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“高市版超日元贬值”会出现吗?
日经中文网· 2025-10-08 07:32
Core Viewpoint - The unexpected victory of Takashi Sannae in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election has led to a trend of yen depreciation in the foreign exchange market, with the yen falling to the 152 yen per dollar range, raising concerns about potential further depreciation [2][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Takashi's election, several foreign financial institutions retracted their "buy yen" recommendations, citing increased uncertainty regarding the timing of the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike [4]. - Speculative funds that had previously bet on yen appreciation were forced to close some of their long positions, resulting in the yen's decline to the mid-150 yen per dollar range [6]. Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Takashi is viewed as a successor to the "Abenomics" approach, which combines financial and fiscal policies, leading to expectations of a weaker yen [6]. - Predictions suggest that the yen's depreciation may be limited to around 155 yen per dollar, influenced by fiscal policy scenarios and the relationship between long-term bond yields and the yen exchange rate [8][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Bond Yields - If Takashi implements her proposed fiscal measures, such as gasoline tax cuts and additional tax rebates, the 30-year bond yield could rise by approximately 0.15%, potentially increasing the term premium and affecting the yen's value [8]. - The term premium has been rising, with a noted correlation between the increase in the term premium and the depreciation of the yen, particularly during the recent upper house elections [7]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The market is closely watching the appointment of the next Japanese finance minister, as changes in government could impact fiscal policy direction and the yen's trajectory [11]. - There is a prevailing sentiment that extreme yen depreciation is unlikely, as Takashi is perceived to distance herself from excessive fiscal expansion, supported by comments from her close associates [10].
自民党新体制亮相,公明党提三点担忧
日经中文网· 2025-10-07 08:07
自民党临时总务会结束后,高市与新领导班子成员合影(10月7日上午,自民党总部) 公明党党首斋藤铁夫1向高市具体传达了三点意见,一是"政治与金钱"问题;二是历史认知与 靖国神社问题;三是外国人共生问题。尤其是公明党一贯重视与中国的关系…… 10月7日上午,日本自民党在党总部召开临时总务会,正式决定新的领导班子人事安排。自民 党总裁高市早苗任命铃木俊一(原总务会长)为干事长,麻生太郎(最高顾问)出任副总 裁。此外,小林鹰之(前经济安全保障相)出任政调会长,有村治子(前女性活跃相)担任 总务会长。 铃木俊一和有村治子同属自民党内唯一保留的派阀——麻生派。党内"四役"中有一半来自麻 生派,如果加上副总裁麻生太郎,那么在五个主要职位中,有三个由麻生派议员担任。这一 人事安排充分体现了在总裁选举决选中力挺高市的麻生太郎的深厚影响力。 高市早苗在总务会上表示:"希望能把对未来的担忧,转化为希望与梦想"。这是新领导班子 首次召开高层会议,随后党内四位主要干部共同出席了记者会。 此外,曾在总裁选举中担任高市阵营核心成员的前国家公安委员长古屋圭司被任命为选举对 策委员长。前经济产业相梶山弘志出任国会对策委员长,政调会长代理新藤义 ...
“高市外交”的鹰派底色与靖国隐患
日经中文网· 2025-10-07 08:07
在自民党总裁选举中被宣布胜出后起立的高市早苗(10月4日) 高市早苗批评日本政府的历史认知为"自虐史观",曾表示"并不认同"村山谈话。但在此次选 举辩论中她"封印"了自己的一贯主张。不少人认为,高市那些吸引保守派支持者的言行,一 旦就任首相也会变得更加谨慎…… 日本自民党总裁高市早苗过去多次就周边国家发表强硬言论。她批评日本政府的历史认知 为"自虐史观",因此赢得了保守派的支持。在此次党内总裁选举中,为了争取更广泛的支 持,她的言辞相对收敛。但如果她重新开始像以往那样的发言,外交问题可能会成为其政策 的关键隐患。 在进入政界之前,高市早苗曾以新闻主播的身份撰写过时评。1990年,她在《周刊Post》上 发表了名为《As a Taxpayer(作为纳税人)》的连载专栏。 那一年,伊拉克入侵科威特,引发了翌年的海湾战争,中东局势陷入危机。在10月的专栏 中,高市写道:"日本国民确实已经出现'和平麻痹思想',对军事和安全保障问题(中略)过 于冷漠"。 在同一连载中,她还对时任美国总统老布什提出的增加驻日美军经费要求表示反对,主张"没 有接受的必要"。 1993年,她在众议院选举中以32岁之龄首次当选议员,此后在历史 ...
比亚迪在日本9月销量创新高
日经中文网· 2025-10-07 08:07
Core Viewpoint - BYD's sales in Japan have significantly increased, driven by aggressive discount promotions, with the best-selling model being the SUV "Haiyan 7" [2][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In September, BYD sold 802 vehicles in Japan, approximately three times the sales from the same month last year [4]. - The previous record for BYD's sales was 514 vehicles in June, which has now been surpassed [4]. - The discount promotion, which started on September 1 and lasted for one month, covered all models with discounts ranging from 500,000 to 1,170,000 yen [4]. Group 2: Model Specifics - The best-selling model for BYD in Japan is the SUV "Haiyan 7," followed closely by the small car "Dolphin" [4]. - The "Dolphin" model saw a price reduction of 500,000 yen, with a starting price of 2,492,000 yen (approximately 118,000 RMB) [4]. - The "Haiyan 7," which was launched in April, had a price cut of 730,000 yen [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Tesla's sales in Japan, categorized under "others," reached 1,471 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8 times [5]. - Tesla's main model, the "Model 3," had a maximum price reduction of 550,000 yen from May to the end of September [5]. - Both BYD and Tesla achieved record monthly sales in Japan, indicating that imported vehicles are becoming a major driver of pure electric vehicle (EV) sales in the country [2].
“高市交易”势头不减,日经股指连续3天创新高
日经中文网· 2025-10-07 08:07
自民党总裁高市早苗就任带动的股价上涨仍在持续,盘中一度涨幅超过580点,但投资者对市 场过热的担忧也带来了持续的卖压,涨势逐渐放缓…… 10月7日,东京股市的日经平均股指连续第四个交易日上涨,收于4万7950.88点,比前一交 易日上涨6.12点(涨幅0.01%)。这是连续三天刷新历史最高收盘价。股市延续了前一日美 国股市科技股上涨的势头。自民党总裁高市早苗就任带动的股价上涨仍在持续,盘中一度涨 幅超过580点,但投资者对市场过热的担忧也带来了持续的卖压,日经股指涨势逐渐放缓,甚 至出现小幅回落的情况。 Nagomi Capital投资总部部长村松一之表示:"'高市交易'至少会持续一周,可以说是蜜月 期"。他认为,自民党新领导班子在10月7日就任后,将维持股市的热情。 日本经济新闻(中文版:日经中文网)田村峻久、佐藤惠里菜 版权声明:日本经济新闻社版权所有,未经授权不得转载或部分复制,违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 视频号推荐内容: 岩井Cosmo证券首席策略师嶋田和昭对目前的股市上涨评价道:"即便觉得上涨速度过快,也 不得不跟随市场买入,否则就会错失机会"。这反映出投资者 ...
坂口志文获诺奖:免疫学是日本的“家传技艺”,人才辈出
日经中文网· 2025-10-07 08:07
Core Viewpoint - Japan has produced three Nobel Prize winners in the field of immunology, highlighting its strong research capabilities despite recent declines in global rankings [12]. Group 1: Key Contributions of Japanese Researchers - Shimon Sakaguchi, the latest Nobel laureate, discovered that removing specific immune cells can activate immune responses, leading to autoimmune diseases [3][5]. - The research on regulatory T cells by Sakaguchi has significant implications for cancer treatment, with Rakuten Medical initiating clinical trials for a new cancer therapy targeting these cells [5]. - The emergence of gene manipulation technologies in the 1970s spurred global interest in immunology, with Japanese researchers making notable contributions [7]. Group 2: Historical Context and Influential Figures - Notable figures in Japanese immunology include Shohei Hayashi, who made groundbreaking discoveries in oxygenase and was considered a strong candidate for the Nobel Prize [9]. - Tadao Takahashi and Tadamitsu Kishimoto are other key scholars who have significantly advanced the field, with Kishimoto's work leading to the development of blockbuster drugs like Actemra [10][11]. - The legacy of these researchers has fostered a robust environment for immunology in Japan, with many students and successors continuing their impactful work [9][10]. Group 3: Current Challenges and Future Directions - Despite its historical strengths, Japan's scientific competitiveness is declining, necessitating policies to nurture talent and translate research into innovation [12][13].
让坂口志文获诺贝尔奖的调节性T细胞是什么
日经中文网· 2025-10-06 11:53
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine is awarded to Shimon Sakaguchi, Mary E. Brunkow, and Fred Ramsdell for their discovery of regulatory T cells that suppress abnormal immune responses, paving the way for new therapies for autoimmune diseases, allergies, and cancer [2][4]. Group 1 - Shimon Sakaguchi discovered regulatory T cells that can inhibit immune responses against the body’s own cells, preventing autoimmune diseases [2][4]. - The award recognizes the discovery of peripheral immune suppression, which is crucial for understanding immune system regulation [4]. - Sakaguchi's research began after he read a report on thymectomized mice showing autoimmune disease symptoms, leading him to hypothesize the existence of a T cell type that could control immune overactivity [4][5]. Group 2 - Despite skepticism from other researchers, Sakaguchi proved the existence of regulatory T cells in 1985 and identified key genes involved in their function by 1995 [5]. - He founded RegCell, a startup in California, in 2016 to promote the application of his research findings [5]. - The potential applications of manipulating regulatory T cells include treating autoimmune diseases and preventing organ transplant rejection [7]. Group 3 - The Nobel Prize ceremony will take place on December 10 in Stockholm, Sweden, with a total prize amount of 11 million Swedish Krona to be shared among the three laureates [7]. - Sakaguchi has received multiple prestigious awards throughout his career, including the Keio Medical Prize in 2008 and the Robert Koch Prize in 2020 [8].
坂口志文等3人获诺贝尔生理学或医学奖
日经中文网· 2025-10-06 10:55
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine will be awarded to Professor Shimon Sakaguchi from Osaka University and two others for their discovery of regulatory T cells that inhibit immune responses, paving the way for new therapies for autoimmune diseases, allergies, and cancer [2][4]. Group 1 - The awarded research focuses on the core mechanisms of the immune system [4]. - The discovery of regulatory T cells acts as a "brake" on immune responses [2]. - This research opens new avenues for developing therapies for various diseases, including autoimmune diseases and cancer [4].
高市早苗面临“安倍经济学的魔咒”
日经中文网· 2025-10-06 08:12
自民党总裁高市早苗在与麻生太郎会谈后接受媒体采访(10月5日,东京永田町) 高市早苗长期信奉与其保守政治理念接近的安倍晋三。她自称是安倍经济学的继承者,主张积极财政的 必要性。如果在通胀局面下采取安倍经济学式的政策,就存在助长物价上涨风险,而物价上涨正是她所 强调的"最优先应对课题"…… 日本自民党总裁高市早苗在财政和金融政策方面以前首相安倍晋三的经济政策"安倍经济学"为蓝本。她 倾向于推行积极财政与金融宽松,并在日本央行的加息方针上表现出谨慎立场。如果在通胀局面下采取 安倍经济学式的政策,就存在助长物价上涨风险,而物价上涨正是她所强调的"最优先应对课题"。 高市极有可能在10月15日召集的临时国会上被指名为日本首相。预计就任后将尽快指示政府和执政党制 定经济对策。她在10月4日的记者会上强调:"无论如何都要全力投入物价高涨对策"。 高市围绕财政支出的表态,也产生了彰显与石破茂政权不同路线的效果。石破茂曾就安倍经济学表 示,"把经济变成了成本削减型的模式,这一点不好",一直对安倍经济学持否定态度。 她提出以"净债务余额"作为财政健全化目标。这一指标是从国家与地方的债务余额中扣除金融资产后计 算的。高市主张:" ...