点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 "十五五"是我国碳达峰攻坚关键期，但近年来全国碳排放增速不降反升，能源结构清洁化和产业结构去重化两大转型面临挑战。随着碳达峰与"反内卷"都 已成为重要政策目标，"反内卷"对绿色转型的潜在影响尚未被市场充分探讨，我们认为未来"反内卷"与绿色转型有望协同。 "内卷式"竞争长期来看可能不利于绿色转型。 能源结构清洁化层面，内卷虽然在短期内能更快地压低清洁能源价格，但从长期来看反而会延缓其成本下 降趋势，因为利润下滑会削弱企业的研发投入能力，竞争烈度和创新绩效之间存在倒U型关系。产业结构去重化层面，内卷加剧产能利用率低和供需失衡 等，低效投资、以量补价等行为也可导致碳排放上升，特别是对于高碳产业来讲。 "反内卷"对绿色转型意味着什么？ 能源结构清洁化的关键是降低绿色溢价，在"反内卷"成功这一理想情景下，即各行业实现盈亏平衡、价格回归合理水 平、低效投资得到有效控制的假设下，我们估计 绿色溢价会从"反内卷"前的-21%下降8-11个百分点。 具体来说，煤价回升至合理水平会提高煤电度电成 本约16%，而光伏度电成本在"仅不低于成本销售"这一政策情景时上涨约4%，在"不低于成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market is expected to continue its growth in both scale and structure, with a focus on the importance of institutional funds and the potential decline in the influence of thematic ETFs in the future [3]. Domestic Market: Policy and Market Development - The regulatory environment is enhancing the ETF industry ecosystem, with various measures introduced by the CSRC and exchanges to support the establishment and expansion of ETF products [4]. Scale and Growth: Market Expansion - By the end of 2025, the ETF market size exceeded 6 trillion yuan, marking a 61.7% increase from the beginning of the year, with the number of products rising to 1,381, a growth of 33.7% [5]. - All types of ETFs experienced varying degrees of growth, with stock, bond, commodity, and money market ETFs increasing by 44%, 376%, 231%, and 11% respectively [5]. Product Structure and Trends - As of the end of 2025, stock ETFs dominated the market, comprising 93% of the total number of ETFs, while their scale accounted for 79% of the total ETF market size [7]. - Thematic and cross-border products saw significant growth, with cross-border products increasing by 120% [11]. Fund Flows and Investor Behavior - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of approximately 450 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 57% compared to 2024, indicating a "buy high, sell low" behavior among investors [12]. - Bond ETFs saw explosive growth, with a total scale increase of 376% to 828.2 billion yuan, driven by policy support and new product launches [13]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for ETFs is becoming more intense, with a decline in concentration among fund companies and products, as evidenced by the market share of the top five companies dropping from 67% to 56% [15]. Product Issuance: Record Highs - In 2025, a record 356 passive ETFs were issued, with a total issuance scale of 251.2 billion yuan, marking a 106% increase from 2024 [15]. Outlook for 2026: Growth Potential - The absolute scale of the ETF market is expected to continue rising, with a projected growth rate of 0% to 5% from new issuances, while net inflows are anticipated to contribute 10% to 30% to the growth [30]. - The market is expected to see a slight increase in the share of passive products due to ongoing reforms and the demand for tool-based passive products [31]. Active vs. Passive Investment - Active equity products are predicted to slightly outperform index products in 2026, with a forecasted excess return of 2.5% [47]. - The market is expected to remain stable or show slight upward trends, supporting the performance of active products [47]. Thematic ETFs: Future Prospects - Thematic ETFs have regained prominence in 2025, primarily driven by significant capital inflows, contrasting with previous years where growth was mainly from new product issuances [48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the US and Japanese bond markets, driven by geopolitical risks and fiscal discipline issues, highlighting the potential for systemic risks in global markets due to these factors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Fiscal Factors - The Japanese government plans to implement tax cuts, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japanese government bonds, with the yield on newly issued 40-year Japanese bonds rising over 25 basis points to exceed 4% [1]. - The announcement by Trump to impose a 10% punitive tariff on eight European countries has led to fears of a sell-off of US Treasuries, causing the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise by 5.1 basis points, surpassing 4.2% [1]. - The Danish pension fund, Akademiker Pension, announced it would stop purchasing US Treasuries due to concerns over geopolitical risks, fiscal discipline, and a weak dollar [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Liquidity - The article notes that the volatility in US and Japanese bonds reflects global liquidity fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions and fiscal policies [2]. - The supply side is characterized by increased debt issuance due to lax fiscal discipline, with the US expected to see a nearly $5 trillion increase in deficits over the next decade [4]. - The demand side is affected by geopolitical risks leading to unstable overseas demand, with overseas investors holding 34% of tradable US Treasuries, significantly influencing long-term interest rates [8][20]. Group 3: Systemic Risks and Future Outlook - The imbalance in supply and demand for government bonds may amplify systemic risks in the market, with high volatility potentially triggering deleveraging among hedge funds [20]. - The article anticipates that the US may need to increase its bond purchases to stabilize long-term interest rates, potentially leading to the implementation of Yield Curve Control (YCC) [20][22]. - A trend towards weaker dollar liquidity is expected to benefit emerging markets and commodities, particularly in the context of a potential bull market for Chinese stocks [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the innovation and competition landscape of the AI industry, highlighting the varying degrees of "Matthew Effect" across different segments, specifically in AI chips, foundational models, and vertical applications. It emphasizes that the chip and foundational model sectors exhibit strong Matthew Effect characteristics, while vertical applications show weaker effects [3][32]. Group 1: AI Industry Segmentation - The AI industry consists of three main segments: chip layer, foundational model layer, and vertical application layer, each exhibiting different innovation and competition dynamics [3]. - The chip and foundational model sectors are characterized by a high concentration of leading firms, indicating a strong Matthew Effect, while the vertical application layer is more fragmented with numerous players [4][6]. Group 2: Innovation Models - The article introduces Schumpeter's innovation models, categorizing industries into "Schumpeter Mark I" (low concentration, unstable competition) and "Schumpeter Mark II" (high concentration, stable competition). The AI chip and foundational model sectors fall under the Schumpeter Mark II category, indicating a strong Matthew Effect [5][8]. - The analysis of patent data from 2000-2023 shows that both AI chips and foundational models exhibit a high concentration of innovation activities, reinforcing their classification as Schumpeter Mark II industries [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Logic of the Matthew Effect - Four characteristics influence the strength of the Matthew Effect in an industry: convergence of dominant designs, sources of innovation knowledge, product generality, and customer switching costs. A higher convergence of designs, reliance on practical knowledge, high product generality, and high switching costs lead to a stronger Matthew Effect [4][14][24]. - The AI chip sector shows high design convergence and product generality, while foundational models also exhibit similar characteristics, contributing to a strong Matthew Effect in both sectors [26][31]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that the government should focus on supporting leading domestic firms in the AI chip and foundational model sectors, as these industries demonstrate a strong Matthew Effect. Concentrated investment in top-tier companies is deemed more effective than dispersed investments [38][40]. - Demand-side policies, such as public procurement and subsidies, are recommended to create a favorable environment for domestic AI chip and model manufacturers, encouraging the use of local products [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 midterm elections are crucial for Trump and the Republican Party, with affordability becoming the central issue for voters, overshadowing traditional economic growth metrics [2][5][7]. Group 1: Political Context - The Republican Party holds a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and losing it could lead to a divided government, limiting Trump's ability to implement policies [5][6]. - Historical trends indicate that the party of the sitting president often loses seats in midterm elections, increasing the risk of impeachment for Trump if the Republicans fail [6][7]. Group 2: Affordability Crisis - High inflation has significantly impacted middle and low-income households, particularly in housing, where affordability has sharply declined since 2022 [2][12]. - The median income required to afford a typical home has increased by 43% compared to the median household income, exacerbated by rising mortgage rates [12][14]. - The burden of debt repayment is rising, with delinquency rates on credit cards and loans nearing previous highs, indicating increased financial stress among households [13][18]. Group 3: Policy Implications - As affordability becomes a primary goal, policy measures may shift towards more direct interventions in pricing and corporate behavior, moving away from traditional macroeconomic policies [3][22]. - Recent actions by Trump include proposals to limit credit card interest rates and push for legislative changes in housing, reflecting a focus on alleviating cost pressures for voters [24][25]. Group 4: Market Impact - The focus on affordability may limit the expansion of index valuations and increase market volatility, as the government prioritizes voter concerns over asset price growth [32]. - Sectors with strong pricing power and high profit margins may face increased policy risks, while cost-benefit industries could become more favorable for investment [32][33]. - Historical examples suggest that aggressive policy interventions can lead to market disruptions, as seen in the 1970s, raising caution among investors regarding potential policy risks [30][31].

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 过去十年，中国钢铁企业的出海战略在供过于求与贸易摩擦的双重推动下逐步形成。钢铁产业从产品出口向产能出海的"走出去"转变并非偶然，钢铁历来 是全球贸易摩擦的高发行业，这既源于其经济战略地位，即上游度高、在产业链中具有关键作用，也源于行业本身的同质化、低附加值特征，使得价格竞 争激烈，并容易成为反补贴和反倾销调查的对象。在这样的背景下，贸易摩擦几乎难以避免，而国际化布局实际上成为钢铁企业应对贸易摩擦的主要手 段。 为了系统解释钢铁企业在应对贸易摩擦中"走出去"路径选择的逻辑，我们提出了基于产品单位价值运输成本与生产可碎片化程度的国际化布局四象限模 型。不同产品根据其单位价值运输成本和生产可碎片化程度，在贸易摩擦加剧时，会采取不同的国际化布局策略。基于四象限分析，当低端钢铁产品出口 面临贸易壁垒时，企业存在两类规避策略：一是通过在目的国直接投资建厂，将低端产能"出海"以规避贸易摩擦；二是通过产品升级，转向高端钢材出 口，即生产技术含量更高、同质化程度更低、附加值更高的产品，从而在全球市场中保持竞争力。 上一轮钢铁"走出去"恰好处于国内供过于求与海外新兴经济体快速工业化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the La Niña phenomenon on global commodity markets, highlighting the increasing uncertainty in pricing due to climate changes and geopolitical factors. It emphasizes the historical correlation between extreme weather events and commodity price fluctuations, indicating that the current weak La Niña may still disrupt supply chains and affect prices across various sectors [3][4][10]. Weather Outlook - A weak La Niña has been established, expected to transition to neutral conditions by spring 2026. The current La Niña is not anticipated to cause widespread cold winters due to global warming trends, but it may still influence global circulation patterns and lead to unusual precipitation anomalies [5][11][16]. - The probability of transitioning to El Niño conditions by the third quarter of 2026 has risen to over 60%, which could increase the frequency of extreme weather events [5][12][22]. Commodity Impact - Weather disturbances are expected to affect different commodity sectors in varied ways, with energy, metals, and agricultural products each responding differently to temperature and precipitation changes [6][35]. Energy Sector - In North America, natural gas prices are expected to rise due to increased heating demand, with NYMEX prices projected to range between $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the off-season [6][36][37]. - European natural gas prices are anticipated to decrease due to low inventory levels despite a warm winter, with TTF prices expected to drop to $9-10 per MMBtu [6][40][42]. Metals Sector - Heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, particularly in Indonesia and South America, leading to increased costs and production interruptions [7][49][50]. - The impact of La Niña on aluminum prices may arise from increased electricity costs due to reduced hydropower generation in affected regions [7][53]. Agricultural Sector - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to have a limited impact on South American soybean production, with Brazil's soybean yield projected to reach 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [8][66][67]. - Palm oil production in Southeast Asia is also expected to remain stable, with short-term bullish expectations despite some localized weather disturbances [8][72].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy changes in urban renewal and housing stock management, emphasizing the importance of these measures in addressing the real estate market's challenges and the need for financing support to enhance the feasibility of housing stock acquisition [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The joint notification from the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development introduces measures to support urban renewal, including a transitional policy allowing for a maximum five-year period where original planning conditions remain unchanged [2]. - The policy aims to enhance the feasibility of acquiring existing housing stock by potentially increasing acquisition prices, addressing previous pricing discrepancies between acquisition and market prices [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since the second half of 2025, the transaction volume of both new and second-hand homes has stabilized at a low level, with a notable decrease in the supply of new land and a reduction in the number of listings in high-tier cities [3]. - The article suggests that the upcoming period post-Spring Festival will be crucial for monitoring changes in natural inventory, which is vital for predicting future housing price trends [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Given the recent increase in real estate policies, there is a recommendation to raise attention towards the real estate sector, particularly in light of the positive changes in supply dynamics and the implementation of housing stock acquisition policies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is significantly influenced by seasonal demand for foreign exchange settlements, particularly in December and January, due to increased corporate funding needs at year-end [1][2][3] Exchange Rate Analysis - The RMB/USD central parity rate typically appreciates in December and January, with average increases of 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, and appreciation probabilities of 75% and 67% [1][3] - In December 2025, the RMB/USD central parity rate appreciated by 0.7%, marking the largest monthly appreciation for the year [2] - The settlement demand in December 2025 was notably high, with banks conducting foreign exchange settlements amounting to $311 billion, which is 53% higher than the average from February to November 2025 [2] Trade Surplus Insights - In 2025, China's trade surplus reached a historical high of $1,189 billion, although its ratio to GDP is lower than the peaks observed before 2008 [1] - Despite external trade frictions, China's export growth remained resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% in dollar terms [1] Financial Cycle Perspective - The evaluation of exchange rates should focus more on financial cycles rather than solely on trade perspectives, as capital flows and price expectations play a crucial role in exchange rate fluctuations in the modern financial system [3]

固定资产投资下降有所加速，稳投资仍待进一步发力。 全年固定资产投资同比-3.8%，降幅较1-11月扩大1.2个百分点，其中建安投资累计同比-8.4%（1-11 月为-6.4%），反映建筑业偏弱的态势。12月固定投资季调环比下降1.13%，降幅较11月的0.37%扩大。虽然四季度新型政策性金融工具和地方政府专项债 等部分稳投资政策加力，但是推动投资止跌回稳仍待政策进一步发力。 中金研究 四季度主要指标量价仍然偏弱，实际GDP同比4.5%，GDP平减指数同比-0.7%。全年经济增长目标顺利完成，出口竞争力改善，外需总体上好于内需。 12月单月来看，社零增速放缓，固定资产投资偏弱运行。与2024年相比，最终消费和净出口对2025年GDP增长的贡献上升，资本形成的贡献下降较 多。总体而言，2025年经济继续呈现分化态势，供给强于需求、外需好于内需、制造业投资好于基建和房地产投资。2025年中央经济工作会议将扩内 需放在2026年重点任务之首，消费与投资均待政策发力，但从内生动能来看，消费对投资的引领意义重大。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 目录 宏观：分化中收 ...