关于本栏目 2025年上半年，国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。 截至目前，全国31个省份中上半年经济数据均已公布。从GDP增速来看，23个省份超过或与全国5.3%的平均线持平，8个省份未能跑赢全国大盘。 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【国金高频图鉴】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团 队。 各省份 GDP 增速分化 雅下水电正式开工 " 反内卷 " 支撑期货价格集体回升 上半年信贷资金流向 中美直接贸易往来减弱 01 #本期Headline# 各省份GDP增速分化 出口波动较大，其中对美国出口依赖度最高的山西（对美出口占总出口的24%）上半年出口下滑34.8%，跌幅明显。相反，出口大省中除广东外，江苏、浙 江、山东、上海等地出口均维持韧性。另外，中部省份如河南、湖北等地出口表现亮眼。 江、山东、上海等地出口均维持韧性。另外，中部省份如河南、湖北等地出口表现亮眼。 02 雅下水电正式开工 经济总量排名靠前省份中，除广东外，经济前五省份增速均高于全国平均水平，合计拉动GDP增长2.1个百分点左右，是国内经济增长的压舱石。 ...

中美各自的外交布局对于中美博弈的走向至关重要。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛 自第一轮贸易摩擦以 来，中国明显加快了全球外交步伐。而在特朗普再次当选、全球笼罩在贸易战阴 影的背景下，中国与非美国家的外交关系实现了多点突破。 一 方面，中国与日韩及海合会国 家重启了此前停滞的自贸协定谈判，并显著加快了谈判进程。另一方 面，中国的外交诉求更加精准明确。在与 欧盟的互动中，通过技术授权换取高附加值市场准入，与日 韩则着力构建产业互补的利益共同体。 与此同时，中国在"一带一路"框架下深化与中亚、中东、非洲及拉美地区的合作，重点推进能源与关 键矿产资源的合作以确保供应链安全，积极拓展人工智能和数字经济等新兴领域，并以此为契机加速人 民币国际化进程。 一、 欧盟：以产业技术换高附加值市场 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在 2024-2029 年委员会的政治指导方针将对华的重心更多地放在了"系统性 对手"这一层面，使得中欧关系从原本平衡的"伙伴、竞争者、系统性对手"三元关系，转变为以"竞争 和对抗"为主导。然而，随着特朗普再次入主白宫并对包括其传统盟友在内的全球范围发起贸易战， 欧 盟与中国之间的三元关系发生了变化，双方的接触日益频繁，合作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and challenges of international trade regulations, particularly in the context of U.S.-Vietnam trade relations, highlighting the interplay between tariffs and tax policies under the Trump administration [3][26]. Summary by Sections U.S.-Vietnam Trade Relations - The Trump administration's tax cuts and tariffs are interconnected, with the "Great American Trade Act" signed into law, providing flexibility in negotiations with other countries [3]. - Negotiations with the EU and Japan are more complicated due to deeper interdependencies, while talks with ASEAN countries, particularly Vietnam, are simpler due to power imbalances [3][4]. - Vietnam has proposed several concessions to the U.S., including tariff exemptions and increased purchases of U.S. goods, but the U.S. has imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnamese products and a 40% tariff on goods transiting through Vietnam [3][4]. Tariff Implementation and Regulatory Mechanisms - The U.S. has not clearly defined "transshipment goods," but existing trade regulations suggest that these goods are those exported from countries with special tariff benefits but do not meet U.S. customs origin qualifications [5]. - A collaborative regulatory mechanism is anticipated, where Vietnam will issue origin certificates, and the U.S. will use these for differential tariff policies [5][6]. Vietnam's Origin Rules - Vietnam's origin rules are categorized into preferential and non-preferential rules, with the former requiring a minimum regional value content (RVC) of 40% [7]. - The "Made in Vietnam" certification aims to strengthen origin regulation and combat foreign goods misrepresenting as local products, with a focus on key industries like electronics and textiles [8]. Compliance Risks for Industries - Industries heavily reliant on Chinese materials or simple processing may face higher compliance risks under the new U.S.-Vietnam agreement, while those with substantial local investment will be less affected [13]. - Specific industries, such as machinery, textiles, and basic metals, have LVC values below the 40% threshold, indicating potential challenges in meeting compliance standards [13]. Recommendations for Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies must assess whether their products fall under U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties, as this will affect their export compliance [21]. - A thorough supply chain analysis is necessary to ensure compliance with U.S. origin requirements, moving from simple assembly to more complex manufacturing processes [22][23]. - Strengthening internal controls and traceability of data is crucial for compliance, enabling companies to provide verifiable documentation during U.S. customs inquiries [24]. - Enhancing professional capabilities to respond to U.S. origin investigations is essential for navigating regulatory challenges effectively [25]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that trade dynamics are driven by market forces rather than rigid legal frameworks, suggesting that as long as profit opportunities exist, companies will find ways to navigate complex regulations [26][27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a structural bull market driven by various factors, including geopolitical risk reduction, a weak dollar environment, liquidity support from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and increased southbound capital inflows [2][28][29]. Group 2 - Geopolitical risk reduction has improved market risk appetite, benefiting the Hong Kong stock market, which is known for its volatility and trading opportunities [5]. - The weak dollar environment has supported the stability of the Hong Kong stock market, with the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating by 1.2% and 1.5% respectively since early April [8]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's significant liquidity injection has reinforced market rebound momentum, with a total liquidity injection of 129.4 billion HKD in a single month, the second-highest in a decade [12]. - Southbound capital, particularly from insurance funds, has become a strong stabilizing force for the Hong Kong stock market, with cumulative net purchases reaching 14.5 trillion HKD, 2.9 times that of the same period last year [17]. Group 3 - From an industry perspective, southbound capital shows a preference for the financial sector, while other funds have diverse holdings across various sectors, including technology and consumer goods [21]. - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations of continued support from the RMB and southbound capital, despite potential challenges from U.S.-China relations and Fed interest rate policies [29][36]. Group 4 - The article anticipates a third round of revaluation for RMB assets, driven by improved consumer confidence and the potential for reduced country risk premium in the Hong Kong stock market [40].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in tariffs imposed by the United States on China, reaching 48.2% in 2025, and its implications for global trade dynamics, particularly in the semiconductor and consumer goods sectors [4][6]. Tariff Changes - The average tariff rate for China is projected to rise from 10.9% in 2024 to 48.2% by May 2025, marking a substantial increase of 37.4% [3][4]. - Other countries such as the EU and Japan will also see increases in their respective tariff rates, with the EU's rate expected to rise from 1.2% to 6.7% and Japan's from 1.5% to 14.1% during the same period [3][5]. South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 9.5% in early July, reaching $19.4 billion [9]. - Key export categories for South Korea include semiconductors, precision instruments, and automobiles, indicating resilience despite global trade tensions [9]. Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market in China is experiencing a downturn, with transaction volumes declining by 12.1% year-on-year as of mid-July, particularly in first and second-tier cities [10]. - Price indices are also adjusting, with major cities like Beijing facing significant downward pressure on prices [10]. Consumer Electronics and Automotive Sales - Despite a decline in absolute sales figures, the consumer electronics sector in China is showing resilience, with a year-on-year sales increase of 34.6% in early July [12]. - The automotive sector also reported a 7% year-on-year growth in retail sales, with the new energy vehicle market seeing a notable increase in penetration rates [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the acceleration of reform implementation as outlined in the Third Plenary Session, focusing on high-quality development by local governments and addressing issues such as market segmentation and local protectionism [2][5]. Group 1: Reform and Policy Direction - Recent important policies and meetings indicate a unified direction towards accelerating the execution of reform deployments from the Third Plenary Session, with a focus on building a national unified market and improving public services linked to the resident population [2][6]. - The central idea of the July Central Financial Committee meeting is to "break local protection," which involves regulating local government investment attraction behaviors and reducing direct market interventions [2][3]. Group 2: Anti-Involution and Urban Development - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address quality issues and subsidy problems rather than simply increasing prices or reducing capacity, as market failures have led to a situation where "bad money drives out good" [2][6]. - Local governments are required to adopt a correct view of performance, accelerate the transformation of government functions, and respect industrial development laws to avoid blind repetition in construction [3][5]. Group 3: Investment in People - The core idea of high-quality urban development is "people-oriented new urbanization," which emphasizes improving living conditions and public services [6][8]. - Recent policies aim to eliminate household registration restrictions for social insurance and promote basic public services based on residency, which can release consumption potential among low- and middle-income groups [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is a critical juncture that will test the current policy stimulus themes, with subsequent events potentially influencing market risk preferences [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rejecting linear extrapolation in understanding the complexities of Trump's political maneuvers, suggesting that while his path to achieving goals is dynamic, the underlying demands remain static, leading to potential chaos [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The passage of the OBBB Act reflects Trump's stronger control over domestic affairs and may lead to a resurgence in his foreign policy assertiveness, increasing the risk of backlash from TACO [3][4]. - The U.S. economy may face three significant "gray rhino events" in the second half of 2025: a clear trend towards fiscal contraction post-OBBB Act, a more pragmatic and aggressive approach to tariffs and international relations, and confusion stemming from differing monetary policy stances between the old and new Federal Reserve chairs [4][5]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - Following the implementation of the OBBB Act, the U.S. fiscal landscape is expected to shift towards more contractionary measures, with a pressing need for budget cuts due to rising deficit pressures [5][11]. - Trump's approach to budget cuts is notably aggressive, particularly in reducing SNAP benefits, which may impact traditional red states and politically sensitive swing states [5][11]. Group 3: Trade and International Relations - Trump's renewed focus on tariffs and international relations is characterized as more aggressive and pragmatic, necessitating non-U.S. economies to reassess their negotiation strategies [11][12]. - The tariff structure for various countries under the "Liberation Day" initiative indicates a significant shift in trade dynamics, with countries like Japan and South Korea being primary targets for tariff adjustments [12][13]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The ongoing conflict between the old and new Federal Reserve chairs is likely to create market confusion, with the potential for the "shadow Fed chair" to gain market influence [14][15]. - The political implications of the Federal Reserve's actions are expected to intertwine with economic conditions, particularly as the new chair's stance may diverge significantly from the current chair's policies [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasizes the end of the extensive expansion model of urbanization and land finance dependency, proposing clear requirements for high-quality urban development [1][3]. Group 1: Urban Development Strategy - The conference, held on July 14-15, 2023, focuses on urban renewal as a key strategy, aiming to build modern, innovative, livable, resilient, beautiful, civilized, and smart cities [3][4]. - The meeting outlines seven key tasks for urban work, with the primary focus on optimizing the modern urban system to enhance the capacity for population and economic development [4][5]. - The emphasis is on a people-centered new urbanization approach, aiming to address public service gaps and promote the consumption potential of low- and middle-income groups [4][5]. Group 2: Public Service Improvement - Improving the supply level and equalization of basic public services is highlighted as a focal point for urban work, with a commitment to continue promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations [7][8]. - The meeting indicates a shift in public service provision from being tied to household registration to being linked to the place of residence, aiming to enhance the welfare of migrant workers [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Urban Renewal - The conference introduces new goals for urban renewal, including the construction of innovative cities, which is expected to become a key focus area [9][10]. - Significant investment is anticipated in urban infrastructure, with an estimated demand of approximately 4 trillion yuan for the renovation of urban pipelines over the next five years [10][11]. - The meeting emphasizes the importance of urban safety, proposing strict regulations on high-rise buildings and enhancing overall public safety measures [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mismatch between short-term foreign exchange hedging and the long-term narrative of de-dollarization, suggesting that while there is a strong belief in a weak dollar, it may overlook potential reversal opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Capital and Dollar Hedging - Since the second quarter, there has been a strong consensus that actions like Trump's tariffs and interference with the Federal Reserve's independence have impacted the credibility of the dollar, leading to non-U.S. capital fleeing dollar-denominated assets [3][4]. - A recent BIS report questions whether non-U.S. investors are truly abandoning dollar assets, suggesting they may be more focused on currency hedging rather than divesting from dollar securities [4][6]. - Data from CFTC indicates a significant increase in short positions on the dollar index by asset management companies, reflecting a rising demand for hedging against currency risk [6][8]. Group 2: Market Indicators and Trends - The risk reversal options market shows that investors are increasingly hedging against the risk of a dollar decline, with a notable rise in demand for euro-dollar call options [10][12]. - The cross-currency basis for Asian currencies and euros relative to the dollar has decreased, indicating that the cost of hedging dollar risk has become more expensive due to strong demand [12][15]. - Despite the potential for non-U.S. and alternative assets to mitigate risks associated with the dollar, the substantial positions held by foreign investors in dollar assets make a quick shift challenging [15][18]. Group 3: Potential Reversal Opportunities for the Dollar - The article identifies several potential catalysts for a dollar rebound, including a reduction in hedging demand as observed in the options market [18][22]. - The dollar index is approaching long-term support levels, and the U.S. productivity advantage may provide a basis for a rebound if market sentiment shifts [22][25]. - Political factors, such as Trump's focus on revitalizing U.S. manufacturing, may also influence the dollar's status, as a weak dollar is not necessarily aligned with his long-term goals [25][26]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Independence - The article discusses the complex implications of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by Trump's pressure, which could lead to varied outcomes for the dollar depending on economic data [27][28]. - Four scenarios are outlined regarding the interaction between U.S. economic data, Trump's influence on the Fed, and the resulting impact on the dollar's value [28][29]. - The influence of the debt ceiling on dollar liquidity is deemed limited, with current market conditions suggesting a more stable dollar environment despite potential increases in Treasury supply [31][33].

Group 1: Real Estate Market - In June, the national real estate sales market experienced a volume and price adjustment, with a year-on-year decline in the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities by 2.2%, and a further decline of 9.2% in the first week of July [3] - The average daily transaction area in first, second, and third-tier cities in June showed year-on-year changes of -1.5%, 0.1%, and -7.8%, respectively, with the first week of July seeing declines of -7.2%, -11.7%, and -7.4% [3] Group 2: South Korea's Export Performance - In June, South Korea's exports grew by 4.3% year-on-year, recovering from a previous decline of -1.3% [6] - Key product categories such as ships, semiconductors, and computers showed significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 63.4%, 11.6%, and 15.2%, respectively [6] - Exports to Taiwan and the European Union performed well, while exports to China and the United States declined by 0.5% and 2.7%, respectively [7] Group 3: Consumer Market Trends - Following the "6·18" shopping festival, there was a noticeable decline in both home appliance and automobile sales [8] - In June, automobile retail data showed a slight decrease in sales, attributed to factors such as tight funding for trade-in programs and the end of promotional events [9] - Home appliance sales also experienced a downturn, with the average weekly sales of eight major appliance categories reaching 95.4 billion yuan in the first three weeks of June, but dropping to 42.9 billion yuan in the last week, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.7% [10] Group 4: Shipping and Freight Rates - Since June, freight rates on China-US routes have decreased, following a 90-day tariff reduction agreement reached in early May [11] - The shipping capacity on China-US routes increased significantly, leading to a drop in container shipping rates, with rates falling to 2089 and 4124 USD/TEU for the West and East coasts of the US, respectively [13]