点击小程序查看报告原文 1月进入年报业绩预报和快报的披露高峰期。 12月中下旬以来A股市场单边上行，近期再创十年新高，交投情绪明显改善。随着A股上市公司年报业绩预 报在1月集中披露，我们认为业绩出现改善或超预期的行业和个股可能成为投资者关注的主线。截至1月10日，A股已披露年报预告的公司数量约占1.8%， 我们结合中金行业分析员自下而上预测，梳理年报业绩预览供投资者参考： 2025年全年A股盈利同比有望结束此前四年的增速连降，转为正增长。 从2025年四季度宏观数据来看，内需方面，四季度社零增速延续放缓，1-11月社零 总额同比+4.0%（vs.前三季度4.5%），以旧换新政策影响退坡；房地产量价走弱，房企投资仍偏谨慎；物价层面，4Q25物价水平边际改善，CPI同比由三 季度的-0.2%转正至0.6%，PPI同比降幅收窄至-2.1%；外需方面，10-11月人民币计价的出口金额同比分别为-0.8%/5.7%，2024年高基数为主要扰动，需求 侧整体平稳。考虑到2024年四季度非金融盈利因减值造成的低基数，我们预计单四季度盈利同比有望出现改善。2025年前三季度全部A股/金融/非金融盈 利增速分别为5.4%/9. ...

"天量"存款到期"叙事"的来龙去脉。 市场对"天量"存款到期的讨论实际上可以追溯到2022-2023年的居民长期限存款的高增长：当时两年居民存 款净增28万亿元，相比2021年的水平形成约5万亿元的长期限"超额存款"，这一部分存款在2025-2026年陆续到期。但我们认为存款并非居民储蓄 的唯一形式，居民储蓄应同时将存款和银行理财产品纳入考虑范围。实际上，2022-2023年的存款高增长实际上主要由于理财的再配置，当时由于 债市利率迅速上行导致理财产品出现净值回撤和赎回的"负反馈"。因此，我们认为这一部分"超额存款"的性质上与理财产品近似，主要在低风险 偏好资产中进行配置切换。 如何衡量存款搬家的潜力？ 相比市场关注的存款到期"叙事"，我们认为综合考虑居民存款和理财的"超额储蓄"更为关键。我们使用每年居民储蓄/ 可支配收入测算储蓄率，将超出长期趋势水平的储蓄作为"超额储蓄"。根据我们的测算，2022年-2025年期间居民共形成约6万亿元超额储蓄，并 且2025年居民储蓄倾向仍然位于21%左右的高位，显示出虽然资本市场回暖，居民投资和消费的边际倾向总体上并未明显提升。 因此，我们认为 当前市场"存款搬家"叙事并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of A-shares at the beginning of 2026 is primarily driven by "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce return assets," rather than significant changes in the macroeconomic fundamentals [2][3][5]. Group 1: A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a 16-day consecutive rise, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, continuing the trend from 2025 [3][5]. - The main contributors to the A-share gains are valuation expansions, with sectors like commercial aerospace and materials leading the charge [5][8]. - A-share trading volumes have reached historical highs, with a single-day turnover exceeding 30 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [5][8]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market has lagged behind, primarily due to a lack of attractive structural opportunities and weaker capital flows [9][11]. - Key sectors in Hong Kong, such as dividends, internet, and new consumption, are not currently in the market's focus, leading to underperformance [11][19]. - The Hong Kong IPO market remains active, with significant fundraising, but the overall market sentiment is subdued compared to A-shares [17][19]. Group 3: Capital Flow and Liquidity - Domestic capital flows have favored A-shares, with southbound capital flows slowing down significantly since late 2025 [15][19]. - The liquidity environment for A-shares is more favorable, benefiting from domestic microeconomic conditions, while Hong Kong faces constraints from external factors [28][30]. - The anticipated inflow of southbound capital in 2026 may not match the record levels seen in 2025, as A-shares attract more attention [30][32]. Group 4: Structural Differences and Future Outlook - A-shares are expected to have a higher overall profit growth rate of 4%-5% in 2026, compared to Hong Kong's 3%, driven by stronger sectors like technology and manufacturing [25][26]. - The structural advantages of Hong Kong, including its focus on dividends and innovative drugs, provide unique investment opportunities, even as A-shares outperform overall [30][32]. - The ongoing credit cycle and its impact on market dynamics will guide investment strategies, with a focus on sectors like AI, dividends, and cyclical stocks [33].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the European economy is expected to show unexpected resilience in 2025, with a continued recovery in domestic demand driven by policy support in 2026, particularly focusing on the effects of fiscal expansion in Germany [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Fiscal Policy - In 2025, Germany's government initiated a crucial fiscal transformation amid a backdrop of low growth, with GDP significantly lagging behind other developed economies due to structural challenges like energy costs [4]. - Private consumption and fixed capital formation have seen a decline in their contributions to GDP growth, dropping from pre-pandemic averages of 0.8% and 0.6% to recent figures of 0.2% and -0.5% respectively [4]. - Industrial production has been on a downward trend since peaking in 2018, with significant declines in sectors such as automotive, basic metals, and machinery [4][8]. Group 2: Recent Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, fiscal policy outcomes were below expectations, leading to weak economic momentum, with Q2 showing negative growth and Q3 stagnating [13]. - The IFO business climate index weakened post-Q3, while the ZEW economic expectations index showed slight recovery but remained below Q2 levels [13]. - Private consumption weakened in Q3, although government consumption accelerated, and fixed capital formation began contributing positively to GDP growth [13][19]. Group 3: Industrial Production and Orders - By November 2025, industrial production showed signs of improvement, particularly in construction, with a 1% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [23]. - Domestic orders saw significant recovery, with year-on-year growth of 14% and 17% in October and November respectively, marking the highest levels since January 2022 [30]. - The increase in domestic orders was primarily driven by sectors such as other transport equipment and metal products, reflecting ongoing defense spending [30]. Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Market expectations for Germany's growth in 2026 remain cautious, with Bloomberg forecasting a real GDP growth of around 1%, similar to pre-fiscal shift levels [34]. - The German government has initiated structural reforms aimed at boosting potential growth, although the actual impact of these reforms is still to be observed [34].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services through the integration of insights from over 30 specialized teams and a comprehensive coverage of more than 1,800 stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform utilizes advanced model technology to enhance the research experience for clients [1]. Group 2: Research Content - Daily updates on research focus and timely article selections are provided through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - The platform features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots [4]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - CICC Insight includes over 160 industry research frameworks and more than 40 premium databases, along with a comprehensive data dashboard [10]. - The platform also offers AI search capabilities for efficient information retrieval and intelligent Q&A features [10].

Group 1: Banking Industry - The capital market's focus on the trend of deposit migration has increased, indicating a growing certainty in this narrative. It is projected that by 2026, residents may add approximately 2-4 trillion yuan of activated funds to non-deposit investment areas due to this trend [4][3]. - The report discusses potential beneficiaries of the deposit migration, highlighting the sectors and products that may attract these funds [4]. Group 2: Macroeconomy - In 2026, the pressure from mid-term elections may lead to a softening of Trump's foreign policy, shifting focus to domestic issues, which could effectively promote fiscal and monetary easing, alleviating three major constraints on the U.S. economy in 2025 [6]. - The technology, industrial, and resource sectors are expected to continue leading the market in 2026, while consumer and financial sectors may catch up as nominal cycles improve. A weaker dollar could provide room for the renminbi to appreciate, benefiting A/H shares [6]. Group 3: Strategy - Historical analysis of Japan's market in the 1990s shows that failure to address structural issues like household balance sheets and weak livelihoods led to prolonged economic stagnation. In contrast, significant policy shifts towards improving livelihoods and debt resolution post-2000 resulted in a long bull market [8]. - The report suggests that prioritizing policies that support household balance sheets and debt resolution could effectively enhance domestic demand resilience and lead to a stable revaluation of Chinese assets [8]. Group 4: Strategy - The A-share market in 2025 exhibited a trend of steady upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high. Key drivers included the restructuring of international order and domestic industrial innovation, which propelled the revaluation of Chinese assets [12]. - The market saw active participation from individual investors and a shift in funds due to deposit migration, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks and growth stocks outperforming value stocks by the end of the year [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company continues to be optimistic about the performance of "forestry-pulp-paper integration" leaders by 2026, emphasizing that integration is key to achieving cost hedging and resource revaluation amid resource constraints and cost fluctuations. Focus should be on "value integrators" with high fiber self-sufficiency and resource barriers [2]. Industry Overview - After the paper industry bull market in 2021, profit distribution has tilted towards the pulp end, with a "long tail effect" in paper capacity clearance. The industry chain currently shows characteristics of "high concentration at the resource end and dispersed competition at the processing end," with pulp being a scarce resource commanding strong pricing power. The midstream paper sector is squeezed by high pulp prices and weak demand, leading to a continuous narrowing of profit margins [5][7]. - The strategic paradigm has shifted from capacity expansion to industry chain integration. Chinese paper companies have entered a mature phase of stock competition, where growth driven solely by capital expenditure is unsustainable. The core strategy has shifted to using self-owned fiber to hedge against volatile pulp prices, transforming leading companies from "global resource movers" to "value integrators" [5][8]. Market Dynamics - A short-term supply gap for wood chips is expected in 2026, with a potential recovery in pulp price levels. The domestic market has seen large-scale production of self-made pulp, but the construction cycle for quality wood chip resources lags behind equipment production. This is anticipated to push up cost levels as demand marginally improves [6]. - The competition landscape is characterized by heavy asset attributes and slow clearance. The investment per ton of paper exceeds 5,000 yuan, while pulp investment is over 2,000 yuan, leading to a long payback period. High depreciation necessitates maintaining high capacity utilization for cash flow, but the supply exceeds demand, and the core contradiction lies in the slow clearance efficiency at the bottom of the cycle [7]. Strategic Evolution - The industry has transitioned from a demand-driven phase to a mature phase of stock competition. Due to a lack of quality forest resources for pulp production, paper companies are in a "strong manufacturing, weak resource" decoupling state, making them vulnerable to global pulp price and exchange rate fluctuations. The strategic focus of leading companies has shifted to "forestry-pulp-paper integration," allowing them to convert unstable processing profits into certain resource premiums [8][9]. Global Comparison - Compared to emerging markets like Brazil, which are still in a dual growth phase of resources and consumption, the valuation logic of Chinese paper companies is undergoing reconstruction. Future focus will shift from capacity growth to the self-sufficiency rate of the entire industry chain. Leading companies are moving away from being "global resource movers" and are enhancing their cost control capabilities, which is crucial for maintaining stable ROE and achieving valuation recovery [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing transformation of the real estate industry towards a new model, focusing on asset management as a key capability for high-quality development in housing and operational real estate businesses [2][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Trends - The transition of real estate companies to asset management firms has been primarily driven by financial deepening over the past 40 years, with significant progress observed in Western economies during the 2010s, while Asian markets are still in the early stages of this transformation [4][5]. - The level of securitization and liquidity in the real estate sector has evolved in tandem with the overall development of capital markets, indicating a crucial part of global capital market development [4]. Group 2: China's Market Dynamics - China is at a dual turning point of urbanization and financial market development, making the exploration of asset management by real estate companies an inevitable direction, with the 14th Five-Year Plan potentially being a critical period for institutional development [5][41]. - The market has begun to recognize the transition path from "traditional development" to "development + holding" and then to "asset management," with leading companies starting to implement this model [5][41]. - The transformation of real estate companies in China faces challenges, including reliance on policy support to address various bottlenecks and the need for organizational and capability adjustments [5][42]. Group 3: Financial Deepening and Structural Changes - The financial deepening over the past four decades has led to a more stable housing ownership rate in developed economies, with cyclical fluctuations in supply and demand being increasingly influenced by capital flows and asset prices [9][10]. - The rise of asset management companies has been facilitated by the development of securitization and the increasing liquidity of real estate assets, which has allowed for a shift from direct asset accumulation to managing larger portfolios [13][25]. Group 4: International Comparisons - The evolution of real estate companies in Western markets, particularly the U.S., showcases a more market-oriented and financialized approach, leading to a more competitive landscape compared to East Asian markets, where companies often maintain a mixed business model [16][21]. - Japanese real estate firms have undergone significant structural adjustments post-1990s, focusing on diversification and service-oriented business models, although they have not fully transitioned to asset management firms [27][30]. - Singaporean firms exemplify an outward-looking asset management model, leveraging their REITs market to facilitate international investments and capital expansion [33][35]. Group 5: Future Outlook for China's Real Estate Industry - The future of China's real estate market is expected to focus on managing existing assets and optimizing new developments, with a shift towards a sales model based on completed properties rather than pre-sales [41][48]. - The ongoing process of destocking and deleveraging in the real estate sector is anticipated to continue, with a significant reduction in the scale of many companies as they adapt to new market conditions [42][46]. - The development of a robust REITs market is seen as essential for promoting the securitization of operational real estate and enhancing liquidity, which will support the transition to a new business model in the industry [47][50].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that Chatbot has emerged as the "Killer App" of the AI era, transforming user interactions and productivity through natural language processing and engagement [5][8][12] - ChatGPT leads the global market with over 870 million monthly active users (MAU) and a market share of 63%, while domestic competitor Doubao has surpassed 100 million daily active users (DAU) [22][36] - The evolution from Chatbot to Agent is highlighted as a significant trend, with potential for enhanced user engagement and commercial applications [6][54] Group 1: Market Dynamics - ChatGPT's user engagement metrics are comparable to established social platforms, with an average of 13 active days per month, indicating strong user retention [14][22] - Gemini, backed by Google, is rapidly catching up with ChatGPT, boasting 337 million MAU and leveraging Google's ecosystem for market penetration [22][36] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of general and specialized AI applications, with companies like Anthropic and Perplexity carving out niches in the B2B space [26][36] Group 2: User Engagement and Retention - ChatGPT's user retention rates exceed those of competitors, with 7-day and 30-day retention rates significantly higher than other platforms [26][27] - The usage patterns of ChatGPT have evolved from a work-focused tool to a more integrated part of users' daily lives, reflecting a shift in user behavior [14][21] - The article notes that over 15% of ChatGPT users engage with both the mobile app and web version, indicating deep integration into user workflows [26] Group 3: Technological Evolution - The transition from Chatbot to Agent is seen as a natural progression, with the potential for AI to become a proactive entity that understands and executes tasks autonomously [54][56] - The article discusses the importance of multi-modal capabilities in enhancing user experience and the potential for AI to handle complex workflows [51][57] - Future developments in AI are expected to focus on personalized interactions and the integration of various services, moving towards a more comprehensive AI platform [54][60] Group 4: Commercialization Strategies - Current monetization strategies for Chatbots vary, with subscription models prevalent in overseas markets and free models dominating in China [6][12] - The article suggests that a hybrid model of "free + transaction-oriented advertising" could emerge as a more effective commercial strategy in the long term [6] - The competition for user engagement will likely intensify as companies explore new revenue models and service integrations [65][66]

Core Viewpoint - The "Fixed Income +" fund is expected to continue its growth trajectory into 2026, driven by various factors including the migration of resident wealth seeking stable returns, institutional demand for enhanced yields, and the market consensus on cross-asset diversification [2][25][28]. Group 1: Growth Drivers for "Fixed Income +" Funds - The long-term low interest rate environment is driving residents to seek stable and moderately higher returns, making "Fixed Income +" funds an attractive option for wealth migration [25][28]. - Institutional investors are facing rigid liability cost pressures, leading them to increase their risk exposure and volatility tolerance to achieve better returns, thus favoring "Fixed Income +" funds as a new allocation channel [25][28]. - The performance of "Fixed Income +" funds has already gained market recognition, with significant returns reported in 2025, making them appealing to both retail and institutional investors [25][26][28]. Group 2: Performance and Strategy Insights - In 2025, "Fixed Income +" funds saw a notable increase in market attention, with strategies dynamically evolving alongside market trends, such as a focus on convertible bonds and equity markets [4][8][18]. - The "Fixed Income + Technology" and "Fixed Income + Growth" strategies outperformed others, with median returns of 11.71% and 8.85% respectively, indicating strong market interest in these areas [16][18]. - The growth of "Fixed Income +" funds is significantly influenced by long-term performance metrics, with a strong correlation between past performance and fund size growth [34][36]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Fund Management - The competitive landscape for "Fixed Income +" funds has shifted, with some institutions achieving rapid growth in management scale through differentiated strategies and strong performance in equity opportunities [18][19]. - Institutions that successfully attract incremental funds often leverage unique product offerings and strong stock-picking capabilities, particularly in high-volatility sectors like technology and growth [45][41]. - The market is expected to see a bifurcation in "Fixed Income +" fund strategies, with "extreme style" funds attracting more capital, while funds focusing on stable returns and cost-effectiveness also hold significant potential for growth [46][47].