Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of dexterous hands in humanoid robots, highlighting their importance in transitioning from "walking" to "working" robots, and outlines the current state and challenges in the development of dexterous hands, particularly in transmission, drive, and perception systems [5][9][10]. Summary by Sections Market Potential - The global market for robotic dexterous hands is expected to exceed $3 billion by 2030, with a projected capacity of 141.21 million units by 2030 [5][12]. Transmission Development - Composite transmission solutions are becoming mainstream, with a notable increase in the penetration of micro ball screws due to their cost-effectiveness and mature design [5][29]. - Tendon transmission is favored for lightweight dexterous hands, significantly reducing fingertip inertia and supporting higher degrees of freedom [10][32]. Drive System - The trend towards cost reduction in brushless DC motors is significant, with Tesla leading the way in exploring these technologies [5][20]. - Brushless DC motors, hollow cup motors, and frameless torque motors are the primary drive solutions, each with distinct advantages and applications [20][21][26]. Perception System - Dexterous hands are evolving from single force perception to multi-modal perception, integrating visual and tactile feedback, with electronic skin emerging as a standard carrier for this technology [6][37]. - Current challenges in electronic skin include reliability, cost, and scalability in manufacturing [6][39]. Engineering Challenges - Dexterous hands face multiple engineering bottlenecks, including heat management, reliability, and the need for coordinated perception, drive, and execution systems [10][11]. - The integration of various technologies in the drive, transmission, and perception systems is still in progress, with ongoing exploration of different technical routes [15][17]. Industry Dynamics - The dexterous hand market is characterized by diverse technical solutions, with leading manufacturers adopting five-finger structures that cater to a wide range of industrial and service applications [18]. - The competition landscape includes third-party dexterous hand manufacturers and robot body companies, each leveraging their strengths in specific application scenarios [18][19]. Future Trends - The evolution of dexterous hands is marked by trends towards lightweight designs, high degrees of freedom, and enhanced perception capabilities [45][48]. - The integration of advanced materials and structural optimization is crucial for achieving the desired balance between weight, stiffness, and functionality in dexterous hands [47].

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cut cycle highlights the operational resilience of the four major U.S. banks, which are expected to maintain stable performance despite the ongoing economic adjustments [1]. Group 1: Net Interest Income - There is no need for excessive concern regarding the pressure from interest rate cuts, as the market anticipates the pace of cuts, allowing for adjustments on the liability side that help mitigate downward pressure on net interest margins. As of Q3 2025, the average net interest margin for the four major banks is 2.37%, having only decreased by 6 basis points from the peak of the current cycle [3][24]. - The average credit growth for the four major banks has rebounded from 0.8% in Q2 2024 to 6.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a recovery in credit growth rates [3][30]. Group 2: Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is expected to remain at a high level, with the four major banks averaging over 40% of total revenue from non-interest sources, benefiting from diversified business operations. Positive investment sentiment in the U.S. capital markets is likely to support continued high revenue from investment banking, global markets, and asset management [3][32]. Group 3: Asset Quality - The asset quality of the four major banks is relatively stable, although marginal changes should be closely monitored. The overall non-performing loan rate and net charge-off rate in the U.S. banking sector have slightly increased since 2024, but the four major banks maintain better asset quality than the overall industry [3][35]. Group 4: Capital Regulation - Regulatory easing is expected to further release excess capital. The latest capital requirements from the Federal Reserve, effective from October 2025, will lower the capital buffer requirements for many banks, allowing for the release of more excess capital in the coming year, which could enhance returns for bank investors [3][39]. Group 5: Valuation - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the four major U.S. banks has reached a historical high since 2008, reflecting stable macroeconomic expectations, a shift towards a more accommodative regulatory environment, and continuous improvement in bank profitability. The current average P/B is 1.6, above the historical mean of 1.1 [3][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the Chinese yuan is not significantly undervalued, challenging the notion that the price of a Big Mac in China compared to the U.S. indicates a misalignment in exchange rates. It emphasizes that using such simplistic comparisons can be misleading due to various economic factors that influence currency valuation [3][5][24]. Group 1: Theoretical Framework - The concept of absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) is introduced, which suggests that identical goods should have the same price when adjusted for exchange rates. This is based on the law of one price [3][7]. - The article highlights three main flaws in using the law of one price to assess exchange rates: it applies only to tradable goods, the conditions for its validity are rarely met, and it overlooks the significant impact of asset prices on exchange rates [4][8][24]. Group 2: Non-Tradable Goods and Price Composition - A significant portion of the costs associated with a Big Mac in China is derived from non-tradable goods, such as labor and rent, which constitute over 70% of its price. This makes it inappropriate to use the Big Mac as a benchmark for tradable goods [12][24]. - The article provides specific data showing that labor accounts for 45.6% of the Big Mac's price, while rent and electricity contribute 4.6% and 5.1%, respectively [12][24]. Group 3: Income Levels and Price Disparities - The article discusses the Balassa-Samuelson effect, which explains that higher-income countries tend to have higher absolute price levels due to greater productivity in tradable sectors, leading to increased wages in non-tradable sectors as well [9][24]. - It notes that even when comparing similar products, prices in high-income countries are generally higher than in low-income countries, which contradicts the absolute PPP theory [9][10]. Group 4: Capital Flows and Market Expectations - The article emphasizes that capital flows and market expectations play a more significant role in determining exchange rates than commodity prices, especially in a global economy where foreign exchange transactions far exceed trade volumes [22][24]. - It contrasts the classical view of exchange rate determination with a Keynesian perspective, which suggests that exchange rates do not necessarily converge to a single equilibrium value and can be influenced by speculative capital movements [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the moderate inflation data in the U.S. for December, highlighting a significant rise in food prices and stable prices for goods related to tariffs, while also noting a rebound in rent and core inflation in the service sector. The analysis suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in January due to the current inflation trends and labor market conditions [2][6]. Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in December, aligning with market expectations, while the core CPI increased by 2.6%, falling short of expectations [2]. - Food prices saw a notable seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.7%, the highest since 2022, driven by rising prices in dairy products (+0.9%), fruits and vegetables (+0.5%), and other household foods (+1.6%) [3]. - Energy prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with natural gas prices rising by 4.4%, while gasoline and fuel prices decreased by 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively [3]. Impact of Tariffs and Cost Management - The impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation has been milder than previously feared, as supply chains and retailers absorbed some costs. This has hindered the downward transmission of durable goods prices, making it difficult to pass on costs to consumers [4]. - There is a concern that companies that have previously absorbed costs without raising prices may eventually increase prices, contributing to inflationary pressures [4]. Rent and Housing Market Insights - Rent prices have rebounded, with the Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) and primary residential rent increasing from 0.1% to 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a return to normal levels [4][10]. - Despite a cooling labor market and reduced rental demand due to immigration policies, rent inflation is expected to remain moderate, with no signs of a significant downturn in rental prices [4]. Service Sector Inflation Trends - Non-rent core service inflation (supercore) rebounded, with a month-on-month increase from 0% to 0.3%, indicating a recovery in service activities following the government reopening [5]. - Prices related to travel, such as airfare (+5.2%) and hotel accommodations (+3.5%), showed strong increases, while communication services experienced significant price drops, particularly in wireless services due to competitive pricing strategies among major carriers [5]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The moderate inflation data is insufficient for the Federal Reserve to consider another rate cut in January, especially after three rate cuts in 2025 that brought the policy rate close to neutral levels [6]. - The labor market, while cooling, has not deteriorated significantly enough to warrant a rate cut, and there are concerns about the perception of political interference if the Fed were to lower rates prematurely [6].

2026开年A股市场表现强劲，成交额创历史新高。 2026年年初至今（1月12日）上证指数累计上涨4.9%，自2025年年底以来17连阳，表现在全球 主要市场居前。整体风格偏向成长，创业板指/科创50年初以来累计涨5.8%/12.5%；传媒/国防军工/计算机/有色金属分别累计涨 21.9%/20.1%/16.4%/10.0%。值得关注的是1月12日，A股市场总成交额3.64万亿元，创历史新高。 多重利好促成A股开年强势表现。 近期市场快速上涨受到多方面因素支撑：1）整体预期上，投资者对2026年尤其是上半年普遍预期较为乐观， 共识抬升一定程度引导资金提前布局。2）产业层面，科技成长相关产业近期事件性催化因素较多，如：去年年底以来商业航天卫星密集试飞， 周末根据国际电信联盟（ITU）披露的最新数据显示，近期我国向国际电信联盟提交新增20.3万颗卫星申请[1]；近期AI应用领域的创新进展，AI 和半导体等相关领域多个市场关注度较高的企业陆续IPO等。3）盈利方面，1月底通常将有较多A股上市公司集中披露年度业绩预告，低基数背 景下市场对业绩预期相对乐观，尤其利好中小市值风格。4）资金情况，居民存款搬家叙事延续，与指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main issue behind the recent slowdown in consumer spending in China is not a lack of willingness to consume, but rather a limitation in consumption capacity, primarily driven by slowing income growth and weakened income expectations [5][6][30]. Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - From 2001 to 2023, consumer spending contributed an average of 53.1% to China's economic growth, but this is projected to drop to 44.5% in 2024 [4][10]. - The growth rate of social retail sales has decreased significantly, from over 8% before 2019 to less than 4% in 2024 [4][10]. - Service consumption recovery is lagging, with major sectors like dining, housing, education, and entertainment showing a general slowdown in growth [4][10]. Group 2: Income Growth and Consumer Capacity - The growth rate of per capita disposable income has slowed from 8.9% in 2019 to 5.3% in 2024, with wage income being the largest component facing pressure [6][30][32]. - The net transfer income growth has also decelerated, reflecting reduced fiscal space for local governments, which impacts social welfare spending [30][32]. Group 3: Employment Market Pressures - The employment market is facing three main pressures: a total demand gap, a structural gap, and an efficiency squeeze gap [8][49][50]. - The total demand gap is approximately 2.1%, driven by economic performance below potential levels [50][55]. - The structural gap, resulting from a divergence in recovery between manufacturing and service sectors, accounts for about 1.3% of the employment gap [50][56]. - The efficiency squeeze gap, due to technological advancements and extended working hours, is estimated at 2.2% [50][58]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To break the negative spiral of weak income, low confidence, and sluggish consumption, a coordinated approach involving fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms is necessary [9][67]. - Policies should focus on revitalizing local government and corporate balance sheets to stabilize credit expansion and investment expectations [67][69]. - Enhancing service sector capacity and quality is crucial, as it holds significant potential for consumer spending growth [70][72].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that statistical errors in measuring U.S. inflation may lead to a compensatory increase in CPI data in late 2025 and early 2026, which could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and global liquidity [2][4][7]. Group 1: Inflation Analysis - The recent drop in U.S. CPI from 3% to 2.7% and core CPI from 3% to 2.6% is attributed to statistical method flaws rather than a genuine change in inflation trends [5][7]. - The U.S. inflation rebound risk is not resolved; the low CPI readings in November are significantly underestimated due to the "government shutdown" affecting data collection [7][8]. - The article identifies three main statistical underestimation effects: 1. The low estimation effect from the rental sample rotation, which could lead to a doubling of rental inflation by April 2026, compensating for previous underestimations [8][10]. 2. The underestimation from alternating monthly sample rotations, which may result in a compensatory increase in December 2025 inflation [10][12]. 3. The lagging statistical timing effect due to data collection during the Thanksgiving season, which could lead to overestimations in January 2026 [12][13]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The article predicts that U.S. inflation will be in an upward cycle in the first half of 2026, with CPI potentially rising due to compensatory effects [13][16]. - It anticipates a temporary improvement in U.S. economic growth in early 2026, driven by government spending resuming after the shutdown and seasonal adjustments in economic data [22][24]. - The potential for a "temporary overheating" state in the economy is noted, with inflation and growth possibly rising simultaneously [24][29]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends increasing commodity allocations to hedge against inflation risks and suggests buying on dips for gold, U.S. Treasuries, and Chinese stocks if there are market corrections [2][30][31]. - It emphasizes that while inflation may rise in the short term, the long-term outlook suggests a return to lower inflation rates, which could lead to a faster pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [30][31].

点击小程序查看报告原文 1月进入年报业绩预报和快报的披露高峰期。 12月中下旬以来A股市场单边上行，近期再创十年新高，交投情绪明显改善。随着A股上市公司年报业绩预 报在1月集中披露，我们认为业绩出现改善或超预期的行业和个股可能成为投资者关注的主线。截至1月10日，A股已披露年报预告的公司数量约占1.8%， 我们结合中金行业分析员自下而上预测，梳理年报业绩预览供投资者参考： 2025年全年A股盈利同比有望结束此前四年的增速连降，转为正增长。 从2025年四季度宏观数据来看，内需方面，四季度社零增速延续放缓，1-11月社零 总额同比+4.0%（vs.前三季度4.5%），以旧换新政策影响退坡；房地产量价走弱，房企投资仍偏谨慎；物价层面，4Q25物价水平边际改善，CPI同比由三 季度的-0.2%转正至0.6%，PPI同比降幅收窄至-2.1%；外需方面，10-11月人民币计价的出口金额同比分别为-0.8%/5.7%，2024年高基数为主要扰动，需求 侧整体平稳。考虑到2024年四季度非金融盈利因减值造成的低基数，我们预计单四季度盈利同比有望出现改善。2025年前三季度全部A股/金融/非金融盈 利增速分别为5.4%/9. ...

"天量"存款到期"叙事"的来龙去脉。 市场对"天量"存款到期的讨论实际上可以追溯到2022-2023年的居民长期限存款的高增长：当时两年居民存 款净增28万亿元，相比2021年的水平形成约5万亿元的长期限"超额存款"，这一部分存款在2025-2026年陆续到期。但我们认为存款并非居民储蓄 的唯一形式，居民储蓄应同时将存款和银行理财产品纳入考虑范围。实际上，2022-2023年的存款高增长实际上主要由于理财的再配置，当时由于 债市利率迅速上行导致理财产品出现净值回撤和赎回的"负反馈"。因此，我们认为这一部分"超额存款"的性质上与理财产品近似，主要在低风险 偏好资产中进行配置切换。 如何衡量存款搬家的潜力？ 相比市场关注的存款到期"叙事"，我们认为综合考虑居民存款和理财的"超额储蓄"更为关键。我们使用每年居民储蓄/ 可支配收入测算储蓄率，将超出长期趋势水平的储蓄作为"超额储蓄"。根据我们的测算，2022年-2025年期间居民共形成约6万亿元超额储蓄，并 且2025年居民储蓄倾向仍然位于21%左右的高位，显示出虽然资本市场回暖，居民投资和消费的边际倾向总体上并未明显提升。 因此，我们认为 当前市场"存款搬家"叙事并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of A-shares at the beginning of 2026 is primarily driven by "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce return assets," rather than significant changes in the macroeconomic fundamentals [2][3][5]. Group 1: A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a 16-day consecutive rise, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, continuing the trend from 2025 [3][5]. - The main contributors to the A-share gains are valuation expansions, with sectors like commercial aerospace and materials leading the charge [5][8]. - A-share trading volumes have reached historical highs, with a single-day turnover exceeding 30 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [5][8]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market has lagged behind, primarily due to a lack of attractive structural opportunities and weaker capital flows [9][11]. - Key sectors in Hong Kong, such as dividends, internet, and new consumption, are not currently in the market's focus, leading to underperformance [11][19]. - The Hong Kong IPO market remains active, with significant fundraising, but the overall market sentiment is subdued compared to A-shares [17][19]. Group 3: Capital Flow and Liquidity - Domestic capital flows have favored A-shares, with southbound capital flows slowing down significantly since late 2025 [15][19]. - The liquidity environment for A-shares is more favorable, benefiting from domestic microeconomic conditions, while Hong Kong faces constraints from external factors [28][30]. - The anticipated inflow of southbound capital in 2026 may not match the record levels seen in 2025, as A-shares attract more attention [30][32]. Group 4: Structural Differences and Future Outlook - A-shares are expected to have a higher overall profit growth rate of 4%-5% in 2026, compared to Hong Kong's 3%, driven by stronger sectors like technology and manufacturing [25][26]. - The structural advantages of Hong Kong, including its focus on dividends and innovative drugs, provide unique investment opportunities, even as A-shares outperform overall [30][32]. - The ongoing credit cycle and its impact on market dynamics will guide investment strategies, with a focus on sectors like AI, dividends, and cyclical stocks [33].