Core Viewpoint - The wealth management industry is expected to achieve unexpected growth in 2025, driven by deposit migration and the release of existing floating profits, while facing valuation adjustment pressures in 2026 [2] Group 1: Resident Risk Preference Insights - In 2026, residents are expected to show a slight increase in risk appetite, leading to a trend of more liquid deposits and asset management products [4] - The average decline in retail deposit rates in 2025 was approximately 30 basis points, with a significant slowdown in new fixed-term deposits, while demand for liquid deposits and wealth management products increased [4] - A total of 32 trillion yuan in fixed-term deposits will mature in 2026, with a repricing range of 70-170 basis points, indicating potential for further deposit migration [4][19] Group 2: Fund Flow from Excess Savings - From 2020 to 2025, an excess savings of 14.4 trillion yuan was generated, with a projected decrease in the savings rate to around 14.6% in 2025 [5][26] - A 1 percentage point decrease in the savings rate could release approximately 0.9 trillion yuan into wealth management, funds, insurance, and real estate [5][26] - The potential for an additional 2-4 trillion yuan in activated funds flowing into non-fixed deposit investments in 2026 is anticipated [5][26] Group 3: Wealth Management Asset Allocation Outlook - The wealth management industry is expected to see a growth rate of 8% in 2026, expanding by 2.6 trillion yuan to reach 36 trillion yuan, despite challenges from valuation adjustments [29] - Low-volatility fixed-income products will remain the core offering, while the growth of rights-based wealth management products is expected to accelerate [30][31] - The supply of long-term closed-end wealth management products is anticipated to increase due to the need for stable liabilities and the development of retirement financial products [36] Group 4: Market Impact and Fund Inflows - Wealth management institutions are projected to increase their equity asset allocation by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3% in 2026, potentially bringing nearly 1 trillion yuan in incremental funds to the capital market [6][39] - The demand for bond ETFs and rights-based funds is expected to grow rapidly, driven by external collaborations and the need for wealth management institutions to enhance returns [6][39] - The third phase of public fund fee reform may lead to increased allocation of bond ETFs by wealth management institutions, while short-term pure bond funds may face redemption pressures [6][39] Group 5: Supply-Side Reform Opportunities - The supply-side reform in wealth management is accelerating, with smaller banks exiting the wealth management business, creating opportunities for leading institutions to increase market share [49] - The market share of the top five wealth management institutions is expected to rise as regulatory tightening continues to limit the issuance of new wealth management licenses [49]

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage industry is experiencing sustained demand growth, as indicated by recent data on battery production, project approvals, and system installations, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector in the short term [4][5]. Demand Side Analysis - In December, global battery production reached 172.59 GWh, with domestic production at 148.84 GWh, indicating strong demand despite the seasonal downturn [4][5]. - China saw a significant increase in energy storage installations, with 3.21 GW/8.82 GWh added in November, a month-on-month increase of 18% [4]. - North America is expected to see a substantial increase in large-scale storage installations, with projected growth of 61% year-on-year, reaching 18 GW in 2025 [4]. - In Europe, major markets like Germany, Italy, and the UK have sufficient approved and under-construction projects to support growth in installations next year [4]. Competitive Landscape - The competition among global energy storage system manufacturers is intensifying, leading to a dilution of market share among top players [5]. - The market concentration ratio (CR5) for large-scale storage systems is projected to decrease from 62% in 2023 to 45% in early 2025, indicating increased competition [5]. - Major manufacturers are expected to see significant growth in shipments in Q4 and next year, driven by high demand and large project backlogs [5]. Pricing Trends - Battery cell prices and energy storage system prices have shown an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased demand [41]. - The price of lithium carbonate has risen by 20% year-to-date, while the price of 314Ah battery cells has increased by approximately 7% [41]. - Despite rising prices, the overall trend in energy storage system pricing has been downward due to competitive pressures and cost reductions [46]. Regional Insights - In the U.S., large-scale storage projects are expected to continue growing, with a cumulative installed capacity of 39 GW by October 2025, and an anticipated addition of 10 GW in the first ten months of the year [19]. - In Europe, the market is shifting from residential storage to large-scale and commercial storage, with expectations of a 36% increase in overall storage installations in 2025 [26]. - Emerging markets are seeing a rise in storage demand driven by policy support and the need for reliable electricity supply, particularly in regions like the Middle East and Latin America [39]. Future Outlook - The energy storage sector is expected to maintain a high level of demand in 2026, supported by ongoing energy transition trends and significant project pipelines in major markets [88]. - The anticipated growth in AI data center projects is likely to further boost storage demand, particularly in North America [88].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving role of gold in the international monetary system, suggesting that while gold is being revalued, it cannot replace the functions of fiat currencies in modern finance. The decline of the dollar's dominance is leading to a fragmented and diversified monetary landscape, with gold serving as a store of value and a hedge against risks, rather than a return to the gold standard [2][3]. Historical Context - Gold was central to the international monetary system during the gold standard era, which facilitated unprecedented global economic prosperity. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar became the dominant currency due to its strong financial market and sovereign credit. However, recent geopolitical events and rising U.S. debt have led to a reassessment of the dollar's safety, prompting a renewed interest in gold [2][4]. Gold's Dual Attributes - Gold possesses both monetary and commodity attributes. Historically, it served as a natural currency due to its physical scarcity. In the modern era, it has transitioned to an alternative asset with strategic reserve, inflation-hedging, and risk-hedging functions. Its unique duality allows it to play a significant role in financial markets and the international monetary system [4][5]. Monetary Properties of Gold - Gold retains its monetary properties, acting as a natural choice for a currency. Its demand is inversely related to the dollar's strength, with gold prices typically rising when the dollar weakens. This relationship underscores gold's role as a hedge against the risks associated with fiat currencies [5][6]. Investment Value of Gold - Despite not yielding interest, gold exhibits investment value due to its historical perception as a valuable asset. Its price is influenced by market consensus rather than intrinsic value, leading to debates about its true worth. The speculative nature of gold investment is highlighted by the "Greater Fool Theory," where investors buy gold based on the belief that others will pay more for it in the future [10][11]. Recent Trends in Gold Pricing - The article notes a decoupling of gold prices from U.S. Treasury yields, particularly since 2022, raising questions about the traditional relationship between gold and real interest rates. Despite rising interest rates, gold prices have increased, suggesting a shift in how gold is valued in the context of a fragmented international monetary system [13][14]. Central Bank Demand for Gold - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have significantly increased their gold reserves as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with fiat currencies. This trend reflects a growing desire to diversify away from traditional reserve currencies, with countries like Russia, China, Turkey, and India leading in gold accumulation [6][18]. Future of the International Monetary System - The article concludes that while there is a nostalgic yearning for a return to the gold standard, the current geopolitical and economic landscape makes such a return impractical. Instead, the international monetary system is likely to evolve towards a more diversified structure, moving away from a singular reliance on the dollar [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to experience a significant supply-demand reversal in 2026, transitioning into a state of supply shortage, with an anticipated passenger load factor reaching 87% [2][40][44] Supply - The effective supply will remain tight in 2026, with an expected ASK growth rate of 2.7%. Boeing and Airbus are recovering production capacity slowly, currently at about 70% of pre-pandemic levels, and global supply chain issues, particularly with engine quality, persist [4][18] - The delivery volume from COMAC is expected to decline significantly in 2025 due to global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, limiting the short-term impact of domestic aircraft on industry capacity [7][20] - Engine issues are affecting the availability of aircraft, with an increase in grounded planes expected in 2026 due to technical and quality problems with mainstream engines [9][11] Demand - Demand remains resilient, with an expected growth rate of about 5% in 2026, constrained by supply limitations. The return of business travelers is expected to support this growth [22][36] - The domestic aviation demand growth rate is still higher than that of rail, indicating strong resilience and some irreplaceable demand for air travel [25][30] Ticket Prices - Ticket prices are projected to increase moderately in 2026, approaching 2019 levels, with seasonal fluctuations expected. The price increase in the off-peak season may exceed that of the peak season due to tighter supply [45][48]

得益于内需强劲、投资逐步复苏以及大宗商品价格利好，印尼经济有望在2026年实现加速增长，官方预测GDP增速区间为5.4%至6%。我们建议政策制定 者优先关注以下方面：1）通过拓宽信贷渠道与加强收入支持，重振家庭消费；2）破除投资壁垒；3）加速人力资本建设以提升生产率。 ► 在战略性赤字与财政收入刺激之间寻求平衡： 2026年财政政策应优先着眼于战略灵活性与高质量支出。关键举措包括：扩大税基以降低对资源的依 赖，战略性调整支出结构、将资金重新配置至基础设施与人力资本等高乘数投资领域，同时探索转向周期性平均赤字目标机制，以增强政策应对能力。 中金研究 本报告阐述了我们对印尼经济的2026年展望。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 2025年回顾：以改革锻造韧性 面对多重阻力与政治过渡期，印尼经济在2025年仍展现韧性，三季度GDP同比增速小幅放缓至5.04%。经济发展得益于财政刺激、强劲出口表现以及政府 消费支撑，货币政策则从宽松转向以维持汇率稳定为主。2025年亦见证了主权财富基金Danantara的启动。该基金已开始向下游化产业、粮食安全及电动 汽车（EV）等领域投放资本，为其在2026年发挥更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tungsten price has experienced a significant increase, reaching 351,000 yuan/ton by December 5, 2025, marking a year-to-date increase of 147% [2][4]. The company maintains a bullish outlook on the tungsten price market. Group 1: Price Transmission to Downstream - The transmission of tungsten prices to APT and tungsten powder has been smooth, with processing fees significantly increasing compared to the beginning of the year [4][10]. - Downstream companies have successfully passed on price increases through product pricing and new product launches, leading to continuous improvement in gross margins [4][10]. - APT and tungsten powder prices have risen to 510,500 yuan/ton and 815 yuan/kg respectively, with year-to-date increases of 143% and 159% [10][12]. Group 2: Inventory Situation in the Industry Chain - Producer inventories have been reduced to historically low levels, with APT and tungsten carbide producer inventories at 800 tons and 1,027 tons, reflecting decreases of 31% and 36% respectively [21][22]. - Downstream enterprises have shown no significant accumulation of raw material inventories, indicating a strong support for replenishment demand in the future [26][28]. Group 3: Export Policy Impact - The export policy implemented in February has had a limited impact on the total export volume of tungsten products, with a shift towards higher value-added products [29][32]. - The export volume of tungsten products in the first ten months of 2025 totaled 15,792 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.2% [32][33]. - The proportion of affected tungsten products in exports has decreased significantly, with ammonium paratungstate and non-rolled tungsten products showing notable growth in export volume [32][33]. Group 4: Global Supply Dynamics - The global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight due to declining ore grades and stricter regulations in domestic production [5][37]. - The only significant overseas supply increase is anticipated from Kazakhstan, while other regions face slow development [5][37]. - The strategic value of tungsten is becoming increasingly prominent, leading to heightened interest and investment in tungsten resources globally [51][52]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company expects tungsten prices to continue to run strong in the short term, supported by low inventory levels and a positive price transmission effect [55]. - Long-term projections indicate a persistent supply-demand gap, with global tungsten production expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.49% from 2023 to 2028 [56][58]. - The strategic value of tungsten is expected to drive continued investment and development in the industry, particularly in high-end applications [58].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese large-scale energy storage industry is transitioning from "policy-driven" to "market-driven," with clearer business models and diversified application scenarios, entering a new phase of large-scale and high-quality development [2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Data - The domestic new energy storage bidding scale reached 205.30 GWh from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with central and state-owned enterprises' procurement scale increasing by 61% [4]. - The supply side of leading battery manufacturers is nearing full capacity, and the tight supply-demand situation is expected to continue until the second quarter of 2026 [4]. - The theoretical installation space for independent energy storage is estimated to be around 158 GW/634 GWh for 2026-2027, supported by declining electricity costs on the generation side [5]. Group 2: Business Model Evolution - Before the "Document 136," the value of energy storage was primarily derived from "obtaining renewable energy project permits," with low utilization rates [6]. - After the "Document 136," independent energy storage can realize its true value through "peak-valley price arbitrage + capacity market + ancillary services," with internal rates of return (IRR) exceeding 10% in regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [4][5]. - The capacity price policy has led to a short-term rush for installations, with independent energy storage expected to benefit from this policy window [5]. Group 3: Capacity Compensation Mechanism - The capacity compensation mechanism is gradually replacing the previous capacity leasing price, with provinces like Inner Mongolia and Gansu already implementing compensation standards [15]. - The compensation standards vary, with Gansu setting a preliminary compensation of 330 yuan/kW·year, while Inner Mongolia compensates based on actual discharge [15]. - The establishment of a capacity compensation mechanism aims to create stable price signals to guide investment in flexible resources like energy storage [15]. Group 4: Auxiliary Services Market - The auxiliary services market is evolving from single peak and frequency regulation to a more diversified and market-oriented approach [18]. - Independent energy storage currently participates mainly in frequency regulation services, with significant compensation in provinces like Guangdong and Shanxi [20]. - As the auxiliary services market develops, energy storage is expected to expand its participation to include backup and ramping services, providing additional revenue streams [20]. Group 5: Economic Viability of Independent Energy Storage - The economic viability of independent energy storage projects is influenced by peak-valley price differences, capacity compensation, and ancillary service revenues [21]. - Initial calculations indicate that the capital IRR for independent energy storage in regions like Inner Mongolia can reach up to 37.3%, primarily driven by capacity compensation [24]. - The sensitivity of capital IRR to capacity compensation levels and duration is significant, with longer compensation periods enhancing project attractiveness [25].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a year of upward fluctuations since September 2024, necessitating a focus on preventing market volatility. A methodology for identifying market "tops" has been developed, complementing previous research on "bottom" identification, to form a "stable market" monitoring framework. Current market conditions are deemed relatively healthy, with reasonable valuations and no fundamental changes in the underlying logic for upward movement [2][4]. Group 1: Market Stability and Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment for capital market stability is evolving, with recent statements from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizing the need for a long-term stability mechanism to prevent significant market fluctuations [3]. - The construction of a "stable market" mechanism is seen as essential for achieving high-quality development in China's capital markets and better serving the real economy [3]. Group 2: Historical Market Cycles - Since the stock reform in 2005, the A-share market has undergone five significant cyclical transitions, with notable upward phases occurring from June 2005 to October 2007, October 2008 to November 2010, December 2012 to June 2015, January 2016 to January 2018, and January 2019 to December 2021 [5]. - The characteristics of these cycles indicate that most upward phases align closely with improvements in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, except for the 2013-2015 period, which was primarily driven by policy and liquidity [5]. Group 3: Methodology for Identifying Market Tops - The methodology for identifying market tops includes analyzing macroeconomic fundamentals, corporate earnings expectations, policy changes, valuation metrics, liquidity conditions, and investor behavior [8]. - Historical data shows that significant market tops are often accompanied by a combination of these signals, particularly macroeconomic and policy indicators, which are deemed primary signals, while valuation and liquidity metrics serve as auxiliary signals [53][55]. Group 4: Key Indicators and Signals - Key indicators for identifying potential market tops include changes in financial data such as M1 growth, PMI trends, and external macroeconomic shocks, which can significantly impact market sentiment [8][16]. - The analysis of corporate earnings cycles indicates that market tops often precede earnings peaks, with a typical lead time of 1-3 quarters, making it challenging to predict tops based solely on earnings data [16][20]. Group 5: Current Market Assessment - The current market score based on the developed monitoring framework is 22 points, indicating a low likelihood of a market top at this stage, as historical tops typically score above 60 points [57]. - Despite some signs of overheating in trading sentiment, such as high turnover rates and margin trading levels, there has not been a significant outflow of capital, suggesting that the market remains supported by underlying fundamentals [58].

中金研究 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作[1]。会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，"实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给"，并将"内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。我们认为在国内供求矛盾比较突出、外围环境仍 有挑战的背景下，明年总量政策或将适度加力，财政货币也可能加大协同以提升治理效能。我们认为结构方面的政策可能"增减"并行，既做加法，也 做减法，以改善政策效率，既提振需求，也改善供给，以实现合理增长。 点击小程序查看报告原文 供求失衡现象仍然比较突出。 一方面，金融周期下行调整，资源配置优化，供给能力得到增强，绿色经济和人工智能产业规模效应显现、出口在贸易摩 擦下持续展现韧性都是供给端竞争力提升的体现。另一方面，周期和结构调整带来需求不足，金融周期下行调整通过明斯基的财富效应以及费雪债务-低 通胀等效应制约国内需求。结构优化与技术进步导致劳动密度和劳动需求下降、就业不充分。继4月政治局会议[2]后，本次会议再次提出更好"统筹国内 经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，并将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。这与"十五五 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Google TPUv7 signifies a shift towards self-developed ASIC clusters, enhancing hardware value through heterogeneity and restructuring, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the AI computing hardware market, including PCB, liquid cooling, and power supply components, with projected market sizes reaching $21.65 billion, $20.18 billion, and $18.39 billion by 2027 respectively [2][4]. Group 1: TPU Architecture Evolution - Google has evolved its TPU architecture over the past decade, transitioning from TPU v1, a pure inference co-processor, to TPU v7, which features significant advancements such as dual-chiplet packaging and enhanced linear acceleration in large-scale clusters [3][10]. - The TPU v7 architecture includes 16 standardized compute trays, each housing 4 TPU chips, and utilizes a 100% liquid cooling system, supporting up to 9216 TPU chips in a single cluster [3][12]. Group 2: Market Size Projections - The AI PCB market is projected to reach $21.65 billion by 2027, driven by increased demand from Google’s TPU shipments and product iterations [4][38]. - The AI liquid cooling market is expected to grow to $20.18 billion by 2027, as the TDP of chips increases, necessitating more efficient cooling solutions [4][39]. - The AI power supply chip market is forecasted to reach $18.39 billion by 2027, influenced by the power architecture changes introduced with TPUv7 [4][41]. Group 3: Component Value Breakdown - The value breakdown for TPU v7 components includes approximately $54,400 for TPU, $4,000 for PCB, $7,000 for liquid cooling, and $7,100 for power supply, totaling around $73,000 per TPU unit [4][12]. - The projected market sizes for AI PCB, liquid cooling, and power supply chips by 2027 are $36.9 billion, $60.6 billion, and $31 billion respectively, based on Google’s procurement estimates [4][41]. Group 4: Technological Innovations - TPU v7 introduces a dual-chiplet design that integrates two logic cores with eight HBM3e memory stacks, achieving a memory bandwidth of 7.4 TB/s and a peak performance of 4614 TFLOPS [10][33]. - The TPU v7 architecture employs a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power supply system, which significantly reduces transmission losses and enhances efficiency [12][30]. Group 5: Cooling and Power Supply Innovations - The TPU v7 utilizes a fully liquid-cooled architecture with advanced flow control systems to manage heat dissipation effectively, ensuring stable operating temperatures [25][26]. - The power supply architecture for TPU v7 is designed to handle over 100 kW per cabinet, utilizing a distributed architecture that minimizes current transmission losses [30][32].