风险提示：资本市场大幅波动；政策落地不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 Text 正文 保险：回归负债端，延续估值修复 寿险：关注负债端从量变走向质变带来的价值修复 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 保险行业：回归负债端，延续估值修复。 1）寿险：关注负债端从量变走向质变带来的价值修复。2023年至今寿险的估值随负债及资产端预期的修复持续 改善，而3Q24以来资产端预期修复为股价上行的主要推动。伴随资产端基数走高、后续弹性减弱，负债端或将有更为积极的趋势展现，叠加分红险转型 持续推进及鼓励健康险发展等政策落地，我们预计2026年行业估值修复的逻辑将开始转向负债端主导。2）财险：2020年以来多轮综改推动下，头部公司 车险实现份额提升且盈利能力稳步改善；非车市场虽面临从车险外溢的竞争及自然灾害的扰动，但凭借车险盈利基本盘及长期经营能力的夯实，头部公司 非车业务未对整体承保盈利带来过大扰动。 资本市场行业：基本面改善初启幕，高质量发展下成长空间可期。 2025至今，证券业受益于资本市场活跃、权益投资向好及境外需求高增，全年业绩增 速或将表现优异，但业务费率下行、固收承压、境内一级发行受限等仍在短期拖累业绩释放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing financing pressure on U.S. financial institutions since October, leading to tighter dollar liquidity and a phase of dollar appreciation. The Federal Reserve plans to end its quantitative tightening (QT) process by December 1, 2025, which includes stopping the reduction of Treasury securities while continuing to reduce MBS [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to stop shrinking its balance sheet aims to support dollar liquidity and alleviate financing pressures in the short-term financing market, which relies heavily on Treasury securities as collateral [2][21]. - The Fed's actions indicate a blurring of the lines between monetary and fiscal policy, with expectations of a potential restart of balance sheet expansion as early as Q1 next year [3][33]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Since June 2022, the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.3 trillion, with Treasury and MBS reductions of about $1.6 trillion and $0.6 trillion, respectively [5][21]. - The liquidity in the U.S. dollar market has reached a low point since the pandemic, with narrow liquidity measures falling below the "ample liquidity" threshold [5][12]. Group 3: Financing Market Pressures - The financing market has experienced significant pressure, with borrowing through the discount window increasing since July, particularly following regional bank crises in October [10][13]. - The repo market has seen rising financing demands, with the secured overnight financing market's borrowing amount increasing from $1 trillion at the end of 2022 to $3 trillion, primarily driven by unregulated non-bank institutions [26][27]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy Implications - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan may increase the deficit by approximately $400 billion, with the annual deficit rate expected to widen to 6.4% [37]. - If the government ends its shutdown, nearly $1 trillion in funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA) could be injected into the market, enhancing liquidity [37]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The article suggests that under a dual expansion of fiscal and monetary policy, the nominal economic cycle in the U.S. is likely to restart, benefiting both U.S. and Chinese stock markets, as well as commodities like gold and copper [38]. - The focus for investment should be on themes of security and resilience amid changing geopolitical landscapes, emphasizing productivity enhancement and resource self-sufficiency [38].

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is expected to maintain stable performance through 2026, with revenue and profit growth remaining steady due to narrowing net interest margin pressure and slowing credit growth driven by weak demand and insufficient risk compensation [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Revenue and profit for listed banks are projected to remain stable year-on-year, primarily due to a further narrowing of net interest margin, which is expected to decrease by 12 basis points in 2025 and remain within 10 basis points in 2026 [3]. - As of September, the year-on-year growth rate of credit balance is 6.6%, while the social financing balance growth rate is 8.7%, both of which are influenced by fiscal policy [3]. - Fee income growth is expected to stabilize and recover after several years of fee reductions and high base pressure [3]. - Small and micro enterprises, along with retail customer exposures, continue to be the main sources of non-performing loans, while corporate business exposures show stable or improving trends in net non-performing loan generation rates [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The banking sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, driven by macroeconomic changes, industrial structure adjustments, technological applications, and regulatory cycles [6]. - Banks are optimizing their operational strategies to focus on high-quality development, utilizing technology and big data to enhance strategic execution efficiency [6]. - There is a shift in focus towards acquiring and managing target customer groups, with operational results observable through indicators such as funding costs and funding structure [6]. Group 3: Investment Perspective - The banking sector has entered a phase of high-quality development, with only a few listed banks achieving double-digit growth, making high-dividend investments a primary strategy [3][6]. - The financial indicators related to high dividends require a focus on high-quality development to sustain performance [3].

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market in 2025 has been significantly influenced by tariff expectations and fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, with a notable decline in the dollar index during the second quarter due to unexpected tariff announcements and deteriorating employment data [2][3][4]. Group 1: 2025 Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, the dollar index fell from its high as Trump's tariff policies progressed slower than expected, reversing the "Trump trade" that had boosted the dollar [2][4]. - The second quarter saw a significant drop in the dollar index, primarily due to the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" that exceeded market expectations and rising trade tensions between the US and China, leading to concerns about the stability of the US economy and dollar assets [2][4]. - By the third quarter, the dollar's performance stabilized as the US reached tariff agreements with major trading partners, alleviating market concerns about economic stability, and the dollar entered a consolidation phase [2][4]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - For 2026, narrowing interest rate differentials and changes in risk appetite are expected to be the main themes in currency trading, with the Fed's potential for rate cuts being greater than that of other non-US central banks [3][10]. - The US labor market is anticipated to slow down, prompting the Fed to consider more accommodative monetary policies, especially with a potential change in leadership at the Fed [3][11]. - The dollar's decline is expected to be limited due to the absence of crowded long positions and the relative economic strength of the US compared to Europe and Japan [3][13]. Group 3: Renminbi (RMB) Dynamics - The core variables influencing the RMB exchange rate in 2026 will be the dollar's performance and changes in US-China trade relations, with a stable exchange rate policy likely impacting the RMB's trajectory [4][16]. - The RMB appreciated approximately 2.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, initially facing depreciation pressure due to tariffs but later benefiting from the dollar's decline and improved trade negotiations [14][15]. - The expectation is that the RMB will continue to appreciate moderately in 2026, supported by the weakening dollar and converging interest rates between China and the US [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Since 2021, the bond market has entered a prolonged bull market, with expectations that the yield curve may continue to steepen by 2026 due to the divergence between the new economy, represented by AI, and the traditional economy [2][4][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Outlook - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased from 3.2% at the beginning of 2021 to approximately 1.7% currently, driven by a slowdown in financing demand due to declining real estate and demographic changes [5][6]. - The overall bond yield is expected to remain on a downward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fall to between 1.2% and 1.5% by 2026 [10][12]. - The credit bond market may experience marginal weakening in demand, but support for short- to medium-term credit bonds remains strong, with credit spreads likely to stay at historically low levels [12][20]. Group 2: Economic Divergence - The global economy is witnessing a divergence between the strong new economy and the weakening traditional economy, influenced by various frictional factors such as fiscal constraints and geopolitical tensions [6][10]. - In the U.S., the persistent "three highs" issue (high inflation, high interest rates, and high wages) is expected to pressure traditional industries, leading to a slowdown in investment and hiring [6][9]. - The Chinese economy is also experiencing a similar divergence, with the new economy showing robust growth while traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure face challenges [6][10]. Group 3: Credit Bond Dynamics - The demand for credit bonds may face fluctuations due to a slowdown in wealth management scale growth, but short-term credit bonds are expected to maintain support [13][20]. - The net increase in non-financial credit bonds is projected to remain concentrated in central state-owned enterprises, with an estimated net increase of around 1.8 trillion to 2 trillion yuan for the year [15][16]. - The credit risk for city investment bonds and state-owned enterprise bonds is expected to remain low, although uncertainties may arise post-2027 when the platform exit policy is fully implemented [20]. Group 4: Market Trends and Strategies - The volatility of convertible bonds in 2026 is anticipated to be lower than in 2024-2025, with a gradual recovery in the primary market expected [21][23]. - The issuance of public REITs is likely to accelerate under the guidance of regulatory policies, with potential catalysts including declining long-term interest rates and improvements in market fundamentals [29][30]. - The "productization" of fixed income markets is expected to gain momentum in 2026, highlighting the importance of constant ETF development [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reshaping of global trade patterns due to the 2025 U.S. tariff policy, leading to increased asset volatility and economic uncertainty, while also highlighting opportunities in the commodity market amidst geopolitical tensions and industry innovations [2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Challenges - Geopolitical tensions and resource protectionism are expected to further challenge the already fragile supply elasticity in energy and metal markets [4]. - The decline in upstream investment in global energy and metals has persisted for nearly a decade, with capital expenditures decreasing compared to 2024 levels, which may suppress investment willingness among upstream companies [5]. - The copper market is experiencing supply constraints due to insufficient upstream investment, while the oil market is facing a potential turning point in non-OPEC production due to declining investment and rising costs [5][10]. Group 2: Strategic Security and Demand Dynamics - The focus on strategic security is increasing, with energy transition and reserve construction becoming essential trends, potentially providing resilience for strategic commodity resources [12]. - The demand for green transition metals and biofuels is expected to grow, driven by policies in countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, the U.S., and Brazil [13]. - Non-OECD countries are showing increased demand for oil reserves and gold purchases, reflecting a heightened concern for resource security amid rising geopolitical uncertainties [16]. Group 3: Emerging Demand and Industrialization - Emerging demand is gaining momentum, particularly from AI investments and the industrialization of emerging economies, which may drive the next supercycle in commodities [17]. - The ongoing restructuring of trade patterns and industrial divisions is expected to support the industrialization processes in emerging economies, with India and Belt and Road countries likely to be key drivers of future demand [19]. - The resilience in exports of intermediate goods, such as steel from China, indicates a marginal uplift in commodity demand [19]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook for 2026 - Despite high macroeconomic uncertainties, the supply disruptions and localized demand changes may lead to a marginal improvement in the oversupply situation in the commodity market by 2026 [24]. - Non-ferrous and precious metals are anticipated to continue their upward trend, with copper facing both long-term capital expenditure constraints and short-term supply disruptions [24]. - Oil and agricultural products are expected to rebound due to cost support and supply risks, while black metals may face continued pressure from domestic demand slowdowns [25].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to be in the early stage of "stabilization" with a "narrowing decline" in transaction volume and prices, transitioning through a three-step process: transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3][8][9]. Market Performance - The overall performance of the real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline in total transaction volume for both new and second-hand homes, with estimates showing a decline of 6.8% compared to 8.0% in 2024 [3][7]. - The cumulative price decline for second-hand homes remains consistent, while the average price decline for new homes is influenced by structural factors related to "good properties" [3][7]. Future Projections - In a neutral scenario for 2026, total housing transaction volume is projected to decline by 5.0%, with new homes and second-hand homes expected to decrease by 6.9% and 2.6% respectively [4][10]. - The real estate investment decline is anticipated to stabilize at -14.9% in 2026, with a focus on land acquisition and construction as leading indicators [5][10]. Policy and Structural Adjustments - The pace of policy implementation in 2025 is expected to be slow, with challenges in the effective execution of supply-demand adjustment policies, such as land storage and urban village renovations [9][10]. - The need for proactive risk prevention measures is emphasized, particularly regarding credit risks for real estate companies and pressures from mortgage defaults [9][10]. Investment Indicators - The willingness of real estate companies to acquire land and start new projects is likely to remain under pressure, with new construction area expected to decline by 16.1% in a neutral scenario for 2026 [5][12]. - The construction area and physical completion area are projected to decrease by 9.3% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting a slow construction pace and reduced project intensity [5][12].

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of three standout applications in the content platform sector: Xiaohongshu, Hongguo Short Drama, and Qishui Music, which have shown remarkable growth despite a general slowdown in the internet market [2][7]. Group 1: Growth Drivers - Xiaohongshu's rise is attributed to its unique positioning as a "useful" platform, filling a gap in the Chinese market for practical information sharing, particularly among young, urban female users [5][19]. - The commonality behind the rise of the "Tomato Series" applications (including Tomato Novel, Hongguo Short Drama, and Qishui Music) lies in their integration of ByteDance's strengths in personalized recommendation and data-driven operations, creating a demand-driven supply cycle [5][26]. - The article argues that the content consumption landscape is evolving, with a shift from traditional supply-driven models to those that prioritize user demand, allowing for greater market opportunities [5][26]. Group 2: Market Positioning - Xiaohongshu differentiates itself by focusing on text-based content, which aligns with user preferences for "useful" information, contrasting with the video-centric trends seen in platforms like Douyin [15][19]. - The article discusses the potential for free music platforms like Qishui Music to become significant players in the copyright space by leveraging demand-driven strategies rather than traditional supply-driven approaches [6][38]. - The positioning of Xiaohongshu as a community-driven platform allows it to build trust among users through authentic content from everyday users rather than relying solely on influencers [20][44]. Group 3: Content Consumption Trends - The article notes that the rise of short dramas and short videos reflects a broader trend in content consumption, where users prefer formats that deliver high engagement and emotional stimulation [31][34]. - The production model for short dramas has shifted towards a more decentralized and market-responsive approach, allowing for quicker adaptation to user preferences and lower production costs [32][34]. - The article emphasizes that the demand for story-driven content is a fundamental human need, which explains the popularity of short dramas and videos that prioritize narrative engagement [31][34]. Group 4: Commercialization Strategies - Xiaohongshu's brand "grass planting" strategy is rooted in psychological principles that enhance user trust and engagement, making it a unique player in the e-commerce space [46][47]. - The transition of Xiaohongshu to a "buyer’s e-commerce" model reflects its adaptation to community dynamics, where creators act as curators of shopping information, enhancing user experience [47]. - Hongguo Short Drama's success is attributed to its innovative free + advertising revenue model, which has allowed it to capture significant market share in the short drama space [49][35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in global asset prices in 2025, attributing these changes to two long-term trends: the reconstruction of monetary order leading to a depreciation of the US dollar, and the AI technology revolution driving stock market growth. It suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold and technology stocks while underweighting dollar assets and commodities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Factors Changing Market Trends - Four main factors that could alter market trends are identified: high valuations, tightening policies, geopolitical shocks, and growth shifts. High valuations alone are not expected to trigger market adjustments without other driving factors [5][6][12]. - The article notes that Chinese stocks are currently at median valuation levels, suggesting potential for further upside if supported by fundamentals. In contrast, gold and US stocks are viewed as relatively expensive but still have strong long-term bullish narratives [6][12]. - Policy tightening is highlighted as a critical factor, with historical evidence showing that bull markets in stocks and gold often end during periods of tightening. The US inflation cycle is expected to peak around mid-2026, which could impact market dynamics [12][13]. - Geopolitical tensions are seen as beneficial for gold but detrimental to stocks, with historical data indicating that geopolitical events typically have short-lived impacts on asset prices [12][15]. - The article discusses the potential for economic growth shifts, emphasizing that if both the US and China experience stronger growth, it could favor stocks while challenging gold prices [12][16]. Asset Allocation Recommendations for 2026 H1 - Chinese Stocks: Maintain an overweight position, with a balanced style favoring technology growth stocks and cyclical value sectors as economic expectations improve [18]. - US Stocks: Maintain a neutral position, benefiting from macro liquidity and technology trends, while favoring Chinese stocks due to expected dollar depreciation [19]. - Chinese Bonds: Downgrade from neutral to underweight, as the bond market may face pressure from economic shifts and rising risk appetite [19]. - US Bonds: Maintain a neutral stance, with potential for yields to drop below 4%, but caution is advised due to rising inflation and fiscal expansion risks [19]. - Commodities: Upgrade from underweight to neutral, as they may benefit from improved economic conditions and serve as a hedge against geopolitical risks [19]. - Gold: Maintain an overweight position, supported by strong fundamentals such as monetary order reconstruction and rising geopolitical risks, with potential for prices to reach $5,000 per ounce [20].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of oscillation and upward trend, with a shift towards dividend stocks and sectors with strong price increase certainty, such as non-ferrous metals, supported by recent US-China trade negotiations [2] Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to a continued rise in gold and industrial metal prices, with coal prices rebounding due to increased demand for the heating season and production cuts. In October, prices for thermal coal, coking coal, coking, and iron ore rose by 10%, 14%, 10%, and 3% respectively [3][10] - Coal production has seen a year-on-year decline of 3.2% in September, maintaining negative growth for three consecutive months, while coal inventory remains historically high at 710 million tons [10] 2) Industrial Products - The energy transition is supporting demand for electrical equipment, with steady growth in the photovoltaic industry. In September, excavator domestic sales grew by 22% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 25% [4] - The price increase pace in the photovoltaic supply chain has slowed, with polysilicon and solar cell prices decreasing by 0.6% and 3% month-on-month [4] 3) Consumer Goods - Domestic demand for home appliances continues to slow, with September sales for washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners down by 16%, 26%, and 21% year-on-year respectively. The liquor industry is in a supply clearing phase, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai down by 6% year-on-year [5] - The food sector shows mixed performance, with prices for pork, chicken, and eggs declining, while vegetable prices have risen [5] 4) Technology - The AI industry chain is experiencing high prosperity, with strong overseas demand for AI computing driving sales of Chinese communication equipment. The net profit growth rates for software and services, computer equipment, communication equipment, and semiconductors reached 161%, 45%, 25%, and 33% respectively [6] - The gaming sector remains robust, with 166 game licenses issued in October, maintaining a high level [6] 5) Financials - The banking sector's high dividend attributes are attracting medium to long-term capital allocation, with insurance premiums growing by 9% year-on-year in September. The average daily trading volume of A-shares has slightly decreased to 2.2 trillion yuan [6] - The stock market sentiment remains high, with a significant increase in margin trading balances reaching a historical high of approximately 2.5 trillion yuan [6] 6) Real Estate - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with October sales area in 30 major cities down by 27% year-on-year. The price index for new and second-hand residential properties has decreased by 2.7% and 5.2% respectively [7] - The industry is under pressure, with a focus on policy support and demand improvement [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as AI computing, communication equipment, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry prosperity occurs [7] - Non-ferrous metals are likely to benefit from the global monetary order reconstruction, while export growth remains strong, enhancing profit margins for companies in engineering machinery, electrical equipment, and white goods [7]