Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the Chinese economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the shift from real estate as the main economic driver to the emergence of the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, and new business models) as the new engine of growth [4][7]. Group 1: Economic Transformation - The real estate sector has gradually exited the central stage of the economy, with GDP growth rates in regions heavily tied to real estate, such as Guangdong, lagging behind others like Jiangsu and Zhejiang [4]. - By 2025, the contribution of real estate development investment to GDP is expected to drop significantly from 10.2% in 2020 to around 5.1% [4][30]. - The "three new economies" are projected to increase their share of China's GDP from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2024, indicating a growing importance of high-tech manufacturing and information technology investments [7]. Group 2: Credit Market and De-leveraging - The credit market is showing a clear trend of de-leveraging from real estate, with new real estate loans decreasing by 330 billion yuan from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - The shift reflects a broader economic transition where low-leverage sectors are becoming the main drivers of growth, as households work to reduce debt [5]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - Despite trade tensions, China's export share remained stable at 14.2% in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in exports to Africa and the Middle East [13][21][24]. - The automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, has become a key player in boosting China's export performance, with exports projected to reach 586 million units by 2024, surpassing Germany and Japan [13]. Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market is experiencing a second downturn, with housing prices expected to revert to levels seen in 2016, and total sales area projected to decline by nearly 50% from 2020 highs [30][31]. - The overall demand for real estate is stabilizing, with indicators like the price-to-income ratio and rental yields approaching mid-term stability [30]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Spending - The impact of real estate on consumer spending is diminishing, as evidenced by rising retail sales growth in first-tier cities despite falling housing prices [36]. - Service consumption is expected to grow, supported by policy measures, while traditional goods consumption faces challenges due to the decline in "old-for-new" subsidies [43][44]. Group 6: Price Trends and Inflation - The article anticipates a gradual recovery in prices driven by economic recovery, with CPI expected to rise to around 0.2% in 2026, influenced by various factors including the stabilization of housing prices [45][55]. - The PPI is projected to show a "front low, back high" trend, with overall PPI expected to be around -1.3% for the year [55].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the focus of the Guojin Macro Team on macroeconomic, policy analysis, and financial market research, aiming to provide in-depth and forward-looking analysis and investment advice [1] - The Guojin Securities Research Institute is in a rapid development phase and is committed to building an industry-leading macro research system, currently seeking senior macro analysts [1] Group 2 - The company offers a competitive salary system, an objective and transparent assessment system, a clear career development path, and a flexible working environment to provide ample growth opportunities for talented individuals [3] - The job locations are in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [4] Group 3 - The requirements for applicants include a master's degree or above in economics, finance, mathematics, physics, statistics, or related fields from well-known domestic or international institutions, with at least 2 years of research experience covering domestic and global macro, asset allocation, investment strategies, fixed income, policy, and real estate [6] - Candidates should have experience in sell-side or buy-side research, rich roadshow experience, solid macro analysis skills, a self-constructed macro research framework, strong logical thinking and market insight, as well as excellent written and communication skills [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the rapid development of the Guojin Securities Research Institute, focusing on building a leading macro research system in the industry [1] - The macro team specializes in macroeconomic, policy analysis, and financial market research, aiming to provide in-depth and forward-looking analysis and investment advice [1] - The company is currently recruiting senior macro analysts to enhance its research capabilities and market influence [1] Group 2 - The company offers a competitive salary system, an objective and transparent assessment system, a clear career development path, and a flexible working environment [3] - The work locations available are Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [4] - Applicants are required to have a master's degree or above in relevant fields such as economics, finance, mathematics, physics, or statistics from well-known domestic or international institutions [6] Group 3 - Candidates should possess at least 2 years of research experience covering domestic and global macroeconomics, asset allocation, investment strategies, fixed income, policy, and real estate [6] - Experience in sell-side or buy-side research and rich roadshow experience are preferred [6] - Strong macro analysis skills, the ability to build a self-constructed macro research framework, and excellent written and communication skills are essential [6]

宏观政策的整体格局不会有显著变化，关键是节奏和方向。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/赵宏鹤 12月政治局会议历来研究部署第二年经济工作，是中央经济工作会议的"前哨站"，通过12月政治局会 议通稿，可以让我们了解关于明年经济工作的核心思想和最高关切。 第一，通稿提到"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争" ，这一表述是在今年4月政治局会议首次提 出，虽然近期外部经贸环境相对平稳，重提这一表述仍有较强的指导意义。国内经济和国际经贸既相互 促进，又各有侧重。当国际经贸斗争趋于激烈时，需要下更大力气稳定国内经济，而当国际经贸斗争趋 于缓和时，需要进一步推动结构性改革等中长期议题，这为理解明年的增量政策节奏提供了参考。 相比去年经济工作会议，通稿新增"因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"，标志 着优化地方政府行为、约束市场竞争秩序、综合整治内卷（市场简称为"反内卷"）将是明年的重点工 作。 第二，通稿要求"实现'十五五'良好开局" ，意味着高层对经济增速有一定诉求，明年经济增长目标可 能依然定在"5%左右"，这需要用足存量政策、推出增量政策。近期发布的5000亿元新设金融工具， 主要用于项目投资，指向明年经济起步或 ...

2026年美国经济最大的风险是"再通胀"，这源自于经济持续走弱后联储超预期的持续降息，和特朗 普"全力拼中选"所推行的更宽松的财政政策；进而引发对AI叙事的进一步怀疑，以及更大的预期波 动。 通胀是明年中选的硬约束，特朗普会在明年11月中选前尽量避免明显的再通胀，但融资条件（金融环 境）又是AI叙事的硬约束。特朗普需要平衡好选票（中期选举）与股票（AI叙事）之间的关系：既要维 持美国K型经济的下层基础，又要避免造成AI泡沫破裂，导致经济滑向深层次的衰退。 2026年的美国经济将在失衡中围绕股票与选票的平衡展开。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 前言： 当下的美国经济正处在全面放缓的过程中：就业——消费链条放缓、失业率的上行趋势正在持 续。即便2026年美国的财政和货币双宽，经济结构的分化仍将延续，AI相关领域的火热与实体经济的 疲软形成"冷热缺口"将继续扩大而非弥合。 过去15个月，美国经济经历了150bp降息后并未得到明显提振，而将"AI叙事进行到底"则需要更加宽 松的货币政策。同时，为了赢得中选，2026年美国将采取更加宽松的财政政策，在《大美丽法案》逐 步落地的基础上，赤字率水平将回到6%，乃至更高水平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and social welfare in China's economic growth strategy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with a projected budget deficit rate of around 4.2% for 2026, focusing on enhancing living standards and consumption [4][6][10]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.2% to achieve a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, with a potential growth rate of 5.0% [4][6]. - The shift in macroeconomic policy since June 2025 indicates a stronger emphasis on domestic demand, particularly in the areas of social welfare and consumption [5][6]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Budget Allocation - The 2026 budget is expected to increase spending in social welfare areas by approximately 320 billion yuan, with a projected budget deficit of 6.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a 520 billion yuan increase from 2025 [11][10]. - In a more optimistic scenario, if child-rearing subsidies and pension standards are raised, the budget deficit could reach 6.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 960 billion yuan from 2025 [11]. Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - The government plans to enhance support for families with children through subsidies and free preschool education, with a budget of 1 trillion yuan for child-rearing subsidies and 500 billion yuan for expanding preschool education [7][8]. - For elderly care, the basic pension is expected to increase by at least 50 yuan, with additional subsidies for elderly care services projected to cost between 500 to 800 billion yuan [8]. Group 4: Consumer Spending and Service Sector Growth - The article highlights the need to boost service consumption, which is expected to grow significantly as the economy transitions, with service consumption growth outpacing overall retail sales growth [13][16]. - The government plans to issue consumption subsidies funded by special bonds, focusing on sectors like tourism, culture, and sports to stimulate consumer spending [16]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Effective Investment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for effective investment in urban renewal and public services, with a projected issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special bonds for urban renewal projects [18][19]. - The government aims to maintain a reasonable growth rate in investment while ensuring that it aligns with high-quality development goals [17][18]. Group 6: Debt Management and Financial Stability - The article discusses the continuation of policies to manage hidden debts and repay corporate debts, with a planned issuance of 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds [23][24]. - The overall fiscal deficit is projected to reach 13.18 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting a slight increase from 2025, with a focus on maintaining financial stability while supporting growth [26].

我们面对的是联储的"人造迷雾"，强行制造降息悬念，增加预期弹性；已有数据完全足 以支撑12月再次降息的发生。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 在10月的FOMC中，鲍威尔将当前环境称之为"迷雾中开车，需小心行驶"，并将市场预期向12月不降 息方向引导。自那之后，联储官员普遍转向鹰派，强调通胀的上行风险并支持12月暂停降息：12月降 息预期一度从完全定价跌至不足30%。 鲍威尔的本意或是引导市场定价预期的回摆，保持预期管理的有效性，但从结果来看有些玩脱了，至少 9月非农的数据指向了12月继续降息的必要性。 由于非官方的ADP小非农以及谘商会等数据在9-10月表现较差，此前市场对于9月非农的新增就业预 期并不高（约5万人左右水平）；与此同时，在"供需双弱"的背景下，市场却并没有对失业率的上行形 成一致预期。换言之，此前6-8月失业率的再度上行并没有得到足够的重视，但这恰恰是9月非农报告 中最"扎眼"的部分。 哪怕9月新增就业再怎么超预期，也仅在11.9万人水平；考虑到6月与8月都是负增长，在如此大的波 动中，更无法得出非农已经"企稳"的结论。更何况，从三个月平均增长水平来看，与今年上半年都有 明显差距。 在劳动力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming midterm elections are critical for the Trump administration, with potential losses posing significant risks to its political power and policy direction [3][4][6]. Group 1: Trump's Political Landscape - Losing the midterm elections would be a heavy burden for Trump, impacting both domestic and foreign policy [4][5]. - Historical trends indicate that the party of the sitting president often loses control of the House of Representatives during midterm elections, with 15 out of 20 instances resulting in losses [10][12]. - The Republican Party currently holds a slim majority in the House, with 219 seats compared to 214 for the Democrats, making the retention of control challenging [7][11]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - The U.S. is facing rising living costs, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing from a low of 2.3% to around 3%, driven by tariff policies [11]. - Unemployment risks are growing due to structural changes in the economy, particularly from advancements in artificial intelligence, which are displacing lower-level jobs [11][12]. - Wealth inequality is worsening, with the top 1% of households owning 30.9% of the nation's wealth, highlighting a significant disparity in wealth distribution [12][18]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The Trump administration is expected to focus on alleviating existing economic issues while avoiding the creation of new problems, particularly in light of the upcoming elections [17][20]. - A potential policy combination for the first half of next year includes a reduction in tariffs and fiscal easing, although this carries the risk of rising inflation [20]. - The administration may need to implement new fiscal plans to address economic disparities, potentially through tax cuts aimed at middle and low-income groups [19][20]. Group 4: U.S.-China Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China summit is expected to focus on maintaining stable relations, with potential agreements on tariffs and trade measures [23][24]. - The administration's approach to China will likely be influenced by the need to address domestic issues while navigating international relations [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a negative chain reaction characterized by declining income, shrinking consumption, and weak employment, exacerbated by the pervasive influence of AI on various economic sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Downturn - The cyclical downturn in the U.S. economy has become increasingly evident since the beginning of the year, with key indicators such as employment, consumption, and service sectors showing continuous decline [5]. - Tariff policies have significantly disrupted the economic rhythm, leading to a preemptive economic activity surge in early months, followed by a consistent decline in consumer spending and inventory accumulation starting in May [9]. - The sales volume of corrugated boxes, a retail barometer, hit a 10-year low in Q3, reflecting the current sluggish state of U.S. consumer spending [9][10]. - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 50.3, indicating deteriorating economic performance [17]. Group 2: Temporary Shocks - The U.S. government shutdown has become a significant economic and livelihood crisis, lasting 43 days, surpassing the previous record [18]. - The shutdown has put immense pressure on the job market, affecting approximately 2.3 million federal employees and contractors, leading to reduced consumer spending and potential public safety risks [19]. - The shutdown has resulted in an estimated $24 billion in federal spending being paused, with projections indicating a 0.1% economic growth decline for each week of the shutdown, potentially leading to a 2% drop in Q4 growth [19]. - The economic pressure is extending from the middle class to low-income groups, with SNAP benefits halved, impacting retail sales by an estimated 1.5%-2% [22]. Group 3: Structural Distortions - There is a notable "K-shaped" divergence in U.S. exports, with AI-related sectors performing exceptionally well while traditional consumer goods exports continue to weaken [23]. - AI investments are driving demand for chips and related infrastructure, while simultaneously causing electricity prices to rise due to increased consumption from AI data centers, which now account for about 5% of the U.S. power generation [24]. - AI-related job cuts are occurring as companies streamline operations, with significant layoffs reported by major tech firms like Amazon and Meta, further exacerbating employment pressures [28]. - The economic landscape is increasingly polarized, with high-end consumer spending remaining robust while lower-income consumers face significant financial strain, leading to a shift towards discount retailers [29].

Group 1: AI and Economic Impact - AI-related investments are projected to contribute 1.57 percentage points to the US GDP growth in the first half of 2025, surpassing the contribution from private consumption [6] - The nominal value added from data processing services in the US GDP has increased significantly, reaching 1.75%, while manufacturing's share has dropped below 10% for the first time since 1995 [10] - The real value added per capita in AI-related industries has grown at an annualized rate of 12.66%, significantly higher than the 1.56% growth in manufacturing [13] Group 2: AI and Employment - The penetration of AI technology in the workforce is still low, with only 6 out of 20 major industries exceeding a 10% usage rate [31] - The impact of AI on employment is overstated, as the current job weakness is more related to the previous interest rate hikes rather than AI [31][34] - AI's primary utility remains in information search and marketing, with limited adoption in enhancing productivity through new workflows [39] Group 3: AI and Financial Sector - The capital expenditures of tech companies are increasing, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, particularly among major players like Microsoft and Amazon [50][51] - The total issuance of bonds by hyperscaler companies reached $103.8 billion in 2025, indicating a significant reliance on external financing [56] - The rapid growth of private credit, particularly in the tech sector, raises concerns about transparency and potential vulnerabilities in the financial system [72]