Strategy - The active performance of the Hong Kong stock market in both primary and secondary markets is closely linked to liquidity, which plays a more significant role than in the A-share market [3] - The overall liquidity in the Hong Kong market has been loose this year, driven by macroeconomic weakness and asset scarcity, leading to increased southbound capital inflows and more companies listing in Hong Kong [3] - Looking ahead, the liquidity trend in the Hong Kong market may face tightening pressures in Q3, with a potential demand for funds exceeding 300 billion HKD for IPOs and placements, while the supply of funds will depend on the "profit-making effect" [3] Macroeconomy - The recent rebound of the US dollar index and the weakening of the euro raises questions about whether this is a short-term phenomenon or a structural reversal [6] - The new classical framework suggests that the current account is the main determinant of exchange rates, while the post-Keynesian view emphasizes capital flows as the fundamental force affecting exchange rates [6] - In the short term, the significant increase in net supply of US Treasury bonds may lead to further depreciation of the dollar, while the euro may appreciate [6] Strategy - The current stock-bond relationship differs from historical patterns, with the recent stock market rally driven by bank stocks and small-cap stocks, leading to a "bull market in stocks and stable bonds" [9] - This shift indicates that liquidity, rather than growth expectations, is the primary driver of the stock-bond relationship, suggesting lower risk appetite and limited negative impact on the bond market [9] - It is recommended to maintain a conservative asset allocation until uncertainties regarding tariffs are resolved, while continuing to overweight high-dividend stocks and bonds [9] Strategy - Five significant changes in the funding landscape of the A-share market are identified, including the restructuring of monetary order benefiting RMB assets, an increase in the proportion of individual investors, and improved market attractiveness due to asset scarcity [12] - The funding structure in the A-share market is improving, leading to a positive feedback loop in the funding environment, while many institutional investors are at historically low positions, indicating potential bullish sentiment [12] - While the mid-term market trend is determined by fundamentals, the influence of capital flows may temporarily exceed that of fundamentals, suggesting a relatively positive outlook for the second half of the year [12] Stablecoins and Financial Markets - Stablecoins are seen as a potential new infrastructure, with an analysis of the incentive mechanisms for various participants and their potential impact on financial markets and the international monetary system [15] - Issuing offshore RMB stablecoins is considered a priority for China in participating in the development of stablecoins, although the success of RMB internationalization ultimately depends on its legal and functional anchors [15]

Core Viewpoint - Artificial intelligence is driving a deep restructuring of global industrial chains, with China expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its talent pool and scenario advantages [1] Group 1: AI Development Impact - AI development is projected to contribute an average annual productivity increase of approximately 0.8% over the next decade, potentially adding 12.4 trillion RMB to China's GDP [2] - The gap in large model capabilities between top Chinese AI companies and their American counterparts is narrowing, leading to a consensus among foreign investors regarding the resurgence of Chinese AI, termed "China AI Rise" [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - In a rapidly changing market environment, an open investment attitude is essential, and industries should be examined from multiple perspectives to avoid subjective biases and herd mentality [2] - The phenomenon of innovative companies like DeepSeek is reshaping international capital's perception of Chinese tech assets, supported by policy benefits and a recovery in investor confidence, marking a critical window for Chinese AI enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC is showcasing its digital investment research platform, CICC Insight, at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, emphasizing its commitment to integrating technology into financial services and enhancing research capabilities through AI [3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - CICC, established in 1995, provides diversified financial services, including investment banking, asset management, and private equity, supported by a strong research and technology foundation [1]. Group 2: CICC Insight Platform - CICC Insight integrates the expertise of over 30 research teams and covers more than 1,800 stocks, offering research reports, data indicators, and financial models to enhance investment decision-making [5]. - The platform features a data indicator library with over 120,000 data points and covers more than 600 unique data sources, aiding investors in understanding industry trends and competitive landscapes [5]. - CICC Insight's AI model offers three core functionalities: data retrieval, AI search, and intelligent meeting minutes, enhancing the research team's capabilities and extending service offerings [5]. Group 3: Event Participation - CICC will participate in the "Technology Finance to Advance AI Development" forum at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, featuring discussions on AI's internationalization, industrialization, and capitalization trends [6][10]. - The forum will include keynote speeches and a roundtable discussion with industry leaders, focusing on the transformative impact of AI on various sectors [12][15].

Core Insights - The report from CICC Research provides a comprehensive overview of the Chinese economy, market, and asset prices as of Q3 2025, summarizing key macroeconomic indicators and market strategies [1][3]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The GDP growth rate in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from Q1, with nominal GDP growth at 3.9%, down 0.7 percentage points [6]. - Fixed asset investment growth in the first half of 2025 was 2.8%, lower than the 3.9% growth in the same period last year, indicating a slowdown in internal investment momentum [6]. - Export growth remained resilient despite increased tariffs, with a 7.2% year-on-year increase in exports in the first half of 2025 [6]. - Consumer price index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in the first half of 2025, indicating low inflationary pressures [6][19]. Market Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring domestic economic data, policy implementation, and overseas macroeconomic policies and geopolitical situations [37]. - A-shares are considered to have strong valuation resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index's dividend yield of approximately 3.5% being significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [38]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential that are less correlated with economic cycles, such as AI, defense, and innovative pharmaceuticals [38]. Sector Performance - In Q2 2025, the defense and military sector led A-share performance with a 16% increase, while the real estate sector faced significant pressure, with a decline of 3.6% [42]. - The report highlights that the overall market performance is influenced by external uncertainties, with a recommendation to pay attention to sectors that may benefit from capacity adjustments under price pressure [38][42]. Foreign Exchange and Investment Trends - The report notes a depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the Chinese yuan in Q2 2025, with the yuan showing a 14.4% increase against the dollar [52]. - The foreign capital inflow into A-shares has been significant, with a notable increase in the proportion of foreign holdings in key sectors such as consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and technology [76][78].

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the development history of leading international tobacco companies in the context of intensifying global competition in heated not burned (HNB) products, summarizing successful experiences and projecting future trends [1][5]. Group 1: International Tobacco HNB Development Review - Philip Morris International (PMI) launched IQOS ILUMA in 2021, utilizing electromagnetic induction technology, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.4% in revenue from 2018 to 2024, with a projected shipment volume of 139.7 billion sticks in 2024 [3]. - Japan Tobacco introduced Ploom X in 2021, employing four-way airflow heating technology, with a projected shipment volume of 10.9 billion sticks in 2024 [3]. - British American Tobacco (BAT) anticipates a shipment volume of 20.9 billion sticks for its Glo series in 2024, with the Glo Hilo high-end heating platform set to launch in Japan in June 2025 after trials in Serbia [3]. Group 2: Insights from Stock Price Review of International Tobacco Leaders - Regulatory clarity significantly impacts business expansion and stock performance, with U.S. FDA approval timelines and European flavor bans affecting market dynamics [3]. - The pathway for HNB promotion is characterized by strong single products, trial feedback, global expansion, and profit enhancement, with market expectations, revenue growth, and performance realization driving capital market performance [3]. - Strong technology-driven single products are crucial for HNB market penetration, with specific market trial feedback shaping expectations and driving valuation increases [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Philip Morris International - PMI's revenue has shown consistent growth, with a CAGR of 4.5% from 2016 to 2024, leading among international tobacco companies, while net profit has fluctuated due to product mix and exchange rate impacts [7]. - The revenue from HNB products has grown at a CAGR of 45% from 2016 to 2024, with its share of total revenue increasing from 2.7% in 2016 to 37.8% in 2024, and HNB gross margins surpassing traditional cigarettes for the first time in 2024 [7][10]. Group 4: Financial Performance of Japan Tobacco - Japan Tobacco's traditional cigarette sales have remained stable, with HNB products driving rapid growth since 2022, particularly in the Japanese market where HNB sales are projected to reach approximately 9 billion sticks in 2024 [20][22]. - The Ploom X product has significantly contributed to revenue growth, with a projected 24.2% increase in sales volume and a 21.1% increase in revenue in 2024 [22]. Group 5: Financial Performance of British American Tobacco - BAT's traditional cigarette revenue is under pressure, with a projected decline in revenue and volume from 2019 to 2024 [33]. - New tobacco products, including HNB and oral nicotine products, are expected to take over growth from the declining e-cigarette segment, with a CAGR of 22% from 2019 to 2024 for new tobacco products [35].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in major currency exchange rates, particularly the depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the euro, have drawn significant market attention. The recent rebound of the dollar index and the "catch-up" of the RMB against the dollar are noteworthy trends [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - Historical data indicates that predicting exchange rate movements is challenging due to numerous influencing factors, including unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral elements [1]. - A comparison of the IMF's assessments of the US dollar's real effective exchange rate (REER) over the past 20 years reveals a notable divergence from actual changes in the dollar's REER [1]. - The RMB's exchange rate has shown volatility, with a significant reversal in trends observed in late 2013, despite market consensus predicting a shift to the "5 era" for the RMB against the dollar [1]. Group 2: Theoretical Frameworks - To better assess exchange rates, it is essential to move beyond mainstream analytical frameworks and adopt a new perspective that incorporates both neoclassical and post-Keynesian views [1]. - Neoclassical economics emphasizes the current account as the primary determinant of exchange rates, while post-Keynesian economics focuses on capital flows as the fundamental force affecting exchange rates [1]. - The increasing significance of capital flows and the volatility of foreign exchange transactions suggest that post-Keynesian thinking aligns more closely with current realities [1]. Group 3: US Dollar Dynamics - The divergence in views between White House economic advisor Milan, who believes the dollar is overvalued, and Treasury Secretary Basent, who aims to maintain a strong dollar, highlights differing perspectives on the dollar's role in the economy [2]. - The US has maintained a relatively stable current account deficit, but uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies have diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets, contributing to a decline in the dollar's value [2]. - Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index has dropped by over 10%, influenced by unpredictable trade policies and rising concerns over fiscal deficits [2]. Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Pressure - Trump's recent tariff announcements, which include high tariffs on key industries, could push the overall effective tariff rate in the US above 20%, adding pressure to the economy and inflation [3]. - The trend of debt monetization in the US is becoming more apparent, with projected budget deficits remaining high at around 6.5%-7% in the coming years [3]. - Increasing signs of fiscal intervention in monetary policy, as indicated by recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve, suggest a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment [3]. Group 5: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has appreciated against the dollar by 1.7% since the beginning of the year, but has depreciated by 8.9% against the euro during the same period [4]. - A comprehensive index of the RMB against a basket of currencies shows a cumulative depreciation of 5.3% since the start of the year, indicating that the RMB's appreciation against the dollar is primarily driven by dollar-specific factors [4]. - The RMB's exchange rate remains crucial for exports, as fluctuations against a basket of currencies can partially offset the impacts of tariff changes [4]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The RMB's exchange rate has been largely "passive" thus far, but future movements will depend on factors such as US-China relations and domestic economic conditions [5]. - If China's economic growth stabilizes and market confidence improves, a potential appreciation of the RMB against the dollar may continue in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor and components industry is expected to experience growth momentum driven by the deepening penetration of generative AI technology in the second half of 2025, improved competitive landscape, and accelerated domestic substitution [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Global semiconductor market is projected to reach $700.9 billion and $760.7 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11% and 9% [3] - The integrated circuit sector will benefit from growth in logic circuits and memory, with growth rates of 13% and 9% respectively [3] - DRAM prices are expected to rise by 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025 due to supply tightness and seasonal demand [3] - NAND Flash prices are anticipated to increase by 5%-10% in Q3 2025, driven by demand from AI servers [3] Group 2: Innovation and AI Impact - AI is becoming the core engine of industry innovation, establishing a positive feedback loop of "computing power-model-application-data" [3] - Cloud computing power demand is experiencing high growth, with major overseas model vendors planning significant capital expenditures [3] - Domestic leaders like Minimax and Kimi are accelerating model iterations, enhancing the stability of the cloud AI chip supply chain [3] Group 3: Domestic Substitution - The trend of "China for China" is leading to a full-chain penetration of domestic substitution, particularly in cloud computing power chips and RF front-end modules [4] - Domestic manufacturers are gradually breaking through barriers with major clients amid supply chain restrictions [4] - The market share of leading domestic companies in semiconductor equipment and materials is increasing significantly [4] Group 4: Semiconductor Design and Manufacturing - AI-related applications remain the primary growth driver for the semiconductor design sector, with a positive cycle forming in domestic cloud computing power chip demand [7] - The utilization rate in the semiconductor manufacturing sector is expected to remain high, driven by strong demand in automotive-grade chips and AI-related products [7] - The semiconductor equipment orders in the second half of 2025 are expected to be primarily from the storage sector due to high utilization rates [7] Group 5: Storage Chips - The supply-demand tightness for both bulk and niche storage products is expected to continue, with price increases likely extending into Q3 2025 [22] - DRAM prices have already risen by 5%-10% in Q2 2025, with further increases anticipated [22] - The demand for NOR Flash is expected to grow due to the release of AI wearable devices [24] Group 6: CMOS Image Sensors (CIS) and RF Chips - The automotive application of CIS is expected to see significant growth, with a trend towards higher pixel counts [31] - The domestic RF chip market is at a critical point for substitution, particularly in key modules [35] Group 7: Power Devices and Semiconductor Equipment - The demand for high-voltage, high-current chips is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, driven by policy changes and product upgrades [40] - Major semiconductor equipment companies are experiencing revenue growth of 30%-40% year-on-year, with continued domestic substitution [47] Group 8: Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to reach $67.5 billion in 2024, with growth driven by increased demand from wafer manufacturing and packaging materials [48] Group 9: EDA Tools - The EDA design tools sector is expected to see revenue growth outpace profit growth, driven by low domestic market penetration [49]

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins have the potential to become a new type of financial infrastructure, bridging the gap between the crypto world and traditional finance, and their development should be strategically considered by China [2][3]. Group 1: What are Stablecoins? - Stablecoins are defined as "the most decentralized among centralized assets and the most centralized among decentralized assets," highlighting their dual nature of being rooted in blockchain technology while also requiring regulatory oversight [3][7]. - They are linked to fiat currencies, which means they must comply with traditional financial regulations, thus acting as a bridge between the crypto and real worlds [3][8]. - The potential applications of stablecoins include cross-border payments, asset preservation, and integration into decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems [3][22]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - Stablecoins can enhance payment efficiency, offering low-cost and fast transactions, particularly beneficial for cross-border payments [38]. - They can improve financial inclusivity, especially in high-inflation economies, by providing a means for asset preservation [41][42]. - However, stablecoins may pose risks to monetary stability and sovereignty in countries with weak financial systems, potentially undermining local currencies and monetary policies [45][46]. Group 3: Influence on International Monetary System - Stablecoins depend on the credit of fiat currencies, primarily the US dollar, and their rise could reshape global capital flows and the international monetary system [54][56]. - They may create new demand in regions with weak financial infrastructure, acting as a substitute for traditional banking systems [55]. - The emergence of stablecoins could challenge the dominance of the US dollar, as they provide alternative payment channels and may facilitate the rise of non-US currencies [56]. Group 4: China's Participation in Stablecoin Development - China should consider issuing offshore RMB stablecoins as a priority to participate in the development of stablecoins, leveraging its position as a major global trade player [5][57]. - The development of stablecoins could enhance China's financial resilience and flexibility in international trade, providing alternatives to traditional payment methods [57]. - However, the potential for stablecoins to bypass capital controls poses significant regulatory challenges for China [4][57].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant trade agreement between the United States and Japan, highlighting Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and the implications of this deal for both countries [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Details - Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., with 90% of the profits accruing to the U.S. [2][3] - The definition of this investment remains unclear, whether it includes only direct investments or also securities investments [4][11]. - If the investment is solely direct, it may take approximately 7 years to complete, while if it includes securities, it could take around 4 years [4][11]. Group 2: Trade Openings - Japan will open its market to imports of cars, trucks, rice, and other agricultural products from the U.S. [2][14]. - The impact on the Japanese automotive market is limited, as U.S. brands have struggled to gain market share due to localization issues rather than tariffs [14][15]. - The agreement specifies that Japan will maintain its minimum access for rice imports while increasing the proportion of U.S. rice within that quota [15][16]. Group 3: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. will reduce the previously planned 25% tariff on Japanese goods to 15% [2][17]. - The tariff on Japanese automobiles will decrease from 27.5% to 15%, with no quantity restrictions, benefiting Japanese automakers significantly [22][25]. - The reduction in tariffs is seen as a positive development for Japan, although the overall economic impact is relatively modest given Japan's trade dynamics with the U.S. [17][22]. Group 4: Political Context - The article notes potential political changes in Japan, with speculation about the resignation of Prime Minister Ishiba and its implications for future economic policies [27][28]. - The new leadership may lean towards marginal fiscal and monetary easing, which could influence Japan's capital markets [27][28].

1）主动公募基金港股持仓占比从去年底的25.8%提升至32.5%，当前此类基金总规模约1.55万亿港元，年初至今港股配置提升规模约1,000-1,200亿港元。 不过考虑到其中存在指数价格因素后（平均涨幅15%左右），年内此类基金港股净增量约850-1,050亿港元 ， 贡献年初以来南向约8,000亿港元流入的10- 15%左右； 2）公募整体港股持仓占比从去年底的30.5%提升至目前39.8%左右，此类基金总规模约2.62万亿港元，年初至今港股配置提升规模约2,500-3,000亿港元， 同样考虑价格因素，年初至今港股净增量约2,200-2,800亿港元。排除主动公募约900亿港元， 此类（ETF为主）基金港股净增量约1,500-2,000亿港元，贡 献南向的25-30%； 3) 余下约50%的部分相对难以拆解，其中保险部分更多是稳步买入分红尤其是银行， 我们也看到年初以来港股银行板块AH溢价已经低于理论上125% 的"隐形底"（贡献约25-35%）；而另外15-20%的部分则属于直接开通港股通交易的个人投资者与私募基金等。 结合公募基金最新披露的二季报，我们更 新公募基金的港股持仓和配置变化，以此提供更多 ...