首席点评：稳定币是机遇也是挑战 国际货币基金组织（ IMF）副总裁李波在2025年夏季达沃斯论坛上表示，稳定币的发展既存在机遇， 也存在挑战，核心挑战在于，如何对稳定币实施有效的监管，需要在全球范围内达成更多共识。欧洲央 行担忧，稳定币可能威胁金融稳定并影响数字欧元推行，但欧盟委员会认为风险可控。伊朗议会通过一 项法案，暂停伊朗与联合国核监督机构的合作。美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一项潜在 的核协议展开会谈。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，目前经济形势存在高度不确定性，希望以实际数据为依 据，而不是过于自信地做出预测，某个时候美联储将会恢复降息。国务院总理表示当前国际经贸格局正 在发生深刻变化，我们应当坚定不移拥抱普惠包容的经济全球化，维护自由贸易和多边主义，促进世界 经济稳定发展。海外美股涨跌不一，美债收益率回落，原油止跌，国内夜盘能化、农产品、黑色板块多 数上涨。 重点品种：贵金属、股指、橡胶 贵金属：金银小幅反弹。以色列和伊朗同意全面停火，美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一 项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这类协议 "有多必要"。美联储主席鲍威尔在国 会证词中表示，美联储目前处 ...

首席点评：以伊宣布停火 伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明，宣布与 "以色列及其支持者"停火。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡也发表 声明称，接受美国总统特朗普提出的停火协议。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会证词中表示，美联储目前处于 有利位置，不排除关税对通胀的影响可能没有预期大，不排除提前降息的可能。国新办举行新闻发布会 介绍，9月3日上午，北京天安门广场将举行纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年大 会，包括检阅部队。央行公告称，将于6月25日开展3000亿元MLF操作。本月MLF净投放达到1180亿 元，为连续第4个月加量续作。海外美股上涨，美债收益率回落，国内夜盘原油能化、黑色板块下跌。 重点品种：原油、铜、集运欧线 原油：夜盘油价下跌 9%以上。美国总统特朗普在Truth Social上表示，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致， 将会有一个完全和彻底的停火。（从现在开始大约6个小时，当以色列和伊朗已经结束并完成他们正在 进行的最后任务！）在12小时后，战争将被视为结束。受此影响地缘风险溢价大幅挤出市场。俄罗斯表 示，全球主要石油生产商组成的OPEC+集团可能将增产计划较原定时间提前约一年实现。 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the missile strike by Iran on a U.S. military base in Qatar, and its implications on oil prices and market sentiment. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as stated by U.S. President Trump, has led to a significant decrease in geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market, resulting in a drop in oil prices and a rise in U.S. stock indices [1][2][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 5.65% in the overnight session following Trump's announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which is expected to reduce geopolitical risk [2][11]. - The OPEC+ group may accelerate its production increase plans by about a year, responding to the current market conditions [2][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have retreated due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is influenced by inflation data and ongoing trade uncertainties [3][17]. - Despite long-term support for gold prices, the current high levels have led to hesitation in upward movement, while silver has shown limited upward momentum after a recent rally [3][17]. Coal and Coke - Coal production is recovering as some previously halted mines resume operations, leading to improved market conditions with reduced auction prices and lower overall transaction failure rates [4][23]. - The coke market is experiencing a seasonal decline in iron production, and while there is no immediate reversal in trends, the situation remains volatile due to fluctuating energy prices [4][23]. Industry News - As of the end of May, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase, with solar and wind power capacities growing significantly [7].

Group 1: Geopolitical Situation - The U.S. President Trump announced that Iran's nuclear facilities have been "completely destroyed," aiming to eliminate Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities to curb nuclear threats [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of severe retaliation against U.S. interests in the Middle East, and there are discussions in Iran's parliament about potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz [1][5] - The market is concerned about escalating tensions in the Middle East due to U.S. involvement, leading to a bullish opening in Middle Eastern stock markets on June 22 [1] Group 2: Financial Market Overview - U.S. stock indices predominantly declined, with small-cap stocks weakening, while China's major indices remain at low valuation levels, suggesting a favorable long-term investment environment [2][9] - The financing balance in China decreased by 7.479 billion yuan to 1.80918 trillion yuan as of June 19 [2] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices rose approximately 2.5% following U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, with Iran's parliament agreeing to potentially block the Strait of Hormuz [3][11] - The number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. fell to 438, the lowest since October 2021, down by one from the previous week and down by 47 year-on-year [3][11] Group 4: Precious Metals Analysis - Gold and silver prices continued to retreat amid escalating Middle Eastern tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which has not yet made significant moves despite ongoing inflation concerns [4][17] - The market is currently anticipating a potential easing of trade conflicts, but the ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to provide long-term support for gold prices [4][17] Group 5: Industry-Specific News - The domestic gold jewelry processing industry faces long-term challenges due to declining marriage and birth rates, which are expected to reduce the rigid demand for gold jewelry [8] - The overall demand for gold jewelry, driven by weddings and childbirth, accounts for over 30% of the domestic gold jewelry market, and a continued decline in this demand could lead to overcapacity in the industry [8]

首席点 评 ： 局势波动， 油价继续上行 商务部召开例行新闻发布会，商务部新闻发言人何亚东：中国一贯高度重视维护全球产供链的稳定与安 全，依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的审查，已经依法批准一定数量的合规申请，并将持续 加强合规申请的审批工作。特朗普据称认为有必要让伊福尔多核设施瘫痪，白宫称两周内决定是否攻击 伊朗。加拿大政府表示，若与特朗普政府的贸易谈判陷入僵局，最早将 7 月 21 日提高对美国钢铁和铝 产品的关税，使其水平与美国更广泛贸易安排的进展相一致。 重点品种： 原油、黄金、股指 原油：夜盘油价继续上涨。以色列与伊朗的军事互袭已经持续一周，目前尚未缓和的迹象。伊朗是欧佩 克第三大产油国，每日产油量约为 330 万桶。但更重要的是 , 每天约有 1900 万桶石油和石油产品通过 霍尔木茲海峡的主要水道，人们普遍担心这场冲突可能会扰乱该海峡的贸易流动。国际能源署数据显 示， 5 月份参与所谓的《联合宣言》的 10 个非欧佩克产油国原油日产量 1445 万桶，比 4 月份日均产量 减少 9 万桶；因而 5 月份整个所谓的 OPEC+ 原油日产量 4221 万桶，比 4 月份日均产量增加 16 万桶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the oil market and the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, on commodity prices, alongside the implications of U.S. monetary policy and economic indicators. Group 1: Oil Market - The SC night market saw an increase of 3.52% in oil prices, driven by ongoing military conflicts between Israel and Iran, with no signs of de-escalation [2][10] - U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, totaled 823.231 million barrels, a decrease of 11.243 million barrels from the previous week, while commercial crude oil inventories reached 420.942 million barrels, the lowest since January [2][10] Group 2: Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts within the year, but the hawkish tone from Chairman Powell led to a decline in gold prices [3][16] - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has raised concerns about further geopolitical risks, which may support gold prices in the long term despite short-term fluctuations [3][16] Group 3: Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Chinese central bank announcing eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, which had a muted market reaction [4][8] - The financing balance increased by 5.271 billion yuan to 1.81532 trillion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for long-term capital allocation in the stock market [4][8] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 245,000, aligning with market expectations, indicating a stable labor market [2][10] - The Federal Reserve's stance on inflation suggests that tariffs may lead to persistent inflationary pressures, with expectations of rising inflation in the coming months [5]

首席点 评 ： 局势波动，油价攀升 特朗普称已完全控制伊朗上空，知道哈梅内伊在何处但目前不会刺杀，警告美国耐心在耗尽，呼吁伊 方"无条件投降"，原油一度涨 5% 。美国 5 月零售销售环比下降 0.9% ，创两年来最大降幅；制造业前 景愈发模糊，美国工业产出三个月内第二次下滑。日本央行维持利率不变，下一财年起放慢缩表步伐； 日央行行长：过快削减购债规模可能破坏市场稳定，若经济前景符合预期将加息。周二， IEA 在最新 报告中预测， 2025 年全球石油产量将增加 180 万桶 / 日至 1.049 亿桶 / 日，而需求预期仅为 1.038 亿桶 / 日。这一 110 万桶 / 日的供应过剩，将推动全球石油库存在年内持续累积。 贵金属：中东局势升级，黄金走强，市场担心局势进一步升级。特朗普在社交媒体上呼吁伊朗"无条件 投降"，并声称美军"完全掌控伊朗领空"，他还暗示或将派遣美方高层与伊朗接触。以色列上周五凌晨 对伊朗发动大规模空袭，攻击伊朗核设施，伊朗随后对以色列发动报复袭击。美国 5 月零售销售环比下 降 0.9% ，远低于预期的 -0.7% ，上周美国通胀数据表现低于市场预期，关税对通胀冲击要好于此前担 忧 ...

首席点 评 ： 黄金原油价格下跌 中国 5 月"消费升、生产稳、投资软"：社零同比增 6.4% 创 2023 年 12 月来最高增速，规模以上工业增 加值同比增 5.8% ， 1-5 月城镇固定资产投资增 3.7% 、房地产开发投资同比降 10.7% 。报道称伊朗希 望与美国和以色列对话，寻求结束敌对状态，只要美方不参与袭击，愿重返核问题谈判桌，美油一度跌 近 5% 。美加首脑 G7 峰会碰头，特朗普预计"几天"或"几周"内达成美加贸易协议，签署美英贸易协 议。美国参议院版共和党法案建议将债务上限提高 5 万亿美元，比众议院方案高出 1 万亿美元。 重点品种： 原油、黄金、股指 原油： SC 夜盘下跌 1.94% 。伊朗正在紧急发出信号，表示希望停止与以色列的敌对行动，与美国恢复 关于其核计划的谈判。国际能源署执行干事比罗尔在当天早些时候的一份声明中表示，国际能源署正 在"监测"以色列袭击的影响，但"准备在必要时"利用其"超过 12 亿桶的紧急储备 ` "采取行动。欧佩克周 一发布了 6 月份《石油市场月度报告》。欧佩克下调了对明年美国和其他竞争对手石油供应增长的预 测，但在继续增产之际维持石油需求预期不变。 ...

首席点 评 ： 中东风险加剧，原油黄金走强 伊朗发动大规模导弹袭击报复，周末同以色列持续互袭，袭击了包括以总理家庭住所在内目标，伊朗官 员称严肃考虑是否封锁霍尔木兹海峡；以色列袭击伊朗最大天然气田，冲突扩大至油气设施，以军称空 袭伊朗国防部总部、核计划总部及多处石油设施。以总理：如伊朗接受美国要求放弃核计划，以色列愿 停止行动。 WTI 7 月原油期货涨 7.26% ，全周累涨约 13% 。布伦特 6 月原油期货涨约 7% ，全周累涨 近 11.7% 。 COMEX 8 月黄金期货涨 1.48% ，全周累涨约 3.2% 。中国 5 月社融增量 2.29 万亿元，新增 人民币贷款 6200 亿元， M2-M1 剪刀差缩小。国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，部署中国 （上海）自由贸易试验区试点措施复制推广工作。世界贸易组织 13 日在瑞士日内瓦召开服务贸易理事 会年度第二次会议。中方指出美国"对等关税"误导性叙事和错误逻辑，要求美方切实遵守世贸组织规 则，通过多边合作而非单边措施解决分歧，与各方共同维护全球贸易体系的稳定。 重点品种： 原油、黄金、股指 伊朗和以色列互相发起新一轮军事打击。当地时间 6 月 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and geopolitical events impacting market sentiment, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI both showed a mild month-on-month increase of 0.1% in May, which is below expectations, with core PPI growth reaching a near one-year low, raising expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The financing balance in China increased by 1.82 billion yuan to 1.8066 trillion yuan on June 11, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [2][7] - The US initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, with continuing claims soaring to the highest level since the end of 2021, indicating potential economic weakness [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - In the oilseed market, the EIA forecasts a significant decline in US biodiesel and renewable diesel imports due to tax credit policy adjustments, which may support a slight increase in US soybean oil prices [3] - The May production of Malaysian palm oil reached 1.77 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05%, while exports rose by 25.62% to 1.3872 million tons, indicating a robust supply-demand dynamic [3] - Copper prices are under pressure due to low smelting fees and weak demand from the real estate sector, with domestic demand remaining stable in the power and automotive industries [3][15] Group 3: Geopolitical Events - Israel's Defense Minister warned of potential missile and drone attacks against Israel following its strikes on Iran, which could escalate regional tensions and impact market stability [4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and pork products from the EU, extending the investigation period to December 16, 2025, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [5] Group 4: Market Performance - The US stock indices experienced slight fluctuations, with the overall market showing a bullish trend, supported by the principle agreement framework reached between China and the US [2][7] - The night trading session for oilseeds showed a strong performance, while copper prices declined, reflecting mixed market sentiments across different commodities [3][15]