7月按兵不动后，关于美联储是否会在9月降息的辩论，正变得日益激烈。 7月31日，中金公司的两篇研报从不同角度进行了剖析，为市场理解美联储的决策逻辑提供了两种关键 视角。中金宏观经济分析师肖捷文等认为，最新的信号指向美联储倾向于维持耐心，不会因特朗普施压 而降息。 中金首席海外策略分析师刘刚等则指出，市场可能误解了美联储的决策前提。降息并非必须等到通胀回 落，只要关税对通胀的"一次性"影响路径基本确定，美联储就可以行动。随着美国近期与多国达成关税 协定，这一路径正变得愈发清晰，为9月降息保留了可能性。这些观点并非相互矛盾，而是共同勾勒出 美联储在复杂的经济与政治环境下可能采取的行动路径。 通胀路径明朗化 9月 降息窗口仍在 中金公司研究部首席海外策略分析师刘刚等认为，美联储采取行动的条件正在成熟。市场普遍存在一个 误解，即认为美联储必须等到通胀数据明确回落后才能降息。但实际上，只要关税对通胀的影响路径基 本确定，美联储就可以提前行动。 首先，美联储本身存在降息的内在需求。数据显示，当前美国1.63%的实际利率显著高于约1%的自然 利率，这意味着货币政策对经济构成了限制。同时，经济增长和就业市场已出现"温和走弱" ...

Core Viewpoint - Huawei has made a significant comeback in the Chinese smartphone market, reclaiming the top position with a market share of 18.1% in Q2 2025, marking its return to the forefront after a challenging period due to sanctions and market competition [5][6][14]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese smartphone market has faced a decline, with Q2 2025 showing a 4% year-on-year decrease in shipments, totaling 68.96 million units, ending a six-quarter growth streak [11][12]. - Despite the introduction of national subsidies, the expected boost in consumer demand has been limited, leading manufacturers to control inventory levels and rely on promotional events to clear stock [10][11][12]. Competitive Landscape - In Q2 2025, Huawei's competitors, including Vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Apple, experienced a decline in shipments, with only Xiaomi showing a slight growth of 3.4% [13][19]. - Honor, once a strong competitor benefiting from Huawei's challenges, has seen its market share drop to approximately 12.8%, failing to rank among the top five smartphone brands [19][20]. Historical Context - Huawei's market share peaked at 46% in Q2 2020 before sanctions led to a significant decline, forcing the sale of its sub-brand Honor [25][26]. - The company has been on a recovery path since 2023, driven by the successful launch of the Mate 60 series and a resurgence in its product lineup [27][28]. Product Strategy - Huawei's strategy includes a focus on high-end smartphones and the introduction of innovative products like foldable phones, where it holds a dominant market share of nearly 50% in China [30][31]. - The company has also been expanding its product offerings, including the launch of the HarmonyOS 6, which aims to enhance AI capabilities and user interaction [43][44]. Future Challenges - Despite regaining the top position, Huawei faces challenges in returning to international markets due to ongoing sanctions and a highly competitive domestic landscape [33][34]. - The smartphone market is entering a phase of saturation, with increased competition from domestic brands targeting the high-end segment [34][35]. - The industry is also experiencing pressure in the foldable smartphone segment, with a 14% year-on-year decline in shipments in Q2 2025 [40]. AI Integration - The rise of AI smartphones is seen as a critical area for future growth, with Huawei aiming to innovate in this space, although it has yet to establish a leading position [41][46]. - The development of AI capabilities within HarmonyOS is part of Huawei's strategy to redefine user interaction and enhance the smartphone ecosystem [44][45].

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 作者杨晓庆 谭鸠云 张玲 编辑 曹宾玲 陈梓洁 严贝贝 蒋凡重回权力中心的一把火，烧疼了美团。 在外卖大战火拼 250 亿后，美团核心业务操盘手王莆中首次接受访谈，公开喊话蒋凡"停战"——冲单很容易，这样"卷"没有意义，最终只剩下泡沫。 对手 "先发夺人"，加上随之而来的约谈，淘宝闪购即时零售"抢夺战"，眼看着被按住。 但不计代价的疯狂补贴被叫停了，不意味着外卖大战熄火。 现在打开外卖 APP ，仍能薅到"满 25 减 18 " 大额 优惠券、免费兑换券等羊毛，许多骑手不约而同对媒体透露，周末 "单子没见少"。 地铁上、电梯里、各大 APP 首页的广告攻势甚至愈演愈烈，宣告着淘宝闪购承诺的 未来 100 天每周 "超级星期六"大促，仍如约到来。 看起来， 蒋凡似乎铁了心要 "再造一个美团"。 但拆解 外卖大战的动机、打法会发现，醉翁之意不在酒 —— 阿里或许不是真的眼馋外卖，而是外线防御，盘活资产；美团则诱敌深入，强势反击 。 是否超越美团，不是阿里的核心战略诉求 如今 商场电子专卖店， 正 高频上演着 这样一幕 ： 身着 黄 衣 的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lao Pu Gold, is expected to report a significant revenue increase of 240%-252% year-on-year, reaching between 13.8 billion to 14.3 billion yuan in the first half of the year [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit is projected to increase nearly threefold year-on-year, with an adjusted profit margin of 18.4% to 19.7%, up from 17.7% in 2024 [3]. - The company's stock price has surged over 14 times since its listing in June 2024, but has seen a decline of 30% from its peak of 1,108 HKD per share [5][6]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is nearly 80 times, significantly higher than competitors like Chow Tai Fook [7]. Group 2: Market Position and Brand Strategy - Lao Pu Gold is positioned between traditional jewelry brands and luxury brands, combining the intrinsic value of gold with the design and craftsmanship of jewelry [10][11]. - The brand has established a strong market presence, with a significant increase in loyal members, reaching 71.52% and 81.64% of total members in 2023 and 2024, respectively [12]. - The company is expanding its store network, with plans to add at least 9 new stores by the end of 2025, exceeding initial targets [19]. Group 3: Sales and Pricing Strategy - Same-store sales growth is projected to reach 121% in 2024, with nearly 10 billion yuan in sales from 36 stores [20]. - The company has a product premium rate of 60%-80%, significantly higher than the 10%-20% typical for ordinary jewelry brands [24]. - The company has maintained a gross margin above 40%, compared to around 20% for competitors [25]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces challenges with gold price fluctuations, which may impact consumer willingness to pay higher prices [29]. - The company has not employed hedging tools to mitigate gold price risks, exposing it to potential inventory impairment during price declines [30]. - The company is increasing its gold reserves to support store expansion, with inventory expected to rise from 1.268 billion yuan to 4.088 billion yuan by the end of 2024, a 222.4% increase year-on-year [35].

7月30日（周三），微软超预期的财报表现，让股价盘后大涨8%升至550美元以上。 目前，微软市值3.81万亿美元，如果周四开盘公司股价能延续这一涨势，即便是延续部分涨幅，比如 5%，微软也有望追随英伟达成为全球第二家市值突破4万亿美元的科技巨头。 7月初英伟达创造历史，成为史上首家盘中市值超过4万亿美元的公司。 财报显示，微软2025财年第四财季营收达764亿美元，同比增长17%。公司备受关注的Azure云计算部 门销售额增长39%，大幅超出分析师预期的34%。同时，微软云业务收入首次突破1680亿美元，同比 增长23%。 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" ...

来源：中国网信网 ，原标题《国家互联网信息办公室就H20算力芯片漏洞后门安全风险约谈英伟达 公司》 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" 近日，英伟达算力芯片被曝出存在严重安全问题。此前，美议员呼吁要求美出口的先进芯片必须配 备"追踪定位"功能。美人工智能领域专家透露，英伟达算力芯片"追踪定位""远程关闭"技术已成 熟。 为维护中国用户网络安全、数据安全，依据《网络安全法》《数据安全法》《个人信息保护法》有关 规定， 国家互联网信息办公室于2025年7月31日约谈了英伟达公司，要求英伟达公司就对华销售的 H20算力芯片漏洞后门安全风险问题进行说明并提交相关证明材料。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts as expected by the market [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC members, including Powell, supported maintaining the current interest rates, while Waller and Bowman advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2][9]. - The statement removed the phrase indicating that economic uncertainty had diminished and reiterated that uncertainty remains high, changing the description of economic growth from "steady expansion" to "moderate growth in the first half of the year" [3][18][20]. - The decision to pause interest rates marks the fifth consecutive meeting without action, following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since last September [10][22]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - This meeting revealed the largest internal disagreement among Fed officials since the rate cut cycle began, with two officials voting against the decision to maintain rates [4][15]. - The dissenting votes from Waller and Bowman highlight a fracture in consensus regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [4][17]. - Economists view the statement as more dovish than expected, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [5][12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement emphasized that economic uncertainty remains high and noted a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [18][20]. - The labor market appears robust, but inflation remains above target, which traders interpreted as unfavorable for immediate rate cuts [13][24]. - The Fed plans to continue reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [21][22].

中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全 体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十 五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。中共中央总书记习近平主持 会议。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发展环境面 临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多，同时我国经济基础稳、优势多、 韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场 优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识变应 变求变，集中力量办好自己的事，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略 任务取得重大突破。 会议强调，"十五五"时期经济社会发展要坚持马克思列宁主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论、"三个代 表"重要思想、科学发展观，全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，围绕全面建成社会主义现 代化强国、实现第二个百年奋斗目标，以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, highlighting three distinct factions with differing views on when to implement such cuts [1][5][10]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is divided into three main camps: a faction eager for immediate rate cuts due to concerns over the labor market, a middle group waiting for more data on tariff impacts, and a cautious faction preferring to see clear signs of economic weakness before acting [1][5][10]. - The middle camp, represented by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasizes the instability of inflation forecasts and the risks of waiting too long to cut rates, suggesting a need for further data analysis over the next two months [6][10]. - The more aggressive faction, including Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, advocates for immediate rate cuts, arguing that delaying action could worsen labor market conditions [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Signals and Political Pressure - The article notes that the internal divisions are exacerbated by inflation concerns stemming from tariff threats, which have previously led the Fed to pause rate cuts [2][3]. - Political pressure from former President Trump complicates the Fed's decision-making process, as he has been vocal about urging rate cuts and has made public appearances to influence Fed Chair Jerome Powell [9][10]. - Economic data presents mixed signals, with stock markets reaching record highs while long-term bond yields remain elevated, suggesting that the economy may be strong enough to withstand current interest rates [11][12]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed's internal debates, particularly Powell's comments during the upcoming press conference, for indications of a potential rate cut in September [14][15]. - Additional employment and inflation data over the next two months will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making, especially for the middle camp that stresses the importance of this data in making informed policy choices [16].

图片来源视觉中国 动图 由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美两国贸易谈判释放积极信号，但全球市场依然不能掉以轻心， 从本周三开始，全球市场将进入一个至关重要的72小时。 据新华社、央视新闻报道，当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞 典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。 双方就中美经贸关系、宏观经济政策等双方共同关心的经贸议题开展了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流，回顾并肯定了中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识和伦敦框架落 实情况。 根据会谈共识，双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。 接下来，一系列密集的美国经济数据、科技巨头财报和关键的贸易政策节点将轮番登场，这些事件的叠加， 可能为年内剩余时间的市场走向定下基调。 市场考验将从周三拉开序幕，届时美国将公布第二季度GDP数据，数小时后美联储将公布利率决议。紧接着，微软、Meta、苹果和亚马逊等科技巨头将在周 三和周四盘后相继发布财报，而备受关注的美国7月非农就业报告则将在周五出炉。 这些事件中的任何一个都足以引发市场动荡。 在美股自4月低点大幅反弹、估值已然高企的背 ...