Group 1 - The metal market has shown significant divergence since the beginning of 2025, with gold rising due to a weaker dollar and risk aversion, while silver has recently shown a rebound, and copper and aluminum prices remain resilient. In contrast, domestically priced new energy products and the black metal sector have seen a decline of over 10% [5][19]. - The gold-to-copper ratio is a crucial indicator of the relative value between gold and copper, reflecting changes in global economic cycles, inflation expectations, and risk appetite. Gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset, while copper represents risk assets, serving as a barometer for global economic conditions [7][19]. - Historical trends show that during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, the gold-to-copper ratio surged due to falling copper prices and stable gold prices. When inflation rises and market risk appetite increases, the ratio tends to decrease, as seen in 2021 during economic recovery [20][21]. Group 2 - Since 2021, the annual average price of copper has continued to rise, maintaining above 77,000 yuan per ton in 2025, indicating a strong fundamental backdrop for non-ferrous metals. The relatively low inventory levels of copper and aluminum reflect this strength, contributing to price resilience [22]. - The current gold-to-silver ratio exceeds 90, suggesting that silver remains undervalued relative to gold, indicating potential investment opportunities in silver [3][21].

以下文章来源于六里投研 ，作者投资报 六里投研 . 专注基金投资20年，对话过几乎所有顶级投资人。来一起探索投资世界，提升你的商业洞察力。 来源 | 六里投研 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 今天（6月11日），在一场香港投资峰会上，知名经济学家洪灏就中美关系、贸易战、货币问题以及经济再平衡等 话题分享了他的最新观点。 洪灏赞同中美关系"像一对夫妻在离婚过程中争吵"， 双方在未来将再无瓜葛，但与此同时，他们仍然必须承受后 果，并且要讨论如何分割财产。 而对于贸易战，洪灏提出，中国相比以前，这次准备得更为充分， 同时，考虑到这场贸易战的进程，以及它是如何 开始的，它实际上以某种方式将中国人民团结在了一起。如果你身在中国大陆，你真的能感受到这种气氛，中国人 民以"吃苦"而闻名，在中国文化中，"吃苦"意味着，你可以忍受巨大的艰辛很长一段时间。 洪灏认为，中国经济更多的是投资驱动，而不是消费驱动。要达到经济再平衡，仅靠中国自身的力量是无法成功 的，过去20年都没有取得成功。 因此，我们必须改变思维方式。 经济再平衡应该是一个全球再平衡的过程，中美需共同努力。 投资报（liulishidian）精译了洪灏分享的 ...

Group 1: Coal Market Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a seasonal demand window, with daily consumption at 4.85 million tons as of June 5, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.5% [1] - The inventory available for use is at 24.4 days, down by 1.6 days week-on-week, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is at 609 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.3% [1] - There is a concern about the possibility of a weak peak season due to increased rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, which could enhance hydropower output [1][12] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism meeting from June 8 to 13 is crucial for assessing future trade dynamics, particularly regarding the 10% baseline tariff and semiconductor export restrictions [2][8] - The sensitivity of the commodity market to these discussions is high, especially for shipping and crude oil sectors [2][8] - The potential for a thaw in U.S.-China relations could lead to a rebound in previously declining commodities such as energy and chemicals [8] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [9][10] - Wage growth is at 3.9% year-on-year, indicating sustained consumer strength, but the overall economic outlook remains cautious due to downward revisions of previous employment data [9][10] - The interplay between rising import prices and wage growth may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy flexibility, impacting both equity and commodity markets [10][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is witnessing independent pricing dynamics, with pork prices exceeding 14 RMB/kg and Brazilian soybean prices rebounding [3][16] - The soybean market is currently in a critical growth season, with no immediate weather threats in the U.S. Midwest, suggesting limited upward pressure on prices [16] - The recent performance of soybean meal is driven by rising CNF prices from Brazil, supported by speculative buying from domestic oil mills [16] Group 5: Precious Metals - Silver is positioned for potential gains due to its dual industrial and monetary attributes, with supply constraints and demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [3] - The gold-silver ratio may continue to improve, but fiscal risks remain unresolved, keeping gold as a primary safe haven [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices is driven by improved trade relations between two countries and a sharp recovery in coking coal prices, which has exceeded market expectations. The sustainability of this price increase needs to be evaluated based on marginal changes in the market [1]. Group 1: Mongolian Coal Supply Changes - The dismissal of Mongolia's Prime Minister has raised concerns about potential changes in coal export policies, with some market participants anticipating a 20% increase in coal export resource tax [2]. - Currently, there are no adjustments to Mongolia's coal policies, but the supply of Mongolian coal is expected to decrease due to the high cost of coal and recent price drops [2][4]. Group 2: Domestic Coking Coal Supply - Domestic coking coal supply remains high, but there has been a slight reduction in production due to some major mines cutting output and minor private mines reducing production due to losses [5][6]. - The average profitability of coking coal mines is under pressure, with some mines nearing breakeven points, indicating that significant supply reductions may require further price declines [6][8]. Group 3: Demand Observations - Despite concerns about seasonal declines in steel demand, iron output remains high at around 2.4 million tons per day, supporting strong procurement of raw materials [9][10]. - The price of thermal coal has stabilized around 619 RMB/ton, with significant year-to-date declines, which may provide some support for coking coal valuations as the consumption season approaches [11]. Group 4: Coking Coal Market Summary - The overall trend indicates that while demand for coking coal may have peaked, supply reductions are marginal and primarily driven by low valuations. The recent price surge is seen as a correction rather than a reversal signal [12].

以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 历史不会重复，但是它自然成韵。 文 | 巴顿比格斯 来源 | 巴顿比格斯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期沪银期货价格创上市以来新高，国际白银ETF连续增仓的情况下，欧美降息预期抬升、叠加宏观市场情绪转暖预期提振白银工业 属性，沪银表现强于黄金、金银比小幅修复。 此前黄金屡创新高，白银被低估，金银比一度逼近105（历史均值60-80），随着避险情绪升温，白银成为"价值洼地"，资金涌入推动 其补涨，金银比回落至90。全球最大白银ETF持仓量持续增加，CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）净多头持仓攀升，显示出资金对 白银强烈的看涨情绪。 2025年全球货币体系发生深刻变化，美元霸权遭遇挑战。特朗普政府的一系列政策，如强推制造业回流、关税壁垒等，导致全球美元 回流美国，美元流动性减少，且面临 "特里芬难题" 升级版，即美联储在加息抑制通胀与降息刺激经济维持贸易逆差之间两难抉择， 这削弱了美元信用。 投资者对美元信心下降，转而寻求其他避险资产，白银作为传统的避险资产之一，受到投资者青睐。全球政治经济不确定性增加，如 地缘政治冲突、贸易政策不稳定等， ...

文 | 张晨 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 当地时间周一，桥水基金创始人达利欧发表长文——《内战？》。 而达利欧发表此文的时间，正值洛杉矶动荡升级之际： 据新华社报道，加利福尼亚州政府9日向法院提起诉讼，请求法院裁定美国总统特朗普7 日发布的总统备忘录和美国防部据此调遣加州国民警卫队进入洛杉矶地区的命令违法， 并请求法院撤销相关命令。 同时，美国总统特朗普则公开支持逮捕加州州长纽森的建议，称派遣国民警卫队是很好 的决定，不想发生内战。 达利欧称， 考虑到目前政府的债务问题，以及洛杉矶的骚乱正在被特朗普总统出动国民 警卫队镇压，我认为现在正是提醒大家这一模板的合适时机。 达利欧围绕国家内部的周期中的"第五阶段"与"第六阶段"进行分析。根据达利欧的总结， 第五阶段正是财政恶化导致阶级冲突爆发的前夜，在一个国家内部的周期中具有关键意 义，美国正处于这一阶段。 投资作业本课代表整理了要点如下： 1、相信我们（美国）目前正处于第五阶段，也就是"内战前阶段"。 不要盲目相信"这（内战）不会发生在我们这里"。成功的国家，是那些能在周期中不断 自我修复、不断适应变化的国家。 2、当一个国家处于 ...

Group 1 - The market sentiment was initially "risk on" due to a call between the highest leaders of China and the US, leading to a price rebound, but concerns over economic growth resurfaced after the non-farm payroll data, causing prices to retreat [1][3]. - Gold prices experienced fluctuations while silver saw a significant increase, with COMEX gold rising by 0.54% and silver by 9.24% last week [2][20]. - The COMEX copper price showed a rebound from Monday to Thursday, peaking on Thursday before a pullback on Friday, influenced by concerns over increased tariffs on steel and aluminum [3][5]. Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict supported precious metal prices, while the call between the US and China leaders eased macroeconomic sentiment, boosting market risk appetite [4][20]. - Following the release of non-farm payroll data that exceeded market expectations but had a significant downward revision of previous values, concerns about the US economy led to a rise in US Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices [4][20]. - The COMEX copper price curve shifted upward, indicating a contango structure, with copper inventories nearing 200,000 tons, suggesting potential for further accumulation in US copper stocks [5][6]. Group 3 - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was stable, with trade prices for clean copper concentrate remaining in a narrow range, indicating limited market activity [7]. - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased, reflecting a rise in imports and limited downstream consumption, with expectations of a decrease in inventory in the coming week [13][10]. - The processing fees for 8mm refined copper rods mostly declined, with a notable drop in East China, while the market for recycled copper rods showed signs of recovery [16]. Group 4 - The gold and silver markets showed divergence, with silver's gains outpacing gold's, leading to a significant drop in the gold-silver ratio [22]. - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 670,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 1,290,000 ounces, indicating a tightening supply in the precious metals market [36][41]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 4 tons to 934 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 406 tons to 14,709 tons, reflecting increased investor interest in precious metals [41].

以下文章来源于CFC金属研究 ，作者王贤伟 CFC金属研究 . 本平台由金融业内人士对宏观数据、行业事件，进行专业的解读和评论，分享专业的价值观点，提出专业的投资策略，力争为普通投资者、产业人士打造 专业的投资交流平台，并无偿提供分析与研究服务。 文 | 王贤伟 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 铸造铝合金期货上市后主要关注点包括： 1）期货交割量级不确定性较大；2）供需数据难以追踪；3）废铝紧缺难以证实或证伪； 本 文将铸造铝合金主要研究指标整理汇总以供参考。 复盘2007年以来两类铝价，ADC12价格与A00关联程度较高，而ADC12弹性和波动率不及A00，整体表现为下跌周期中ADC12更为抗 跌，而上涨周期则由A00领涨；同时两类铝价基本呈现3年一个完整的涨跌幅周期，目前正处于2023年启动的周期末端。 我们根据铝行业上下游库存周期判断， 25年下半年则将逐步迈入主动去库+被动去库的组合，恰逢偏弱的价格交叉周期。 铸造铝合金现货市场参考的主流报价平台有三个，由低至高依次是江西保太、上海钢联（相差100-200）及上海有色（相差500- 700），因此最便宜交割品需要 ...

期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴！ 文 | 张晨 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 要点速览 上周四（6月5日）欧市、美市时段，内外盘期银大幅拉涨， 分别突破了2024年年内高点，续 创本轮上涨以来新高。与之相对应的是，金价表现相对低迷， 近几日反而出现冲高回落的震 荡走势，这使得金银比价加速向下回归，符合我们在此前《"脱缰"的金银比价修复空间几何》 专题报告中关于"一旦经贸摩擦边际缓和，引发比价以黄金相对白银补跌（亦即白银相对黄金 补涨）的方式进行修正"的假设条件与结论。 一德菁英汇 . 以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ，作者一德菁菁 资料来源：wind，CME，一德宏观战略部 梳理本轮白银加速拉升，并非宏观基本面出现了显著利多变化，资金聚焦金银比价回归应为主 因。 此前我们曾对金银比大幅修正对应的基本面限定条件进行梳理，即对应10年期美债盈亏 平衡通胀率（通胀预期）达成出清后的修复，上述修复对应的宏观背景通常为一轮危机后，美 短期经贸摩擦缓和情绪难改逆全球化/美元信用弱化趋势，金银比价中枢上移概率大； 短期金银比价修正目标指向87-92区间，完结后回归基本面驱动； 白银创新高打开金价上行空间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the market, highlighting a lack of confidence in macroeconomic recovery and the ongoing challenges posed by external shocks, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and geopolitical tensions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic changes are minimal, with no systemic confidence being rebuilt. The average tariff between the U.S. and China is expected to remain high, around 30%-40% [4]. - U.S. debt pressure and fiscal constraints are weakening the strength of the U.S. economy, leading to a decline in the "American exceptionalism" narrative [5]. - The market is experiencing a price stagnation where prices remain the same but purchasing power is diminishing, creating a poor trading experience [3]. Group 2: Commodity Prices and Market Dynamics - Commodity prices are low enough that the market does not anticipate immediate negative shocks comparable to the lows seen in early April [5]. - Certain commodities, such as glass and rubber, have fallen below their early April lows, indicating a return to previous pricing levels [5]. - Oil and coal are seen as leading indicators for commodity prices, with geopolitical issues potentially driving oil prices higher despite recent market corrections [5][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Recent attacks on Russian airports by Ukraine indicate a shift in military dynamics, suggesting that Ukraine may have opportunities to challenge Russian dominance [6]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts are likely to create long-term threats to energy exports, particularly oil [6]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current U.S. retail inventory levels are increasing, suggesting that demand may be overstretched, with inventory growth at 5% while sales growth is only at 4% [6]. - The supply growth rate is currently double that of demand growth, indicating a trend towards oversupply, which will pressure PPI recovery [8]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - The article raises questions about the potential for market recovery in a long-term weak economic environment, emphasizing the need for systematic thinking regarding investment strategies [9]. - There are structural contradictions in trading, with some sectors appearing overvalued while others, like the photovoltaic and black industrial chains, may offer valuation recovery opportunities [9].