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研报 | 英伟达H20出口解禁助力需求释放,预估中国外购AI芯片比例将回升至49%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-16 09:05
Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA is expected to resume sales of H20 GPUs in the Chinese market, which will boost local AI and cloud service providers' demand, making H20 a key player in high-end AI chips and increasing HBM demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - TrendForce estimates that NVIDIA's potential push to meet its original shipment targets will increase the proportion of NVIDIA and AMD chips purchased in the Chinese AI market to 49%, up from a previous estimate of 42% due to export restrictions [2]. - The resumption of H20 supply is anticipated to effectively release deployment demand for AI applications in China, particularly among large cloud service providers (CSPs) who will prioritize building their own data center infrastructure [2]. - NVIDIA plans to launch a special version of the RTX PRO 6000 for the Chinese market to meet diverse application needs, including edge AI inference [2]. Group 2: HBM Insights - The H20 expected to ship in 2024 will primarily use HBM3 8hi, with a gradual upgrade to HBM3e 8hi by early 2025, increasing total capacity [2]. - Currently, many self-developed ASIC products in China utilize previously procured HBM2e, but H20 is expected to be favored, leading to an increase in its share of HBM consumption [2]. Group 3: Uncertainties and Opportunities - The development of the AI market in China is influenced by international circumstances, leading to a degree of uncertainty for NVIDIA [2]. - When the export ban on H20 is lifted, local CSPs and OEMs are expected to actively accumulate inventory, while domestic AI suppliers and ecosystems will rapidly develop under supportive policies [2].
研报 | 预估中国Robotaxi市场规模将于2035年达445亿美元
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-15 03:56
Core Insights - Tesla is testing its Robotaxi technology in Texas and plans to expand services to the San Francisco Bay Area, which has garnered industry attention [1] - The Robotaxi market in the U.S. is expected to be dominated by Tesla and Waymo, with a projected market size of $36.5 billion by 2035 [1] - The Chinese Robotaxi market is also growing rapidly, with an expected market size of $44.5 billion by 2035, driven by a robust supply chain and decreasing hardware costs [3] Group 1: U.S. Robotaxi Market - Tesla's expansion of Robotaxi services depends on two key indicators: the speed of obtaining deployment permits and the timely mass production of the Cybercab by 2026 [2] - The U.S. Robotaxi market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 61% from 2025 to 2035 [2] - Tesla's advantages in vehicle manufacturing and visual solutions may allow it to maintain lower hardware costs compared to competitors like Waymo, which may face challenges in maintaining its leadership position [2] Group 2: Chinese Robotaxi Market - The Chinese Robotaxi market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 96% from 2025 to 2035, with a projected market size of $44.5 billion by 2035 [3] - Key players in the Chinese market include Baidu, Pony.ai, and WeRide, which are actively participating in the sector [3] - The increase in the number of vehicles and strong support from local electric vehicle manufacturers and supply chains will lead to a rapid decrease in hardware costs for Robotaxi solutions [3] Group 3: Challenges in the Robotaxi Industry - The Robotaxi industry faces several challenges, including varying autonomous driving policies across different countries and regions, which may limit fleet expansion [6] - The complexity of autonomous driving technology and the significant R&D investment required make it difficult for new entrants to penetrate the market [6] - Social trust issues, such as potential driver unemployment, vehicle safety concerns, and privacy issues, may impact the future development and adoption of Robotaxi services [6]
每周观察|预计Q3整体DRAM价格季增15%至20%,短期内DDR4仍将供不应求;Q3 NAND Flash价格季增5%至10%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-11 03:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a transition in the DRAM market, with a significant increase in contract prices for Consumer DDR4 expected to rise over 40% in Q3 2025 due to the shift in production capacity towards high-end products and the end of life for older generation products [1] - The general DRAM price is projected to increase by 10% to 15% in Q3 2025, and when including HBM, the overall DRAM price increase is expected to be between 15% to 20% [1] Group 2 - The NAND Flash market is anticipated to see a contract price increase of 5% to 10% in Q3 2025, following a period of production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025 [4] - The demand for NAND Flash is supported by increased investments in AI and the substantial shipment of NVIDIA's new Blackwell chips, although the eMMC and UFS products are expected to have lower price increases due to uncertain smartphone demand in the second half of the year [4]
光伏周价格 | 光伏产业链积极报涨,月内价格将有所抬升
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-10 04:06
Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive overview of the current pricing trends and market dynamics within the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting stability in prices across various segments while indicating potential future price adjustments due to supply and demand factors [5][9][10]. Pricing Trends - The prices for N-type polysilicon remain stable, with mainstream transaction prices reported at 34.5 RMB/KG for N-type re-investment material, 32.0 RMB/KG for N-type dense material, and 31.5 RMB/KG for N-type granular silicon [5]. - In the silicon wafer segment, the mainstream transaction prices are 0.88 RMB/piece for N-type M10 wafers, 1.20 RMB/piece for N-type G12 wafers, and 1.00 RMB/piece for N-type G12R wafers [9]. - For battery cells, the mainstream transaction prices are 0.225 RMB/W for M10 single crystal TOPCon cells and 0.245 RMB/W for both G12 and G12R single crystal TOPCon cells [13]. - In the module segment, the mainstream transaction prices are 0.67 RMB/W for 182mm double-sided double-glass TOPCon modules and 0.72 RMB/W for 210mm double-sided double-glass HJT modules [17]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with an inventory level exceeding 370,000 tons, indicating upward pressure on inventory due to increased production and reduced downstream procurement [7][8]. - The silicon wafer manufacturers are reducing production to stabilize inventory levels, with a consensus among manufacturers to maintain healthy inventory levels following previous overproduction experiences [10][11]. - In the battery cell segment, there is a notable increase in inventory pressure due to insufficient production cuts, leading to a clear accumulation trend [16]. Market Sentiment - Polysilicon manufacturers are showing a strong determination to maintain prices despite the current market conditions, with some attempting to raise prices in response to inventory pressures [6][9]. - The atmosphere for price increases in the silicon wafer segment is growing, with leading manufacturers reportedly raising prices while others follow suit [10][19]. - The demand for components in overseas markets is fluctuating, with European prices declining due to low-cost imports, while Indian prices are slightly increasing due to government projects [20].
研报 | 预估3Q25 NAND Flash合约价季增5%至10%,手机需求弱抑制eMMC、UFS涨幅
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-09 04:04
Core Viewpoint - The NAND Flash market is experiencing improved supply-demand balance due to production cuts and inventory reduction, with expectations for price increases in various segments in Q3 2025 [1][4][5]. NAND Flash Market Overview - The NAND Flash market has seen a significant improvement in supply-demand balance following production cuts and inventory reduction in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Major manufacturers are shifting production capacity to high-margin products, leading to a reduction in market supply [1]. Price Forecasts - Average contract prices for NAND Flash are expected to increase by 5% to 10% in Q3 2025, with specific segments showing varied growth rates [2]. - eMMC and UFS products are projected to have limited price increases due to uncertain smartphone demand, with expected growth of 0% to 5% [2][6]. Client SSD Market Dynamics - The Client SSD market is experiencing inventory replenishment, driven by better-than-expected inventory reduction in the first half of the year [4]. - Factors such as the end of Windows 10 support, new CPU launches, and demand from Chinese DeepSeek all contribute to increased Client SSD demand, with price forecasts of a 3% to 8% increase in Q3 2025 [4][5]. Enterprise SSD Demand - The demand for Enterprise SSDs is expected to grow due to rising orders from North American general-purpose servers and strong orders from Chinese clients [5]. - However, supply chain challenges may hinder delivery capabilities, leading to a price increase of 5% to 10% for Enterprise SSDs in Q3 2025 [5]. Mobile Product Segment - The demand for eMMC and UFS products is expected to remain flat, with eMMC prices projected to increase by 0% to 5% due to sufficient supply and rising costs for module manufacturers [6]. - UFS demand is also limited by uncertain smartphone market conditions, with a similar price forecast of 0% to 5% increase [6]. Wafer Supply and Pricing - The overall NAND Flash production is declining, and manufacturers are focusing on high-margin products, leading to an expected price increase of 8% to 13% for wafers in Q3 2025 [6].
面板价格观察 | 7月,预估电视面板价格呈下跌趋势,显示器面板需求放缓
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-08 08:41
Core Viewpoint - The panel prices are expected to decline in July 2025, particularly for TV panels, while monitor and laptop panel prices are anticipated to remain stable [3][4][6]. Group 1: TV Panels - Demand for TV panels remains weak, leading some brand clients to adjust their procurement orders for Q3 while negotiating better prices with panel manufacturers [3][4]. - The forecast indicates a price drop of $1 for 32-inch and 43-inch panels, and a $2 drop for 50-inch, 55-inch, 65-inch, and 75-inch panels [4]. Group 2: Monitor Panels - The demand for monitor panels has also shown signs of slowing down, with only a few specifications experiencing slight supply shortages [4]. - The overall price trend for monitor panels is expected to stabilize, influenced by the declining prices of TV panels [4]. Group 3: Laptop Panels - There is a slight increase in optimism regarding the demand for laptop panels, with brand clients becoming more proactive in negotiations for better pricing [6]. - The overall price for laptop panels is expected to remain stable in July, with future price movements dependent on negotiations between brand clients and manufacturers [6].
研报 | 3Q25新旧世代DRAM交替,合约价走势分化,Consumer DDR4将季增逾40%
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-07 08:24
Core Viewpoint - The shift in production capacity by major DRAM manufacturers towards high-end products and the end-of-life (EOL) announcements for older generation products like DDR4 and LPDDR4X are driving a significant increase in DRAM prices, with expectations of a 10% to 15% increase in conventional DRAM prices in Q3 2025, and a 15% to 20% increase when including HBM [1][4]. Summary by Category DRAM Price Trends - The demand for DDR4 remains strong, leading to a projected price increase of 40% to 45% for consumer DDR4 in Q3 2025 due to supply constraints and prioritization of server needs [4][5]. - Overall, conventional DRAM prices are expected to rise by 10% to 15% in Q3 2025, while HBM prices may increase by 15% to 20% [2][4]. PC DRAM Market - The price of PC DRAM is anticipated to increase by 8% to 13% in Q3 2025, driven by heightened demand and supply limitations as manufacturers shift focus to server DRAM [5]. - The EOL policy for DDR4 is causing a supply squeeze, particularly affecting consumer applications [5]. Server DRAM Market - The demand for DDR5 is strengthening due to data center expansions, while DDR4 is experiencing preemptive stockpiling ahead of its EOL [5]. - Server DRAM prices are expected to rise by 3% to 8% in Q3 2025, supported by new platform deployments and AI server requirements [5]. Mobile DRAM Market - LPDDR4X prices are projected to increase by 23% to 28% in Q3 2025 due to rising demand and supply reductions from major manufacturers [6]. - LPDDR5X prices are expected to rise by 5% to 10% as a result of seasonal demand [6]. Graphics DRAM Market - GDDR6 is experiencing a supply shortage, leading to significant price increases in Q3 2025, while GDDR7 is being introduced to meet new GPU demands [6].
最新面板价格趋势预测(2025年7月)
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-07 08:24
Core Viewpoint - The latest report from TrendForce indicates a continued decline in TV panel prices for July 2025, while prices for monitors and laptops remain stable [1][3]. TV Panels - The average price for a 65-inch TV panel is $174, down by $2 or 1.1% from the previous month, with a range between $169 and $178 [5]. - The average price for a 55-inch TV panel is $124, also down by $2 or 1.6%, with a range from $119 to $127 [6]. - The average price for a 43-inch TV panel is $64, down by $1 or 1.5%, with a range from $62 to $65 [7]. - The average price for a 32-inch TV panel is $35, down by $1 or 2.8%, with a range from $34 to $36 [8]. Monitor Panels - The forecast indicates that monitor panel prices are expected to remain unchanged [8]. - The average price for a 27-inch IPS panel is projected to be $63, with a range from $57.6 to $65.8 [9]. - The average price for a 23.8-inch IPS panel is expected to be $49.9, with a range from $47.1 to $51.4 [10]. Laptop Panels - The forecast suggests that prices for laptop panels across various sizes will remain stable [10]. - The average price for a 17.3-inch TN panel has stabilized at $38.3, with a range from $37.7 to $39.8 [11]. - The average price for a 15.6-inch Value IPS panel is expected to remain at $40.3, with a range from $38.6 to $41.9 [12]. - The average price for a 14.0-inch TN panel has stabilized at $26.9, with a range from $26.4 to $28.1 [13]. - The average price for an 11.6-inch TN panel has stabilized at $25.1, with a range from $24.2 to $26.5 [14].
光伏周价格 | 产业链价格持续触底,月内跌幅逐渐收窄
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-03 04:54
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting price stability in various segments despite high inventory levels and weak demand, indicating potential challenges ahead for pricing and production [4][5][9]. Price Trends - The price of N-type polysilicon remains stable, with mainstream transaction prices at 34.5 RMB/kg for N-type re-investment material, 32.0 RMB/kg for N-type dense material, and 31.5 RMB/kg for N-type granular silicon [4][5]. - In the silicon wafer segment, the mainstream transaction prices are 0.88 RMB/piece for N-type M10 wafers, 1.20 RMB/piece for N-type G12 wafers, and 1.00 RMB/piece for N-type G12R wafers [9][10]. - For battery cells, the mainstream transaction prices are 0.225 RMB/W for M10 single crystal TOPCon cells, and 0.245 RMB/W for both G12 and G12R single crystal TOPCon cells [13][14]. - In the module segment, the mainstream transaction prices are 0.67 RMB/W for 182mm TOPCon double-sided double-glass modules and 0.72 RMB/W for 210mm HJT double-sided double-glass modules [17][19]. Inventory Dynamics - The inventory of polysilicon in the industry is over 370,000 tons, with leading manufacturers increasing output, leading to a potential oversupply situation [7][8]. - Silicon wafer inventory remains above 2 billion pieces, with 183N wafers accounting for over 50% of the total, indicating a buildup of stock [11]. - Battery cell manufacturers have approximately 10 days of inventory, but this may rise due to oversupply, particularly with 183N cells [15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In July, polysilicon output is expected to be between 110,000 to 115,000 tons, with demand from the silicon wafer side showing slow inventory reduction and price pressure from downstream [8][10]. - The module production is projected to be between 52 to 53 GW, with a 6% month-over-month increase, but demand remains weak, particularly from second and third-tier manufacturers [18][19]. - The article notes that the overall demand for components is supported mainly by centralized projects, but there is uncertainty in the market due to declining prices [18][20]. International Market Insights - In Europe, component prices have decreased, affecting overall pricing due to an influx of low-priced components [20]. - In India, DCR component prices have slightly increased due to government projects, while imported components have seen a price drop due to oversupply [20]. - In the U.S., FOB product prices have slightly increased, with ongoing discussions regarding tax credits for projects expected to be operational by the end of 2027 [20].
研报 | 受国际形势变化影响,2025年AI服务器出货年增幅度略减
TrendForce集邦· 2025-07-02 06:03
Core Insights - The North American large CSPs are the main drivers of AI Server market demand expansion, with a forecasted 24.3% year-on-year growth in global AI Server shipments for this year, slightly revised down due to international circumstances [1][4] Group 1: North American CSPs - Microsoft is focusing on AI investments, which has somewhat suppressed the procurement of general-purpose servers, primarily utilizing NVIDIA's GPU AI solutions for AI Server deployment [1] - Meta has significantly increased its demand for general-purpose servers due to new data center openings, primarily using AMD platforms, and is actively expanding its AI Server infrastructure with self-developed ASICs expected to double in shipments by 2026 [1] - Google has benefited from sovereign cloud projects and new data centers in Southeast Asia, significantly boosting server demand, and has begun mainstream production of its TPU v6e for AI inference [2] - AWS is focusing on its self-developed Trainium v2 platform, with plans for Trainium v3 development expected to launch in 2026, anticipating a doubling of its self-developed ASIC shipments by 2025 [2] - Oracle is emphasizing the procurement of AI Servers and In-Memory Database Servers, actively integrating its core cloud database and AI applications [3] Group 2: Market Outlook - Due to international circumstances, many Server Enterprise OEMs are reassessing their market plans for the second half of 2025, with an overall forecast of approximately 5% year-on-year growth in total server shipments, including both general-purpose and AI Servers [4]