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关于「通证化」:一场外滩大会带来的随想
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-12 11:38
Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council's proposal to launch a physical gold-backed digital token in London aims to revolutionize the trading, settlement, and collateralization of gold, injecting new vitality into the $930 billion global physical gold trading center, marking a significant experiment in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) [3][4]. Group 1: Token Economy Exploration - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal point for the token economy, with the U.S. government supporting tokenization innovation and regulatory bodies like the SEC and CFTC gradually establishing a leadership stance in this field [4]. - The Hong Kong government has released the "Digital Asset Development Policy Statement 2.0," encouraging RWA development and aiming to create a clearer regulatory framework for tokenized assets, positioning Hong Kong as a digital asset hub [4]. - Current tokenization efforts are primarily focused on financial assets, but the true mission should be to support real industries rather than merely enhancing financial assets [6][11]. Group 2: Regulatory and Compliance Considerations - The exploration of the token economy must define compliance boundaries, as the industry is still in its early stages, particularly regarding the tokenization of physical assets [5][6]. - Regulatory bodies globally maintain a cautious stance towards "crypto assets," emphasizing the need for compliance and the establishment of clear rules to balance innovation with risk management [13][15]. - The importance of a regulatory framework that encourages the tokenization of real assets while ensuring financial stability and investor protection is highlighted [17][18]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Technological Advancements - The introduction of "Agentic Contracts" by Ant Group, which incorporates AI to enhance smart contracts, represents a significant technological advancement that could facilitate efficient and compliant handling of tokenized assets [7][8]. - The global RWA market has seen rapid growth, increasing from $500 million in 2022 to $25.5 billion by mid-2025, indicating a strong demand for tokenized assets [11]. - The transformation of the global digital asset market is expected to create new applications for the internationalization of the Renminbi and contribute to a diversified global monetary and financial system [16].
银行市值王座,在周期里竞逐
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-12 11:38
Core Viewpoint - The competition between Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) for market capitalization has become a significant event in the banking industry, with ABC briefly surpassing ICBC to become the largest bank by market value [2][3][6]. Market Capitalization Dynamics - On September 4, 2023, ABC's total market capitalization (A+H) exceeded 2.55 trillion yuan, surpassing ICBC [3]. - As of September 11, 2023, ICBC regained its position as the market leader, increasing its lead to 18 billion yuan [4]. - By mid-2025, ICBC is projected to maintain its position as the largest bank by total assets at 52.32 trillion yuan, while ABC ranks second [5]. Historical Context - A decade ago, ABC's market capitalization was less than 70% of ICBC's, highlighting the significant growth of ABC in recent years [6]. - From 2015 to 2017, the rapid expansion of ICBC's market capitalization was driven by favorable policies and economic conditions, while ABC's growth lagged behind [11]. - The period from 2018 to 2019 saw fluctuations in the market capitalizations of the four major banks due to regulatory changes and economic uncertainties [12]. Recent Performance - In 2023, the banking sector began to recover, with ABC's market capitalization increasing by 25%, significantly outpacing ICBC and other peers [14]. - As of September 8, 2025, ABC's year-to-date growth approached 35% [15]. Financial Metrics Comparison - Between 2022 and mid-2025, ABC's asset scale grew by nearly 40%, the highest among the four major banks, while its net interest margin decreased by 0.58 percentage points [20][21]. - ABC's non-performing loan ratio improved by 0.09 percentage points, marking the best optimization among its peers [21]. Strategic Focus - ABC's focus on rural finance has provided a buffer against economic downturns, with nearly 49.1% of its revenue coming from county-level operations by 2024 [26]. - The bank's extensive network of 23,000 county-level branches positions it uniquely to capture growth in rural markets [26]. Economic Environment Impact - The resilience of county markets during economic downturns has benefited ABC, as local residents prioritize savings and exhibit strong repayment willingness [27]. - The emphasis on rural revitalization in national policy has further supported ABC's strategic positioning [29]. Competitive Landscape - While both ABC and ICBC target similar regions for credit deployment, their funding and profit sources differ significantly, with ABC focusing more on rural and less urbanized areas [31][32]. - ICBC's core operations are more concentrated in economically developed regions, which may expose it to greater risks during economic slowdowns [38]. Future Outlook - The narrowing gap in market capitalization between ABC and ICBC does not indicate a decline in ICBC's core business performance, as it continues to excel in key sectors [38]. - The potential for recovery in urban economies could provide ICBC with opportunities for performance and valuation rebound [41].
和高盛相反!大摩:光模块是时候“获利了结”了
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-12 11:38
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the positive fundamentals of the optical module industry have largely been reflected in stock prices after several months of significant increases, leading to rating adjustments for multiple related stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Morgan Stanley suggests that investors should take profits during periods of high market sentiment, as the positive fundamentals are widely recognized and reflected in stock prices [2]. - Since April, stock price increases have been substantial: New Yisheng up 460%, Zhongji Xuchuang up 312%, Tianfu Communication up 269%, and Huagong Technology up 62% [4]. Group 2: Rating Adjustments and Valuation Concerns - Morgan Stanley has made significant rating adjustments, notably downgrading New Yisheng to "Underweight," citing a potential slowdown in growth after a 338% year-on-year performance increase in Q2 2025 [3][10]. - The firm warns that the current valuations of New Yisheng and Tianfu Communication have exceeded historical averages, indicating that the positive fundamentals may have already been partially digested [7]. - The forward P/E ratio for Zhongji Xuchuang has risen from 14x to 24x, while New Yisheng's has increased from 8x to 20x since the beginning of 2025 [7]. Group 3: Future Growth Catalysts - Morgan Stanley views the rapid rollout of 1.6T products as a potential catalyst for growth in the second half of 2025 and 2026, despite delays in the GB300's launch affecting the timeline for 1.6T module shipments [13]. - The demand for 800G modules is expected to remain strong, which will help offset pricing and sales pressures on lower-end optical modules [13].
全球首例!AI出任政府部长
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-12 06:26
据环球网援引路透社等媒体报道,阿尔巴尼亚总理埃迪·拉马当地时间11日宣布新内阁名单,其中包括任 命一个名为"迪埃拉"的人工智能(AI)担任公共采购部长, 阿尔巴尼亚成为世界上第一个任命非实体的 人工智能担任政府部长的国家。 报道称,"迪埃拉"在阿尔巴尼亚语中意为"太阳"。 拉马称,"迪埃拉"是第一位并非以实体方式存在,而是由人工智能生成的以虚拟方式存在的内阁成员。 拉马还称,将有一个专用部门为它提供支持,并推动人工智能在政府各部门的应用,"这不是科幻小说, 而是'迪埃拉'的职责。" ⭐星标华尔街见闻,好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议,不代表 平台 观点,市场有风险,投资需谨慎,请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看,请点"在看" ...
密谋3个月,阿里甩出了王炸
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-11 09:57
以下文章来源于全天候科技 ,作者全天候科技 全天候科技 . 为优质内容而生,帮助投资者理解科技。 作者周智宇 柴旭晨,编辑张晓玲 在烧掉数百亿资金后,美团和抖音都以为,牌桌上只剩下彼此。然而,牌桌一旁,阿里巴巴一直虎视眈眈。 9月10日,阿里26周年庆。一枚11年前由马云亲手布下的棋子——高德地图,被现任CEO吴泳铭猛然激活。它不再甘于只做沉默的导航工具,而是携超11亿真 金白银的补贴,以及一份号称无法刷单的"扫街榜",直接杀到美团与抖音对峙的前线腹地。 这一刻,距离马云斥资近15亿美元买下高德,顶住外界"看不懂"的压力,已经过去了整整十一年。当初那步着眼于未来的闲棋,如今成了搅动整个战局的胜负 手。 高德要争夺的,不仅仅是交易,更是定义下一代消费场景的权力。它也会和淘宝闪购一起,成为阿里重塑本地生活的重要抓手。 这种从根本上改写游戏规则的意图,宣告了那个以狼性与奇袭著称的阿里,正在重返战场中央。 而这一次,它所讲述的故事也已截然不同。阿里将不再仅仅是那个线上的电商帝国,而是一个左手探索AI的数字未来,右手激活实体商业物理世界的双栖巨 头。它的新价值,既在云端的算力,更在地面上每一条街道的活力。 高德亮剑 华 ...
三年收入“翻番”,甲骨文成了“新英伟达”
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-11 09:57
Core Viewpoint - Oracle is transforming from a traditional database company to a core player in the AI infrastructure wave, with explosive growth prospects driven by significant demand for AI computing power from giants like OpenAI [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the recently released Q1 financial report, Oracle boldly predicts its revenue will double in the next three years, positioning itself as the "new Nvidia" in the eyes of investors [2]. - The company's remaining performance obligations (RPO) surged over twofold in three months, reaching $455 billion, with expectations to exceed $500 billion soon due to ongoing negotiations for additional multi-billion dollar contracts [2]. - Oracle anticipates its cloud infrastructure revenue will hit $114 billion by fiscal year 2029, a significant increase from just over $10 billion as of May this year [2]. Stock Market Reaction - Following this news, Oracle's stock price has risen 45% year-to-date and surged 35% on a single day, nearly doubling its price within the year, with a market capitalization approaching $950 billion [3]. Competitive Landscape - Despite the optimistic outlook, making long-term predictions in a rapidly changing technology landscape like AI may not be wise, as competitors like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon do not separately report AI-related revenues [6]. - Oracle's unique position is attributed to its leadership under Chairman Larry Ellison, who is known for his boldness in the tech industry [6][7]. Revenue Conversion Challenges - The key challenge for Oracle lies in converting its RPO into actual revenue, which depends on the company's ability to build the necessary infrastructure to fulfill these contracts, including power, permits, and critical equipment like Nvidia GPUs [10]. - Analysts believe Oracle possesses significant advantages, including top-notch technical expertise, ample funding, and deep support from Nvidia, enabling it to capitalize on the growing demand in AI training and inference [11]. AI Market Dynamics - Oracle's growth is closely tied to the AI inference segment, which is expected to see a substantial increase as the focus shifts from training better models to deploying them to millions of new users [12][13]. - The company's ambitious targets come with challenges, as its forward P/E ratio is around 48, and its future is tightly linked to the sustainability of AI demand, unlike diversified competitors like Microsoft [13].
“暗战”美联储9月议息会议
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-11 09:57
周二晚间, 一名联邦法官批准了对美联储理事Lisa Cook的临时禁令,暂时阻止了特朗普总统将其解职的企图 。这一裁决是Cook本人乃至整个央行独立性的 一次重大法律胜利,它为Cook出席下周的会议并参与投票扫清了道路。 紧接着在周三上午,焦点转移至参议院银行委员会。共和党人火速推进了特朗普提名的顾问Stephen Miran的任命确认程序,试图填补美联储理事会的另一个 空缺席位。此举为本周参议院全院表决创造了可能, 一旦通过,Miran或将得以加入同一场议息会议。 在今年夏季一系列疲软的就业数据公布后,市场普遍预期美联储将在下周的会议上降息25个基点。 Timiraos表示,Cook一贯在政策上与主席鲍威尔保持一致,而Miran是否会投票支持更大幅度的降息尚不明朗。 这场关于与会资格的争夺将决定会议出席情况,它的重要性不仅在于它影响当下的投票结果,更在于与会官员将提交新的季度经济预测,而这份预测将塑造市 场对美联储未来政策路径的预期。 一场围绕美联储控制权的政治角力正趋于白热化,下周的FOMC会议不仅关系到利率决策,更是一场围绕美联储独立性展开的激烈博弈。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick ...
首战即决战——大疆和影石在全景无人机的狭路相逢
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-11 09:57
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging competition in the "panoramic drone" market, particularly between DJI and Insta360, highlighting the technological advancements and market strategies of both companies as they prepare to launch their first products in this new category [1][4][12]. Group 1: Product Development and Features - DJI is reportedly set to launch its first panoramic drone, which is in the final stages before release, indicating a strong market entry [1]. - The new DJI drone is expected to feature the same lens as the recently released Osmo360 camera, along with a rotatable gimbal and a 1-inch image CMOS sensor, showcasing DJI's technical capabilities in panoramic imaging [3]. - The anticipated drone will utilize DJI's mature O4 transmission technology, supporting a transmission distance of up to 13 kilometers, low latency of 24 milliseconds, and 1080p/100fps HD quality, enhancing the user experience [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The next six months will see direct competition between DJI and Insta360 in the panoramic drone market, with both companies expected to launch their products around the same time [4]. - DJI has a significant advantage due to its established global leadership in the drone industry and its extensive technological reserves, positioning it as a key player in defining industry standards for this new category [4][5]. - Insta360, having entered the drone market recently, faces challenges in competing against DJI's comprehensive ecosystem and technological depth [8][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Financials - Insta360 announced its entry into the drone industry on July 23, followed by DJI's launch of the Osmo360 camera, which directly impacted Insta360's pricing strategy [6]. - As of August 14, Insta360 began public testing of its panoramic drone, indicating a proactive approach to market entry, although DJI had already laid the groundwork for its product [7]. - DJI's Osmo360 camera has reportedly sold over 20,000 units within a month of its launch, generating sales exceeding 60 million yuan, demonstrating its strong market presence [9]. Group 4: Technological Barriers and Challenges - The competition between DJI and Insta360 is fundamentally about penetrating each other's core markets, with a focus on the depth of technological barriers and system collaboration capabilities [9][11]. - DJI's extensive experience in drone technology, including flight control systems and safety mechanisms, presents a significant challenge for Insta360 as it attempts to establish itself in this high-barrier industry [10][11]. - The article emphasizes that overcoming these technological challenges will require substantial time, investment, and expertise from Insta360 to compete effectively with DJI [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Both companies are expected to launch their first panoramic drone products within the next six months, which will be critical in determining market leadership [13]. - The disparity in company size and R&D investment is notable, with DJI's projected revenue for 2024 exceeding 80 billion yuan, compared to Insta360's 5.574 billion yuan, which may influence pricing and market strategies [13]. - The article concludes that the winner in the panoramic drone market will likely be the company that can effectively integrate imaging and flight technology to deliver a seamless user experience [12][14].
马斯克,重夺全球首富宝座
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-11 03:34
当地时间10日,甲骨文美股盘初涨幅一度扩大至42%,盘中市值达到9500亿美元,超越摩根大通、沃尔玛、礼来和Visa,成为标普500指数中第10大市值 公司,直追巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦。 由于股价大涨,根据彭博亿万富豪指数,上午10时10分,甲骨文创始人兼董事长埃里森(Larry Ellison) 身家飙升至3930亿美元,一度超越马斯克(3850 亿美元),成为全球首富。 在当天大部分时间里,埃里森的身家位居榜首,不过到当天稍晚,随着甲骨文股价回落到收涨35.91%, 埃里森的身家小幅降至3832亿美元,又回落至第 二位。 马斯克的净资产小幅回升,以约10亿美元的优势重新登顶。 | Rank | Name | Total net worth | $ Last change | $ YTD change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ▶ | | | | 1 | Elon Musk | $384B | +$573M | -$48.2B | | 2 | Larry Ellison | $383B | +$88.5B | +$191B | | 3 | Mark Z ...
巨额订单震撼市场!甲骨文、博通甚至谷歌,都被OpenAI“拉爆”了
华尔街见闻· 2025-09-10 06:32
Core Viewpoint - OpenAI's massive capital expenditures are reshaping Silicon Valley, driving tech giants like Oracle, Broadcom, and Google towards significant growth opportunities through substantial contracts [1][6]. Group 1: Oracle's Major Order - Oracle's stock surged over 27% after announcing a significant cloud infrastructure contract with OpenAI, leading to a remarkable increase in its remaining performance obligations (RPO) to $455 billion, a 359% year-over-year increase [2][8]. - The contract involves providing OpenAI with 4.5 gigawatts of data center capacity, valued at approximately $30 billion annually, as part of the "Stargate" AI infrastructure initiative [9]. - Oracle's CEO raised the capital expenditure forecast for the fiscal year to $35 billion, anticipating a 77% growth in its cloud infrastructure business [9]. Group 2: Broadcom's Custom AI Chips - Broadcom revealed it secured a $10 billion custom AI chip order from a "mysterious client," later confirmed to be OpenAI, which is expected to significantly boost its AI revenue outlook [4][11]. - OpenAI's collaboration with Broadcom aims to design and produce proprietary AI chips to alleviate its dependency on Nvidia and meet its extensive computational needs [11][12]. Group 3: Google's Involvement - Google Cloud has entered a partnership with OpenAI to provide computational support for AI model training, breaking Microsoft's previous exclusive supply arrangement [14]. - Google Cloud's current unfulfilled contract commitments amount to $106 billion, with expectations of at least $58 billion converting to actual revenue in the next two years [13][14]. Group 4: OpenAI's Financial Strategy - OpenAI's projected cash burn could reach $115 billion by 2029, significantly higher than previous estimates, primarily for building infrastructure and training AI models [16][18]. - Despite the high expenditure, OpenAI's valuation has surged to $500 billion, nearly double from six months ago, driven by strong growth in ChatGPT and optimistic revenue forecasts [17][18]. Group 5: Financial Innovations in AI Competition - The intense competition for AI infrastructure has led tech companies to explore complex financial solutions, such as joint ventures and syndicated loans, to manage costs without compromising balance sheet health [19][20]. - Companies like Meta and Oracle are utilizing innovative financing methods to fund their AI infrastructure projects while managing associated risks [20].