以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ，作者高明宇，李祖智 文 | 高明宇 李祖智 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 6月11日以来围绕伊以冲突的中东地缘风险迅速升级，首先是特朗普在采访中表示对伊朗停止铀浓缩活动的信心减弱，6月12日夜间以色列随即先 发制人的对伊朗展开空袭，截至今日双方的无人机及导弹袭击持续至第5天，以色列对伊朗的打击目标也从最初的军事设施及核设施扩大至能源基 础设施。尽管目前的军事冲突影响局限在天然气田、油库等伊以两国的国内能源供应链，尚未对伊朗及周边国家的油气出口产生明显冲击，但本轮 伊以冲突有向伊朗"零铀浓缩"或更替政权的两极方向演绎的倾向，在明确的地缘缓和信号出现前，市场仍将对油气市场的极端冲击情景进行评估 及定价。 原油 伊朗是全球第三大石油储量国、第二大天然气储量国，2025年以来伊朗原油月均产量331.4万桶/天、月均出口量163.2万桶/天，大约分 别在全球占比3.7%、3.8%，疫情后出口流向以中国为主。 未来伊以冲突若殃及伊朗上游油田、出口港口及炼厂，将对其原油及成品油出口产生直接影响，我们特此对伊朗的能源基础设施进行梳 理。 伊朗86%的原油储量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges in forming a consensus on market demand amidst concerns of weak long-term demand, particularly in the context of U.S. stagflation and deflationary pressures in the Asia-Pacific region [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Short-term market consensus is difficult to establish due to prevailing pessimism regarding demand, influenced by external shocks that are hard to predict [3]. - The U.S. government's proposal to significantly increase biofuel blending requirements is expected to drive up domestic demand for soybean oil, leading to a notable price increase [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Impacts - The proposed increase in biofuel blending requirements aims to boost domestic biofuel production and reduce reliance on imported raw materials, which is expected to raise soybean oil prices significantly [4]. - If the proposal is implemented, domestic soybean oil demand could rise from approximately 6 million tons per year to between 7.4 and 7.6 million tons by 2025-2027, representing an increase of about 1.5 million tons [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical demand surges, such as the price increase of soybean oil from $0.30 to $0.87 per pound between 2022 and 2023, suggest that current trends could push prices towards $0.60 per pound [7]. - The anticipated increase in soybean crushing demand could elevate U.S. soybean crushing levels to 2.7 billion bushels, improving the soybean balance sheet and supporting higher soybean prices [7]. Group 4: Geopolitical Considerations - The article highlights the potential for geopolitical conflicts to impact commodity prices, with historical examples showing significant price increases during crises [9][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to sustained high prices for commodities if supply chains are disrupted [10][15]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The long-term trajectory of commodity prices will depend on the evolution of geopolitical conflicts and their impact on supply chains, with a focus on whether these conflicts will lead to a permanent increase in prices [17]. - The interplay between geopolitical risks and overall demand will be crucial in determining the stability of commodity prices in the future [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of corn and soybean production in China, particularly focusing on the supply changes and market price trends due to trade disruptions and local agricultural conditions [2]. Research Background - The article emphasizes the need to understand the supply changes of corn and soybeans during their growing season, as they are staple crops in China. It highlights the importance of assessing planting areas, cost changes, and inventory levels among traders and processing enterprises to predict future market prices [2]. Survey Overview - A survey was conducted in Heilongjiang Province involving over 17 participants from various sectors, including spot trading and private equity, to gather insights on the planting and growth conditions of corn and soybeans [5]. Key Findings from the Survey - The processing capacity of a major soybean processing enterprise is 1,000 tons per day, with an annual processing volume of approximately 300,000 tons. The yield from one unit of soybeans is about 80%-80.5% soybean meal and 16%-16.5% soybean oil, with a loss of 3%-4% due to impurities [7]. - Current soybean prices are around 4,100 CNY per ton, with expectations that prices will remain stable in the third quarter. The planting area for soybeans is expected to increase slightly due to supportive policies, despite low profitability [8][10]. - In the Suifenhe area, the average yield for soybeans last year was 360-370 jin per mu, while corn was 1,600-1,700 jin per mu. This year, planting costs have decreased due to lower land rents, with a significant drop in rental prices observed [9]. Market Outlook - The processing enterprise anticipates that soybean prices will fluctuate around 4,100 CNY per ton in the third quarter, with cautious operational plans due to uncertain demand [8]. - The expected opening price for new season soybeans is around 2.05 CNY per jin, but demand may not be sufficient to sustain high prices [10]. - The survey indicates that corn prices may rise due to supply tightening, while soybean prices may follow a high-open, low-close trend similar to last year [10]. Regional Insights - In the Beidahuang area, the planting area for soybeans remains stable, with a focus on high-protein varieties. The average yield for soybeans is reported at 450 jin per mu, with corn yields at 1,800 jin per mu [14][15]. - The planting area for soybeans has increased by 10% in some regions, while corn has decreased by 10%. The overall planting conditions are favorable, with expectations of good yields if weather conditions improve [25][27]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while there are uncertainties regarding soybean prices due to high planting areas and low demand, corn prices are expected to rise due to reduced planting areas and tight inventories. The opening prices for new season soybeans are projected to be around 1.8-1.9 CNY per jin, while corn may reach 0.8-0.85 CNY per jin [27].

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Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in futures pricing is the basis, which is currently significantly misaligned, indicating that futures are undervalued compared to spot prices [6][12][46]. Group 1: Basis Analysis - The basis is derived from the relationship between futures and spot prices, influenced by supply and demand dynamics reflected in inventory levels [7][8]. - Different commodities have their own basis, and the Wenhua Commodity Index should also have a corresponding basis rate [9][10]. - In June, the Wenhua Index's basis rate reached nearly 4%, suggesting a substantial misalignment where futures are undervalued relative to spot prices [12]. Group 2: Inventory and Profit Dynamics - The direction of inventory changes will determine whether commodities will continue to deplete or not, which is linked to profit margins and operating rates [15]. - The non-ferrous sector shows minor contradictions, while the black and chemical sectors exhibit significant basis discrepancies, with futures prices lagging behind spot prices [17][20][23]. Group 3: Future Basis Reversion - The reversion of the 2509 contract basis will depend on the ongoing contradictions in overseas demand and upstream-downstream profit distribution [26][28]. - If upstream prices stabilize, it could lead to an overall increase in industrial products, causing futures prices to rise faster than spot prices, thus narrowing the basis [42][44]. Group 4: Research and Strategy Development - Understanding the basis is crucial for researchers and traders to differentiate between spot and futures logic, enabling effective arbitrage strategies [49][50]. - The basis serves as a fundamental principle for futures, and its analysis can lead to better insights into market dynamics and trading strategies [52].

以下文章来源于混沌天成研究 ，作者有色组 混沌天成研究 . 混沌天成研究院官方公众号。基于混沌天成的地方触角和国际化架构，我们致力于打造一家草根信息与高科技结合，中国国情和国际视野兼备的商品 期货和全球宏观研究院。 来源 | 混沌天成研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点概述： 美对等关税政策后，基本金属回吐近一年涨幅，特朗普暂缓90天实施给出谈判态势后，市场开始交易冲击后的修复，现工业金属已反弹至起跌 位置，在新一轮重新定价的时候，我们梳理了工业金属的供需质地以及现阶段衍生出的交易机会。 从供需质地来看，供应端受限，终端需求质地好（光伏、新能源汽车等占比高）的品种（铜、铝、锡）价格表现会更好，供应端恢复，终端需 求难有增量（房地产占比高）的品种会偏弱（锌），供应过剩品种则一直处于下行趋势下（碳酸锂、镍和 氧化铝 ）。 对于自身矛盾足够突出，供需过剩的品种，如不能扭转过剩的格局，给出空间就是做空的进场点，我们选择 碳酸锂 和氧化铝作为表达标的。对 于供需偏紧的品种，目前处于弱预期修复，强现实未走弱的阶段，继续上行需要更多的利好，但暂时很难看到，反而终端需求出现了下行的迹 象，我们选择锌和铝作为等待 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices strengthened while copper prices declined, with COMEX gold rising by 3.65% and COMEX copper falling by 1.68% [2][3] - Risk appetite has decreased, leading to pressure on copper prices due to geopolitical tensions and market reactions to U.S. warnings regarding Israel and Iran [3][6] - Increased risk aversion has led to a resurgence in gold prices, driven by lower-than-expected CPI data and escalating conflicts in the Middle East [4][20] Group 2 - In the copper market, COMEX copper prices experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable decline attributed to geopolitical tensions and a cautious market sentiment [5][6] - The domestic refined copper consumption showed signs of weakening, which has made bullish sentiment cautious, although overall demand remains resilient [6][50] - The copper concentrate processing fee has shown stability, with recent market indicators suggesting that prices may have reached a bottom [9][12] Group 3 - In the precious metals market, gold significantly outperformed silver, with COMEX gold prices ranging between $3,313 and $3,468 per ounce [20][21] - The inventory levels for COMEX gold decreased by approximately 330,000 ounces, while COMEX silver inventory increased by about 3.74 million ounces [36][41] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6 tons to 940 tons, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold [41]

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以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 文 | 巴顿比格斯 来源 | 巴顿比格斯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 以色列开启斩首行动，地缘事件通过影响供给预期传导至油价，刺激油价上行。现在，全球从 俄乌到印巴再到伊以，地缘冲突不断，复杂多变。原油作为大宗商品之王，影响着全球资产价 格和通胀的变化。当然，如果供给冲击落空，油价上涨过后仍将调整。 2025年原油市场的剧烈波动与特朗普的政策操作密不可分，地缘施压&OPEC影响油价走势， 今年的年度最佳宏观分析师将再次颁给特朗普一点也不过分。 原油价格的剧烈波动，对散户并不友好，清明节后跌停，今天接近涨停，这会导致投机者损失 惨重。要避免此类事件冲击，需从风险识别、策略优化、工具运用三方面构建系统性防御体 系。 隔夜以色列开启斩首行动，伊以冲突升级，黄金与原油大涨，相比之下原油表现更加激动， SC原油主力合约早盘涨停，空头极度恐慌。本轮原油大涨主要驱动是地缘风险抬升叠加前期 空头过度集中。 2025年6月13日，以色列发动 "雄狮崛起" 行动，空袭伊朗首都德黑兰的 IRGC总部，目标 直指伊朗核计划及军事领导人。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司令侯 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major institutions have revised down their global economic growth forecasts for 2025, which impacts demand for commodities, particularly industrial products like oil and copper [3][10][12]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [10]. - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also adjusted its forecasts, predicting a growth rate of 2.9% for both 2025 and 2026, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively [11]. - The World Bank has reduced its 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating that nearly 70% of economies have seen their growth rates downgraded [12][13]. Group 2: Commodity Demand Analysis - The divergence in consumption growth rates for oil and copper is significant, with oil showing a consumption divergence of 0.8% compared to copper's 1.3% [24]. - Current forecasts suggest that copper consumption growth could range from 0.6% to 2.5% depending on the institution, indicating a substantial disagreement among forecasts [19][22]. - For oil, the consumption growth forecasts range from -0.6% to 1.2%, reflecting a similar level of uncertainty [23][27]. Group 3: Price and Trading Dynamics - Copper prices remain relatively high, while oil prices are at a low point, indicating a significant disparity in market conditions [4][26]. - The copper-to-oil ratio is currently around 146, which is historically high, suggesting that copper may be overvalued compared to oil [29]. - The market is currently experiencing low volatility, with traders awaiting a clearer direction for both commodities [28]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical instances of extreme copper-to-oil ratios have been linked to supply disruptions and significant demand changes, which are not currently present [39][40]. - The analysis suggests that the extreme copper-to-oil ratio may correct towards the 2020 average of 120, as current market conditions do not support sustained high ratios [43].