Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a strong performance in commodities, with a notable increase in copper prices, while equity markets show a divergence in performance across regions, particularly with European markets outperforming the US and Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Performance - Commodity prices continued to strengthen, with the CRB/Nanhua index rising and the increase in COMEX copper closing at a significant 10.9% [1]. - Equity performance showed increased divergence, with US stocks declining while the dollar strengthened [1]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a strong positive correlation with US and Japanese stocks, while A-shares showed a strong negative correlation with Chinese government bonds [1]. Group 2: Equity Markets - European stock markets outperformed those in the US and Japan, with the German DAX and STOXX50 leading the gains, while US stocks experienced a broad pullback [2]. - Emerging markets saw strong performances from Vietnam and South Korea, with the Ho Chi Minh index rising by 5.1% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 4.0% [2]. - In contrast, other emerging markets like India and Brazil showed weaker performance, with Brazil's IBOVESPA dropping by 3.6% [2]. Group 3: Bond Markets - China's bond market exhibited a "bear flat" pattern, with AAA-rated credit bond yields decreasing in the short term and increasing in the long term [2]. - The US bond market showed a "bear steep" pattern, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield influenced by inflation expectations, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Commodities and Currency - Commodity prices continued to rise, with 12 out of 14 types of futures contracts increasing, particularly in copper, coking coal, and silver, while nickel saw a decline of 1.1% [3]. - Since the beginning of the year, copper has shown a cumulative increase of 39.2%, with inventory levels for gold and silver decreasing [3]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.9%, reversing its previous depreciation, while the euro, pound, and yen depreciated against the dollar, although they have appreciated relative to the dollar since the start of the year [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent emphasis on "anti-involution" by the central government is expected to promote deeper reforms across various industries, particularly benefiting the transportation sector, including aviation, express delivery, and bulk supply chain operations, potentially improving industry profitability if measures are effectively implemented [1]. Aviation - The "anti-involution" initiative is anticipated to enhance revenue management strategies, ensuring that fleet planning continues to grow at a slow pace. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has highlighted that the essence of "involution" is inefficient, homogeneous competition driven by excessive resource input, leading to low-quality competition [2]. - In 2024, airlines are expected to shift their revenue management strategy from "ticket price priority" to "seat occupancy priority," which could improve fleet turnover and occupancy rates, thereby increasing revenue and reducing costs. However, the historical high occupancy rates in the second half of 2024, coupled with ticket prices lower than those in 2019, may hinder the industry's recovery from losses [2]. - Since 2025, the supply-demand dynamics in aviation have been improving, with early signs of enhanced revenue management strategies observed in April and May. The "anti-involution" measures are likely to reduce excessive price competition, aiding in the recovery of industry profitability and ensuring slow growth in fleet planning [2]. Express Delivery - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to help maintain a healthy competitive pricing environment in the express delivery sector. The State Post Bureau has reiterated its commitment to opposing "involution" competition, as leading companies have engaged in price wars since the second half of 2024, leading to increased competition and pressure on profitability [3]. - There are concerns about the potential for a return to below-cost competition; however, the "anti-involution" stance is likely to foster a conducive environment for natural market consolidation and the rise of leading companies [3]. Bulk Supply Chain - The "anti-involution" approach is projected to stabilize and potentially increase bulk commodity prices, which would benefit profitability in the bulk supply chain sector. These companies, primarily engaged in supply chain finance, have faced challenges due to declining commodity prices and increased risk management requirements over the past two years [3]. - Key industries such as steel and coal are targeted for "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to capacity reduction and stabilization of commodity prices. Consequently, bulk supply chain companies are expected to gradually recover their profitability, with leading firms likely to continue gaining market share [3].

报告导读： 股债跷跷板调节下，现券 - 资金利差或趋于走阔。 近期股债跷跷板效应显著，对债市形成较大的扰动，印证了我们此前在报告《新式股债跷跷板，债市无近 忧有"中虑"》的判断与提示，但与此同时，当前的股债跷跷板有以下三个特征需要注意： 其一、当前股 债涨跌并非完全对称， 7 月以来股市涨幅最大的 7 月 8 日（周二），债市虽然表现弱势但跌幅相对可 控，而在周四、周五股市涨势略有收缩时，债市跌幅反而进一步扩大； 其二，后半周债市在盘中的利率上 行，也是资金（存单利率）相对收紧的共同作用的结果，并非单纯的"股债跷跷板"，股债跷跷板可能需要 通过资金波动的"乘数效应"才能发挥出作用；其三，当前股债的背离的底层机制或仍然是资金在金融股与 债券之间的"高低切换"，而非估值模型分子端"现金流"效应 。 进一步分析，当前股债跷跷板实质上的作用或是"债券资产间 / 债券 - 资金间比价的调节变量"，而非直 接影响国债利率，具体体现在调节资金利率与国债利率关系、长债与权益资产关系、低利率下债市定价逻 辑变化三方面： ①调节国债利率与资金利率利差，或将走扩。即股市持续强势下股债性价比逆转，投机资 金和边际定价力量逐步流失，债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The BW2025 exhibition highlights the trend of IP diversification, with a significant presence of domestic cultural IPs, indicating a growing market for IP-derived products as consumer disposable income increases [1][2]. Group 1: Exhibition Insights - The BW2025 exhibition, organized by Bilibili, serves as a platform for content creators and derivative product vendors, showcasing a variety of brands including Qizhi Haowan, Deli, and Aofei Entertainment [2]. - Companies are increasingly building IP matrices to leverage popular IPs for natural traffic while avoiding intense competition in saturated markets [2]. - Popular IPs such as Conan, Fuliang, and others have multiple toy companies vying for their licensing, indicating a competitive landscape [2]. Group 2: Product Development Trends - There is a rapid expansion of product types among toy companies based on IP, with leaders like Kayi and Jikasa diversifying into plush toys, stationery, and more [3]. - The integration of IP into various product lines is expected to create effective synergy and enhance the overall value of the IP [3]. - The importance of operational and channel capabilities of leading toy companies is emphasized as they navigate the increasingly interconnected product landscape [3]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement - Emotional value and interactive gaming experiences are becoming prominent, with card companies setting up live battle areas to meet social needs [3]. - Events such as Coser interactions and product exchanges at the exhibition enhance the engagement and popularity of IP products [3].

Core Insights - The financial data for June exceeded expectations, driven by three main factors: improved corporate liquidity due to debt resolution policies, strong foreign exchange settlement intentions under the expectation of currency appreciation, and a narrowing of household balance sheet contraction [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - The growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9% in June, up from 8.7%, with new social financing amounting to 4.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan [1]. - New government debt reached 1.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 507.2 billion yuan, while new loans amounted to 2.36 trillion yuan, up 171 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - The balance of loans remained stable at a year-on-year growth rate of 7.1%, with foreign currency loans increasing by 32.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.3 billion yuan, marking the third-largest contribution to June's social financing [1]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing Financial Data - **Factor 1: Debt Resolution Policies** Corporate liquidity has significantly improved under debt resolution policies, with a notable increase in government debt and stable government deposits, leading to a substantial rise in corporate deposits and short-term loans [6]. - **Factor 2: Currency Appreciation Expectations** Following a weakening of the US dollar, corporate willingness to settle in foreign currency has surged, contributing positively to corporate deposits amid expectations of renminbi appreciation [6]. - **Factor 3: Household Balance Sheet Adjustments** The contraction of household balance sheets has narrowed, with a noticeable decrease in early repayment rates for housing loans in June, although the elasticity of household loan growth remains to be observed [6].

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote deeper reforms across various industries, particularly benefiting the transportation sector, including aviation, express delivery, and bulk supply chain operations, potentially improving industry profitability if implemented effectively [3]. Aviation - The "anti-involution" initiative will enhance revenue management strategies, ensuring a slow growth in fleet planning. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has emphasized the need to address low-efficiency, homogeneous competition, which has led to excessive low pricing and capacity deployment [4]. - In 2024, airlines are shifting their revenue management strategy from "ticket price priority" to "seat occupancy priority," which is expected to improve fleet turnover and occupancy rates. However, despite record high occupancy rates in the second half of 2024, ticket prices remain below 2019 levels, which may hinder the industry's recovery [4]. - The ongoing improvement in supply and demand since 2025, along with the initial positive changes in revenue management strategies, suggests that the "anti-involution" policy will help reduce excessive low pricing and support the recovery of industry profitability [4]. Express Delivery - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to foster a healthy competitive pricing environment in the express delivery sector. The State Post Bureau has reiterated its opposition to "involution-style" competition, which has led to renewed price wars among leading companies since the second half of 2024, putting pressure on profitability [5]. - The continued enforcement of the "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote natural market concentration and the rise of leading firms in the express delivery industry [5]. Bulk Supply Chain - The "anti-involution" initiative is likely to stabilize and rebound bulk prices, which will benefit profitability in the bulk supply chain sector. Despite the inherent risks associated with price fluctuations, the implementation of capacity reduction measures is expected to support price stabilization in key industries such as steel and coal [5]. - As a result, bulk supply chain companies are projected to gradually recover their profitability, with leading firms likely to continue gaining market share [5].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to experience a turning point in 2025, with demand stabilizing and supply-side reductions contributing to a recovery after a prolonged downturn in profitability since 2021 [1][4][8]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The steel industry's profitability began to decline in 2021 and has continued to decrease, with initial signs of bottoming out in early 2024 [1][4]. - Demand for steel is gradually stabilizing, with limited downward pressure due to a decrease in the proportion of demand from the real estate sector and an increase in manufacturing and export demand [5][9]. - The industry has been experiencing a significant reduction in supply since 2018, with no new capacity allowed and existing capacity being controlled since 2021, leading to a market-driven exit of inefficient producers [5][10]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The real estate sector's contribution to steel demand has decreased to below 20%, reducing its negative impact on the industry, while infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are expected to support demand [9][14]. - Steel exports have shown resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 20.60% in the first eight months of 2024, indicating a stable demand environment [14]. - The expectation of supply contraction is reinforced by ongoing policies aimed at reducing low-efficiency production and promoting industry consolidation [10][18]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - The cost of steel production is expected to decline due to increased supply of coking coal and iron ore, which will help restore profitability in the industry [6][11]. - The concentration of the steel industry is anticipated to increase, with leading companies benefiting from product structure and cost advantages, enhancing their competitive edge [6][15]. - The profitability of the industry is projected to recover gradually, with a reported profit margin of 9.96% for 247 steel companies as of September 2024, reflecting an improvement from previous lows [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel industry is poised for a recovery phase, with expectations of improved demand and supply restructuring leading to enhanced profitability for leading firms [17][18]. - The implementation of policies aimed at promoting mergers and acquisitions is expected to accelerate, further enhancing the growth potential and profitability of leading steel companies [18][19].

Macro - The recent high-frequency data indicates stable performance in consumer goods, particularly in the automotive and textile sectors during the off-season [3] - Service consumption has been affected by weather and supply issues, leading to average performance in travel, cinema, and entertainment sectors [3] - Investment is accelerating with the issuance of special bonds, while new home sales are experiencing seasonal declines and the land market is cooling down [3] - Import growth from Korea to China is slowing, and Vietnam's export substitution effect remains strong, with port operations slowing and export freight rates declining [3] - Overall production is stable with a slight increase, driven by high temperatures leading to increased residential electricity usage, while traditional industries like steel and petrochemicals remain steady [3] - CPI and PPI are both showing marginal increases [3] - The dollar index has rebounded, with slight increases in funding rates and government bond yields [3] Overseas Strategy - There are misconceptions regarding the dominance of small-cap stocks, including the belief that macro liquidity is beneficial for small-cap stocks, which is historically inconsistent [6][9] - The influx of quantitative private equity is not the primary driver of small-cap stock performance, as the scale of private equity entering the market has not been as significant as perceived [6][9] - Historical data suggests that high trading congestion does not necessarily lead to significant pullbacks in small-cap stocks [6][9] - The dominance of small-cap stocks may be attributed to changes in micro-funding structures, particularly the entry of retail investors and their irrational trading behaviors [9] - The correlation between retail investor inflows and small-cap index performance indicates a direct relationship, with significant retail inflows leading to outperformance of small-cap indices [9] - Future shifts between large-cap and small-cap styles may depend on turning points in economic trends, with historical patterns showing that institutional funds become the main drivers during significant macro policy shifts [10] Construction - The article from Qiushi Network emphasizes that urban renewal is essential for transforming urban development and improving living standards [15] - It advocates for the careful advancement of dangerous housing renovations, comprehensive upgrades of old urban communities, and improvements in urban functions [15] - High standards in municipal infrastructure construction are necessary, along with the deployment of IoT devices for enhanced urban risk management and governance [15]

Core Viewpoint - The release of Grok 4 by xAI marks a significant advancement in AI technology, leading to increased exploration and innovation within the industry, pushing it towards a higher development stage [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Capabilities - Grok 4 has achieved a tenfold increase in pre-training and reasoning computation capabilities compared to its predecessor, with a training scale reaching 100 times that of Grok 2 [2]. - In human-level testing, Grok 4 scored 45%, doubling the performance of the previous leading AI, Gemini 2.5pro, and has set new records in authoritative benchmark tests like GPQA and AIME25 [2]. - The multi-agent collaboration feature of Grok 4 Heavy has demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving full marks in AIME25, indicating a significant leap in reasoning capabilities beyond traditional human-designed tests [2]. Group 2: Real-World Applications - Grok 4 has shown revolutionary progress in solving real-world problems, with a doubling of response speed and halving of latency in voice functions, significantly enhancing user experience [3]. - In the Vending-Bench test, Grok 4 generated a net asset value of 4694.15, outperforming the second-place Claude Opus 4 by more than two times, validating its long-term strategic execution capabilities [3]. - The system has been utilized in the biomedical field to assist in screening millions of experimental data and generating research hypotheses, proving its effectiveness in complex cross-industry tasks [3]. Group 3: Future Developments - Despite its advancements, Grok 4 still has notable shortcomings in multi-modal capabilities, particularly in image understanding and generation, which require significant improvement [4]. - Future developments will focus on breakthroughs in video generation technology, aiming to create an AI video production closed loop through end-to-end training on the X platform [4]. - The ultimate goal is to build a super-intelligent agent that integrates deep thinking, real-time response, and multi-modal collaboration, fundamentally reshaping human-machine collaboration paradigms [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the rapid expansion and future potential of the Sci-Tech bond market, driven by policy support and market dynamics [1][4]. - The development of the Sci-Tech bond market has gone through three phases: 1) the Double Innovation Bond phase (2015-2021), 2) the Sci-Tech Bond phase (2022-2025), and 3) the Sci-Tech Board phase starting from May 2025 [1]. - As of June 2025, the cumulative issuance of new Sci-Tech bonds under the new guidelines has exceeded 585 billion, accounting for nearly 50% of the expected total issuance for 2024 [1]. Group 2 - The first batch of Sci-Tech bond ETFs has completed fundraising, with 10 ETFs launched by July 7, 2025, tracking high-rated public technology innovation company bonds [2]. - The average market duration of the tracked indices for AAA-rated technology innovation company bonds is approximately 3.75, 3.81, and 3.27 for different exchanges, with a total sample bond balance exceeding 1 trillion [2]. Group 3 - The introduction of Sci-Tech bond ETFs is expected to enhance the risk-return profile of investment portfolios, particularly in the context of the growing trend of passive investment in the domestic bond market [3]. - The rapid growth of credit bond ETFs since May 2025 has led to a significant increase in the overall market size, driven by positive feedback trading and expectations of policy benefits [4]. - The combination of risk-sharing, expansion of issuers, and innovative tools in the current Sci-Tech bond phase aims to better meet the real needs of technological innovation [1][4].