中金研究 展望2026年，我们判断机械行业中科技创新板块仍具备显著投资机会；其次，出口端虽面临不确定性，但随着国际化进程推进，叠加美联储降息落地 等，我们认为外需存结构性机遇；内需层面，下游短期难见大范围产能扩张，但随着产能出清和通用企业向成长行业转型，股价有望反弹。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract AI基建：高景气资本开支和高频技术迭代带来机械发展新机遇。 1）海外算力资本开支超预期，行业扩产带动PCB设备和AIDC设备需求持续高增，全球 供给紧张，钻孔设备、柴油发动机、燃气轮机等有望迎来国产替代机会。2）AI算力升级催生设备及耗材新需求，下一代芯片Rubin在PCB、散热等架构上 创新，提高了PCB耗材和冷板、快接头等结构件的加工要求，并带动微通道液冷等新技术方案，设备及耗材价值量有望进一步提升。 人形机器人：2026年 产业 进度加速，关注头部扩产。 国产企业如宇树、智元等公司有望陆续上市，国产人形机器人性能快速迭代，应用场景合作生态加 速打开。重视软硬件技术发展，关注汽车、消费电子零部件跨界切入。 专用设备：关注景气拐点和技术变革的子赛道。 供给出清+技术创新趋势，看好：1）存在技术变革或技 ...

Core Viewpoint - The media sector is expected to experience an overall upward trend in 2025, driven by favorable policies, new product cycles, and the expansion of Chinese cultural content overseas, alongside the growing demand for IP economy and advancements in AI technology [2][3] Group 1: Policy and Content Cycle - The gaming industry is benefiting from the normalization of license issuance, leading to a significant recovery in supply, while the video series industry is entering a critical window for content innovation and mechanism optimization due to the gradual implementation of new broadcasting regulations [3][9] - The AI development is entering a new phase, with expectations that by 2026, AI-native applications will expand further, transitioning from auxiliary tools to creative subjects, enhancing the production capacity of web literature and IP adaptation into films [3][12] - The trend of cultural content going overseas is maturing, with a shift from broad output to a focus on high-quality cultural core and localized adaptation, particularly in gaming, web literature, and short dramas [3][20] Group 2: IP Economy and Industry Trends - The IP economy is expected to flourish in 2026, with multiple commercialization paths for domestic IP content, consumer products, and services, leading to scaled growth and systematic value reassessment as the industry matures [3][19] - Leading companies in the media sector are positioned to benefit first from industry trends due to their advantages in business scale, technological reserves, and capital operations, particularly in digital media and gaming [4][19] - The film industry is projected to see box office revenues of 520 billion yuan in 2026 under neutral conditions, with expectations of recovery driven by quality content [35] Group 3: Social Community and AI Integration - Social community platforms are increasingly integrating AI to enhance efficiency and reduce costs across content interaction processes, with a focus on user engagement and monetization [22][25] - The advertising sector is witnessing rapid AI penetration, optimizing content production processes and reducing costs, with a shift towards automated and personalized advertising strategies [30][31] Group 4: Music and Publishing Industry Insights - The music industry is expected to maintain a stable structure, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music continuing to dominate, while exploring deeper value extraction from the industry chain [17][19] - The publishing industry is adapting to regulatory changes while focusing on the resilience of educational materials and the potential for IP-driven sales growth, with leading companies maintaining strong dividend yields [39][41]

致力于打造开放共享的金融业知识平台， 中金点睛数字化投研平台诚邀您深度体验 ！ 中金点睛是集成中金研究分析师投研智慧的一站式数字化投研服务平台，依托中金研究 30 多个专业团队、全球市场视野、超 1800 支个股覆盖的 深度积淀，提供研究报告、会议活动、基本面数据库、研究框架等分析师研究成果，并结合大模型技术，致力于为客户提供高效、专业、准确的研 究服务。 点击图片，即刻登录体验 r store the true to the month to the sent to www.research.cicc.com），手机号登录即享 ■ 研究观点 日度更新投研焦点,精选文章及时推送 中金晨报 2 公开直播 资深分析师及时解读市场热点 公开路海 B 精品视频 用年下文 8 0 请输入您的问题 真人出镜,图文并茂,直观展示 CICC REITs TALK 2,8 认证即享 升级权益 邮箱认证,解锁三大升级功能 ■ 研究报告 3W+ 完整版研报 宏观经济 行业研究 大宗商品 � 数据与研究框架 160+ 行业研究框架 行业数据 40+ 精品数据库 精品数据看板 8 中金点晴大模型 - (1) 0 o AI搜索 1 要点 ...

中金研究旗下一站式数字化投研平台 自 2023 年 ChatGPT 掀起浪潮，近三年大模型迭代让 AI Agent 的技术底座与产品路径逐渐成熟，2025 年更 被冠上 "AI Agent 元年" 的称号。但这个被寄予 "智能生产力" 厚望的新物种，能否打破 AI 大模型 "技术领 先却难成商业闭环" 的困境？又将如何重塑 AI 应用生态？ 本期要点荟萃 以下文章来源于中金点睛 数字化投研平台 ，作者中金研究 中金点睛 数字化投研平台 . 发展得如何了？ AI Agent的商业 1 2 AI Agent相关技术与产品 化实践有何进展？ 分享人 | 王之昊 （中金公司研究部 软件、电信和教育 行业分析师） 分享人 | 曹萌 （中金公司研究部 软件、电信和教育 行业分析师） 01 AI Agent相关技术与产品发展得如何了？ 从技术与产品端看，AI Agent 的发展路径渐明，应用落地也在积极推进。技术上，其核心架构 " 底层大模 型 + 各类工具 + 配套 Agent Infra " 已初步成型，其中基础大模型是能力上限的关键 —— 既要理解任务需 求、拆解规划，又要支撑执行中的推理。 Agent当前的应用技术 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 下一阶段的行业选择思路 >>点击图片查看全文<< 往前看应该如何配置，是当下市场普遍关心的问题：是咬定科技不放松，还是平衡更多到分红，又或是可以提前布局已经无人问津很久 的内需消费？我们认为，信用周期，不仅可以指引整体的宏观走向，也是一个行之有效的比较框架，可以帮助我们选择配置方向。综合 而言，投资者仍可延续"哑铃型"组合（红利+科技互联网）作为配置底仓，并结合拥挤度动态调整组合权重，可以起到较好的对冲和平 衡效果。在此基础上，外需拉动的顺周期（铜铝等有色、化工、工程机械、甚至地产链）和创新药倒可以作为组合弹性选择，尤其是在 一季度。相反，内需消费板块依然会受基本面拖累。 2025.12.01 | 刘刚 张典 02 大类资产 Strategy 布局年末政策窗口期 >>点击图片查看全文<< 海外，随着美联储会议时点接近，我们预期市场关注点可能重回美联储降息，在FOMC会议召开之前，全球股债商金等资产表现可能有 所改善。进入2026年，随着美国通胀进一步上升，美联储可能放慢降息节奏，我们预期12月FOMC会议之后，美元流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the critical role of commercial rockets in achieving low-cost and large-scale access to space, highlighting the development status, technological pathways, and cost-reduction strategies in the commercial rocket sector [5][10]. Group 1: Global and Domestic Development of Commercial Rockets - The global demand for rocket launches is driven by the booming commercial space industry, with the number of launches expected to grow from 112 in 2020 to 263 in 2024, making commercial rockets the primary launch vehicles [5][7]. - Since 2014, domestic commercial rocket companies have rapidly developed, with several models achieving consecutive successful launches. Reusable rockets like Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3 are expected to have their maiden flights in 2025-2026, significantly enhancing domestic launch capacity [5][16]. Group 2: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Launch costs account for approximately 30%-40% of the total cost of satellite constellation construction. The commercial model has significantly reduced costs, with SpaceX's Falcon 9 achieving a unit launch cost of $3,000 per kilogram [5][20]. - The turnaround time for commercial rockets has been reduced to under 100 days, compared to the traditional 20-month cycle, making them more suitable for rapid and frequent launches [5][20]. Group 3: Reusability and Technological Advancements - Reusability is key to reducing costs, with the structure and propulsion system accounting for 60%-80% of rocket costs. Falcon 9's launch cost could drop to $1,270 per kilogram with ten reuses [6][27]. - New technologies, such as variable thrust liquid engines and the use of stainless steel instead of aluminum alloys, are being adopted to further lower manufacturing costs [6][35]. Group 4: Policy Support and Market Growth - The U.S. has established a robust legal framework for commercial space, fostering the growth of commercial rockets since 1984. Similarly, China's policies since 2014 have encouraged private investment in commercial space ventures [10][15]. - The commercial launch service market is projected to reach $9.3 billion in 2024, with the U.S. market alone expected to grow to $6.1 billion, more than doubling since 2021 [15][20]. Group 5: Future Prospects and Industry Dynamics - The domestic commercial rocket sector is expected to accelerate growth, with major models entering regular launch phases and reusable rockets set for intensive launches in 2025-2026 [16][20]. - The increasing number of satellite launches, driven by large-scale constellation projects, positions commercial rockets as the mainstay for low Earth orbit (LEO) launches, with Falcon 9 capable of providing over 2,000 tons of LEO capacity in 2024 [25][26].

中金研究 今年一季度德国超万亿欧元的财政转型引起市场关注。年初至今，5000亿欧元特别基金的投资计划，2025年及2026年的联邦财政预算相继公布，本文 旨在追踪德国财政的最新进展情况。 2025年联邦预算的细节： 2025年联邦预算 已于9月通过（之前按临时预算运行），总体来看，2025年预算内支出将大幅增长，并带动预算内赤字较去年跳 升（从2024年的0.6%上升至1.8%）。同时新专项基金推动预算外支出增长，总联邦支出将达到5640亿欧元（同比+17%），总国防支出将达到940亿欧元 （同比+27%），总投资支出达到近1160亿欧元（同比+55%）。 然而截至10月，投资和国防支出进展不及预期： 2025年1-10月，预算内层面看，联邦政府预算内赤字达到全年目标的81%，但预算外支出的进展偏慢。其 中，市场关注的投资和国防层面进度慢于政府消费端支出。预算内投资支出的进度为70%，预算外的专项基金（SV IK）从10月起正式完成法律程序，10 月完成借款进度34%。国防支出方面，总国防支出目前也只到全年目标的61%。但边际变化上，德国财政部最新报告显示10月份预算内支出有所加快，赤 字完成度上升20个百分 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 多因素推动聚变能源商业化进程。 1）对稳定、清洁、高能量密度能源的迫切需求，推动可控核聚变成为能源转型的核心方向。2）关键技术节点的连续 突破（NIF装置净能量增益的突破，高温超导磁体的成熟应用等），推动了可控核聚变的工程化验证进展。3）规模化与多元化的资本投入（截至2024 年，全球私营聚变企业数量已增至45家）正加速可控核聚变从实验室研究走向商业应用。4）各国政府通过立法保障、资金支持等构建有利的政策环境， 为聚变能源发展铺平道路。 产业链协同推进，多技术路径并行。 上游超导材料、特殊材料及关键设备降本提效，头部企业技术突破与产业协同，为商业化奠定坚实基础。技术路径 来看可控核聚变百花齐放，磁约束为当前主导，其中托卡马克是主流，ITER预计 2030-2035年首供，中国CFETR、BEST装置工程化优势显著；惯性约束 以NIF为突破，但效率待提升；Z箍缩、FRC等创新路线亦获进展。过去四年，全球聚变行业的投资规模呈现高速增长的态势，总投资额从2021年的19亿 美元攀升至2025年的约97.66亿美元，在四年内增长超过五倍。 中金研究 十五五规划将可控核聚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The communication equipment sector has seen a significant increase of 79.0% as of November 21, 2025, outperforming the broader market, driven by domestic and overseas computing chains influenced by various factors including the release of DeepSeek R1 and North American AI expectations [2][4][7]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes innovation in the domestic AI chain and cutting-edge technology sectors [4][19]. - The overseas AI hardware market is expected to maintain high demand, particularly in AI ASIC and optical module sectors [4][27]. - The domestic AI industry is anticipated to witness more innovative applications, especially in automotive electronics benefiting from the deepening of intelligent driving standards [4][49]. Group 2: Market Performance - The SW communication index rose by 51.7% year-to-date, with the communication equipment sector outperforming the market significantly [7]. - In 2025, the domestic computing chain and overseas computing chain experienced alternating trends influenced by various market dynamics [8][27]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Hardware - The global server market is projected to grow significantly, with AI servers becoming a core growth driver, expected to see a 24% increase in shipments in 2025 [31][33]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules is forecasted to double, with the 400G+ optical module market expected to reach $37.8 billion by 2026 [34][39]. - The AI ASIC market is anticipated to see substantial growth, with shipments expected to double in 2026 [30][28]. Group 4: Policy and Strategic Developments - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of building a modern infrastructure system, including a national integrated computing network [20][25]. - The domestic AI industry is supported by clear policy directions, aiming for a significant increase in the adoption of new intelligent terminals and AI applications by 2027 [47][48]. Group 5: Emerging Technologies - The satellite internet and low-altitude economy are entering a cluster development window, with significant advancements in satellite networking and applications [23][24]. - The integration of AI with IoT is driving rapid development in edge intelligence, with the AIoT solutions market expected to grow significantly [47][48].

文/中金大类资产：李昭，杨晓卿 点击小程序查看报告原文 美联储12月可能再次降息，明年初或放慢降息节奏。 12月9日-10日将召开美联储FOMC会议，由于近期美国通胀与增长数据都偏低，我们预测美联储再次降息25bp。目前市场计入美联储12月降息概率为88% [1]，2026年降息两次（图表1）。 图表1：目前市场计入美联储12月降息概率为88% | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | MEETING DATE 150-175 175-200 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 350-375 375-400 400-425 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/10 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 87.6% ...