Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 大模型时序模型TSFM 近年来，以大规模语言模型（LLM）为代表的基础模型（Foundation Models, FMs）在自然语言处理（NLP）和计算机视觉（CV）领域取得了一定成功， 这启发了时序基础模型（Time-Series Foundation Models, TSFMs）的诞生，其核心理念是：通过在规模庞大、领域多样的时序数据语料库上进行预训练， 构建一个通用的、与任务无关的模型，该模型能够以少量甚至无需额外训练的方式，适应各种下游任务。 TSFM的根本优势在于其泛化能力和迁移学习能力。通过在大量时间点上进行学习，模型能够捕捉普适性的时间模式、趋势和季节性规律。这种零样本学 习的新模式可以让模型直接在训练期间从未见过的新任务或新数据集上进行推理应用，无需任何额外的参数调整。该特性在金融领域较为重要，当面对新 上市的金融工具或数据记录有限的新兴市场时，传统模型往往因数据稀疏而难以获得较好的训练效果。 由于金融时序数据具有低信噪比、强非平稳性等特征，通用时序基础模型在应用于金融预测时往往表现不佳。为了解决这一根本性的"领域错位"问题，清 华大学团队开发了 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年4月以来，中国对美国出口下降，而对非美地区出口则整体上升。 2025年4-8月中国对美国出口同比-25.4%，而前三个月同比累计上升5.0%，对欧 盟、东盟、日本、拉美、非洲出口同比分别为9.5%、18.3%、6.0%、4.0%、32.2%（1-3月分别为4.1%、7.8%、2.8%、9.7%、10.8%）。2025年4-7月美国从 中国进口同比-35.6%，而前三个月同比累计上升5.2%，从欧盟、东盟、日本、墨西哥、非洲进口同比分别为-1.3%、30.7%、0.0%、4.3%、6.5%（1-3月分 别为36.0%、27.6%、2.4%、9.7%、44.2%）。其中，中国对东盟出口以及美国从东盟进口皆上升。从对同比增速的拉动来看，2025年4-8月中国对美国、 东盟的出口分别拉动其整体出口-3.8、3.0个百分点（1-3月为0.7、1.3个百分点），2025年4-7月美国从中国、东盟进口分别拉动其整体进口-4.6、3.3个百分 点（1-3月为0.7、2.8个百分点）。我们认为，转口效应并非上述出口结构变化的主因。 关税背景下的出口前置效应对出口结构有一定影响。 从4月5日至8 ...

中金研究 随着低空经济战略的深入推进，无人机正重构城市治理与服务新生态。从助力警务精准执法、破解高层消防难题，到赋能环境实时监测、保障应急通 信畅通，无人机打破地面场景束缚，显著提升城市运行效能，加速城市治理向数字化、智能化升级。建议重点关注低空经济与城市安全建设战略协同 发展催生的投资机会。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 在城市化压力凸显与公众社会治理需求升级的双重驱动下，城市治理类无人机迎来发展契机。 随着我国城市化进程加快，截至2025年6月，机动车保有量 超4.6亿辆，交通拥堵问题严重；超百万栋高层建筑带来火灾隐患；流动人口增长也提升了公共安全事件预警需求，城市运行压力显增。无人机凭高空视 角、灵活快速部署优势有望发挥重要作用。 国家地方多维政策体系发力，为无人机赋能城市安全筑牢支撑。 国家层面，《国家安全法》筑牢法律根基，民航局规划促其规范应用；地方层面，深 圳、上海、北京等地近年也出台方案，推动无人机在警务、安防保障等领域应用。 城市无人机在安防、消防应急、环保监控等场景潜在市场空间广阔，全产业链迎发展机遇。 根据我们的测算，城市安防场景/消防及应急救援/环保监控场 景的潜在总市场空间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant changes in the list of delegated investment institutions by European pension funds, particularly the PFZW, are primarily driven by a shift towards sustainability and ESG considerations [3][4][12]. Group 1: Changes in Delegated Investment Institutions - On September 3, PFZW announced the termination of partnerships with Blackrock, L&G, and AQR Capital, which collectively managed 50.9% of its assets [9][12]. - The shift in PFZW's investment strategy emphasizes sustainability, with a focus on climate goals and reducing carbon emissions [3][12]. - PFZW's absolute carbon emissions decreased by 45% from 2019 to 2024, but it still falls short of its 50% reduction target by 2030 [15][17]. Group 2: Trends in European Pension Funds - European pension funds are experiencing a slowdown in divestment from high-carbon industries, with a rebound in investments in fossil fuels observed in 2023, rising to approximately 11.5% of total assets [28]. - A significant increase in the number of pension funds setting climate-related goals has been noted, with many establishing targets for fossil fuel divestment and carbon reduction [31][33]. - Climate voting has emerged as a preferred method for pension funds to influence corporate behavior and achieve climate objectives, driven by both internal strategies and external regulatory pressures [5][35]. Group 3: Impact of Climate Voting - Analysis indicates that climate voting positively correlates with reduced carbon footprints and does not negatively impact portfolio returns, suggesting a "cost-effective" approach for investors [39][40]. - The study found that increasing the proportion of supportive climate votes is associated with lower future carbon emissions and higher total returns [39][40]. - Climate voting is seen as a critical tool for managing climate risks within investment portfolios, with recommendations for asset owners to consider climate responsibility in their selection of asset managers [44][45]. Group 4: Recommendations for Chinese Investors - The climate action logic observed in European pension funds can provide valuable insights for the Chinese market, advocating for supporting the transition of high-carbon industries rather than outright divestment [44][45]. - Chinese asset owners and managers are encouraged to prioritize climate voting as a means to influence corporate low-carbon transition decisions, aligning with national strategies [44][45]. - Suggested focus areas for climate voting policies include setting clear climate goals, encouraging carbon emissions disclosure, and integrating climate risk into overall risk management frameworks [46].

中金研究 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 港股风格的轮动特点及影响因素 作 为港股市场内讨论度较高的两个细分风格，港股科技与红利风格长期收益负向相关，存在明显轮动现象，短期优势月频轮动，长期优势平均延续超半 年。 我们以指数来表征对应风格的收益表现，分别统计了恒生系以及中证系港股通科技与红利指数的超额收益表现，发现：1）恒生系与中证系港股通的 超额收益从2020年年中开始维持强正相关且趋于稳定；2）港股的红利与科技风格超额收益从2020年年中至今呈现强负相关，适合构建风格轮动策略；3） 科技与红利风格的轮动速度适中，短期优势月频轮动，长期优势平均延续超半年。 验证了港股风格存在一定轮动现象后，我们从五个维度找寻风格轮动背后的影响因素，分别是宏观经济类、资金类、市场类、基本面类和估值类指标。 由于港股风格短期优势呈现月频轮动，且大部分宏观指标均为月度更新，因此我们将所有的指标均统一为月度频率。 岭逻辑回归下的多因子风格轮动模型框架 本文从论证港股的风格轮动效应入手，构建了基于五大类信息的多因子模型，在中证港股通科技与红利指数上月度轮动，使用岭逻辑回归模型以及简 单二分类捕捉风格切换，取得19.50%的年化收益以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation in US-China trade tensions is expected to have a weaker impact on A-shares compared to previous events, with a continued revaluation of Chinese assets anticipated in the medium term [3][4]. Market Impact - The US plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has led to significant declines in global equity markets and commodities [2][3]. - Major indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced declines of 3.6% and 2.7%, respectively, marking the largest single-day drops since April [2]. - A-shares, including the ChiNext and Hang Seng Tech Index, also saw declines of 5.6% and 3.3% respectively, indicating a broader market reaction [2]. Industry Analysis - **Machinery, Military, and Shipbuilding**: Increased focus on "self-sufficiency" and "security" assets is expected, with scientific instruments and high-end machine tools being particularly relevant [3]. - **Aerospace Engine Supply Chain**: There is potential for further improvement in domestic aerospace engine self-sufficiency, which is currently highly dependent on external sources [4]. - **Software**: Attention is drawn to industrial software and EDA design tools that may be primarily targeted by new tariffs [4]. - **Power Equipment and New Energy**: The energy storage cell segment may face restrictions similar to those seen in April, impacting leading companies in the new energy sector [4]. - **Photovoltaics**: The marginal impact of US tariff policies on the photovoltaic industry is expected to be limited [4]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: The comprehensive and deepened export controls on rare earths signal significant strategic implications, with current export volumes remaining stable [4]. Valuation Insights - A-shares are currently assessed to be within a reasonable valuation range, with the CSI 300 index trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.5x, slightly above its historical average [6][7]. - Compared to global markets, A-shares remain relatively undervalued, with the S&P 500 and other major indices trading at higher forward P/E ratios [6]. - The relative attractiveness of equities remains, with the CSI 300 index's dividend yield at approximately 2.6%, compared to the yield on ten-year government bonds [6][7]. Market Positioning - The current market environment suggests a potential for short-term adjustments, particularly in growth sectors that have seen significant gains [5][6]. - The valuation of A-shares relative to GDP and M2 is low, indicating room for growth and investment opportunities [7][12].

点击小程序查看报告原文 Hibor[1]（Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate，香港银行同业拆息）是每日香港20家大型银行隔夜拆借利率报价的平均利率，反映银行间市场 流动性。5月初Hibor从与美元基本持平的4%以上骤降至0附近，此后低位徘徊三个月之久，直到8月中旬才连续抬升。基于香港联系汇率制度 和利率平价理论，Hibor和美元利率之间的利差本应无法长期持续。 但为何5-7月Hibor能够脱离仍在高位的美元利率三个多月维持低位？ 我们 认为，"去美元"趋势下美元资产的吸引力被削弱，导致美元与港币间的套息和套利交易规模不足以快速推升Hibor。 5-7月Hibor长达三个多月 维持低位， 与我们此前提到的黄金大涨（《 黄金定价的国际货币体系视角 》）、资金流入中国（《 货币秩序重构下的资产变局 》）、美元 不升反贬（《 不同寻常的美元周期 》）等异象一致， 都是当前国际货币体系重构的折射 （《 美元霸权的"使用"与"动摇" 》、《 对等关税后 中美经济与市场比较——从美元"不升反贬"看宏观范式转换 》等）。往前看，"去美元化"趋势下，Hibor的波动特征可能较以往更具独立性， 成为 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 10月10日，中美贸易摩擦骤然升级。特朗普宣布，将于11月1日起对华加征100%的额外全面关税，并对关键软件产品实施新的出口管制。受此影响，市场 剧烈动荡，纳斯达克指数大跌3.6%，VIX指数跳升至22，都是4月初"对等关税"以来的最大波动。与此同时，比特币下跌5.6%，中概股金龙指数大跌 6.1%，原油下跌3.8%，恒生科技期货跌3.6%，现货黄金再度突破4000美元/盎司，10年美债利率一度跌至4%，呈现出明显的避险交易特征。结合周五白天 交易时段A股和港股成长科技板块同样大幅回调，似乎4月对等关税后的动荡"昨日重现"。 那么，关税为何再度突然"升级"，后续可能如何演变？当前宏观与市场环境与当时有哪些异同，是否会重演4月"对等关税"后的动荡局面？关税升级是否 会改变中美宏观与市场周期原本的路径，又该如何应对？ 发生了什么？中美贸易摩擦骤然升级，中国加强稀土管制，美国大幅提高关税 资料来源：USTR，中国交通运输部，中金公司研究部 2) 稀土出口管制： 中国在稀土领域拥有领先地位，2024年开采份额占全球的61%，但更为重要的是90%以上的精炼环节都集中在中国。稀土管制作为"先 手" ...

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market has maintained a robust supply and demand dynamic since 2025, with increasing market attention and a total of 127 valid questionnaires collected during the annual market survey conducted from September 25 to September 30 [2] Group 1: Market Participants and Investment Strategies - Securities firms and insurance institutions are the main participants in the market, with over 30% of insurance and over 40% of securities firms having cumulative investments exceeding 1 billion yuan [4][11] - Institutions are diversifying their investment strategies, with a high interest in new issuance strategies, while over 30% of institutions are exploring private REITs investment opportunities [4][16] - The majority of institutions still rely on offline/public subscription and secondary market participation as their main investment methods, with a notable increase in the use of entrusted accounts for REITs investments [4][16] Group 2: Market Size and Liquidity Concerns - Market size and liquidity remain significant concerns, with many investors indicating that the market is still too small and lacks sufficient liquidity, similar to last year's survey results [5][29] - Nearly 70% of sample institutions plan to increase their REITs allocation in 2026, focusing on sectors such as consumption, data centers, and affordable rental housing [5][33] - Institutions have a cautious outlook on returns, with about 60% expecting REITs market returns to be in the high single-digit range (5-10%) for 2026 [5][33] Group 3: Private REITs and Future Outlook - Over 30% of institutions are paying attention to private REITs, which have seen a faster issuance pace this year, with 14 listed holding-type real estate ABS totaling 21.4 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [23] - Institutions perceive private REITs as having advantages such as stronger valuation stability, flexibility, and higher distribution rates compared to public REITs, although concerns about liquidity and transparency remain [23][29] - The market is expected to see a gradual increase in private REITs issuance, which could become an important part of a multi-tiered REITs market [23] Group 4: Institutional Confidence and Sector Focus - Institutions exhibit a neutral to optimistic attitude towards the recovery of underlying asset fundamentals in 2026, with a focus on stable sectors such as consumption infrastructure, data centers, and affordable rental housing [41] - The top three sectors of interest for insurance and securities firms differ slightly, with insurance firms favoring consumption, affordable housing, and water and electricity, while securities firms prefer consumption, data centers, and affordable housing [41][44]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 stocks globally [1]. Research Insights - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through CICC Morning Report [4]. - Senior analysts offer real-time interpretations of market hotspots via public live broadcasts [4]. Research Reports - The platform offers over 30,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. - It features more than 160 industry research frameworks and over 40 premium databases, enhancing the depth of analysis available [10]. Data and Research Framework - The platform includes a sophisticated AI search function that allows users to filter key points and engage in intelligent Q&A [10].