国泰海通证券 | 研究所 肖群稀 机械首席分析师 行业核心洞察 人形机器人: 硬件先行、 算法定义、场景为王 价值主张 专注深度产业研究,从产业视角发掘长期投 资机会,寻找优质企业 年度代表作 phone Hom 点击下方图片 查看电话会回放详细议程 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：2025年人形机器人产业投资9大要点；报告日 期：20250205；报告作者：肖群稀 S0880522120001；风险提示：技术进步速度低于预期，商业化 落地速度低于预期。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on export-oriented consumer companies with global manufacturing layouts, brand output capabilities, and channel integration advantages in the current changing external environment and policy dynamics [3]. Macro Summary - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%. The core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [3]. Cost Tracking - The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan slightly depreciated, while the euro appreciated against the yuan [4]. - The shipping costs for various routes, including Europe, the U.S. East Coast, the U.S. West Coast, and Southeast Asia, have decreased year-on-year [4]. - The comprehensive index of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1125.30, down 38.11% year-on-year and 2.07% month-on-month [4]. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The U.S. restaurant industry saw a decrease in the Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) to 99.7 in July, down 0.3% from June [5]. - The U.S. housing market index in September was 32, down 21.95% year-on-year, with existing home inventory increasing by 15.67% year-on-year [5]. - U.S. wholesale sales increased by 1.4% month-on-month in July, while retail sales rose by 0.6% in August [5]. - The export volume of golf carts from China decreased by 5.85% month-on-month and 72.12% year-on-year in July [5]. - Motorcycle exports from China saw a month-on-month decline of 3.17% but a year-on-year increase of 24.42% in August [5]. Recent Activities - The article mentions various upcoming industry events and reports, including discussions on transportation, new energy, electronics, coal, agriculture, and home appliances [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a slight recovery in thematic trading activity, with most hot themes transitioning from gains to losses, while the domestic semiconductor theme remains active. It emphasizes the focus on emerging technologies, anti-involution, and expanding domestic demand as core lines of investment [1]. Thematic Summaries Theme 1: Domestic Computing Power - The capital market is accelerating financing for hard technology, with domestic AI chip company Moore Threads entering the IPO review stage, aiming to raise 8 billion yuan for self-controlled AI chip investments. The development of artificial intelligence in China is moving towards large-scale commercialization, which will further drive investment demand in computing power infrastructure and accelerate the construction of the domestic computing power ecosystem. Recommended investments include domestic computing power companies benefiting from increasing penetration rates and AI application companies benefiting from improved model efficiency and reduced costs [2]. Theme 2: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing low-cost, high-reliability, and large-scale development driven by both supply and demand. It has become a key area of global technological competition, with low-orbit satellite frequency resources becoming scarce. Multiple satellite constellations in China are entering large-scale networking phases, with breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology and large liquid rocket technology. The demand explosion, technological innovation, and scenario breakthroughs are creating opportunities for large-scale development in China's commercial aerospace industry. Recommended investments include rocket manufacturing, satellite payloads, and new infrastructure benefiting from increased transport capacity, as well as satellite communication, navigation, remote sensing, and space tourism [3]. Theme 3: Anti-Involution - An article by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasizes the need to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has pointed out that breaking "involution-style" competition is essential for achieving high-quality development in sectors like photovoltaics. The current release of capacity and significant increase in installed capacity in China's photovoltaic industry have led to a substantial decline in industry chain prices. The new energy sector, including energy storage, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, is expected to benefit from concentrated capacity release and improving demand trends. Recommended investments include energy storage, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, as well as sectors like pig farming, papermaking, chemicals, and aviation facing demand constraints [4]. Theme 4: Embodied Intelligence - The Minister of Science and Technology has indicated that efforts are underway to accelerate the application of humanoid robots in various scenarios such as automotive manufacturing, logistics, and power inspection. Tesla is set to hold meetings related to its Optimus robot, while Yuzhu Technology is initiating listing guidance, and Zhiyuan plans to acquire a controlling stake in a listed company, accelerating capital operations and financing processes. The industry is poised for large-scale development, with various forms of robots being produced on a large scale in China. Recommended investments include core components benefiting from technological upgrades, such as sensors and actuators, as well as manufacturers capable of large-scale production [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the iterative upgrades of Ascend chips and the expansion of supernode clusters, highlighting the acceleration of domestic computing power in China [1][3]. Group 1: Ascend Chip Iteration - Ascend chips are expected to maintain an annual iteration rate from 2026 to 2028, with the release of Ascend 950PR in Q1 2026, Ascend 950DT in Q4 2026, Ascend 960 in Q4 2027, and Ascend 970 in Q4 2027 [2]. - The Ascend 950 series will support new data formats such as FP8, MXFP8, HiF8, and MXFP4, while the 960 and 970 series will introduce HiF4 format [2]. Group 2: Supernode Products - Huawei has launched multiple supernode products, including Atlas 900 A3, which has been deployed over 300 times across various industries, and Atlas 950 SuperPoD and Atlas 960 SuperPoD, which can support clusters exceeding 500,000 and 1,000,000 cards, respectively [3]. - The network architecture of these supernodes supports hybrid topologies and allows for linear expansion from 64 cards to 8192 cards [3]. Group 3: Market Catalysts - Domestic semiconductor equipment has achieved technological breakthroughs, and domestic supernodes are expanding into training scenarios, indicating a positive trend for the industry [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to the new macroeconomic landscape shaped by global changes, focusing on a "new macro" framework developed over ten years of research [5]. Group 1: Research Framework - The "new macro" framework is a culmination of ten years of macroeconomic research, aiming to simplify complex economic phenomena into actionable insights [5]. - The report highlights the significance of understanding the interplay between major global powers and its implications for economic strategies [5]. Group 2: Value Proposition - The company advocates for a return to fundamental research, prioritizing depth and clarity in analysis to navigate the evolving economic environment [3]. - The focus is on creating value through insightful research that anticipates future trends and challenges [3].

报告导读： 光伏在政策、需求、业绩等方面的利好催化不断，产业链价格有望上涨，带动 基本面逐渐改善，当前位置值得重点关注。 投资建议： 我们认为国家高度重视光伏等行业的恶性竞争现象，反内卷对于光伏板块具备非常积极的影响。通过行业、政策、需求端等多方面的发力，光伏 板块整体上将迎来困境反转。当前行业正处于底部区间，值得重点关注。 防止"内卷式"竞争，光伏板块是重点行业 。 光伏作为我国 "新三样"的行业之一，在碳中和的大背景下，长期发展前景广阔，对外出口占比也较高，由于阶 段性的供需矛盾，价格处于持续承压的状态。对此，国家高度重视，持续推进反内卷的工作推进。 25 年 8 月，六部门联合召开光伏座谈会，光伏制造和发 电企业参会，部署进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序的工作。我们认为，国家整治内卷式竞争的力度在不断加强，多部门参与表明政策重视的程度较高，相关法律 的修订也将为反内卷提供强有力的保障。 多管齐下，光伏行业将迎来改善 。 行业端，头部企业将积极推动产能整合，并合理控制开工节奏，促进价格企稳回升。根据我们测算，价格仍有一定上行空 间。政策端，国家将加快推进价格法修订，进一步明确低价倾销等不正当价格行为的认定标准。 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing industry trends and product potential as the market enters a prosperous cycle [6] - The focus is on the cultural industry in China, highlighting its ascent on the global stage and the need for collaborative efforts to create a cultural renaissance [3] Industry Trends - The report discusses the competitive landscape of the gaming industry, noting that competition is intensifying [6] - It also points out that the development progress of products may not meet expectations, which could impact overall industry performance [6] Technological Impact - The report mentions the anticipated impact of AI technology on the industry, indicating that its implementation may not occur as quickly as expected [6]

Group 1: Swine Farming - The national average price of pork has dropped to 13.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.36 yuan/kg week-on-week, attributed to increased supply and weak demand [1] - Supply is expected to face pressure in September due to slow slaughter progress before mid-September and early slaughter after the National Day holiday, leading to overall price pressure [1] - The government will begin a frozen pork reserve of 15,000 tons on September 23, and the effectiveness of this reserve in stabilizing prices will depend on the volume and frequency of storage [1] Group 2: Agriculture and Seed Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released a new batch of genetically modified corn and soybean varieties, including 96 corn and 2 soybean varieties, with companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong receiving approvals [2] - Most new varieties exhibit pest resistance and herbicide tolerance, with some showing yield increases of over 9% in 2024 production trials, indicating accelerated innovation in China's seed industry [2] - The supportive policy for high-performing varieties is expected to enhance competition and innovation in the seed industry [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - On Douyin, brands like Myfoodie, Weishi, and Blue's ranked highest in daily sales, while Zhongchong's brands saw significant improvements in rankings [3] - The focus of pet brand innovation is shifting from merely pleasing pet owners to prioritizing pet health, with domestic brands showing stronger innovation capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The coal prices are expected to rebound during the off-season, with pressure anticipated in the first half of 2026, but the situation will improve compared to the same period in 2025, with coal prices potentially rising above 800 RMB/ton in the second half of 2026 [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The coal price has shown an upward trend during the off-season, with the price at the Huanghua Port for Q5500 coal reaching 714 RMB/ton as of September 19, 2025, an increase of 3.5% from the previous week [3]. - The overall coal production in July and August was 3.8 billion tons and 3.9 billion tons respectively, which is significantly lower than the average monthly production over the past year and a half, indicating a contraction in coal supply [2]. - The demand side has improved, with total electricity consumption in July increasing by 8.6% year-on-year, and thermal power generation rising by 4.3%, showing a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance [2]. Group 2: Supply and Production Insights - In August, the industrial raw coal production was 3.9 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while there was a month-on-month increase of 10 million tons [2]. - The production capacity checks in various provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, have led to a reduction in coal output, with expectations of a slight decrease in total production in the second half of the year due to these checks [2]. - The total coal production for the year is projected to be between 4.75 billion and 4.8 billion tons, remaining stable year-on-year, alongside a decrease in imports [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Comparisons - As of September 17, 2025, the price of main coking coal at the Jingtang Port was 1610 RMB/ton, reflecting a 3.9% increase, while the port's primary coke price was 1704 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.4% [4]. - The cost of domestic coal remains lower than that of imported coal, with the North Port (Q5500) being 8 RMB/ton cheaper than Australian Newcastle coal [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cuts are beneficial for the healthy operation of the U.S. economy and enhance global macro liquidity [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Equity Market - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite marginal convergence, and the AI industry has vast development potential, supporting a positive outlook for U.S. equities [2] - The Federal Reserve's preventive monetary policy adjustments help maintain a healthy economic trend and avoid inflation and employment risks, ensuring liquidity stability in the U.S. stock market [2] - The U.S. stock market is considered to have a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value in the current phase [2] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - The internal inflation stickiness and the potential for a mild decline in real interest rates lead to a neutral stance on U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - The Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts are expected to improve global macro liquidity, which may help suppress internal inflation stickiness and real interest rates [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are viewed as having a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [2] Group 3: Commodities - The improvement in global macro liquidity and the decline in real interest rates are expected to support gold performance [2] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lower the holding costs of gold, positively impacting gold prices [2] - Gold is considered to have a moderate risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [2] Group 4: Currency Market - The resilience of the Chinese economy and the decrease in extreme geopolitical conflict risks support the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3] - The Chinese economy is showing stable growth, with strong growth momentum compared to other major economies, which is expected to support the RMB's appreciation [3] - The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to exhibit a two-way fluctuation trend, with a central tendency of gradual appreciation [3]