Group 1: Core Views - The article discusses the impact of Trump's policies on the U.S. economy, highlighting that the nominal economic recovery has been hindered since 2025 due to various negative shocks [2][5] - It predicts that as the 2026 midterm elections approach, Trump may soften foreign policy and shift focus to domestic issues, leading to a significant push for fiscal and monetary easing [2][5] - The anticipated easing environment is expected to alleviate three major constraints on the U.S. economy: weakened confidence, sluggish small business expansion, and weak housing demand [2][5] Group 2: Overseas Market Insights - The article notes that the overseas market is experiencing accelerated bubbles, driven by the dual easing of fiscal and monetary policies [5][25] - It emphasizes that the combination of fiscal dominance and monetary support is likely to lead to a significant increase in asset valuations, particularly benefiting growth stocks and emerging markets [25][36] Group 3: Domestic Economic Challenges - The article identifies three main challenges facing the U.S. economy in 2025: negative policy impacts on market confidence, slow small business expansion affecting demand, and a weak real estate market [5][9] - It highlights that small businesses, which employ 43% of the private sector workforce, are particularly sensitive to economic cycles, and their recovery is crucial for overall economic improvement [9][12] - The real estate market is described as being in a low state since 2022, with high mortgage rates and stringent lending standards suppressing demand [16][19] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Outlook - The article predicts a significant increase in the U.S. budget deficit, potentially reaching 6.4% in FY2026, driven by the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan [25][27] - It discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, suggesting that it will remain accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts due to subdued inflation pressures [29][32] - The expected increase in liquidity is anticipated to stabilize financial markets and support investment in AI and industrial sectors [32][36] Group 5: Currency and Market Dynamics - The article notes that the recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan is influenced by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and year-end settlement pressures [42][46] - It argues that a weaker dollar could lead to a global economic recovery, benefiting emerging markets and supporting A/H shares in China [49][56] - The relationship between currency movements and risk assets is emphasized, with the yuan's strength expected to positively impact A/H stock performance [56][60] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The article highlights that sectors related to technology and international expansion are expected to outperform traditional sectors, driven by improved fundamentals and returns [67][71] - It suggests that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and reducing competition will likely boost consumer-related sectors [71][72] - The potential for stable long-term capital inflows into the A-share market is noted, particularly from insurance funds and other long-term investors [60][63]

Core Viewpoint - The North American aluminum industry is facing opportunities from increased U.S. trade barriers on aluminum imports and challenges from data centers competing for limited power resources. The supply-demand gap for primary aluminum in North America is expected to widen over the next five years, with local U.S. aluminum maintaining a high premium [2]. Supply Overview - The supply of primary aluminum in North America is limited due to power constraints and uncertainties in trade policies. Since 2011, new primary aluminum capacity has stagnated, and cost pressures from aging power and equipment have led to many U.S. projects being idled or shut down. The U.S. local Mt Holly project has announced a restart of idle capacity, while new projects by Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum depend heavily on policy support. Canada currently has no expansion projects with net capacity increases planned. It is expected that North American primary aluminum production will slightly increase from 3.99 million tons in 2024 to 4.16 million tons by 2030, mainly from the restart of idle capacity [5][11][18]. Demand Overview - North American aluminum demand is expected to maintain rapid growth, with the regional supply-demand gap likely to widen further. The transportation sector is anticipated to see a recovery in automotive manufacturing capacity utilization under U.S. tariff protection, while strong orders in aerospace will support aircraft manufacturing demand. Residential construction aluminum demand may stabilize and rebound after new housing starts bottom out. The high investment in the power sector may continue to drive related aluminum demand [5][11][43]. Key Companies - The North American aluminum industry is dominated by three major companies: Alcoa, Century Aluminum, and Rio Tinto. Rio Tinto maintains a relatively stronger profitability due to its low-cost hydroelectric power and integrated bauxite resources. Century Aluminum benefits more from U.S. tariff protections due to its high domestic production ratio. Alcoa, with a higher proportion of alumina revenue, can better withstand cost pressures related to alumina prices, while its higher cash cost per ton of aluminum provides greater profit elasticity [6][45]. Trade and Policy Impact - U.S. aluminum net imports reached a historical high in 2017 but have since declined due to tariff policies. The U.S. aluminum dependency ratio rose from 3% in 2011 to 59% in 2017, then fell to 38% in 2020 due to tariff protections. However, the dependency ratio is expected to rise again to around 50% from 2021 to 2024. The recent increase in tariffs to 25% and 50% will significantly elevate trade barriers [25][26][30]. Price Dynamics - The Midwest premium for aluminum in the U.S. has been expanding due to tariff impacts. The premium has risen from below $0.10 per pound before 2012 to around $0.20 per pound after the introduction of tariffs in 2018, and further to $0.80-$0.90 per pound with the recent tariff increases, effectively covering additional costs imposed by tariffs [35][36]. Future Outlook - The supply of primary aluminum in North America is expected to remain limited due to power resource constraints and uncertainties in trade policies. The demand for aluminum is projected to grow rapidly, particularly in the transportation and packaging sectors. The supply-demand gap is likely to widen from 2025 to 2030, with the Midwest premium expected to remain at a high level sufficient to cover tariff costs [38][43].

以下文章来源于中金研究院 ，作者创新经济组 中金研究院 . 中金研究院 (CICC Global Institute，缩写 CGI)作为中金公司一级部门，定位为新时代、新形势下的新型 智库，服务于中国公共政策研究与决策，参与国际政策讨论和交流，并为中国金融市场尤其是资本市场 发展建言献策。 第七期嘉宾：王启斌 北京灵初智能科技有限公司创始人、CEO 欢迎来到周子彭机器人播客。在这里，我将与中国优秀的创业者和投资者进行深入对话，共同探索机 器人发展的最前沿。 本期内容 公众号所载资料，有可能会因缺乏对完整报告的了解或缺乏相关的解读而对资料中的信息、观点、判断等内容产生理解上的歧义。订阅者如使用本资料，须寻求专业顾问的指导及解读。 订阅本公众号不构成任何合同或承诺的基础，中金公司不因任何单纯订阅本公众号的行为而将订阅人视为中金公司的客户。 本公众号所载信息、意见不构成对买卖任何证券或其他金融工具的出价或征价或提供任何投资决策建议的服务。该等信息、意见在任何时候均不构成对任何人的具有针对性的、指导具体投资的操作意 见，订阅者应当对本公众号中的信息和意见进行评估，根据自身情况自主做出决策并自行承担风险。 中金公司对本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic food and beverage industry in China has entered a mature phase with slowing growth, but recent policy benefits, supply chain advantages, and product enhancements have laid the groundwork for domestic companies to expand overseas [2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall growth rate of the domestic food and beverage industry is projected to be only 2.0% from 2020 to 2024, with traditional categories like mid-range beer and basic condiments entering a phase of stock competition [3]. - Some niche segments, such as energy drinks and compound seasonings, continue to show high growth, but the industry as a whole faces a ceiling [3]. - The RCEP agreement and cross-border trade facilitation actions have reduced tariffs and logistics costs, enhancing the conditions for Chinese companies to go global [3]. Group 2: Global Market Opportunities - The CAGR for the food and beverage industry in Southeast Asia, the U.S., and Western Europe from 2020 to 2024 is projected to be 4.6%, 5.9%, and 4.7% respectively, significantly higher than China's 2.0% [3][5]. - Southeast Asia has a population of approximately 600 million, with a young demographic and dietary habits similar to China, making it an attractive market for entry [3][7]. - The U.S. market, with a size of $919.8 billion, offers substantial opportunities due to its large scale and high consumer purchasing power, particularly among the growing Asian population [3][5]. - The EU has a high per capita GDP of $41,423, indicating strong consumer purchasing power and a clear trend towards premium products, providing space for differentiated offerings [3][5]. Group 3: Successful Case Studies - Kikkoman successfully entered the U.S. market in the 1960s by focusing on brand cultivation and local production, demonstrating the importance of understanding market inflection points and building a global distribution system [4]. - Domestic company Mixue has rapidly expanded overseas by leveraging cost-effectiveness, intellectual property, and franchising [4]. - Aisle has successfully penetrated the Indonesian market by enhancing brand recognition through localized innovation, achieving a market share among the top three [4]. Group 4: Regional Market Characteristics - Southeast Asia's food and beverage market is characterized by a young population and rapid GDP growth, making it a prime location for localized and scalable market entry [11]. - The U.S. market is marked by a growing Asian demographic with high income levels, creating a core consumer group for Asian food and beverages [12]. - The European market emphasizes high per capita income and a strong demand for health-oriented products, aligning well with Chinese offerings in tea, functional drinks, and plant-based products [12]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The seasoning market in Southeast Asia is growing steadily, with sauces and seasonings accounting for the highest market share [15]. - The U.S. seasoning market is projected to reach $37.28 billion in retail sales by 2024, with a CAGR of 6.8% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a diverse consumer preference [20][22]. - The snack market in Southeast Asia is experiencing rapid growth, with the region's snack market retail sales projected to reach $19.15 billion by 2024 [23][25]. Group 6: Challenges and Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in Southeast Asia is fragmented, with both local leaders and international giants present, necessitating a focus on differentiated product offerings [28]. - In the U.S. and Western Europe, the snack market is dominated by major international players, making it essential for Chinese companies to leverage unique flavors and innovative products to gain market entry [34].

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for wind power demand in both domestic and overseas markets is optimistic for 2026, driven by rising prices for onshore wind turbines, accelerated industry exports, and the potential flexibility of offshore wind resources in China, which is expected to lead to a comprehensive improvement in industry chain profitability [4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Wind Power Demand - Domestic wind power installations are expected to reach 130-140 GW in 2026, continuing growth from a high base of 120-130 GW in 2025, primarily driven by onshore wind power [4][8]. - Offshore wind power is projected to add 10-12 GW in 2026, a significant increase from 7-9 GW in 2025, although the industry still needs to enhance its overall market conditions [4][10]. - The domestic wind power bidding volume for 2025 is expected to exceed 130-140 GW, indicating strong resilience despite a high base from the previous year [5][8]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Profitability - Three major trends are anticipated to drive a comprehensive improvement in profitability across the Chinese wind power industry in 2026: 1. Onshore wind turbine gross margins are expected to increase by 2-3 percentage points in 2026 compared to 2025, with further improvements anticipated in 2027 [4][19]. 2. Accelerated overseas exports of Chinese wind turbines, with significant growth in the European offshore wind market [4][22]. 3. The domestic offshore wind sector is poised for rapid growth, with the potential to achieve annual new installations of over 15 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][34]. Group 3: Export Growth and Market Expansion - Chinese wind turbine exports are accelerating, with new orders expected to exceed 20 GW in 2024, significantly higher than historical levels [4][22]. - The European market is identified as a key area for growth, with Chinese companies likely to achieve substantial breakthroughs in the coming years [4][26]. - The offshore wind sector in Europe is currently experiencing high construction activity, although challenges such as project delays and financing issues need to be addressed [4][27]. Group 4: Offshore Wind Potential - The domestic offshore wind sector has substantial resource reserves and is supported by favorable policies, indicating potential for rapid growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][36]. - By the end of 2025, approximately 60 GW of unbuilt offshore wind projects have been allocated to owners, providing a solid foundation for future development [4][36]. - The construction intensity of offshore wind projects is expected to gradually increase, with a significant number of projects in the pipeline [4][38].

Core Viewpoint - The growth of the Chinese securities industry is benefiting from economic development and capital market reforms, with leading Chinese brokers expected to accelerate their progress towards becoming world-class investment banks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing their business scale, professional capabilities, and profitability [2][7]. Industry Future Trends - The industry is poised to leverage diverse and complex financial needs from enterprises, institutions, and residents, leading to opportunities and higher service demands. Key strategies include creating "industrial investment banks" and "asset investment banks" to support economic transformation, enhancing global sales and multi-asset trading capabilities, and addressing wealth management needs through a "wealth investment bank" model [6][14][15]. Investment Value Understanding - The securities sector has historically been underweighted by investors due to competition homogenization and earnings volatility. However, improvements in industry structure, stability, and profitability are expected to enhance long-term investment value. Factors include regulatory emphasis on supporting strong firms, balanced business structures among leading brokers, and a focus on high-quality development [3][39][42]. 2026 Investment Opportunities - The industry is expected to maintain a relatively high level of prosperity, with an overall profit growth forecast of 12%. Key investment lines include the performance of investment banks and private equity leaders, brokers with strong institutional sales and trading services, and firms with significant international business growth [4][58][59].

近期有一种观点认为人民币汇率被明显低估，其主要论据是中国贸易顺差趋势上升或者中国同类商品价格明显低于美国（比如麦当劳的Big Mac）。这类 分析的共同点是从商品定价视角出发判断汇率是否合理，背后是新古典主义思维。在全球外汇交易规模远远超过贸易体量、资本流动波动大的时代，仍然 从商品价格视角来评估汇率无疑与现实差距较大。与此对应，（后）凯恩斯主义从资产价格的视角来分析汇率，不否认实体经济和经常项目的重要性，但 认为在现代金融体系下，资本流动和预期变化构成汇率波动的核心机制，这个思维与现实更为吻合。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 从（后）凯恩斯主义视角来看，我们认为金融周期是导致经常项目与汇率走势出现背离的重要因素，中美数据均显示这个现象。金融周期是指房价与信贷 互相加强而形成的长周期，其上行会压低经常项目但推升本币汇率，而金融周期下行则推升经常项目并抑制本币汇率。比如，过去几年中国处于金融周期 下行阶段，社会资源配置往高效率领域（比如高端制造业）倾斜，技术进步提速，支撑出口。此外，楼市调整导致以房地产为代表的非贸易品价格下降， 降低贸易品的中间投入成本，也促进了出口。同时，金融周期下行期，市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate, surpassing the 7.0 mark, is attributed to the depreciation of the USD and seasonal factors, with the pace of appreciation exceeding expectations [2][3][4]. Group 1: USD Depreciation and Market Conditions - The USD index has weakened continuously since late November, with a decline of over 2% as of December 25, driven by market expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3][4]. - Weak performance in the US labor market and inflation data has contributed to expectations of a potential easing by the Federal Reserve, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November and average hourly earnings dropping to a low of 3.5% year-on-year [4][9]. Group 2: Seasonal Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - Historically, the RMB tends to appreciate significantly at the end of the year, driven by factors such as increased settlement needs from exporters and a general weakening of the USD [13][15]. - In December, the RMB appreciated by approximately 1%, with an annualized rate exceeding 10%, although such rapid appreciation may not be sustainable [20][21]. Group 3: Internal and External Factors Supporting RMB Strength - The RMB's strength is supported by low inflation, strong exports, and high trade surpluses, with the trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in November [22][23]. - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting domestic demand rather than relying solely on external demand, which is expected to support the RMB's appreciation in the medium to long term [22][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB is expected to maintain a moderate appreciation trend, with potential fluctuations influenced by external factors such as the USD's seasonal rebound and domestic market conditions post-Chinese New Year [20][21]. - The anticipated depreciation of the USD by around 5% next year could lead to a corresponding RMB appreciation of approximately 1.7% based on historical relationships [24].

Core Viewpoint - China's merchandise trade surplus continues to rise, while the service trade remains in deficit, with the current account to GDP ratio below 3.5% as of September this year, indicating that external imbalances are not very significant [2] Trade Surplus and Economic Structure - The trade surplus is driven by a downward financial cycle that reallocates resources towards high-efficiency high-end manufacturing, accelerated technological advancements, and a decline in non-trade goods prices due to real estate adjustments, which lowers the intermediate input costs for trade goods and boosts exports [2] - Private sector deleveraging has suppressed demand, leading to a slowdown in imports, while manufacturing upgrades have increased domestic production capabilities, further reducing imports [2] Trade Data Overview - For the period of January to November 2025, China's customs-based merchandise trade surplus reached a record high of $1,075.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21% [3] - Exports during this period amounted to $3,414.7 billion, an increase of $174.6 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate of 5.4%, while imports decreased to $2,338.8 billion, a decline of $13 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate of -0.6% [3] - The trade surplus as a percentage of GDP for the rolling 12 months ending September 2025 was 6.0%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with exports contributing 0.6 percentage points and imports contributing 0.7 percentage points to this increase [3] Regional Trade Surplus - The main regions contributing to China's merchandise trade surplus from January to November 2025 include Hong Kong ($273.2 billion), the EU ($266.9 billion), the US ($257.0 billion), and ASEAN ($246.1 billion) [4] - Conversely, trade deficits were recorded with Taiwan (-$133.4 billion), Australia (-$47.7 billion), South Korea (-$37.3 billion), Russia (-$19.5 billion), and Japan (-$4.3 billion) [4] Product-Specific Trade Surplus - The primary products contributing to China's merchandise trade surplus from January to November 2025 include electrical equipment (HS85) at $352.7 billion, machinery (HS84) at $320.7 billion, vehicles and parts (HS87) at $182.9 billion, furniture (HS94) at $104.4 billion, and uncategorized goods (HS98) at $97.4 billion [5] - In contrast, significant trade deficits were observed in mineral fuels (HS27) at -$354.4 billion, minerals (HS26) at -$239.5 billion, jewelry (HS71) at -$64.0 billion, copper and its products (HS74) at -$50.5 billion, and nuts (HS12) at -$49.4 billion [5] Economic Indicators and Trends - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with the China Real Estate Prosperity Index rising to 95.4, driven by improvements in sales and financing indices [6] - The demand for new and second-hand homes has seen a narrowing decline compared to 2019, indicating a potential stabilization in the housing market [6][7] - The wholesale price index for essential products has shown a slight decrease, while the retail sales of major appliances and passenger vehicles have experienced significant year-on-year declines [8]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of dividend style in 2025 is expected to be relatively flat, presenting phase-specific and structural opportunities. The growth style has led the market, with the ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 rising by 51.5% and 36.1% respectively since the beginning of the year, while the dividend style has seen a slight decline of 1.2% [2] Group 1: Market Conditions and Trends - The A-share market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style in 2026, with a higher certainty for dividend style but still leaning towards structural and phase-specific opportunities. The demand for fund allocation supports the performance of dividend sectors [3] - The current low interest rate environment in China continues, with a slowdown in the decline of the ten-year government bond yield since July, leading to a stable bond market outlook. This backdrop is expected to increase the motivation for long-term funds, such as insurance and bank wealth management, to allocate to equities, highlighting the appeal of dividend assets [3] - The policy environment has been increasingly supportive of dividend distribution, with the new "National Nine Articles" reinforcing dividend regulations and encouraging companies to enhance their dividend capabilities. By 2024, the overall dividend payout ratio in A-shares is expected to rise to 45% [4] Group 2: Dividend Style Investment Strategy - The support factors for the dividend style have been largely reflected, while the stability of the underlying companies will be the key focus for future stock selection. Companies are encouraged to enhance their dividend capabilities to attract investors [6] - An optimized high-dividend stock selection strategy has been constructed, focusing on quality free cash flow, stable high dividends, and moderate dividend yields. This strategy aims to outperform traditional high-dividend indices [6] - Specific stock selection criteria include: market capitalization over 20 billion, P/E ratio under 25, dividend payout ratios above 45% for non-financial companies, and a free cash flow to equity ratio above 8% [7]