点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 1月22日，中国保险行业协会[1]、中国精算师协会[2]、中国银保信[3]共同发文，基于各自职能从商业健康险定价数据、产品设计、药品目录、信息共享等 方面完善关键基建，中国银行保险资产管理业协会[4]同时发声明确保险行业对于医疗健康领域的长期投资支持，我们此前在 中国商业健康险系列报告1） 中讨论了在诸多自上而下、由来已久的阻碍共同作用下商业健康险陷入"产品价值创造和筹资效率低-支付力不足难以撬动医疗资源-产品力价值创造和筹 资效率难以提升"的困局，我们认为本次政策组合直击主要堵点，将有效引导行业逐步走向正反馈，开启发展新时代。 四部门发文直击痛点，破解健康险发展堵点和困局。 ► 中国保险行业协会推动制定商业医疗险行业示范条款与药品保障支付清单，规范产品设计、丰富保障供给，并促进保险、医疗、医药三大产业的生态 协同。 ► 中国精算师协会推进商业医疗险及惠民保净成本表制定、创新药品成本测算与分析，弥补行业定价基础数据缺口，提升行业风险量化与科学定价能 力。 ► 中国银保信推动健康保险产品智能检核优化、医保商保数据融合、健康险数据标准体系建设与平台基础设施升级，破解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of Trump's policies on the U.S. economy, focusing on three macro objectives: increasing revenue, reducing costs, and encouraging capital repatriation. The analysis highlights the volatility in financial markets due to policy uncertainty and the implications of Trump's tariff strategies on trade deficits and government revenue [6][7][8]. Group 1: Increasing Revenue - Trump's strategy to increase revenue primarily involves imposing tariffs, as raising domestic taxes is politically unfeasible. The tariffs have led to a notable reduction in the trade deficit, with a 24.6% decrease from $5270.6 billion in 2024 to $3973.3 billion in 2025 [8][10]. - The effective tax rate from tariffs is reported at 11.1%, generating $287 billion in tariff revenue for 2025, which supports the funding of the "Great Beautiful" plan. This approach has allowed for fiscal expansion without significantly increasing debt or deficits [10][12]. - The U.S. government deficit decreased from $1.83 trillion in 2024 to $1.76 trillion in 2025, with the deficit rate dropping from 6.4% to 5.8% [24]. Group 2: Reducing Costs - Trump's efforts to reduce costs include pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and implementing non-market measures, such as limiting credit card interest rates and directing government-sponsored enterprises to purchase mortgage-backed securities [30][32]. - Despite these efforts, the effectiveness of these measures has been limited, as U.S. debt interest costs approached $1 trillion, representing 3.1% of GDP, indicating persistent high costs [30][32]. - The article suggests that undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve could lead to market sell-offs and increased bond yields, counteracting Trump's objectives [32]. Group 3: Capital Repatriation - Trump's policies aim to encourage manufacturing and capital repatriation through tax incentives and tariffs, which have led to a significant increase in domestic manufacturing and corporate investments [36][37]. - The share of U.S. manufacturing imports has decreased from 13.3% in March 2025 to 8.0% by October 2025, indicating a positive trend in domestic manufacturing [37]. - Corporate fixed investment rose from 0.9% in December 2024 to 3.9% in September 2025, with S&P 500 capital expenditures increasing from 8.7% to 19.8% in the same period [39][41]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The article notes potential risks associated with Trump's challenge to the existing international order, which could lead to a significant "de-dollarization" trend, impacting foreign direct investment and U.S. Treasury holdings [43][44]. - Although there are concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and the potential for a loss of confidence in U.S. debt, the current situation has not yet resulted in widespread "de-dollarization" [44]. - The article emphasizes the need for close monitoring of developments, particularly regarding the Supreme Court's rulings on Trump's tariff policies and the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair [66].

Abstract 摘要 中金研究 2024年12月我们发布了《 休闲食品行业系列三：零食量贩渠道发展复盘及展望 》[1]报告，经历一年发展，行业进入3.0阶段，从"规模竞速"到"质效深 耕"。 点击小程序查看报告原文 零食量贩行业模型效率高且持续扩容，2025年底零食量贩门店超5.5万家。 我们预估2025年底5.5-6万家（零售额预估超2500亿元），中长期零食量贩店有 望达8-10万家。 零食量贩3.0时代格局已基本形成。 零食量贩1.0阶段（爆发增长期）期间呈现区域割据的特点；零食量贩2.0阶段（竞争整合期）2022-2024年市场整合加 速，头部龙头借助资金、品牌和规模等优势加速市场整合；零食量贩3.0阶段行业双强格局已基本形成，进入需门店运营优化和供应链提效的发展阶段。 2025年末鸣鸣很忙集团、万辰集团的门店数量分别超2.2/1.9万家（高德地图统计）。 2024年下半年零食量贩品牌均开始积极拓展品类，尝试运营省钱/折扣超市的新店型。 以现有品类为基础，拓展IP玩具卡牌类、以及短保类的烘焙或乳制 品，以及日化清洁、冻品等家庭刚需品类。品类扩充后对门店GMV有一定拉动但仍未达到较好的盈利模型，后续仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services through the integration of insights from over 30 specialized teams and a comprehensive coverage of more than 1,800 stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Content - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - The platform features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots [4]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - CICC Insight includes over 160 industry research frameworks and more than 40 premium databases, offering comprehensive industry data [10]. - The platform also features an AI search function for efficient information retrieval and intelligent Q&A capabilities [10].

Group 1: Strategy - The formation of a "slow bull market" in A-shares is influenced by multiple factors, including fundamental, institutional, and capital market changes, with a shift in the macro paradigm and ongoing capital market reforms creating a conducive environment for this slow bull market [4] - The article emphasizes that the current conditions are more favorable for a "slow bull market" than in the past, which could significantly support the construction of a financial strong nation, boost consumption, and upgrade industries [4] - The realization of this slow bull market relies on China's commitment to economic transformation and deepening capital market reforms to enhance the market's medium to long-term attractiveness [4] Group 2: Strategy - The article discusses the three main drivers for a currency to achieve international reserve status: market forces, policy support, and historical inertia, with market forces being the most fundamental [7] - It identifies two main obstacles to the internationalization and reserve status of the RMB: the low proportion of trade settlement compared to trade volume and insufficient development and openness of the financial market [7] - The article proposes a "three-pronged" approach to enhance the RMB's internationalization and reserve status, focusing on cross-border trade settlement, financial market development, and regional initiatives [7] Group 3: Strategy - There are notable differences in AI investment between China and the US, despite similar overall investment scales, with variations in infrastructure, chip development, and model application [9] - The funding sources for AI investments differ significantly, with the US being predominantly driven by the private sector, while China sees a dual drive from both government and private sectors [9] - These funding sources influence investment characteristics, such as return expectations and investment timelines, leading to different focuses in investment areas [9] Group 4: Macroeconomy - The article highlights the recent volatility in US and Japanese bonds due to geopolitical risks and fiscal discipline issues, suggesting that this could lead to systemic risks in overseas markets [12] - It anticipates that debt monetization and Yield Curve Control (YCC) may become necessary to suppress long-term interest rates, potentially resulting in a trend of increased dollar liquidity and a continued weak dollar [12] - This environment is expected to favor commodities like gold, silver, and copper, as well as emerging markets, particularly the Chinese stock market, which remains underweighted by global funds [12] Group 5: Commodities - Extreme weather is identified as a key variable affecting commodity markets, leading to synchronized supply and demand adjustments across energy, metals, and agricultural sectors [16] - The article notes that different commodities respond to weather changes in distinct ways, with energy prices driven by temperature and metal prices influenced by precipitation [16] - Specific forecasts include a tightening of the US natural gas market and a downward trend in European gas prices due to low inventory levels, while aluminum costs may rise due to reduced hydropower generation from decreased rainfall [16] Group 6: Macroeconomy - The 2026 US midterm elections are highlighted as a critical juncture, with potential implications for government policy and market dynamics, particularly concerning high inflation and living costs [18] - The article suggests that the focus of the elections may shift from stimulating economic growth to alleviating cost-of-living pressures, impacting investment strategies [18] - Key insights for investors include limited expansion potential for index valuations, increased volatility, and heightened policy risks for monopolistic sectors, while cost-benefit industries may become more favorable for capital allocation [18]

中金研究 近期美国和欧洲之间因地缘局势产生新的关税争端，我们用此篇系统性展示关税现状及对欧洲经济和市场的影响，以帮助投资者追踪最新情况及后续 潜在的演变。 注：橙色部分是美国本次针对格陵兰事件提出的拟增加关税税率，原定于2026年2月1日生效；数据统计截至2026年1月20日 资料来源：Trump 2.0 tariff tracker，中金公司研究部 点击小程序查看报告原文 ► 欧美关税争端最新情况： 2026年1月17日，特朗普宣布向8个欧洲国家加征10%的关税，从2月1日起实施。同时，他宣称加征的关税税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直到相关方就美 国"全面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。涉及的8个欧洲国家包括：丹麦，挪威，瑞典，法国，德国，英国，荷兰，芬兰，其中6个是欧盟成员国（英国， 挪威除外）。 特朗普于周三表示，经过与北约秘书长的谈判，将不再对一系列欧洲国家征收原定于2月1日起实施的关税。后续相关事项的变化及欧洲的反应仍存在较大 的不确定性。在此之前，欧盟的贸易协定内容除了欧盟对美出口的大部分货物适用于最高15%的关税税率外，欧盟也承诺增加对美国投资、购买美国的能 源品和芯片，并取消对美国工业品的关税 ...

中金研究 中金公司研究部发布了2026年一季度图说中国，本产品汇集了中金公司研究部宏观、策略、量化及ESG、固收、大宗、外汇等各组对于当前中国经 济、市场和资产价格的最新观点和数据更新。近120页的图册提供了对于中国市场的一个全景式展示和介绍，这对于希望快速了解中国市场的投资者是 一个很好的总结和更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 日录 | • 中金研究团队介绍 ………………… – p. 2 | | | --- | --- | | • 宏观经济 … | p. 3 | | ● 市场策略 | p. 14 | | • 量化及ESG | | | ● 固定收益 … | p. 51 | | ● 大宗商品 . | p. 81 | | · 外汇研究 . | p. 97 | 注： 除特别说明，本产品中所有价格数据均截至2026年1月19日 返回目ঙ | | 中金研究团队介绍 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观经济 | 市场策略 | 量化及ESG | 固定收益 | 大宗商品 | | · 彭文生 | · 缪延亮 | · 刘均伟 | · 陈健恒 | · 郭朝辉 | | · 张文朗 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Macau gaming industry is expected to see a total gaming revenue growth of 6% year-on-year in 2026, recovering to 90% of 2019 levels, driven primarily by the robust growth of the mass market segment, while the VIP segment is anticipated to remain under pressure with a projected decline of 6% year-on-year [1][2][4]. Revenue Projections - Total gaming revenue in Macau is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year in 2026, reaching 90% of 2019 levels, mainly due to the steady growth of the mass market segment [2][4]. - Mass market gaming revenue, including slot machines, is expected to increase by 7% year-on-year, recovering to 117% of 2019 levels [2][5]. - VIP gaming revenue is forecasted to decline by 6% year-on-year, only recovering to 30% of 2019 levels, influenced by high win rates in 2025 and conservative credit policies from operators [5][21]. EBITDA and Profitability - The EBITDA margin for the gaming sector is expected to improve by 6% to 24.9% in 2026, primarily due to the closure of satellite casinos, which will enhance profitability, although competition in the Macau Peninsula may slightly impact margins [1][24]. - The closure of satellite casinos is anticipated to lead to a marginal improvement in the overall industry EBITDA margin, with a projected increase from 23.6% in 2025 to 24.9% in 2026 [24][36]. Market Dynamics - The closure of satellite casinos is expected to reshape the competitive landscape in the Macau Peninsula, as the demand from former satellite casino customers will still exist, potentially benefiting nearby casinos [10][21]. - The mass market segment is likely to continue driving the industry, supported by diversified entertainment activities, favorable exchange rates, and a strong global capital market enhancing overseas demand [1][24]. Visitor Trends and Demand - Macau has transformed into an "activity city," hosting various large-scale entertainment events, which is expected to attract more visitors and enhance gaming demand [24][25]. - The number of overseas visitors to Macau is projected to continue increasing, driven by the wealth effect from rising capital markets in neighboring regions [26]. Regulatory Environment - The increase in royalty fees by operators, such as MGM China, may lead to concerns among investors regarding potential similar adjustments across the industry, which could pressure valuations [28][29]. - The Macau government may intervene in the industry, potentially affecting dividend distributions and operational efficiency, although these proposals have not been finalized in the latest gaming law [31][39]. Valuation Adjustments - The valuation basis for the gaming sector has been adjusted from EV/Adjusted EBITDA to EV/EBITDA to more accurately reflect operational performance amid changing royalty rates [39][34]. - The current valuation corresponds to a multiple of 9 times the expected EV/EBITDA for 2026, which is below the pre-pandemic average of 14 times [39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical opportunities and necessary measures for enhancing the internationalization and reserve status of the Renminbi (RMB), emphasizing the need for a multi-faceted approach to overcome existing barriers and challenges [2][17]. Group 1: Characteristics and Determinants of International Reserve Currencies - International reserve currencies are defined as currencies widely accepted for international payments, with their status reflecting a country's comprehensive national strength and international standing [4]. - The three main drivers of a currency's reserve status are market forces, policy support, and historical inertia, with market forces being the most fundamental [4][5]. - The strength of market forces is determined by a currency's ability to meet the three primary demands for foreign exchange reserves: precautionary international payment needs, exchange rate stability needs, and value preservation needs [5][6]. Group 2: Progress and Significance of RMB as a Reserve Currency - Before the 2008 global financial crisis, RMB internationalization was limited, but post-crisis, demand for RMB surged due to China's economic recovery and trade rebound [14]. - The People's Bank of China has actively promoted RMB internationalization by enhancing its use in cross-border trade and investment, including the establishment of various mechanisms for RMB-denominated investments [14][16]. - Despite recent progress, RMB's share in global foreign exchange reserves remains below 2%, indicating significant room for improvement compared to its weight in the SDR basket [17]. Group 3: Main Obstacles to Enhancing RMB's Reserve Currency Status - The primary internal obstacles to RMB's reserve currency status include a mismatch between trade settlement and trade volume, and insufficient development and openness of the financial market [19][20]. - Trade settlement in RMB is significantly lower than China's trade volume, with only 3.87% of global trade settlements conducted in RMB, highlighting the need for increased acceptance and use of RMB in international transactions [22]. - Factors such as market position, financing conditions, and historical inertia contribute to the low adoption of RMB for trade settlements [23][24]. Group 4: "Three Carriages" to Enhance RMB's Reserve Currency Status - The article proposes a "three carriages" approach to enhance RMB's reserve currency status, focusing on promoting cross-border trade settlement in RMB, advancing financial market development and openness, and leveraging regionalization to boost RMB's international use [33][34]. - Key measures include increasing the use of RMB in major commodity imports, providing economic incentives for businesses to settle in RMB, and optimizing cross-border RMB settlement services for key enterprises [35][36]. - Developing both offshore and onshore RMB markets is crucial, with recommendations for improving market infrastructure and expanding the range of RMB-denominated financial products available to international investors [37][38].

以下文章来源于中金公司CICC ，作者中金公司 中金公司CICC . 中国国际金融股份有限公司（中金公司）成立于1995年，致力于为多元化的客户群体提供高质量金融增值服务，建立了以研究和信息技术为基础，投资银 行、股票业务、固定收益、资产管理、私募股权和财富管理全方位发展的均衡业务结构。 1月21日至22日，中金公司周期行业研讨会在上海成功举办。本次会议以"论道周期，乘势而为"为主题，围绕"资源、能源、中游资本品"三大方 向，从宏观、政策、产业等多个维度深入探讨和分析。中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长彭文生出席会议并致开幕辞。 聚焦宏观修复与产业重估，探讨周期⾏业新机遇 在当前经济运行逐步企稳、产业结构持续演进的背景下，周期行业正处于新一轮调整与重估的重要阶段。来自能源、资源及中游资本品等领域的十余 位产业嘉宾与中金研究团队展开深入交流，共同探讨周期行业运行逻辑的变化及潜在投资机会。会议吸引了近1200名投资界、产业界和学术界的嘉 宾报名参会。 中金公司研究部首席宏观分析师张文朗作"双变局重塑资产配置"主题发言。来自建材、矿业及石化行业的多位产业嘉宾分别发表主题演讲，从行业实 践角度分享对周 ...