以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 突然的通话，突然的缓和？ 周四晚习主席应约同美国总统特朗普通电话，开始和结果与5月初的瑞士会晤十分相似：开始的比较突然，而结果也比市场预 期得要好。整个谈话历时约1个小时半小时，与习主席和前总统拜登通话的最短时长持平，而今年1月中美领导人的通话时间可能不到1小时。 我们认为这次通话将成为一次重要的分水岭。 中美之间将正式开启贸易谈判，但依旧不会是接下来一个月内美国贸易谈判的重点；"以时 间换空间"，日本、韩国、印度、越南、甚至欧盟的谈判优先级还是会更高；而更重要的是中美竞争的形式将发生变化，从针尖麦芒式的关 税战，变为更加比拼"暗劲"的基本面和供应链的限制与反限制。同时值得注意的是，这次通话主要内容在经贸，而少有涉及地缘政治，这 是未来两国绕不过去的话题。 实际上，有了"前车之鉴"，本次中美领导人通话前的"信号"铺垫已经比较明显。一方面，除了美国官员如哈塞特、贝森特持续透露两国领 导人接触的想法；此外， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the bleak demand outlook for global oil, highlighting the challenges faced by OPEC+ in managing production and the implications for oil prices and market dynamics [12][10]. Group 1: Oil Demand Forecast - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 according to OPEC, while the IEA forecasts a more conservative increase of 0.7 million b/d [12]. - The total world oil demand for 2026 is estimated at 106.28 million b/d, reflecting a growth of 1.22% compared to 2025 [8]. Group 2: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ has lost some influence over the oil market and is seeking to regain control, particularly in response to non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S. [12]. - The article notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production by 410,000 b/d in July, maintaining the same increase as in previous months, indicating a strategy to recover market share [19]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The article highlights significant increases in oil exports from countries like Iran, Kuwait, and the UAE, although the growth rate is showing signs of slowing down [14]. - Iran's production is currently stable at 3.3 to 3.4 million b/d, with potential increases if a deal with the U.S. is reached [14]. Group 4: U.S. Oil Market Insights - U.S. shale oil production is facing a bottleneck, with active drilling rigs at their lowest since January, and profitability hinges on WTI prices remaining above $61 per barrel [19]. - The article indicates that U.S. oil production is currently at 13.401 million b/d, with a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous week [59]. Group 5: Global Oil Inventory Trends - The seasonal inventory build-up period is expected between April and June, with significant increases anticipated due to the lifting of production cuts [28]. - The article suggests that the absolute peak of global oil inventory typically occurs between May and June, which could lead to a critical test for oil prices in the coming months [28]. Group 6: Geopolitical Risks - The article mentions that geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Ukraine conflict, could further complicate the energy supply landscape and impact global oil prices [65].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the coal and coke market, highlighting supply surplus as a fundamental issue and a recent rebound in prices due to improved market sentiment after a period of decline [4][6]. Market Analysis - The primary reason for the recent price decline is the significant oversupply of coal, with a notable drop in prices since March, where the price of coal fell over 180 points and the price of imported coal dropped by approximately 140 yuan/ton [6][7]. - A rebound in coal prices was observed post-holiday, with coking coal prices increasing by over 7% as of June 4, indicating a temporary recovery after a sharp decline [6][8]. Spot Market - The spot market for coking coal has not shown significant recovery, with recent auctions in Shanxi resulting in price declines or unsold lots, and the price of raw coal at the Mengxi port around 717 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Downstream steel mills and coking enterprises have reduced their inventories, leading to a significant accumulation of coal inventory upstream, reaching near historical highs [7]. Profit Situation - Profit pressures are evident, particularly for high-sulfur lean coal and weak caking coal, which are nearing cash flow costs, indicating potential marginal production cuts in the near future [7][8]. - The production capacity of high-sulfur lean coal and weak caking coal in Shanxi is around 20 million tons, and any reduction in supply could provide short-term support for the market [7]. Future Outlook - The third quarter is traditionally a slow season for steel demand, with expectations of a decline in coal and coke demand as well [8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic sentiment and potential changes in coal policies for future market developments [8].

以下文章来源于油市小蓝莓 ，作者朱晓宇 油市小蓝莓 . 紫金天风期货能化团队 文 | 朱晓宇 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 观点小结 核心观点：中性 基本面，检修回归，PVC开工回升，整体库存继续去化；估值低位。关注国内是否有政策出台及实质影响；策略09低 买且滚动。 月差：中性 9-1月差近期震荡走强。 原料支撑：中性偏空 1）电石负荷及价格下滑，乌海电石报2250元/吨。2）兰炭中料报615元/吨，持平上周。 供给：中性 国内开工回升。PVC粉整体开工率为74.60%，环比提升1.49个百分点；其中电石法PVC粉开工率为75.71%，环比提升 2.52个百分点；乙烯法PVC粉开工率为71.71%，环比下降1.19个百分点。 需求：中性偏空 1）下游制品开工微降。2）出口：近端出口平平。3）产业链去库。 利润：中性偏多 单PVC利润低位，综合利润分化。电石一体化吨利-1161元，山东外购电石法吨利-1095元；华北乙烯法利润311元/ 吨。西北综合利润-390元/吨，华北综合利润-524元/吨，双吨价差3048元。 宏观：中性 海外不确定性强，关注国内可能刺 ...

Key Points - The article discusses significant changes in agricultural commodities, particularly wheat, soybean oil, palm oil, sugar, and livestock prices, highlighting the impact of weather conditions and policy changes on market dynamics [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Group 1: Wheat and Corn Market - Wheat is being harvested earlier due to drought conditions, with quality issues overshadowing potential yield reductions, leading to a 3% decline in corn futures as seasonal demand weakens [1][8]. - The U.S. biodiesel policy is uncertain, with potential RVO increases not materializing, causing a drop in soybean oil prices [1][8]. Group 2: Sugar Market Dynamics - The issuance of processing sugar quotas and sustained high import processing profits are putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [2][6]. - Domestic sugar pricing is influenced by policy shifts, with a notable decrease in imports of syrup and premixed powder, leading to a tighter domestic supply [11][12][13]. Group 3: Livestock and Egg Prices - The supply of eggs and pigs is expected to increase, resulting in a decline in prices due to high certainty in supply growth [2][4]. - Monitoring of egg-laying hen stocks and culling is crucial to understanding the profit cycle for egg production [3][4]. Group 4: Palm Oil Market - Malaysian palm oil production is expected to decline in the latter half of May, with estimates ranging from a 1% to 3% decrease compared to the previous month, providing some support to palm oil prices [4][9]. - India's palm oil imports are projected to rise, providing support to production prices, but overall, there is a need for increased exports to China to manage seasonal production pressures [5][9]. Group 5: Soybean and Meal Market - Domestic soybean oil consumption is constrained by crushing profits, limiting the potential for significant consumption growth [3][4]. - The soybean meal futures market is expected to outperform the spot market, with a weakening basis creating an opportunity for reverse hedging [3][4]. Group 6: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market may be overly concerned about the annual corn supply gap, with the next few weeks being critical for assessing inventory levels and price trends [3][4]. - The sugar market is anticipated to face downward pressure due to global oversupply, with predictions of a surplus in the upcoming years [11][12][13].

Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic landscape last week lacked significant data guidance, with trade tensions once again dominating the market, leading to a somewhat chaotic situation [1][3] - COMEX gold and silver prices experienced declines of 2.17% and 1.68% respectively, while COMEX copper saw a decrease of 3.35% [2][4] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold and silver fluctuated within the range of $3269 to $3385 per ounce and $32.8 to $33.8 per ounce respectively, with gold prices down by 1.8% and silver by 1.7% [21][22] - The market's risk appetite fluctuated due to the back-and-forth nature of tariff expectations, with a rebound in precious metal prices following Trump's threats to impose 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum [4][21] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing uncertainties abroad and the supportive credit logic of the dollar [52] Group 2: Base Metals Market - COMEX copper prices showed a strong upward trend, primarily driven by concerns over potential tariffs on copper [5][6] - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was reported at -$43.80 per dry ton, indicating a stable market despite limited trading activity [8] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories decreased to 139,300 tons, reflecting a reduction in market arrivals and a general lack of significant supply increases [14] Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 0.1 million ounces to 38.79 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 690,000 ounces [36] - SPDR gold ETF holdings rose by 7.7 tons to 930 tons, indicating a shift in market positioning [41] - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 3,975 contracts, while short positions fell by 14,178 contracts, suggesting a cautious market sentiment [41][42]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market risks are primarily stemming from the U.S., particularly due to Trump's erratic policies, which have increased economic friction. The dollar is expected to weaken, and this trend will gain more recognition over time, while U.S. stocks remain high [1][29]. - Recent developments indicate that tariffs are showing signs of improvement, as a U.S. trade court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, leading to a significant surge in U.S. stocks [9][10]. - The A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are becoming safe-haven assets, with capital flowing into the Hong Kong market, evidenced by a dramatic drop in Hibor rates from 4 to near 0 [2][25]. Group 2 - The volatility in the market has been heightened due to geopolitical tensions and tariff-related shocks, with the VIX index experiencing its fastest rise in history [6][11]. - Despite a slowing fundamental backdrop, liquidity is returning to the Hong Kong market, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may reach new highs in the second half of the year [2][28]. - The dollar's current account deficit has reached unprecedented levels, indicating a likely continued weakening of the dollar, which is shifting from a safe-haven to a risk asset [18][20]. Group 3 - The relationship between A-shares and precious metals like gold and silver has evolved, with A-shares now reflecting safe-haven characteristics, particularly in the context of recent market downturns [21][22]. - The influx of capital into the Hong Kong market is significant, with a notable increase in the monetary base, suggesting a robust liquidity environment that could support further market gains [25][27]. - The market's response to the potential resolution of tariff issues could positively impact inflation expectations, as the worst-case scenarios may already be priced in [11][12].

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔、张云杰 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 邵翔 关云杰 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 特朗普正在为前期的"一意孤行"付出代价。 百日新政之后，贸易谈判不顺利，俄乌和谈频繁打脸，美债压力居高不下，今天美国国际 贸易法院再来"背刺"一刀，要求撤销滥用《国际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）而落地的关税。对此，我们回答几个问题： 效力如何？ 法律判决的规格不低。 美国国际贸易法院属于美国联邦法院，法官需要总统任命、国会通过。该法院依据美国宪法第三条设立，位于纽约 市，具有全国范围的管辖权。主要审理关税、进口税、贸易壁垒等纠纷，并审查与贸易法规相关的行政决定。 上升到宪法和分权的高度。 用MAGA擅长的宏观叙事和"国本"问题反制特朗普，确实稳准狠：税收权力归国会，这是西方民主国家的重要 制度基础之一；总统在贸易关税上"独断"的权力过大，威胁到美国分权的传统。 其实今年美国国会已经有所动作。4月参议院提出两党法案《2025贸易审查法案》，旨在限制总统单方面征收关税的权力，但由于共和党 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank's report on commodity cycles post-COVID-19 indicates a significant shift in the frequency and volatility of commodity price cycles, suggesting a new era in commodity market dynamics [1][42]. Group 1: Commodity Price Cycles - Over the past 55 years, 27 types of commodities have experienced an average of 14 turning points, approximately every four years [37]. - The average duration of booms is 38 months, while recessions last an average of 52 months, indicating that recessions tend to last longer than booms [29][37]. - The average amplitude of price changes during booms and recessions is roughly similar, suggesting symmetrical price volatility [29][37]. Group 2: Historical Price Fluctuations - The study identifies three distinct periods of commodity price fluctuations: 1970-1985, 1986-2001, and 2002-2024, each characterized by different dynamics and influencing factors [8][12][41]. - The first period (1970-1985) was marked by significant volatility due to supply shocks, particularly in the energy market, with an average boom duration of 31 months and a longer recession period [8][12]. - The second period (1986-2001) exhibited more stability, with longer average durations for both booms (47 months) and recessions (56 months), attributed to technological advancements and market liberalization [12][41]. - The third period (2002 onwards) saw a resurgence in volatility driven by demand shocks from emerging markets, with shorter average durations for both booms (35 months) and recessions (46 months) [13][41]. Group 3: Post-Pandemic Commodity Behavior - Since 2020, the average duration of boom phases has decreased to 24 months, and recession durations have halved to 23 months, indicating a significant compression of the commodity cycle [16][42]. - The amplitude of price increases during booms has intensified, averaging 113%, while the severity of price declines during recessions has decreased to 79% [17][42]. - Various factors, including macroeconomic shocks, geopolitical tensions, and climate-related disruptions, have contributed to the observed deviations from historical commodity price patterns [17][19][42]. Group 4: Long-Term Trends and Structural Changes - The global energy transition is driving sustained demand for key minerals like lithium, copper, and nickel, exerting upward pressure on their prices [19][20]. - Increasingly frequent extreme weather events are heightening supply risks, particularly for agricultural commodities, which remain highly sensitive to climate conditions [19][20]. - The slowdown of global integration has led to increased geopolitical fragmentation, marked by trade barriers and sanctions, which disrupt commodity markets and contribute to price volatility [20][42].

Group 1 - The article discusses the definition and classification of pure benzene, highlighting its significance as a basic petrochemical raw material and its carcinogenic properties [2][8]. - Pure benzene is categorized into two types: petroleum benzene and coking benzene, with distinct production processes and quality standards [5][8]. - The quality standards for petroleum benzene and coking benzene are specified, including purity levels and allowable impurities [6][7]. Group 2 - The production processes for pure benzene include reforming, cracking, and toluene disproportionation, with various sources contributing to its supply [11][12]. - The global pure benzene production capacity is projected to reach 83.31 million tons by 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [29]. - China’s pure benzene capacity is expected to be 25.73 million tons by 2024, with a growth rate of 6.9% [31]. Group 3 - China is a net importer of pure benzene, with imports expected to reach 3.768 million tons in 2024, a 31.1% increase year-on-year [40]. - The global demand for pure benzene is projected to be 65.2 million tons in 2024, with Northeast Asia being the primary consumption region [45]. - In China, pure benzene consumption exceeds 25 million tons, with major downstream products including styrene and caprolactam [50][51].