中金研究 我们展望2H25全球储能市场，表前与表后侧储能均有望迎来快速增长，2025年全球储能出货有望达390GWh，同比增长16%。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 我们预计2025 年全球储能需求保持高增。 我们预计2025年全球储能出货量将达到 390GWh以上，同比+16%，其中中国/美国/欧洲/澳洲/日本其他地区（不 含通信储能）分别为133/90/63/7/3/83GWh，同比分别+16%/-13%/+29%/+15%/+12%/+59.0%，考虑到美国市场关税问题，我们将美国2025年预测出货量从 原本的143.5GWh下调为90GWh。 表前侧储能：风光发电渗透率提升，电力市场化政策持续推进，储能经济性持续提升，我们预期2025年全球大储出货量超300GWh，同比+13%。 我们判 断欧洲计划降低对俄罗斯的能源依赖保证能源安全，将推动新能源发展带动储能需求增长。中长期在新能源装机上行、电网消纳压力下，持续催化储能需 求。我们认为美国市场短期因2026年1月起"301关税"上调，或带动2H25储能抢装，中期维度新能源+储能逐步实现与传统能源平价，增长空间广阔。中国 市场叫停"强制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the recovery of the Macau gaming industry, raising the total gaming revenue forecast for 2025 to a 7% year-on-year growth, reaching 83% of the 2019 level [1][46]. Revenue Forecast Adjustments - The company has increased the 2025 EBITDA forecast by 3%, expecting a 9% year-on-year growth, recovering to 89% of the 2019 level [2][46]. - The estimated EBITDA for Q2 2025 is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year, reaching $2.098 billion, which is 87% of the Q2 2019 level [2]. Market Dynamics - Macau is gradually transforming into a travel destination centered around entertainment performances, which may help attract more tourists [4]. - The increase in rebate expenses is expected to enhance the market size of the Macau gaming industry, with a focus on absolute EBITDA levels [4]. - The depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar may boost tourism demand from neighboring Asian countries [4][26]. Performance Analysis - In Q2 2025, Macau achieved a total gaming revenue of MOP 61.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.0%, recovering to 83.3% of the Q2 2019 level [6]. - The company expects mass gaming revenue to grow by 2.7% year-on-year, while VIP gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by 26.6% year-on-year [6][9]. Factors Driving Growth - The strong performance in Q2 2025 is attributed to popular non-gaming activities attracting tourists, the opening of new hotels, and the relaxation of rebate strategies by gaming operators [7]. - The company notes that the focus on hosting various entertainment events can drive repeat visits and attract new customers to Macau [19]. Strategic Adjustments - Sands China has shifted its market strategy to focus on EBITDA returns rather than restrictive profit margins, which is expected to drive domestic demand [33]. - The company has increased its reinvestment rate since May 2025, which is anticipated to enhance market scale [34]. Hotel and Capacity Insights - By mid-2025, all new properties and renovation projects in Macau are expected to be operational, with a total of 45,200 hotel rooms and an occupancy rate of 88% [43]. - Sands China, with over 12,000 hotel rooms, is positioned to leverage its capacity to attract overseas customers, particularly from Asia [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development of a real-time forecasting framework driven by large language models (LLMs) to predict macroeconomic indicators, addressing the inherent lag in traditional macroeconomic data collection and reporting processes [1][7]. Group 1: Real-time Forecasting Methods - Macroeconomic indicators typically experience delays due to the time-consuming data collection and validation processes, often resulting in the release of data in the following month or quarter [2][7]. - Three common methods for addressing the lag in macroeconomic data are outlined: 1. **Periodic Lagging Method**: Using previously published data, which is reliable but relies on linear extrapolation [8]. 2. **Dynamic Lagging Method**: Adjusting data based on historical release patterns, which also relies on linear extrapolation [8]. 3. **Real-time Forecasting Method**: Building models for real-time state predictions, which may introduce randomness [8]. Group 2: Specific Forecasting Techniques - The article details various forecasting techniques: 1. **High-Frequency Data Splitting**: Involves using dynamic high-frequency macro data to update low-frequency macro data predictions, exemplified by the GDPNow model. This method is interpretable but requires extensive domain knowledge and may lead to overfitting due to noise in high-frequency data [9]. 2. **SARIMAX Model**: A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model that incorporates seasonal parameters and exogenous variables to enhance predictive power. It is suitable for stable, high-frequency indicators with limited external shocks [10][14]. 3. **LLMs for Text Interpretation**: Utilizing LLMs to analyze unstructured text data (e.g., macro news, analyst reports) to generate predictive signals based on semantic relationships and logical reasoning. This method captures market reactions to sudden events more quickly than traditional models [3][15]. Group 3: Performance of Forecasting Models - The effectiveness of real-time forecasting methods is evaluated: 1. **Autoregressive Predictions**: Limited improvement in predictive accuracy for indicators with weak correlation to previous values, such as CPI month-on-month and new RMB loans. Strongly correlated indicators (≥0.8) can simply use lagged data without modeling [4][27]. 2. **LLMs Enhancements**: Significant improvements in predictive accuracy for various indicators when using LLMs, with notable increases in correlation for new RMB loans (from -0.1 to 0.9) and export amounts (from 0.37 to 0.72) [5][35]. Group 4: Conclusion and Recommendations - The article concludes with a recommended approach for real-time forecasting of lagging macroeconomic data: 1. For indicators with high correlation to previous values, use lagged data directly. 2. For stable indicators with weak trends, apply the SARIMAX model with seasonal adjustments. 3. Utilize LLMs in conjunction with news or report data for real-time predictions when other methods are unsuitable [45].

Core Viewpoint - Consumer demand in the food and beverage sector is stabilizing at a low level, with structural highlights emerging despite overall weak consumer confidence. The sector is expected to improve marginally in the second half of 2025 due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [1][4]. Group 1: Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector is anticipated to see a marginal improvement in demand in the second half of 2025, driven by government policies to stimulate consumption and encourage childbirth [1]. - The mass food segment has shown signs of improvement since March 2025, with expectations for continued growth in new consumption trends such as spicy snacks, healthy beverages, and sparkling yellow wine [1][4]. - The liquor sector, particularly baijiu, is experiencing a valuation correction due to macroeconomic factors and policy impacts, with the fundamentals currently at a bottoming stage [1][4]. Group 2: Mass Food Segment - The mass food sector is expected to see stable demand growth, with high-growth sub-sectors like leisure snacks and soft drinks maintaining innovation and high market activity [4][7]. - The leisure snack market is witnessing a shift towards health-oriented and flavorful products, with ingredients like konjac and high-protein snacks gaining popularity [11][17]. - The soft drink sector is experiencing robust growth, particularly in health-related subcategories, with innovations in products like sugar-free tea and electrolyte water [19][27]. Group 3: Channel Trends - The snack retail channel is expanding, with significant growth in discount supermarkets and membership-based stores, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [8][9]. - E-commerce channels, including short video platforms and community group buying, continue to grow, with notable sales increases during shopping festivals [9][19]. - Traditional supermarkets are undergoing transformations to adapt to changing consumer preferences, with a focus on enhancing product offerings and store formats [9][10]. Group 4: Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is facing a downturn, with demand expected to remain under pressure in the second half of 2025, although leading brands are focusing on long-term value creation [4][52]. - The impact of government regulations on consumption patterns is being monitored, with expectations for gradual recovery in consumer demand for baijiu [53][55]. - The pricing dynamics of leading brands like Moutai are stabilizing after significant fluctuations, indicating a potential for recovery in the market [55][57]. Group 5: Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a mixed recovery, with some categories like liquid milk and cheese showing signs of improvement, while overall demand remains weak [30][31]. - The cost of raw milk has decreased, which is expected to benefit dairy companies' profit margins in 2025 [31][37]. - Long-term growth opportunities exist in emerging dairy categories and international markets, as companies expand their product lines and distribution channels [46][47]. Group 6: Frozen Foods and Condiments - The frozen food sector is expected to see revenue growth in the second half of 2025 as companies shift focus to consumer channels amid weak restaurant demand [49][50]. - The condiment industry is facing pressure from external demand but is benefiting from lower raw material costs, which may enhance profit margins [51]. - Companies are actively pursuing innovation and market expansion to adapt to changing consumer preferences and competitive pressures [51].

Core Viewpoint - The transportation sector is expected to see small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks and H-shares outperforming A-shares in the first half of 2025, driven by lower valuations and higher dividends in H-shares, as well as frequent thematic market trends. The outlook for the second half of 2025 remains positive, focusing on dividend-paying stocks and those with improved free cash flow [1][3]. Group 1: Transportation Sector Opportunities - The transportation sector in Hong Kong is characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, with the TTM PE for the transportation industry at 7.6 times, compared to 10.6 times for all Hong Kong stocks, and a dividend yield of 3.1%, which is 100 basis points higher than the overall market [7][10]. - The sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic air travel demand, with a projected annual growth rate of over 6% in passenger volume and a significant improvement in profitability due to lower oil prices and improved pricing strategies [12][24]. - The logistics sector is anticipated to see a recovery driven by new technologies, global expansion, and the rise of instant retail, while the express delivery sector is expected to stabilize after intense price competition [3][52]. Group 2: Shipping and Port Operations - The oil shipping market is expected to see improved demand due to OPEC+ production increases, with a focus on the VLCC market benefiting from seasonal demand in the fourth quarter [32][37]. - The container shipping sector is under pressure from supply but is expected to see high dividend-paying stocks as attractive investment opportunities, especially with limited new supply expected until 2027-2028 [44][46]. - Port operations are projected to benefit from increased cargo throughput, with container throughput expected to grow modestly in the second half of 2025, supported by improved domestic demand [49][50]. Group 3: Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery sector is experiencing double-digit growth, with a 20% increase in business volume in the first five months of 2025, driven by trends such as small parcelization and the growth of live e-commerce [52][54]. - The logistics sector is expected to see a technological revolution that will enhance efficiency and reduce costs, leading to improved profitability and valuation expectations [60][61]. - The cross-border logistics market is adjusting to changes in tariffs, with resilient demand expected despite geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [63][68].

Investment Background - Domestic demand is currently insufficient, with the medical insurance revenue-expenditure gap widening, maintaining a "tight balance" state [11] - Tariff conflicts create uncertainty for external demand, particularly influenced by US-China trade tensions [11] - Expectations for liquidity are improving, with a trend towards looser monetary policy globally [12] - The rise of AI applications is generating renewed interest in technological advancements within the medical field [12] Investment Strategy - The "barbell investment strategy" remains applicable for the second half of 2025, focusing on stable dividend blue-chip stocks and capitalizing on investment windows around ASCO/ESMO academic conferences for innovative drugs [3][4] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug industry is showing clear investment trends, with potential opportunities along the industrial chain as China transitions from following innovation to gradual innovation, gaining international competitiveness [3][17] - Short-term catalysts include significant data disclosures and business development announcements around major academic conferences [3][27] - The collaboration with multinational corporations (MNCs) is becoming a crucial catalyst for competitive clinical data [3][21] Traditional Blue-Chip Stocks - Traditional blue-chip assets are recommended for stable allocation due to challenges in the pharmaceutical sector, including cost control and corruption issues [3][40] - Positive changes and investment highlights are expected in traditional blue-chip stocks in 2025, driven by mergers and acquisitions and innovation direction transformations [3][40] Medical Devices - The medical device sector is entering a new growth phase after a price base clearance period, with IVD devices showing global growth potential despite domestic cost control pressures [4][60] - The upcoming government policies and market demand are expected to support the recovery of the medical device industry [48][51] Healthcare Services - The core issue in healthcare services is the payment contradiction, with a pressing need for increased funding from commercial insurance to support innovative drug development [4][65] - The integration of "medicine + drugs + insurance" is anticipated to drive new growth in domestic demand [4][65] Investment Opportunities - The innovative drug sector is expected to see a surge in business development projects due to the high quality of research and development outcomes, with a focus on ADC, PD-(L)1 dual antibodies, and CAR-T technologies [29][30] - The CDMO sector is experiencing a positive trend in orders, with strong resilience in gross margins among leading companies [35][39] Digital Health - The digital health sector is showing robust fundamentals, with a relatively stable competitive landscape and growth rates exceeding industry averages [64] - The AI wave is enhancing the valuation of digital health companies, with increased attention on AI applications in healthcare [64]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the transformation of asset and funding structures in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to enhance trading activity and liquidity, leading to long-term growth opportunities for capital market institutions with high business exposure and competitive advantages [1]. Group 1: Changes in Assets - The "A+H" listing and potential return of Chinese concept stocks are expected to inject quality assets into the Hong Kong market, enhancing valuation and trading turnover [3]. - The market is witnessing an increase in new economy companies, with their market capitalization share projected to rise from 27% in 2015 to 51% by the end of 2024, and trading volume share from 30% to 59% [21][24]. - The average turnover rate for new economy stocks is estimated to be 1.3 times that of traditional assets, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.3 times higher than traditional sectors [25][28]. Group 2: Changes in Funding - The influx of southbound capital and increased retail trading are expected to drive the turnover rate higher, with southbound trading turnover averaging 2.4 times that of non-southbound trading [4][30]. - The share of southbound capital in the Hong Kong market has increased from 1.8% in March 2017 to 12.0% by June 2025, indicating a growing trend in high-frequency trading [30][31]. - Retail investor participation is on the rise, with internet brokerage firms' market share increasing from 4.5% in 2023 to 5.1% in 2025, suggesting a shift towards more active trading behavior among individual investors [36][41]. Group 3: Market Liquidity and Valuation - The average daily trading volume (ADT) in the Hong Kong market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% over the next decade, driven by both asset and funding transformations [41]. - The total market capitalization is expected to increase due to both existing companies' performance and new listings, with a historical average of IPO financing accounting for 1.9% of the total market capitalization [6][12]. - The article highlights that the ongoing optimization of listing mechanisms and the influx of new economy companies will further support the upward movement of the valuation and trading activity in the Hong Kong market [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - Despite concerns over "de-dollarization" and simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies, the U.S. stock market has outperformed global markets and reached new historical highs, with the Nasdaq rebounding 35% from its lows [1] Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. stocks have shown strong performance, leading global markets since the end of April and reaching historical highs [2] - After a brief outflow, funds have re-entered U.S. stocks and bonds, indicating renewed investor confidence [4][6] Group 2: Misconceptions about the Dollar and Stocks - There are two prevalent misconceptions: equating a weaker dollar with "de-dollarization" and assuming that a weak dollar leads to falling U.S. stocks [8] - The consensus on "de-dollarization" may face short-term challenges, with potential for a slight dollar rebound and U.S. stocks to outperform again in Q4 [8] Group 3: Impact of the "Big Beautiful Bill" - The "Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) addresses the debt ceiling, extends tax cuts, reduces spending, and cancels certain provisions, significantly impacting fiscal policy [12][13] - The bill raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to continue issuing debt to meet obligations [13] - It is projected to increase the basic deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, with total deficits including interest reaching $4.1 trillion [21] Group 4: Economic Implications - The bill is expected to avoid fiscal contraction, supporting the credit cycle and preventing significant expansion of the deficit due to increased tariff revenues [15][21] - Government credit is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, with a fiscal pulse potentially improving to 0.6% [15][21] Group 5: Liquidity and Bond Supply - The resolution of the debt ceiling will lead to a short-term increase in bond supply, with an estimated net issuance of $1 trillion in Q3 [25][27] - This increase in supply may create liquidity pressures, similar to the situation observed in Q3 2023, which could affect bond yields and stock valuations [27][32] Group 6: Future Outlook - Short-term liquidity disruptions may provide reallocation opportunities, with expectations of two Fed rate cuts this year, bringing the central tendency of bond yields to around 4.2% [38][39] - The U.S. credit cycle is expected to restart, driven by strong AI investments and fiscal improvements, supporting a potential rise in the S&P 500 index to a range of 6000-6200 points [39]

Core Viewpoint - The "Great Beautiful Act" signed by Trump on July 4, 2025, fulfills his campaign promise of core tax cuts, comprising five main parts: corporate tax cuts, individual and family tax cuts, reduction of clean energy subsidies, cuts to Medicaid, and reductions in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Contents of the "Great Beautiful Act" - The act aims to make corporate and family tax cuts permanent, adhering to the Republican principle of a "small government" by cutting social welfare expenditures [3]. - Key components include: - Corporate tax incentives such as full depreciation on equipment and immediate deduction for R&D expenses, effective from 2025 [4]. - Permanent extension of lower personal income tax rates and an increase in standard deduction by $750 [5]. - Adjustments to state and local tax (SALT) deductions, raising the cap to $40,000 from 2025 to 2029, reverting to $10,000 in 2030 [6]. 2. Economic Stimulus Effects - The act is projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $1.3 trillion over the next decade, with a deficit rate around 6% [11][14]. - It is estimated that the act will boost GDP growth by about 0.5 percentage points in 2026 and raise inflation by no more than 0.15 percentage points [11][12]. 3. Cuts to Clean Energy Subsidies - The act terminates several clean energy tax credits, including the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles, effective September 30, 2025 [7]. - It imposes stricter regulations on foreign entities involved in critical materials supply, enhancing national security in the energy sector [7]. 4. Medicaid Cuts - The act significantly tightens Medicaid eligibility, requiring able-bodied adults to complete at least 80 hours of work or community service monthly to maintain coverage [8]. - These reforms are expected to reduce federal spending by approximately $1 trillion over the next decade, potentially affecting 11.8 million individuals [8]. 5. SNAP Reductions - The act implements reforms to reduce SNAP expenditures, including increasing state responsibilities for administrative costs and adjusting benefit distribution mechanisms [9]. - It is projected to cut SNAP spending by about $186 billion over the next decade, impacting over 40 million beneficiaries [9]. 6. Increase in Debt Ceiling - The act raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing for increased government borrowing [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming mid-year earnings reports for A-share listed companies, highlighting the expected performance trends and structural insights amid external uncertainties and a moderate domestic economic recovery [1][4]. Group 1: Earnings Preview - A-share companies are expected to disclose mid-year earnings forecasts densely before July 15, with concentrated reporting by the end of August [1]. - The anticipated year-on-year growth rate for A-share earnings in mid-2025 may slow compared to the first quarter, with better performance expected in the second half of the year [1]. - Domestic consumption showed a quick recovery in the second quarter, with retail sales growth of 5.0% year-on-year from January to May, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance Insights - Non-financial sectors are expected to face performance pressures due to price declines, particularly in the upstream energy and materials industries, while the gold sector may perform relatively well due to rising prices driven by geopolitical tensions [2][3]. - The consumer sector is anticipated to show a mixed performance, with areas benefiting from policies like "old-for-new" exchanges expected to outperform, while overall demand remains to be stimulated [2][3]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is expected to maintain high growth in certain areas, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries, supported by increased capital expenditure [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on structural highlights during the earnings disclosure period, such as the gold sector, consumer sectors benefiting from policy support, and technology hardware [4]. - High-growth opportunities that are less correlated with economic cycles and external risks, such as the AI industry and sectors with strong overseas production capacity, should be prioritized [4]. - Industries that achieve supply-side clearing in a moderately recovering environment, including industrial metals and lithium batteries, are also highlighted as potential investment areas [4].