Core Viewpoint - The main pricing themes for A-shares in 2026 are centered around AI and geopolitical factors, reflecting the U.S. focus on technology for growth and geopolitical selection, while another theme that has not been fully priced in is "anti-involution," corresponding to China's pursuit of reform for momentum [2][9]. Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, the A-share market has shown a "good start" with a cumulative increase of 5.2% in the Wind All A index and an average daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan. The Sci-Tech 50, CSI 500, and National 2000 indices have led the gains with increases of 11.9%, 11.3%, and 9.6% respectively, indicating that technology and small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap stocks [4]. - The leading sectors include media, computer, non-ferrous metals, and military industries, with year-to-date increases of 16.0%, 14.0%, 14.0%, and 9.0% respectively, reflecting the current market's focus on "AI and geopolitics" [4]. AI Impact on Economy - AI's influence is evident in both the A-share market trends and marginal changes in the macro economy. In December 2025, China's PPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the highest monthly increase since 2024, with AI contributing to improvements in PPI, particularly in non-ferrous and technology sectors [6][9]. - In December 2025, prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries increased by 3.7% and 2.8% respectively, driven by AI-related electricity demand, which significantly boosted prices of metals like copper, silver, tungsten, tantalum, aluminum, lithium, cobalt, and nickel [6]. Pricing Dynamics - In December 2025, prices for external storage devices and integrated circuits rose by 15.3% and 2.4% respectively, with AI-related high-end chips occupying advanced process resources, leading to structural tensions in chip availability. Samsung and SK Hynix plan to raise server DRAM prices by 60%-70% in Q1 2026, significantly higher than previous cycles [8]. - The implementation of "anti-involution" has also contributed to the month-on-month recovery of PPI, with lithium-ion battery manufacturing prices increasing by 1.0% and the price of complete new energy vehicles turning from a decline of 0.2% to an increase of 0.1% [8]. Strategic Choices - The improvement in PPI reflects strategic choices made by China and the U.S. in the current global macro context, which are expected to become the two main pricing themes for A-shares in 2026. The "AI and geopolitics" theme corresponds to the U.S. seeking new productive forces in a stagflation environment, while the "anti-involution" theme aligns with China's push for reform to drive momentum through fiscal and income distribution reforms [9]. Anti-Involution Developments - The "anti-involution" theme is entering a new phase in 2026, as highlighted by recent policy discussions emphasizing the need to address malicious low-price dumping and promote healthy competition [10]. - The core of "anti-involution" in the industry is "quality over price," with regulatory bodies emphasizing compliance in price competition within the photovoltaic industry and addressing irrational competition behaviors [11]. - Recent policy changes, such as the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products, reflect the national-level commitment to "anti-involution," allowing leading companies to raise prices to absorb costs and redirect funds to domestic consumption [12][13]. Regulatory Environment - Strengthened anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition regulations signal an acceleration of "anti-involution," with the market regulator engaging with leading companies in the silicon material and photovoltaic sectors to prevent collusion and ensure fair competition [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the 2026 policy will focus on investment as a key driver to achieve a strong economic start, with state-owned enterprises playing a crucial role in infrastructure investment [4][5][8]. Investment Policy Focus - The 2026 policy aims to leverage investment to stimulate economic growth, particularly in infrastructure, as fixed asset investment has been experiencing negative growth since the second half of 2025 [5][6]. - The government plans to implement major projects that can drive overall economic activity and support current demand [7]. Infrastructure Investment - The focus for 2026 will be on infrastructure construction, including projects like parking lots, charging stations, and urban renewal, with a significant increase in investment in social welfare sectors such as elderly care and healthcare [7][8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 220 billion yuan for early-stage construction projects, supporting various sectors including urban underground utilities and ecological restoration [7]. Role of State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises are expected to take the lead in implementing major infrastructure projects, ensuring robust support for traditional infrastructure updates and new infrastructure development [8]. Financial Support for Investment - There is substantial financial backing for the investment initiatives, including 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and 200 billion yuan for project construction debt limits [9]. - The government is also focusing on resolving local fiscal difficulties and ensuring that necessary funds are available for investment projects [11]. Local Fiscal Management - The article highlights the shift in local fiscal management from merely ensuring basic services to also addressing debt repayment and clearing outstanding payments to businesses [11]. - The emphasis is on a sustainable fiscal approach that considers local conditions and avoids one-size-fits-all solutions [12][13]. Performance Evaluation and Policy Implementation - The importance of a differentiated evaluation system for local governments is stressed, aiming to ensure that performance metrics align with long-term sustainable growth rather than short-term gains [14]. - The article suggests that local governments will adopt a more balanced approach to development, focusing on their unique strengths and capabilities [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex relationship between the U.S. and Venezuela, particularly focusing on the potential for U.S. intervention in Venezuela's oil industry and the implications for oil prices leading up to the 2024 U.S. elections [4][5][17]. Group 1: U.S. and Venezuela Relations - Trump's longstanding animosity towards the Maduro government has led to a series of sanctions and actions aimed at undermining it, which aligns with his political strategy to consolidate support among the MAGA base [4][5]. - The U.S. has historically been a major importer of Venezuelan oil, but sanctions have drastically reduced Venezuela's oil production from a peak of 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s to about 1 million barrels per day in recent years [7][8]. Group 2: Venezuela's Oil Production Challenges - Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves globally, with approximately 303 billion barrels, yet its actual production is severely limited due to aging infrastructure, lack of investment, and international sanctions [7][8]. - The country's oil production is heavily reliant on the availability of diluents and external technical support, primarily from Iran and China, to process its heavy crude oil [8][9]. Group 3: Potential U.S. Intervention Strategies - The article suggests that any U.S. intervention would likely focus on establishing control over exportable oil through partnerships with U.S. companies rather than direct takeover of oil fields [18]. - A potential strategy could involve a combination of sanctions relief and joint ventures with U.S. firms to increase production while ensuring compliance with U.S. regulations [18][19]. Group 4: Impact on Global Oil Prices - The article posits that if the U.S. successfully increases Venezuelan oil production, it may not lead to an immediate drop in oil prices due to OPEC+'s control over supply and the existing risk premium in the market [19][20]. - Even with a potential increase in Venezuelan production, OPEC+ has the capacity to adjust its output to stabilize global oil prices, indicating that the market dynamics are complex and interdependent [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of gold and silver in the context of market dynamics influenced by AI narratives and geopolitical factors, suggesting that gold remains a favorable asset amidst disorder, while silver, with its dual attributes, may exhibit higher elasticity as AI narratives evolve [2][35]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of 2025, the London spot gold has risen by 71%, marking the highest annual increase since 1979, despite a slowdown in central bank purchases and a surge in speculative market investments [4]. - The central bank gold purchases have increased significantly, with quarterly purchases rising from an average of 100-200 tons to 200-400 tons post-2022, indicating a shift in global monetary policy and geopolitical dynamics [5]. - The current gold reserve percentage held by central banks is approximately 22%, up 7 percentage points from three years ago, but still below historical levels during significant geopolitical shifts [5]. Group 2: Market Funds and Investment Strategies - Investment institutions view gold as a crucial hedging tool due to its low volatility and low correlation with traditional assets, with typical allocations in risk parity strategies being 8%-10% [13]. - The correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds has been high, necessitating alternative assets like gold for diversification, especially in a high inflation environment where traditional bond hedging is less effective [15]. - A shift in asset allocation strategies is observed, with major banks adopting a "60/20/20" model (60% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% gold) to combat inflation and market volatility [16]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical analysis shows that gold prices have not significantly exceeded previous highs, with current trends indicating a potential for continued appreciation linked to U.S. debt levels and inflation [20][25]. - The article suggests that unless AI technology significantly enhances productivity and fiscal efficiency, the gold bull market may persist, as the correlation between gold price increases and U.S. debt remains strong [25]. - The potential spillover effects of the gold bull market could benefit silver and other strategic metals, as they are increasingly viewed as complementary assets in the current geopolitical landscape [26][32]. Group 4: Silver and Other Strategic Metals - Silver, possessing both "gold-like" properties and relevance to AI narratives, is expected to show stronger elasticity in the market, particularly as AI narratives become clearer [35]. - The relationship between gold and other strategic metals like copper is highlighted, with expectations of a mean reversion in their price ratios as geopolitical tensions drive demand for these assets [32][34]. - The strategic metal index constructed from 19 rare metals indicates a potential bull market that may align with the gold bull market, driven by both private and public sector demand [34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses whether gold has experienced an "excessive surge" in value, drawing historical comparisons to assess current market conditions and trends [2] Group 1 - Historical data indicates that gold prices have seen significant fluctuations, with notable peaks and troughs that reflect broader economic conditions [2] - The current price of gold is analyzed in relation to past performance, suggesting that recent increases may not be sustainable [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic factors that influence gold prices, such as inflation and geopolitical tensions [2] Group 2 - The analysis includes a comparison of gold's performance against other asset classes, highlighting its role as a safe haven during times of uncertainty [2] - The potential for future price corrections is discussed, with references to historical patterns of gold price behavior [2] - The article concludes by urging investors to consider both historical context and current market dynamics when evaluating gold as an investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's two major misjudgments in 2025 were overestimating the weakening of labor supply and the inflation level transmitted by tariffs, reflecting a lack of clarity regarding the "K-shaped economy" in the U.S. and the impact of AI [4][8]. Group 1: Labor Supply Weakness - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) first addressed labor supply issues in June 2025, attributing the decline in labor supply to significantly lower immigration numbers [11]. - There is a widespread misconception that anti-immigration policies began with Trump's administration; in reality, the Biden administration had already tightened illegal immigration by mid-2024 [11]. - Despite expectations, the U.S. unemployment rate began to rise again in June 2025, even as labor supply did not show significant reduction compared to previous trends [12]. - The anticipated reduction in labor supply due to immigration policies was only partially realized in swing states, with actual labor supply contraction occurring much later [14]. - Current non-farm employment growth is below 50,000 per month, indicating a significant decline in the "equilibrium employment level" [16]. - The Fed's misjudgment regarding labor supply is influenced by three objective factors: cautious evaluation of anti-immigration policies, the limited impact of these policies on domestic labor supply, and a weakening of real demand [19][20]. Group 2: Tariff-Induced Inflation - The Fed's overestimation of tariff-induced inflation is linked to the further weakening of the U.S. real economy, with Powell indicating a shift in perspective to view tariff impacts as a "one-time shock" [23]. - As of November, the U.S. had collected $164 billion in tariffs compared to the previous year, but many exemptions and "import rushes" mean that not all tariffs are borne by U.S. importers [23]. - The U.S. hotel industry has seen occupancy rates below 2024 levels for nine consecutive months, indicating a broader trend of weak consumer spending [24]. - Tariff-sensitive sectors have absorbed some of the tariff increases, leading to a decline in pre-tax profits for non-financial companies in the first quarter [27]. - Many U.S. companies are now viewing layoffs as a cost-control measure to offset tariff pressures, which could exacerbate economic downturns if the economy weakens further [30]. - The burden of tariffs varies significantly across different product categories, and this could amplify economic fluctuations in 2026, depending on the economic recovery or further downturns [33][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting dynamics of the U.S. economy, characterized by strong growth in GDP alongside rising unemployment, indicating a divergence between economic expansion and labor market performance [2][20]. Group 1: Economic Growth - The U.S. GDP for Q3 recorded an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.3%, while the year-on-year growth rate rose to 2.3%, still below the previous year's 2.8% [4]. - Key contributors to the GDP growth were consumer spending and net exports, contributing 2.4 and 1.6 percentage points respectively, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth due to underlying disparities [6][7]. - AI-related investments, despite a slowdown in growth, remain the fastest-growing investment category, contributing 0.8 percentage points to GDP, while private consumption contributed 1.1 percentage points, indicating a dual-engine growth model [7]. Group 2: Employment Trends - Despite strong economic growth, the unemployment rate is rising, and non-farm payroll growth is declining, highlighting a disconnect between economic performance and labor market health [20]. - The labor market's weakness is a significant concern, with indicators suggesting a potential increase in unemployment rates, as consumer confidence has also dipped [20][22]. Group 3: Consumer Spending - Private consumption showed strength overall, but there are signs of wealth disparity and overestimation, particularly as disposable income growth has slowed, making consumption increasingly reliant on wealth effects and borrowing [14][15]. - The report indicates that the strongest contributions to consumer spending came from healthcare, international travel, and entertainment, while broader service demand did not show exceptional seasonal performance [15][17]. Group 4: Investment Dynamics - Traditional sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as durable goods consumption and residential investment, continue to show weakness despite significant interest rate cuts, raising doubts about the effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating traditional economic recovery [12][23]. - The volatility in AI-related investments reflects a normalization after strong growth earlier in the year, indicating a gap between committed and realized investments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a "weak labor supply" is misleading; without the broad contributions of AI, the US economy is essentially on the brink of recession [4][21]. Group 1: Labor Market Dynamics - The US labor market is characterized by a peculiar balance of weak supply and demand, leading to a rising unemployment rate [4]. - The unemployment rate is becoming a critical indicator for observing the US economy, with a notable increase expected in the latter half of 2025 [5]. - The labor supply is not significantly impacted by illegal immigration, as the net inflow of immigrants has nearly stagnated [5]. - A "K-shaped" distribution is observed, where labor supply and demand are growing rapidly in deep red states, while blue states, which are more sensitive to economic changes, are experiencing a contraction in employment levels [5]. Group 2: Employment Trends - The non-farm payroll employment structure remains unbalanced, heavily reliant on the education and healthcare sectors, with minimal growth in other private sectors [10]. - A significant reduction in government employment due to a buyout program has led to the lowest year-on-year growth rate since May 2021 [11]. - The volatility in employment figures reflects broader economic uncertainties, impacting the "service-employment-income-consumption" chain [15]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The rising unemployment rate, including both U3 and U6 metrics, raises concerns about how to limit its further increase [7]. - The Federal Reserve's confidence in not seeing a further rise in unemployment by 2026 is questioned, especially as the current unemployment rate of 4.564% exceeds previous forecasts [7]. - Factors influencing the suppression of unemployment include the relative position to "neutral interest rates," the resolution of policy uncertainties, and the anticipated decline in labor supply [8]. Group 4: Wage Growth and Consumer Impact - Wage growth has slipped to 3.5%, presenting challenges to consumer purchasing power despite real wage growth remaining positive [17]. - The inflation in non-residential services and goods is contributing to a greater strain on residents' purchasing power [17]. Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - The expectation for interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026 is becoming more optimistic, but the limited impact of previous rate cuts on employment raises concerns [21]. - The overall economic condition, excluding AI contributions, suggests that the US economy is nearing a recession, with ongoing pressures on employment demand [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the rapid development of the Guojin Securities Research Institute, which is focused on building a leading macroeconomic research system and is currently hiring macro analysts to enhance its capabilities [1][2]. Group 2 - The company offers a competitive salary system, a fair and transparent assessment system, a continuous fulfillment mechanism, a clear career development path, and a flexible working environment to provide ample growth opportunities for talented individuals [3]. - The job locations are in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, indicating a focus on major financial hubs in China [4]. - Applicants are required to send their resumes and research reports to a specified email address, with clear instructions on how to format the email subject [5]. Group 3 - The qualifications for applicants include a master's degree or higher in relevant fields such as economics, finance, mathematics, physics, or statistics from well-known domestic or international institutions, along with at least two years of research experience covering various areas including domestic and global macroeconomics, asset allocation, investment strategies, fixed income, policy, and real estate [6]. - Candidates should have experience in sell-side or buy-side research, possess strong macro analysis skills, and demonstrate excellent logical thinking, market insight, written communication, and interpersonal skills [6].

Core Viewpoints - The fragility of capital expenditure will manifest through deteriorating liquidity, with potential financial risks arising from interconnected transactions and off-balance-sheet financing. The "political-liquidity-narrative" framework is identified as a key source of external volatility [2] Group 1: AI Investment Bubble - Many believe that there is no bubble in the AI investment sector, citing the healthy revenue and cash flow of tech giants compared to the dot-com bubble era. However, this comparison overlooks fundamental differences in scale and concentration of AI investments today [7] - The value of AI in enhancing productivity across industries will take a long time to materialize, as organizational and process changes lag behind technological advancements. AI currently serves more as a predictive tool rather than a decision-making replacement [9] - Despite the long-term nature of AI's impact on productivity, investment in AI has become a market consensus, driven by various stakeholders including tech companies, financial institutions, and media [10] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Vulnerability - From Q3 2025, capital expenditures among major tech firms investing heavily in AI reached $105.77 billion, a 72.9% year-on-year increase. This surge raises concerns about cash flow sustainability, with the average Capex/CFO ratio rising by 29.7 percentage points to 75.2% [24] - Projections indicate that by Q2 2027, the average Capex/CFO ratio for these firms could reach 95.9%, nearing the peak levels seen during the dot-com bubble [25] - The potential for negative free cash flow could deepen vulnerabilities, particularly for firms like Meta, which may face a cash flow crisis by Q4 2026 [32] Group 3: Financial Risks from High Leverage and Off-Balance-Sheet Financing - In the first 11 months of the year, the total issuance of corporate bonds by hyperscaler companies reached $103.8 billion, significantly exceeding previous years. This surge has led to increased bond spreads and heightened financial risk [39] - Companies like Meta are employing off-balance-sheet financing strategies to manage massive capital needs while maintaining favorable financial statements. This approach poses significant risks, especially if technology bubbles burst or market conditions shift [42][43] Group 4: Political Uncertainty and Liquidity Risks - The sustainability of the AI narrative is closely tied to liquidity conditions, which have been bolstered by recent interest rate cuts. However, political uncertainties, particularly surrounding upcoming elections, could tighten liquidity and impact market sentiment [44][48] - The interplay between political decisions and liquidity will likely lead to increased volatility in the stock market, particularly for AI-related investments [50]