Core Viewpoint - OpenAI is planning to participate in the construction of a large AI data center in the UAE, which may become one of the largest data centers globally, as part of its "Stargate" initiative aimed at expanding AI infrastructure worldwide [1][2]. Group 1: OpenAI's Involvement - OpenAI is expected to be a major tenant in a new 5GW data center park in Abu Dhabi, which is part of a broader initiative to support AI development [1]. - The 5GW power capacity planned for the data center park is equivalent to the total output of five nuclear reactors, significantly exceeding the scale of current data center projects announced by OpenAI and its competitors [2]. Group 2: Collaboration and Partnerships - The UAE and the US have agreed to establish a "US-UAE AI Accelerated Partnership" framework, which includes the development of a 1GW AI data center as part of the larger 5GW park [2]. - The partnership aims to deepen technological cooperation, with US companies operating data centers and providing cloud services in the UAE, ensuring strong security measures to prevent technology transfer [2]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman was part of a delegation that accompanied former President Trump on a visit to the UAE, indicating high-level engagement between US tech companies and the UAE [3]. - OpenAI has launched a program called "OpenAI for Countries," aiming to expand the "Stargate" project globally, with plans for ten projects in various countries or regions [4]. - The establishment of the data center in the UAE is contingent on OpenAI's ability to secure sufficient advanced chips from Nvidia, with potential easing of restrictions on chip sales to the UAE being considered by the Trump administration [4].

避免DOGE干预，鲍威尔"先发制人"，宣布计划在未来几年内裁员10%。 据报道，美联储主席鲍威尔在周五（5月16日）发给员工的一份备忘录中表示，" 在接下来的几年里， 我们的整体员工人数将比现在减少大约10% "，将覆盖整个美联储体系，包括华盛顿特区总部和全国12 家地区联储。 这一举措被分析师视为鲍威尔对特朗普政府效率部门可能干预的先发制人，展示了其在政策格局中的政 治敏锐度。EY Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco指出： "从字里行间可以看出，鲍威尔似乎试图通过逐步提高效率和减少美联储董事会员工数量来阻止政府效 率部门对美联储产生任何类型的影响，从而从根本上避免强制性裁员扰乱美联储的活动。" 此外，延期辞职方案面向截至2027年12月31日已完全具备退休资格的理事会员工开放。 根据美联储2023年年报，其系统员工总数为23950人；2024年预算预计将员工人数增至24553人，增长 约2.5%。这意味着10%的裁员将减少近2500人，使美联储的员工总数降至接近十年前的水平。 自2010年以来，美联储员工数量显著增加，与之相比，其他美国大型联邦机构的员工数量则减少了 10%。 鲍威尔的政 ...

在经历了令人印象深刻的反弹之后，投资者们不禁要问，这次市场反弹是否已经结束？ 摩根大通的市场部门负责人Andrew Tyler的回答是：尚未结束。 在最新发布的报告中，Tyler表示， 当前牛市的核心要素仍然存在（宏观数据具有韧性，盈利向好，以及贸易形势缓和），但复苏的速度使得这次上涨成为"最 不受欢迎"的上涨之一，增量买盘主要来自散户投资者和企业。 Tyler还指出，虽然回调的风险正在上升，但再次回调的可能性不大。 集中度风险将加剧对回调风险的担忧，因为这可能与去年上半年的市场类似，主要集中 于大型科技股上， 预计标普500指数本季度应该会触及历史高点（6144点）。 就业和消费数据向好，英伟达有望重回高增长、贸易协议陆续达成…… 摩根大通认为，支撑美股涨势的核心因素在于： 5月的非农数据表明，关税冲击不太可能在5月的数据中显现。 6月份的数据可能只会受到部分影响，因此可能会出现一些意外的上行。 零售销售数据可能不及预期，但仍会推动市场走高，摩根大通的信用卡数据和Visa卡/万事达卡的评论表明 ，随着贸易局势缓和后信心恢复，强劲的消费者可能会 走高。 看好英伟达前景，考虑到本周在中东签署的协议，可以期待盈利 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment activities of Duan Yongping's HH&H International Investment in Q1, highlighting increased holdings in Pinduoduo, Occidental Petroleum, and new positions in Microsoft, Nvidia, and TSMC, while also noting reductions in Apple, Google, and other stocks. Group 1: Increased Holdings - Duan Yongping increased his stake in Pinduoduo by 525,200 shares, a 7.27% increase, bringing total holdings to 7.7539 million shares with a market value exceeding $900 million, making it the third-largest position [3]. - Occidental Petroleum saw an increase of 249,100 shares, a 1.83% rise, with total holdings reaching 13.82 million shares valued at over $680 million, ranking as the fourth-largest position [4]. Group 2: New Positions - New positions were established in Microsoft, Nvidia, and TSMC, all significant players in the AI industry. Microsoft purchased 299,200 shares valued at $112.3 million, Nvidia acquired 645,100 shares worth $69.9 million, and TSMC bought 271,792 shares valued at $45.1 million [3]. Group 3: Reduced Holdings - Apple was reduced by 6.6404 million shares, a 16.25% decrease, with current holdings at 34.22 million shares valued at $7.602 billion, still the largest position [5]. - Alibaba saw a reduction of 146,870 shares, a 26.94% decrease, with current holdings at 3.98 million shares valued at $526 million, ranking fifth [6]. - Google’s Class C shares were reduced by 2.6559 million shares, a significant 70% decrease, with current holdings at 1.11 million shares valued at $170 million [7].

以下文章来源于追风交易台 ，作者追风交易台 追风交易台 . 全球宏观研究、交易、配置，你不能错过 今年上半年，市场见证了一场引人注目的资产重新配置过程：原本在2024年第四季度同步上涨的黄金与比特币，如今已演变为一场"零和博弈"。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通本周在研报中写道，自4月22日黄金价格达到3500美元的峰值后，已下跌近8%，而同期比特币价格上涨了18%。 这种此消彼长的 格局预计将持续至年底，但多项加密货币特有的积极催化因素可能使比特币在下半年表现优于黄金。 资金流向印证黄金与比特币的"翘翘板"效应 摩根大通表示， 最近三周的资产流向数据清晰地展示了这种此消彼长关系。 散户和私人投资者的行为显示，实物黄金和现货ETF出现资金外流，而比特币/加密货币ETF则经历资金流入。期货市场也呈现类似趋势：黄金期货持续下滑， 比特币期货却大幅增长。这与今年2月中旬至4月中旬期间的关税事件相反，当时黄金强势上涨，而比特币与风险资产同步下跌。 2月中旬至4月中旬，黄金上涨是以比特币下跌为代价；而过去三周则出现相反的趋势——比特币上涨伴随着黄金下跌。 "特有的"多重催化剂支撑比特币上涨势头 摩根大通认为，比特币在今年下 ...

根据周四提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的监管文件，"股神"巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦一季度清仓花旗银行（Citigroup），减持美国银行（Bank of America）和第一资本金融公司（Capital One Financial Corp.）的部分持股。 减持银行股、清仓花旗 啤酒制造商持仓翻倍 根据13F文件，伯克希尔出售了14,639,502股花旗集团股票；文件还显示，该公司出售了48,660,056股美国银行股票，减持比例超过7%；截至3月31日，伯克希尔仍 持有超过6.315亿股美国银行股票。 伯克希尔还减持了30万股第一资本金融公司股票，减持比例约为4%。 伯克希尔本季度最大的买入是啤酒制造商星座品牌公司（Constellation Brands Inc.），购入了6,384,676股，持仓增加超过113%，总持股数达到12,009,000股。 此外，该公司加倍持有了泳池设备供应商Pool Corp.。 另外，伯克希尔在第一季度清仓了其持有的Nu Holdings股份，后者运营着巴西数字银行Nubank，清仓规模为4000万股。伯克希尔将其在Liberty Formula One的 投资削减 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group reported strong financial performance for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2025, with a focus on core business growth and shareholder returns [1][5]. Financial Data Summary - Q4 adjusted earnings per ADS were 12.52 RMB, up from 10.14 RMB year-on-year, slightly below the expected 12.71 RMB [3]. - Q4 revenue reached 236.45 billion RMB, a 7% year-on-year increase, but below market expectations of 237.91 billion RMB [7]. - Full-year revenue was 996.35 billion RMB, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth [7]. - Q4 net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.38 billion RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 1203% [7]. - Full-year net profit was 125.98 billion RMB, up 77% year-on-year [7]. Core Business Progress - Taobao Group's revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, with customer management revenue increasing by 12% due to improved take rates [9]. - Alibaba Cloud revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to 30.13 billion RMB, driven by strong AI product adoption [10][11]. - International Digital Commerce Group revenue rose by 24% to 27.60 billion RMB, supported by growth from AliExpress and Trendyol [7]. - Local Services Group revenue grew by 10% to 16.13 billion RMB, driven by increased orders from Ele.me and Gaode [16]. - Cainiao Group's revenue decreased by 12% to 21.57 billion RMB, attributed to the integration of logistics services [17]. Shareholder Returns - In fiscal year 2025, Alibaba repurchased shares worth 11.9 billion USD, reducing the number of outstanding shares by 5.1% [5]. - The board approved a total dividend of 4.6 billion USD, including annual and special dividends [5]. Future Outlook - Alibaba plans to invest over 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years, exceeding the total investment of the past decade [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the South Korean won (KRW) has significant appreciation potential, being undervalued by approximately 12% according to Nomura's model, making it one of the most undervalued currencies among emerging markets and G10 currencies [1][3][4] - The discussion between South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister and the U.S. Treasury Assistant Secretary regarding the USD/KRW market indicates that the Trump administration may favor a weaker dollar, potentially making exchange rates a key topic in upcoming trade negotiations [2][3] - The potential increase in foreign exchange hedging by the National Pension Service (NPS) could lead to a substantial rise in demand for the won, as NPS could raise its foreign exchange hedging ratio to 10% of its overseas investments, which amounts to a potential foreign exchange sale of $49.7 billion [4][5] Group 2 - Basic economic factors also support the appreciation of the won, with various models indicating that the won is persistently undervalued, reinforcing the notion that external pressures are not the only drivers of its potential rise [3][4] - There are risks associated with foreign investment sell-offs or repatriation, as South Korean retail investors have significant overseas investments and may begin to liquidate assets due to concerns over a weakening dollar [5] - The asset management industry in South Korea, with a total asset management scale of $1.3 trillion, may also increase foreign exchange hedging, further contributing to upward pressure on the won [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the quiet shutdown of the Kaola Haigou app, previously known as NetEase Kaola, highlighting its decline in the competitive cross-border e-commerce market, particularly against Tmall International [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Background and History - NetEase Kaola was launched in January 2015, benefiting from favorable cross-border e-commerce policies and leveraging NetEase's ecosystem for customer acquisition [6][8]. - In 2019, NetEase sold Kaola to Alibaba, which rebranded it as Kaola Haigou, but the app has now been taken offline [2][4]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - By Q3 2021, Tmall International held a market share of 37.4%, surpassing Kaola Haigou's 26.0%, indicating a significant shift in competitive dynamics [4]. - In 2021, Kaola Haigou's operational team was drastically reduced from over 400 to just a few, reflecting a lack of confidence in its future [4][11]. Group 3: User Engagement and Performance Metrics - Monthly active users for Kaola Haigou dropped from 7.42 million in July 2020 to 6.44 million by September 2021, with further declines expected [5]. - By late 2022, Kaola Haigou's app ranked 58th in the App Store's shopping category, trailing behind lesser-known competitors [5]. Group 4: Strategic Challenges - Kaola Haigou faced an identity crisis post-acquisition, as it competed directly with Tmall International, leading to overlapping products and services [10]. - The app's marketing costs were higher than Tmall International's, and its user retention was hindered by the need to redirect users from a high-frequency shopping environment (Taobao) to a low-frequency one (Kaola Haigou) [10][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the cross-border e-commerce segment may struggle to sustain independent platforms like Kaola Haigou, as evidenced by the closure of similar businesses [9]. - The success of membership-based models like Sam's Club indicates that there is potential for imported goods, but Kaola Haigou's operational model may not be viable in the long term [9].

本文作者：王昕杰 渣打中国财富方案部 首席投资策略师 晨雾未散的跑道上，总会见到有人影在匀速前进。他们的跑鞋轻叩地面，摆动的双臂与呼吸编织成奇 妙的韵律，如同那些在资本市场中穿越周期的投资曲线。 投资的起点，恰似长跑的起跑线。 当我们 怀揣着对财富增值的憧憬踏入这个领域，便开启了这场漫长的征程。 同时，投资也需要不断学习和调整策略。长跑者在比赛中会根据自己的身体状况和赛道情况调整速度和 节奏，投资者也应如此。市场是动态变化的，新的投资工具、新的经济形势、新的行业趋势不断涌现。 这就要求我们持续学习，不断更新自己的知识体系。 就像长跑者需要了解如何科学地补充能量、如何调 整呼吸一样，投资者需要学习把握宏观经济变化、分析公司、行业发展趋势等诸多知识。 只有不断学 习，才能更好地把握投资机会，优化投资组合，适应市场的变化。 图片源自渣打上海 10 公里跑主题视频 在投资的长跑过程中，耐心是必不可少的品质，对时间复利和持久力的依赖。正如马拉松选手需保持匀 速避免过早耗尽体力，投资者也需避免因短期波动而频繁操作。 市场的波动如同长跑途中的起伏山路， 时而顺风，时而逆风。 当市场行情大好，投资收益节节攀升时，我们不能因此 ...