Core Viewpoint - Trump's unconventional policies are a response to escalating domestic social contradictions in the U.S., rooted in long-term distribution imbalances caused by neoliberalism since the 1980s [2][4]. Group 1: Domestic Policies - Trump's administration has implemented measures to cut government spending, such as the "Great Beautiful Act," which reduces welfare spending and increases eligibility requirements [6]. - The establishment of the DOGE Efficiency Department aims to eliminate government redundancies and promote federal layoffs [5]. - The administration has challenged the independence of the Federal Reserve and proposed a cap on credit card interest rates at 10% to lower consumer loan financing costs [5][6]. - Measures to limit institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes have been introduced to address housing affordability [5][6]. Group 2: Foreign Policies - Trump's foreign strategy includes imposing tariffs on a wide range of imports to protect domestic industries and reduce living costs [5][6]. - The administration has called for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and reduced international aid commitments [5][6]. - There is a focus on increasing military spending and pressuring allies to share defense costs [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The policies aim to alleviate internal contradictions but are unlikely to resolve them fundamentally, reflecting a tendency for short-term gains at low costs [4][5]. - The proposed changes in monetary policy, such as the nomination of Warsh to the Federal Reserve, could lead to significant market volatility [4][5]. - The ongoing financialization of the U.S. economy has led to a widening gap between corporate profits and worker wages, with the share of labor income remaining stable while corporate income has increased [9][11]. Group 4: Structural Challenges - The U.S. faces significant structural challenges, including income inequality, healthcare affordability, and educational disparities, which have been exacerbated by the pandemic [7][39]. - The political landscape shows increasing polarization regarding economic issues, making it difficult to implement necessary reforms [56][57]. - The return of neoclassical economics has contributed to the exacerbation of social contradictions, with a reliance on Keynesian policies without substantial structural reforms [60][61].

*本篇内容为原报告节选，具体标的详见报告原文 点击小程序查看报告原文 中金行业首选是通过自下而上的选股视角，由行业分析员在其所覆盖的行业中， 选出最看好的股票分别形成A股和海外中资股两个列表。 自2017年3月《 中金行业首选组合 》首期发布以来广受市场关注，为了更加聚焦且详细跟踪当前市场热点与推荐行业， 从本期开始，我们将在此前基础上进行改版。 改版后每期将聚焦市场关注和策略优选的4-6个重点推荐行业， 报告中将提供首选列表，个股与行业推荐理由与研报信息，以及组合中个股的最新表现、 目标价、盈利预测、估值等内容。 年初开门红后，2月初中国AH两地市场都出现不同程度调整，尤其是前期涨幅较大的科技与有色，主要是受如美联储新任主席提名与大宗商品波动的传 导。短期看，A股市场前期快速上涨叠加春节临近，市场存在内生的震荡整固诉求。港股自去年10月以来较A股偏弱，其追赶和跑赢的契机来自美联储能 否注入新的宽松预期、A股降温与否把资金推到港股、以及港股特色结构。本期聚焦的市场热点行业分别为 食品饮料、传媒互联网、新能源、有色、科技 硬件与机械军工。 ► 本期入选行业首选的A股共17只，海外中资股共6只。具体标的及分析见 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Japanese House of Representatives election resulted in a significant victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), securing 316 seats, which is over two-thirds of the total, indicating potential constitutional amendments in the long term, while short-term economic policies remain the priority [1][2]. Election Results - The LDP achieved 316 seats, up from 198, representing approximately 68% of the total 465 seats, marking the largest single-party representation since 1945 [1]. - The Komeito party, part of the ruling coalition, gained 36 seats, while the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, saw a significant drop to 49 seats from 167 [1]. - The National Democratic Party maintained its seat count at 28, and the Future Team party made a notable breakthrough with 11 seats [1]. Constitutional Amendment Possibility - The current political landscape allows for a potential constitutional amendment, as parties supporting such changes hold over two-thirds of the seats in both houses of parliament [2]. - However, the focus will likely remain on economic policies in the short term, as public concern centers around inflation and purchasing power [2]. Economic Policy Focus - The LDP's election manifesto emphasizes crisis management investments across various sectors, including technology, energy, and healthcare, aiming to enhance national resilience and competitiveness [2][3]. - Specific strategies include promoting Japan as a technology powerhouse, reducing dependency on specific countries, and ensuring supply chain security for critical resources [3]. Energy Security Measures - The manifesto outlines plans to restart nuclear power plants and maximize the use of renewable energy sources, aiming for a more diversified and self-sufficient energy structure [4]. - It also includes measures to regulate solar energy projects to balance development with local community and environmental needs [4]. Fiscal Responsibility - The LDP aims to achieve strong economic growth through bold investments while ensuring fiscal sustainability, with plans to reduce government debt as a percentage of GDP [4]. Market Impact - The election outcome is expected to lead to a significant rise in Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei index potentially surpassing 56,000 points [5]. - Japanese bond yields may rise in an orderly manner, with the LDP's victory suggesting a focus on responsible fiscal policies [6]. - The impact on U.S. Treasury yields is expected to be minimal, as Japan's holdings of U.S. debt are relatively small [7]. - There may be foreign exchange interventions if the yen depreciates excessively, with potential intervention levels around 158-160 yen per dollar [8]. - Global market sentiment may improve as a result of the election, reducing downward risks to capital prices [8]. Political Dynamics - Despite the LDP's strong position, concerns exist regarding the potential for overreach in policy implementation, drawing parallels to past political disappointments in Japan [9]. - Ongoing monitoring of cabinet approval ratings and financial market reactions will be crucial in shaping future policies [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services through the integration of insights from over 30 specialized teams and a comprehensive coverage of more than 1,800 stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Focus and Updates - Daily updates on research focus and timely selection of articles are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - Senior analysts are available for live interpretations of market hotspots, enhancing the accessibility of expert insights [4]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - The platform features over 160 industry research frameworks and more than 40 premium databases, facilitating comprehensive industry analysis [10]. - An AI search function is integrated into the platform, allowing users to filter key points and engage in intelligent Q&A [10].

Strategy - The price of gold exceeding $5,500 per ounce marks a significant milestone, indicating that the total value of existing gold is now comparable to the total amount of U.S. Treasury bonds, a first since the 1980s, suggesting potential shifts in the global financial system established post-Bretton Woods [3] - The A-share market has shown strong performance, driven by positive feedback from stock market performance and capital inflows, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, AI applications, and commercial aerospace being particularly active [4][5] - The current market environment supports a slow bull market, with growth style stocks favored, while low-position rebound opportunities are emerging [5] Macroeconomy - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has raised concerns about potential tightening of monetary policy, but the current liquidity dynamics and fiscal trends suggest that the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet is unlikely to change significantly [5] - The increasing U.S. fiscal financing needs and the stability of the financial system are heavily reliant on the Fed's provision of ample liquidity, especially with midterm elections approaching [5] Industry - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing rapid growth, with space photovoltaics emerging as a key area for power system upgrades, driven by the deployment of low Earth orbit constellations and advancements in satellite technology [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pig industry is entering a new growth paradigm characterized by a focus on cost optimization, collaboration with farmers, and overseas expansion as the three major benefits of capital, epidemic prevention, and pig prices weaken [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Transition - The three major benefits of capital, epidemic prevention, and pig prices are diminishing, leading to a shift from external capital-driven growth to internal cost-driven growth [1][4]. - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in the scale-up process, with a greater potential for upgrading existing resources through collaboration with farmers rather than building new capacities [8]. - The slaughtering industry is undergoing integration, channel transformation, and product upgrades, providing opportunities for vertical extension by pig companies [9]. Group 2: New Growth Paradigm - The new growth paradigm involves cost reduction and price increases, collaboration with farmers, and overseas expansion [2][14]. - Cost reduction strategies include improvements in breeding, management, and financial aspects, while price increases are driven by enhanced slaughter capacity utilization and breed improvements [2][17]. - Collaboration with farmers allows pig companies to leverage management and technological advantages, creating new profit opportunities [2][41]. Group 3: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic market is shifting towards internal optimization, with a focus on cost-driven growth as pig prices stabilize and volatility decreases [4][6]. - The average price volatility of pigs is expected to decrease, with historical data indicating a narrowing of price fluctuations from 1.3% to 0.8% over the coming years [4][6]. - The traditional high-debt, high-capital expansion model is becoming unsustainable, prompting companies to focus on internal growth and efficiency [6][15]. Group 4: Overseas Market Opportunities - Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines, have a combined demand exceeding 100 million pigs, presenting significant opportunities for technology transfer and efficiency improvements [10][42]. - The pig farming market in Southeast Asia is characterized by a mix of large-scale enterprises and smallholders, with leading companies accelerating the replacement of inefficient capacities [12][44]. - Companies like Muyuan are targeting significant growth in overseas markets, with ambitious goals for pig production and breeding stock [42][44]. Group 5: Financial and Operational Efficiency - The financial health of leading pig companies is improving, with a focus on maintaining a stable balance sheet and reducing debt levels [44][49]. - Cost advantages are crucial for sustaining growth, with leading companies achieving lower average costs compared to industry peers [45][49]. - The ability to generate cash flow and maintain high dividend payout ratios is enhancing the attractiveness of leading pig companies [49].

Core Viewpoint - Hydrogen energy is an essential means for carbon reduction in non-electric energy sectors, and it is expected to accelerate development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period due to policy stimulation, technological advancements, and cost reductions [1][4]. Group 1: Hydrogen Energy as a Carbon Reduction Pathway - A portion of energy consumption cannot be replaced by electricity, necessitating alternative methods for carbon reduction in non-electric sectors. It is estimated that by 2060, 30% of energy will remain irreplaceable by electricity, indicating the need for new technologies like hydrogen energy [8]. - Hydrogen energy is considered a more viable solution compared to carbon capture and biomass due to its advantages in industrial development and technological iteration [8]. - The national policy framework has clearly defined the direction for renewable energy utilization in non-electric sectors, with hydrogen and green methanol being prioritized [8]. Group 2: Green Methanol and Its Market Potential - The shipping industry is driving demand for green methanol due to EU and IMO policies that impose carbon emission assessments, providing a green premium for methanol [11]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) aims for net-zero emissions in international shipping by around 2050, establishing legally binding measures to achieve this goal [11]. - The EU will include the shipping industry in its carbon emissions trading system starting in 2024, with increasing carbon quota submission requirements [12]. Group 3: Green Hydrogen Production and Electrolyzer Demand - The decline in electricity prices is expected to reduce the cost of green hydrogen production, leading to increased demand for electrolyzers [4][23]. - Current production costs for hydrogen from coal gasification, natural gas, and alkaline electrolysis are estimated at 9.3 CNY/kg, 17.8 CNY/kg, and 19.2 CNY/kg, respectively [23]. - The introduction of green electricity direct connection policies is anticipated to further lower the cost of green hydrogen production [27]. Group 4: Fuel Cell Vehicles and Market Dynamics - Fuel cell vehicles are transitioning from buses to commercial vehicles like heavy trucks, with policies enhancing their economic viability [34]. - The market for fuel cell vehicles is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the heavy-duty vehicle segment, as they are better suited for long-distance and heavy-load transportation [38]. - The competitive landscape for fuel cell systems is concentrated, with a few companies dominating the market share [43].

中金研究 我们认为美联储短期或难"缩表"，但持续"扩表"与QE的门槛也明显上升。如果美联储不愿通过"扩表"支持财政宽松，一个新的临时性货币-财政协同 方式可能是美联储增加降息幅度，财政部增加短债发行，首先推动金融去监管，然后再开启"缩表"进程。美联储最终降息幅度或超出市场预期，美元 宽松交易可能在短期回归。美债收益率曲线陡峭化叠加金融去监管，利好美国银行股票。美联储或将决定黄金牛市的终点，但这一拐点尚未到来。中 国股票与全球商品只是暂时承压，静待宽松预期回归。 点击小程序查看报告原文 文/中金大类资产研究：李昭，杨晓卿 图表1：特朗普提名沃什为下一届美联储主席后，黄金、股票、商品全线回调 资料来源：Wind，iFinD，中金公司研究部 过去一年时间，AI科技浪潮与美元流动性是全球市场两大主线。货币秩序重构，美元趋于贬值，推动美元流动性宽松，是黄金与股票全线上涨、中国股票 跑赢美国股票的最关键基石（ 《大类资产2026年展望：乘势而上》 ）。如果沃什最终成功收缩美联储资产负债表，则可部分修复美元信誉，延缓"去美元 化"进程，并收紧美元流动性，会直接动摇美元流动性这一市场主线，逆转全球市场趋势。 我们认为 不宜将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights investment opportunities in the textile, apparel, and jewelry industries for 2026, focusing on outdoor apparel companies that combine functionality and fashion, distinctive gold jewelry brands amid high gold prices, and leading manufacturers with global layouts and improving customer cycles [1]. Group 1: Outdoor Apparel - The outdoor sports apparel sector is expected to outperform the industry, with brands that effectively blend functionality and fashion showing better growth trends. The market for functional products that cater to diverse consumer scenarios is anticipated to expand further in 2026 [4][7]. - The demand for functional footwear and apparel remains strong, driven by an increasing number of consumers participating in sports and outdoor activities. By 2024, the number of people regularly engaging in sports in China is projected to reach 38.5% [8][10]. - The outdoor apparel market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% from 2015 to 2025, outpacing the overall apparel market growth of 3% [8]. Group 2: Jewelry Sector - With gold prices remaining high, brands with distinctive products are expected to perform well. Gold prices have risen significantly, with a cumulative increase of 63% in 2025 and an additional 25% in early 2026, reaching historical highs [27]. - The jewelry sector is projected to benefit from increased consumer interest and spending, as the perception of gold jewelry as a store of value strengthens. The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry in 2025 increased by 12.8%, significantly outperforming the overall retail market growth of 3.7% [29][31]. - The article notes that brands with unique product offerings are likely to continue their strong performance, supported by improved supply levels and consumer aesthetic recognition [31]. Group 3: Global Manufacturers - Manufacturers with a global presence and a diverse customer base are expected to benefit from stable order sources, particularly as overseas brands in leisure and outdoor apparel continue to grow [33][42]. - The article indicates that the inventory levels in the U.S. apparel sector are low, which is expected to stabilize demand for apparel orders in 2026. The inventory turnover efficiency of major brands is improving, suggesting a positive outlook for manufacturers [38][40]. - The operational outlook for outdoor and leisure apparel brands is more favorable compared to traditional sports brands, with higher revenue growth and more optimistic guidance [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic Chatbot market is rapidly evolving, with Doubao achieving over 100 million DAU and leveraging the opportunity of sponsoring the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala to expand further. Other competitors like Yuanbao and Qianwen are also innovating to gain market share. The competitive landscape for domestic Chatbots appears to be solidifying, with Doubao's unique positioning of "starting with EQ, compatible with IQ" providing a significant advantage over competitors [3][4][12]. User Data and Market Position - Doubao's DAU surpassed 100 million in December 2025, with a DAU/MAU ratio exceeding 30%, significantly higher than competitors at around 15%. The new user 30-day retention rate for Doubao is also notably superior, indicating that its EQ-focused approach meets core user needs effectively [4][30]. - Doubao's user engagement metrics show a lower percentage of shallow users (0-3 seconds) compared to Yuanbao and Qianwen, while the proportion of deep users (over 10 minutes) is higher, suggesting a deeper connection with users [30]. Competitive Landscape - The competition among major internet companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent is intensifying, particularly around the Spring Festival period. Each company is adopting differentiated strategies based on their core strengths, focusing on user entry points and practical applications rather than just model capabilities [7][11]. - The first phase of competition saw significant organizational changes, with Alibaba forming the "Qianwen C-end Business Group" and Tencent appointing a former OpenAI researcher as chief AI scientist. Doubao's DAU milestone and its partnership with the Spring Festival Gala were also highlighted [8][9]. Product Differentiation - Doubao's unique positioning emphasizes emotional intelligence (EQ) alongside rational intelligence (IQ), contrasting with competitors that focus primarily on IQ. This differentiation is evident in Doubao's product design, which prioritizes human-like interaction and emotional engagement [14][16]. - Doubao is the only mainstream Chatbot with a personified character, enhancing user relatability and emotional connection. Its voice interaction capabilities are also more advanced, supporting multiple dialects and customizable voice tones [16][22]. Challenges for Competitors - Competitors have not significantly imitated Doubao's unique EQ-focused positioning, which may stem from strategic recognition issues or reliance on their existing strengths. The pursuit of high emotional intelligence is a complex, systemic challenge that cannot be easily replicated [36][37]. - Doubao's high emotional intelligence is a result of comprehensive optimizations across models, products, and data engineering, creating a competitive barrier that requires systemic efforts to overcome [37][38]. Future Outlook - Doubao's approach to user engagement and product development is informed by real user feedback, allowing it to adapt and innovate effectively. This strategy positions Doubao favorably in the evolving AI landscape, where user needs dictate product direction rather than solely technological advancements [28][29]. - The overseas version, Dola, is also showing potential, having surpassed 10 million DAU by the end of 2025, indicating that the EQ-focused strategy may resonate in international markets as well [43][44].