中金研究 党的二十届四中全会于2025年10月20日至23日在北京举行，会议公报于10月23日发布，会议审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》[1]。中国的2035远期目标并未变化，但相比"十四五"规划发布时，当前的发展条件发生了若干变化，我 们以三个方面为例。一是自主科技创新取得了显著进步，积累了丰富经验；二是房地产调整，经济结构改善，但需求偏弱；三是地缘环境 发生深刻调整。面对这些变化，"十五五"规划也将进行相应调整。比如，1）提高对科技创新的要求（抢占科技发展制高点）；2）强调扩 大内需 ； 3）把开放提到了更加靠前的位置。这些方向有助于我们理解"十五五"规划的主线。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？请听中金公司总量及行业为您联合解读。 宏观：新环境下的三条主线 "十四五"是中国金融周期见顶转向、经济加速转型的关键时期。 金融周期是指房价和信贷互相加强而形成的大周期，金融周期调整后，经济 发展模式由较多依赖房地产和传统基建转向更加依靠新经济的发展模式。"十四五"期间经济增速下行压力加大，但经济结构得以改善，经济发 展的质量得到提高。《第二十届中央委员 ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on the application of event signals in the A-share market and the construction of strategies based on these signals [2][11] - Short-term event signals show a high win rate and can capture market inefficiencies, while long-term event signals indicate potential investment opportunities but require multi-dimensional analysis for better certainty [11][25] Short-term Event Signals - Short-term events include high dividend announcements, deep report coverage recommendations after a year, upward profit forecast adjustments, earnings announcements exceeding consensus expectations by 20%, and index inclusion announcements [12][13] - The cumulative excess return win rate for these events is close to 60% within 20 trading days, indicating significant market reaction inefficiencies [4][12] - A strategy based on these short-term events has achieved an annualized return of 18.0% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.47 from 2015 to 2025, with positive returns even in years of high systemic risk [4][41] Long-term Event Signals - Long-term events include announcements of share buybacks, upward profit forecast adjustments, and stock incentive plans, which generally have a higher risk-reward ratio and moderate win rates [5][25] - The annualized excess return for a strategy based on long-term events can reach 14%, with a significant portion of excess returns generated from 2021 to 2025 [5][25] - Basic factors such as shareholder count changes and earnings quality contribute positively to long-term event strategies, while price-volume factors show limited effectiveness [5][25] Mechanisms of Excess Returns - Excess returns arise from the mispricing of stocks relative to their actual value, driven by factors such as market overreaction, underreaction to positive news, and specific fund flows during index adjustments [7][8][9] - Short-term price deviations often occur due to market sentiment and insufficient reactions to positive earnings announcements, particularly in small-cap stocks [8][14] - Long-term price deviations can be attributed to low market attention and insufficient pricing of fundamental trends, which can be exploited through in-depth fundamental analysis [9][25] Strategy Optimization - The report suggests optimizing short-term event signals by incorporating robust growth factors and liquidity factors to enhance returns [28][39] - For index adjustment events, the strategy should focus on stocks with low prior performance and good liquidity, as these factors have shown predictive power for future returns [39][41] - The strategy's performance is sensitive to the amount invested per signal, with recommendations to keep individual signal investments below 20 million yuan to maintain optimal returns [46][47]

中金研究 中金公司研究部发布了2025年四季度图说中国，本产品汇集了中金公司研究部宏观、策略、量化及ESG、固收、大宗、外汇等各组对于当前中 国经济、市场和资产价格的最新观点和数据更新。近120页的图册提供了对于中国市场的一个全景式展示和介绍，这对于希望快速了解中国市场 的投资者是一个很好的总结和更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 | • 中金研究团队介绍 | | | --- | --- | | • 宏观经济 … | p. 3 | | • 市场策略 | | | • 量化及ESG | | | ● 固定收益 …………………………… p. 50 | | | ● 大宗商品 | | | · 外汇研究 . | p. 93 | 注： 除特别说明，本产品中所有价格数据均截至2025年10月20日 中金研究团队介绍 宏观经济 市场策略 大宗商品 量化及ESG 固定收益 · 刘均伟 · 彭文生 · 缪延亮 · 陈健恒 · 郭朝辉 · 刘刚, CFA · 周萧潇 · 许艳 · 张文朗 · 王炙鹿 · 李求索 · 胡骥聪 · 黄文静 · 韦璐璐 • 陈雷 · 李昭 ・ 古翔 · 张峻栋 · 雷文斌 · 李林惠 · 黄凯松 · 孙丁茜 · ...

点击小程序查看原文 摘要 往前看，市场关注点或聚焦10月中下旬的四中全会和"十五五"规划。 10月中下旬的四中全会将审议"十五五"规划建议。2005年以来，五年规划整体聚焦 两大主线：消费和科技，两大主线长期跑赢大盘。而在短期内，规划重点支持相关行业整体大概率跑出超额收益。"十五五"规划（ 《"十五五"的潜在政策 动态》 ）可能仍然延续内需和科技两大主线，但具体政策和相关重点行业仍需跟踪观察。 Text 正文 核心交易主线 海外方面，9月以来海外市场一波三折。 FOMC于9月如期开启降息提振了风险偏好。但10月起官方数据停更，在缺乏基本面数据的引导后，流动性开始 主导市场，更易受事件驱动，波动加剧。 图表1：WEI显示美国3季度环比年化增速在3.4%-4.2%之间 Abstract 美国方面，在官方关键经济数据停更后，市场对美国经济状态缺乏共识。 从高频数据来看，6月以来 WEI指标趋势触底回升，隐含三季度GDP环比年化增 速在3%以上，美国小企业复苏迹象仍明显，设备投资热潮持续，经济增长韧性仍强。另一方面，基础设施投资和AI应用的普及或正在结构性减少企业雇 佣需求，叠加特朗普政府驱赶非法移民，非农就业中枢或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the weakening of domestic demand and the need for increased policy support as the economy faces growing pressure, with GDP growth falling below 5% for the third quarter [2][3][4]. Economic Performance - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2, indicating increased economic growth pressure [4][5]. - The contribution of capital formation to GDP growth has decreased, while consumption and net exports have increased their contributions [5][6]. - Investment growth has continued to decline, with fixed asset investment showing a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.5% for the first nine months [6][7]. Sector Analysis - Industrial production in September saw a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, supported by external demand, while fixed asset investment has turned negative due to a significant drop in construction and installation projects [6][7]. - The real estate sector continues to show weakness, with new housing sales down by 10.5% year-on-year in September, and development investment declining further [8][26][27]. - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% in September, influenced by the tapering of the "old-for-new" policy and a higher base from the previous year [8][29]. Investment Outlook - The article suggests that to achieve the annual GDP growth target of around 5%, there may be a need for more robust growth-stabilizing policies in the coming months [4][5]. - The manufacturing sector's investment growth has declined but remains better than that of real estate and infrastructure, supported by export resilience and policy backing [6][7]. - The financial sector is expected to benefit from higher market activity, with non-financial sectors like gold and technology hardware anticipated to be structural highlights [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in stock prices of Zions Bank (ZION) and Western Alliance (WAL) are attributed to concerns over loan losses, raising fears about the asset quality issues stemming from previous loose credit conditions and potential systemic financial risks [2][3] Group 1: Risk Origin and Comparison - The current risks faced by U.S. regional banks are primarily credit risks rather than interest rate risks, as analyzed in a previous report [2] - ZION and WAL differ significantly from the previously failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and First Republic Bank (FRC) in terms of liability stability, with ZION and WAL showing no signs of deposit runs [2][3] - The liability structures of ZION and WAL are more stable and diversified compared to SVB and FRC, with uninsured deposits at 43% and 50% respectively, and non-interest-bearing demand deposits at 32% and 28% [2][3] Group 2: Asset Quality and Credit Risk - The asset risks for ZION and WAL are primarily related to credit risk, unlike SVB and FRC, which faced significant interest rate risks due to their long-term bond holdings [3] - ZION and WAL have a higher proportion of loans (62% and 76%) compared to securities investments (30% and 13%), which reduces their exposure to interest rate fluctuations [3] - Current evidence does not suggest that the recent loan risk events are systemic, as the overall loan delinquency rates in the U.S. banking sector remain historically low [3] Group 3: Financial Stability and Systemic Impact - ZION and WAL's potential bad debt exposure is limited, with loan write-offs accounting for only 13% and 8% of their 2024 profits, and impacting their core Tier 1 capital minimally [3][4] - The asset sizes of ZION (888 billion) and WAL (809 billion) are significantly smaller than those of SVB and FRC, indicating that the current risks are more localized and do not pose a systemic threat to the financial system [4] - The high interest rate environment may lead to increased credit risks, but any resulting credit tightening is expected to be moderate unless clear signs of economic recession emerge [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming peak period for the disclosure of Q3 earnings reports for A-share listed companies, highlighting a potential marginal slowdown in domestic growth momentum and the focus on fundamentals amid market fluctuations [2][3]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Q3 earnings growth for A-shares is expected to improve compared to Q2, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% for overall A-shares and 8.2% for non-financial sectors [3][6]. - Retail sales growth has shown a marginal slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% from January to August, down from 5.0% in the first half of the year [3][4]. - The CPI has seen a year-on-year decline of 0.23%, while the PPI has improved slightly with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - Non-bank financial sectors are expected to benefit from high market activity, while gold and technology hardware sectors are anticipated to be structural highlights [4][5]. - The energy and materials sector, particularly the non-ferrous metals segment, is expected to perform well due to rising demand and prices, with gold prices reaching new highs [5][6]. - The consumer sector is facing challenges, with mandatory consumption showing weak demand, while new consumption areas like beauty and trendy products are performing relatively well [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The article suggests focusing on sectors with structural highlights during the earnings disclosure phase, such as the gold sector and TMT sectors benefiting from AI trends [6][8]. - It emphasizes the importance of identifying high-growth opportunities that are less correlated with economic cycles and external risks, particularly in the AI industry and sectors with strong overseas market presence [6][8]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in industries that have undergone supply-side adjustments, including industrial metals, lithium batteries, and commercial vehicles [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual performance of various asset classes in 2023, where traditionally opposing assets such as gold, dividends, and growth stocks have shown simultaneous gains, challenging the conventional inflation and deflation asset pricing framework [2][6][7]. Group 1: Asset Performance Analysis - In the first quarter of 2023, gold and growth stocks rose together, followed by a period in the second quarter where dividends and growth stocks also increased, and again in the third quarter where gold and growth stocks performed well together [2][4]. - The traditional asset pricing theory suggests that gold benefits from inflation, dividends are more attractive in deflationary environments, and growth stocks thrive in moderate inflation and risk-on conditions [6][7]. - The article posits that the current market dynamics cannot be solely explained by inflation or deflation, indicating that other factors, such as geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, are influencing asset prices [7][11]. Group 2: Macro Environment and Credit Cycles - The macroeconomic environment in China is characterized by a decline in overall prices, particularly in PPI, while excess liquidity is causing "scarce" assets to appreciate, reflecting a localized inflation phenomenon [11][15]. - The article emphasizes that the credit cycle framework is a more effective tool for understanding asset rotation in China, as it considers the underlying causes of inflation and deflation rather than just the outcomes [16][17]. - The credit cycle can be influenced by three main factors: new industry trends (e.g., AI), government-led fiscal stimulus, and traditional demand from the private sector [19][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article forecasts that the credit cycle in China is likely to shift towards a "fiscal strong + credit weak" or "fiscal weak + credit weak" phase, influenced by high base effects and slowing fiscal stimulus [28][36]. - Key indicators such as the broad fiscal deficit pulse and private sector credit pulse are expected to show downward trends, indicating a potential tightening of credit conditions [30][32]. - The article concludes that without significant policy intervention, the market is likely to continue along its current trajectory, focusing on sectors that remain resilient amid a weakening credit cycle [36][37].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the "human-centered" management philosophy of Pang Donglai, which has significant implications for the retail industry, showcasing how a focus on employee and customer happiness can drive business success [2][3][39]. Group 1: Business Model and Growth - Pang Donglai has evolved from a small grocery store in 1995 to a comprehensive retail group with 13 stores in Xuchang and Xinxiang, generating sales of 17 billion yuan in 2024 and 18 billion yuan by October 2025 [3][12][14]. - The company operates under a multi-format model, including supermarkets and shopping centers, and has established a strong brand presence through its commitment to quality and customer service [6][16]. Group 2: Employee Engagement and Welfare - Pang Donglai's corporate culture emphasizes deep integration of employee and company values, offering competitive salaries (average monthly income of 9,000 yuan) and extensive benefits, resulting in a low employee turnover rate of 1-2% [3][24][25]. - The company provides a supportive work environment with 30 days of paid annual leave, comprehensive health insurance for employees and their families, and various incentives for performance and well-being [24][25][27]. Group 3: Product Quality and Customer Experience - The core advantage of Pang Donglai lies in its commitment to high quality and cost-effectiveness, focusing on quality consumption rather than just low prices, which builds customer trust and loyalty [3][28][30]. - The company employs a meticulous selection process for suppliers and implements strict quality control measures, ensuring that products meet high standards and are transparently communicated to customers [28][30][33]. Group 4: Innovative Retail Strategies - Pang Donglai redefines retail logic through a "scene thinking" approach, prioritizing customer experience in store design and service delivery, which includes thoughtful details like pet storage and easy access to information [33][34]. - The company has established a robust after-sales service system, including a generous return policy and quick response to customer complaints, enhancing overall customer satisfaction [34][36]. Group 5: Brand Philosophy and Market Position - The brand philosophy of Pang Donglai centers on creating happiness for employees, customers, and society, moving away from traditional promotional tactics to genuine value delivery [38][39]. - The company's success is attributed to its strong brand equity and social recognition, which have led to organic word-of-mouth marketing and a loyal customer base [38][39]. Group 6: Industry Implications and Learning Opportunities - The article suggests that the principles of Pang Donglai's human-centered approach can be applied across various sectors, highlighting the importance of sincerity and responsiveness in customer interactions [47][51]. - Other companies, such as Yonghui and various service industries, are beginning to adopt similar philosophies, indicating a broader trend towards prioritizing employee and customer well-being in business strategies [51][54][56].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aiming to provide efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 stocks globally [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform is designed to leverage advanced model technology to enhance the quality and efficiency of research services provided to clients [1]. Group 2: Research Focus and Updates - The platform features daily updates on research focuses and timely push notifications of selected articles, ensuring that users stay informed about market trends [4]. - CICC provides live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots, enhancing the accessibility of expert insights [4]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - The platform includes over 160 industry research frameworks and more than 40 premium databases, offering comprehensive data resources for users [10]. - CICC Insight also features an AI search function that allows users to filter key points and engage in intelligent Q&A, facilitating a more interactive research experience [10].