Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading "Security Analysis" by Benjamin Graham, highlighting it as a must-read for every investor, especially those interested in value investing [2][6]. Summary by Sections Importance of "Security Analysis" - "Security Analysis" is regarded as a "bible" of value investing, essential for anyone wishing to pursue this investment strategy [6]. - The book provides a clear direction for investors, emphasizing that effort alone does not guarantee success in investing; the right approach is crucial [6][7]. Investment vs. Speculation - The first chapter of "Security Analysis" distinguishes between investment and speculation, stating that investors focus on risk and return, while speculators are influenced by market and price factors [8][9]. - Investors should concentrate on the intrinsic value of a company, rather than external factors like management actions or market liquidity [10]. Key Concepts Introduced by Graham - Graham introduced the concept of "margin of safety," which is defined as buying an asset for less than its intrinsic value, ensuring a buffer against uncertainties [10]. - The book also discusses cash flow as a critical measure for determining an asset's profitability, advocating for a cautious approach to estimating intrinsic value [10]. Updates in the New Edition - The new edition of "Security Analysis" has been expanded by approximately 150,000 words, bringing the total to 1.1 million words, and includes contributions from several prominent value investors [13][16]. - The updated version incorporates modern insights, including behavioral finance concepts like "anchoring effect," which explains why many struggle with value investing despite its apparent simplicity [14]. Broader Applicability - The book's new content demonstrates that value investing principles are applicable not only in the U.S. but may also be more effective in the Chinese market [15]. - The enduring relevance of "Security Analysis" is highlighted, as it continues to provide foundational knowledge for successful investing nearly 90 years after its original publication [16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of renaming ETF products by various fund companies, initiated by E Fund, signifies a pivotal moment in the asset management industry, potentially impacting the long-term development of ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Renaming and Standardization - E Fund's adoption of the naming convention "Index + ETF + Manager" has been widely imitated by other fund companies, aiming to provide clearer product solutions for investors [2][4]. - The renaming process emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability and clarity in product names, risk-return characteristics, and investment styles [3][6]. - A total of 54 out of 90 E Fund ETFs have been renamed according to the new standard, representing nearly 60% of their ETF products [14]. Group 2: User Experience and Clarity - The confusion among investors regarding ETF names arises from discrepancies between ETF abbreviations and their underlying indices, lack of management company information, and overly complex names [7][8][9]. - E Fund's efforts to standardize ETF naming aim to enhance user experience by making product identification easier and more intuitive [10][12][22]. - The categorization of ETFs into clear segments, such as scale indices, style factors, and industry themes, helps investors find suitable products more efficiently [17][19]. Group 3: Industry Evolution and User-Centric Approach - The evolution of the asset management industry is driven by changing investor demands and the establishment of industry standards, moving from a focus on high returns to stable product solutions [6][28]. - E Fund's initiative to rename ETFs reflects a broader shift towards prioritizing user experience and recognition over mere sales [27][24]. - The asset management industry's development is characterized by collaborative innovation and rule-making, enhancing user experience across the board [28][29].

- en d - 按姓名首字母排序 安 昀 | 鲍无可 | 包承超 | 包斅文 | 贲兴振 | 薄官辉 毕天宇 | 曹 晋 | 曹 霞 | 曹文俊 | 常亚桥 | 常 蓁 常 远 | 崔建波 | 陈璇淼 | 陈一峰 | 陈 栋 | 陈 平 陈 媛 | 陈立秋 | 陈 军 | 陈觉平 | 陈 浩 | 陈文扬 陈 宇 | 陈金伟 | 陈国光 | 陈思靖 | 陈 鹏 | 陈 玮 熟悉我的朋友都知道，我很少举办线下的交流活动，一方面确实个人能力有限，线下活动需要涉 及到大量的会场组织，另一方面我也希望自己确实能有一些新的思考，不辜负大家线下交流的时 间。 明天下午有一次难得的线下活动，和易方达指数研究部基金经理李树建一起对谈"价值投资新范 式"。活动地点在上海马当路458弄的一个书店，欢迎有兴趣的朋友，扫描下面海报的二维码报名 参加！ 上下滑动阅读更多内 容 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of compound interest and the need for investors to understand both the benefits of compounding and the inherent uncertainties in the market. It highlights the concept of "antifragility" as proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, suggesting that investors should prepare for low-probability, high-impact events while leveraging the power of compounding to achieve long-term success [4][10]. Summary by Sections Compound Interest and Its Power - Albert Einstein referred to compound interest as the "eighth wonder of the world," exemplified by Warren Buffett's journey of turning $5,000 into $155.9 billion over 68 years [1]. - The article recounts a story by Peter Lynch about Native Americans selling Manhattan for $24 in 1626, illustrating that if they had invested that amount at an annual return of 8%, it could have grown to $30 trillion after 362 years [2]. Investment Philosophy and Uncertainty - Jack Schwager, author of "Market Wizards," emphasizes the importance of staying in the game, as one mistake can end an investor's journey [3]. - The first layer of value investing is understanding the effect of compounding, while the second layer involves recognizing the fragility of the world and preparing for unexpected events [4][5]. Taleb's Antifragility Concept - Taleb's ideas on antifragility and the nature of uncertainty are increasingly relevant in today's volatile environment, where unexpected events can disrupt linear progress [8][10]. - The article discusses the need for investors to "buy insurance" against low-probability events that could have catastrophic consequences, aligning with Taleb's philosophy [8][14]. Wealth Management Strategies - The article highlights the importance of diversification in wealth management, suggesting that it should be done in an "antifragile" manner to withstand market volatility [14]. - It draws parallels between investment strategies and life management, emphasizing the need for a robust approach to health, career, and overall well-being as one ages [16].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the power of compound interest and its significance in wealth accumulation, highlighting Warren Buffett's investment journey and the exponential growth of wealth over time [1] - It discusses the importance of patience in investing, noting that significant wealth often accumulates later in life, as demonstrated by Buffett's experience [1] - The concept of compound interest is presented as a fundamental principle governing not only financial growth but also personal habits and behaviors [1] Group 2 - The article explores the idea that habits shape our lives, with a significant portion of our actions being automatic and unconscious [3][5] - It illustrates how good habits can lead to success, while bad habits can create a cycle of dissatisfaction and missed opportunities [6][7] - The text suggests that small, consistent choices can lead to substantial changes over time, emphasizing the importance of tracking and adjusting daily actions [10][11][12] Group 3 - The article provides a practical strategy for personal development, encouraging individuals to track their daily choices related to specific goals [17][21] - It highlights the significance of consistency in making small improvements, which can lead to remarkable results through the compound effect [26][27] - The text uses examples from sports to illustrate how minor performance differences can lead to significant financial rewards, reinforcing the idea of incremental progress [27][28] Group 4 - The article presents a comparison of two individuals' savings strategies, illustrating the long-term benefits of starting early with compound interest [28][29] - It emphasizes that regardless of when one starts, it is never too late to benefit from the compound effect, encouraging immediate action towards personal goals [31] - The text concludes with a formula for achieving luck through preparation, attitude, opportunity, and action, underscoring the importance of taking initiative [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - Value investing is a timeless strategy that, when applied consistently, can lead to long-term market outperformance. The framework of value investing is akin to a "axiom" that adapts to the characteristics of great companies in different eras [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The essence of stock investment lies in "achieving ownership value appreciation through intrinsic growth" [1]. - Cash flow is increasingly recognized as a critical component of investment returns, a concept emphasized by the fund manager years ago [1]. - Value investing focuses on the company's inherent value rather than market sentiment or style factors, making it a robust approach to outperforming indices [13]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Penghua Strategy Select Fund, managed by Yuan Hang, achieved a net value growth rate of 103.57% from August 13, 2015, to June 3, 2025, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which returned 18.42% during the same period [2]. - Over nine complete years from 2016 to 2024, the fund outperformed the Wind Active Equity Fund Index in seven of those years, demonstrating a high relative return success rate [3]. - In the structural bull markets of 2019 and 2020, the fund consistently outperformed the CSI 300 Index by at least 25% each year [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Yuan Hang's investment strategy is characterized by a focus on high-quality cash flow generation and the purchase of undervalued stocks, which are expected to recover in valuation once external challenges are resolved [15][16]. - The investment approach emphasizes a broad selection range, covering stable growth, dividend value, quality growth, and cyclical growth companies [18]. - Key selection criteria include the company's business model, competitive advantage, management quality, and sufficient margin of safety [19][20][21]. Group 4: Market Insights - Yuan Hang identifies two distinct market phenomena: trend phenomena, which align with long-term evolution, and cyclical phenomena, which diverge from it [27]. - He highlights three investment opportunities in the current environment: financial sectors benefiting from monetary easing, consumer and industrial sectors undergoing upgrades, and structural growth opportunities in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [28]. Group 5: Fund Management Approach - The Penghua Co-Winning Future Mixed Fund features a performance benchmark composed of 70% CSI 300 Index, 10% Hang Seng Index, and 20% Zhongzheng Composite Bond Index, reflecting a comprehensive view of China's economic structure [33]. - Yuan Hang's investment framework aligns closely with fundamental value investing principles, focusing on high-quality growth and valuation recovery, which has been historically validated [33][37].

"未来"，总是能让人类展开无限的想象。 （图源电影《星际穿越》） 在凯文・凯利所著的 新书《2049》 中， 他以 25 年作为时间维度， 提出了关于未来世界的 5个 核心概念——镜像世界、类人智能、AI 助理、互见性以及内容井喷。 基于凯文・凯利在书中展现出的前瞻性视角以及对未来趋势的深刻洞察，我们梳理出了他 最新的 100 个关于未来的前沿预测， 这些预测涵盖技术、社会、生活等多个方面，将帮助我们更好地认 识未来、想象未来、适应未来。 *以下内容摘编自凯文·凯利《2049：未来10000天的可能》 镜像世界， 新一代技术革命的增长拐点 1. 到了 2049 年， 大多数智能手机将被智能眼镜取代。 当数十亿生活在城市地区的人戴上这些 智能眼镜时，他们看到的是现实世界与虚拟世界的叠加，也就形成了 "镜像世界" 。 2. 镜像世界将是下一代互联网， 是一个每个人都可以在其中拥有身临其境的体验、AI 赋能的沉 浸式互联网。在这个全新的互联网中，人机互动的方式将从使用键盘、鼠标和触摸屏转换成使用 语言、动作甚至眼神。 《连线》杂志创始主编、"硅谷精神之父"、《失控》《必然》作者凯文・凯利确信： 在不远的将 来，人工 ...

Core Viewpoints - The rise of China's technology industry has become a focal point in the global capital market, with significant breakthroughs in AI and other sectors boosting market confidence [2] - The current low valuation of A-shares presents structural investment opportunities, particularly in new productive forces and cyclical sectors benefiting from economic recovery [3] - The AI sector continues to show promise, with ongoing developments in computing infrastructure and applications, indicating a stable demand and potential for growth [4][6] Group 1: Technology Sector Insights - The AI industry is entering a new phase of development, with significant advancements in large models and domestic computing capabilities, creating investment opportunities [13] - The market is witnessing a shift from competitive training investments to a focus on inference demand, suggesting a more stable and prosperous application landscape [9][10] - The integration of AI into various applications, including mobile devices, is expected to drive significant growth, comparable to the emergence of smartphones [8] Group 2: Healthcare Sector Insights - The healthcare sector is poised for growth, driven by demographic trends and the internationalization of innovative drugs, with current valuations reflecting a potential for long-term investment [5][11] - The market is beginning to recognize the value of innovative drugs, with expectations for a revaluation of leading companies and key stocks in the sector [12] - AI applications in healthcare are seen as catalysts for increased investment and market interest, particularly in the context of policy support and innovation [11] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Trade Considerations - The trade environment remains uncertain, with ongoing tariff negotiations impacting market sentiment, yet domestic policies are expected to stabilize economic growth [5][16] - The potential for a rebound in global capital flows to China is anticipated, particularly in the context of the Hong Kong market's structural opportunities [13] - The automotive and new energy sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with significant growth in domestic market share and export volumes [14] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The focus is on identifying companies with strong alpha characteristics, particularly in sectors like automotive components and electronics, which exhibit growth potential and competitive strength [18] - There is an emphasis on cyclical recovery, targeting companies with low valuations and profit margin elasticity, particularly in industries like shipping and aviation [18] - The strategy includes avoiding sectors showing signs of bubble tendencies, favoring structural opportunities over systemic ones [16]

Core Viewpoint - Value investing is applicable in the A-share market, as long as there are transparent prices and assessable values for assets [1][2]. Group 1: Concerns about Value Investing - The anxiety surrounding the application of value investing stems from concerns about its ability to outperform the market and whether investors will trust active management again [2][3]. - It is a misconception that all investors can achieve excess returns; the total returns of all investors equal the market returns minus transaction costs [2]. - The rise of index funds is a result of diminishing excess returns rather than the disappearance of excess returns [2]. Group 2: Opportunities for Excess Returns - The ability to achieve excess returns is influenced by the similarity of investment strategies among investors and the differences in their investment capabilities [3]. - A-share market still presents opportunities for excess returns, as not all investors have the same capabilities [3]. Group 3: Building Trust with Investors - Gaining trust from investors is more challenging than outperforming the market; communication during downturns is crucial [4]. - The key to regaining trust lies in aligning the returns of investors with the net asset value of the fund [3][4]. Group 4: Managing Volatility - Many investors lack the patience for long-term holding and tend to trade too frequently, which harms their returns [5]. - Research indicates that funds with lower volatility tend to have better performance and lower chances of loss for investors [5]. - The challenge is to find ways to reduce volatility without sacrificing returns, which varies for each fund manager [5]. Group 5: Realism in Investment Strategy - Fund managers often exhibit idealistic views that may not align with reality, leading to flawed logic in their investment narratives [6]. - A balanced approach that combines realistic methods with idealistic goals is essential for successful value investing [7].

"顶级的成功不是因为他们是谁，而是因为他们以什么方式思考，以什么逻辑行动。" 爱因斯坦有个著名的问题："你所经历过的最大的挑战是什么？"埃隆·马斯克对此足足思考了30秒，给出了一 个非常精彩的回答：" 确保你有一个可纠错的反馈闭环 （making sure you have a corrective feedback loop）"。 这种可纠错的反馈闭环，本质上是在不确定性中建立认知校准机制。大家都说马斯克是"商业天才"，为什么 马斯克如此厉害呢？原因在于他是一个贝叶斯主义者。 第一，马斯克是一个有信仰的人，服从自己的使命。我们要分开信仰和信念。信仰是一定要去火星，而信念 是火箭发射成功的概率有多大。 第二，马斯克行事尊崇第一性原理和概率优化，最为著名的案例便是SpaceX。第三，就是冒险和用户满 意。对此，埃隆·马斯克说过一句话，"我根本就没有想那么复杂，对于用户来说我就是要造最好的车"。 简而言之，作为一个商业天才，埃隆·马斯克一方面知道在一个不确定的世界里面如何运用概率去自我完 善、迭代产品；另一方面，他也意识到了概率和物理定律的边界在哪里。 正如巴菲特对风险本质的洞察： "风险来自于你不知道自己在做什 ...