特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 工业品链条：半钢胎开工率处于五年同期高位 （1）本周主要大宗商品价格表现：冷轧、铜、铝价格环比-0.81%、+0.87%、-0.30%，对应的毛利环比变 化-22.72%、亏损环比-18.19%、-1.15%；（2）本周全国半钢胎开工率为73.86%，环比-4.39个百分点。 细分品种：钨精矿价格创2011年以来新高水平，氧化铝价格创近2个月来新高 （1）石墨电极：超高功率18000元/吨，环比+0.00%，综合毛利润为1357.4元/吨，环比-11.46%；（2）电 解铝价格为20180元/吨，环比-0.30%，测算利润为2411元/吨（不含税），环比-1.15%；（3）预焙阳极本 周价格为5330元/吨，环比+0.00%； ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of market performance, highlighting the positive returns of certain factors while noting the underperformance of others, indicating a mixed market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in specific sectors [3][4][5]. Factor Performance Summary - In the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025, the beta factor and momentum factor achieved positive returns of 0.58% and 0.31% respectively, while the size factor and liquidity factor recorded negative returns of -0.66% and -0.37% [3]. - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors included total asset growth rate (2.23%), quarterly revenue growth rate (1.78%), and quarterly ROA (1.58%), while the worst-performing factors were net profit gap (-0.36%), 5-day average turnover rate (-0.51%), and price-to-book ratio factor (-0.64%) [4]. - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the top factors were quarterly net profit growth rate (1.54%), quarterly operating profit growth rate (1.29%), and quarterly ROE (1.28%), with the weakest factors being 6-day transaction amount standard deviation (-0.95%), TTM price-to-earnings ratio reciprocal (-0.95%), and 6-day transaction amount moving average (-0.97%) [4]. - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the leading factors were total asset growth rate (2.67%), quarterly ROA growth (2.15%), and quarterly revenue growth (2.13%), while the lagging factors included TTM price-to-earnings ratio reciprocal (-0.65%), price-to-book ratio factor (-0.80%), and price-to-earnings ratio factor (-0.81%) [4]. Industry-Specific Factor Performance - The net asset growth rate factor performed well in the telecommunications industry, while the net profit growth rate factor excelled in the commercial trade sector [5]. - The earnings per share factor showed strong performance in the telecommunications industry, and the TTM operating profit per share factor was notable in both telecommunications and commercial trade sectors [5]. - The 5-day momentum factor exhibited significant momentum effects in the light manufacturing industry, while reversal effects were prominent in the defense, coal, and comprehensive industries [5]. Combination Tracking - The PB-ROE-50 combination achieved significant excess returns across various stock pools, with excess returns of 0.45% in the CSI 500 pool, 1.87% in the CSI 800 pool, and 3.35% in the overall market pool [7]. - The public fund research selection strategy and private fund research tracking strategy both yielded positive excess returns, with the public fund strategy outperforming the CSI 800 by 3.37% and the private fund strategy by 1.31% [8]. - The block trading combination also achieved excess returns relative to the CSI All Index, with an excess return of 0.41% [9]. - The targeted issuance combination outperformed the CSI All Index with an excess return of 1.97% [10].

Group 1: Pork Market - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China decreased to 14.05 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decline of 2.90% [2] - The average price of 15 kg piglets fell to 34.51 yuan/kg, down 2.38% week-on-week [2] - The market sentiment is weak due to sluggish post-holiday consumption demand and low demand for large pigs, leading to a continued strong supply and weak demand scenario [2] Group 2: Poultry Market - The price of white feather broilers is 7.32 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, while chick prices are at 2.84 yuan/bird, a decrease of 1.05% [3] - The increase in frozen chicken inventory has reduced the purchasing enthusiasm of slaughter enterprises, resulting in a weak price for broilers [3] - The decline in broiler prices, combined with high summer temperatures, has led to a slowdown in orders for chicks [3] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The average spot price of corn increased to 2387.84 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.34% week-on-week, while soybean meal and wheat prices fell by 1.50% and 0.86%, respectively [4] - The supply of corn is tight in North China, but the new wheat harvest is putting pressure on the corn market [4] - The soybean meal supply is ample due to high production expectations from Argentina and the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [4] Group 4: Natural Rubber Market - The domestic natural rubber futures price is 13695 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.05% [5] - Supply disruptions due to weather conditions are expected to recover, but the overall market sentiment remains weak due to limited demand growth [5] - The production capacity utilization rate of tire companies is lower than the same period last year, indicating weak demand [5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volatile upward trend during the week of June 3-6, 2025, with small-cap stocks outperforming larger indices [3] - Major indices showed the following weekly performance: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.13%, SSE 50 up 0.38%, CSI 300 up 0.88%, CSI 500 up 1.60%, CSI 1000 up 2.10%, ChiNext Index up 2.32%, and Northbound 50 Index up 1.30% [3] Valuation Insights - As of June 6, 2025, the ChiNext Index is classified as "safe" in terms of valuation percentile, while other major indices are considered "moderate" [3] - In the CITIC industry classification, sectors such as building materials, light industry manufacturing, electric equipment and new energy, defense and military, textiles and apparel, computers, and comprehensive finance are rated as "dangerous" in valuation percentile [3] Fund Flow Analysis - Institutional focus this week was on top five stocks: Tianzhun Technology (389 institutions), Zhongkong Technology (312), Huichuan Technology (205), Huace Testing (204), and Huali Group (151) [5] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 14.928 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect recording a net inflow of HKD 15.957 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect showing a net outflow of HKD 1.029 billion [5] - Stock ETFs had a median return of 1.32% with a net outflow of CNY 2.559 billion, while Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of 2.40% with a net outflow of HKD 3.716 billion [5] Market Sentiment - The current market is characterized by cautious trading signals, with volume timing indicators for major indices remaining in a cautious stance as of June 6, 2025 [4] - The trading theme remains unclear, with rapid rotation of themes observed during the week, indicating a need for stronger capital support for further upward movement [3]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 （1）截至6月6日，秦皇岛港口煤炭库存655 万吨，环比-2.96%，同比+34.22%，处于同期高位水平； 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 煤价延续平稳，波动或将缩窄 （1）中煤能源近日接受机构调研时就动力煤价格走势指出，目前动力煤价格已接近底部，后续有望进一 步企稳；（2）6月4日，国务院副总理丁薛祥在山西调研时指出，要加强迎峰度夏期间能源保供，推动电 煤市场平稳运行，确保民生及重要用户用电供应安全稳定；（3）从基本面角度来看，当前港口库存压力 有所缓解，近两周煤价基本稳定，供需矛盾并不突出，预计后续煤价仍将延续平稳，波动或将缩窄。 本周港口煤价小幅下跌，海外油价反弹 （1）本周（6.2-6.6）秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓价（5500大卡周度平均值）为609元 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation state due to intertwined internal and external factors, with short-term external risks potentially having peaked [3] - Domestic policies remain proactive, and it is anticipated that these policies will continue to be implemented, supporting economic recovery [3] - The export sector is expected to maintain high growth in the short term, while consumption will be a key driver of economic recovery [3] Group 2: Financial Engineering Insights - A-shares showed a fluctuating upward trend, with small-cap stocks outperforming [4] - The market is currently in a low-volume range, and there is a cautious signal from the volume timing indicators [4] - There has been a noticeable net outflow from stock ETFs, indicating profit-taking behavior among investors [4] Group 3: Quantitative Analysis - The market continues to exhibit significant small-cap characteristics, with the PB-ROE combination yielding an excess return of 3.35% [5] - Public and private fund strategies have outperformed the CSI 800 index, achieving excess returns of 3.37% and 1.31%, respectively [5] - The directed issuance combination has also outperformed the CSI All Index by 1.97% [5] Group 4: Oil and Gas Sector - The "Three Oil Giants" are expected to maintain high capital expenditures and focus on increasing reserves and production, with planned growth rates of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% for 2025 [6] - The companies are enhancing independent innovation to tackle critical technologies in the petrochemical sector, aiming for high-quality development and a green transition [6] Group 5: Agriculture and Livestock - The pig farming sector is experiencing short-term pressure on prices due to high inventory levels, but policies are driving a reduction in inventory [7] - The industry is expected to enter a long-term profit upcycle once the inventory reduction phase concludes [7] Group 6: Coal Industry - Coal prices are stabilizing, with expectations of reduced volatility in the near future [8] - Recent insights from China Coal Energy indicate that thermal coal prices are nearing the bottom, with a potential for further stabilization [8] - The government is focused on ensuring energy supply stability during peak summer demand periods [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery due to increased risk appetite, with the ChiNext index leading the gains at 2.3% while the Shanghai 50 index saw the smallest increase of 0.4% [3] Market Performance - The overall A-share market experienced a divergence this week, with major indices generally rising. The valuation of the entire A-share market is currently at a medium level historically since 2010 [3] - The communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors performed relatively well, with respective increases of 5.3%, 3.7%, and 3.6%. In contrast, the household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation sectors saw declines of 1.8%, 1.1%, and 0.5% [3] Domestic and External Factors - Recent domestic events include the launch of the "Service Consumption Season" by the Ministry of Commerce and the deployment of policies for the 2025 New Energy Vehicles initiative. Externally, significant events include a phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump, and the SEC tightening regulations on foreign companies listed in the U.S. [4] - The domestic economy remains stable, supported by growth policies, which are expected to provide a cushion for the market. Despite potential market fluctuations, supportive funds are likely to flow into the stock market to stabilize it [4] Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation phase, with external risks potentially limiting further upward movement. The current level of the Shanghai index is near the points seen in early April, making upward breakthroughs challenging [5] - Short-term external risks may have peaked, but vigilance regarding Trump's policy changes is necessary. Domestic policies are expected to continue to be implemented, with consumption remaining a key driver of economic recovery [5] Investment Focus - Attention should be given to three main lines of investment: 1. Domestic consumption, with a focus on home goods, food processing, professional services, and leisure foods, as policies to expand domestic demand are expected to catalyze growth [6] 2. Domestic substitution, focusing on industries with high import ratios from the U.S. and strong domestic supply capabilities, such as publishing and building materials, as well as sectors like aerospace equipment and medical devices that are expected to improve domestic supply [6] Fund Allocation - The "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" may have a profound impact on fund allocation, with sectors currently underweight by funds, such as banking, non-bank financials, public utilities, and transportation, being worth attention in the medium to long term [7]

点击注册小程序 2025 年以来地缘政治局势不确定性较强，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑战。" 三桶油"将继续维持高资本开 支，大力推进"增储上产"， 2025 年计划分别增长 1.6% 、 1.3% 、 5.9% 。 （ 1 ）中国石油 聚焦重点盆地重点 地区加大风险勘探力度，把天然气业务作为战略性、成长性和价值性工程大力发展， 2024 年天然气产量占油 气当量产量的 54.4% ，持续推动非常规油气勘探突破与规模建产。 （ 2 ）中国石化 将加快攻克深层超深层油 气等核心技术，实现勘探大突破、油气稳增长、盈亏平衡点持续下降，促进上游业务的可持续发展。 （ 3 ） 中国海油 在国内推动新油田上产和老油田稳产， 2025 年已有番禺 10/11 区块联合开发项目、东方 29-1 气田开 发项目、渤中 26-6 油田开发项目（一期）等多项目投产。 坚持自主创新强化科技攻关，谋求高质量发展 " 三桶油 " 加强自主创新，大力攻关石油化工领域的 " 卡脖子 " 技术，推动公司实现高质量发展。 中国石油 制定创新任务时间表，确定 2025 年至本世纪中叶的四阶段发展目标， 2024 年，中国石油取得深地钻探关键技 术、 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 转债价格的均值为121.66元（上周为120.19元），分位值为81.3%（上周为72.9%）； 转债平价的均值为93.22元（上周为92.52元），分位值为65.9%（上周为61.5%）； 转债转股溢价率的均值为29.8%（上周为30.3%），分位值为59.9%（上周为60.9%）；其中，中平价（转 股价值为90至110元之间）可转债的转股溢价率为24.2%（上周为23.4%），高于2018年以来中平价转债转 股溢价率的中位数（19.8%）。 3、可转债表现和配置方向 本周转债市场继续回暖，本周中证转债指数录得+1.1%涨幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts and liquidity management, on the banking sector and financial markets, indicating a stable liquidity environment despite potential pressures on deposit rates and interbank market dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The probability of further monetary policy easing in the short term is low, with the central bank maintaining a "not too loose, not too tight" stance, as economic conditions show improvement [2][3]. - As of June 5, the central bank's net withdrawal of base currency through open market operations (OMO) reached 515.6 billion, indicating a controlled liquidity environment [2]. - The overall liquidity in the banking system is expected to remain neutral and slightly loose, with no significant tightening anticipated at the end of the month [2]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - The 7-day OMO rate was reduced by 10 basis points to 1.4%, influencing the pricing of other short-term instruments like the 3-month and 6-month reverse repos and 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) [4]. - The interbank market interest rates are expected to experience increased volatility in June, following historical seasonal trends [4]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - In May, the overall trend for interbank CD rates was a downward fluctuation, with an average rate of 1.69%, down 9 basis points from April [6]. - The supply of CDs decreased in May, but large banks maintained their issuance strength, while demand from broad-based funds for CD allocations increased [6]. - For June, it is anticipated that CD rates will stabilize with upper and lower limits, despite significant maturity pressures [6]. Group 4: Bank Behavior and Market Impact - The behavior of commercial banks at the end of June will significantly influence liquidity and bond investment, particularly due to seasonal loan and deposit dynamics [7]. - Increased loan issuance is expected as banks respond to end-of-quarter assessments, while deposit growth is anticipated to improve due to various factors [7].