经济观察报
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不取巧、不片面,万字读透诺奖经济学奖思想:经济增长根治于一个文明的学习能力
经济观察报· 2025-10-14 10:09
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the Nobel Prize awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to the understanding of "innovation-driven economic growth," emphasizing the interplay between knowledge, innovation, and the process of creative destruction in sustaining economic growth [6][42]. Group 1: Knowledge and Innovation - Mokyr's research highlights that knowledge is the catalyst for modern economic growth, with technological progress driven by the accumulation and dissemination of knowledge rather than mere economic incentives [14][15]. - The integration of theoretical and practical knowledge in modern society is crucial for initiating industrial revolutions and sustaining growth [15][16]. - The Enlightenment period significantly influenced the cultural attitude towards knowledge, enhancing its accessibility and fostering a culture of scientific inquiry [17][19]. Group 2: Creative Destruction - Aghion and Howitt's theory of "creative destruction" posits that economic growth is driven by the replacement of old technologies with new ones through research and development (R&D) investments [30][31]. - Their model addresses the shortcomings of the Solow model by incorporating the technology update process, emphasizing the dual effects of technological change on economic growth and the welfare of society [32]. - The balance between competition and innovation is complex, with competition acting as a double-edged sword that can either stimulate or hinder innovation depending on the market context [35][36]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The article suggests that effective industrial policies should focus on creating a competitive environment that encourages innovation across all firms, rather than solely rewarding the most successful ones [37]. - In the context of carbon neutrality, the discussion emphasizes the need for a holistic approach to energy transition that considers long-term efficiency and the potential pitfalls of gradual reforms [39][40].
中国eSIM手机解禁 库克在抖音直播带货iPhone Air
经济观察报· 2025-10-14 08:36
此前,三大运营商均已将eSIM业务应用于智能手表、车载设备、平板电脑等多终端上,此次手机 端eSIM业务的引入,将直接推动移动通信服务从传统的实体SIM卡模式向"轻量化、多模态"的 eSIM模式演进,为用户带去"免插卡激活、多设备协同、全球无缝漫游"的体验。 中国联通早自2015年便启动了eSIM技术应用与创新的研发,其eSIM业务服务用户规模突破数百 万,如今eSIM手机业务的获批,也标志着其eSIM全场景业务实现闭环。 中国移动紧随其后,在公布eSIM手机业务获批的同时,还附上了业务办理网点的预约页面截图, 以供用户参考。 中国电信虽然直到13日深夜才公布消息,但它提到,其eSIM手机业务于当日获批,随即便在国内 31个省市正式上市销售。 伴随中国大陆市场的运营商可提供eSIM手机服务,作为苹果 迄今为止最轻薄的iPhone新品,仅支持eSIM的iPhone Air迎 来了它在中国市场发售的曙光。 作者: 钱玉娟 封图:图虫创意 10月13日晚,中国联通率先通过官方公众号宣布,于近期正式获得开展eSIM手机运营服务商用试 验的批复,这一信息的意义正如其标题所示,"eSIM手机,来了!" 伴随中国大陆市场的 ...
【金融观察】又见“TACO”交易 十月市场风向
经济观察报· 2025-10-14 03:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in global markets, emphasizing the importance of identifying trends amidst noise and the potential for investment opportunities in the context of geopolitical tensions and economic data resilience [2][22]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of new tariffs by the Trump administration, global markets experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.71% and the tech sector facing severe losses, particularly in semiconductor stocks [3][4]. - The fear of a renewed trade war has led to a "risk-off" sentiment among investors, with a notable spike in the VIX index, indicating increased market volatility [3][4]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged, with New York futures reaching $4060 per ounce, reflecting a 50% increase over the past year, driven by factors such as fiscal deficits, currency devaluation, and geopolitical tensions [5][10]. - The article highlights the divergence in the roles of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, with gold serving as a "credit hedge" while Treasuries are viewed as a "policy bet" [10]. Investment Trends - The article notes a significant increase in new investor accounts in China, with 2.937 million new accounts opened in September 2025, indicating growing interest in domestic markets [11]. - China's foreign financial assets have surpassed $11 trillion, reflecting a robust inflow of foreign investment, particularly in equities [12]. Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI showed slight improvement, indicating resilience in the economy, although it remains below the expansion threshold [12][16]. - The article discusses the potential for policy-driven growth in key sectors, particularly in technology and resources, as the government focuses on high-quality development [13][18]. Geopolitical and Economic Risks - The ongoing trade tensions and potential for further tariffs pose risks to global supply chains, particularly in technology sectors like semiconductors and AI [17]. - The article suggests that the interplay of global liquidity and domestic policy signals will shape investment opportunities, with a focus on resource and technology chains [18][19].
安世半导体“失控”,闻泰科技“保卫战”如何打?
经济观察报· 2025-10-14 03:24
Core Viewpoint - Wenta Technology firmly opposes the Dutch government's intervention in its subsidiary Nexperia's operations, asserting that the actions are politically motivated and discriminatory against Chinese enterprises [3][5][8]. Group 1: Government Intervention - On September 30, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs issued an order freezing Nexperia's global operations, preventing any adjustments to assets, intellectual property, or personnel for one year [2][5]. - The Dutch government justified its actions on grounds of "national security," which Wenta Technology claims is based on geopolitical bias rather than factual risk assessment [3][8]. - The company has initiated legal and diplomatic measures to demand the immediate withdrawal of the Dutch government's erroneous directive and to stop systemic discrimination against Chinese enterprises [3][9]. Group 2: Internal Management Issues - Following the government's order, three foreign executives at Nexperia filed an urgent request for an investigation and temporary measures with the Amsterdam Enterprise Chamber [5][6]. - The Enterprise Chamber quickly responded by suspending Wenta's founder Zhang Xuezheng from his board position and appointing an independent foreign director with decisive voting rights [6][7]. - Wenta Technology characterized the actions of the foreign executives as a malicious extension of external pressure, aimed at altering the company's governance structure [3][7]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of Nexperia - Nexperia, with over 60 years of history, is a leader in various semiconductor segments, particularly in automotive applications, making it a crucial asset for Wenta Technology [7][8]. - Wenta Technology acquired Nexperia for over 33 billion RMB in a landmark deal, transforming from a mobile ODM manufacturer to an IDM company with core semiconductor assets [7][8]. - The recent events threaten Wenta's strategic pivot towards semiconductor business, which is essential for its future growth [12][15]. Group 4: Financial Implications - Wenta Technology's financial reports indicate that its semiconductor business, while contributing less to total revenue, has a significantly higher gross margin compared to its former ODM business [14][15]. - The company has over 8 billion RMB in convertible bonds maturing in less than two years, raising concerns about its ability to repay if Nexperia's profits cannot be consolidated [16]. - Wenta's management has outlined a strategy to ensure business stability, emphasizing the importance of maintaining operations in China, where a significant portion of Nexperia's production capacity is located [16][17]. Group 5: Leadership Transition - Wenta Technology is undergoing a leadership transition, with a new chairperson, born in the 1990s, taking charge just months before the current crisis [17][18]. - The timing of the "Nexperia incident" poses a significant challenge for the new leadership as the company navigates its strategic transformation [20].
亚洲的超级富豪们都在“买买买”哪些资产?
经济观察报· 2025-10-14 03:18
Core Insights - The article discusses the investment strategies and preferences of ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) investors in Asia, highlighting their focus on long-term asset appreciation and global diversification [2][5][6]. Investment Philosophy - UHNW investors prioritize long-term asset growth over short-term market fluctuations, often looking at investment horizons of 20 to 30 years [5][6]. - The investment strategy emphasizes capturing clear long-term trends, such as those in gold and AI sectors [7]. - Diversification is key to risk management, involving both asset class diversification and geographical diversification to mitigate risks [8]. Hedge Fund Preferences - UHNW investors prefer hedge funds with strong management capabilities and robust risk control, often favoring multi-strategy hedge funds for their stability and lower correlation with market fluctuations [9][10]. - The expected annual return for these hedge funds is between 10% to 15%, with a focus on minimizing drawdowns [10]. Stock Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations for UHNW investors lean towards AI-related sectors, particularly companies involved in foundational technologies like chips and computing power, such as Nvidia and TSMC [12]. - Despite concerns about high valuations, companies like Nvidia are viewed as having strong earnings growth and demand, distinguishing them from past market bubbles [13]. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - UHNW investors show a strong interest in Singapore REITs due to their maturity and stability, with annual yields ranging from 4% to 8% [17]. - The strategic management of foreign investment taxes in Singapore enhances the attractiveness of its real estate market [17]. Gold as a Safe-Haven Asset - Gold is recommended as a strong investment, with a rationale based on central banks increasing their gold reserves and its appeal as an inflation hedge [18][19]. - The current geopolitical uncertainties further enhance gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset [19]. Currency Outlook - The outlook for the US dollar is negative, with expectations of further declines due to a potential interest rate cut cycle [20]. - Other currencies like the euro and yen are monitored closely, especially for UHNW investors considering leveraged investments [20].
这家民营企业凭什么能频频发射火箭?
经济观察报· 2025-10-13 15:25
作为商业航天领域的新势力,东方空间的实践揭示了民营航天 企业如何在巨头林立的领域中,寻找生存与发展的缝隙。 作者: 王惠 封图: 云上天镜 "作为全球运力最大的固体运载火箭,遥二的成功发射不仅让东方空间实现了从技术验证迈向商业 运营的关键一步,也意味着引力一号系列从商业性质上开始承担组网任务,有助于在一定程度上缓 解中国中长期商业航天市场'星多箭少'的供给压力。"10月11日,东方空间(山东)科技有限公司 (下称"东方空间")联合创始人、副总裁彭昊旻在接受经济观察报专访时表示。 如果说运力决定了火箭能将多少卫星送上太空,那么价格则决定了有多少卫星能负担得起这张"太 空船票"。彭昊旻介绍,遥一已将单位公斤发射成本从行业传统的10万元至15万元降至4万元以 内。而随着生产模式的优化,遥三及后续型号的成本预计还将进一步降低10%至15%。 作为商业航天领域的新势力,东方空间的实践揭示了民营航天企业如何在巨头林立的领域中,寻找 生存与发展的缝隙。东方空间采取了务实的技术路径,确立了"固液并存、循序渐进"的研制思路。 通过固体火箭快速打开市场,同时布局液体火箭研发以实现长远发展。 埃隆·马斯克旗下的SpaceX(美国太 ...
云迹科技IPO在即:阿里、腾讯联手下注,服务机器人长出“AI大脑”
经济观察报· 2025-10-13 12:40
Core Viewpoint - Cloudwalk Technology (2670.HK) has officially launched its IPO process on October 8, 2023, with plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 16, 2023, marking it as the fourth "specialized technology company" to utilize Chapter 18C for listing, aimed at unprofitable companies with core technological capabilities [3][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 2014, Cloudwalk Technology focuses on developing a complete intelligent service system, not just hardware. Its self-developed HDOS (Hospitality Digital Operation System) acts as a "digital butler," enabling service robots to work smarter in complex environments like hotels and hospitals [2][10]. - The company has developed the UP series of robots, which feature a modular design allowing for quick task component changes, enhancing operational flexibility and reducing idle time [8][10]. Market Position and Financials - As of October 9, 2023, Cloudwalk Technology's IPO has raised HKD 32.98 million, with a subscription rate of 1,336 times for the public offering. The company has previously completed eight rounds of financing, attracting notable investors such as Alibaba and Tencent [4]. - The company has deployed its service robots in over 34,000 hotels and 150 hospitals globally, holding a 6.3% market share in China's service robot market, with a 13.9% share in the hotel sector [13]. Business Model and Growth - Cloudwalk Technology is transitioning from hardware sales to a "Robot as a Service" (RaaS) model, with revenue growth from CNY 161 million in 2022 to CNY 249 million in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2% [13][15]. - The company has seen a shift in product structure, with the "Ruan" series being phased out and the "Gegge" series showing stronger market adaptability, achieving a 68.3% year-on-year sales increase in 2024 [14]. Research and Development - The company plans to use 60% of the funds raised from the IPO to enhance R&D capabilities, including the development of multimodal models and improvements to robot algorithms [17]. - Cloudwalk Technology has over 550 authorized patents and more than 600 pending, covering key areas such as environmental perception and motion control [11]. International Expansion - In response to market saturation in mainland China, Cloudwalk Technology is focusing on international expansion, establishing a subsidiary in Hong Kong and collaborating with local hotel groups to deploy its robots [18].
诺贝尔经济学奖获得者:发财不一定需要知识,但经济增长需要
经济观察报· 2025-10-13 12:40
Group 1 - The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding how technological change drives sustained economic growth [5] - Mokyr's work focuses on the historical origins and evolution of modern economic growth through systematic research of economic history [5][4] - Aghion and Howitt developed the "creative destruction" mechanism, explaining how technological innovation drives long-term growth in dynamic competition [5][4] Group 2 - Mokyr's research emphasizes the role of knowledge in economic growth, arguing that modern growth is significantly more dependent on knowledge compared to pre-modern economies [10][11] - The Enlightenment period is identified as a key factor in the rise of knowledge's importance in economic growth, reshaping knowledge systems and promoting scientific inquiry [10][11] - Mokyr's "Enlightenment Index" shows that regions like England and the Netherlands had higher knowledge dissemination compared to France, correlating with their economic development [12] Group 3 - Aghion, a prominent figure in innovation economics, integrates the concept of "creative destruction" into modern economic theory, highlighting both the benefits and potential downsides of innovation [15][16] - Aghion and Howitt's theory addresses the randomness of technological research and its interaction with economic cycles, providing insights into the conflicts arising from technological transitions [17] - Aghion has engaged with the Chinese academic community since the 1990s, contributing to discussions on economic reform and receiving accolades such as the Sun Yefang Economic Science Award [18]
一边是《沉默的荣耀》,一边是以武谋“独”的喧嚣
经济观察报· 2025-10-13 12:40
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical wounds between Taiwan and mainland China, emphasizing that the unresolved issues will persist as long as Taiwan remains unreturned to the mainland. It highlights the military capabilities of mainland China to address the Taiwan issue but questions why these capabilities have not been utilized yet [2][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - The television series "Silent Glory" portrays the sacrifices of historical figures like General Wu Shi, whose remains were returned to mainland China, symbolizing the deep historical scars from events like the failed attack on Kinmen [2][3]. - The emotional impact of the series has led many viewers to publicly abandon it due to its painful historical content, reflecting the unresolved sentiments surrounding Taiwan's past [3]. Group 2: Current Political Climate in Taiwan - Taiwan's leadership, particularly under Lai Ching-te, is increasingly vocal about military independence, announcing plans to develop a defense system akin to Israel's Iron Dome and significantly increasing defense spending, with projections of exceeding 3% of GDP by 2026 and 5% by 2030 [5][6]. - A forum titled "Taipei Security Dialogue" was held to discuss Taiwan's military strategies in response to potential actions from mainland China, indicating a proactive stance from Taiwan's military and political circles [6]. Group 3: External Influences - The article suggests that the current Taiwanese administration is deeply entrenched in a pro-independence stance, influenced by external factors, particularly the United States, which has shifted from controlling "Taiwan independence" to leveraging it for its strategic interests [7][8]. - The U.S. is perceived to be using "Taiwan independence" as a tool to exacerbate tensions between the two sides, which aligns with the Taiwanese government's military rhetoric [9]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article concludes that the resolution of the Taiwan issue requires a comprehensive approach that considers historical responsibilities and the welfare of both sides, suggesting that the right moment for resolution may not be far off [10][11].
二十年数据支撑,未来北方高温多雨常态化!
经济观察报· 2025-10-13 12:40
Group 1 - The climate in northern China is experiencing a significant trend towards "warming and humidification," with increasing temperatures and precipitation levels [4][19][21] - The number of high-temperature days in northern cities has increased dramatically, with some cities like Xinyang seeing a rise from 5 days in 2000 to 35 days in 2022 [11][12][13] - The average annual precipitation in China has been increasing, with an average increase of about 6 millimeters every 10 years from 1961 to 2024 [24][25] Group 2 - The agricultural sector is adapting to the challenges posed by frequent high temperatures and increased rainfall, requiring proactive measures for crop management [30][31] - The cultural heritage sector faces significant threats from climate change, particularly in the preservation of ancient buildings and artifacts, which are vulnerable to increased humidity and temperature fluctuations [32][33][34] - The changing climate is expected to impact various industries, necessitating adaptations to new weather patterns that resemble those of southern China [28][34]