Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for December are expected to show a year-on-year decline, with fixed asset investment continuing to decrease, retail sales growth remaining weak, and export growth slightly declining due to base effects. The GDP growth rate for Q4 is projected at 4.6%, with an annual GDP growth rate of 5.0% [2][8]. Group 1: Retail Sales and Consumption - Retail sales are anticipated to continue low growth, with a 30% year-on-year decline in retail sales of four major home appliances in December. The passenger car retail volume is expected to drop by 12.7% year-on-year, a 4.6 percentage point increase in the decline compared to November [3]. - The restaurant industry is experiencing a downturn, with the December restaurant PMI at 42.0%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is below the average performance from 2010 to 2024 [3]. Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - The decline in fixed asset investment growth is expected to continue, with a projected annual decrease of -3.0% for January to December, compared to -2.6% for the first eleven months [3]. - Manufacturing investment is projected to have a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6% for the entire year, down from 1.9% in the first eleven months [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Real Estate - Infrastructure investment is expected to turn negative, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.4% for the year. Although there are new policies to support investment, the effects may not be fully realized until early 2026 [4]. - Real estate development investment is projected to have a cumulative year-on-year decline of -16.5% for the year, with December sales showing a year-on-year drop of 27.3% [4]. Group 4: Exports and Industrial Production - Export growth is expected to decline due to base effects, with a projected year-on-year growth of 3.0% in December, down from 5.9% in November. Imports are expected to decrease by 2.9% year-on-year [5]. - Industrial production is projected to grow by 6.0% year-on-year in December, influenced by seasonal effects and increased operating rates in major industries [5]. Group 5: Inflation and Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain stable at 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices showing slight improvements and energy prices declining [6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to narrow its year-on-year decline to -2.0% in December, with fluctuations in raw material prices impacting the overall index [7]. Group 6: Financial Data - Social financing and monetary growth are expected to decline, with new loans projected to reach 900 billion yuan in December. The net issuance of government bonds is expected to decrease significantly year-on-year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing demand for gas-fired power generation in North America due to a surge in electricity needs driven by AI and data centers, leading to a favorable market for gas turbine combined cycle plants and heat recovery steam generators (HRSG) [2][3]. Group 1: North American Gas Turbine Market - The gap in gas turbines in North America is widening, with a significant increase in orders from leading overseas manufacturers expected by 2025, driven by the retirement of traditional units and the rising demand for data center power [3]. - The North American HRSG market is projected to see a rise in both volume and price by 2026, with a focus on domestic equipment manufacturers expanding into overseas markets [3]. - The global HRSG market is estimated to reach approximately $7.8 billion in 2024, with gas turbine HRSGs being a critical component in combined cycle power plants [3][18]. Group 2: Electricity Demand and Supply Dynamics - The electricity demand in the U.S. is experiencing a significant increase, with data center capacity expected to grow from 30 GW in 2020 to 53.7 GW by the end of 2024, and projections for 2030 ranging from 47 to 109 GW [4][6]. - Gas-fired power generation is becoming the preferred solution to address the electricity shortage, as it offers a shorter construction cycle, lower investment costs, and flexibility in operation [6]. - Major manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi are reporting substantial increases in gas turbine orders, with GE's orders up 39% and Siemens' up 63% year-on-year [7][6]. Group 3: HRSG Market Characteristics - The efficiency of combined cycle power plants (CCPP) is significantly higher than traditional power plants, with CCPP achieving over 60% efficiency compared to 35-45% for conventional plants [8]. - The North American HRSG market is characterized by high concentration, with B&W and SPX holding about 50% of the market share, and a notable increase in order backlogs for these companies [13][10]. - The demand for HRSGs is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.8% over the next five years, driven by the electricity shortage and the need for efficient power generation solutions [10][18]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Opportunities - The competitive landscape for HRSG manufacturers is heavily reliant on systematic capabilities, with domestic leaders possessing the ability to design non-standard parameters and leverage experience from mature projects [3][10]. - The article suggests that the rising prices in the North American HRSG market and the accelerated pace of domestic companies entering overseas markets present significant opportunities for growth [3][10]. - The global HRSG market is expected to grow from $7.8 billion in 2024 to $12 billion by 2033, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - The improvement in market risk appetite in December suggests a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on growth-oriented stocks as liquidity conditions remain favorable [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market saw an increase in risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for eleven consecutive trading days, indicating the start of a year-end rally [1] - The central economic work conference has made positive statements regarding expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to improve earnings expectations for A-share listed companies [1] Group 2: Industry Performance 1) Energy and Basic Materials - Demand expectations weakened for thermal coal, leading to a price drop of 17%, while prices for coking coal and coke rose by 4% and 8% respectively [2] - Prices for various metals showed significant increases, with lithium carbonate up 26% month-on-month and 58% year-on-year, driven by supply tightness and demand expansion in high-end manufacturing [2][13] 2) Industrial Products - Domestic demand for excavators grew by 19% year-on-year, while automotive sales increased by 3%, with new energy vehicle sales rising by 21% [3] - The wind and solar power sectors saw substantial growth, with installed capacity increasing by 59% and 33% year-on-year respectively [3] 3) Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are struggling, with home appliance sales declining significantly, such as washing machines and refrigerators down by 13% and 25% respectively [4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand, proposing plans to increase residents' income and optimize supply of quality goods and services [4] 4) Technology - The AI application sector continues to innovate, with significant growth in semiconductor sales, which increased by 25% globally and 15% in China year-on-year [5] - The gaming industry saw a record number of domestic game licenses issued, indicating a robust recovery in entertainment spending [5] 5) Financial Sector - Bank stocks are attracting long-term capital due to stable earnings and high dividend yields, with insurance premiums growing by 7.6% year-on-year [6] - The stock market's trading volume improved, with an average daily turnover of 1.88 trillion yuan in December [6] 6) Real Estate - Real estate sales in major cities fell by 27% year-on-year, with housing prices also declining, prompting the central government to focus on stabilizing the market and addressing risks [6] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth sectors such as AI technology, cloud computing infrastructure, and robotics, while also considering cyclical stocks in the real estate and consumer sectors [7] - Long-term investment in high-dividend companies is recommended, as market risk appetite improves, particularly in the non-bank financial sector [8]

Economic Overview - Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.7% [3][6] - Private consumption expenditure rose by 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from Q2 [3][8] - Local fixed capital formation increased by 4.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a rise of 2.4 percentage points from Q2, indicating a recovery in real estate-related investments [3][9] External Demand - Goods exports accelerated, with a year-on-year growth of 12.1% in Q3 2025, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2 [10] - Service exports grew by 6.3% year-on-year, but this was a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from Q2, primarily due to a slowdown in transportation and tourism services [11] Employment and Inflation - The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in Q3 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from Q2, with notable rises in the consumption, real estate, and manufacturing sectors [13] - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a decline of 0.7 percentage points from Q2, indicating moderate inflation [14] Financial Market - The Hong Kong dollar experienced fluctuations, initially weakening before strengthening due to interest rate differentials and capital inflows [16] - The benchmark interest rate was lowered in Q3 2025, while the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) rebounded significantly [18] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 11.6% in Q3 2025, continuing its upward trend, with average daily trading volume increasing by 20% compared to Q2 [21][25] Real Estate Market - The total transaction volume in Hong Kong's real estate market grew significantly, with new and second-hand home transactions increasing by 125% and 43% year-on-year, respectively [4][26] - Rental prices continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in Q3 2025 [27] - The number of new housing starts and land auctions improved, signaling potential increases in housing supply [31][32] Banking Sector - The net interest margin for Hong Kong banks remained stable or slightly increased, outperforming expectations, with credit structure adjustments continuing [5][37] - Customer deposits grew at a rate of 2.4% in Q3 2025, although the growth rate for Hong Kong dollar deposits declined [38] - Asset quality remained stable, with non-performing loan ratios holding steady, while the commercial real estate sector showed signs of stabilization [45][47]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI on global trade, highlighting its potential to reduce trade costs and enhance productivity, which is expected to drive trade growth significantly from 2025 to 2040, with global trade volume projected to increase by 33.7% to 36.7% [2] Group 1: AI-Related Product Exports - Global AI-related product exports are projected to reach $3.1 trillion in 2024, a 10.1% increase from 2023, accounting for 14.5% of total exports, up by 1.2 percentage points [3] - The top three regions for AI-related product exports are Mainland China ($633.6 billion), Hong Kong ($355.4 billion), and Taiwan ($310.6 billion), with Mainland China's share of total exports at 17.7%, relatively low among major economies [3] - The export structure from Mainland China is balanced between intermediate goods (68%) and equipment (31%), although intermediate goods remain dominant [3] Group 2: AI-Related Product Imports - The United States has seen a significant increase in AI-related product imports, driven by a surge in private sector investment in information processing equipment, with a year-on-year increase of 26% in Q2 2025 [4] - By August 2025, AI-related product imports in the U.S. grew by 27% year-on-year, with these products constituting 20.7% of total imports, an increase of 5.5 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 3: China's AI-Related Product Export Trends - From December 2024 to November 2025, Mainland China's AI-related product exports are expected to reach $690.3 billion, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, although still below the levels seen in July 2022 [5] - The contribution of AI-related products to China's monthly export growth is modest, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.7 percentage points in early 2025, compared to 1.4 percentage points in 2024 [5] - In comparison to other economies, AI-related products have driven nearly all export growth in Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, while countries like South Africa and Brazil have seen minimal impact [5] Group 4: AI-Related Services Exports - AI-related services, which include telecommunications, computer, and information services, are also experiencing accelerated growth, with exports reaching $70.8 billion by October 2025, a 13.5% increase year-on-year, surpassing the growth rate of AI-related products [6] - China is positioned to gain a competitive advantage in AI-related services in developing economies due to lower unit costs, with 81% of low-income economies using open-source AI models from China [6]

Core Viewpoint - The experience of Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s illustrates that even in a deflationary environment with real estate downturns and debt issues, policy stimulus and capital inflows can create bull markets. However, if structural problems remain unresolved, the effects of short-term stimulus will diminish, leading to recurring economic interruptions [2][9][10]. Group 1: Structural Issues in Japan in the 1990s - Japan faced several structural issues, including a declining birth rate leading to an aging population, which increased the elderly dependency ratio from 17.4% in 1990 to 25.6% in 2000, an increase of 8.2 percentage points [12][14]. - The public pension system faced significant fiscal pressure due to aging, with pension expenditures as a percentage of GDP rising by 2.1 percentage points during the 1990s, leading to increased public concern about sustainability [14]. - The real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, with residential land prices declining by approximately 52.8% nationwide and 49.2% in the Tokyo area over more than 20 years [16][22]. - Employment challenges arose as the labor market faced oversupply, with the employment rate for university graduates dropping from 81.3% in 1991 to 55.1% in 2003 [24][25]. - The financial system was strained as the real estate bubble's collapse weakened cash flows for real estate companies, increasing non-performing assets in banks [30]. Group 2: Policy Shortcomings in the 1990s - Japan's policies in the 1990s were insufficient, with a misalignment in technology direction and a reliance on short-term infrastructure investments, which constituted nearly 20% of fiscal spending at one point, failing to generate sustainable long-term growth [4][36]. - The slow response to real estate policy, including gradual reductions in mortgage rates and taxes, prolonged the decline in property prices and damaged household balance sheets [4][53]. - The slow pace of debt resolution and a lenient regulatory approach to non-performing assets weakened the financial system's resilience, leading to higher costs when external shocks occurred [4][57]. Group 3: Policy Awakening After 2000 - Post-2000, Japan shifted its policy focus towards social welfare, with spending on social security rising from 21.4% in 2000 to 32.7% in 2015-2019, contributing to sustained income growth for residents [63]. - The government began to systematically address non-performing assets, with the introduction of the Financial Revitalization Law in 1998, which allowed for significant public funding to tackle the issue [70]. - Technological policies became more aligned with market realities, focusing on key sectors and enhancing direct support for corporate R&D through revised tax incentives [72]. Group 4: Implications for Current Economic Context - Current challenges in China mirror those faced by Japan, with old economic drivers still weighing down growth. The recent slowdown in real estate and domestic demand highlights the need for effective policy measures [6][76]. - The importance of addressing old economic drivers is emphasized, as policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market are crucial for long-term recovery [6][77]. - China possesses advantages such as strong government investment in AI technology and a resilient traditional manufacturing sector, which can support exports [76]. - The need for timely debt resolution is critical to avoid escalating costs and to enhance resilience against external shocks, as seen in Japan's experience [78].

Core Viewpoint - The new regulations on public fund sales fees aim to lower fee rates, simplify redemption fee arrangements, and encourage long-term holding and the development of equity funds while strengthening the regulation of fund sales fees [5][11]. Summary by Sections New Regulations Overview - The new regulations, effective from January 1, 2026, include a reduction in subscription and sales service fee rates, a simplification of redemption fee arrangements, and a clear stipulation that redemption fees will be fully included in fund assets [11][12]. Impact on Bond Funds - The new rules set upper limits on subscription and sales service fees for bond funds, with specific rates established for different fund types, significantly reducing costs for investors [12][13]. - The redemption fee structure has been revised, allowing for lower fees for personal investors holding funds for more than 7 days and institutional investors for more than 30 days, which is a significant change from previous proposals [15][17]. Investor Behavior Changes - For individual investors, the new rules are expected to enhance the attractiveness of bond funds due to lower fees and the potential for improved post-fee returns [7][20]. - Institutional investors may reduce short-term investment demand but are unlikely to make large-scale redemptions due to limited alternative options and increased long-term investment appeal [25][26]. Market Dynamics - The new regulations are anticipated to lead to structural changes in the fund market, with some funds potentially shifting towards ETFs, money market funds, or other alternatives due to the new redemption fee structure [6][8]. - The overall impact on the bond market is expected to be limited, with a stable demand for credit bonds and a potential reduction in volatility due to the encouragement of long-term holding [9][10]. Fund Adjustment Requirements - Funds that do not comply with the new redemption fee arrangements must adjust within 12 months, with a significant portion of funds being minimally affected due to existing structures [17][18]. - The majority of bond funds currently have redemption fee structures that align with the new regulations, minimizing the need for adjustments [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 shows a trend of steady growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, driven by the restructuring of international order and domestic industrial innovation [2][10][12]. Market Performance - In 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 18.4%, while the CSI 300 rose by 17.7%. The ChiNext Index and the STAR Market 50 surged by 49.6% and 35.9%, respectively, with the CSI Dividend Index declining by 1.4% [2]. - The peak of the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4034.1 in August 2025, marking a significant recovery [2]. Market Dynamics - The market experienced a shift in investor sentiment, with individual investors actively entering the market and institutional investors benefiting from policies encouraging long-term capital inflow [2][12]. - The overall market style favored small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks, and growth stocks outperformed value stocks, although a trend towards balance was observed by the end of the year [20][21]. Industry Performance - The leading sectors in 2025 included non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics, with respective annual increases of 94.7%, 84.8%, and 47.9% [32]. - The non-ferrous metals sector was particularly boosted by rising prices of gold and copper, with gold prices increasing by approximately 64.6% and copper by 42.5% [32]. External and Internal Factors - The restructuring of the international monetary system and the innovation narrative in China's industry were identified as key drivers for the A-share market's performance [10][11]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 9.4% in 2025, while gold prices surged, indicating a shift in the global monetary landscape [10]. Market Phases - The market's performance in 2025 can be divided into four phases: 1. January to March: Initial stability with a rise in risk appetite due to technological breakthroughs [23]. 2. April to June: Resilience following tariff shocks, with a rotation in growth sectors [24]. 3. Late June to August: Rapid growth driven by liquidity and improving fundamentals [25]. 4. Late August to December: A period of volatility following rapid gains, with the market entering a consolidation phase [26]. Future Outlook - For 2026, the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by the ongoing restructuring of international relations and the application of AI technologies [36]. - The focus will be on sectors with high growth potential, including AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy, while maintaining a balanced approach to investment styles [37].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the second-hand housing transaction value-added tax and the further changes in Beijing's purchase and loan policies are expected to enhance market activity and reduce transaction costs in the long term, although short-term effects on housing prices will depend on the dynamics between buyers and sellers [2][3]. Policy Adjustments - The value-added tax rate for second-hand housing transactions has been reduced to 3% for properties sold within two years of purchase (previously 5%), while properties held for two years or more remain exempt from this tax [2]. - Beijing has adjusted the minimum social security or individual income tax payment period for non-local buyers to 2 years within the Fifth Ring and 1 year outside of it (previously 3 years and 2 years, respectively) [2]. - Families with multiple children can purchase one additional property within the Fifth Ring, and the minimum down payment for second homes using public housing funds has been lowered from 30% to 25% [2]. Market Outlook - The adjustments are anticipated to improve market activity, with a slight improvement in the total sales volume of first and second-hand homes in Beijing observed post-policy implementation, although the overall impact remains to be seen due to seasonal factors [3]. - The uncertainty in the real estate market for 2026 is primarily linked to supply-side factors, including the natural digestion of social inventory, the release of core city limited-sale projects, and the impact of policies on land supply and second-hand housing listings [3]. Investment Opportunities - Despite the weak fundamentals in the real estate market, ongoing positive policy developments suggest a need for continued observation of the interaction between policy and fundamentals [3]. - In the short to medium term, the real estate development sector requires patience, with a focus on absolute return opportunities in core assets within the commercial real estate sector and companies with strong long-term competitiveness and reasonable valuations [3].

Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 公募销售费用新规正式稿落地：赎回费率相关安排相较征求意见稿有所放松 2025年9月5日，证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》（后文简称《规定》）征求意见稿，旨在坚持投资者利益优先原则，稳步降低基 金投资者成本，该项新规中涉及赎回费率的相关安排引发市场广泛关注。2025年12月31日，《规定》正式稿发布，对其中赎回费率安排做出一定的修订， 并约定在2026年1月1日起正式实施。 至此，公募基金费率改革三阶段正式收官。 《规定》正式稿中的赎回费率相关安排相较征求意见稿有所放松。在征求意见稿中，赎回费率新规对于不同基金品类以及不同持有人类型均采用"一视同 仁"的态度：对于股票型基金、混合型基金、债券型基金和公募FOF，依据不同持有期间设置阶梯式赎回费率安排，持有7天以下收取不低于1.5%的赎回 费，7-30日收取不低于1%，30日-6个月收取不低于0.5%。仅有ETF、同业存单基金、货币市场基金等品类豁免此项规定。 而在正式稿中，赎回费率新规 对债券型基金和指数型基金新增了条件性豁免规定：若个人投资者持有指数型基金、债券型基金满7日，或机构投资者持有债券 ...