Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) of Norway, highlighting its status as the largest sovereign wealth fund globally, its investment strategies, governance mechanisms, and its approach to managing currency risk and sustainable investments [2][3]. Investment Strategy and Governance Mechanism - GPFG is managed by the Norwegian Central Bank's Investment Management Department (NBIM) under a transparent governance framework, focusing on a benchmark investment portfolio primarily composed of equities and fixed income [3][4]. - The fund's governance structure includes oversight from the Norwegian Parliament, the Ministry of Finance, and NBIM, ensuring accountability and transparency in its operations [6][15]. - The strategic benchmark for GPFG is composed of 70% FTSE Global All Cap Index and 30% Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, allowing for effective asset allocation and risk management [11][8]. Asset Allocation and Diversification - As of the end of 2023, GPFG's asset allocation is primarily in equities (70%), with bonds (27.1%), and increasing investments in real estate (1.9%) and renewable energy infrastructure (0.1%) [13]. - The fund employs a reference portfolio strategy that allows for flexibility in investment decisions, enabling it to hold non-traditional asset classes and optimize asset allocation [12][11]. Currency Risk Management - GPFG has a strategic decision to invest entirely in international markets to manage currency risk, allowing it to diversify and mitigate the impact of fluctuations in the Norwegian krone [19][20]. - Unlike other sovereign wealth funds, GPFG does not hedge against currency fluctuations, focusing instead on long-term wealth accumulation without short-term liquidity pressures [19][20]. Commitment to Sustainability and Ethical Investment - GPFG emphasizes responsible investment principles, actively excluding companies involved in coal mining, tobacco production, or severe environmental damage, reflecting its commitment to sustainable development [17][16]. - The fund's ethical guidelines are enforced by an ethics council established in 2004, ensuring that investment activities align with its sustainability goals [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a relatively good performance in the short term, primarily due to backlog orders in the export sector and the positive impact of the "trade-in" policy on retail [2][3][5]. Short-term Economic Analysis - In the next couple of months, China's export growth is likely to remain high, potentially close to April's 8% growth, driven by backlog orders and the upcoming trade negotiations [3][5]. - The GDP growth for the second quarter is projected to be around 4.8%, but challenges are anticipated in the second half of the year due to several factors [3][5]. - The increase in tariffs on Chinese products by the U.S. has risen by approximately 35 percentage points, significantly impacting exports, especially with the tariff on small packages rising to about 54% [5][6]. - The positive effects of the "trade-in" policies for durable goods are expected to diminish in the latter half of the year, leading to potential negative effects on consumption [6]. - The real estate sector, crucial for domestic demand, is in its fifth year of decline, with new housing starts down by 22% year-on-year, complicating efforts to stabilize domestic demand [6]. Policy Recommendations - The Chinese government has effectively intervened in the stock market and maintained the stability of the RMB against the USD, which is crucial for economic stability [9][10]. - Further fiscal policies should be considered to accelerate spending and debt issuance, especially in light of anticipated declines in export growth [10]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is critical, requiring measures beyond traditional tools like interest rate cuts, including allowing necessary bankruptcies and ensuring the completion of pre-sold properties [10][11]. - Structural reforms in the social security system are needed to enhance the income levels of the elderly, which could improve consumption capacity and alleviate burdens on migrant workers [11]. - Fiscal reform is essential to improve local government finances and create independent revenue sources beyond real estate, which is vital for enhancing the business environment and stimulating domestic demand [12].

Focus - Zhang Guoqing emphasized the importance of platform economy in promoting innovation and strengthening domestic circulation, urging platform enterprises to utilize resources for high-quality products and services, achieving mutual benefits with stakeholders [3]. Policies - The Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions on improving the modern enterprise system with 19 specific measures aimed at enhancing corporate governance, management levels, and social responsibility [5][6]. - The opinions mark a transition from "tangible governance" to "high-quality governance," aiming to reduce transaction costs and promote efficient resource allocation [7]. Events - The People's Bank of China and Bank Indonesia signed a memorandum to promote bilateral currency settlement, expanding cooperation to include capital and financial accounts, which supports the internationalization of the Renminbi [4][5]. - The EU expressed regret over the US's decision to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum, indicating readiness to implement countermeasures, which could escalate trade tensions and increase global economic uncertainty [8]. Economic Indicators - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.5%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment, with large enterprises showing a PMI of 50.7% [9]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, with specific sectors like construction and services showing varied performance [9].

Core Viewpoint - The research paper explores how carbon reduction support tools under China's "dual carbon" goals can enhance the market value of commercial banks while fulfilling their environmental responsibilities [2][5]. Group 1: Research Framework and Background - The study employs a "signal transmission - reputation accumulation - risk governance" three-dimensional analysis framework to explain how structural monetary policy tools reshape the value creation logic of commercial banks [2][4]. - Green finance is highlighted as a bridge for integrating environmental governance with economic growth, with commercial banks playing a crucial role in green credit practices [2]. Group 2: Impact of Carbon Reduction Support Tools - The introduction of carbon reduction support tools by the People's Bank of China has linked low-interest re-lending funds directly to banks' green loan performance, aiming to guide financial resources towards green low-carbon sectors [2][5]. - The research indicates that these tools effectively enhance banks' market value through three key mechanisms: signal transmission, market reputation, and risk governance [5]. Group 3: Empirical Analysis - The first part of the empirical analysis uses a difference-in-differences model with data from 42 A-share listed commercial banks between 2020 and Q1 2023, finding that carbon reduction loans significantly increase banks' market value [6]. - The second part validates the effectiveness of the three mechanisms: - The signal transmission effect is evidenced by increased stock liquidity due to reduced information asymmetry [7]. - The market reputation effect is shown through increased positive discussions and interactions on social media platforms following banks' participation in carbon reduction loans [7]. - The risk governance effect is demonstrated by improved liquidity and risk resistance in banks that participated in the carbon reduction support tools [7]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The study suggests that carbon reduction loans in energy-saving and clean energy sectors have the most significant impact on enhancing banks' market value, indicating a need for regulatory focus in future policy designs [7]. - It also notes that carbon reduction loans, supported by low-interest central bank funds, have a more pronounced effect on banks' market value compared to regular green loans, recommending an expansion of such tools' application [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the interdependent relationship between investment and consumption, arguing that effective fiscal policy should focus on both aspects to stimulate economic growth and meet human needs [4][7][10]. Group 1: Investment and Consumption Dynamics - Investment and consumption are two sides of the same coin, and both are essential for expanding total demand [5][7]. - Government spending should prioritize the expansion of total demand, with a balanced focus on both investment and consumption [5][7]. - The current economic environment shows weak private investment growth, while government spending is more focused on investment rather than consumption [5][7]. Group 2: The Role of Government Spending - Government spending has become increasingly recognized as an endogenous factor in the economy, playing a crucial role in macroeconomic regulation [8]. - The effectiveness of government spending is hindered by issues such as mismatched flows, idle funds, and uncertainty in spending responsibilities [8]. - The article highlights the need for a structural reform in fiscal policy to enhance the effectiveness of government spending [3][15]. Group 3: Human-Centric Logic - The article advocates for a shift from a material-based logic to a human-centric logic in economic development and fiscal policy [10][12]. - Government investment and consumption should be designed around human needs, particularly focusing on the demands of different regional groups [10][12]. - The need for social mobility and equity is emphasized, particularly in addressing the urban-rural divide and facilitating the transition of rural populations to urban settings [11][13]. Group 4: Central-Local Fiscal Relations - The article discusses the significant reliance on local government finances for macroeconomic regulation, highlighting the imbalances in central-local fiscal relations [14][15]. - Local government spending accounts for a substantial portion of total government expenditure, which affects the overall effectiveness of fiscal policy [15]. - The need for reform in central-local fiscal relations is deemed urgent to enhance the coordination between investment and consumption [15].

白银—制钱"双重货币本位制 自明末"一条鞭法"开始，中国开始广泛使用白银作为流通货币，到了清朝初期，白银已经成为主要的官 方货币，用于支付赋税或者完成跨省大规模交易；另一方面，政府铸造的制钱，则用于地方的小额零售 交易；在西南省份以及核心省区的某些边陲地区，由于运输上的花费，民间银两的使用甚至多于制钱。 整体而言，近代中国虽然存在着许多区域经济体，但白银好像血液系统一样将这些区域经济连成一体。 在"白银—制钱"的双重本位制下，19世纪前期，市场供应的白银价格相对于政府铸造的制钱波动剧烈， 最高增加了2.5倍，形成了"银贵钱贱危机"，对中国的经济社会造成了深刻的影响。 究其原因，近代中国流通的白银主要依赖于国外输入，因而不可避免地受到国际冲击的影响。1540年左 右，日本开始向中国出口白银，用以交换中国的丝绸、衣服、漆器等物品。但由于矿山的损耗，日本出 口到中国的白银在17世纪已经逐渐减少；与此同时，来自拉美的白银开始大量涌入中国。到了18世纪， 英国成为将拉丁美洲白银输往中国最重要的欧洲国家。 根据严中平在《中国近代经济史统计资料选辑》中的数据，由于茶叶在英国的普遍饮用，中国的茶叶是 18世纪中国对英出口贸易 ...

文/中央财经大学绿色金融国际研究院首席经济学家 刘锋 本 文 聚 焦 2 0 2 5 年 全 球 贸 易 格 局大变 革 背景 下， 逆 全球 化 与 " 对 等 关 税"政策对全球资产配置的深远影响。通过剖析传统资产配置理论面 临的挑战，基于"三重框架+五维穿透"理论体系，深入探讨资产配置 新逻辑，从多维度阐述全球资产配置范式重构、投资者应对策略及 未来资产价格驱动逻辑变革，为投资者在复杂多变的市场环境中提 供理论指引与实践参考。 在全球化进程中，全球资产配置曾是投资者获取稳定收益、分散风险的重要手段。然而近年来， 逆全球化趋势加剧，美国的"对等关税"举措给全球经济和金融市场带来巨大冲击，对华加征关税 的"对等报复"措施成为全球产业链、价值链重构的关键催化剂。这一举措不仅是贸易政策的重大 单边转向，更使得全球经济环境变得错综复杂。 在此背景下，传统资产配置理论遭遇前所未有的挑战，原有的风险评估、收益预期和资产定价逻 辑亟待更新。深入研究逆全球化重构与"对等关税"冲击下的全球资产配置新范式，对于投资者规 避风险、实现资产保值增值，以及金融市场的稳定发展具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文基 于"三重框架+五维穿透" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing weakening of the US dollar, which has fallen below the critical level of 100, and its implications for global asset allocation, particularly in Asia [3]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Global Impact - The US dollar is in a weak cycle due to the Federal Reserve's policy shifts, increasing fiscal deficits, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3]. - There have been five instances of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar this year, indicating deepening economic contradictions in the US [3]. - Asian currencies are experiencing collective appreciation, with the Japanese yen rising by 10%, the New Taiwan dollar by 9%, and other major Asian currencies increasing by 3%-7% [3]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong dollar has seen significant liquidity injections from the Monetary Authority, with interbank borrowing rates dropping from 4% to 0.6%, encouraging leveraged investments in stocks and real estate [5]. - The influx of talent is evident as local universities expand enrollment, with the University of Hong Kong's business school increasing its master's program from 300 to 5,000 students annually [5]. - The IPO market in Hong Kong is recovering, with 70 new listings in Q1 2023, and expectations for the total IPO scale to exceed HKD 400 billion for the year [7]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation Strategy - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio remains high at 29, with tech giants at historical valuation premiums, suggesting a need to reduce exposure to US equities [9]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield has rebounded to 4.5%, with significant rollover pressures from maturing debt, leading to a recommendation to avoid short-term volatility risks in US Treasuries [9]. - Japanese assets are being revalued, with a 60% increase in core Tokyo property prices over three years, and a high employment rate among graduates attracting middle-class families [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - In the current transition period, the recommended asset allocation includes 15% in insurance products, 5.2% yield Asian dollar bonds, and a focus on equities with 40% in Hong Kong stocks, 25% in Japanese stocks, and 20% in high-dividend A-shares [11]. - Alternative assets should include 10% in gold and 5% in Bitcoin, with a strategy to increase holdings in the Chinese yuan and yen while reducing US dollar exposure to below 30% [11].

当地时间5月29日，美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前作 出的禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 联邦巡回上诉法院在裁决书中指出，美国政府的请求已获批准，在本法院审议相关动议文件期间，美国 国际贸易法院在这些案件中作出的判决和永久性禁令将暂时中止，直至另行通知。 特朗普政府早些时候向该上诉法院表示，如果禁止关税执行的裁决不能被迅速暂停，政府将最早于5月 30日向最高法院寻求紧急帮助。 文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 美国关税问题再度反转，美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗普政府的请求， 暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前作出的禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧 急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。这导致先前因为裁 定特朗普越权而上升的市场风险偏好再度回落。 美国联邦巡回上诉法院"叫停"美国国际贸易法院的裁决 特朗普政府关税政策的命运真可谓"一波三折"，先是被美国国际贸易法院的裁决"叫停"，特朗普政府对 此很快提起上诉，过了一天上诉法院又"叫停"了美国国际贸易法院的裁决。 4月以来，特朗普政府对各国极限施压并不断反复，其目的在于通过关税手段 ...

文/清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员 孙长忠 5 月 28日美联储公布了本月货币政策会议纪要。这是对等关税政策宣布 实施一个半月后第一份会议纪要，以正式文件形式反映了美联储官员对形 势变化的看法，凸显了美联储当前面临的政策困境，讨论了应对策略，强 化了会议声明和美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会的政策立场。 美联储面临的困境 继3月会议纪要后，"不确定性"仍是本次纪要的关键词。上次纪要全篇提及"不确定性"21次，本次纪要 是19次，特别是在委员会评估经济展望时称"迄今为止宣布的加征关税幅度和范围远超他们之前预期"， 之后在讨论关税政策变化及其经济影响时每一句都强调"不确定性""相当大的不确定性""显著不确定 性""总之是他们经济展望的不确定性异常高"。正是这种不确定性使美联储目前面临着政策困境。 根据会议纪要，美联储工作人员对今明两年美国实际GDP增长的预测低于3月会议时的预测，因为已公 布的贸易政策对实际经济活动的拖累比工作人员此前预测更大，还会导致生产率增长放缓，降低未来几 年潜在GDP增长。同时劳动力市场将显著疲软，失业率到今年底将高于工作人员估计的自然失业率并持 续到2027年。 工作人员的通胀预测高于3月， ...