Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in shipping rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on various commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, while highlighting the ongoing economic adjustments and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are currently in a consolidation phase, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and economic data reflecting potential stagflation [2][4][16]. - President Trump's decision to extend the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU has alleviated some market concerns, leading to temporary price increases in gold [2][4][16]. - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax reform bill that is expected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about U.S. debt levels [2][4][16]. Group 2: Copper - Domestic demand for copper remains stable, driven by increased investments in power grids and growth in home appliance production [17]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations due to low processing fees and copper prices, with attention on U.S. tariff negotiations and currency exchange rates [17]. Group 3: Shipping Industry - The shipping index for Europe has shown a decline, with the latest SCFIS European line index at 1247.05 points, down 1.4% [30]. - The shipping market is optimistic about potential price increases in June, with average container prices rising to around $2400, reflecting a $600-$700 increase from the end of May [30]. - The overall shipping capacity is expected to remain stable, but the market anticipates a cooling period after initial price increases, leading to a more balanced outlook [30].

首席点评： 美国将对欧盟加征50%关税 国务院总理李强在印度尼西亚总统府同印尼总统普拉博沃举行会谈。李强指出，双方要加强市场联通和 产业协作，提升贸易投资便利化水平，拓展金融、新能源、数字经济、人工智能、航空航天、海洋等领 域合作。 国际方面：第 25届东盟经济共同体理事会会议在马来西亚吉隆坡举行。会议预测，今年东盟地区国内 生产总值(GDP)将较去年增长4.7%，通货膨胀率将约为3%。会议认为，受外部环境因素影响，对东盟 经济增长的预测有下调风险。 市场方面：当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于较低水平，中长期资金入市配置的性价比仍然较高。 当前地产仍未企稳，外部不利影响仍在，央行仍将保持支持性货币政策，资金面保持宽松，对短端期债 价格仍有支撑。 重点品种： 贵金属、股指、原油 贵金属： 金银价格回落。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，周一早盘黄金价格 回落，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%。美国众议院以微弱优势通过税改法案，未来十年 将增加联邦债务约3.8万亿美元。对美国债务问题和经济压力的担忧发酵。5月开始公布的经济数据将逐 渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更将明显 ...

首席点评：加密货币热度高涨，黄金回到主舞台 国内方面：习近平同法国总统马克龙通电话。习近平指出，支持欧盟加强战略自主，在国际事务中发挥 更重要作用。央行： 5 月 23 日开展 5000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期。国际方面：美国总统特朗 普：马上要去参加在弗吉尼亚州举行的加密货币晚宴。美国在加密货币、比特币等领域占据主导地位。 市场方面：股指、国债小幅回落。当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于较低水平，中长期资金入市配 置的性价比仍然较高。当前地产仍未企稳，外部不利影响仍在，央行仍将保持支持性货币政策，资金面 保持宽松，对短端期债价格仍有支撑，关注后续贸易谈判进展。 重点品种：贵金属、股指、国债 贵金属： 美元价格反弹，金银价格回落。美国众议院以微弱优势通过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦 债务约 3.8 万亿美元。有关穆迪下调美国主权评级以及特朗普减税法案推出等事件下，对美国债务问题 和经济压力的担忧发酵，本周整体上美债下跌，美元表现疲弱令金银出现反弹。关税冲击进入缓和阶 段，市场避险情绪降温。 5 月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更 将明显的滞胀态势。短期内美联储难有 ...

首席点评： 打得一拳开，免得百拳来 原油： SC夜盘下跌1.09%。哈梅内伊对与美国的核谈判能否达成协议表示怀疑，因为伊朗正在审查举 行第五轮谈判的提议。美国石油学会数据显示，上周美国原油库存继续增加，同期美国汽油库存和馏分 油库存减少。截止2025年5月16日当周，美国商业原油库存增加249.9万桶；同期美国汽油库存减少3.328 万桶；馏分油库存减少140.1万桶。库欣地区原油库存减少44.3万桶。关注低油价给与美国制裁委内瑞拉 和伊朗的空间。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1 ）国际新闻 欧盟指美国谈判提案不切实际，被爆抛出新方案，拟部分产品免关税，共同投资 AI等领域。媒体称， 欧盟提出，逐步将非敏感农产品和工业品的关税降至零、在能源、AI和数字连接领域的互惠投资与战 略采购计划，还涉及在应对钢铁、汽车等领域产能过剩等共同挑战方面的合作；欧盟期望达成一个平衡 且互利的协议，目前双方仍在相互试探。 2）国内新闻 中国 5年期和1年期LPR利率均下调10基点，为年内首降。5月20日周二，中国人民银行授权全国银行间 同业拆借中心公布，中国1年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）最新报3.00%，上次为3.10%；5年期LP ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and positive economic environment in China amidst a turbulent international situation, advocating for a moderately loose monetary policy to support effective financing needs of the real economy [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the beauty care sector leading gains and the defense sector lagging [2][8]. - The total trading volume in the market reached 1.21 trillion yuan, with notable increases in financing balances [2][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a favorable cost-performance ratio for medium to long-term capital allocation [2][8]. Group 2: Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose to 1.665%, with a net injection of 177 billion yuan by the central bank [3][9]. - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [5][9]. - The overall economic environment is still in a transition phase, with real estate investment continuing to decline [3][9]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Copper prices saw an increase, driven by stable domestic demand and growth in power investment [3][16]. - Gold imports in China surged by 73% in April, reaching a new high for the past 11 months, indicating strong demand in the precious metals market [6]. - The aluminum market is facing potential supply issues due to geopolitical factors, while nickel prices are expected to remain stable amid tight supply conditions [19][20]. Group 4: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing a recovery in supply due to increased imports, while domestic soybean meal supply is expected to rise significantly [26]. - Corn prices are on a downward trend, influenced by high inventory levels and weak downstream demand [27]. - Cotton prices are fluctuating due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing trade negotiations, with a focus on new order developments [28]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price adjustments reflecting a return to fundamental market conditions [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of international disputes on financial markets and emphasizes the importance of maintaining confidence in achieving success amidst these challenges [1]. Group 1: Financial Sector Insights - The People's Bank of China aims to support Beijing in becoming a highland for technology finance and to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to accelerate the development of the Beijing Stock Exchange to better serve innovative small and medium-sized enterprises [1]. - U.S. President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, criticizing Chairman Powell for being slow to act [1]. Group 2: Shipping and Commodities - The shipping index for Europe showed fluctuations, with the 08 contract closing at 2387.9 points, up 5.84% [2]. - The SCFIS European line index was reported at 1265.30 points, down 2.9%, indicating a narrowing decline [2]. - The outlook for the shipping market suggests a return to rationality after a period of heightened expectations, with the June contract expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [2]. Group 3: Oil and Industrial Production - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" due to high government debt of $36 trillion and a heavy interest burden [3]. - China's industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 6.1% in April, indicating a continued growth trend [3]. - Retail sales in April reached 37,174 billion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, reflecting a slight acceleration compared to the first quarter [3]. Group 4: Economic Data and Trends - China's April economic data showed a slight recovery in consumption, with retail sales growth at 5.1% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in home appliances and cultural products [5]. - The fixed asset investment growth rate remained low, and the real estate sector showed signs of a pullback [5]. - The retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 25% year-on-year, while automotive consumption grew by 0.7% [5]. Group 5: Industry Developments - Xiaomi is set to launch its SUV model YU7 and its self-developed SoC chip, which is expected to enhance its high-end strategy [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs has a positive outlook on Xiaomi, citing its strong balance sheet and integration capabilities as key advantages [7]. Group 6: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed slight increases, with the environmental sector leading gains while the food and beverage sector lagged [8]. - The bond market saw a general rise, with the 10-year government bond yield falling to 1.663% [9]. - The market's risk appetite improved following progress in U.S.-China trade talks, which included the cancellation of some tariffs [9].

首席点评： 宏观利好，内需接力 中美达成重要共识。中美经贸高层会谈 5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务 院副总理当地时间11日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深 入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。国际方面：俄乌传出谈判迹象，特朗普表示今日 与双方领导展开沟通。巴以冲突仍在持续，暂无停火意向。印巴冲突导致克什米尔地区战火不断，核威 胁升级，大国博弈加剧。特朗普继续批评鲍威尔降息节奏太迟，但短期来看美联储尚未释放降息讯号。 在宏观面向好的预期下，商品将持续迎接不断的扰动冲击。坚定看好需求韧性下，各品种回到基本面轨 道，等待明确新的方向。 重点品种： 航运、原油、聚烯烃 集运欧线： 上周五 EC回调，08合约在传统旺季预期下回调相对有限。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1154美 元/TEU，环比小幅下降7美元/TEU，基本对应于05.19-05.25期间的欧线订舱价，反映5月下旬运价的多 数沿用。在经过前期宏观情绪缓和及美线抢运潮带来的欧线旺季预期升温后，短期市场有所降温，逐渐 回归理性，预计将回归欧线本身的基本面及估值表现。以目前6月初大柜报价 ...

首席点评： 以我为主，内外兼修 国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理李强在会上强调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济 形势，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际 循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。目前，国家出台了一系列稳增长、调 结构、促改革的政策措施。我们也注意到，国内消费市场呈现出稳步增长的态势，这表明国内经济基本 面依然稳健。海外宏观方面，全球经济复苏的不均衡性愈发明显。美国经济表现强劲，失业率降至历史 低点，但通胀压力依然存在。欧洲则面临能源危机和供应链瓶颈的双重挑战，经济增长乏力。国际货币 基金组织（ IMF ）在最新报告中下调了全球经济增长预期，强调各国需加强政策协调，以应对不确定 性。 重点品种： 原油， 航运 ，黄金 原油： 市场预期美国和伊朗可能很快就其核项目达成协议，国际能源署认为今年石油市场平衡更为宽 松，国际油价继续下跌。美伊核协议的前景预计将对石油市场产生深远影响。美国全国广播公司新闻台 14 日报道， 哈梅内伊的政治顾问沙姆哈尼在接受该台采访时表示，作为解除对 其所有经济制裁的条 件，愿承诺永远不制造核武 ...

首席点评： 中美经贸关系竞合窗口期 2025 年 5 月 15 日，中方宣布自即日起暂停对 28 家美国实体的出口管制措施，同时美方同步撤销对中 国商品 91% 的关税，保留的 34% 关税中 24% 暂停加征 90 天。这场 " 关税休战 " 标志着双方在芬太尼 关税争端持续两年后首次达成竞合妥协，但商务部昨日 " 发现一起查处一起 " 的强硬表态，以及美方仍 保留 10% 战略关税的举措，揭示出博弈远未结束。 国内政策组合拳精准发力，央行降准释放万亿流动性与科技金融 15 条新政形成共振。 0.5 个百分点的 全面降准叠加汽车金融公司定向降准，既延续了适度宽松基调，又精准支持实体产业升级。值得关注的 是， 4 月企业新发贷款利率降至 3.2% 的历史低位，配合《促进科技金融发展意见》提出的全生命周期 金融服务体系，政策着力点正从总量刺激转向结构优化。 海外市场方面，特朗普政府的 " 交易艺术 " 展现新动向。在斩获卡塔尔 2000 亿美元大单的同时，美国 众议院推进数万亿美元减税计划，这种 " 左手贸易右手财政 " 的组合策略无不体现其交易的风格。 当前中美博弈已进入 " 边打边谈 " 的新阶段， 90 ...

首席点评： 全球政策协同效应或将逐步显现 国家主席习近平出席中拉论坛第四届部长级会议开幕式并发表主旨讲话。习近平强调，当前，世界百年 变局加速演进，多重风险交织叠加，各国唯有团结协作，才能维护世界和平稳定，促进全球发展繁荣。 国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自 5 月 14 日 12 时 01 分起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税 措施。美国 4 月未季调 CPI 同比上涨 2.3% ，连续第三个月低于预期，为自 2021 年 2 月以来的最低水 平；核心 CPI 同比持平于 2.8% 。 国内方面，一季度经济数据表现亮眼，显示出经济复苏的良好态势。 消费和投资成为拉动经济增长的主要动力，特别是服务消费的快速恢复，为经济增长注入了新活力。海 外方面，短期美元走强，使得新兴市场国家面临资本外流的压力。同时，欧洲央行等主要经济体的货币 政策走向也备受关注，全球货币政策的协同效应将成为影响未来经济走势的关键因素。 重点品种： 原油， 航运 ，股指 原油： 夜盘油价继续上涨。美国劳工部 13 日发布数据显示，美国 4 月份消费者价格指数 (CPI) 同比上 涨 2.3% ，环比数据由上个月的 -0.1% 扭转为上涨 ...