中金研究 美联储在1月会议上维持利率不变，符合市场预期。理事沃勒投下反对票，或与其希望被提名为下一任美联储主席有关。货币政策声明称"失业率已趋 于稳定"，鲍威尔表示货币政策"处于合适位置"，显示短期内再次降息的门槛提高。除此之外，鲍威尔并未提供太多指引，他也回避了其它与利率制定 不相干的问题。我们认为美联储在2026年仍有望降息两次，但首次降息或推迟至第二季度。美国经济的核心问题并非增长不足，而在于收入分配不平 衡和普通家庭的可负担压力。这类结构性问题并非单靠货币就能解决，反而可能推动政府采取更多非市场化的干预性政策，来回应选民的关切。 美联储按兵不动，理事沃勒主张降息。 美联储FOMC会议维持利率不变，货币政策声明称"就业增长低迷，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀仍处于 较高水平"[1]。过去一年中，劳动力市场已明显降温，但失业率在12月从前一个月的4.5%回落至4.4%，一定程度上缓解了联储对就业进一步恶化的担忧。 与此同时，通胀虽有放缓迹象，但仍明显高于美联储2%的目标。在这一背景下，决策者选择暂时按兵不动。 不过，本次决议并非一致通过。两名官员——美联储理事米兰和沃勒——投下反对票，主张降息25个基 ...

中金研究 2026年1月23-26日期间，美日汇率由159附近下行至154附近，日元大幅升值约3%，投资者关心日本与美国是否联合干预了汇率，日元今后能否持续升 值，我们在本篇报告中详细分析。2022年以来我们开启了"日本外汇干预"系列报告，目前已发布《 日本外汇干预：以时间换空间，但效果或有限 》、 《 日本外汇干预#2:"隐形"外汇干预 》、《 日本外汇干预#3：外汇干预的"预习" 》、《 日本外汇干预#4: 24年4月的干预？ 》，《 日本外汇干预#5： 160或无外汇干预 》，本篇为第六篇报告。 点击小程序查看报告原文 结论：我们认为日元短期升值或来自于日本与美国的"汇率检查"的影响，而非"外汇干预"。今后若日元继续贬值，我们认为日本当局实施外汇干预的可能 性较大。关于未来日元汇率的方向，我们认为仅凭日本与美国当局的"汇率检查"或难以带来日元趋势性升值。 什么是汇率检查？是外汇干预的前奏 "汇率检查"（Rate Check）是指中央银行等在进行外汇干预的准备阶段，向银行等市场参与者询问交易价格水平的行为。具体而言，中央银行会向市场参 与者发出与外汇干预操作类似的订单请求，在对方报出卖出价或买入价之后，往 ...

Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 资产配置的核心是通过跨资产类别的组合设计，对风险与收益进行系统化权衡。本文从目标到实现路径介绍了资产配置的理论框架，并梳理了海内外的主 流资产配置模型，并回测了在中国和全球资产配置场景下的应用效果。 回测结果显示，增强收益推荐关注Black-Litterman与均值方差模型，绝对收益风 险平衡角度推荐风险平价与波动率目标制模型。 资产配置理论框架：设立资配目标、确定资产中枢、明确投资约束、动态调整权重 我们从 2015 年- 2025年、月度换仓的量化实测效果 来比较各个模型在中国资产和全球资产配置上的有效性。由于部分模型依赖的假设与超参数较多，我 们选择了相对主观超参数较少、能量化回测的收益驱动和风险驱动模型进行测试，包括共9个策略：均值方差、约束优化、Black-Litterman、LSTM结合 Black-Litterman、动量-波动率协同、风险平价、风险预算、波动率目标、CVaR优化。 我们分别测试了两种投资场景：1）国内投资者更关注的可投资产：A股、港股、中国债券、黄金、大宗商品；2）更广泛的全球资产范围：美国权益、欧 洲权益、中国权益、日本权益、中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing efforts by the Trump administration to lower drug prices in the U.S., highlighting the strong pricing power of pharmaceutical companies and the complexities of the healthcare payment system, which includes private insurance and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) [2][35]. Summary by Sections U.S. Healthcare System Overview - The U.S. healthcare system is characterized by high medical service costs and low insurance coverage rates compared to other developed countries, with total healthcare spending reaching approximately $4.9 trillion in 2023, accounting for 17.6% of GDP [4][5]. - From 1960 to 2023, per capita national health expenditure in the U.S. increased from $146 to $14,570, a 99-fold increase with a compound annual growth rate of 7.6% [4]. Insurance Coverage and Efficiency - The U.S. insurance coverage rate is relatively low among developed nations, with 2023 coverage at 92.4%, lower than most OECD countries [9]. - The efficiency of healthcare services is also a concern, with the U.S. showing only an 8.8% decrease in all-cause mortality from 1999 to 2022, compared to a 25.9% decrease in the UK during the same period [7]. Medicare and Medicaid - Medicare, the primary public insurance program, covers approximately 65 million elderly and disabled individuals, while Medicaid covers about 91.7 million low-income individuals, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.0% in spending from 2013 to 2023 [18][19]. - Private insurance dominates the U.S. healthcare system, covering about 207 million people, or 62% of the population, with employer-sponsored plans being the most common [19]. PBM Role and Pricing Mechanisms - Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) play a crucial role in the drug supply chain, managing drug formularies and negotiating prices, but their profit mechanisms, including rebate retention and price differentials, contribute to high drug prices [26][28]. - The consolidation of PBMs has raised concerns about their influence on drug pricing and transparency, prompting regulatory scrutiny at both state and federal levels [30]. Drug Pricing Reforms - The Trump administration has initiated several measures to reduce drug prices, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which allows for direct price negotiations for Medicare-covered drugs [33][35]. - The administration's efforts include setting price caps on insulin and negotiating discounts with pharmaceutical companies, with significant reductions observed in negotiated drug prices [33][39]. Pharmaceutical Pricing Trends - According to ICER, the median list price of new drugs is projected to increase by 24% and the net price by 51% from 2022 to 2024, indicating the continued strong pricing power of pharmaceutical companies [2][40]. - The article concludes that the interplay of the healthcare payment system, PBM profit mechanisms, and pharmaceutical pricing power complicates the effectiveness of drug price reform initiatives [39][40].

Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：中金公司研究部 净增资金多，也就是进入股市的多、退出股市的少，本质上是居民的股市投资意愿问题，我们在后文第三部分会进行分析。 市场讨论的命题主要是新增 资金，是一个局部变量，并不是"净增资金"。那么一个局部变量什么时候会对全局产生重大影响呢？当它的变化足够大的时候。也就是说，如果进入资金 有一个很大的增加或减少，大概率会引起股市价格的变化，背后隐含的一个假设是，进入资金的变化大概率超过了退出资金的变化。 要重视新增资金体量的增速，新增资金体量的增速与股市价格调整的关系更密切。 图表2、图表3是我们测算的两个结果，具体的测算细节我们将在后文 展示。图表2中的测算显示，2015-2025年，居民年度新增配置股市资金大致在2.7万亿-5.4万亿元之间波动，但新增资金绝对规模与当年股市涨跌幅的相关 性并不强，如2016年新增配置股市资金达4.9万亿元，在我们测算的年度中居第四，但当年万得全A下跌12.9%；2019年居民新增配置股市资金4.2万亿元、 并不算高，但当年全A涨幅高达33.0%。与此相比，图表3中的测算显示，每年新增资金同比增速则与股市涨跌有较好的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the changing landscape of economic policy goals under the influence of geopolitical factors, where resource allocation is increasingly influenced by geopolitical considerations rather than purely economic development [3][4] - The article discusses the potential long-term economic impacts of prioritizing geopolitical goals over optimal resource allocation, suggesting that even a small decrease in resource allocation efficiency can have significant negative effects on a country's economic strength [5][6] - It highlights the historical context of resource misallocation due to geopolitical considerations, using examples from China's past to illustrate the consequences of such policies [5][6] Group 2 - The article analyzes the current tariff wars, particularly focusing on the U.S. approach to tariffs, which includes both universal tariffs and differentiated tariffs based on political and economic interests [7][8] - It argues that the imposition of a universal 15% tariff by the U.S. could be seen as a monetary policy tool aimed at addressing trade imbalances, but warns that it may lead to resource misallocation and retaliatory measures from other countries [8][10] - The discussion includes the limitations of relying on tariffs for fiscal balance, suggesting that such an approach reflects an outdated economic policy framework [10] Group 3 - The article addresses the challenges facing multilateral rules in the context of international trade, emphasizing the need for a rules-based international order and the importance of the WTO in maintaining these principles [11][12] - It points out the stagnation of the WTO's dispute resolution mechanism and the limited progress in new rule negotiations, particularly under the pressures of recent geopolitical tensions [11][12] - The article suggests that reforms to the rules governing origin certification could help mitigate the misuse of tariffs and promote a more equitable multilateral trading system [13][14] Group 4 - The article outlines the broader implications of geopolitical economics, noting that the current global economic environment is characterized by increased supply constraints and a shift towards fiscal expansion, which elevates the importance of tangible assets [17] - It highlights China's unique advantages in strategic sectors such as green industries and artificial intelligence, suggesting that these could play a crucial role in the global economic restructuring driven by geopolitical factors [17] - The book aims to provide a comprehensive framework for understanding the trends in geopolitical economic competition, offering policy recommendations for various stakeholders [17]

中金研究 进入2026年，市场聚焦成长风格，主题性投资机会涌现，公用事业板块在风格切换和基本面弱势下市场关注度走弱，延续2H25趋势。但我们认为长线 资金仍有高息配置需求，同时区域个股存在交易性机会。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 主线1：赛道盈利、现金流逐步释放，格局稳中向好。1） 垃圾发电 行业运营转型卓有成效，企业聚焦存量资产提质增效，通过向优对标核心运营数据， 推动基本面和行业格局稳中向好。此外，资本开支下滑、应收改善趋势下，行业自由现金流改善，带动分红能力和意愿提升。同时，企业积极探索绿电直 连等新场景匹配稳定用电需求，并谨慎寻求出海机会，拓展增长空间。 2） 核电 ：华南电价风险释放较为充分，我们预计区域内核电资产盈利有望企 稳。进入"十五五"，核电进入密集投产期，每年稳定贡献盈利增量。 主线2：仍有高股息配置需求，关注强支付能力的火电、香港公用事业。 海外降息及国内低利率环境持续，长线资金仍有高股息投资需求，比起以往市场 偏好的水电板块，我们认为资本开支放缓、现金流充沛的火电、垃圾发电具备提升派息空间，有望成为新的高分红备选标的。此外，香港公用事业利润可 预期性强，历史分红确定 ...

Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 2025年"固收+"基金规模同比增长50%以上，其中，二级债基贡献了主要的规模增量。二级债基作为机构占比中枢长期维持70%的产品品类，其规模上涨 背后大概率是由于机构资金的助推。而 增量资金的涌入其实也改变着"固收+"基金的产品结构走向。 在权益市场迎来结构性行情时（尤其是2025Q3以 来），高风偏机构资金增配二级债基或主要作为波段或配置工具使用。基于这一逻辑，我们的确观察到，在股票端有相对明显风格/板块押注的"赛道型固 收+"基金，在2025年的规模增长较为突出，且规模增速明显高于股票端选择板块均衡配置的"固收+"基金。 正如我们此前在已外发研究报告《 "固收+"基金2026年展望：多资产大时代的增长法则与逻辑主线 》中所强调的，展望2026年，"固收+"基金发展的大时 代背景依然清晰，不过，我们判断， 2026年的增量资金结 构可 能会有一定改变。 "固收+"基金的需求方，一方面是机构端资金（包括险资/年金/养老金等 高风偏资金+银行理财等相对低风偏资金），另一方面是零售端资金（主要来源为银行渠道与互联网渠道的个人投资者）。展望2026年，若权益市场结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing concentration of public fund holdings in specific sectors, particularly technology and advanced manufacturing, driven by a consensus on macroeconomic conditions and industry trends [2][4][6]. Group 1: Measurement of Fund Concentration - Public fund concentration is typically assessed through metrics such as the proportion of top holdings (top 10, 50, 100) relative to the fund's net value, indicating a high concentration in certain stocks [1]. - Industry allocation or overweight ratios are also used; a concentration exceeding 30% in a single industry or deviating from historical averages by more than 10% signals increased concentration [1]. - Fund inflows and trading behaviors, such as new funds heavily investing in the same stocks, provide additional insights into concentration trends [1]. Group 2: Reasons for Concentration - The convergence of macroeconomic and industry trend assessments among institutional investors leads to increased fund concentration [2]. - A positive feedback mechanism exists where concentrated holdings attract more capital, enhancing fund size and potentially driving asset prices higher, reinforcing market narratives [2]. Group 3: Global Perspective - Institutional concentration in holdings is common globally, with examples from the U.S. market where significant funds are allocated to major tech stocks, reflecting a similar trend [3]. - The S&P 500's top 10 stocks account for approximately 40% of the index, marking the highest concentration since 2000 [3]. Group 4: Characteristics of Current Fund Concentration - Recent fund concentration trends show a strong focus on technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, with historical patterns indicating that concentration often correlates with industry profitability expectations [4][6]. - The current concentration is characterized by a significant increase in holdings in the semiconductor sector and a notable rise in the electronic industry from 12% in Q4 2023 to 26% in Q3 2025 [6][7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The outlook for fund concentration remains contingent on corporate fundamentals, with ongoing trends in artificial intelligence and domestic self-sufficiency expected to drive long-term investment strategies [7]. - Market conditions, including liquidity, external interest rates, and institutional investment patterns, will influence future fund allocation and concentration [7][8].

点击小程序查看报告原文 公募基金四季度仓位变动：股票仓位有所下降；A股仓位上升，港股继续下降 2025年四季度，A股整体窄幅震荡。11月中上旬，受中美关系阶段性缓和与"十五五"政策预期带动，上证指数一度刷新年内高点；其后在美联储降息节奏 反复、市场对AI估值泡沫担忧升温等因素扰动下，风险偏好有所回落；至12月中旬跨年行情启动，市场再度走强。总体来看，四季度上证指数上涨 2.2%；前期表现强势的成长风格回调，科创50下跌10.1%，跌幅靠前，创业板指收跌1.1%；偏大盘的上证50上涨1.4%而沪深300微跌0.2%；偏中小盘的中 证1000和中证2000分别上涨0.3%和3.6%；红利风格有所表现，中证红利指数上涨0.8%。在此背景下，主动偏股型公募基金单季度收益率中位数为-1.5%， 较上季度显著下降，单季收益为年内最低。 公募基金资产规模继续扩张，权益资产占比下降，债券资产占比回升。 公募基金整体资产规模连续三个季度扩张，四季度资产总值由上季度的38.1万亿元 升至39.5万亿元。其中，股票资产规模小幅上升至9万亿元以上，股票占资产总值的比重较上季度下降0.7个百分点至22.9%；债券资产占比较上季度上升 ...