点击小程序查看报告原文 过去一两年，在传统需求乏力的困境下，全球增长若非AI的异军突起可能要面临更大压力，例如美国高达1万亿美元的科技软硬件设备投资贡献了2025年 GDP的三分之一（图表1），更不用说潜在要素生产率提升对未来增长的拉动（图表2）。 AI对股市的贡献同样显著，2022年底ChatGPT发布以来，美股Mag7[1]贡献了标普500指数84%回报中的45ppt，占到一半还多（图表3），2025年初 DeepSeek发布以来，港股七家科技龙头股[2]最高一度贡献了恒生指数37%回报中的14ppt，也占到四成（图表4）。不仅中美，2025年全球市场领跑的韩 国，日本、中国台湾等也都是AI产业上的关键链条（图表5）。 图表1：2025年前三季度实际GDP年化环比平均2.5%的增长中，美国科技软硬件贡献了0.8ppt 图表4：港股七家科技龙头股 占了最高一度恒生指数37%回报中的14ppt，占四成 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 图表2：自2023年以来，美国非农商业部门的劳动生产率已经抬升7.2% 资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 图表3：美股Mag7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "bottomless top" in the context of the A-share market, suggesting that the market is currently in a slow bull phase, which is characterized by gradually rising highs and lows, contrasting with the historical volatility of the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Significance of "Bottomless Top" Slow Bull - A "bottomless top" slow bull market supports a healthy capital market, which is crucial for enhancing China's international status, improving economic growth quality, and facilitating industrial upgrades [4]. - Strengthening the RMB as a "functional anchor" is essential for establishing a financial powerhouse, with a sustainable return rate from a slow bull market attracting global capital [4]. - Improving residents' income expectations through capital market returns can create a positive feedback loop for consumption, especially in the context of current asset scarcity [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Past A-share Market's Inability to Form a Slow Bull - The A-share market has historically struggled to establish a slow bull due to its high volatility and frequent bull-bear cycles, with only 51% of months showing gains compared to 66% in the S&P 500 [8][12]. - The market has experienced a high frequency of large monthly gains, indicating a tendency for rapid price increases that can deplete future expectations [8][12]. - Structural characteristics of the Chinese economy, such as reliance on capital formation and real estate, contribute to the "pulse-like" nature of earnings cycles, leading to frequent fluctuations [12][20]. Group 3: Current Conditions Favoring a Slow Bull in A-share Market - The current A-share market is better positioned for a slow bull than ever before, driven by the restructuring of the international monetary order and the resilience of the Chinese economy [30]. - Economic transformation and the emergence of new growth drivers, such as manufacturing and innovation, are expected to enhance the sustainability of profit growth [31][32]. - Recent reforms, including the new "National Nine Articles," aim to address imbalances in investment and financing, improving the overall market environment [39][40]. Group 4: Challenges to Sustaining a Slow Bull - Despite favorable conditions, challenges remain in the form of structural issues in the economy, regulatory frameworks, and the need for a balanced investment environment [61][62]. - The implementation of the new "National Nine Articles" and the need for improved financial hedging tools are critical for stabilizing the market and enhancing investor confidence [62][63]. - Attracting long-term capital from both domestic and international sources is essential for sustaining the slow bull, necessitating further reforms and openness in the market [63].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on three criteria: high capacity-to-market value ratio, ability to expand overseas, and the current bottoming of alumina prices, suggesting a focus on companies with high self-sufficiency in alumina amid potential supply disruptions [1][3][4] Supply Side - Global supply elasticity is decreasing and vulnerability is increasing due to factors such as peak domestic capacity in China, energy constraints in Europe and the US, and power supply issues in Indonesia, leading to a projected global supply CAGR of 1.4% from 2025 to 2030 [3][5] - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with a forecasted production of 4,430 million tons in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of only 2.4% [9] - The US and Europe face challenges in restoring electrolytic aluminum capacity due to high energy costs and tight power supplies, which will slow down recovery and limit new capacity [10][11] - Indonesia is expected to contribute significantly to future global electrolytic aluminum growth, but power supply constraints will hinder rapid capacity release [13][16] Demand Side - Global aluminum demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2030, driven by traditional demand recovery and emerging sectors like energy storage and data centers [18][22] - Traditional demand is expected to benefit from fiscal and monetary easing, with a projected decrease in the real estate sector's contribution to aluminum demand [22][23] - New industries, particularly energy storage and data centers, are becoming significant drivers of aluminum demand, with projected CAGRs of 26% and 13% respectively from 2025 to 2030 [26][30] Cost Factors - Alumina prices are expected to rebound due to supply-side constraints and policy changes in Guinea, despite current oversupply conditions [36][38] - The energy transition is anticipated to lower the costs of green electricity for electrolytic aluminum production, although short-term carbon taxes may raise energy costs [40][56] - Coal prices are expected to remain low, which will help suppress the costs of thermal power generation for electrolytic aluminum [41] Growth Opportunities - The Chinese aluminum industry is accelerating its overseas expansion due to domestic resource shortages and capacity constraints, with significant investments in regions like Guinea and Southeast Asia [42][45] - Guinea is highlighted as a key player in the alumina market, with plans to enhance local processing capabilities and attract investment [46] - Indonesia is emerging as a major hub for the aluminum industry, supported by government policies aimed at developing its domestic aluminum value chain [47] - Angola's rich hydropower resources and supportive policies are attracting investments in electrolytic aluminum production [48][49] - The Middle East is positioned as a cost-competitive region for aluminum production due to its abundant natural gas resources [50][51] Price Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to experience a revaluation as supply constraints and rising demand support higher aluminum prices, with potential for significant profit expansion [52][55] - The article suggests that the sector is transitioning from a purely cyclical nature to one that also includes dividend stability, making it an attractive investment opportunity [58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the margin requirements for margin trading in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing the market and promoting long-term healthy development [1][4]. Group 1: Margin Trading Adjustments - On January 14, the minimum margin ratio for investors financing the purchase of securities was raised from 80% to 100%, reducing the maximum leverage from 2.25 to 2 [1]. - As of January 16, the margin trading balance in the A-share market reached a historical high of 2.7 trillion yuan, although its relative scale remains reasonable at 2.63% of the free float market capitalization [1][2]. Group 2: Market Monitoring and Turnover Rates - The A-share market experienced a rapid increase in turnover, with total trading volume reaching 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, indicating heightened investor sentiment [2]. - The turnover rate based on free float market capitalization exceeded 5%, suggesting that investor sentiment is overheated, which could lead to increased market volatility [2][6]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - The article suggests that a focus on steady market progress ("稳进") is preferable to rapid increases, as high turnover rates and margin adjustments can help return the market to a more rational investment approach [3]. - The improvement in the fundamental aspects of the market is expected to be gradual, with a shift from valuation recovery to profit expectation improvement anticipated in 2026 [3][4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article recommends focusing on sectors with growth potential, such as AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage, which are entering a favorable cycle [5]. - It also highlights the importance of overseas expansion as a growth opportunity, particularly in sectors like home appliances and engineering machinery [5]. - Additionally, it suggests looking into high-dividend stocks and sectors that may benefit from policy support, such as chemicals and renewable energy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming annual review results of the Hang Seng Index series, which will be announced on February 13, 2026, and the potential adjustments to the index constituents that could impact passive fund flows significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Hang Seng Index Adjustments - Some companies meet the criteria for inclusion in the Hang Seng Index, while others may replace the privatized Hang Seng Bank [2]. - Historical data indicates that actual results may differ from predictions based on quantitative criteria, as subjective factors can influence the final decisions [2]. - The Hang Seng Bank was removed from the index on January 14, 2026, due to its privatization, and there is a possibility of other Hong Kong companies being added to maintain a minimum of 20 recognized Hong Kong constituents [2]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Connect Adjustments - An estimated 44 stocks are expected to be eligible for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while 25 stocks may be removed due to various criteria such as market capitalization and trading status [3][5]. - The adjustments to the Hang Seng Composite Index will directly affect the investment scope of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with changes expected to be implemented on March 9, 2026 [4][6]. Group 3: Methodology Changes - The Hang Seng Index Company has optimized its calculation method for the average market capitalization over the past 12 months, which may influence the selection of constituents [4]. - New criteria for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect have been established, including minimum market capitalization and trading volume requirements [4][13]. Group 4: Timeline and Market Impact - The official results of the index adjustments will be announced after market close on February 13, 2026, with implementation on March 9, 2026 [6][7]. - Following the adjustments, there may be significant trading volume spikes as active funds may engage in arbitrage, while passive funds will likely adjust their holdings to minimize tracking errors [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Content - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - The platform features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots [4]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - CICC Insight includes over 160 industry research frameworks and more than 40 premium databases, offering comprehensive industry data [10]. - The platform also features an AI search function for efficient information retrieval and analysis [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unique business model of "胖东来" (Pang Donglai), a regional supermarket in China, which has achieved significant success without relying on capital infusion or aggressive pricing strategies. It emphasizes the concept of "幸福生产力" (happiness productivity) and how it can be understood and replicated in other businesses [2]. Group 1: Business Performance - Pang Donglai operates 13 stores in two cities, generating sales of 16.96 billion yuan in 2024, with over 3 million visitors during the National Day holiday, surpassing the top five tourist attractions in Henan province [5]. - By October 6, 2025, the total sales reached 18 billion yuan, with the supermarket segment contributing over half of this amount [5]. - The company has integrated deeply into the local economy, employing approximately 18,000 people and accounting for about 6% of the retail sales in the cities of Xuchang and Xinxiang [5]. Group 2: Employee-Centric Management - Pang Donglai's success is attributed to its employee-centric approach, offering salaries up to 110,000 yuan per year, a 7-hour workday, and various benefits such as paid vacations and health insurance for employees' parents [7]. - The company has a low employee turnover rate of 1.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to industry averages of 100% [7]. - Employees are encouraged to engage with customers genuinely, contributing to a positive shopping experience and customer loyalty [8]. Group 3: Product and Service Strategy - The supermarket focuses on high-quality products and has stopped promotional activities, instead investing in product quality and supplier management [9]. - Pang Donglai has developed its own brand products, with expected sales exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2025, and has implemented customer-friendly store designs and services [12]. - A rapid response mechanism for customer complaints and a transparent approach to product quality issues have fostered trust and positive word-of-mouth [12]. Group 4: Broader Implications and Methodology - The business model of Pang Donglai has evolved into a "人本经营" (human-centered management) methodology that is being shared with other retailers, demonstrating adaptability across different regions and contexts [13]. - The successful transformation of a competitor's store in Urumqi, guided by Pang Donglai, resulted in a 286% increase in sales on opening day, showcasing the effectiveness of this methodology [14]. - The article highlights that the principles of treating employees well and focusing on genuine customer interactions can lead to sustainable business success, even in a competitive environment [16].

Macroeconomy - The argument that the Chinese yuan is significantly undervalued based on the price of McDonald's hamburgers in China compared to the US is misleading. This perspective relies on the absolute purchasing power parity theory, which does not adequately account for asset price factors and misrepresents the nature of McDonald's pricing as a potentially non-tradable good [3]. Strategy - A-share market has seen a significant rise with a 16-day consecutive increase, reaching new highs, while the Hong Kong stock market has lagged behind, with the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing a 20% decline since last October. The divergence raises questions about whether A-shares or Hong Kong stocks are mispriced, and the potential for a catch-up rally in Hong Kong stocks remains uncertain [6]. Industry - The narrative surrounding the trend of "deposit migration" has resurfaced, particularly with a large volume of deposits maturing. Common misconceptions about the implications of these maturing deposits and their actual flow are addressed, clarifying seven prevalent market misunderstandings [8]. Strategy - As the peak period for annual report previews approaches, the A-share market has shown a notable upward trend, with improved trading sentiment. Approximately 1.8% of A-share companies have disclosed their annual report forecasts, indicating potential sectors and companies that may exceed performance expectations [10]. Monetary Policy - The central bank's recent decision to lower various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points reflects a commitment to maintaining moderate monetary easing while emphasizing structural adjustments. This aligns with the broader economic policy focus on quality and efficiency, amidst stable external demand [12].

Core Viewpoint - The shipbuilding industry experienced a decline in new orders in 2025, with a stable price environment. However, the industry is expected to recover in 2026 due to ongoing demand for fleet renewal driven by aging vessels and environmental regulations, alongside China's competitive advantage in high-value ship types [1][4]. Group 1: 2025 Review - In 2025, global new ship orders amounted to 56.43 million CGT, a year-on-year decrease of 27%, attributed to high base effects, US-China trade tensions, and elevated ship prices [5][8]. - The new ship price index remained high, ending the year at 184.66, a decrease of 2.38% from the previous year [8]. - By ship type, new orders for oil tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships saw significant variations, with oil tankers down 46%, bulk carriers down 38%, and container ships up 11% [9]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The shipbuilding industry is projected to see a recovery in demand, with an estimated average of 14 million DWT in new orders annually over the next decade, primarily driven by bulk carriers and oil tankers [53][64]. - The global shipyard delivery volume in 2025 was 96.83 million DWT, with expectations of reaching 117 million DWT in 2026, reflecting a 21% increase [65]. - The order coverage ratio for shipyards is high, indicating a robust backlog that is likely to support continued order accumulation [65]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for oil tankers is expected to grow due to stable trade demand, while the supply side is projected to see a moderate increase in capacity, with oil tanker capacity growth estimated at 2.01% in 2026 [18][20]. - The dry bulk market is experiencing a shift in trade demand towards bauxite, with overall trade volume expected to increase by 2% in 2026 [21][22]. - Container shipping demand is forecasted to slow, with a projected decline in ton-mile demand due to geopolitical uncertainties [26]. Group 4: Replacement Demand - The average age of the global fleet has increased, reaching 22.6 years, indicating a potential peak in replacement demand as older vessels are phased out [29][40]. - Approximately 50% of new orders in 2025 were for alternative fuel vessels, with LNG and methanol-powered ships leading the way [39][41]. - The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) emissions reduction strategy, although delayed, continues to drive the need for fleet renewal and compliance with stricter environmental standards [39][40]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - China's shipbuilding industry remains dominant, holding 62% of the global order backlog despite a 35% decline in new orders in 2025 [47][50]. - The concentration of shipbuilding capacity has increased, with the top ten shipyards holding a significant share of the market, reflecting a trend towards consolidation [43][44]. - The competitive dynamics are shifting, with Chinese shipyards expected to benefit from high-value orders and improved capacity utilization [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continued slowdown in social financing growth in December 2025, highlighting the divergence in financing between households and enterprises, with enterprise financing reflecting policy support. The increase in M2 growth is attributed to adjustments in the bank's liability structure rather than asset expansion, and M1 growth is expected to decline further. Inflation has rebounded recently but remains high, with real interest rates not significantly decreasing, which requires improvement in employment and income conditions for households. The outlook for the first half of 2026 suggests a continued slowdown in financial growth [1][5]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Data - In December 2025, new social financing amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 645.7 billion yuan, with government bonds being the largest drag, down 1.07 trillion yuan year-on-year due to a mismatch in issuance timing [1][2]. - New RMB loans totaled 910 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan, with household loans dropping by 91.6 billion yuan, reflecting weak internal demand, while enterprise loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan, indicating a marginal rise in financing needs [2][17]. - The M2 year-on-year growth rate increased from 8.0% to 8.5%, primarily due to adjustments in the bank's liability structure, with domestic assets contributing 8.5 percentage points to M2 growth [2][17]. Group 2: Inflation and Real Interest Rates - Despite a recent rebound in inflation, real interest rates have not significantly declined, with the estimated real interest rate on 10-year government bonds rising by approximately 40 basis points in the second half of 2025 [3][11]. - The relationship between inflation expectations and actual inflation is weak, with historical data showing limited responsiveness of inflation expectations during low inflation periods [4][13]. - The improvement in inflation expectations is more closely related to employment conditions, indicating that a substantial decline in real interest rates and a loosening liquidity environment depend on improvements in household employment and income [4][14]. Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The financial growth rate is expected to continue slowing in the first half of 2026, influenced by the expansion of government debt and a low base in 2024. Fiscal policy is anticipated to focus more on quality and efficiency rather than a significant increase in total volume [5][12]. - The implied interest rate cut expectations in the derivatives market have significantly adjusted compared to early 2025, reflecting a shift in monetary policy stance [5][12].