本文为我们REITs板块系列报告的第4篇，我们通过该报告梳理消费REITs基本面及估值特征，以帮助大家进行后续投资判断。 中金研究 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 什么是消费基础设施？ 消费基础设施的范畴在广义零售业态的基础上，进一步拓展至商业街区、农贸市场与社区商业等多元品类。当前，中国零售物业 已迈入精细化发展阶段，运营核心转向满足消费者需求与提升体验，消费REITs也在该阶段应运而生，自2024年以来政策密集出台支持消费REITs发展， 截至2025年10月24日，中国消费REITs已初具规模，数量为11只，市值达395亿元，约占C-REITs市场的18%。 消费REITs基本面怎么看？ 我们重点从以下维度分析： 1）宏观： 消费补贴政策已接近尾声，其对消费的拉动边际效应或有所递减，展望2026年，我们认 为消费政策仍有待持续发力，建议关注补贴方向和力度的变化及其实际落地表现。 2）市场情况： 供给端，当前我国零售供给已陆续退潮，我们认为未来 供给或向一线非核心区域、二三线城市倾斜，并以存量调整为主要特征；需求端仍处于缓慢修复通道，其中一二线城市分化。从市场表现来看，当前整体 市场租金端仍有压 ...

以下文章来源于中金研究院 ，作者郑宽 陈济 中金研究院 . 中金研究院 (CICC Global Institute，缩写 CGI)作为中金公司一级部门，定位为新时代、新形势下的新型 智库，服务于中国公共政策研究与决策，参与国际政策讨论和交流，并为中国金融市场尤其是资本市场 发展建言献策。 摘要 "十五五"作为我国经济转型与绿色发展的关键窗口期，既要锚定经济高质量增长目标，又要完成碳达峰战 略目标。然而，如果终端电价快速上涨，既可能削弱市场主体活力、影响经济恢复向好态势，也可能制约 绿色转型整体进程。当前影响电价走势的一个主要矛盾在于：一方面是新能源低边际成本带来的综合发电 成本降低，另一方面是新能源高渗透率下带来的系统成本上升，叠加政策遗留成本及市场力等因素影响， 或引发我国电力批发与零售价格走阔风险。我们测算，"十五五"期间我国电力供应成本或面临每度电约5～ 8分的上涨压力，高于"十四五"。 如何有效抑制批零价差走阔风险、守住兼顾转型与发展的电价区间，需从系统端、政策端、市场端协同发 力。一是在当前建设全国统一电力市场的加速阶段，市场监管力度不能松懈，同步做好"管疏同源"，从源 头上尽可能减少市场力的影响 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consensus reached during the China-US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations is expected to stabilize trade relations, improve China's external circulation, and reduce market risk premiums [1][3]. Macro - The reduction and continued suspension of tariffs will help improve China-US trade and support Chinese exports. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspend the 24% equivalent tariff for one year, leading to a decrease in the overall effective tariff rate from 27% to 17% by 2025 [4][5]. - The expected increase in Chinese exports to the US could be around 10% due to the lowered tariff rate [4]. Export Controls - The US will suspend the implementation of the "50% penetration rule" for export controls for one year, which will benefit trade in key areas between China and the US. China will also relax certain export controls for rare earths and lithium battery materials for one year [6]. International Trade Costs - The suspension of port fees and related measures by both countries is expected to lower international trade costs and enhance shipping demand, particularly for agricultural products [7][19]. Agriculture - The consensus to expand agricultural trade is expected to accelerate trade in agricultural products, with projections indicating a slight decrease in China's soybean import share from the US in 2025 [7][20]. Technology - The outcomes of the consultations are favorable for the Chinese technology sector, particularly in terms of tariff reductions on electronic products and the suspension of certain export control measures, although restrictions on advanced technology access remain [25]. Commodities - The cancellation and delay of tariff barriers are expected to boost short-term demand for various commodities, including copper and aluminum, while also supporting the prices of precious metals like gold and silver [27][28]. Internet - The reduction in tariffs is expected to benefit cross-border e-commerce platforms, allowing them to maintain competitive pricing in the US market [31]. Textiles and Apparel - The easing of trade tensions may help stabilize the utilization rate of textile and apparel production capacity in China, benefiting companies that have not fully relocated their production [33]. Home Appliances - The reduction in tariff pressure is expected to provide direct benefits to the home appliance sector, improving the profitability of companies heavily reliant on exports to the US [36][37].

联合研究 全球天然气宽松周期即将到来，但前路曲折，我们判断企业投资价值逐步向具备下游需求拓展能力的买方倾斜。 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 4Q25-1Q26采暖季气价存上行风险。 虽然9M25气价表现相对疲软，但我们认为4Q25-1Q26气价走势仍存在一定不确定性，其核心原因在于全球LNG产能 尚未进入释放高峰，气温及地缘政治扰动可能直接打破目前全球LNG供需的弱平衡关系（据ICIS，基于气温差异，2025/2026采暖季西北欧洲居民需求较5 年平均水平可能波动-2%-+17%；此外，虽然9M25中国工商业用气需求整体疲软，但我们预计气温走低也可能对4Q25现货LNG需求带来支撑），总体看， 我们认为采暖季TTF/JKM价格存短期冲高至15美元/MMBtu可能。 中期维度，天然气市场宽松预期加强。 向前看，考虑到2026年起在建LNG产能逐步释放，全球天然气市场或将逐步进入宽松周期，现货LNG价格存在较 大下行压力（2026-2027年LNG现货均价或下行至8-9美元/MMBtu ），2021年至今LNG现货同LNG长协间长期维持的LNG现货溢价可能进一步缩窄甚至转 负；但值得注意的是，近 ...

中金研究 美联储在10月会议如预期降息25个基点，但鲍威尔的言论明显偏"鹰"，暗示12月降息绝非铁板钉钉。我们认为，这表明美联储内部支持暂停降息的观 点正在占据上风。展望未来，尽管联储仍具备一定的宽松空间，但降息节奏可能放缓，不宜抱过度乐观预期。同时，本轮降息的刺激效应或将弱于以 往周期，部分原因在于"再融资效应"明显减弱。美联储还宣布将于12月结束量化紧缩（QT），我们认为这更多是出于技术性考量，不宜过度解读；在 政策利率仍具有较大下调空间的情况下，购买非常规的金融资产的必要性不大。 点击小程序查看报告原文 美联储在10月会议上降息25个基点，符合市场预期。此次决议中有两名官员投下了反对票：理事米兰主张降息50个基点，与特朗普呼吁联储降息的要求一 致[1]；堪萨斯联储主席施密特则主张维持利率不变。这反映出美联储内部的 分歧正在加剧 。货币政策声明较9月变化不大：今年以来就业增速有所放 缓，失业率有所上升，但仍处于低位；通胀自年初以来有所上升，仍处于较高水平[2]。 真正扰动市场的是鲍威尔对于12月是否降息的"鹰派"态度。他在记者会上指出[3]， "美联储在12月会议上再次降息并非板上钉钉，远非如此。" （ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changes in public fund positions, highlighting an increase in equity allocations in A-shares while Hong Kong stocks saw a slight decrease. The overall market sentiment improved, leading to a significant rise in A-share indices and public fund performance in Q3 2025 [3][4]. Fund Position Changes - In Q3 2025, A-shares experienced a rise in overall performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 12.7%. The ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index saw substantial gains of 50.4% and 49%, respectively [3]. - Public fund assets expanded, with total assets rising from 36.7 trillion yuan to 38.1 trillion yuan. Equity assets increased from 7.2 trillion yuan to 9 trillion yuan, raising the equity proportion to 23.6% [3][4]. Active Equity Fund Insights - Active equity funds saw their total asset value increase from 2.6 trillion yuan to 3.1 trillion yuan, with stock assets rising to 2.8 trillion yuan and a position increase to 88.4%. A-share positions rose from 70.6% to 71.7%, although this remains low compared to the past decade [4][6]. - The net redemption scale for active equity funds expanded to 212.1 billion yuan, while passive fund scales continued to rise. New active equity funds issued 54.85 billion units, a 51% increase from the previous quarter [4][6]. Sector Allocation Trends - The concentration of holdings in leading companies increased, with the top 100 companies' market value share rising from 52.2% to 60.3%. The top 50 companies' share increased from 40.1% to 47.7% [6]. - There was a notable increase in allocations to the electronics, communication, and power equipment sectors, while reductions were seen in consumer and financial sectors. The electronics and communication sectors saw increases of 6.7 and 4 percentage points, respectively [7][8]. Market Outlook - The article suggests that the growth style in the market is expected to outperform in the medium term, supported by macroeconomic policies and capital market development. The recent market adjustments may be nearing an end, with a potential recovery in A-share performance anticipated [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, aligning with market expectations, and announced the cessation of balance sheet reduction starting December 1 to prevent liquidity shocks [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was widely anticipated, with the CME futures indicating a nearly 100% probability of a rate cut prior to the meeting [2][4]. - Powell noted increasing internal divisions regarding whether to continue rate cuts in December, suggesting a more hawkish stance [2][3]. Employment and Inflation Data - The job market is showing signs of slowing, with the ADP report indicating a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below market expectations [3][4]. - The September CPI data came in lower than expected, alleviating concerns about inflation, which facilitated the rate cut [4][5]. Balance Sheet and Liquidity Concerns - The Fed's decision to halt balance sheet reduction is aimed at avoiding a repeat of the 2019 liquidity crisis, as current liquidity conditions are tightening [7][8]. - Recent indicators of tightening liquidity include rising repo rates and a significant drop in the usage of overnight reverse repos [7][8]. Future Rate Path and Economic Implications - The Fed may have room for three more rate cuts, with the timing dependent on government shutdown developments and economic data [14][15]. - The potential new Fed chair could introduce uncertainty into future rate decisions, with candidates leaning towards more dovish policies [16]. Market Reactions and Asset Implications - The market's expectation of a pause in rate cuts may dampen "easing trades" in the short term, while "recovery trades" could gain traction as Fed easing supports traditional private demand sectors [20][26]. - The outlook for U.S. equities remains optimistic, with expectations of a gradual recovery in the credit cycle, while the dollar may strengthen slightly in Q4 [20][26].

Macro Perspective - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a crucial transitional phase towards achieving the 2035 modernization goals, with a target GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% annually from 2026 to 2035 to double the economic output compared to 2020 levels [3][4] - The new environment presents several changes, including breakthroughs in technological innovation, a downward adjustment in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical conflicts, necessitating a focus on supply-side optimization and domestic demand [4][5] Technological Innovation and Industrial Development - The construction of a modern industrial system is emphasized as the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and security within the industrial chain [5][6] - The plan highlights the importance of traditional industries while also fostering emerging sectors such as new energy, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing, with specific attention to future industries like quantum technology and hydrogen energy [6][7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The plan aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, focusing on both supply-side and demand-side measures to stimulate consumption [9][10] - Key policies include improving the consumption system, enhancing infrastructure for consumer services, and expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services [9][10] Open Economy and International Cooperation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a more proactive and autonomous approach to opening up the economy, with a focus on expanding market access and promoting balanced trade development [12][13] - Financial openness is highlighted as a critical area, with a goal to enhance the international status of the Chinese currency and improve the capital account [13][14] Green Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption and implementing a dual control system for carbon emissions [16][17] - The expansion of the national carbon market and promotion of green consumption are also key components of the strategy [17][18] Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, including optimizing the tax structure and increasing public service spending [18][19] - The plan aims to improve the social security system and reduce reliance on general budget subsidies, thereby enhancing fiscal sustainability [19][20] Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [37] - Key sectors to watch include digital technology, high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, with a focus on innovation and quality upgrades [38]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Financial Street Forum emphasizes the positive outlook for China's capital market, highlighting the ongoing institutional reforms and support policies that will drive high-quality development in the sector [2][5]. Group 1: Capital Market Development - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), Wu Qing, noted that China's capital market faces new challenges but also presents new opportunities due to the restructuring of international economic and trade orders, which has increased the vulnerability of global financial markets [2]. - The forum proposed several supportive policies to enhance market inclusivity and adaptability, including the deepening of the ChiNext reform to better align with the characteristics of emerging industries and innovative enterprises [2][3]. - The CSRC aims to promote the high-quality development of the Beijing Stock Exchange and improve the differentiated listing, information disclosure, and trading systems of the New Third Board [2][3]. Group 2: Market Stability and Governance - The CSRC plans to introduce a refinancing framework to enhance the flexibility and convenience of listed companies' refinancing, thereby improving resource allocation efficiency in the capital market [3]. - Emphasis will be placed on improving corporate governance and increasing dividend payouts and share buybacks to enhance transparency and investor confidence [3]. - The CSRC aims to strengthen the monitoring of cross-market, cross-industry, and cross-border risks while enhancing investor protection measures [4]. Group 3: Internationalization and Attractiveness - The CSRC officially launched the "Qualified Foreign Investor System Optimization Work Plan," which includes optimizing access management and expanding investment scope to attract long-term foreign capital [3]. - The plan aims to enhance the global attractiveness of Chinese assets and facilitate the practical cooperation between mainland and Hong Kong markets [3]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - The forum conveys a positive signal for the long-term and steady development of China's capital market, supported by government emphasis on capital market growth and the ongoing global monetary system restructuring [5]. - The current market conditions, including fundamental support and reasonable valuation levels, suggest that China's capital market is well-positioned for sustainable growth [5].

Group 1: AI Applications and Trends - The penetration and trust in AI applications among companies are increasing, with significant contributions to cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Typical applications include coding, customer service, and business process assistance [3] - Early adopters of AI are transitioning from trial phases to large-scale deployments, with cloud vendors and large model developers focusing on vertical industry transformations to enhance user engagement and value [3][15] - AI applications are becoming more specialized, with startups emerging around professional scenarios such as law, finance, and healthcare, creating industry-specific solutions that form closed commercial models [3][18] Group 2: Reindustrialization in the U.S. - The reindustrialization process in the U.S. is seen as a long-term decision, with gradual rather than abrupt growth in manufacturing output. Current investments are primarily in brownfield expansions and modernization [4][20] - Factors affecting the pace of reindustrialization include labor costs and supply chain support, with U.S. average labor costs being approximately five times that of China [4][23] - The demand for data centers is strong, while investments in logistics and consumer goods manufacturing remain stable, indicating a cautious approach in sectors like automotive [4][22] Group 3: Consumer Market Dynamics - The U.S. consumer market is experiencing a downgrade trend, particularly among low-income groups affected by inflation, leading to a shift in purchasing behavior towards essential goods [6][41] - Companies are employing strategies such as product innovation, supply chain optimization, and flexible pricing to maintain resilience in the face of consumer demand challenges [6][42] - The impact of tariffs has not fully translated to consumers yet, with companies adopting selective price increases rather than broad-based hikes [6][44] Group 4: Manufacturing and Labor Market Challenges - The U.S. manufacturing sector is undergoing structural changes, with a focus on rebuilding complete supply chains and improving efficiency through technology [20][23] - Labor shortages and high costs are significant challenges, with skilled labor being particularly scarce, impacting the speed of capacity ramp-up [30][31] - Automation and AI are increasingly being integrated into manufacturing processes to enhance productivity and reduce reliance on skilled labor [34][35] Group 5: AI in Manufacturing - AI technology is deeply penetrating the U.S. manufacturing sector, from design and development to production and operations, becoming a key factor in addressing labor cost pressures [34] - Companies are leveraging AI to optimize production data and enhance operational efficiency, with examples of AI applications in various manufacturing processes [34][35] - The integration of AI in manufacturing faces challenges related to data quality, cost, and ecosystem collaboration, which need to be addressed for further advancement [35]