Abstract 摘要 在金本位时代，黄金曾是国际货币体系运转的中心，全球经济和贸易在金本位制度下迎来空前繁荣。布雷顿森林体系瓦解后，美元凭借深厚的 金融市场、强大的主权信用与完善的制度保障，成为国际货币体系的中心，而黄金则退居为一种具有风险分散功能的特殊商品。 然而近年来，随着美国经济相对优势下降、国家债务负担加重，美元的制度信任开始在霸权滥用下出现裂缝。尤其是2022年俄乌冲突与2025年 特朗普"对等关税"后，全球投资者开始重新评估美元资产的安全性，国际货币体系加速走向碎片化与多元化。在国际货币体系动荡的时代，人 们很自然地把目光重新投向黄金，黄金确实也经历了一轮显著的价值重估，并且与美债利率"脱锚"。 黄金能否替代美元，重新成为国际货币体系运转的中心？我们认为过去几年黄金价格屡创新高，并不意味着旧制度卷土重来，而是新世界裂变 的回声。真正发生的不是金本位的"复活"，而是美元霸权的基础开始动摇，多极货币体系的雏形正在显现。黄金正在被重新定价，但由于全球 经济政治格局已经改变，金本位亦有其内在缺陷，我们已不可能再回到那个由稀缺金属决定货币秩序的时代。黄金在多极化格局中仍可充当储 值与避险资产，但它无法替代 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to experience a significant supply-demand reversal in 2026, transitioning into a state of supply shortage, with an anticipated passenger load factor reaching 87% [2][40][44] Supply - The effective supply will remain tight in 2026, with an expected ASK growth rate of 2.7%. Boeing and Airbus are recovering production capacity slowly, currently at about 70% of pre-pandemic levels, and global supply chain issues, particularly with engine quality, persist [4][18] - The delivery volume from COMAC is expected to decline significantly in 2025 due to global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, limiting the short-term impact of domestic aircraft on industry capacity [7][20] - Engine issues are affecting the availability of aircraft, with an increase in grounded planes expected in 2026 due to technical and quality problems with mainstream engines [9][11] Demand - Demand remains resilient, with an expected growth rate of about 5% in 2026, constrained by supply limitations. The return of business travelers is expected to support this growth [22][36] - The domestic aviation demand growth rate is still higher than that of rail, indicating strong resilience and some irreplaceable demand for air travel [25][30] Ticket Prices - Ticket prices are projected to increase moderately in 2026, approaching 2019 levels, with seasonal fluctuations expected. The price increase in the off-peak season may exceed that of the peak season due to tighter supply [45][48]

得益于内需强劲、投资逐步复苏以及大宗商品价格利好，印尼经济有望在2026年实现加速增长，官方预测GDP增速区间为5.4%至6%。我们建议政策制定 者优先关注以下方面：1）通过拓宽信贷渠道与加强收入支持，重振家庭消费；2）破除投资壁垒；3）加速人力资本建设以提升生产率。 ► 在战略性赤字与财政收入刺激之间寻求平衡： 2026年财政政策应优先着眼于战略灵活性与高质量支出。关键举措包括：扩大税基以降低对资源的依 赖，战略性调整支出结构、将资金重新配置至基础设施与人力资本等高乘数投资领域，同时探索转向周期性平均赤字目标机制，以增强政策应对能力。 中金研究 本报告阐述了我们对印尼经济的2026年展望。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 2025年回顾：以改革锻造韧性 面对多重阻力与政治过渡期，印尼经济在2025年仍展现韧性，三季度GDP同比增速小幅放缓至5.04%。经济发展得益于财政刺激、强劲出口表现以及政府 消费支撑，货币政策则从宽松转向以维持汇率稳定为主。2025年亦见证了主权财富基金Danantara的启动。该基金已开始向下游化产业、粮食安全及电动 汽车（EV）等领域投放资本，为其在2026年发挥更 ...

中金研究 今年3月以来，中国钨精矿价格自14.2万元/吨上涨至9月10日28.8万元/吨高位，随后回落至26.7万元附近企稳。10月中旬以来，钨价再度开启上涨行 情，并连续创下历史新高。截至12月5日，钨价达35.1万元/吨，年初至今涨幅高达147%。我们持续看好钨价牛市，并就市场关注的主要问题进行解 析。 Abstract 摘要 一问：钨价向下游的价格传导情况如何？首先， 钨价向APT、钨粉的传导较为顺畅，且两者加工费均较年初明显提升。 其次， 年初至今下游企业通过产 品提价、推出新品等方式实现价格传导，叠加原料库存受益于钨价上涨，毛利率持续提升。11月前后硬质合金、钨化工企业再次计划提价，涨价呈扩散态 势。 钨价向APT、钨粉的传导较为顺畅 二问：产业链库存情况如何？生产商环节， 库存已去化至较低水平。据亚洲金属网，10月国内APT、碳化钨生产商库存为800吨、1027吨，环 比-31%、-36%。 下游企业环节，根据我们测算， 三季度企业销售较为顺畅，且原材料库存囤货现象并不显著，叠加产业链存在涨价预期，我们预计补库 需求仍有较强支撑。 三问：出口政策是否压制钨制品出口？ 我们认为对出口量压制有限，并有 ...

中金研究 中国大型储能行业正经历从"政策驱动"向"市场化驱动"的关键转折，商业模式逐步清晰、应用场景趋于多元，行业进入规模化、高质量发展的新阶 段。 Abstract 摘要 项目招标数据景气向上，优质电芯供给紧缺。 2025年1-10月国内新型储能招标规模达205.30GWh，同比+45%，央国企集采规模同比+61%，驱动装机规模 持续高增。供给侧头部电芯企业产能利用率接近满产，我们预计供需偏紧态势或将延续至2Q26。 商业模式走向主动价值创造，多元社会资本进场推动储能建设。 "136号文"前，强配项目的价值来源是 "获取新能源路条"，储能价值未能充分体现。"136 号文"后，独立储能可通过"峰谷价差套利+容量市场+辅助服务"发挥真实价值。我们对全国七省区的独立储能经济性进行测算，蒙西、新疆、河北南网资 本金IRR可达10%以上，山西、山东、甘肃在6.5%以上。在此背景下，以专业化基金的形式投资和运营储能电站有望成为大势所趋，多元社会资本加速入 局推动储能建设。 容量电价政策带来短期抢装潮，看好中长期储能需求增长。 我们认为短期内优质节点资源紧缺，在各省容量电价出台的预期下，社会资本纷纷入场，独 立储能有望在 ...

中金研究 2024年9月以来A股震荡上行已超一年，防范市场波动是未来需要考虑的问题。我们尝试结合A股历史经验教训复盘及当前新形势，构建市场"顶部"判 别的方法论，与前期关于" 底部 "判别研究共同形成"稳市"监测框架。从我们构造的"顶部"信号打分体系来看，当前市场相对健康，估值合理且上行的 底层逻辑并未发生动摇。 点击小程序查看报告原文 A股"稳市"监测体系构建初探：提升资本市场内在稳定性，助力防范"大起大落" 我国资本市场"稳市"环境迎来新变化、新需求。 近期监管层就"稳市"相关表态较多，10月证监会主席吴清在金融街论坛年会上强调"健全长效化稳市机 制，防范市场大幅波动"[1]；11月证监会副主席李明在上交所国际投资者大会上表态"强化战略性力量储备和稳市机制建设，提升资本市场内在稳定性，坚 决防止市场大起大落、急涨急跌"[2]；12月证监会主席吴清在证券业协会会员大会上再次强调资本市场"稳中求进、以进促稳"[3]，"从政策、资金、预期 对冲等方面打好稳市组合拳"。我们在今年9月发布 《A股"长期"、"稳进"的四大条件》 ，11月发布的 《2026年A股展望：乘势笃行》 中强调节奏上"防范 波动"。"稳市"机 ...

中金研究 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作[1]。会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，"实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给"，并将"内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。我们认为在国内供求矛盾比较突出、外围环境仍 有挑战的背景下，明年总量政策或将适度加力，财政货币也可能加大协同以提升治理效能。我们认为结构方面的政策可能"增减"并行，既做加法，也 做减法，以改善政策效率，既提振需求，也改善供给，以实现合理增长。 点击小程序查看报告原文 供求失衡现象仍然比较突出。 一方面，金融周期下行调整，资源配置优化，供给能力得到增强，绿色经济和人工智能产业规模效应显现、出口在贸易摩 擦下持续展现韧性都是供给端竞争力提升的体现。另一方面，周期和结构调整带来需求不足，金融周期下行调整通过明斯基的财富效应以及费雪债务-低 通胀等效应制约国内需求。结构优化与技术进步导致劳动密度和劳动需求下降、就业不充分。继4月政治局会议[2]后，本次会议再次提出更好"统筹国内 经济工作和国际经贸斗争"，并将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在八大任务第一条。这与"十五五 ...

中金研究 我们认为Google TPUv7的推出，标志着ASICs集群在异于传统GPGPU的架构上加速自研，使得硬件价值上带来了异构与重塑，同时有望加速AI算力硬 件如PCB、液冷、电源等算力硬件市场规模的量价齐升。展望2027年，AI PCB/液冷/电源芯片市场规模有望分别达216.5/201.8/183.9亿美元。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 谷歌TPU十年架构演进: 自2016 年 Google正式披露TPU v1以来，已经历了十年的架构演进，TPU由推理专用的脉动阵列，已发展至近万卡集群的训练芯 片，其中引入了OCS光交换架构以及HBM高带宽存储。目前Google已发布TPUv7芯片进一步突破了双芯粒封装架构，在超大规模集群下的线性加速比显著 提升。 Google下一代TPUv7硬件端带来较大变化： 托盘架构上，包含16个标准化计算托盘，每个托盘上承载4颗TPU芯片；电源架构上采用+/- 400V高压直流方 案（HVDC）；服务器散热方面，采用100%液冷架构，采用大冷板设计，覆盖4颗TPU及VRM；集群规模上最大支持144个机架互联，即9216个TPU芯片 集群。 我们对谷歌TP ...

Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle by 2026, driven by improved liability trends and a return to growth-oriented valuation logic for high-quality companies [2][3][8]. Group 1: Life Insurance Trends - Five key trends in the life insurance industry are anticipated: 1) Continued rapid growth of new business, embracing "deposit migration" and a "new era of health insurance"; 2) Further reduction in the rigid costs of new business, enhancing its value proposition; 3) Diversification in new business product structures, with significant optimization in quality companies; 4) Upward migration of customer tiers, prompting upgrades in operational models and talent; 5) Concentration of competition among companies with strong life insurance operational capabilities [3][8][9]. - The "deposit migration" phenomenon is expected to become more pronounced, with savings-type insurance products gaining traction in a low-interest-rate environment, providing a more attractive yield compared to bank deposits [9][11]. - The health insurance sector is projected to recover, with new business premiums returning to growth by 2026, supported by policy reforms and the removal of operational bottlenecks [11][41]. Group 2: Financial Insurance Insights - The property and casualty insurance sector is expected to see stable growth in auto insurance premiums, with head companies optimizing their business structures to improve underwriting profitability [33][35]. - Non-auto insurance is anticipated to experience moderate growth, with health insurance emerging as a significant growth driver, particularly in light of ongoing regulatory reforms [40][41]. - The industry is positioned to replicate successful overseas expansion strategies seen in Japan's insurance sector during the 1980s, leveraging China's Belt and Road Initiative and the growing overseas presence of Chinese enterprises [44][46]. Group 3: Hong Kong Life Insurance - The life insurance business in Hong Kong is expected to regain investment appeal as foreign attitudes towards Chinese assets shift, coinciding with a new growth phase in the mainland insurance market [4][50]. - The competitive landscape is likely to favor high-quality Hong Kong insurers, as they adapt to the evolving dynamics of the mainland market and capitalize on upward customer migration trends [51].

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of October, investor risk appetite has decreased, leading to pressure on global risk assets, with the S&P, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng Tech experiencing maximum declines of 5.1%, 7.3%, and 12.6% respectively. This is attributed to concerns over the AI bubble, tight liquidity in the repurchase market, and fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Liquidity - The current market, particularly for liquidity-sensitive tech stocks, requires either breakthroughs in AI industry trends or significant improvements in liquidity for any upward movement [4]. - A series of events affecting liquidity is anticipated in the coming month, including the FOMC meeting on December 11, where an 88% probability of a rate cut is priced in, but the market will be attentive to any hawkish statements or discussions about restarting balance sheet expansion [4][5]. - The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on December 19 is also a concern, as it may echo last year's liquidity "storm" [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The expectation for a December rate cut is well established, with the focus on the dot plot and statements from the Fed. A return to neutral rates may require three cuts [5][7]. - Recent data indicates a need for rate cuts due to high current rates suppressing traditional demand, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in contraction for eight consecutive months and a significant drop in consumer confidence [7][11]. - The Fed's ability to cut rates is supported by recent inflation data, which suggests that tariff impacts on inflation are less significant than previously feared, with consumer exposure to tariffs at only 11% [13][15]. Group 3: New Fed Chair Nomination - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair is critical, with Kevin Hassett being the frontrunner. His potential policies may lean towards more dovish stances while maintaining some restraint to preserve the Fed's independence [20][21]. - If Hassett is appointed, he may advocate for more aggressive rate cuts than currently anticipated, which could stimulate the economy but also raise concerns about the Fed's independence [27][28]. - The market is closely monitoring how the new chair will balance the need for rate cuts with the preservation of the Fed's autonomy, as excessive dovishness could lead to fears of political influence over monetary policy [20][27]. Group 4: Market Implications - The potential for the Fed to restart balance sheet expansion could significantly enhance market liquidity and support financial assets. The cessation of balance sheet reduction and the potential for further expansion are expected to improve liquidity conditions [29][30]. - The overall financial liquidity in the U.S. is projected to expand by 7%-14% in 2026, which is likely to have a positive correlation with U.S. equities [37][41]. - The anticipated actions of the Fed and the new chair could lead to fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, with short-term pressures expected but a long-term recovery likely if independence is maintained [54][55].