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每日债市速递 | 2026年继续实施更加积极财政政策
Wind万得· 2025-12-28 22:31
Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 930 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40% on December 26, resulting in a net injection of 368 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 562 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] - A total of 622.7 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature in the week from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, with significant amounts maturing on specific days [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintains a stable and slightly loose funding condition, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate slightly decreasing and remaining below 1.26%, while the D R007 increased by about 4 basis points due to year-end factors [3] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 3.66% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, unchanged from the previous day [6] Government Bonds and Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.36%, the 10-year by 0.10%, the 5-year by 0.05%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [10] Fiscal Policy Developments - The national fiscal work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending, optimizing government bond tools, and enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payment funds [11] - A new guideline was issued to strengthen the role of government financing guarantee systems in supporting employment and entrepreneurship, particularly for labor-intensive small and micro enterprises [11] Financial Sector Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total assets of financial institutions in China reached 531.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with the banking sector's assets at 474.31 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% [11] Investment Fund Initiatives - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been officially launched, with regional funds established in key areas to attract diverse investments and support innovative enterprises in strategic emerging industries [12] Global Economic Insights - Japan's government approved a preliminary budget for FY 2026, with total general account expenditures reaching 122.3092 trillion yen, marking a historical high due to rising costs and increased tax revenues [14]
12月29日热门路演速递 | 洞见2026投资主航道!全球配置、跨年行情、海外双宽、航天基建、机械全球化五重共振
Wind万得· 2025-12-28 22:31
Group 1 - The 2025 CICC Wealth Annual Investment Strategy Conference focuses on a comprehensive outlook for 2026, covering global macroeconomic trends, major asset classes, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, bond markets, foreign exchange, and commodities, emphasizing the new investment paradigm under the theme "Ride the Momentum, Seek New Opportunities" [2] - Key speakers include leading analysts from CICC, providing insights into the impact of AI, easing trading conditions, economic recovery, and restructuring of order on investment strategies [2][3] Group 2 - The CICC Macro Strategy Weekly discusses strategies for positioning in the cross-year market, analyzing 50 key global and Chinese market charts, and exploring the implications of policy-driven supply-side reforms on consumption [5][6] - The report highlights the strengthening of the RMB and its effects on exchange rate dynamics and asset revaluation, aiming to assist investors in seizing opportunities at the beginning of 2026 [5][6] Group 3 - The macroeconomic outlook for the U.S. in 2026 includes considerations for the upcoming elections, with a focus on the interplay between monetary policy, fiscal measures, and tariff policies [8] - The U.S. economic forecast suggests a V-shaped recovery with a K-shaped structural outcome, indicating varied performance across sectors [9] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to benefit from the "14th Five-Year Plan," with significant opportunities arising from policy, performance, and technological advancements in 2026 [11] - Breakthroughs in rocket reusability are projected to significantly reduce launch costs and increase launch frequency, while advanced manufacturing concepts from the automotive industry will facilitate large-scale satellite production [11] Group 5 - The mechanical sector is witnessing a cyclical reversal and growth, with AI leading the charge in innovation and development [14] - Chinese industry leaders are positioned to shine on the global stage, reflecting a new wave of globalization [14]
从金庸小说到Z世代酒桌,江湖情长竹叶青始终在场
Wind万得· 2025-12-28 22:31
"好酒当歌竹叶青,河汾玉翠酿晶莹,一壶好酒走天下,何处江山不醉情。" 金庸曾这样称赞竹叶青酒,先生笔下江湖侠客的豪情壮志总与美酒相伴,而竹叶青,无疑是这份"江湖 酒单"里的顶流。金庸先生还曾在一部书中连续 3 次提及竹叶青酒,字里行间的偏爱,让这杯酒自带侠 义基因,成为无数人心中的"江湖标配"。 笔墨留香处,江湖意未尽,但比小说更悠远、比江湖更广阔的,是竹叶青酒绵延千年的真实生命力。从 历史深处走来,今天这杯底蕴愈发厚重的竹叶青酒,正持续不断走进着 Z 世代的酒桌,在新的时代语 境里续写着在场故事。 悦己正当潮!竹叶青酒成 Z 世代酒桌宠儿 当 Z 世代逐渐成为消费市场的主力军,酒桌也随之迎来一场深刻的审美与需求变革。当代消费者尤其 是 Z 世代,对酒饮的需求已从传统的社交应酬,转向"悦己消费"与"情绪价值"的追求, Z 世代与新中产 群体愈发追求低负担、有质感、富有情绪价值的饮用体验。 作为中国露酒的典范,竹叶青酒恰好提供了这种"轻松感":竹叶青酒与生俱来的草本基因自带健康底 色,经华罗庚"优选法"精调的适中酒精度,搭配顺雅温润、饮后不易上头的特质,从根源上满足了年轻 人对"低负担饮酒"的核心诉求。 口感上 ...
提前18个月精准预警展期风险
Wind万得· 2025-12-28 22:31
临近年末,某大型企业名下债券展期的消息搅动了整个债市,风暴席卷资本市场。某深耕固收领域多年的私募 基金 由于持有该企业债券,旗下产品净值下跌;多家资管机构因持有该企业债券或非标资产敞口,而陷入进退两难境地。 待风险事件爆发才惊觉危 机,已错失最佳处置时机 。 但如果,能提前18个月就获得风险预警呢? 这可不是 纸上谈兵的空话:早在该企业债券发生 展期的18个月之 前的2024 年4月,Wind AI结合机器学习模型针对种种风险特征的精密计算,已将其违约风险等级从"中风险"逐步调为"高风险"、"极高风险" - 提前18个月 发出精准预警,为风险处置留足缓冲期 。 | 评分更新日期 | 主体违约风险评分(分) | 主体违约风险等级 | 风险等级变动方向 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-04-19 | 2.67 | 极高风险 | 维持 | | 2025-02-18 | 8.62 | 极高风险 | 調低 | | 2025-01-09 | 20.06 | 高风险 | 维持 | | 2024-07-13 | 25.48 | 高风险 | 维持 | | 2024-06-23 | 29.8 ...
投资前瞻:多项财经大事集中来袭
Wind万得· 2025-12-28 22:31
Market News - The Ministry of Finance announced that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, enhancing transfer payment efficiency, and improving expenditure structure [3] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the December PMI data on December 31, with November's manufacturing PMI at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October [4] - The People's Bank of China aims to significantly increase the scale and proportion of various long-term funds invested in A-shares, promoting a virtuous cycle between capital market stability and high-quality economic development [6] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced a series of fee reduction measures for 2026, expected to save over 1.9 billion yuan in total [7] Sector Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, focusing on key technologies and industry standards [11] - The 2025 Shenzhen Brain Conference aims to create a platform for industry integration and innovation [13] - The 2025 China Green Hydrogen Industry Conference will discuss policies and technological breakthroughs that will impact the green hydrogen industry chain [14] Individual Stock Events - CATL plans to apply sodium batteries on a large scale in various sectors including battery swapping and energy storage in 2026 [17] - Xiaomi's co-founder plans to reduce holdings of up to $2 billion in B-class common stock [17] - ST Huluwawa and its chairman are under investigation for information disclosure violations [17] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 34 companies will have lock-up shares released this week, amounting to 3.697 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 58.895 billion yuan [18] - The peak lock-up expiration date is December 30, with 13 companies releasing shares worth a total of 27.645 billion yuan [18] Institutional Outlook - CITIC Securities highlights that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with a focus on communication and resource-related ETFs [25] - Guojin Securities identifies new investment themes emerging in 2026, emphasizing the importance of AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing [26] - Zhongtai Securities believes there is still upward potential in the market before the Spring Festival, with opportunities for low-cost positioning [27]
财政部重磅发声:多渠道增加居民收入
Wind万得· 2025-12-28 04:37
全国财政工作会议 12 月 27 日至 28 日在北京召开,财政部释放重磅政策信号。 财政部部长蓝佛安表示,明年将促进居民就业增收:统筹就业补助资金、失业保险基金等各类资金,引导支持企业稳岗扩岗、重点群体就业创业等; 积 极发挥税收、社会保障、转移支付等调节作用,多渠道增加居民收入。 据新华社报道,此次 全国财政工作会议 指出, 2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子,确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工 具组合,更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能,增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构,强化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协 同,放大政策效能。 会议要求, 2026 年财政工作抓好以下重点任务 : 坚持内需主导,支持建设强大国内市场。大力提振消费,深入实施提振消费专项行动。积极扩大有效投资,加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域 投入。加快推进全国统一大市场建设,规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 支持科技创新和产业创新深度融合,加快培育壮大新动能。进一步增加财政科技投入,完善财政科技经费管理,强化企业科技创新主体地位。实 施制造 业重点产业链高质量发展行动,开展新一批制造业新型 ...
投顾周刊:LOF集体狂欢后资金炒作退潮
Wind万得· 2025-12-27 22:20
Group 1 - Offshore RMB against USD broke the 7 mark, reaching a 15-month high at 6.9985 on December 25, with onshore RMB also nearing the 7 mark at 7.0053, indicating a potential continued appreciation of the RMB in the coming year, though not expected to be unilateral [2][4] - After a surge in LOF funds, a significant decline was observed on December 25, with multiple LOF funds hitting the limit down, including a drop of over 9% for several gold-related LOFs, leading to restrictions on subscriptions for various funds [2][4] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau released a unified information disclosure management method for asset management products, which aims to standardize disclosure rules across different types of financial products, enhancing investor protection [3][4] Group 2 - JD.com announced that 92% of its employees will receive year-end bonuses, with total bonus investment increasing by over 70% year-on-year, indicating a significant rise in compensation within the industry [4] - A new QDII fund is set to be launched by Dacheng Fund, with the issuance period from December 29 to February 4, amidst a scarcity of new QDII quotas affecting the issuance of such funds [4][5] Group 3 - The U.S. economy showed a substantial growth in Q3 with a real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3%, driven by strong consumer spending which accelerated to a growth rate of 3.5% [6][4] - Recent trends in global stock markets showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.88% and the Hang Seng Index by 0.50%, while U.S. markets also saw gains [7][4] Group 4 - Recent data indicated a decline in Chinese government bond yields, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields dropping by 9.5 basis points, 4.14 basis points, and 0.82 basis points respectively [9][10] - The recent week saw a general increase in fund indices, with the Wande All Fund Index rising by 1.43%, and specific categories like equity and mixed funds showing stronger performance [11][4] Group 5 - In the commodity market, precious metals saw significant gains, with COMEX gold rising by 3.98% and silver by 18.06%, while oil prices experienced a slight increase [12][4] - The dominance of fixed-income plus funds in bank financing products was highlighted, with 384 such funds accounting for 56.31% of the total number and 74.07% of the total scale [13][14] Group 6 - The trend of bank wealth management subsidiaries becoming the core financing entities reflects a concentration and specialization in China's banking system, with regional banks remaining active but limited in scale [15][4] - The recent issuance of wealth management products showed a strong performance in benchmark yields, with leading wealth management subsidiaries achieving higher returns [20][4]
基金研究周报:权益基金表现强劲,债基稳中有升(12.22-12.26)
Wind万得· 2025-12-27 22:20
Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend last week, with major indices rising, particularly the CSI 500 and ChiNext 50, which increased by 4.03% and 4.07% respectively, indicating active performance in small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, while the CSI 300 increased by 1.95%, reflecting steady growth in large-cap blue-chip stocks [2] - The CSI Dividend Index, representing value stocks, saw a modest increase of only 0.55%, highlighting ongoing structural differentiation in the market, favoring growth and small-cap stocks [2] Industry Performance - Most sectors in the Wande primary industry index rose last week, with Materials (+5.85%) and Information Technology (+4.36%) leading the gains, benefiting from policy support and improved industry sentiment [12] - Consumer Discretionary (-0.65%) and Communication Services (-0.34%) experienced slight pullbacks, indicating continued weakness in the consumer sector [12] - The market is shifting towards high-growth manufacturing and technology sectors [12] Fund Issuance - A total of 52 funds were issued last week, including 18 equity funds, 15 mixed funds, 13 bond funds, and 6 FOFs, with a total issuance of 27.894 billion units [18] Fund Performance - The Wande All-Fund Index rose by 1.43% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 2.55% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 2.68%, indicating strong performance in equity funds [7] - The bond fund index saw a slight increase of 0.17%, while equity funds showed robust growth [7] Global Market Review - The U.S. stock market exhibited a "Christmas rally," with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rising by 1.40%, 1.20%, and 1.22% respectively, indicating strong performance in global equity markets [4] - Commodity markets saw significant gains, with natural gas leading at a 10.54% increase, and gold rising by 3.98%, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and inflationary risks [4] - The U.S. economic momentum is weakening, leading to market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with the dollar index declining by approximately 0.68% to 98.03 [4]
陆家嘴财经早餐2025年12月28日星期日
Wind万得· 2025-12-27 22:20
Group 1 - The 2026 National People's Congress will convene on March 4 and 5, with the agenda including the review of the 15th Five-Year Plan draft [3][4] - From January to November, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 66,268.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while November saw a 13.1% decline in profits compared to the previous year [3] Group 2 - The National People's Congress passed a revised Foreign Trade Law, effective from March 1, 2026, which includes provisions for aligning with international trade rules and promoting new trade models [4] - The total number of ETFs in the market reached 1,391, with a total scale of 6.03 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 354.52 billion yuan [6] Group 3 - At least 10 commercial space companies have initiated IPO processes, with five focusing on launch vehicles [6] - Since November, 95 companies related to the satellite industry have disclosed significant financing activities, with an overall financing balance of 690.55 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 45% compared to the previous year [7] Group 4 - The robot industry index has increased by 33.5% this year, with a high concentration of humanoid robots in the index components [8] - The market for elderly care products in China is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024 [10] Group 5 - The State Tobacco Monopoly Administration reported that since the regulation of e-cigarettes, nearly 20,000 administrative cases have been handled, with over 15 billion yuan involved [11] - The establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence was announced, focusing on key technologies and safety standards [12]
乔布斯最被低估的身份,99%的人都不知道!
Wind万得· 2025-12-27 00:00
2007年,旧金山莫斯康中心 乔布斯最被低估的身份 99%的人都不知道! 苹果要重新发明手机" 当穿着黑色高领衫的男人掏出"玻璃板"时,全 场寂静。他说: "今天,苹果要重新发明手 机。"台下的质疑,他置若罔闻。 乔布斯知道,他卖的不是手机,而是未来图景 -- 这是他魅力的巅峰! 乔布斯的销售艺术精髓 共启"愿景"与"信仰" 将产品功能升维为情感共鸣与未来价值 极致的故事力 引领而非追随,定义需求而非响应需求。 (O) 简化,再简化 至繁归于至简。 pr 对产品绝对自信 真正的自信源于对产品价值的深刻理解。 在万得, 我们同样坚信: 顶尖的销售是 价值的布道者! 我们需要的,正是 深谙乔布斯式精髓的 用故事构建认知,让用户主动代入并渴望拥有。 创造需求而非满足需求 https://www.wind.com.cn 速递简历至万得招聘官网 ● 方式二 (扫码闪电投) 长按识别二维码,一键抢占席位 销售精英! 即刻行动 ● 方式一 (官网直通车) ...