Core Viewpoint - The overall financial data in November remains on a downward trajectory, with net financing amounts decreasing for both government and household sectors, while corporate financing shows improvement, primarily driven by short-term needs [2][3]. Financial Data Overview - In November, the total social financing (社融) increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Government net financing was 1.20 trillion yuan, while household net financing was -205.8 billion yuan, indicating a decrease for both sectors [3]. - Corporate sector financing expanded significantly, with net financing of 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 584.9 billion yuan year-on-year. This improvement is mainly attributed to short-term loans and on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet bill financing [3]. M1 and M2 Trends - The most significant marginal change is observed in M1, which has shown a decline in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates. The year-on-year growth rate of M1 in November was 4.9%, down 1.3 percentage points from October, while M2's year-on-year growth rate was 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [2][4]. - The month-on-month growth rate of M1 in November was 0.8%, marking the second-lowest level for the same month since 2020. Seasonal adjustments indicate that M1's month-on-month growth may even enter negative territory [4]. Sectoral Analysis - The financing demand from the household sector remains weak, while the corporate sector is experiencing expansion. The government sector's financing is primarily influenced by the overall fiscal strategy for 2025 [3]. - Corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan in November, an increase of 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a concentrated release of corporate bond issuance following stabilization in the bond market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its policy interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% during the meeting on December 19, 2025, with limited market impact anticipated due to prior communication and pricing adjustments [2][8][10]. Group 1: Current Economic Situation - Japan's inflation has stabilized around 3% over the past three years, with a current policy interest rate of 0.50% and a 10-year yield of approximately 1.90-2.00% [3][9]. - Compared to historical data, Japan's current inflation rate is relatively high among developed economies, indicating a departure from its previous deflationary state [3][9]. - The long-term interest rates in Japan are significantly lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, suggesting a likelihood of future interest rate increases [3][9]. Group 2: Interest Rate Hike Expectations - The BOJ's potential interest rate hike is primarily driven by the need to curb the rapid depreciation of the yen [9][10]. - Market pricing for the December rate hike is already high, with an OIS market pricing of 94% for the increase, indicating that the market has largely priced in the expected hike [10][11]. - The BOJ's communication has been clear, with Governor Ueda providing strong hints about the likelihood of a rate increase during the upcoming meeting [8][10]. Group 3: Impact of Rate Hike - The anticipated rate hike is expected to have a limited impact on the market due to prior communication and the current scale of carry trade being relatively low [10][11]. - The scale of carry trades in Japan is currently below levels seen in previous years, reducing the risk of significant market volatility following the rate hike [11][20]. - The potential for currency intervention by Japanese authorities may increase following the rate hike, especially if the yen continues to depreciate rapidly [9][10]. Group 4: Fiscal Implications - Concerns regarding the fiscal burden from rising interest rates are mitigated by the fact that the Japanese government stands to benefit from inflation, which improves its fiscal situation [23][29]. - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio is over 200%, the highest among developed nations, but the structure of its debt and the currency denomination (in yen) reduce the risk of a fiscal crisis [24][29]. - The government has seen a significant improvement in its fiscal position in recent years, with a notable decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio, attributed to rising inflation and nominal GDP growth [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Content - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - The platform features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots [4]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - CICC Insight includes over 160 industry research frameworks and more than 40 premium databases, offering comprehensive industry data [10]. - The platform also features an AI search function for efficient information retrieval and analysis [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of on-the-ground research in the mining industry, particularly in Peru, highlighting the need for understanding local communities and their needs to foster better relationships and reduce operational conflicts [3][5][19]. Group 1: Research Journey - The company has initiated a video and text series called "Journey of Research" to share insights from analysts' fieldwork and market observations [2]. - The recent trip to Peru marks a continuation of previous research efforts in South America, showcasing the company's commitment to in-depth industry analysis [2][3]. Group 2: Community Engagement - The mining sector in Peru faces significant challenges related to community relations, with local poverty and uneven development leading to conflicts [5]. - Companies are shifting from transactional strategies to building emotional connections with local communities, which is essential for sustainable operations [5][6]. - An example is provided with Las Bambas copper mine, where the company has engaged with over 80 communities to establish trust and cooperation [5][6]. Group 3: Cultural Connection - The article highlights the cultural ties between Chinese companies and Peruvian communities, emphasizing that cultural connections can facilitate smoother interactions and mutual understanding [18][19]. - The exchange of agricultural practices and local traditions fosters a sense of community and collaboration, which is crucial for overcoming operational challenges [19][20]. Group 4: Insights from the Field - The visit to the Las Bambas mine included aerial inspections of various mining areas, showcasing the operational efficiency and organization within the mining processes [11][14]. - The experience in Peru is described as not only a professional journey but also a personal one, emphasizing the emotional and cultural dimensions of international business [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of addressing economic challenges in China, with a clear focus on consumption, investment, real estate, corporate accounts, and market competition as key issues raised during the Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 [5] - The policy direction for the upcoming year is characterized by "stability while seeking progress, and improving quality and efficiency," indicating a shift towards policies that prioritize effective implementation rather than merely expanding total volume [5] - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 highlighted the need for a more proactive macroeconomic policy, aiming to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, with a focus on both increasing and decreasing measures to enhance policy efficiency [7] Group 2 - Recent changes in global liquidity have impacted risk assets, with upcoming events such as the FOMC meeting and economic data releases expected to influence liquidity conditions [9] - The article discusses the potential for gold to replace the dollar as a central currency in the international monetary system, noting that the recent surge in gold prices reflects a shift in the global economic and political landscape rather than a return to the gold standard [12] - The insurance industry is projected to enter a new growth cycle by 2026, with a more positive trend in liabilities and a shift in investment logic towards valuing growth capabilities [14]

Abstract 摘要 印度化工产业近年来不断发展，受到市场关注，我们推出印度化工崛起系列报告，本篇报告聚焦印度化工产业发展，探讨印度化工产业现状、未来发展的 优势以及挑战。 印度化工产业全球地位逐渐抬升。 近年来印度化工产业产值稳健增长，根据CEFIC，2023年度印度化工全球市场份额为2.6%，位列全球第六、亚洲第 四。印度化工产业沿海聚集，整体贸易逆差较大，优质子行业包括农用化学品、染料与颜料、氟化工、聚酯等，行业重点公司呈多样化，信实工业、UPL 等全球龙头公司分布在不同化工子行业。根据NITI Aayog，印度规划至2040年化工产值有望达万亿美元，全球占比达10%-12%。 内需市场、成本优势、政策鼓励铸就印度化工产业发展优势。 印度是全球第五大经济体、第一人口大国，经济增长、人口红利与城市化进程带来庞大且 快速增长的内需市场，其中医药、汽车、纺织服装等印度优势产业在全球占据较为重要地位，有利于拉动相关化工产业发展。此外，印度在劳动力、工业 水电、工程化等方面具备一定成本优势，叠加相对温和的税率和利率，使得印度的固定资产投资所产生的回报相对较高。而印度政府积极推进"Make in India"、" ...

Core Viewpoint - The industry is expected to experience a moderate recovery in consumer demand by 2026, with varying supply dynamics across different paper types. The supply-demand balance for pulp paper remains relatively loose, while corrugated box paper is anticipated to recover first from the current supply-demand imbalance, leading to improved capacity utilization and price recovery [2][3][4]. Pulp Paper Supply and Demand - The supply-demand structure for pulp paper is expected to remain relatively loose, with a moderate recovery in overall paper demand anticipated for 2026. Although supply is nearing its peak, new capacity is expected to be released in 2025, leading to a relatively loose supply-demand balance, with cultural paper facing more pressure than specialty paper and white card paper [2][4]. - The price of pulp is becoming a key driver for inventory adjustments in the industry, with expectations of a year-on-year recovery in pulp prices in 2026, projected to fluctuate between $550 and $650 per ton [2][4][14]. Corrugated Box Paper - The demand for corrugated box paper is highly sensitive to consumer trends, with expected consumption growth rates of 8% and 4% for 2023 and 2024, respectively. The total consumption increase from 2022 to 2025 is estimated to be around 10 million tons [3][4]. - The expansion of supply has entered its final phase, with major players like Nine Dragons and Lee & Man halting expansion plans, leading to a favorable environment for price recovery in 2026 [3][4]. Raw Material Scarcity - The scarcity of quality forest and pulp assets is expected to increase, driven by global economic growth and limited high-quality forest resources. Companies with superior forest and pulp assets are likely to benefit [3][4]. Cultural Paper - The cultural paper segment is facing increasing supply-demand pressure, with expectations of a decline in profit margins in 2026 due to significant new capacity coming online and weak demand from educational materials [18][28]. - The industry is expected to see a decline in profit margins for cultural paper, with major players needing to focus on cost control capabilities, particularly in self-produced pulp [18][28]. White Card Paper - The white card paper segment is experiencing continued supply-demand weakness, with a slight price recovery observed in late 2025. However, the overall consumption remains weak, and the industry is expected to face challenges in achieving a balance in supply and demand [27][28]. - The industry is projected to have no significant new capacity additions in 2026, with the focus shifting towards cost control and the ability to self-supply raw materials [27][28]. Specialty Paper - The specialty paper sector is entering a consolidation phase, with increased competition from larger players and a potential decline in prices due to oversupply and weak demand [36][37]. - The market for specialty paper is expected to see a significant reshuffling, with smaller companies likely to exit as larger players expand their capacities [36][37]. Overall Industry Outlook - The overall outlook for the paper industry in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of improved capacity utilization and price recovery as the market digests past supply expansions and consumer demand gradually recovers [51][52].

中金公司研究部、中金研究院随同国际金融协会（IIF）调研团于2025年10月6日至10月9日赴印度（孟买、德里）进行了为期四天的深度调研，针对印度 宏观经济和金融的现状与展望，主要观点如下： 印度的规模禀赋和增长潜力彰显投资吸引力 印度是近年来增长最快的大型经济体之一，庞大年轻人口规模和较低人均资本存量蕴藏着较大的发展空间。地处南亚次大陆，印度也是地缘竞争中重要的 大国合作对象。近年来，印度作为全球投资者组合再平衡的优质选项，股指持续增长并吸引资金流入，备受瞩目。 美国加征关税对印度的影响有限 2025年特朗普政府对全球加征关税给印度经济带来的负面冲击整体可控。一是由于印度是典型内需型而非外向型经济体，二是目前加征关税多发生在货物 贸易领域，印度是货物贸易逆差、服务贸易顺差，影响相对可控，未来需留意美国可能加征服务外包税对印度优势领域的影响。 为应对美国加征关税，印度再次改革商品服务税以刺激国内消费，生产和投资延续增长势头，同时印度积极与更多贸易投资伙伴签署合作协议，有助于打 开美国以外的新市场。 Abstract 摘要 内部政策与改革有望主要贡献印度经济增长 内部改革是释放印度经济增长动能的关键因素。短期看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing objectively analyzed the development situation of the Chinese economy, addressing various concerns regarding consumption, investment, real estate, corporate accounts, and market competition order. The policy direction for next year is "stability while seeking progress, improving quality and efficiency" [2][14]. Macro: Responding to Concerns, Improving Quality and Efficiency - The conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand as a primary task, emphasizing the implementation of special actions to boost consumption and the expansion of quality goods and services supply. It also aims to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [5][6]. - On the demand side, the conference proposed a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income and optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, which may involve increasing social security spending to enhance disposable income and promote consumption growth [6][9]. - Government investment is expected to lead the way in stabilizing investment, with a focus on increasing central budget investment and optimizing the use of local government special bonds to alleviate financial pressures [6][9]. - The conference emphasized the need to actively and prudently resolve risks in key areas, particularly in the real estate sector, where it aims to stabilize the market and improve residents' purchasing power [7][9]. Strategies: Balancing Growth and Reform - The conference reiterated the need for a proactive fiscal policy while maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels. It aims to optimize fiscal spending and strengthen fiscal management [10][23]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. The use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts, is anticipated to be more flexible and efficient [11][24]. - The conference stressed the importance of innovation-driven development, with measures to enhance the role of enterprises in innovation and promote high-quality development of key industrial chains [12][16]. Real Estate: Focus on Supply Issues - The conference underscored the need to stabilize the real estate market, advocating for measures to control new supply, reduce inventory, and improve supply quality. It encourages the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [29][30]. - The emphasis on resolving inventory issues reflects a heightened focus on the real estate sector's challenges, particularly in light of the ongoing supply-demand imbalance [29][30]. Consumption: Continuous Policy Support - The conference prioritized domestic demand, reiterating the importance of consumption in driving economic growth. It plans to implement measures to enhance residents' income and stabilize employment for key groups [38]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumer confidence and spending are expected to continue, with a focus on increasing the quality and availability of goods and services [38].

中金研究 美联储如预期在12月会议上降息25个基点，但反对降息的官员增至两人[1]，显示进一步降息的门槛正在抬高。与此同时，鲍威尔的表态并不强硬[2]， 加之美联储宣布将启动短期国库券（T-bills）购买操作，帮助缓和了市场的担忧。此前被充分计入的"鹰派降息"预期出现反转，加剧了市场波动。展望 未来，鉴于经济与就业仍面临下行压力，我们预计美联储或将在2026年继续降息；但考虑到通胀粘性犹存，降息节奏趋于放缓。1月可能按兵不动，下 一次降息或在3月。 美联储如期降息，两名官员反对降息。 正如市场所期待的那样，美联储于12月再次降息25个基点。这一决策并非一致观点，共有三名官员提出不同意 见，堪萨斯联储主席施密德与芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比认为应该按兵不动，而美联储理事米兰则继续认为应该降息50个基点。与上次会议相比，认为不应 该继续降息的人数增加至两人。这表明，美联储内部对于是否需要降息分歧加剧。 明年或继续降息，但短期阻力将增加。 展望未来，市场真正关心的问题在于美联储能否在2026年继续降息。根据最新公布的利率点阵图[3]，共有12名官 员认为应继续降息，较上次会议增加1人，另有7名官员倾向不再降息，其中3人 ...