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【光大研究每日速递】20250608
光大证券研究· 2025-06-07 13:22
Group 1: Macro Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May exceeded market expectations, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, indicating a robust job market [3] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw an increase of 48,000 jobs, up from 29,000 in the previous month, contributing significantly to the stability of the employment data [3] - The steady non-farm data reinforces the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach, with market expectations suggesting no rate cuts in June and the first potential cut in September [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The convertible bond market continued to recover, with the China Convertible Bond Index recording a 1.1% increase for the week, and a 4.7% rise year-to-date [4] - The performance of the convertible bond market has outpaced the equity market, with the overall index showing a 1.8% change [4] - Key factors influencing the convertible bond market include trade negotiations, fundamentals, and macro policies, with a focus on sectors that boost domestic demand and domestic substitution [4] Group 3: REITs Market - The secondary market prices for publicly listed REITs in China showed an upward trend, with the weighted REITs index closing at 142.42 and a weekly return of 1.74% [5] - The return rates of major asset classes ranked from highest to lowest are: crude oil, convertible bonds, gold, REITs, A-shares, U.S. stocks, and pure bonds [5] - There was a total net inflow of 9.05 million yuan into the market, indicating increased trading enthusiasm [5] Group 4: Liquidity Outlook - In June, credit issuance is expected to increase seasonally, with government bonds maintaining a certain level of issuance intensity [7] - The interbank liquidity is anticipated to remain in a neutral and slightly loose state, with a low probability of tightening at the end of the quarter [7] - Factors such as loan surges, government bond issuance, and the maturity of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) may lead to increased volatility in DR rates compared to May [7]
【宏观】非农数据高于预期,美联储或更偏观望——2025年5月美国非农数据点评兼光大宏观周报(2025-06-07)(高瑞东)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-07 13:22
事件: 2025年6月6日,美国劳工部公布2025年5月非农数据:新增非农就业13.9万人,预期13.0万人,前值由17.7 万人修正为14.7万人;5月失业率4.2%,预期4.2%,前值4.2%;平均时薪同比升3.9%,预期升3.7%,前值 由升3.8%修正至升3.9%。 核心观点: 2025年5月美国新增就业高于市场预期,缓和经济衰退担忧。5月非农就业人口增13.9万人,高于市场预期 的增13.0万人,失业率也稳定在4.2%,显示美国就业市场相对稳健。其中,5月底美国迎来阵亡将士纪念 日,拉动出行需求,休闲酒店业新增就业升至+4.8万人,高于前值的+2.9万人,是5月就业数据保持稳定的 主要贡献项。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户,用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便, 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 2025年5月劳动参 ...
【固收】REITs二级市场价格上涨,新增一只能源类产品申报——REITs周度观察(20250603-20250606)(张旭)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-07 13:22
Market Overview - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs in China showed an upward trend during the week of June 3-6, 2025, with a weighted REITs index closing at 142.42 and a weekly return of 1.74% [2] - In comparison to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked from highest to lowest are: crude oil, convertible bonds, gold, REITs, A-shares, US stocks, and pure bonds [2] - Among different project attributes, both property-type REITs and concession-type REITs experienced overall price increases, with concession-type REITs showing a larger increase [2] - The municipal facilities REITs had the highest increase in returns, followed by transportation infrastructure and water conservancy facilities [2] Individual REIT Performance - A total of 54 REITs increased in value while 12 decreased during the week, with the top three gainers being China Merchants Highway REIT, Huatai Jiangsu Transportation REIT, and Ping An Ningbo Transportation REIT [2] - The total trading volume for publicly offered REITs was 2.09 billion yuan, with water conservancy facilities REITs leading in average daily turnover rate [2] - The average daily turnover rate for all listed REITs was 0.67% during the week [2] Trading Activity - The top three REITs by trading volume were Huaxia Hefei High-tech REIT, Bosera Shekou Industrial Park REIT, and Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT [3] - The top three REITs by trading value were Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT, CICC Anhui Transportation REIT, and Guojin China Railway Construction REIT [3] - The total net inflow from major investors was 9.05 million yuan, indicating increased market trading enthusiasm, with the top three asset types for net inflow being transportation infrastructure, park infrastructure, and water conservancy facilities [3] Bulk Trading - The total amount of bulk trading reached 123.93 million yuan, showing an increase from the previous week, with four trading days featuring bulk transactions [3] - The highest single-day bulk trading amount was 38.25 million yuan on June 4, 2025 [3] - The top three REITs by bulk trading value were CICC Yinyi Consumption REIT, Huaxin Zhangjiang Industrial Park REIT, and CICC Shandong Expressway REIT [3] Primary Market - No new REIT products were launched during the week [5] - As of the end of the week, there were 28 REITs awaiting listing, including 16 for initial issuance and 12 for expansion [5]
【石化化工交运】环保趋严,氯虫苯甲酰胺提价——石化化工交运行业日报第74期(20250605)(赵乃迪/胡星月)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-06 14:09
特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 受政策及监管的影响,我国的农药产品结构不断优化 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 ST红太阳上调氯虫苯甲酰胺价格,氯虫苯甲酰胺成本端支撑偏强 友道化学的工厂爆炸将影响氯虫苯甲酰胺原药的短期供应,从而有望推升价格。此外,目前氯虫苯甲酰胺的上 游中间体K胺市场供应紧缺,氯虫苯甲酰胺的成本端支撑偏强。根据百川盈孚数据,5月30日,氯虫苯甲酰胺 市场部分成交价格参考23万元/吨,相较5月29日的涨幅为2.22%。25年6月5日,ST红太阳发布调价函,称由于 上游原材料供应受限,主要原材料货紧价扬,导致公司氯虫苯甲酰胺成本急剧上升,受此影响,97%氯虫苯甲 酰胺产品价格调整至30万元/吨,限量供应。行业产能布局方面,ST红太阳具有年产2000吨氯虫苯甲酰胺的产 能,另有 ...
【中简科技(300777.SZ)】拟投建高性能碳纤维产品项目,碳纤维需求持续向好——事件点评(赵乃迪/胡星月)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-06 14:09
Core Viewpoint - The company plans to invest 1.402 billion yuan in a high-performance carbon fiber project, aiming for an annual production capacity of 2,000 tons, with a projected annual revenue of 158.8 million yuan and a net profit of 77.374 million yuan upon reaching full capacity in the seventh year [2][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project will utilize self-owned funds to construct a high-performance carbon fiber production facility, with a total investment of 1.402 billion yuan and a construction period of 3 years [2][3]. - The project aims to produce T700 grade and above high-strength carbon fibers, addressing the growing market demand and expanding the company's production capacity [3][4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Growth - The demand for carbon fiber is expected to grow significantly, with global demand projected at 156,100 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, and the aerospace and military sectors accounting for 26,400 tons of this demand [5]. - In China, the total demand for carbon fiber is anticipated to reach 84,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.7%, with the aerospace and military sectors demanding 9,000 tons [5]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - The company has achieved advanced performance levels in its aerospace-grade carbon fibers, surpassing international standards, and has successfully transitioned from imitation to independent innovation in key materials for aviation [4]. - The expansion of production capacity is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge, particularly in high-end applications within the aerospace sector [4].
研选 | 光大研究每周重点报告20250531-20250606
光大证券研究· 2025-06-06 14:09
特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 发布日期: 2 0 2 5 / 0 6 / 0 3 分析师: 姜浩, 孙未未,朱洁宇 市场观点纷繁芜杂,光大研究荟萃本周重点报告,涵盖总量、行业、公司研究,为您筛选有价值的 声音。 每周六早8点,"研选"助您快速厘清投资"点线面"! 公司研究 百尺竿头更进一步,从单品牌单平台向多品牌全渠道集团化蜕变——上美股份(2145.HK)投资价值 分析报告 上美股份2 2年于港股上市,旗下拥有韩束、一叶子、红色小象、一页等多品牌。其中主品牌韩 束为2 4年线上GMV美妆国货品牌第二名、头部美妆品牌增速第一名。公司抓住了抖音平台的发 展机遇,2 3~2 4年业绩高增长。韩束主品牌提质增长,一页等小品牌构建多条增长曲线。 摘 自 : 百 尺 竿 头 ...
【固收】二级市场价格震荡上行,多只REITs产品等待上市——REITs月度观察(20250501-20250531)(张旭)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-05 13:36
Group 1 - As of May 31, 2025, the number of public REITs in China reached 66, with a total issuance scale of 174.39 billion yuan, primarily in transportation infrastructure and park infrastructure [2] - The weighted REITs index closed at 139.99 with a monthly return of 3.71%, outperforming A-shares, gold, and crude oil [3] - The top three asset types with the highest returns were affordable housing, warehousing logistics, and consumer-related REITs [3] Group 2 - The total trading volume of public REITs decreased compared to the previous month, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.65% [4] - The total net inflow of main funds reached 10.056 million yuan, indicating a decline in market trading enthusiasm [4] - The total amount of block trades decreased month-on-month, with a total of 1.12 billion yuan in block trades during the month [5]
【古茗(1364.HK)】全品类货架型品牌,“结硬寨”践行长期主义——投资价值分析报告(陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-05 13:36
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 古茗深耕现制茶饮十余年,从浙江走向全国。截至24年底,公司在全国17个省份覆盖超过200个城市,共 有9914家门店,主要分布于二线、三线及更低线城市。古茗是中国最大的大众现制茶饮店品牌,亦是全价 格带下中国第二大现制茶饮店品牌。2023年古茗平均季度复购率高达53%,门店经营利润率约20%,均领 先行业。 行业下沉市场空间大,供应链打造核心竞争力 根据灼识咨询数据,按GMV统计,2024年中国现制饮品行业拥有超过6000亿元的市场规模,其中现制茶 饮行业规模最大(超过3000亿元),现制咖啡行业增速较快(24-28年CAGR预计为18.5%)。按城市线级 划分来看,低线市场具有更大的增长潜力,预计三线及以下城市24-28年CAGR均超过20%。按价格带划分 来看,大众价格带产品增长势头最好,预计24-28年CAGR为20.8%。从企业各项能力看,供应链为最核心 的竞争力。 供应链优势和独特渠道策略,公司快速成长为行业第二大品牌 茶饮市场竞争激烈,古茗避开一二线城市的激烈竞争,将目光投向三线及以下城市、乡镇城郊和县域市 场。其强大的加盟体系成为下沉的关键动力,加盟商较 ...
【光大研究每日速递】20250606
光大证券研究· 2025-06-05 13:36
Group 1 - The number of public REITs in China reached 66, with a total issuance scale of 174.39 billion yuan as of May 31, 2025 [4] - The weighted REITs index closed at 139.99 with a monthly return rate of 3.71%, outperforming A-shares, gold, pure bonds, and crude oil [4] - The return rates of major asset classes are ranked as follows: US stocks > convertible bonds > REITs > A-shares > gold > pure bonds > crude oil [4] Group 2 - The SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) policy in Europe is set to require a mandatory 2% addition, which is expected to drive price increases in related products [5] - Domestic channels for exporting bio-aviation fuel have been successfully established, indicating promising future development [5] Group 3 - The company Guming has expanded its presence to over 200 cities across 17 provinces in China, with a total of 9,914 stores, making it the largest mass-market fresh tea drink brand in the country [6] - Guming has achieved an average quarterly repurchase rate of 53% and a store operating profit margin of approximately 20%, both leading the industry [6] Group 4 - NIO reported a total revenue of 12.04 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38.9% [8] - The gross margin for NIO was 7.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.1 percentage points [8] - The Non-GAAP net loss for NIO expanded by 28.2% year-on-year to 6.28 billion yuan, although it narrowed by 4.2% quarter-on-quarter [8]
【石化化工交运】2025年欧美SAF政策落地,国内SAF出口渠道顺利打通——行业日报73期(0604)(赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/胡星月)
光大证券研究· 2025-06-05 13:36
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing application and demand for biodiesel, particularly in transportation and aviation sectors, driven by environmental policies and technological advancements [2][3]. Group 1: Biodiesel Development - Biodiesel is recognized for its environmental benefits, good engine performance, and renewable nature, making it crucial for sustainable economic development and energy transition [2]. - The application of biodiesel is expanding beyond road transport to include maritime and aviation sectors, with significant potential for growth [2]. - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that by 2050, 65% of emissions reductions in aviation will come from the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [2]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is promoting the development of non-grain biomass liquid fuels, including biodiesel and biojet fuel, as part of its "3060" carbon neutrality strategy [2]. - The EU mandates that by 2025, at least 2% of aviation fuel supplied at EU airports must be SAF, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, which is expected to drive demand for SAF [3]. - The export volume of kitchen waste oil in China is projected to grow from 730,000 tons in 2019 to 2.78 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 23% [3]. Group 3: Industry Developments - The approval of a "white list" for biojet fuel exports in Jiangsu province marks a significant step for China's biojet fuel industry, allowing for international market access [4]. - The company Jiangsu Jiaao has the capacity to produce 372,400 tons of biojet fuel annually, which can now be exported under the new regulations [4]. - The establishment of export channels is expected to create competitive advantages for leading technology firms in the biojet fuel sector [4].