以下文章来源于中金研究院 ，作者徐磊 ► 当前阶段，AI芯片的主导设计收敛、产品通用程度高、客户转移成本高；基础模型的主导设计收敛、知 识来源主要是实践积累、产品通用程度高。所以芯片和模型领域更多展现出强马太效应的特点。垂直应用 领域不存在主导设计，B端产品定制化成分更多，C端产品客户转移成本较低，故整体上马太效应较弱。 ► 相比于熊彼特I型创新模式的产业，后发国家II型产业的创新追赶更需要政府的支持，因为II型产业的马 太效应强。要追赶国外领先企业，我国在芯片和基础模型领域不宜分散投资，建议重点支持国内第一梯队 企业，"投大投强"可能比"投小投早"更合理。同时，由于II型产业的客户转移成本高、知识主要来源于实践 积累，建议政府以公共采购、购买补贴、示范应用等政策工具创造有利于本土芯片和模型厂商的需求环 境，鼓励优先使用本国产品。 ► 风险提示：AI产业出现革命性创新技术，使主导设计发生重大改变。 关键词： 人工智能 基础模型 芯片 马太效应 创新格局 研究员： 徐磊 中金研究院 . 中金研究院 (CICC Global Institute，缩写 CGI)作为中金公司一级部门，定位为新时代、新形势下的新型 智 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 midterm elections are crucial for Trump and the Republican Party, with affordability becoming the central issue for voters, overshadowing traditional economic growth metrics [2][5][7]. Group 1: Political Context - The Republican Party holds a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and losing it could lead to a divided government, limiting Trump's ability to implement policies [5][6]. - Historical trends indicate that the party of the sitting president often loses seats in midterm elections, increasing the risk of impeachment for Trump if the Republicans fail [6][7]. Group 2: Affordability Crisis - High inflation has significantly impacted middle and low-income households, particularly in housing, where affordability has sharply declined since 2022 [2][12]. - The median income required to afford a typical home has increased by 43% compared to the median household income, exacerbated by rising mortgage rates [12][14]. - The burden of debt repayment is rising, with delinquency rates on credit cards and loans nearing previous highs, indicating increased financial stress among households [13][18]. Group 3: Policy Implications - As affordability becomes a primary goal, policy measures may shift towards more direct interventions in pricing and corporate behavior, moving away from traditional macroeconomic policies [3][22]. - Recent actions by Trump include proposals to limit credit card interest rates and push for legislative changes in housing, reflecting a focus on alleviating cost pressures for voters [24][25]. Group 4: Market Impact - The focus on affordability may limit the expansion of index valuations and increase market volatility, as the government prioritizes voter concerns over asset price growth [32]. - Sectors with strong pricing power and high profit margins may face increased policy risks, while cost-benefit industries could become more favorable for investment [32][33]. - Historical examples suggest that aggressive policy interventions can lead to market disruptions, as seen in the 1970s, raising caution among investors regarding potential policy risks [30][31].

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 过去十年，中国钢铁企业的出海战略在供过于求与贸易摩擦的双重推动下逐步形成。钢铁产业从产品出口向产能出海的"走出去"转变并非偶然，钢铁历来 是全球贸易摩擦的高发行业，这既源于其经济战略地位，即上游度高、在产业链中具有关键作用，也源于行业本身的同质化、低附加值特征，使得价格竞 争激烈，并容易成为反补贴和反倾销调查的对象。在这样的背景下，贸易摩擦几乎难以避免，而国际化布局实际上成为钢铁企业应对贸易摩擦的主要手 段。 为了系统解释钢铁企业在应对贸易摩擦中"走出去"路径选择的逻辑，我们提出了基于产品单位价值运输成本与生产可碎片化程度的国际化布局四象限模 型。不同产品根据其单位价值运输成本和生产可碎片化程度，在贸易摩擦加剧时，会采取不同的国际化布局策略。基于四象限分析，当低端钢铁产品出口 面临贸易壁垒时，企业存在两类规避策略：一是通过在目的国直接投资建厂，将低端产能"出海"以规避贸易摩擦；二是通过产品升级，转向高端钢材出 口，即生产技术含量更高、同质化程度更低、附加值更高的产品，从而在全球市场中保持竞争力。 上一轮钢铁"走出去"恰好处于国内供过于求与海外新兴经济体快速工业化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the La Niña phenomenon on global commodity markets, highlighting the increasing uncertainty in pricing due to climate changes and geopolitical factors. It emphasizes the historical correlation between extreme weather events and commodity price fluctuations, indicating that the current weak La Niña may still disrupt supply chains and affect prices across various sectors [3][4][10]. Weather Outlook - A weak La Niña has been established, expected to transition to neutral conditions by spring 2026. The current La Niña is not anticipated to cause widespread cold winters due to global warming trends, but it may still influence global circulation patterns and lead to unusual precipitation anomalies [5][11][16]. - The probability of transitioning to El Niño conditions by the third quarter of 2026 has risen to over 60%, which could increase the frequency of extreme weather events [5][12][22]. Commodity Impact - Weather disturbances are expected to affect different commodity sectors in varied ways, with energy, metals, and agricultural products each responding differently to temperature and precipitation changes [6][35]. Energy Sector - In North America, natural gas prices are expected to rise due to increased heating demand, with NYMEX prices projected to range between $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the off-season [6][36][37]. - European natural gas prices are anticipated to decrease due to low inventory levels despite a warm winter, with TTF prices expected to drop to $9-10 per MMBtu [6][40][42]. Metals Sector - Heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, particularly in Indonesia and South America, leading to increased costs and production interruptions [7][49][50]. - The impact of La Niña on aluminum prices may arise from increased electricity costs due to reduced hydropower generation in affected regions [7][53]. Agricultural Sector - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to have a limited impact on South American soybean production, with Brazil's soybean yield projected to reach 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [8][66][67]. - Palm oil production in Southeast Asia is also expected to remain stable, with short-term bullish expectations despite some localized weather disturbances [8][72].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy changes in urban renewal and housing stock management, emphasizing the importance of these measures in addressing the real estate market's challenges and the need for financing support to enhance the feasibility of housing stock acquisition [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The joint notification from the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development introduces measures to support urban renewal, including a transitional policy allowing for a maximum five-year period where original planning conditions remain unchanged [2]. - The policy aims to enhance the feasibility of acquiring existing housing stock by potentially increasing acquisition prices, addressing previous pricing discrepancies between acquisition and market prices [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since the second half of 2025, the transaction volume of both new and second-hand homes has stabilized at a low level, with a notable decrease in the supply of new land and a reduction in the number of listings in high-tier cities [3]. - The article suggests that the upcoming period post-Spring Festival will be crucial for monitoring changes in natural inventory, which is vital for predicting future housing price trends [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Given the recent increase in real estate policies, there is a recommendation to raise attention towards the real estate sector, particularly in light of the positive changes in supply dynamics and the implementation of housing stock acquisition policies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is significantly influenced by seasonal demand for foreign exchange settlements, particularly in December and January, due to increased corporate funding needs at year-end [1][2][3] Exchange Rate Analysis - The RMB/USD central parity rate typically appreciates in December and January, with average increases of 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, and appreciation probabilities of 75% and 67% [1][3] - In December 2025, the RMB/USD central parity rate appreciated by 0.7%, marking the largest monthly appreciation for the year [2] - The settlement demand in December 2025 was notably high, with banks conducting foreign exchange settlements amounting to $311 billion, which is 53% higher than the average from February to November 2025 [2] Trade Surplus Insights - In 2025, China's trade surplus reached a historical high of $1,189 billion, although its ratio to GDP is lower than the peaks observed before 2008 [1] - Despite external trade frictions, China's export growth remained resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% in dollar terms [1] Financial Cycle Perspective - The evaluation of exchange rates should focus more on financial cycles rather than solely on trade perspectives, as capital flows and price expectations play a crucial role in exchange rate fluctuations in the modern financial system [3]

固定资产投资下降有所加速，稳投资仍待进一步发力。 全年固定资产投资同比-3.8%，降幅较1-11月扩大1.2个百分点，其中建安投资累计同比-8.4%（1-11 月为-6.4%），反映建筑业偏弱的态势。12月固定投资季调环比下降1.13%，降幅较11月的0.37%扩大。虽然四季度新型政策性金融工具和地方政府专项债 等部分稳投资政策加力，但是推动投资止跌回稳仍待政策进一步发力。 中金研究 四季度主要指标量价仍然偏弱，实际GDP同比4.5%，GDP平减指数同比-0.7%。全年经济增长目标顺利完成，出口竞争力改善，外需总体上好于内需。 12月单月来看，社零增速放缓，固定资产投资偏弱运行。与2024年相比，最终消费和净出口对2025年GDP增长的贡献上升，资本形成的贡献下降较 多。总体而言，2025年经济继续呈现分化态势，供给强于需求、外需好于内需、制造业投资好于基建和房地产投资。2025年中央经济工作会议将扩内 需放在2026年重点任务之首，消费与投资均待政策发力，但从内生动能来看，消费对投资的引领意义重大。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 目录 宏观：分化中收 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 过去一两年，在传统需求乏力的困境下，全球增长若非AI的异军突起可能要面临更大压力，例如美国高达1万亿美元的科技软硬件设备投资贡献了2025年 GDP的三分之一（图表1），更不用说潜在要素生产率提升对未来增长的拉动（图表2）。 AI对股市的贡献同样显著，2022年底ChatGPT发布以来，美股Mag7[1]贡献了标普500指数84%回报中的45ppt，占到一半还多（图表3），2025年初 DeepSeek发布以来，港股七家科技龙头股[2]最高一度贡献了恒生指数37%回报中的14ppt，也占到四成（图表4）。不仅中美，2025年全球市场领跑的韩 国，日本、中国台湾等也都是AI产业上的关键链条（图表5）。 图表1：2025年前三季度实际GDP年化环比平均2.5%的增长中，美国科技软硬件贡献了0.8ppt 图表4：港股七家科技龙头股 占了最高一度恒生指数37%回报中的14ppt，占四成 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 图表2：自2023年以来，美国非农商业部门的劳动生产率已经抬升7.2% 资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 图表3：美股Mag7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "bottomless top" in the context of the A-share market, suggesting that the market is currently in a slow bull phase, which is characterized by gradually rising highs and lows, contrasting with the historical volatility of the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Significance of "Bottomless Top" Slow Bull - A "bottomless top" slow bull market supports a healthy capital market, which is crucial for enhancing China's international status, improving economic growth quality, and facilitating industrial upgrades [4]. - Strengthening the RMB as a "functional anchor" is essential for establishing a financial powerhouse, with a sustainable return rate from a slow bull market attracting global capital [4]. - Improving residents' income expectations through capital market returns can create a positive feedback loop for consumption, especially in the context of current asset scarcity [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Past A-share Market's Inability to Form a Slow Bull - The A-share market has historically struggled to establish a slow bull due to its high volatility and frequent bull-bear cycles, with only 51% of months showing gains compared to 66% in the S&P 500 [8][12]. - The market has experienced a high frequency of large monthly gains, indicating a tendency for rapid price increases that can deplete future expectations [8][12]. - Structural characteristics of the Chinese economy, such as reliance on capital formation and real estate, contribute to the "pulse-like" nature of earnings cycles, leading to frequent fluctuations [12][20]. Group 3: Current Conditions Favoring a Slow Bull in A-share Market - The current A-share market is better positioned for a slow bull than ever before, driven by the restructuring of the international monetary order and the resilience of the Chinese economy [30]. - Economic transformation and the emergence of new growth drivers, such as manufacturing and innovation, are expected to enhance the sustainability of profit growth [31][32]. - Recent reforms, including the new "National Nine Articles," aim to address imbalances in investment and financing, improving the overall market environment [39][40]. Group 4: Challenges to Sustaining a Slow Bull - Despite favorable conditions, challenges remain in the form of structural issues in the economy, regulatory frameworks, and the need for a balanced investment environment [61][62]. - The implementation of the new "National Nine Articles" and the need for improved financial hedging tools are critical for stabilizing the market and enhancing investor confidence [62][63]. - Attracting long-term capital from both domestic and international sources is essential for sustaining the slow bull, necessitating further reforms and openness in the market [63].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on three criteria: high capacity-to-market value ratio, ability to expand overseas, and the current bottoming of alumina prices, suggesting a focus on companies with high self-sufficiency in alumina amid potential supply disruptions [1][3][4] Supply Side - Global supply elasticity is decreasing and vulnerability is increasing due to factors such as peak domestic capacity in China, energy constraints in Europe and the US, and power supply issues in Indonesia, leading to a projected global supply CAGR of 1.4% from 2025 to 2030 [3][5] - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with a forecasted production of 4,430 million tons in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of only 2.4% [9] - The US and Europe face challenges in restoring electrolytic aluminum capacity due to high energy costs and tight power supplies, which will slow down recovery and limit new capacity [10][11] - Indonesia is expected to contribute significantly to future global electrolytic aluminum growth, but power supply constraints will hinder rapid capacity release [13][16] Demand Side - Global aluminum demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2030, driven by traditional demand recovery and emerging sectors like energy storage and data centers [18][22] - Traditional demand is expected to benefit from fiscal and monetary easing, with a projected decrease in the real estate sector's contribution to aluminum demand [22][23] - New industries, particularly energy storage and data centers, are becoming significant drivers of aluminum demand, with projected CAGRs of 26% and 13% respectively from 2025 to 2030 [26][30] Cost Factors - Alumina prices are expected to rebound due to supply-side constraints and policy changes in Guinea, despite current oversupply conditions [36][38] - The energy transition is anticipated to lower the costs of green electricity for electrolytic aluminum production, although short-term carbon taxes may raise energy costs [40][56] - Coal prices are expected to remain low, which will help suppress the costs of thermal power generation for electrolytic aluminum [41] Growth Opportunities - The Chinese aluminum industry is accelerating its overseas expansion due to domestic resource shortages and capacity constraints, with significant investments in regions like Guinea and Southeast Asia [42][45] - Guinea is highlighted as a key player in the alumina market, with plans to enhance local processing capabilities and attract investment [46] - Indonesia is emerging as a major hub for the aluminum industry, supported by government policies aimed at developing its domestic aluminum value chain [47] - Angola's rich hydropower resources and supportive policies are attracting investments in electrolytic aluminum production [48][49] - The Middle East is positioned as a cost-competitive region for aluminum production due to its abundant natural gas resources [50][51] Price Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to experience a revaluation as supply constraints and rising demand support higher aluminum prices, with potential for significant profit expansion [52][55] - The article suggests that the sector is transitioning from a purely cyclical nature to one that also includes dividend stability, making it an attractive investment opportunity [58]