形势研判更有信心、宏观政策更有定力，关键是结合国际经贸斗争形势把握国内经济工作 的重心和政策节奏。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/赵宏鹤 货币政策再提"双降"。 货币政策也补充了一些细节，例如提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工 具"，再提"双降"。去年会议明确提出要"适时降准降息"，但央行没有急于在年底年初落地，直到今年 4·25政治局会议再提"适时降准降息"，适逢中美关税摩擦处于高峰，央行于5月7日宣布"双降"。 "灵 活高效" 比"适时"的时效性要求更低，货币政策的定位依然是应对性和配合性。除"双降"外，多种政 策工具也包括国债买卖，结构性定向降息。 扩大内需的执牛耳者。 具体工作方面，"坚持内需主导"为"八大坚持"之首。消费政策的重心在优化结 构和服务消费，对"两新"要求为"优化政策实施"，对比去年则为"加力扩围实施"，另外又提出"释放服 务消费潜力"，表明服务消费有望接棒商品消费成为明年增量。 投资"止跌回稳"的要求不常见 ，背景是今年下半年以来固定资产投资陷入历史少见的负增长，虽然可 能与数据"挤水分"有关，也反映出内生动能和资金来源不足。明年的资金来源，一方面是"适当增加中 央预算内投资规模"，"优化' ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the Chinese economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the shift from real estate as the main economic driver to the emergence of the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, and new business models) as the new engine of growth [4][7]. Group 1: Economic Transformation - The real estate sector has gradually exited the central stage of the economy, with GDP growth rates in regions heavily tied to real estate, such as Guangdong, lagging behind others like Jiangsu and Zhejiang [4]. - By 2025, the contribution of real estate development investment to GDP is expected to drop significantly from 10.2% in 2020 to around 5.1% [4][30]. - The "three new economies" are projected to increase their share of China's GDP from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2024, indicating a growing importance of high-tech manufacturing and information technology investments [7]. Group 2: Credit Market and De-leveraging - The credit market is showing a clear trend of de-leveraging from real estate, with new real estate loans decreasing by 330 billion yuan from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - The shift reflects a broader economic transition where low-leverage sectors are becoming the main drivers of growth, as households work to reduce debt [5]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - Despite trade tensions, China's export share remained stable at 14.2% in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in exports to Africa and the Middle East [13][21][24]. - The automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, has become a key player in boosting China's export performance, with exports projected to reach 586 million units by 2024, surpassing Germany and Japan [13]. Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market is experiencing a second downturn, with housing prices expected to revert to levels seen in 2016, and total sales area projected to decline by nearly 50% from 2020 highs [30][31]. - The overall demand for real estate is stabilizing, with indicators like the price-to-income ratio and rental yields approaching mid-term stability [30]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Spending - The impact of real estate on consumer spending is diminishing, as evidenced by rising retail sales growth in first-tier cities despite falling housing prices [36]. - Service consumption is expected to grow, supported by policy measures, while traditional goods consumption faces challenges due to the decline in "old-for-new" subsidies [43][44]. Group 6: Price Trends and Inflation - The article anticipates a gradual recovery in prices driven by economic recovery, with CPI expected to rise to around 0.2% in 2026, influenced by various factors including the stabilization of housing prices [45][55]. - The PPI is projected to show a "front low, back high" trend, with overall PPI expected to be around -1.3% for the year [55].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the focus of the Guojin Macro Team on macroeconomic, policy analysis, and financial market research, aiming to provide in-depth and forward-looking analysis and investment advice [1] - The Guojin Securities Research Institute is in a rapid development phase and is committed to building an industry-leading macro research system, currently seeking senior macro analysts [1] Group 2 - The company offers a competitive salary system, an objective and transparent assessment system, a clear career development path, and a flexible working environment to provide ample growth opportunities for talented individuals [3] - The job locations are in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [4] Group 3 - The requirements for applicants include a master's degree or above in economics, finance, mathematics, physics, statistics, or related fields from well-known domestic or international institutions, with at least 2 years of research experience covering domestic and global macro, asset allocation, investment strategies, fixed income, policy, and real estate [6] - Candidates should have experience in sell-side or buy-side research, rich roadshow experience, solid macro analysis skills, a self-constructed macro research framework, strong logical thinking and market insight, as well as excellent written and communication skills [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the rapid development of the Guojin Securities Research Institute, focusing on building a leading macro research system in the industry [1] - The macro team specializes in macroeconomic, policy analysis, and financial market research, aiming to provide in-depth and forward-looking analysis and investment advice [1] - The company is currently recruiting senior macro analysts to enhance its research capabilities and market influence [1] Group 2 - The company offers a competitive salary system, an objective and transparent assessment system, a clear career development path, and a flexible working environment [3] - The work locations available are Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [4] - Applicants are required to have a master's degree or above in relevant fields such as economics, finance, mathematics, physics, or statistics from well-known domestic or international institutions [6] Group 3 - Candidates should possess at least 2 years of research experience covering domestic and global macroeconomics, asset allocation, investment strategies, fixed income, policy, and real estate [6] - Experience in sell-side or buy-side research and rich roadshow experience are preferred [6] - Strong macro analysis skills, the ability to build a self-constructed macro research framework, and excellent written and communication skills are essential [6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall macro policy framework is not expected to change significantly, with the key focus on rhythm and direction [1] Summary by Sections Economic Work and Policy Direction - The December Politburo meeting serves as a precursor to the Central Economic Work Conference, outlining core ideas and priorities for the upcoming year [3] - The meeting emphasizes the need to better coordinate domestic economic work with international trade struggles, indicating that domestic stability will be prioritized during heightened international tensions [3] - The introduction of "developing new quality productivity in a localized manner" and advancing the construction of a unified national market suggests a focus on optimizing local government actions and addressing market competition issues [3] Economic Growth Targets - The Politburo aims for a "good start" to the 14th Five-Year Plan, suggesting a growth target of around 5% for the next year, necessitating the use of existing and new policies to stimulate the economy [3] - A recent announcement of 500 billion yuan in new financial tools is aimed at project investments to kickstart economic activity [3] Macro Policy Implementation - The meeting reiterates the commitment to a more proactive macro policy, maintaining an active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, while hinting at a slight increase in fiscal policy space [4] - The emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" and the integration of existing and new policies indicates a need for careful monitoring of policy implementation based on external conditions [4] Focus on Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is prioritized as the main driver of economic work, with a strong emphasis on improving livelihoods and consumption, aligning with the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session [4] - The goal is to build a strong domestic market to navigate complex external environments, requiring more policy resources directed towards improving living standards and enhancing consumer capacity [4] Key Work Areas for the Coming Year - The meeting outlines eight key work areas, maintaining the order of priorities: domestic demand, technology/industry, reform, and openness, with risk prevention now ranked lower, indicating a reduction in systemic risk challenges [5][6] - Notably, the real estate sector, which previously faced significant scrutiny, is not mentioned in the meeting's discussions, reflecting a shift in focus as its contribution to GDP is projected to decline further [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy in 2026 is expected to operate in a state of imbalance, balancing between stock market performance and electoral votes, with a widening gap between AI-related sectors and the real economy [1][3][109] Economic Structure: K-Shaped Economy - The K-shaped economic structure will further strengthen the upper tier while the lower tier continues to seek a bottom, with a growing divide between AI and non-AI sectors [6][70] - The share of equity assets in net assets has increased significantly, contributing approximately $20 trillion to wealth growth from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025, with financial assets rising to 30% of total assets [7][70] - AI-related investments are expected to drive GDP growth significantly, with a projected contribution of 1.57 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025, surpassing private consumption [9][70] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The risk of "re-inflation" is a major concern for the U.S. economy, driven by continued monetary easing and fiscal policies aimed at winning midterm elections [5][102] - Core CPI is expected to show a low point in Q1 2026, followed by a gradual increase, with the Fed's 2% inflation target likely unattainable in a non-recessionary environment [4][30] - Different inflation scenarios have been proposed, including a baseline scenario where core CPI gradually rises to 0.3% by Q4 2026 [31][32] Fiscal Policy: Focus on Midterm Elections - Fiscal policy will be heavily influenced by the upcoming midterm elections, with a projected deficit rate of over 6% in 2026, potentially approaching 7% [52][54] - The implementation of the "Great Beautiful Act" is expected to provide significant fiscal stimulus, with tax reductions estimated to lower corporate tax burdens by approximately $137 billion [55][61] - Individual tax incentives from the same act are projected to yield around $600 billion in benefits for households [59][64] Economic Outcomes: Deepening Supply-Demand Contradictions - The U.S. economy is likely to face a more pronounced state of stagflation, with monetary and fiscal policies only supporting the lower tier of the K-shaped economy without addressing income and distribution imbalances [70][102] - Key supply-demand contradictions will emerge, particularly in labor, industrial structure, and development entities [71][70] Risks: AI Narrative and Macro Environment - The sustainability of AI-related expenditures is a significant risk, with major tech companies facing increasing reliance on external financing [96][99] - The U.S. economy may experience extreme conditions, either too cold or too hot, leading to re-inflation risks that could further challenge the AI narrative [102][108]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and social welfare in China's economic growth strategy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a projected budget deficit rate of around 4.2% for 2026, focusing on enhancing living standards and consumption [4][6][10]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.2% to achieve a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, with a potential growth rate of 5.0% [4][6]. - The shift in macroeconomic policy since June 2025 indicates a stronger emphasis on domestic demand, particularly in the areas of social welfare and consumption [5][6]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Budget Allocation - The 2026 budget is expected to increase spending in social welfare areas by approximately 320 billion yuan, with a projected budget deficit of 6.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a 520 billion yuan increase from 2025 [11][10]. - In a more optimistic scenario, if child-rearing subsidies and pension standards are raised, the budget deficit could reach 6.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 960 billion yuan from 2025 [11]. Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - The government plans to enhance support for families with children through subsidies and free preschool education, with a budget of 1 trillion yuan for child-rearing subsidies and 500 billion yuan for expanding preschool education [7][8]. - For elderly care, the basic pension is expected to increase by at least 50 yuan, with additional subsidies for elderly care services projected to cost between 500 to 800 billion yuan [8]. Group 4: Consumer Spending and Service Sector Growth - The article highlights the need to boost service consumption, which is expected to grow significantly as the economy transitions, with service consumption growth outpacing overall retail sales growth [13][16]. - The government plans to issue consumption subsidies funded by special bonds, focusing on sectors like tourism, culture, and sports to stimulate consumer spending [16]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Effective Investment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for effective investment in urban renewal and public services, with a projected issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special bonds for urban renewal projects [18][19]. - The government aims to maintain a reasonable growth rate in investment while ensuring that it aligns with high-quality development goals [17][18]. Group 6: Debt Management and Financial Stability - The article discusses the continuation of policies to manage hidden debts and repay corporate debts, with a planned issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds [23][24]. - The overall fiscal deficit is projected to reach 13.18 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a slight increase from 2025, with a focus on maintaining financial stability while supporting growth [26].

我们面对的是联储的"人造迷雾"，强行制造降息悬念，增加预期弹性；已有数据完全足 以支撑12月再次降息的发生。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 在10月的FOMC中，鲍威尔将当前环境称之为"迷雾中开车，需小心行驶"，并将市场预期向12月不降 息方向引导。自那之后，联储官员普遍转向鹰派，强调通胀的上行风险并支持12月暂停降息：12月降 息预期一度从完全定价跌至不足30%。 鲍威尔的本意或是引导市场定价预期的回摆，保持预期管理的有效性，但从结果来看有些玩脱了，至少 9月非农的数据指向了12月继续降息的必要性。 由于非官方的ADP小非农以及谘商会等数据在9-10月表现较差，此前市场对于9月非农的新增就业预 期并不高（约5万人左右水平）；与此同时，在"供需双弱"的背景下，市场却并没有对失业率的上行形 成一致预期。换言之，此前6-8月失业率的再度上行并没有得到足够的重视，但这恰恰是9月非农报告 中最"扎眼"的部分。 哪怕9月新增就业再怎么超预期，也仅在11.9万人水平；考虑到6月与8月都是负增长，在如此大的波 动中，更无法得出非农已经"企稳"的结论。更何况，从三个月平均增长水平来看，与今年上半年都有 明显差距。 在劳动力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming midterm elections are critical for the Trump administration, with potential losses posing significant risks to its political power and policy direction [3][4][6]. Group 1: Trump's Political Landscape - Losing the midterm elections would be a heavy burden for Trump, impacting both domestic and foreign policy [4][5]. - Historical trends indicate that the party of the sitting president often loses control of the House of Representatives during midterm elections, with 15 out of 20 instances resulting in losses [10][12]. - The Republican Party currently holds a slim majority in the House, with 219 seats compared to 214 for the Democrats, making the retention of control challenging [7][11]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - The U.S. is facing rising living costs, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing from a low of 2.3% to around 3%, driven by tariff policies [11]. - Unemployment risks are growing due to structural changes in the economy, particularly from advancements in artificial intelligence, which are displacing lower-level jobs [11][12]. - Wealth inequality is worsening, with the top 1% of households owning 30.9% of the nation's wealth, highlighting a significant disparity in wealth distribution [12][18]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The Trump administration is expected to focus on alleviating existing economic issues while avoiding the creation of new problems, particularly in light of the upcoming elections [17][20]. - A potential policy combination for the first half of next year includes a reduction in tariffs and fiscal easing, although this carries the risk of rising inflation [20]. - The administration may need to implement new fiscal plans to address economic disparities, potentially through tax cuts aimed at middle and low-income groups [19][20]. Group 4: U.S.-China Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China summit is expected to focus on maintaining stable relations, with potential agreements on tariffs and trade measures [23][24]. - The administration's approach to China will likely be influenced by the need to address domestic issues while navigating international relations [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a negative chain reaction characterized by declining income, shrinking consumption, and weak employment, exacerbated by the pervasive influence of AI on various economic sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Downturn - The cyclical downturn in the U.S. economy has become increasingly evident since the beginning of the year, with key indicators such as employment, consumption, and service sectors showing continuous decline [5]. - Tariff policies have significantly disrupted the economic rhythm, leading to a preemptive economic activity surge in early months, followed by a consistent decline in consumer spending and inventory accumulation starting in May [9]. - The sales volume of corrugated boxes, a retail barometer, hit a 10-year low in Q3, reflecting the current sluggish state of U.S. consumer spending [9][10]. - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 50.3, indicating deteriorating economic performance [17]. Group 2: Temporary Shocks - The U.S. government shutdown has become a significant economic and livelihood crisis, lasting 43 days, surpassing the previous record [18]. - The shutdown has put immense pressure on the job market, affecting approximately 2.3 million federal employees and contractors, leading to reduced consumer spending and potential public safety risks [19]. - The shutdown has resulted in an estimated $24 billion in federal spending being paused, with projections indicating a 0.1% economic growth decline for each week of the shutdown, potentially leading to a 2% drop in Q4 growth [19]. - The economic pressure is extending from the middle class to low-income groups, with SNAP benefits halved, impacting retail sales by an estimated 1.5%-2% [22]. Group 3: Structural Distortions - There is a notable "K-shaped" divergence in U.S. exports, with AI-related sectors performing exceptionally well while traditional consumer goods exports continue to weaken [23]. - AI investments are driving demand for chips and related infrastructure, while simultaneously causing electricity prices to rise due to increased consumption from AI data centers, which now account for about 5% of the U.S. power generation [24]. - AI-related job cuts are occurring as companies streamline operations, with significant layoffs reported by major tech firms like Amazon and Meta, further exacerbating employment pressures [28]. - The economic landscape is increasingly polarized, with high-end consumer spending remaining robust while lower-income consumers face significant financial strain, leading to a shift towards discount retailers [29].