点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席后，市场高度关注这是否会带来货币政策显著转向。沃什在2011年因不满当时的多轮量化宽松操作从 美联储理事会辞职，此后长期批评美联储的政策与实践。沃什在2025年5月在胡佛研究所有一个深度访谈[2]，系统阐述了其政策理念，包括：1）通胀是 政策选择，央行可以通过控制货币供应来控制通胀，符合通胀是货币现象的货币主义观；2）沃什认为美联储自2008年金融危机后资产负债表过度膨胀， 扭曲了市场，主张通过缩减资产负债表（缩表）控制通胀，为降低利率创造空间；3）收缩美联储职能：沃什批评美联储角色涉足气候、包容性等非核心 议题，主张回归物价稳定和金融稳定核心法定职责；4）改革央行与政府关系：呼吁重新明确央行与财政部的职权划分，部分资产负债表的控制权可移交 给财政部。 T正文ext 一、内生货币 vs 外生货币 我们可以从货币的角色谈起，在访谈中沃什对美联储的一个批评是其只重视利率、不重视货币数量的作用。实际上，美联储的观点只是反映了金融自由化 时代主流经济学的理念。如何理解这个问题？降息的政策操作标的是利率，缩表的操作标的是货币数 ...

中金研究 日本众议院选举将于2月8日(周日)举行，当晚可以公布计票结果。此次选举是选择执政党及首相的关键政治选举。高市首相选择在支持率相对较高的时 机解散众议院并重新选举，主要目的在于争取更多议席以巩固执政基础。本次选举的核心焦点在于，执政联盟最终能获得多少议席，直接决定选举结 果并影响未来政权稳定性。 目前，日本主流媒体的舆论调查显示自民党获得席位或较选举前大幅增加，存在单独过半数的可能性。在此情景下，我们 认为各类日本资产的价格波动方向或发生日股大幅上升、日债利率上行、日元贬值的走势。 但是由于政治事件不确定性较大，我们提醒投资者依旧需 留意不确定性。 高市早苗为何解散众议院： 目前日本的众议院任期始于2024年10月，任期为4年，但是途中可以随时被首相解散。本届众议院在其整个任期的1/3时间还不 到的时期就被首相解散，在历史上属于罕见。高市早苗在早期就解散众议院的主要原因有两点： ①目前众议院中自民党的席位与其党魁高市的内阁支持 率并不匹配： 目前的众议院的465个总席位中自民党仅有198席(图表1)，为石破政权时期的产物(与此相对，岸田时期的2021年选举后自民党占261席、安 倍时期的2017年选举 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the advancements in large model technology, highlighting improvements in reasoning, programming, agentic capabilities, and multimodal abilities, while also noting existing shortcomings in general reliability and memory capabilities [1][4]. Model Architecture and Optimization - The Transformer architecture continues to dominate, with a consensus on the efficiency of the Mixture of Experts (MoE) model, which activates only a subset of parameters, significantly reducing computational costs [17][18]. - The industry is exploring various attention mechanisms to balance precision and efficiency, including Full-Attention, Linear-Attention, and Hybrid-Attention [20]. Model Capabilities - Significant progress has been made in reasoning, programming, agentic tasks, and multimodal applications, with models achieving real productivity levels in various domains [3][4]. - The introduction of reinforcement learning is crucial for unlocking advanced model capabilities, allowing for more logical reasoning aligned with human preferences [2][23]. Competitive Landscape - Major players like OpenAI, Gemini, and Anthropic are intensifying their competition, with OpenAI focusing on enhancing reasoning and multimodal integration, while Gemini has made significant strides in model capabilities and is leveraging high-quality data for improvements [11][42][43]. - Domestic models are catching up, maintaining a static gap of about six months behind their international counterparts, with companies like Alibaba and ByteDance producing competitive models [12][14]. Future Directions - The focus for 2026 includes further advancements in reinforcement learning, continuous learning, and world models, with expectations for models to tackle more complex tasks and achieve long-term goals like AGI [27][40]. - Continuous learning and model memory are seen as essential for achieving lifelong learning capabilities, with new algorithms like MIRAS and HOPE being pivotal in this evolution [28][32].

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman raises concerns about the potential for a reduction in the balance sheet, but the current liquidity dynamics and fiscal trends suggest that the expansion of the balance sheet is likely to continue regardless of leadership changes [1][2]. Group 1: Liquidity and Fiscal Dynamics - The U.S. financial system's stability heavily relies on the Federal Reserve's provision of "ample liquidity," especially in light of increasing fiscal financing needs and the upcoming midterm elections, which make fiscal tightening undesirable for the Trump administration [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been on a stair-step upward trend since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by a monetary policy framework that requires a significant amount of short-term liquidity to support financial activities [3][4]. - The current liquidity levels are still below the "ample" threshold, which is estimated to be around 10%-11% of GDP, leading to increased market risks when liquidity approaches this critical level [3][4]. Group 2: Implications of Monetary Policy - The intertwining of fiscal policy and monetary policy creates inherent contradictions, particularly as the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance is crucial for the repo market, which could lead to systemic risks if not properly managed [4][5]. - The likelihood of fiscal tightening is low, especially with the pressures of income inequality and geopolitical competition, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will continue to expand its balance sheet to support the economy [4][5]. - The expectation of continued fiscal and monetary easing is likely to support global risk assets, particularly benefiting emerging markets and commodities like gold and copper [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The anticipated collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies under Warsh's leadership may lead to a more aggressive approach in supporting the manufacturing sector and alleviating financing burdens for households and small businesses [5][6]. - The ongoing expansion of the balance sheet could stimulate speculative behavior among financial institutions, increasing market volatility and posing challenges for future monetary policy [5][6].

中金研究 二手房收储举措对症 下 药，关注上海、北京库存消化进度。 如我们此前在 《房地产2026年展望：徐图进取，静候机遇》 和 《房地产政策端和供给侧初 现积极变化》 中指出的，当前房地产周期的关键点在库存问题，社会库存演变趋势、存量住房收储政策、新增土地供给方案是决定库存去化速度的关 键。上海二手房挂牌量自2025年3季度已开始下降，带动其挂牌去化周期持续下行；本次存量住房收储面向供给压力最为直接的二手房供给，也属对症下 药的积极举措，我们估算上海可交易存量住房约970万套，本次试点三区占比约32%，其中2000年以前建成的老房占比约15%，体量也相对可观；此外， 收储政策本身带来的积极信号意义可能对挂牌去化周期的进一步优化也有作用。我们持续提示，社会库存偏低的上海、北京可能更早迎来周期拐点，有助 于去库存的积极政策对此有加速作用。 新增土地供给方案决定预期改善的持续性。 本次上海试点政策仍旧侧重于在本区有新房置换意愿的群体，这是保证区域内部资金闭环的合理安排，但更 关键的是后续新增土地供给方案。2025年二季度起超高/高能级城市房价走势显著弱于中低能级城市，很大程度上与2024年4季度到2025年上半 ...

2026年初，印尼股市面临关键转折点。摩根士丹利资本国际公司明晟指数（MSCI）发布警告，由于上市公司流通股比例持续偏低、透明度不足（多数企 业存在股权集中问题），导致市场交易冷清、波动剧烈且存在价格操纵风险，该国可能从新兴市场降级为前沿市场。印尼面临的MSCI困境源于结构性流 通股短缺，但我们认为，印尼金融服务管理局、证券交易所与达纳塔拉主权财富基金的主动改革或将开辟破局之路。 我们认为短期内将流通股最低比例提至15%、增强数据透明度、并有效调配达纳塔拉资金，或有助于避免降级，稳定印尼在MSCI新兴市场指数中1%的权 重。与此同时，推动企业在港交所或新交所双重上市，可作为市场多元化的战略路径，明确的制度框架将支持企业实现全球化布局。若能迅速落实这些措 施，当前的结构性弱点有望转化为制度优势，从而培育一个更具流动性、更符合投资者需求的市场生态。然而，改革成效取决于能否高效执行，并需通过 与MSCI保持持续沟通以重塑市场信心。 从宏观经济基本面来看，我们继续对印尼2026年的发展前景保持乐观。在扩张性货币政策支撑、大宗商品行业持续活跃（受益于黄金、铜、镍、铝等国际 价格高位运行）、内需稳步增强以及民生必需品增值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of adjustment after a rapid rise, with potential for a slow bull market supported by favorable factors. The current market favors growth styles, with emerging opportunities in low-priced stocks [2]. Group 1: Energy and Basic Materials - Coal prices are in a state of fluctuation, with January prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and coke rising by 2%, 4%, and 2% respectively. The coal industry maintains stable profitability and cash flow, with a current dividend yield of 5.3% [9]. - Oil prices have shown a 14% increase month-on-month in January, but a year-on-year decrease of 11%. Geopolitical risks are rising, impacting oil supply and prices [10]. - The prices of non-ferrous metals have seen significant increases, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 35% in January. The demand is supported by AI applications and the proliferation of new energy [11]. Group 2: Industrial Products - The AI industry chain remains highly prosperous, with strong domestic demand for engineering machinery and a projected 18% increase in domestic excavator sales by 2025. The photovoltaic industry is also seeing price recoveries [3]. - The automotive sector is facing a projected 6% decline in sales by November 2025, with a focus on opportunities related to overseas markets and smart driving [3]. Group 3: Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are experiencing a decline, with sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners dropping by 27%, 37%, and 36% year-on-year in December 2025. The effectiveness of consumption support policies is under observation [4]. - The average purchase price of live pigs remains stable at 14 yuan/kg, with a total pig stock of 429.67 million heads by the end of 2025, indicating a relatively abundant supply [4]. Group 4: Technology - The domestic AI application landscape is seeing significant developments, with multiple domestic large models being released. The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global sales increasing by 30% year-on-year in November [5]. - The gaming industry is recovering, with 1,771 game licenses issued in 2025, indicating a positive trend [5]. Group 5: Financials - The stock market sentiment has improved significantly, with insurance premium income rising by 7% year-on-year in December 2025. The average daily trading volume of A-shares exceeded 30 trillion yuan in January [5].

2026年春节档临近（法定假期共9天，有效放映天数为7天，和2025年春节档有效放映天数持平），据猫眼专业版，截至2026年1月28日12时共有6部影 片定档2月17日（大年初一）上映，已定档影片中，《飞驰人生3》《惊蛰无声》《镖人》等关注度较高。行业储备包括《年夜"犯"》《澎湖海战》 等。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 春节档的档期效应有助于催化单 片弹 性。 根据艺恩数据，2021至2025年春节档含服票房分别为78/60/68/82/95亿元，占全年票房比分别约 17%/20%/12%/19%/19%。根据猫眼专业版，中国电影票房榜单TOP10中有6部来自春节档，其中近三年内上映的包括《哪吒之魔童闹海》（总票房约155 亿元）和《满江红》（总票房约45亿元）。我们判断春节档为开年重要档期，往往为全年票房发展奠基，具有催化单片票房弹性的潜力。 2026年春节档影片已定档6部影片，票房面临高基数影响。 我们认为，2026年春节档国产片定档时间偏晚（2025年提前一个月左右），档期票房亦面临 2025年《哪吒2》带来的高基数影响；由于进口片《疯狂动物城2》和《阿凡达3》密钥延至2026春节档 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of commercial aerospace is driving the evolution of space photovoltaics as a core direction for power system upgrades, with a focus on the transformation of the entire industry chain and the manufacturing sector's intensive delivery [1][2]. Group 1: Commercial Aerospace and Market Dynamics - The space economy has become a core competitive arena in technology, with photovoltaics being the preferred energy source in space environments [2]. - The global low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite layout is accelerating, driven by the increasing number of satellites and the expansion of single-satellite power consumption [2][3]. - The demand for space solar arrays is being driven by the need for cost reduction and efficiency improvements in the context of satellite manufacturing entering an industrialized production era [2][3]. Group 2: Technological Evolution and Market Potential - The technology routes for space photovoltaics are diversifying, with a market potential expected to reach hundreds of billions by 2025-2030, primarily serving traditional low Earth orbit applications [2][3]. - The evolution of solar cell technology is moving from silicon to gallium arsenide and high-efficiency heterojunction (HJT) and perovskite solutions, indicating a broad market space [2][3][26]. Group 3: Industry Chain and Competitive Landscape - The space photovoltaic industry chain includes manufacturing, launching, and operational services, with a focus on the verification cycles provided by actual satellite windows [3][5]. - Companies with the capability for in-orbit verification and production line implementation are expected to gain a first-mover advantage in the market [3][39]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by the need for space environment testing capabilities and collaboration with satellite constellation projects [39]. Group 4: Emerging Applications and Demand Forecast - The demand for space photovoltaics is projected to grow significantly, particularly with the rise of space computing applications, which will further expand the power consumption needs of satellites [2][10]. - The market for space photovoltaics is expected to see a stepwise increase post-2030, contingent on optimistic deployment scenarios for space computing [2][38]. Group 5: Technological Routes and Innovations - Various technological routes are emerging in space photovoltaics, including multi-junction gallium arsenide, HJT, and perovskite technologies, each with distinct advantages and challenges [26][30][36]. - The focus on energy quality ratio, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness is driving innovation in solar cell technologies suitable for space applications [26][30].

点击小程序查看报告原文 A股今日表现偏弱 ， 上证指数下跌2.5%。 2026年初A股市场在乐观预期、产业事件性催化、流动性相对充裕等因素影响下延续上行趋势，但换手率过 高、情绪偏热后，市场自1月13日震荡调整。今日A股市场主要指数普跌，上证指数跌2.5%，沪深300跌2.1%，偏成长风格的科创50和创业板指分别跌 3.9%、2.5%，中证红利跌3.1%。成交层面，今日成交额2.6万亿元，较前一个交易日缩量约0.26万亿元。行业层面，食品饮料、银行表现相对韧性，其他 行业普跌，此前连续上行的有色金属板块今日跌幅较大，作为权重板块拖累指数表现。与此同时，今日已收盘的亚太市场整体表现不佳，恒生指数跌 2.2%，日经225跌1.3%，韩国KOSPI跌5.3%。 今日A股出现较大调整，主要来自外部不确定性提升。 包括： 1）下一任美联储主席提名影响美宽松预期。 1月30日美国总统特朗普在社媒宣布，提名美 联储委员会前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席[1]。沃什曾被认为是货币政策偏"鹰派"人物，但近期公开表示倾向于较低的利率，支持采取"缩表+降息"的 组合[2]。与此前其他热门候选人相比，沃什过往的"鹰派"立场削弱了市场 ...