of 3%-3.25% [19][20] - The U.S. economy is currently exhibiting "stagflation" characteristics, with rising material costs and declining consumer confidence, necessitating vigilance against further "stagflation" risks in the first half of 2026 [20][21]

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming CICC Annual Investment Strategy Conference 2025, highlighting key speakers and topics that will be addressed during the event [1][3]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will take place from November 12 to 14, 2025, at the Beijing Kerry Hotel [1]. - Notable speakers include Wang Shuguang, Vice Chairman and President of CICC, and Liu Shijun, Chief Advisor of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The conference will feature discussions on macroeconomic outlooks for China and the United States, led by Zhang Wenlang, Managing Director of CICC Research [5]. - Topics will also cover A-share market outlook, Hong Kong and overseas market perspectives, and asset outlooks [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The agenda includes sessions on various sectors such as real estate, fixed income, REITs, and quantitative investment strategies for 2026 [6][10]. - Specific sessions will focus on new supply dynamics in industries like automotive, photovoltaic, and energy [8]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - The conference will explore advancements in AI and its implications for infrastructure and intelligent robotics [9][11]. - Discussions will also cover the integration of AI in various applications and the emergence of new materials [12][40]. Group 5: Consumer Trends - The event will address new consumer trends, emphasizing quality of life and innovative consumption patterns [9][55]. - Topics will include the evolution of service chains, brand operations, and the rise of consumer robots [9]. Group 6: Financial Sector Developments - Insights into the wealth management industry post-fee reform and the development of a multi-layered REITs market will be presented [10]. - The conference will also discuss the opportunities and challenges presented by RWA in empowering the real economy [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of China's dual circulation economy under new geopolitical conditions, highlighting the interplay between internal and external cycles, with a focus on innovation and domestic demand as key drivers for economic growth [3][4]. Internal Circulation - The financial cycle is in a downward phase, characterized by weak demand relative to supply, leading to increased savings. This situation is exacerbated by real estate adjustments and debt tightening, which have resulted in a decline in rental and cost pressures, thereby improving supply in the real economy [9][10]. - The stock market's rise in China is primarily attributed to a decrease in risk premiums, reflecting improved market expectations, while corporate profit growth has contributed less significantly [3][4]. - The current debt burden is a significant drag on demand, necessitating external support, such as fiscal expansion, to stimulate economic activity and break the deadlock caused by deleveraging [10][39]. Scale Economy and Innovation - The article emphasizes the need for China to reassess its innovation capabilities, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence (AI). The breakthrough of DeepSeek is highlighted as a pivotal moment that has enhanced investor confidence in China's overall innovation capacity [5][15]. - The concept of scale economy is crucial, as it suggests that the development of AI models is currently experiencing diminishing returns, and the ability to generate increasing returns on a broader scale will be key for future advancements [4][21]. - The article posits that technological progress, particularly in AI, is essential for improving productivity and addressing social welfare needs, thereby creating a favorable environment for innovation and consumption [41]. External Circulation - The article notes a significant shift in China's export patterns, with a 25.7% decrease in exports to the U.S. following new tariff policies, while overall export growth remains at 6.4%. This indicates a structural change rather than a total decline in trade [25][26]. - China's exports are increasingly directed towards emerging markets and Belt and Road countries, focusing on capital goods and intermediate products rather than consumer goods, reflecting a strategic pivot in trade relationships [26][30]. - The article suggests that a new model of external circulation is emerging, where China is investing in local markets through loans and direct investments, particularly in green industries, which is expected to be accelerated by the U.S. tariff increases in 2025 [37][38]. Key to Internal Circulation: Stimulating Consumption and Deleveraging - The article argues that stimulating domestic consumption is critical for achieving macroeconomic balance and fostering innovation. Fiscal expansion, particularly in areas related to social welfare, is seen as a vital tool for enhancing consumption demand [39][41]. - The potential implementation of personal credit relief policies is highlighted as a significant step towards alleviating individual debt burdens, which could enhance consumer resilience against economic shocks [40][41].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the third-quarter performance of 73 REITs, highlighting the differentiated operational resilience across various sectors and regions, with a focus on short-term operational stability [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The industrial park sector shows structural resilience in core areas, while facing challenges in second-tier cities due to intensified market competition [4][8]. - The logistics and warehousing sector continues to exhibit operational resilience among projects linked to key tenants and leading operators [4][12]. - The rental housing sector maintains operational resilience, with some market-driven projects experiencing slight rental declines but improved occupancy rates [4][12]. - The consumer sector's listed REITs show stable performance, although some projects experience seasonal fluctuations [4][12]. - Data centers report high utilization rates, indicating stable short-term operational performance [4][12]. - Highway projects see increased traffic volumes in Q3, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing network changes [4][12]. - Municipal environmental and energy projects generally report growth, with some experiencing challenges due to resource fluctuations and grid absorption pressures [4][12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The overall distributable amount for Q3 increased by 19.6% quarter-on-quarter, although it declined by 1.2% year-on-year [5]. - The municipal environmental sector outperformed others, followed by energy, consumer, rental housing, highways, logistics, and industrial parks [5]. - The average completion rate for disclosed projects in 2025 is 28%, aligning with market expectations [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights Industrial Parks - Core area projects maintain high occupancy rates, while second-tier city projects face challenges, with Hefei High-tech REIT's occupancy rate dropping to 71.6% [8][10]. - Rental levels are under pressure, with significant declines in some projects, indicating a competitive environment [8][11]. Logistics and Warehousing - Projects with high proportions of related tenants show strong stability, while market-driven projects exhibit volatility [12][13]. - Some projects, such as Shunfeng REIT, report a decline in occupancy rates due to increased competition [12][13]. Municipal Environmental and Energy - Most municipal environmental projects report growth, with specific projects benefiting from price adjustments [4][12]. - Energy projects show mixed performance, with hydroelectric projects recovering while wind and solar face challenges [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has been active and leading globally in 2023, driven by asset revaluation narratives and structural opportunities in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside active liquidity [2][10]. Market Activity - The overall market activity has significantly increased, with an average trading volume of 257.9 billion HKD from the beginning of the year, nearly doubling from 131.8 billion HKD in 2024 [2]. - Southbound capital has surged, with a daily inflow of 6.42 billion HKD in Q3, almost double the average of 3.47 billion HKD for the entire year of 2024, totaling 1.26 trillion HKD by the end of October, a record high for the year [2][3]. Foreign Capital Dynamics - There has been a partial return of overseas funds, with passive funds significantly flowing into the market, while active funds have shown a mixed trend [5][10]. - Despite a net outflow of 9.74 billion USD from Hong Kong stocks by overseas active funds, the outflow has narrowed compared to 11.25 billion USD in the same period of 2024 [10]. - The allocation of overseas active funds to the Chinese market has increased to 7.2%, indicating a recovery in interest [10][11]. Southbound Capital Trends - Southbound capital has become a crucial support for the Hong Kong market, with a cumulative inflow of 1.26 trillion HKD, surpassing the total for 2024 and setting a new annual record since the launch of the Stock Connect [26]. - The daily trading volume of southbound capital has stabilized around 30%, reflecting its growing influence on the Hong Kong market [26][28]. Institutional and Individual Investor Dynamics - Active public funds have seen their holdings in Hong Kong stocks increase from 25.7% to 30.8%, but they are not the main drivers of southbound capital [28]. - Passive public funds have significantly increased their holdings, rising from 30.4% to approximately 41.9%, indicating a stronger trend towards passive investment strategies [31]. - Individual investors have shown a notable increase in participation, with a significant inflow into Hong Kong stock ETFs, reflecting a trend of "deposit migration" [41]. Future Outlook - The potential for further inflows from institutional investors appears limited, with estimates suggesting a possible increase of 4.5 to 6 billion HKD from active public and insurance funds [39]. - Individual investors' inflow into Hong Kong stocks could reach approximately 120 billion HKD in Q4, depending on market conditions and investor sentiment [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aiming to provide efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform features daily updates on research focuses and timely article selections, enhancing the accessibility of market insights [4]. - It provides over 3,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. Group 2: Data and Frameworks - The platform includes more than 160 industry research frameworks and over 40 premium databases, facilitating comprehensive industry data analysis [10]. - CICC Insight incorporates advanced AI search capabilities, allowing users to filter key points and engage in intelligent Q&A [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the ongoing "eyewear revolution" driven by AI glasses, highlighting their potential to enhance daily life through hands-free interaction and real-time information access [2][3]. - The article emphasizes the significant growth in AI glasses shipments, projecting a 533% year-on-year increase in 2024, with an expected total of 3.5 million units shipped by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 119% from 2024 to 2028 [6][8]. - Key players in the AI glasses market include global tech giants like Meta and domestic brands such as Xiaomi, which are innovating in hardware and software to improve user experience and functionality [6][8]. Group 2 - The article outlines the AI glasses industry chain, which consists of upstream components like SoC chips and storage, midstream optical modules, and downstream assembly processes, indicating that each segment is crucial for the overall development of AI glasses [8][10]. - It highlights the importance of hardware upgrades, including advancements in chips, interaction methods, and display technologies, with a focus on dual-chip solutions and the integration of Micro LED for better performance and efficiency [11][16]. - The software aspect is also crucial, with trends towards dual systems for improved battery life and the development of proprietary large models to enhance user engagement and functionality in AI glasses [17][19].

2025年10月30日，商务部新闻发言人就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合安排答记者问介绍了中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商达成的成果共识 [1]。主要包括关税、出口管制、航运附加费等内容，我们认为，中美吉隆坡磋商的成果共识有助于稳定经贸关系，改善我国外循环， 也会降低市场风险溢价。中金公司总量（宏观、策略、外汇）以及行业（交运、大宗商品、科技、有色、互联网、纺服、家电）为您联 合解读。 2025.10.30 | 中金公司研究部 02 中金研究 CICC Research 宏观走势和投资机会——简评"十五五"规划建议 中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读中美经贸磋商成果 >>点击图片查看全文<< >>点击图片查看全文<< 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》及说明发布[2]，对"十五五"的地位、方针、目标、任 务等问题做了系统阐述。"十五五"具有承前启后的重要地位，达到2035年远景目标需要增长保持在合理区间。在经济新旧动能转换、地 缘冲突易发多发等背景下，未来五年供给侧创新要求更高，百尺竿头更进一步，更注重 ...

Core Insights - A-share companies' profits showed a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, with non-financial profits increasing by 1.7% [2][5][25] - The third quarter saw a significant improvement in profit growth across various sectors, with non-financial net profits rising by 11.4% year-on-year, compared to 3.8% in the second quarter [2][5][7] Performance Growth - A-share companies' net profits for the first three quarters of 2025 were 5.4% for all A-shares, 9.5% for financials, and 1.7% for non-financials [5][25] - In Q3 2025, the net profit growth for non-financial sectors was 11.4%, with a notable improvement from Q2 [2][7] - The revenue for non-financial sectors increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in profit margins [2][5] Industry Performance - The number of industries with profit improvements increased, with 48 industries (37% of total) reporting a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 20% [15][19] - The TMT sector, non-ferrous metals, and certain midstream industries performed well, reflecting the positive impact of policy shifts [15][19] - The energy and raw materials sector saw a decline in profit share from nearly 40% in 2022 to 30.5% in Q3 2025 [13][19] Economic Segmentation - New economy sectors showed a profit growth of 12.1% year-on-year in Q3, while traditional sectors experienced a reduced decline of -2.1% [11][19] - Upstream, midstream, and downstream profit growth rates were 4.0%, 10.3%, and -3.1%, respectively, indicating a recovery in upstream profits [16][19] - The performance of the consumer sector was weak due to policy rollbacks and weak demand, with significant declines in various sub-sectors [17][19] Profit Quality - A-share non-financial ROE stabilized in Q3 2025, with a slight increase compared to Q2, indicating potential stabilization after a prolonged decline [25][26] - The cash flow situation showed improvements, with operating cash flow remaining at a high level, supporting dividend certainty for A-share companies [31][33] - Non-financial companies' free cash flow to equity ratio maintained at around 5.2%, providing a solid foundation for dividends [33]