Core Viewpoint - Value investing is a timeless strategy that, when applied consistently, can lead to long-term market outperformance. The framework of value investing is akin to a "axiom" that adapts to the characteristics of great companies in different eras [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The essence of stock investment lies in "achieving ownership value appreciation through intrinsic growth" [1]. - Cash flow is increasingly recognized as a critical component of investment returns, a concept emphasized by the fund manager years ago [1]. - Value investing focuses on the company's inherent value rather than market sentiment or style factors, making it a robust approach to outperforming indices [13]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Penghua Strategy Select Fund, managed by Yuan Hang, achieved a net value growth rate of 103.57% from August 13, 2015, to June 3, 2025, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which returned 18.42% during the same period [2]. - Over nine complete years from 2016 to 2024, the fund outperformed the Wind Active Equity Fund Index in seven of those years, demonstrating a high relative return success rate [3]. - In the structural bull markets of 2019 and 2020, the fund consistently outperformed the CSI 300 Index by at least 25% each year [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Yuan Hang's investment strategy is characterized by a focus on high-quality cash flow generation and the purchase of undervalued stocks, which are expected to recover in valuation once external challenges are resolved [15][16]. - The investment approach emphasizes a broad selection range, covering stable growth, dividend value, quality growth, and cyclical growth companies [18]. - Key selection criteria include the company's business model, competitive advantage, management quality, and sufficient margin of safety [19][20][21]. Group 4: Market Insights - Yuan Hang identifies two distinct market phenomena: trend phenomena, which align with long-term evolution, and cyclical phenomena, which diverge from it [27]. - He highlights three investment opportunities in the current environment: financial sectors benefiting from monetary easing, consumer and industrial sectors undergoing upgrades, and structural growth opportunities in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [28]. Group 5: Fund Management Approach - The Penghua Co-Winning Future Mixed Fund features a performance benchmark composed of 70% CSI 300 Index, 10% Hang Seng Index, and 20% Zhongzheng Composite Bond Index, reflecting a comprehensive view of China's economic structure [33]. - Yuan Hang's investment framework aligns closely with fundamental value investing principles, focusing on high-quality growth and valuation recovery, which has been historically validated [33][37].

"未来"，总是能让人类展开无限的想象。 （图源电影《星际穿越》） 在凯文・凯利所著的 新书《2049》 中， 他以 25 年作为时间维度， 提出了关于未来世界的 5个 核心概念——镜像世界、类人智能、AI 助理、互见性以及内容井喷。 基于凯文・凯利在书中展现出的前瞻性视角以及对未来趋势的深刻洞察，我们梳理出了他 最新的 100 个关于未来的前沿预测， 这些预测涵盖技术、社会、生活等多个方面，将帮助我们更好地认 识未来、想象未来、适应未来。 *以下内容摘编自凯文·凯利《2049：未来10000天的可能》 镜像世界， 新一代技术革命的增长拐点 1. 到了 2049 年， 大多数智能手机将被智能眼镜取代。 当数十亿生活在城市地区的人戴上这些 智能眼镜时，他们看到的是现实世界与虚拟世界的叠加，也就形成了 "镜像世界" 。 2. 镜像世界将是下一代互联网， 是一个每个人都可以在其中拥有身临其境的体验、AI 赋能的沉 浸式互联网。在这个全新的互联网中，人机互动的方式将从使用键盘、鼠标和触摸屏转换成使用 语言、动作甚至眼神。 《连线》杂志创始主编、"硅谷精神之父"、《失控》《必然》作者凯文・凯利确信： 在不远的将 来，人工 ...

Core Viewpoints - The rise of China's technology industry has become a focal point in the global capital market, with significant breakthroughs in AI and other sectors boosting market confidence [2] - The current low valuation of A-shares presents structural investment opportunities, particularly in new productive forces and cyclical sectors benefiting from economic recovery [3] - The AI sector continues to show promise, with ongoing developments in computing infrastructure and applications, indicating a stable demand and potential for growth [4][6] Group 1: Technology Sector Insights - The AI industry is entering a new phase of development, with significant advancements in large models and domestic computing capabilities, creating investment opportunities [13] - The market is witnessing a shift from competitive training investments to a focus on inference demand, suggesting a more stable and prosperous application landscape [9][10] - The integration of AI into various applications, including mobile devices, is expected to drive significant growth, comparable to the emergence of smartphones [8] Group 2: Healthcare Sector Insights - The healthcare sector is poised for growth, driven by demographic trends and the internationalization of innovative drugs, with current valuations reflecting a potential for long-term investment [5][11] - The market is beginning to recognize the value of innovative drugs, with expectations for a revaluation of leading companies and key stocks in the sector [12] - AI applications in healthcare are seen as catalysts for increased investment and market interest, particularly in the context of policy support and innovation [11] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Trade Considerations - The trade environment remains uncertain, with ongoing tariff negotiations impacting market sentiment, yet domestic policies are expected to stabilize economic growth [5][16] - The potential for a rebound in global capital flows to China is anticipated, particularly in the context of the Hong Kong market's structural opportunities [13] - The automotive and new energy sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with significant growth in domestic market share and export volumes [14] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The focus is on identifying companies with strong alpha characteristics, particularly in sectors like automotive components and electronics, which exhibit growth potential and competitive strength [18] - There is an emphasis on cyclical recovery, targeting companies with low valuations and profit margin elasticity, particularly in industries like shipping and aviation [18] - The strategy includes avoiding sectors showing signs of bubble tendencies, favoring structural opportunities over systemic ones [16]

Core Viewpoint - Value investing is applicable in the A-share market, as long as there are transparent prices and assessable values for assets [1][2]. Group 1: Concerns about Value Investing - The anxiety surrounding the application of value investing stems from concerns about its ability to outperform the market and whether investors will trust active management again [2][3]. - It is a misconception that all investors can achieve excess returns; the total returns of all investors equal the market returns minus transaction costs [2]. - The rise of index funds is a result of diminishing excess returns rather than the disappearance of excess returns [2]. Group 2: Opportunities for Excess Returns - The ability to achieve excess returns is influenced by the similarity of investment strategies among investors and the differences in their investment capabilities [3]. - A-share market still presents opportunities for excess returns, as not all investors have the same capabilities [3]. Group 3: Building Trust with Investors - Gaining trust from investors is more challenging than outperforming the market; communication during downturns is crucial [4]. - The key to regaining trust lies in aligning the returns of investors with the net asset value of the fund [3][4]. Group 4: Managing Volatility - Many investors lack the patience for long-term holding and tend to trade too frequently, which harms their returns [5]. - Research indicates that funds with lower volatility tend to have better performance and lower chances of loss for investors [5]. - The challenge is to find ways to reduce volatility without sacrificing returns, which varies for each fund manager [5]. Group 5: Realism in Investment Strategy - Fund managers often exhibit idealistic views that may not align with reality, leading to flawed logic in their investment narratives [6]. - A balanced approach that combines realistic methods with idealistic goals is essential for successful value investing [7].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a corrective feedback loop in decision-making, particularly in uncertain environments, as exemplified by Elon Musk's approach to business and innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Elon Musk's Approach - Musk operates with a strong belief in his mission, distinguishing between faith in achieving goals and belief in the probability of success [3]. - He applies first principles thinking and probability optimization, notably in SpaceX, focusing on user satisfaction and product excellence [4]. - Musk's success stems from understanding how to iterate and improve products in an uncertain world while recognizing the limits of probability and physical laws [5]. Group 2: Bayesian Thinking - Bayesian theory serves as a powerful mathematical tool for understanding and managing uncertainty, allowing for cognitive calibration through updated beliefs based on new evidence [6][7]. - The article outlines the components of Bayesian reasoning, including prior probability, likelihood, marginal probability, and posterior probability, which help in updating beliefs [8][9][10][12]. Group 3: Decision-Making Framework - The article presents a three-tiered framework for applying Bayesian thinking in decision-making: establishing prior beliefs, dynamically adjusting based on new data, and adopting probabilistic thinking [20][28][35]. - The first tier involves quantifying prior beliefs to avoid rigid decision-making based on intuition [21][24]. - The second tier emphasizes the need for dynamic adjustments in decision models as market conditions change, illustrated by examples from Netflix and the electric vehicle market [29][31][32]. - The third tier highlights the importance of probabilistic thinking, where decision-makers consider multiple scenarios and their associated probabilities rather than making absolute claims [36][38][41]. Group 4: Implications of Bayesian Thinking - The article argues that Bayesian thinking is essential for navigating uncertainty in today's complex environment, providing a framework for continuous evolution in decision-making [60][67]. - It suggests that the ability to manage uncertainty through Bayesian principles will be crucial for future success in various fields [68].

导读：医药，这个曾经被寄予厚望的"黄金赛道"，在过去几年遭遇了最漫长的"寒冬"。但是在医药基金的冬天中，优秀 的医药投资团队并没有"冬眠"。当行业进入反转后，机会一定是留给有准备的人。 2025年，A股市场呈现了比较明显的结构性行情。截至6月9日，沪深300指数下跌了-1.26%，但基金业绩的表现出现了 很大差异，这种差异背后主要来自基金经理的阿尔法能力。 以今年的医药板块为例，不少医药基金表现突出，让大家"误认为"今年是一次医药板块的整体性牛市。但是，根据Wind 的数据统计，医药生物板块今年的涨幅为10.29%，并不突出 （数据来源：Wind；数据截至：2025年6月9日） 。 数据来源：Wind；数据截至：2025年6月9日 政策产业共振， 医药投资窗口全面开启 当下的医药投资领域，正迎来政策东风、产业质变、全球共振与业绩兑现的多重利好叠加期，创新药赛道的投资价值正 以肉眼可见的速度迸发。 从政策维度看，顶层设计正为创新药产业铺设高速跑道。《全链条支持创新药发展实施方案》政策的落地，犹如为行业 注入"强心剂"——发展创新药关系医药产业发展，关系人民健康福祉。要全链条强化政策保障，统筹用好价格管理、医 保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The TOP 100 active equity fund manager list has consistently outperformed the Wind偏股基金指数 for four consecutive years, indicating the value of excellent active equity fund managers [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Fund Managers - The TOP 100 list includes fund managers who have shown the ability to outperform their peers, with a specific focus on those managing Hong Kong stocks [4][9]. - The performance of the Hong Kong fund managers from the TOP 100 list yielded a return of 22.89% as of May 28, 2025, compared to the Hang Seng Index's 17.45% and the active Hong Kong fund index's 13.61% [9]. - Despite the success of individual fund managers, the overall active equity funds in the Hong Kong market struggle to outperform the index, similar to trends in other mature markets [9][10]. Group 2: Notable Fund Managers - Zhang Feng from 富国基金 has over 25 years of experience and has built a strong reputation in the Hong Kong market, with his fund 富国中国中小盘 being one of the top performers [12][13][14]. - Ning Jun, also from 富国基金, has a broad investment style and has managed funds that have consistently performed well, including 富国沪港深业绩驱动 [20][24]. - Bai Yang from 大成国际 has a strong academic background and has received multiple awards for his performance, managing funds that rank well in the Hong Kong market [33][41]. - Luo Jiaming, with 18 years of experience in Hong Kong, has a quality-focused investment style, but his recent performance has been disappointing due to market conditions [43][49]. - Xiong Xiaoya from 南方基金 has shown promising results with her growth-oriented investment style, although her team's recent changes may impact future performance [56][59]. - Zhang Jintao from 嘉实基金 has a value-oriented investment approach and has managed funds with solid performance, although his large management scale may affect focus [63][66]. Group 3: Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is characterized by concentrated liquidity, making it challenging for active fund managers to consistently outperform the index [9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting fund managers with proven track records and the ability to navigate the complexities of the Hong Kong market [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of gold as a long-standing investment asset, particularly in the context of economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. It highlights the historical performance of gold during financial crises and its appeal as a safe-haven asset in modern investment strategies. Group 1: Historical Context and Investment Insights - Gold has been a symbol of wealth and status in Chinese culture for over 4000 years, predating paper currency as a form of money [1] - The 2008 financial crisis showcased gold's resilience, as it was one of the few assets that appreciated while others plummeted [1][2] - The article recounts a personal anecdote about recommending gold investments during a politically charged environment, reflecting the ingrained belief in gold as a reliable asset [1] Group 2: Notable Investors and Their Strategies - John Paulson, a hedge fund manager, gained fame by betting against the U.S. housing bubble in 2005, using credit default swaps (CDS) as a strategic tool [5][7] - Paulson's successful shorting of the subprime mortgage market during the 2008 crisis led to significant profits, establishing him as a prominent figure in hedge fund management [8] - Following his success, Paulson began investing heavily in gold, believing it to be the best hedge against economic instability and inflation [8] Group 3: Current Trends and Innovations in Gold Investment - Ray Dalio, another influential hedge fund manager, has also advocated for gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic crises, emphasizing its role in wealth preservation [9][10] - Dalio describes gold as a "purest form of wealth storage," highlighting its advantages in terms of liquidity and privacy compared to other assets [11] - The article discusses the innovation of gold ETFs, which have made gold investment more accessible to the general public, allowing for low-cost entry and ease of trading [13][16] Group 4: Growth of Gold ETFs - The Huashan Gold ETF, launched in 2013, has grown significantly from an initial size of under 200 million to over 60 billion by 2025, reflecting increasing investor interest [19] - The article notes the importance of educational initiatives to promote gold investment, with extensive outreach conducted by the ETF's management team [18] - The growth trajectory of the Huashan Gold ETF illustrates the evolving landscape of gold investment in China, aligning with global trends of seeking safe-haven assets [19][22]

导语："投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目，希望通过每周日不定期的推送，让更多人看到 基金经理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主，不带有基金产品的 代码和信息，也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。 也欢迎大家给我们投稿：azhu830 yeah.net！ 下面，我们分享来自鹏华基金的最新6月思考。 中美贸易摩擦仍在持续中，预计下半年政策将成 为影响资本市场的关键因素，同时A股整体仍处于偏低位置，未来存在进一步上行空间。而债市 则多空因素交织，或延续中性震荡走势。展望6月，主动权益、固定收益、量化指数以及多元资 产领域分别有哪些挑战与机遇值得特别关注，一起来看看本期鹏华基本面投资专家们的深度思 考。 主动权益 袁航 鹏华基金权益投资一部副总经理 展望2025-2026年的市场，我们判断仍存在进一步上行空间，机遇总体大于风险，我们倾向以积 极的心态去应对2025-2026年的股票市场。股票估值虽然较底部有所攀升，但整体仍处于偏低位 置。未来若出现业绩基本面的显著变化，估值将成为股价上涨更为坚实有力的支撑。 展望2025-2026年的市场，我们判断仍存在进一步的上行空间，机遇总体大于风险，我们 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy and strategies of Tian Junwei, a prominent fund manager at Bosera Fund, emphasizing his unique GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) investment approach and his ability to generate consistent absolute returns in the public fund sector [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Tian Junwei employs a GARP investment framework, focusing on buying growth stocks at reasonable valuations, which involves assessing both the quality and speed of growth [4][6]. - His investment style is characterized by a "middle-ground" approach, balancing between growth and value investing, and he emphasizes the importance of understanding different business models and their sustainability [3][4]. - The core of his strategy is to identify high-quality growth companies that are either in a significant industry growth trend or possess strong competitive advantages [6][7]. Group 2: Portfolio Management - Tian has developed a benchmark-oriented mindset in portfolio management, recognizing that a combination of standard and self-selected actions is essential for achieving sustained excess returns [8][16]. - He believes that excessive deviation from performance benchmarks can amplify both positive and negative market conditions, which is detrimental to achieving good excess returns [8][16]. - The primary source of Tian's excess returns is individual stock selection, as he is known for his ability to identify mispriced investment opportunities through extensive research [8][9][56]. Group 3: Stock Selection Process - Tian's stock selection process involves a dual approach: filtering stocks through financial reports and narrowing down choices based on industry trends [28][29]. - He emphasizes the importance of understanding industry trends to improve stock selection efficiency and success rates, aiming for a balanced portfolio that includes both high-potential "grey horses" and more established companies [29][55]. - His investment philosophy includes a focus on left-side buying, which requires a strong conviction in growth potential that differs from market consensus [31][32]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Tian identifies three promising investment directions: industrial digital transformation, industry safety and self-sufficiency, and emerging and future industries, particularly within the technology sector [57][59]. - He believes that these areas, while not necessarily short-term hot topics, will provide significant investment opportunities over the long term [60].