发现问题并利用问题，但难以解决问题 戏剧性逆转的原因显然与特朗普有关，其对加拿大在主权和经济方面的威胁与轻蔑，引发了强烈的聚旗 效应，让技术官僚出身、曾在金融危机期间执掌加拿大央行、在英国脱欧期间执掌英国央行的卡尼获得 大量支持。相比之下，身为右翼民粹主义者的保守党领袖普瓦列夫尔堪称加拿大版特朗普，其标志性口 号是"Canada First"，此次不但输掉了选举，还丢掉了自己的议员席位。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛、赵宏鹤 澳大利亚的情况如出一辙。 执政党工党（中左翼）的民调支持率从2023年开始下滑，到去年底只剩下 30%，反对党联盟党（右翼）的支持率则达到40%；特朗普上任后，工党支持率反弹、联盟党支持率 下滑，选情重新焦灼。 去年底，特朗普率领共和党在大选中横扫摇摆州、完败民主党，大有集三权于一身、碾碎建制派于历史 车轮之势。今年初，特朗普开启第二任期，在就职典礼上宣布黄金时代来临，随后如暴风骤雨般推行激 进的政策主张。 令人意外的是，三个多月过后，"特朗普效应"席卷全球，右翼民粹主义情绪回退、建制派精英派重新 登场，如果这一势头延续，可能给世界局势带来重要影响。 一、全球右翼民粹主义浪潮回退 过去几周有三个国 ...

中美在关税高压下的阶段性降温，美国因内外压力主动求变，中国借机缓解出口压力并巩 固非美谈判成果。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛 中美关税超预期"降级" 5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，美方承诺取消 4 月 8 日对中国商品加征的 91% 报 复性关税，并将 4 月 2 日对中国商品加征的 34% 对等关税中的 24% 暂缓 90 天，对剩余 10% 关 税予以保留。中方也实施了相应的对等取消和暂缓措施，双方同意建立机制开展进一步经贸磋商 。 就当前时点而言，如何理解日内瓦协议背后的战略意义及其对市场的影响？ 中美各自的战略考量 就中美会谈而言，中国并不着急，美国显然是更 急于在关税方面实现突破的一方。 据中国外交部表 态，本次会谈是中方"应美方请求 "在第三国瑞士举行的会谈（而非美国本土），这相较美方此前"希 望中国主动打电话 "的傲慢态度已经大幅逆转。中方立场坚定明确，坚决反对美国滥施关税，但对建立 在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上的对话始终持开放态度。美方之所以态度逆转，主要有以下原因： 第一，中国"以牙还牙"的博弈策略带动了非美国家的观望、拖延，美方急于破局。 在关税谈判伊始， 中国便采取了对等反制的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese companies have gained experience from the first round of trade friction and are now taking a more proactive approach to mitigate the impacts of new tariff policies [1][33]. Group 1: Tariff Mention in Financial Reports - As of May 5, 2025, 5,516 A-share listed companies in China released their Q1 reports, with 41 companies mentioning "tariff" [4]. - In contrast, 276 out of 1,185 U.S. listed companies mentioned "tariff" in their Q1 reports, and 710 companies did so during earnings calls [5][6]. - The higher frequency of tariff mentions in U.S. companies indicates a greater concern regarding tariffs compared to Chinese companies [6]. Group 2: Attitudes Towards Tariffs - Chinese A-share companies show a clear industry differentiation in their attitudes towards tariffs, with 24 companies having a negative stance and 13 a positive one [16]. - Companies with a positive outlook on tariffs are primarily in the power equipment and electronics sectors, while those with a negative outlook are mainly in machinery and automotive sectors [16]. - U.S. companies exhibit a predominantly negative attitude towards tariffs, with 171 companies expressing concerns, while only 10 companies held a positive view [22]. Group 3: Strategies to Mitigate Tariff Impacts - Chinese companies are actively improving their global supply chain systems to alleviate tariff risks, with companies like CIMC Vehicles focusing on enhancing local procurement and establishing backup supply mechanisms in ASEAN countries [21]. - Some Chinese companies have diversified their production bases overseas, such as Tianzhen Co., which has invested in production facilities in Vietnam, Thailand, and the U.S. [19]. - U.S. companies are also adapting by raising prices to pass on tariff costs to consumers, as seen with companies like Newell Brands and Howmet Aerospace [26]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Financial Performance - The trade tensions have led to significant concerns among U.S. companies, with many citing the uncertainty of tariffs affecting their business planning and operational costs [32]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a maximum decline of 12.1% compared to a 7.6% decline in the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a more severe market reaction in the U.S. [34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook on holiday consumption, primarily driven by an increase in the number of travelers, despite lower per capita spending [2][3] - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel reached 314 million person-times, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending amounting to 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [3] - The increase in travel numbers coupled with lower per capita spending suggests that while consumer willingness is high, overall spending capacity remains constrained [3] Group 2 - Container throughput in April maintained resilience, indicating that exports are not expected to decline sharply [5][6] - As of April 27, the average weekly container throughput in China increased by 7.3% year-on-year, while the average cargo throughput at ports rose by 5.6% [6] - Vietnam's exports saw a significant year-on-year increase of 21%, attributed to the resurgence of re-export trade from China due to differentiated tariffs with the U.S. [6] Group 3 - There is increasing downward pressure on prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions leading to significant declines in commodity prices [8][9] - It is anticipated that the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will see year-on-year declines of approximately -2.7% and -0.1%, respectively, in April [9] - The domestic production material price index fell from 101.7 at the end of March to 99.4 at the end of April, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.2% [10] Group 4 - The GDP growth rate for April is projected to be around 4.9% [12][14] - The PMI production index dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, indicating a cooling in production activities compared to March [13] - Downstream production activities, such as textile machinery and automotive tire manufacturing, showed a decline in operating rates compared to the end of March [13] Group 5 - Government bond issuance has slowed down, but policy determination remains strong [15][16] - In April, the net financing scale of government bonds was 793.8 billion yuan, down from 1,475.6 billion yuan previously [16] - The cumulative issuance progress of various types of government bonds indicates that if economic pressures increase, the issuance speed of special and national bonds may accelerate [17]

4月中国出口（以美元计价）同比增长8.1%，表现出明显的"抢转口"特征。 抢转口、抢出海下，出口压力在6月之后。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 随着在途商品豁免期结束，在高额关税下，中国对美直接贸易快速下滑。 4月对美出口同比增速从9.1%快速下滑至-21%，拖累中国出口增速3个百分 点。预计5月中国对美出口将进一步回落。 4月中国对非美出口增速显著上行。 4月中国对东盟出口增长20.8%，前值11.6%，拉动中国出口增速3.6个百分点。4月中国对越南出口增长23%，越 南对美国出口增长34%，越南对中国的进口额和对美国的出口额均创下2020年以来的新高，中国借道越南转口可能明显上升。 按照美国豁免清单9903.01.25，在美东时间4月9日凌晨12时之前装船运输的商品可以申请10%的附加关税，而不用面临对等关税，在这样的情况下， 部分对美直接出口商品在4月初加速出货。 除越南外，4月中国对 非洲、德国、印度、拉丁美洲、中国台湾省 等地区的出口增速均维持两位数以上高增。对德国、荷兰、澳大利亚出口增速比3月上 升了8.8、8、10.3个百分点。 4月已公布重点商品中，出口增速最高的是中间品和资本品， 分别为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's debt management strategies, highlighting the risks associated with potential U.S. debt defaults and the impact on market confidence [1][17]. Group 1: Economic Strategies and Implications - Trump's focus has been on "debt management" since taking office, aiming to reduce fiscal deficits while navigating complex reforms in healthcare, social security, and military spending [3]. - A weak dollar, weak U.S. stock market, and a weak economy can serve political purposes, benefiting certain voter demographics while allowing for necessary economic adjustments [5][6]. - Short-term economic downturns and stock market corrections are viewed as necessary for fiscal reform and debt reduction, with the potential for recovery before the midterm elections [9]. Group 2: U.S. Debt Situation - As of April 25, the total U.S. debt stood at $36.2 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $881 billion in the 2024 fiscal year, accounting for 13% of total government spending [12][14]. - High interest rates have suppressed financing demand and contributed to liquidity issues in the banking sector, exemplified by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank [10]. - Trump's administration faces significant challenges in managing debt levels and ensuring fiscal sustainability, with spending cuts progressing slower than planned [14]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - The market reacted negatively to Trump's tariff announcements, with the S&P 500 index dropping 10% and 10-year Treasury yields rising significantly [23]. - Concerns about the credibility of U.S. debt have emerged, particularly in light of Trump's threats to replace the Federal Reserve Chair, which could undermine the independence of the central bank [20][21]. - The potential for a "credit crisis" looms if market confidence in U.S. debt continues to erode, as the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as "risk-free" is challenged [19]. Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics of U.S. Debt - Recent rumors about a $6 trillion debt maturity in June were clarified, indicating that most of this debt is short-term and will be rolled over, thus not posing an immediate threat [24][26]. - The demand for U.S. debt remains relatively stable, with domestic institutions absorbing much of the issuance despite some reductions in holdings by traditional foreign investors [26][28]. - Alternatives to U.S. debt, such as gold and other high-rated government bonds, are limited in scale and yield, maintaining investor reliance on U.S. Treasuries in the short term [30][28].

美国全行业都几乎处于关税到来前的"活动激增"状态，这种状态的持续性相对脆弱， 也从某种程度上掩盖了周期性走弱所带来的增长放缓。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 "抢消费"、"抢进口"、"抢库存"、"抢投资"，是关税乌云下美国经济活动前置的真实写照。 从一季度美国 GDP 来看，私人部门最终购买依然处于相对稳健的水平，但这个相对正常的增速背后其 实是明显前置的商品需求，其中以耐用品消费最为显著。 就像中国贸易部门的"抢出口"必然消退一样，美国私人部门的"抢消费"也难以维持高速增长，尤其是 其消费能力也正在边际走弱。 消费能力来自于收入，4月非农薪资增速相对偏弱，联储最看重的 ECI 收入增速也保持着回落趋势， 跳槽者的薪资增速已经回落到了 2019 年的水平。 过去几年支撑美国居民消费韧性的财富效应也在 2024 年第四季度开始消退，成为过去一年美国居民 部门总财富增长最缓慢的一个季度，且在 2025 年第一季度还面临进一步下降。 另外，过往的低利率顺风逐渐消失，房贷利率的压力正缓慢上升，将给居民部门的财富积累带来更大的 压力。 美国企业 也展现出"抢进口"的姿态：库存激增，固定投资（非住宅中的设备投资）大举前 ...

会议揭开了政策稳增长 的序幕，更多存量工具正在路上 。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会， 央行、金融监管总局、证监会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。其中，央行推出了三类 10 项具体政策。 4月25日中央政治局会议定调"适时降准降息"后，市场对"降准"、"创设新的结构性货币政策工 具"、"设立新型政策性金融工具"、"各类再贷款工具增量扩容"已经有所预期，但此次"全面降息"的时 点略超市场预期。 略超预期的降息涉及三方面。 1、核心政策利率下调 10BP ， 7 天 OMO 利率从 1.5% 下调至 1.4% ，并带动 LPR 利率同步下行 10BP 左右。 2、各项结构性政策工具利率下调 25BP ，比如各类专项结构性政策利率、支农支小再贷款利率，从 1.75% 降到 1.5% ，抵押补充贷款（ PSL ）利率从 2.25% 降至 2% 。 3、个人住房公积金贷款利率下调 25BP ， 5 年期以上首套房利率由 2.85% 降至 2.6% ，其他期限 的利率同步调整。 自去年中央经济工作会议表述要"适时降准降息" 后，市场对降息的预期一直存 ...

文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 当前的关税和2018年在多个维度上不存在可比性：一是全面的关税带来了明显的金融通缩（压低盈利 预期、侵蚀估值水平、引发去杠杆化以及信贷条件紧缩），二是陡增的关税水平很难由任何一方独自承 担（出口商、进口商、消费者）。 在 美国经济的供需两端都面临"涨价约束"的情况下，美国的关税通胀可能被高估。 首先是需求端，消费者信心预期已经跌破数年来的低点。 而在消费者信心指数出现向下拐点之前， 美国耐用品的前置消费就已发生，说明当时的消费数据已经 包含了部分关税预期。 居民部门的提前囤货反映出他们对于潜在关税的敏感，这意味着消费者可能不会为高关税买单，而是会 选择直接减少消费。 在消费信心疲软且车贷利率高企的背景下，3月美国汽车消费录得了4年来的新高，反映出消费者对于 即将征收汽车关税的规避，未来需求将不可避免地快速回落。 关税是需求紧缩政策：既可以看作是财政紧缩（美国私人部门承担关税），也可以看 作是货币紧缩（非美私人部门承担关税）。 当前的消费放缓不仅包括商品消费的前置和 消费信心的下降，还包括服务消费的自然下行。 比如 美国 本土出行旅游等非必要消费的下降， 酒店入住率持续下行且同比 ...

美股短期反弹以情绪为主，在关税冲击盈利、高估值消化压力及政策滞后效应下，仍具备 调整可能。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人陈瀚学 一、近期美股超跌反弹 前期已经陷入"技术性熊市"的美股由于"对等关税"暂缓而出现连续反弹：4.8-5.2，道琼斯、纳斯达 克、标普500分别上涨8.83%、15.22%、12.33%。 2月中下旬以来的美股调整，大致可分成两波： 第一波（2.19-3.13） 主要交易中国Deepseek崛起带来的美国科技"例外论"消退。Deepseek-V3 和-r1的问世，一方面打破了对美国科技算法寡头垄断的估值溢价。另一方面，由于以极低的成本取得 了相近的效果，也使得市场对于算力芯片的长期需求产生了怀疑。同时，英伟达的主要客户们也正在研 制各自的定制算力芯片以减少对英伟达的依赖。这一时期，美股科技板块领跌。 第二波（4.2-4.8） 主要交易的是特朗普超预期的对等关税政策，"地图炮"式的加征关税让市场产生 了通胀预期飙升而实际消费下降的衰退担忧。全球风险资产同时下跌，处在风暴中心的美股甚至跌入 了"技术性熊市"区间。衰退叙事令各板块普跌，能源板块跌幅最甚，必选消费、公用事业等防御性板 块相对抗跌。 ...