点击小程序查看报告原文 引言：5500美元是黄金能触及的天花板，还是划时代变化刚开始的起点？ 开年短短一个月，黄金的 表现 就创下多项记录： 1）上涨斜率几乎超出了所有人的预期，虽然看多黄金是市场的主流，但短短一个月内涨幅高达25%， 还是80年代以来的首次，即便对于大多数黄金多头而言恐怕也始料未及；2）转眼间短暂超过5500美元/盎司后"满减"，一天之内跌幅超过10%，也是1984 年以来的前所未见。 在这一急涨与暴跌交织的巨震面前，任何点位测算都显得苍白且无力，是因为 ：1）金价显然已超越单纯的基本面主导，所以传统的黄金测算模型如实际 利率已经早早失效；2）影响更大的地缘与货币体系重构的宏大叙事又很难给出具体兑现的时间表，反而给人以短期可以任意遐想的空间；3）短期内黄金 急涨有很大情绪和资金驱动，更使得节奏难以把握。 图表1：2022年后黄金和实际利率脱锚 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 图表2：我们构建的美元、实际利率、不确定性和动量四因子模型近期对金价解释力度下降 资料来源：Bloomberg，Wind，中金公司研究部 这 三 点决定了对金价的测算很难兼顾方向与时间，更不用说过程中上下起伏的节奏了 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 2026年1月30日，特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席[1]。沃什主张通过"缩表+降息"来降低利率，并主张对美联储进行"体制性调整"，重建货币政 策的可信度。我们认为，沃什的"鹰派"主要体现在美联储资产负债表方面，而在降息方面则较为"鸽派"。特朗普之所以提名他，不仅因为他倾向降低利 率，也因其主张对建制派长期主导的货币政策框架进行重构，符合特朗普"破旧立新"的政治叙事。短期来看，沃什的提名对降息路径影响有限，但可能导 致美元流动性的预期修正，美元贬值压力或阶段性缓和，由流动性推动的投机性资产将更易受到冲击。中期来看，沃什的主张面临来自美联储内部、资本 市场以及财政的约束，最终能否成功，还很难下定论。 但与此同时，也不应低估其政策调整的意愿。特朗普"美国优先"的政策思维，未来数年也可 能在 美联储的政策实践中逐步显现。对于这一潜在变化，投资者也应未雨绸缪、有所准备。 1、沃什有哪些核心主张？ 沃什最与众不同的主张是通过 "缩表+降息" 来降低利率。他认为当前的美联储政策框架无法推动利率下行。自2024年9月以来，尽管美联储累计降息175 个基点，长期美债收益率却不降反升，这表明市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in trading sentiment, with transaction volumes reaching historical highs, indicating a strong upward trend since mid-December 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 17-day consecutive rise, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, with average daily transaction volumes exceeding 30 trillion yuan since the beginning of 2026 [1]. - The market's active trading environment is characterized by a high turnover rate of 5.7%, the most active since 2015, with a record transaction amount of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026 [1][12]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors have been increasingly entering the market, with an average of 2.43 million new accounts opened monthly in Q4 2025, driven by a "scarcity of assets" and the relative attractiveness of the stock market [2][18]. - High-risk preference funds, including margin financing and private equity, have seen significant increases in their positions, with margin financing balances surpassing 2.7 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][16]. Group 3: Fund Flows - Stock ETFs have experienced a shift in growth momentum, with significant inflows into industry-themed ETFs, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and aerospace, reflecting changing investor preferences [3][22]. - Northbound capital has shown a gradual return to the A-share market, with a net inflow of 117 billion yuan in Q4 2025, as global monetary conditions favor Chinese assets [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds have accelerated their entry into the market, with stock and securities investments reaching 5.6 trillion yuan, the highest since 2013, indicating a growing commitment to equity investments [5][26]. - Active funds have regained excess returns, with the mixed equity fund index yielding 11.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 7 percentage points, leading to a positive trend in fund issuance and redemption [5][28]. Group 5: Sector Focus - Institutional investors have increased their focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals and telecommunications, while reducing exposure to electronics and biopharmaceuticals, reflecting a strategic shift in portfolio allocations [8][34]. - The market is expected to maintain a relatively active trading sentiment, supported by low interest rates and a favorable environment for equity investments, with potential for further inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [9][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services through the integration of insights from over 30 specialized teams and a comprehensive coverage of more than 1,800 stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Focus and Updates - Daily updates on research focus and timely push of selected articles are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - Senior analysts are available for live interpretations of market hotspots, ensuring that clients receive real-time insights [4]. Group 3: Research Reports and Data - The platform features over 3,000 complete research reports covering macroeconomics, industry research, and commodities [9]. - It includes more than 160 industry research frameworks and 40 premium databases, along with a sophisticated data dashboard [10].

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 特朗普想"要"什么？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 2026年伊始，特朗普的诸多举措和言论再度超预期，引发市场大幅波动，美国更是一度出现"股债汇三杀"。从去年8月美国对多个经济体"对等关 税"下降、10月中美关税暂缓一年，好不容易消停几个月，现在一下子又把大家拉回到去年四月份"对等关税"时"熟悉的感觉"。美国政策不确定性 因此再次抬头向上，美股与美债的波动率也随之上升。在手段之外，理解特朗普所有政策背后的目的更为重要，在实现这些目的过程中，有些过激 手段会造成剧烈波动，有些方式反而会适得其反。这种通过观察手段、也了解目的的方式，可以帮助我们更好的透过现象看本质，理解这些政策对 美国宏观和市场的影响，也可以观察特朗普的约束所在。 2026.1.25 | 刘刚 郝悦宁 杨萱庭 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 美联储按兵不动，降息时点或推迟 >>点击图片查看全文<< >>点击图片查看全文<< 美联储在1月会议上维持利率不变，符合市场预期。理事沃勒投下反对票，或与其希望被提名为下一任美联储主席有关。货币政策声明称"失业率已 ...

以下文章来源于中金研究院 ，作者创新经济组 欢迎来到中金机器人播客。我是周子彭，在这里，我将与中国最优秀的创业者、投资人和研究者进行 深入对话，共同探索机器人发展的最前沿。 中金研究院 . 中金研究院 (CICC Global Institute，缩写 CGI)作为中金公司一级部门，定位为新时代、新形势下的新型 智库，服务于中国公共政策研究与决策，参与国际政策讨论和交流，并为中国金融市场尤其是资本市场 发展建言献策。 本期内容 第八期嘉宾：王潜 自变量机器人创始人兼CEO 本期时间线 | 00:00:00 | 开场：具身智能的"冲浪"时刻与王潜博士的背景 | | --- | --- | | 00:03:03 | 顶级学者的遗憾：当年为何错过了 Transformer，又为何坚定回归机器人？ | | 00:06:53 | 范式转移：GPT-3 带来的启示，机器人领域苦寻 80 年的"金钥匙" | | 00:10:38 | 物理世界的 Scaling Law：从"机器制造机器"到星际殖民的资源指数增长 | | 00:15:51 | 路线之争：为何坚持"端到端"统一大模型？分层架构的 Trade-off 与局限 | ...

Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 期权IV情绪指标择时准确度高 2025年以来，市场整体步入上涨周期，但中间亦有波折。在市场震荡期，我们样本外跟踪期权隐含波动率（Implied volatility, IV）情绪指标发现，该指 标对于周度到月度频率的涨跌判断有较高的敏感度和准确率。在2025年8月底，11月中及时提示市场情绪变化，并发出相应调整信号。 2025年样本外 （2025年4月以来）实现32%的策略收益，相较于中证1000指数本身实现15%的超额收益。 期权策略可有效管理组合风险 除了提供市场交易情绪信息，作为具有独特收益结构的衍生工具，期权能帮助投资者在保留上行收益空间情况下，对冲下行风险，提升收益风险比。我们 2025年在衍生品月报系列中持续跟踪了多种期权组合策略，2025年表现较好的策略为卖沽策略， 该策略在中证500、中证1000、科创50ETF期权上均有较 好表现， 2025年超额收益为8.7%、9.6%和3.5%。其他策略如备兑策略和保护性认沽策略在2025年整体上涨环境下则难以跑赢指数或ETF本身，但长期来 看这一类对冲策略都充分起到了平滑收益曲线，提升夏普比率的作用。 国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is the largest market for heated non-combustible (HNB) tobacco globally, with a strong growth momentum expected in the industry. The competition has intensified recently, but companies with core technological advantages and proprietary patents are likely to navigate through this competitive cycle successfully [4][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - Japan accounts for approximately 32% of the global HNB market, with a retail market size projected to reach about $11.92 billion in 2024 and expand to $17.76 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 8% from 2024 to 2029 [6][24]. - The penetration rate of HNB products in Japan has reached around 44% in 2024, with expectations to rise to 56% by 2029, driven by a shift from traditional cigarettes to HNB products among smokers [14][16]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the Japanese HNB market has intensified in the short term, particularly among international tobacco companies focusing on product pricing and distribution channels. British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco are competing aggressively in the mid-range market, while Philip Morris International maintains a stable market share [4][29]. - The market is dominated by three major players: Philip Morris, Japan Tobacco, and British American Tobacco, with Philip Morris holding a significant market share of 69.8% in HNB products as of 2024 [30][35]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - HNB products are the only legal category of new tobacco in Japan, while nicotine-containing e-cigarettes are subject to strict medical device regulations, limiting their market presence [18][19]. - The Japanese government has been adjusting the tax structure for HNB products to align more closely with traditional cigarettes, which is expected to stabilize the market and support industry growth [20][21]. Group 4: Pricing and Consumer Acceptance - HNB products are priced in the mid-to-high range compared to traditional cigarettes, with consumers showing a high acceptance level for these prices, which supports the growth of HNB penetration [26][28]. - The pricing strategy for HNB products is designed to encourage consumer retention, as the initial investment in heating devices can lead to lower marginal costs per use over time [26][28]. Group 5: Technological Barriers - The core technological capabilities and patent ownership are critical barriers to entry in the HNB market, with companies that can innovate and improve product performance likely to gain a competitive edge [4][44]. - The ongoing technological advancements in HNB products are expected to shape the competitive landscape, with companies focusing on product differentiation and user experience [33][42].

中金研究 产业园 77只REITs公布四季报，我们于本报告分析四季报中重要信息。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 基本面：分化延续，关注企稳信号。 1）产业园： 板块仍处于调整周期，部分项目以价换量后出租率阶段性企稳，短期价格端或仍面临压力。 2）物流仓 储： 板块出租率阶段性企稳，其中关联租户及头部运营商项目展现出经营韧性。3 ）保租房： 整体经营稳健，部分项目出租率受租赁淡季影响环比小幅 下滑；租金走势分化，其中市场化保租房项目租金表现弱于政策性保租房。 4）消费： 延续良好的经营态势，个体收入表现受季节性波动、主动管理等因 素影响。 5）数据中心： 整体利用率保持高位，运营维持稳健。 6）高速： 四季度受季节性和路网变化影响，多数项目同环比表现均承压。全年维度车流 量和通行费小幅承压。 7）市政环保及能源： 市政环保项目业绩同比向好 ；能源项目延续分化态势，对比看四季度表现：新能源>水电>燃气。 季度可供分配金额同比提升，管理人积极作为，采用多种方式对冲业绩下行带来的波动，平均完成度录得26%。 我们测算可比口径下REITs四季度整体可 供分配环比下滑16%（主要由经营权REITs带来） ...

中金研究 美联储在1月会议上维持利率不变，符合市场预期。理事沃勒投下反对票，或与其希望被提名为下一任美联储主席有关。货币政策声明称"失业率已趋 于稳定"，鲍威尔表示货币政策"处于合适位置"，显示短期内再次降息的门槛提高。除此之外，鲍威尔并未提供太多指引，他也回避了其它与利率制定 不相干的问题。我们认为美联储在2026年仍有望降息两次，但首次降息或推迟至第二季度。美国经济的核心问题并非增长不足，而在于收入分配不平 衡和普通家庭的可负担压力。这类结构性问题并非单靠货币就能解决，反而可能推动政府采取更多非市场化的干预性政策，来回应选民的关切。 美联储按兵不动，理事沃勒主张降息。 美联储FOMC会议维持利率不变，货币政策声明称"就业增长低迷，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀仍处于 较高水平"[1]。过去一年中，劳动力市场已明显降温，但失业率在12月从前一个月的4.5%回落至4.4%，一定程度上缓解了联储对就业进一步恶化的担忧。 与此同时，通胀虽有放缓迹象，但仍明显高于美联储2%的目标。在这一背景下，决策者选择暂时按兵不动。 不过，本次决议并非一致通过。两名官员——美联储理事米兰和沃勒——投下反对票，主张降息25个基 ...