Core Viewpoint - Industry profit forecasting has a positive effect on stock price performance, with long-term returns decomposed into dividend yield, profit growth rate, and price-earnings ratio changes [3][9] Group 1: Industry Profit Forecasting - Profit growth rate is the core driver of stock value growth and is more predictable than price-earnings ratio changes [3][9] - Forecasting profit growth can enhance the performance of industry portfolios, with a hypothetical high-growth portfolio outperforming equal-weighted and low-growth portfolios [3][9] - The industry prosperity model reflects future industry profit status through demand and supply indicators, providing support for stock price return predictions [3][11] Group 2: LLM Empowerment in Model Construction - LLM improves the efficiency of constructing industry prosperity models by enhancing qualitative analysis and indicator selection [4][5] - A structured process using LLM for qualitative screening and quantitative testing results in a reliable industry prosperity index that predicts profit growth [5][17] - The constructed prosperity index shows predictive capability for future profit growth, with average and median rank correlation coefficients around 0.25 across different industry levels [5][26] Group 3: Application of Industry Prosperity Index - The industry prosperity index has various applications, including industry timing, rotation, stock selection, and risk warning [6][38] - High-prosperity industry portfolios demonstrate superior long-term performance compared to equal-weighted portfolios, with annualized excess returns of 2.4%, 2.9%, and 2.8% for different industry levels [6][7] - Sensitivity tests indicate that high-prosperity portfolios maintain stable excess returns over time, outperforming low-prosperity and equal-weighted portfolios [50][43]

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 我们在再工业化开篇系列（一）、（二）中，聚焦美国产业回流进程，着重探讨美国在全球制造业版图中的定位，剖析其制造业"空心化"现象与供应链重 构挑战，并结合我们9月美国实地调研提供一线观察。 在本文中，我们通过宏观、微观多维数据分析当前美国基建和制造业景气度变化趋势，建议关注2026 年三条投资主线。主线一： 大型公共项目驱动，硬 基建建筑投资旺盛； 主线二： 时隔三年自动化设备周期触底回升，代表投产活动的工业设备投资指标回暖； 主线三： AI基础设施建设潮下的数据中心产 业链。 T正文ext 美国再工业化背景下，聚焦三条投资主线 在美国大型基建项目长周期建设、制造业回流、AI基建多重催化的背景下，我们建议关注2026年三条投资主线： 大型公共项目驱动，硬基建建筑投资旺盛，我们预计2026年非住宅其他领域如制造业、软基建的建筑投资也将全面回暖： 推动基建（如交通、电网）、 制造业厂房等投资， 受益环节包括工程基建EPC、工程机械、设备租赁、工业自动化及电气设备等产业链。 美国制造业回流带来再工业化需求，时隔三年自动化设备周期触底回升，代表工业生产活动的工业设备投资指 ...

Group 1 - The CICC Global Institute (CGI) is positioned as a new type of think tank under CICC, focusing on public policy research and decision-making in China, and participating in international policy discussions [2][4] - CGI aims to build capabilities and teams to study major issues related to the long-term development of the Chinese and global economy, finance, and capital markets, providing services through research consulting, thematic forums, international exchanges, and lecture series [4] Group 2 - Dr. Peng Wensheng, the Chief Economist of CICC, serves as the Director of the CICC Global Institute, while Dr. Wu Huimin, the Executive Director of the Research Department and head of the ESG Office, serves as the Executive Dean [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural rise of the Japanese stock market during the "lost two decades" post-1990, emphasizing that despite overall economic stagnation, there were significant structural changes and investment opportunities within the market [3][4]. Group 1: Structural Market Changes - Japan experienced a structural rise in its stock market driven by economic transformation, including increased overseas exposure, high-tech leadership, and improved corporate governance [3][4]. - The "new economy" sectors, excluding the "old economy" sectors heavily exposed to real estate and deflation, showed a strong upward trend post-1990, particularly in industries such as industrial, technology, communication, and even consumer sectors [3][12]. - The Nikkei index recorded negative returns overall, but the "new economy" index achieved an annualized compound return of 7.3%, outperforming other Asian countries and aligning closely with global averages excluding the U.S. [12][14]. Group 2: Overseas Exposure - Japan's export growth continued post-1990, with the export-to-GDP ratio rising from 10% in the early 1990s to 20% before the global financial crisis, with industrial goods and capital equipment making up a significant portion [24][26]. - Outward Direct Investment (ODI) increased significantly, from 0.3% of GDP in 1993 to 2.2% in 2008, with manufacturing being the primary focus, particularly in high-end sectors [26][29]. - The increase in ODI led to a rise in overseas production and sales, with overseas branches contributing over 30% to the revenue of Japanese manufacturing firms [31][32]. Group 3: High-Tech Leadership - Japan maintained a strong position in high-tech sectors despite domestic economic stagnation, with high-tech product exports consistently accounting for over 85% of total exports since the 1990s [42][44]. - R&D investment as a percentage of GDP rose from 2.5% to over 3%, surpassing the OECD average, indicating a commitment to innovation and technological advancement [42][44]. - Labor productivity in manufacturing increased by 50% during the "lost decade," reflecting the positive impact of high-tech industries on overall economic performance [51][53]. Group 4: Corporate Governance Improvements - Post-1990, Japan's corporate governance underwent significant changes, with an increase in foreign investor participation leading to a focus on profitability and shareholder returns [60][62]. - Reforms in corporate governance included lowering litigation costs for minority shareholders, aligning management compensation with company performance, and allowing stock buybacks, which improved shareholder value [63][67]. - The financial health of "new economy" sectors improved significantly, with return on equity (ROE) surpassing that of "old economy" sectors, indicating a shift towards more sustainable and profitable business practices [69][70]. Group 5: Stable Capital Inflows - Stable capital inflows, particularly from long-term and overseas investors, provided essential support for the structural rise of the Japanese stock market [74][76]. - The proportion of overseas funds in the Japanese stock market increased significantly post-bubble, contributing to improved corporate governance and performance [76][80]. - Long-term funds, especially from insurance and pension sectors, remained stable, while domestic retail investor participation declined, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [74][79].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a structural shift with rising prices and demand driven by AI and traditional sectors, while supply remains constrained due to resource depletion and geopolitical factors [2][4][54]. Group 1: Tin Market Overview - Since 2020, tin prices have increased, leading to improved industry profitability and a current PE ratio at the 21st percentile over the past five years [2]. - Tin is one of the most scarce non-ferrous metals, with a global static reserve-to-production ratio of only 16 years in 2024, indicating a tight supply situation [3][7]. - Major tin resources are concentrated in a few regions, with high development levels, and many supply areas have static reserve-to-production ratios below 22 years [4][7]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - AI-driven demand for computing infrastructure and smart devices, along with the electrification of vehicles, is expected to accelerate tin solder demand, projected to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2030 [3][12]. - Traditional demand is anticipated to benefit from global monetary easing and the increasing need for "strategic stockpiles" amid geopolitical tensions, with overall global tin demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3% from 2024 to 2030 [3][13]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Key producing regions like China, Indonesia, and Myanmar face significant supply challenges, including declining reserves and frequent disruptions [4][28][38]. - China's tin reserves have decreased by 52% from 2001 to 2024, with a static reserve-to-production ratio dropping to 14 years [28][29]. - Indonesia's tin industry is grappling with resource depletion and regulatory changes that exacerbate supply disruptions, while Myanmar's production has been severely impacted by operational halts [38][45]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The tin price is expected to rise due to supply constraints and improving demand, with projections indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario from 2025 to 2030 [54][61]. - The global tin supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.6% from 2024 to 2030, while demand is expected to increase at a CAGR of 4.3% during the same period [61][63]. - The industry faces rising costs due to declining ore grades and inflationary pressures, which may further elevate the incentive prices for new projects [63][64].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle starting in 2026, driven by stable supply-demand dynamics and advancements in solid-state battery technology [2][4]. Demand - A new growth cycle is emerging, with energy storage expected to become a core growth driver. The domestic market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is benefiting from increased battery capacity and the expansion of new application scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [7][10]. - In 2026, the average battery capacity for domestic passenger vehicles is projected to continue increasing, supported by policy adjustments and the introduction of high-capacity fast-charging models [7]. - The European market is anticipated to see accelerated demand recovery in 2026, driven by the launch of new platform models and continued subsidies for NEVs [10]. Supply and Demand - The supply-demand inflection point is approaching, with a confirmed trend of price reversal. By 2025, the demand driven by energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, leading to improved supply-demand relationships and price increases in various segments of the lithium battery supply chain [11][17]. - The overall capacity utilization rate in the industry is expected to rise, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity by the third quarter of 2025 [17]. New Technology - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with several manufacturers expected to achieve small-scale production by 2026. The focus is on solid-state sulfide batteries, which are anticipated to reach mass production levels [30][31]. - Semi-solid batteries are also gaining traction due to their higher safety and energy density, with commercial production expected to ramp up in various sectors, including electric vehicles and energy storage [29][30]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes focusing on energy storage demand exceeding expectations, which will drive a reversal trend in the sector. Key recommendations include lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [5]. - New technologies, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries, are highlighted as high-growth investment directions, with significant breakthroughs expected in 2026 [5][34]. International Expansion - The lithium battery supply chain is accelerating its global manufacturing layout, with significant production expected to come online in 2026 across Europe and Southeast Asia. This expansion is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [25][26]. - Companies are adopting new business models, such as technology licensing, to facilitate entry into markets with high trade barriers, exemplified by CATL's LRS model in the U.S. [27]. Charging Infrastructure - The domestic charging station construction is expected to benefit from supportive policies, while the U.S. market may see a surge in installations due to preemptive actions ahead of tariff impacts [39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current status, challenges, and potential breakthroughs of commercial health insurance in China, emphasizing its significant social management function in addressing the medical expense payment gap and improving healthcare accessibility [2][10]. Current Status - On a macro level, self-paid medical expenses account for a high proportion of total healthcare costs in China, with personal out-of-pocket expenses reaching 2.5 trillion yuan, representing 27% of total healthcare expenditure in 2023 [12]. - The commercial health insurance payout in 2023 was only 0.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 4% of total healthcare costs, indicating a significant gap in coverage [12]. - The basic medical insurance system covers over 1.3 billion people, achieving a participation rate of around 95%, but it is constrained in its ability to further increase payment proportions due to rising healthcare costs and demographic changes [15][21]. Challenges - The effective supply of commercial health insurance is insufficient, primarily due to a lack of industry infrastructure and product development capabilities [5][25]. - The perception of adequate coverage from basic medical insurance leads to a "sufficient protection illusion," which hinders the demand for commercial health insurance [36]. - The insurance industry has historically focused on rapid expansion through high-premium critical illness insurance, which has limited the development of more integrated health insurance products [43][44]. Potential Breakthroughs - Key variables for breaking the current deadlock include reforms in medical insurance payment systems and support from regulatory bodies to enhance industry infrastructure [5][51]. - The promotion of personal account-based medical insurance and long-term care insurance could provide comprehensive health solutions and open new avenues for industry growth [64][65]. - The increasing income levels and the growing middle-income population in China are expected to drive demand for commercial health insurance, creating a favorable environment for its development [62]. Investment Opportunities - The article identifies four main investment themes: leading internet platforms and large insurance groups building commercial health insurance systems, efficient corporate group insurance channels, reinsurers benefiting from health insurance market growth, and pharmaceutical companies gaining from increased commercial insurance payments [6][66].

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of the AI bubble has led to significant declines in global tech stocks, impacting markets in the US, China, and Hong Kong, with notable drops in the Hang Seng Tech Index (-7%), ChiNext (-6%), and the "Magnificent Seven" in the US (-6%) [2][4]. Group 1: AI Bubble Concerns - The primary concern driving market declines is the AI bubble, which has become a key economic indicator in the US and China [4]. - Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, the "Magnificent Seven" stocks in the US have surged by 283%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which saw a 69% increase when adjusted for the "M7" [4][6]. - In China, the top ten tech companies have risen by 81% since early 2025, outpacing the Hang Seng Index's 19% increase when adjusted for these companies [6]. Group 2: Understanding the Bubble - The discussion around bubbles should focus on identifying the current stage rather than outright denial of their existence [8]. - Bubbles can drive industry development, and historical examples show that significant gains can occur during bubble phases, as seen in the Nasdaq's 256% rise from 1998 to 2000 despite declining profits [9][11]. - Current market expectations for OpenAI's IPO valuation are around $1 trillion, with a P/S ratio of 50x based on projected revenues of $20 billion, which could drop to 25x if revenues double [12]. Group 3: Investment and Demand Analysis - AI demand is categorized into disruptive external innovations and internal cost-saving efficiencies, with the latter already showing results [16]. - AI applications are projected to reduce costs by 9-11%, potentially saving $300 billion annually across the S&P 500 [19]. - Labor productivity in the non-farm business sector has increased by 5.6% since 2023, outpacing the productivity growth during the internet revolution [21]. Group 4: Investment Intensity and Capacity - Current investment levels in AI are less than half of those during the internet bubble, with technology investment growth expected to rise from 6% in early 2023 to 16% by mid-2025 [39]. - The capital expenditure to sales ratio for the "Magnificent Seven" is projected to rise from 9% in Q4 2023 to 15.9% by Q3 2025, indicating a healthy investment environment [41]. - The reliance on debt financing is lower than during the dot-com bubble, with the current debt-to-equity ratio for major tech firms at approximately 81%, significantly below the 124% average during the peak of the dot-com era [43]. Group 5: Market Valuation and Sentiment - The venture capital market is nearing the levels seen in 1999, with significant increases in funding for AI-related ventures [51]. - The dynamic P/E ratio for the "Magnificent Seven" has reached around 28x, close to the levels seen in late 1998, but still below the extreme valuations of the internet bubble [55]. - Investor sentiment is not as euphoric as during the dot-com bubble, with current net bullish sentiment at -5%, contrasting sharply with the 46% seen in early 2000 [59][61]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The current market environment suggests a potential for volatility due to high valuations, but long-term investment opportunities remain, particularly for companies that can effectively integrate AI into their business models [75]. - The overall economic contribution of AI is expected to be stronger than during the internet bubble, with technology investments contributing significantly to GDP growth [32][36]. - The forecast for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2026 is projected to be between 7600 and 7800, indicating a potential increase of 13-16% [78].

Core Viewpoint - Drones are reshaping the engineering operation and maintenance service ecosystem in China's infrastructure sector, addressing the significant operational needs and enhancing efficiency while reducing costs and safety risks [2][3]. Group 1: Infrastructure Market Overview - China's infrastructure investment continues to grow steadily, with a leading global position in fixed asset investment, particularly in electricity, transportation, oil and gas, and telecommunications [3][7]. - According to Deloitte, Chinese companies accounted for over 50% of the revenue among the top 100 global infrastructure firms in 2024, highlighting China's scale advantage and international competitiveness [7][9]. Group 2: Challenges of Traditional Inspection Methods - Traditional manual inspection methods face challenges such as low efficiency, high costs, and significant safety risks, making them inadequate for modern infrastructure maintenance needs [14][15]. - The demand for inspections is driven by the vast and complex infrastructure network in China, which requires timely detection of equipment anomalies to ensure stable operations and prevent accidents [14][15]. Group 3: Advantages of Drone Inspections - Drones offer significant advantages in efficiency, cost reduction, and safety over traditional methods, with AI capabilities enhancing standardization and reducing errors [18][23]. - For example, drone inspections can reduce the time required for tasks significantly, such as compressing a 4-hour manual inspection into just 10 minutes [18][21]. Group 4: Policy Support for Drone Technology - A multi-level policy framework is in place to support the deployment of drone technology in infrastructure inspection, with national and local governments encouraging the expansion of drone services [3][22]. - Key policies include the "14th Five-Year Plan" for civil aviation and various local initiatives aimed at promoting the use of drones in inspection and maintenance [22]. Group 5: Market Potential for Drone Inspections - The total potential market for infrastructure inspection drones is estimated to reach 4.9 billion yuan, with an annual potential market space of approximately 2.4 billion yuan after considering depreciation [34][37]. - The market is driven by the dual forces of accelerating new infrastructure projects and the upgrading of traditional maintenance practices [35][37]. Group 6: Industry Chain Development - The drone industry chain is evolving with decreasing hardware costs and rapid advancements in AI algorithms, facilitating large-scale applications in China's extensive infrastructure sector [39][40]. - Key players in the supply chain include core hardware suppliers, midstream manufacturers, and downstream service providers, all benefiting from the industry's growth [39][41]. Group 7: Applications Across Various Sectors - Drones are being utilized in multiple sectors, including electricity, oil and gas, water conservancy, transportation, and telecommunications, with specific adaptations for each field [44][45]. - The end users primarily consist of large state-owned enterprises and government agencies, which require high reliability and precision in drone operations [44].

中金研究 2022年以来，在地缘政治、"去美元化"、持续增长的美债等影响下，黄金价格持续攀高。从供需来看，黄金产量增长稳定，价格主要取决于需求，其 中央行购金是近几年主要的需求来源。不过，随着金价不断走高，有的央行的资产配置中，黄金与储备资产之比已超过其目标，出现短期减持黄金的 现象。总体而言，我们认为全球央行配置黄金的比例可能还有上升空间。 点击小程序查看报告原文 在金价上涨的过程中，需要注意部分央行对黄金的配置超过其目标，而减持黄金。 例如，2024年，波兰央行表示其目标是将黄金在储备中的占比提高到 20%[1]。而随着金价快速上涨，截至2025年三季度，波兰央行持有的黄金在储备中占比已达到24%，超过了其目标。根据世界黄金协会的数据，2025年7 月，波兰央行自2023年以来首次减持黄金。 总体而言，全球央行配置黄金的比例可能还有上升空间。 根据我们测算，从2022年一季度到2025年三季度，全球央行的配置中，黄金占其储备资产的比 例从13.3%上涨到23.7%，上升了10.4个百分点。在全球主要的黄金持有央行中，从2022年一季度到2025年三季度，美国、意大利、法国、瑞士、日本、荷 兰等黄金持有量并 ...