致力于打造开放共享的金融业知识平台， 中金点睛数字化投研平台诚邀您深度体验 ！ 中金点睛是集成中金研究分析师投研智慧的一站式数字化投研服务平台，依托中金研究 30 多个专业团队、全球市场视野、超 1800 支个股覆盖的 深度积淀，提供研究报告、会议活动、基本面数据库、研究框架等分析师研究成果，并结合大模型技术，致力于为客户提供高效、专业、准确的研 究服务。 点击图片，即刻登录体验 r store the true to the month to the sent to www.research.cicc.com），手机号登录即享 ■ 研究观点 日度更新投研焦点,精选文章及时推送 中金晨报 2 公开直播 资深分析师及时解读市场热点 公开路海 B 精品视频 用年下文 真人出镜,图文并茂,直观展示 CICC REITs TALK 2,8 认证即享 升级权益 邮箱认证,解锁三大升级功能 Ac 8 0 请输入您的问题 V ■ 研究报告 3W+ 完整版研报 宏观经济 行业研究 大宗商品 � 数据与研究框架 160+ 行业研究框架 行业数据 40+ 精品数据库 精品数据看板 8 中金点晴大模型 - (1) 0 o AI搜索 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 >>点击图片查看全文<< A股历史上难以形成慢牛，是基本面、制度面、资金面多重因素交织的结果。但随着宏观范式转变与资本市场制度改革推进，A股底层环境已从量 变引发质变：国际货币秩序重构带来"新秩序"，全球资金再配置为A股注入外部动力；经济转型与新质生产力崛起形成"新动能"，盈利稳定性与可 持续性显著提升；投融资改革、"稳市"机制与中长期资金入市构建"新生态"，市场韧性与吸引力持续增强。在此背景下，A股"这次可能不一样"， 比以往更具备形成"有底无顶"慢牛的条件，这一慢牛对金融强国建设、消费提振、产业升级具有深远意义。而慢牛的最终实现，仍依赖我国坚定不 移推进经济转型、深化资本市场制度改革，持续提升市场中长期吸引力，让"有底无顶"的慢牛真正成为中国经济高质量发展的重要支撑。 01 策略 Strategy "有底无顶"的慢牛如何形成？ ——新秩序，新动能，新生态 2026.1.18 | 缪延亮 黄凯松等 02 策略 Strategy 提升人民币储备货币地位 >>点击图片查看全文<< 市场自发力量、政策推动、历史惯性是一国货币取得国际储备货币地位的三大 ...

中金研究 近期美国和欧洲之间因地缘局势产生新的关税争端，我们用此篇系统性展示关税现状及对欧洲经济和市场的影响，以帮助投资者追踪最新情况及后续 潜在的演变。 注：橙色部分是美国本次针对格陵兰事件提出的拟增加关税税率，原定于2026年2月1日生效；数据统计截至2026年1月20日 资料来源：Trump 2.0 tariff tracker，中金公司研究部 点击小程序查看报告原文 ► 欧美关税争端最新情况： 2026年1月17日，特朗普宣布向8个欧洲国家加征10%的关税，从2月1日起实施。同时，他宣称加征的关税税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直到相关方就美 国"全面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。涉及的8个欧洲国家包括：丹麦，挪威，瑞典，法国，德国，英国，荷兰，芬兰，其中6个是欧盟成员国（英国， 挪威除外）。 特朗普于周三表示，经过与北约秘书长的谈判，将不再对一系列欧洲国家征收原定于2月1日起实施的关税。后续相关事项的变化及欧洲的反应仍存在较大 的不确定性。在此之前，欧盟的贸易协定内容除了欧盟对美出口的大部分货物适用于最高15%的关税税率外，欧盟也承诺增加对美国投资、购买美国的能 源品和芯片，并取消对美国工业品的关税 ...

中金研究 中金公司研究部发布了2026年一季度图说中国，本产品汇集了中金公司研究部宏观、策略、量化及ESG、固收、大宗、外汇等各组对于当前中国经 济、市场和资产价格的最新观点和数据更新。近120页的图册提供了对于中国市场的一个全景式展示和介绍，这对于希望快速了解中国市场的投资者是 一个很好的总结和更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 日录 | • 中金研究团队介绍 ………………… – p. 2 | | | --- | --- | | • 宏观经济 … | p. 3 | | ● 市场策略 | p. 14 | | • 量化及ESG | | | ● 固定收益 … | p. 51 | | ● 大宗商品 . | p. 81 | | · 外汇研究 . | p. 97 | 注： 除特别说明，本产品中所有价格数据均截至2026年1月19日 返回目ঙ | | 中金研究团队介绍 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观经济 | 市场策略 | 量化及ESG | 固定收益 | 大宗商品 | | · 彭文生 | · 缪延亮 | · 刘均伟 | · 陈健恒 | · 郭朝辉 | | · 张文朗 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Macau gaming industry is expected to see a total gaming revenue growth of 6% year-on-year in 2026, recovering to 90% of 2019 levels, driven primarily by the robust growth of the mass market segment, while the VIP segment is anticipated to remain under pressure with a projected decline of 6% year-on-year [1][2][4]. Revenue Projections - Total gaming revenue in Macau is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year in 2026, reaching 90% of 2019 levels, mainly due to the steady growth of the mass market segment [2][4]. - Mass market gaming revenue, including slot machines, is expected to increase by 7% year-on-year, recovering to 117% of 2019 levels [2][5]. - VIP gaming revenue is forecasted to decline by 6% year-on-year, only recovering to 30% of 2019 levels, influenced by high win rates in 2025 and conservative credit policies from operators [5][21]. EBITDA and Profitability - The EBITDA margin for the gaming sector is expected to improve by 6% to 24.9% in 2026, primarily due to the closure of satellite casinos, which will enhance profitability, although competition in the Macau Peninsula may slightly impact margins [1][24]. - The closure of satellite casinos is anticipated to lead to a marginal improvement in the overall industry EBITDA margin, with a projected increase from 23.6% in 2025 to 24.9% in 2026 [24][36]. Market Dynamics - The closure of satellite casinos is expected to reshape the competitive landscape in the Macau Peninsula, as the demand from former satellite casino customers will still exist, potentially benefiting nearby casinos [10][21]. - The mass market segment is likely to continue driving the industry, supported by diversified entertainment activities, favorable exchange rates, and a strong global capital market enhancing overseas demand [1][24]. Visitor Trends and Demand - Macau has transformed into an "activity city," hosting various large-scale entertainment events, which is expected to attract more visitors and enhance gaming demand [24][25]. - The number of overseas visitors to Macau is projected to continue increasing, driven by the wealth effect from rising capital markets in neighboring regions [26]. Regulatory Environment - The increase in royalty fees by operators, such as MGM China, may lead to concerns among investors regarding potential similar adjustments across the industry, which could pressure valuations [28][29]. - The Macau government may intervene in the industry, potentially affecting dividend distributions and operational efficiency, although these proposals have not been finalized in the latest gaming law [31][39]. Valuation Adjustments - The valuation basis for the gaming sector has been adjusted from EV/Adjusted EBITDA to EV/EBITDA to more accurately reflect operational performance amid changing royalty rates [39][34]. - The current valuation corresponds to a multiple of 9 times the expected EV/EBITDA for 2026, which is below the pre-pandemic average of 14 times [39].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical opportunities and necessary measures for enhancing the internationalization and reserve status of the Renminbi (RMB), emphasizing the need for a multi-faceted approach to overcome existing barriers and challenges [2][17]. Group 1: Characteristics and Determinants of International Reserve Currencies - International reserve currencies are defined as currencies widely accepted for international payments, with their status reflecting a country's comprehensive national strength and international standing [4]. - The three main drivers of a currency's reserve status are market forces, policy support, and historical inertia, with market forces being the most fundamental [4][5]. - The strength of market forces is determined by a currency's ability to meet the three primary demands for foreign exchange reserves: precautionary international payment needs, exchange rate stability needs, and value preservation needs [5][6]. Group 2: Progress and Significance of RMB as a Reserve Currency - Before the 2008 global financial crisis, RMB internationalization was limited, but post-crisis, demand for RMB surged due to China's economic recovery and trade rebound [14]. - The People's Bank of China has actively promoted RMB internationalization by enhancing its use in cross-border trade and investment, including the establishment of various mechanisms for RMB-denominated investments [14][16]. - Despite recent progress, RMB's share in global foreign exchange reserves remains below 2%, indicating significant room for improvement compared to its weight in the SDR basket [17]. Group 3: Main Obstacles to Enhancing RMB's Reserve Currency Status - The primary internal obstacles to RMB's reserve currency status include a mismatch between trade settlement and trade volume, and insufficient development and openness of the financial market [19][20]. - Trade settlement in RMB is significantly lower than China's trade volume, with only 3.87% of global trade settlements conducted in RMB, highlighting the need for increased acceptance and use of RMB in international transactions [22]. - Factors such as market position, financing conditions, and historical inertia contribute to the low adoption of RMB for trade settlements [23][24]. Group 4: "Three Carriages" to Enhance RMB's Reserve Currency Status - The article proposes a "three carriages" approach to enhance RMB's reserve currency status, focusing on promoting cross-border trade settlement in RMB, advancing financial market development and openness, and leveraging regionalization to boost RMB's international use [33][34]. - Key measures include increasing the use of RMB in major commodity imports, providing economic incentives for businesses to settle in RMB, and optimizing cross-border RMB settlement services for key enterprises [35][36]. - Developing both offshore and onshore RMB markets is crucial, with recommendations for improving market infrastructure and expanding the range of RMB-denominated financial products available to international investors [37][38].

以下文章来源于中金公司CICC ，作者中金公司 中金公司CICC . 中国国际金融股份有限公司（中金公司）成立于1995年，致力于为多元化的客户群体提供高质量金融增值服务，建立了以研究和信息技术为基础，投资银 行、股票业务、固定收益、资产管理、私募股权和财富管理全方位发展的均衡业务结构。 1月21日至22日，中金公司周期行业研讨会在上海成功举办。本次会议以"论道周期，乘势而为"为主题，围绕"资源、能源、中游资本品"三大方 向，从宏观、政策、产业等多个维度深入探讨和分析。中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长彭文生出席会议并致开幕辞。 聚焦宏观修复与产业重估，探讨周期⾏业新机遇 在当前经济运行逐步企稳、产业结构持续演进的背景下，周期行业正处于新一轮调整与重估的重要阶段。来自能源、资源及中游资本品等领域的十余 位产业嘉宾与中金研究团队展开深入交流，共同探讨周期行业运行逻辑的变化及潜在投资机会。会议吸引了近1200名投资界、产业界和学术界的嘉 宾报名参会。 中金公司研究部首席宏观分析师张文朗作"双变局重塑资产配置"主题发言。来自建材、矿业及石化行业的多位产业嘉宾分别发表主题演讲，从行业实 践角度分享对周 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 "十五五"是我国碳达峰攻坚关键期，但近年来全国碳排放增速不降反升，能源结构清洁化和产业结构去重化两大转型面临挑战。随着碳达峰与"反内卷"都 已成为重要政策目标，"反内卷"对绿色转型的潜在影响尚未被市场充分探讨，我们认为未来"反内卷"与绿色转型有望协同。 "内卷式"竞争长期来看可能不利于绿色转型。 能源结构清洁化层面，内卷虽然在短期内能更快地压低清洁能源价格，但从长期来看反而会延缓其成本下 降趋势，因为利润下滑会削弱企业的研发投入能力，竞争烈度和创新绩效之间存在倒U型关系。产业结构去重化层面，内卷加剧产能利用率低和供需失衡 等，低效投资、以量补价等行为也可导致碳排放上升，特别是对于高碳产业来讲。 "反内卷"对绿色转型意味着什么？ 能源结构清洁化的关键是降低绿色溢价，在"反内卷"成功这一理想情景下，即各行业实现盈亏平衡、价格回归合理水 平、低效投资得到有效控制的假设下，我们估计 绿色溢价会从"反内卷"前的-21%下降8-11个百分点。 具体来说，煤价回升至合理水平会提高煤电度电成 本约16%，而光伏度电成本在"仅不低于成本销售"这一政策情景时上涨约4%，在"不低于成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market is expected to continue its growth in both scale and structure, with a focus on the importance of institutional funds and the potential decline in the influence of thematic ETFs in the future [3]. Domestic Market: Policy and Market Development - The regulatory environment is enhancing the ETF industry ecosystem, with various measures introduced by the CSRC and exchanges to support the establishment and expansion of ETF products [4]. Scale and Growth: Market Expansion - By the end of 2025, the ETF market size exceeded 6 trillion yuan, marking a 61.7% increase from the beginning of the year, with the number of products rising to 1,381, a growth of 33.7% [5]. - All types of ETFs experienced varying degrees of growth, with stock, bond, commodity, and money market ETFs increasing by 44%, 376%, 231%, and 11% respectively [5]. Product Structure and Trends - As of the end of 2025, stock ETFs dominated the market, comprising 93% of the total number of ETFs, while their scale accounted for 79% of the total ETF market size [7]. - Thematic and cross-border products saw significant growth, with cross-border products increasing by 120% [11]. Fund Flows and Investor Behavior - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of approximately 450 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 57% compared to 2024, indicating a "buy high, sell low" behavior among investors [12]. - Bond ETFs saw explosive growth, with a total scale increase of 376% to 828.2 billion yuan, driven by policy support and new product launches [13]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for ETFs is becoming more intense, with a decline in concentration among fund companies and products, as evidenced by the market share of the top five companies dropping from 67% to 56% [15]. Product Issuance: Record Highs - In 2025, a record 356 passive ETFs were issued, with a total issuance scale of 251.2 billion yuan, marking a 106% increase from 2024 [15]. Outlook for 2026: Growth Potential - The absolute scale of the ETF market is expected to continue rising, with a projected growth rate of 0% to 5% from new issuances, while net inflows are anticipated to contribute 10% to 30% to the growth [30]. - The market is expected to see a slight increase in the share of passive products due to ongoing reforms and the demand for tool-based passive products [31]. Active vs. Passive Investment - Active equity products are predicted to slightly outperform index products in 2026, with a forecasted excess return of 2.5% [47]. - The market is expected to remain stable or show slight upward trends, supporting the performance of active products [47]. Thematic ETFs: Future Prospects - Thematic ETFs have regained prominence in 2025, primarily driven by significant capital inflows, contrasting with previous years where growth was mainly from new product issuances [48].

点击小程序查看报告原文 开年以来，地缘风险和财政纪律问题加剧市场波动。近期日本政府计划推出减税政策，引发市场对日债可持续性的担忧，1月20日新发行的40年期日债利 率日内陡升超过25bps（6-sigma shock），升破4%的历史新高[1]。此外，当地时间1月17日，特朗普宣布对阻止美国获得格陵兰的8个欧洲国家自2月1日起 征收10%的惩罚性关税[2]，引发欧洲市场可能抛售美债的担忧，10年期美债利率当日走高5.1bps上破阻力位4.2%。1月20日，丹麦养老金Akademiker Pension宣布出于地缘风险、财政纪律和弱美元的担忧停止购买美债[3]，美国市场股债汇"三杀"，10年期利率一度突破4.3%。 美日国债风暴加速倒逼YCC 地缘风险和财政纪律性问题是去年以来美日国债多次同步大规模抛售的重要原因。 供给侧，财政纪律废弛导致债务加速大量发行。去年"大而美法案"超 预期快速通过，市场预估10年增加近5万亿美元赤字[4]，而本周高市政府提出的消费税削减计划可能每年增加5万亿日元的赤字[5]，我们估计约占2025年 日本GDP的0.78%。当前，美、日财政融资难、融资贵问题已较为明显，随着疫情后利率中 ...