Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the balance between short-term and long-term economic goals, with a focus on achieving a 5% economic growth target while promoting reforms and technological innovation to enhance economic efficiency and potential growth space [2][3]. Consumption - The "trade-in" policy has seen a significant increase in usage, with daily purchase volumes for various products rising substantially from early 2024 to late May, including a 61.2% increase in automobiles and a 95.7% increase in home appliances [4][8]. - There is currently 138 billion yuan in national subsidy funds for trade-ins that have not yet been allocated, with plans for further disbursement in July and October [4][8]. - The government is also focusing on preventing fraud in subsidy claims, with measures to ensure compliance and proper implementation of the trade-in policy [7]. Consumer Policy - Recent consumer policies are shifting towards establishing long-term mechanisms rather than short-term stimulus, with an emphasis on improving the consumption environment and infrastructure [9][10]. - Enhancing the income distribution mechanism to increase earnings for low-income groups is crucial for boosting consumption [11]. Real Estate - The real estate market is currently weak, with a 4.6% year-on-year decline in residential sales area in May, but there is a push for structural reforms to improve the quality of housing supply [14][15]. - The government aims to promote the construction of high-quality housing and to revitalize existing land and projects to address inventory issues [14][15]. Reform - Recent reforms focus on improving public services and linking them to population metrics, with a clear intention to accelerate the implementation of previously outlined reform measures [16][18]. Financial Support - There is an increasing emphasis on supporting technology and manufacturing sectors, with new financial tools expected to be introduced to facilitate investment in these areas [19][20]. - The government is also promoting the development of technology innovation bonds to support the financing of tech and manufacturing projects [21][22].

文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 5月CPI同比下降0.1%，最大的拖累项是交通和通信，降幅达到4.3%，是CPI大类中唯一的负增长项 目。具体来看，在交通通信项中，5月CPI交通工具分项的同比下降3.4%，主要原因是汽车降价。根据 乘联会数据，5月份乘用车销量同比增长13%，新能源车销量同比增长28%，但5月社零中的汽车消费 金额的增速仅为1.1%，原因也是降价。5月整车厂启动了新一轮价格下调。乘联会数据显示，5月中旬 汽车市场折扣率为24.8%，相比4月份的23.7%进一步扩大，达到2023年以来的最高折扣水平。 走出内卷，仍需依靠创新突破，依靠改革打破市场分割和地方保护，依靠外交努力打开更 大的海外市场。 新能源车降价并非新鲜事。一方面，电池上游原材料碳酸锂价格从2022年11月的56万元/吨的高点跌 到了目前6万元/吨，期间新能源车价格持续下调。另一方面，面对技术的快速迭代进步，经销商必须 降价才能加速清理相对落后的车型库存，最近备受争议的"0公里二手车"也与此有关。 汽车降价对CPI产生了持续的拖累，对CPI的影响约0.2至0.3个百分点。但这包含了一部分"技术性通 缩"的因素，新能源车的降价如同十 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a rapid rebound in shipping volumes between China and the US in early June, attributed to the easing of tariffs on May 12, leading to a more than 25% increase in container ship departures compared to the last week of May, with an average of 59.1 departures [3] - South Korea's exports showed a significant recovery in early June, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, a notable improvement from the -23.8% recorded in May, driven by a low base last year and better performance in major regions [5][6] - The real estate market remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 5.9% in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities during the first half of June, indicating limited recovery [9] Group 2 - The automotive market experienced a year-on-year increase in sales, with retail sales of passenger cars reaching 343,000 units in early June, a 19% increase compared to the same period last year, while wholesale figures also showed a 10% increase [12][13] - New energy vehicles performed exceptionally well, with retail sales reaching 202,000 units in early June, marking a 40% year-on-year growth and a market penetration rate of 58.8% [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolution of the relationship between Trump and Musk, highlighting their initial close alliance and subsequent public fallout due to ideological differences and personal conflicts [4][5][7] - Musk's role in the Trump administration was initially seen as pivotal, addressing key economic issues like inflation and national debt, but conflicts over tariffs and fiscal policies led to a gradual deterioration of their relationship [3][6][8] - The article emphasizes that the breakdown of their partnership was not sudden but rather a result of systemic erosion of trust and influence, driven by policy decisions that conflicted with Musk's business philosophy [7][8] Group 2 - The "DOGE" initiative, which aimed for significant budget cuts, achieved approximately $175 billion in spending reductions during Musk's tenure, representing 8.75% of the $2 trillion target [11] - Despite these achievements, the article notes that the entrenched structural resistance within the U.S. government limits the effectiveness of top-down reforms like those attempted by Musk [11][14] - The article suggests that the future of "DOGE" may transition into a more systematic and institutionalized phase under Trump's leadership, focusing on fiscal sustainability and efficiency improvements [15][16] Group 3 - The article critiques the systemic inefficiencies of the U.S. government, attributing them to a culture of over-regulation that fosters a compliance-driven mentality among civil servants, which ultimately hampers effective governance [12][14] - Examples of inefficiencies, such as the prolonged delays in major projects like the California high-speed rail and the new Air Force One, illustrate the challenges faced in government operations [13] - The article posits that for "DOGE" to succeed, it must address these deep-rooted structural issues rather than merely implementing superficial cost-cutting measures [14] Group 4 - The article discusses the misjudgment of Wall Street regarding Trump's economic policies, particularly the "TACO" trade, which underestimated his commitment to fiscal tightening and debt sustainability [17][18] - It highlights the potential for Trump's future policies to diverge from market expectations, particularly if he pursues aggressive spending cuts alongside tax reductions, which could lead to economic recession [18] - The overarching narrative suggests that Trump's fiscal strategies are aimed at ensuring long-term financial health and maintaining the global status of the U.S. dollar, despite short-term economic pain [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a systematic and gradual weakening rather than a clear segmentation of inflation followed by stagnation, with increasing risks of non-farm payroll declines [1][8][37] - Recent economic data changes in the U.S. are not keeping pace with asset price fluctuations and macro narratives, indicating a divergence between hard and soft data [3][5] - The negative impacts of various non-tariff policies are becoming increasingly evident, contributing to the suppression of U.S. economic growth [5][8] Group 2 - The rate and potential magnitude of inflation are declining, with the U.S. CPI readings falling short of expectations for four consecutive months [9][11] - There is no significant inflation in tariff-sensitive sectors, and the demand-side weakness is likely to impose stronger price constraints [11][13] - Concerns about stagnation are rising as labor market data shows signs of weakening, despite stable non-farm employment figures [16][21] Group 3 - Service consumption is expected to be the first to reflect the weakening of the U.S. economy, with signs of declining consumer willingness [27][28] - The structure of disposable income growth is unhealthy, with a significant portion coming from government welfare rather than labor income [29][33] - The overall consumption willingness is decreasing, which will further suppress service consumption levels [37]

《意见》进一步落实了二十届三中全会在城镇化和民生领域的改革部署 。核心思想是通过结构性改 革，推动基本公共服务与户籍脱钩、与人口挂钩，促进政府增加对基本公共服务的投入，减轻消费潜力 最大的中低收入群体，尤其是灵活就业人员、农民工、新就业形态人员在养老、教育、医疗、住房等领 域的负担，提升其消费能力和意愿。 外部环境相对缓和之后，政策转向更加关注长期目标和高质量发展，改革有望再提速。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 近期改革信号释放加快，反映出外部环境相对缓和后，政策转向更加关注长期目标和高质量发展，改革 进程有望再提速。 6月9日中办、国办印发《关于进一步保障和改善民生 着力解决群众急难愁盼的意见》（下文简 称"《意见》）。 值得注意的是， 《意见》的成文时间为3月2日，但公布时间为6月9日 ，可能是因 为4-5月的关税密集冲击造成外部不确定性上升，延缓了落实深化改革的政策节奏。 除《意见》外，近期在消费政策方面，更强调完善促消费的长效机制。 6月8日经济日报《金观平：持 续完善促消费长效机制》中提到，"要用好考核'指挥棒'，建立完善科学合理的考核指标体系，引导地 方政府和领导干部树立以促消费为导向的政绩观 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the effects of previous policies are gradually diminishing, leading to a noticeable decline in real estate sales in China [2] - In the first week of June, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 20.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%, with significant declines in first- and second-tier cities [2] - The average daily sales area of second-hand houses in 11 sample cities was 19.0 million square meters, down from 25.6 million square meters, although the transaction share of second-hand houses has rebounded [2] Group 2 - Domestic price pressures continue, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, primarily influenced by falling energy prices [3][4] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month in May, with gasoline prices decreasing by 3.8% [3] - Agricultural product prices remained stable with a slight decline, with month-on-month decreases ranging from 0.3% to 1.0% [5] Group 3 - In May, automobile retail sales increased by 13% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month, while wholesale sales rose by 14% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month, indicating resilience in the automotive market [9] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 30% and a month-on-month growth of 14%, with a market penetration rate of 53.5% [10] - Despite maintaining sales resilience, automobile prices showed weakness, with an overall market discount rate of approximately 24.8% in May, up from 23.7% in April [10] Group 4 - The funding chain for construction projects has shown improvement, with the funding availability rate for sample construction sites reaching 59.13% as of June 3, marking a week-on-week increase of 0.26 percentage points [11][14] - Non-residential construction projects saw an increase of 0.53 percentage points, while residential construction projects experienced a decrease of 0.95 percentage points [14] - The improvement in funding availability aligns with some upstream production data, such as a cement clinker capacity utilization rate of 61.0% and an increase in the operating rate of asphalt plants to 31.3% [14]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the easing of tariffs between China and the U.S., the average tariff rate on Chinese goods remains high at around 42%, with significant portions of goods facing rates as high as 57% [2][3] Tariff Analysis - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports from China is approximately 42%, with 40% of goods facing a rate of about 39.5% and 32% facing around 57% [2] - The breakdown of tariffs includes: - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff: 36,011,281 (7.78%) - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff + 301 List (1-3): 146,373,663 (31.64%) - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff + 301 List (4): 187,165,284 (40.46%) - Other categories account for 123,359,456 (26.66%) [3] Trade Dynamics - Following the tariff easing in May, there has been a recovery in direct trade between China and the U.S., with indices for the CCFI West and East routes increasing by 21% and 23% respectively [4] - However, the number of container ships from China to the U.S. showed weak performance in late May, indicating a time lag in the recovery process [4] Import Trends - The U.S. has been "rushing imports" since November last year, with approximately $220 billion worth of goods imported from November 2024 to March 2025, equivalent to one month’s import volume prior to this period [7] - As inventory levels rise and shipping costs increase, U.S. import demand has started to decline, with the growth rate of goods imports dropping from 31.1% in March to 2.2% in April [7] Export Orders - The PMI export order index for China in May and the number of container ships heading to the U.S. in early June suggest that the momentum for "rushing exports 2.0" may be starting to wane [7]

Core Viewpoint - The status of US Treasury bonds as a "pricing anchor" is declining, challenging the effectiveness of traditional investment strategies, leading to a global rebalancing towards non-US and alternative assets [1][18]. Group 1: Concerns Over US Treasury Bonds - The long-term issues with US Treasury bonds stem from concerns about both demand and supply, influenced by changes in dollar credit and expectations of potential bond issuance due to fiscal deficits [3][4]. - The contribution of tariff revenues to US fiscal income is minimal, with tariffs projected to account for only 1.6% of total fiscal revenue in 2024, while net interest expenses have risen significantly [6][9]. - The perception of US Treasury bonds as a safe haven is eroding due to geopolitical tensions and the use of dollar and Treasury bonds as negotiation tools in trade discussions [9][10]. Group 2: Impact of Domestic Policies - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House raises concerns about increased fiscal deficits, potentially adding $3 trillion over ten years, which could exacerbate the mismatch between supply and demand for Treasury bonds [13][18]. - The Trump administration's spending cuts have fallen short of targets, with only $175 billion cut against a goal of $2 trillion, indicating a lack of commitment to fiscal discipline [15][18]. Group 3: Erosion of Dollar Credibility - The current US administration's departure from traditional values and geopolitical alliances undermines the foundational credibility of the dollar, which relies on trust in US technological and military superiority [16][17]. - Recent challenges to US technological and military dominance could significantly impact the dollar's strength and the sustainability of its fiscal and current account deficits [17][18]. Group 4: Shifts in Asset Allocation - The decline in the status of US Treasury bonds as a pricing anchor has led to a reevaluation of traditional asset allocation strategies, with a notable shift from the typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio to alternatives like gold and cryptocurrencies [20][24]. - Global funds are increasingly diversifying into non-US assets, with central banks raising their gold reserves significantly, indicating a trend towards alternative asset classes [24][26]. - The performance of alternative assets has outpaced traditional stock-bond combinations, with gold and Bitcoin showing substantial gains in 2025 [26][24].

老二手房类似"红利股"，次新房类似"高估值价值股"， 老现房类似"伪成长股"，压力最 大，新好房类似"成长股"，是推动新房价格回升的主要力量。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 目前百城住宅租金价格环比跌幅有所收窄，5月上海、广州住宅租金环比回升，北京、深圳环比回落； 30个二线城市中，住宅租金环比上涨、持平和下跌的城市分别为16个、1个和13个；成都、天津、武 汉、乌鲁木齐的租金比较坚挺。 当前中国人均住房面积已超过40平方米，与发达国家相当，房地产的功能不再仅仅是满足居民基本居 住需求，还带有改善性目的，从"有房住"向"住得好"转变，房子的估值逻辑也在发生变化。 一、大多数房产 终将成为"价值股" 随着市场的逐步成熟与稳定，大部分房产会逐渐演变为"价值股"，稳定、低估值且有一定的租金回报 率。 少数优质的房产，凭借其独特的品质，可能暂时成为"成长股"，但这类房产终究是少数。 租售比是房产的PE，租金是房产的EPS，租售比（租金回报率）决定了房产作为投资品的性价比。 目 前 百 城 租 金 回 报 率 在 2.3%-2.4% ， 从 投 资 角 度 看 ， 租 金 回 报 率 的 合 理 区 间 应 该 在 ...