Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of the "Genesis Mission," a national-level AI development plan initiated by President Trump, which aims to elevate AI technology to a core national strategy, marking a significant shift in U.S. policy towards technology and governance [1]. Group 1: Genesis Mission and Its Implications - The "Genesis Mission" is described as a monumental blueprint comparable to the Manhattan Project, focusing on breaking through AI technology barriers and consolidating global leadership [1]. - The initiative represents a comprehensive mobilization of government, businesses, and research institutions towards AI development, indicating a shift from industry competition to national strategic focus [1]. Group 2: Key Figures and Their Influence - Influential figures behind the initiative include Silicon Valley elites such as Peter Thiel, Alexander Karp, Elon Musk, and David Sacks, who advocate for a government restructured through engineering thinking and hard technology [1][5]. - Peter Thiel, a co-founder of PayPal, has significantly influenced the political landscape by supporting candidates like J.D. Vance, demonstrating a shift in political power dynamics towards technology capital [5][6]. Group 3: Political and Financial Dynamics - Trump's political fundraising has shifted, with small donations decreasing from 69% in 2016 to 32.9% in 2024, indicating increased support from Silicon Valley tech capital [4]. - The article highlights a growing alliance between technology companies and the government, where tech firms gain defense contracts and policy benefits while Trump secures funding and technological endorsement [9]. Group 4: Ideological Shifts in Technology - The rise of "technological accelerationism" in Silicon Valley is reshaping U.S. political dynamics, advocating for rapid technological advancement as a solution to societal issues [11][12]. - This ideology promotes the belief that technological breakthroughs can automatically resolve political challenges, simplifying complex social issues into engineering problems [16][17]. Group 5: Future Vision and Challenges - Alexander Karp envisions a future where the U.S. is a "Republic" supported by hard technology, emphasizing the need for a clear national mission and technological ambition [19]. - The article warns of the hesitance among the new generation of engineers to engage in military applications, highlighting a cultural divide that could impact national defense capabilities [23].

Core Viewpoint - Haier Smart Home's decision to sell 49% of its stake in its Indian subsidiary to Warburg Pincus and Bharti Group is a strategic move to mitigate risks and enhance operational efficiency in the current international environment [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Environment in India - India's foreign direct investment (FDI) has faced challenges, with net FDI dropping to -$616 million by August 2025, indicating a capital outflow [3]. - The Indian government has implemented stricter approval processes for investments from neighboring countries since 2020, increasing uncertainty for foreign companies, particularly Chinese firms [3]. - High-profile cases, such as Xiaomi being fined ₹4.8 billion and investigations into OPPO and Vivo, highlight the risks foreign companies face in India [3]. Group 2: Strategic Benefits of Haier's Move - The sale allows Haier to recover historical investments, as its Indian operations have seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% over the past seven years, positioning it as a leader in the industry [5]. - The involvement of Warburg Pincus and Bharti Group, both reputable financial investors, is expected to enhance Haier's operational prospects in India, providing local market insights and resources [5][6]. - The Indian home appliance market is projected to grow from $77.74 billion in 2024 to $135.33 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 5.70%, making it one of the fastest-growing markets globally [5]. Group 3: Risk Mitigation - By introducing local capital, Haier can better navigate geopolitical risks and regulatory challenges in India, effectively distributing risks related to policies, laws, and taxes [6]. - This strategic partnership serves as a form of "insurance" for Haier's assets in a complex international landscape [6]. - The move is characterized as a strategic advancement rather than a retreat, allowing Haier to recover costs, integrate local resources, and mitigate political risks simultaneously [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversification in asset allocation as a means to achieve higher returns without taking on additional risk, highlighting the concept of "free lunch" in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Multi-Asset Strategies - In the current low-interest-rate environment, investors are seeking alternatives to traditional bank products, leading to the rise of low-volatility multi-asset Funds of Funds (FOFs) [2][3]. - Multi-asset FOFs incorporate a variety of low-correlation assets, aiming to optimize risk-return characteristics while controlling maximum drawdown [2][3]. - The article suggests that multi-asset FOFs are among the closest tools to achieving the ideal balance of risk and return, which is perceived as the "free lunch" in investing [2]. Group 2: Investment Goals and Product Features - For low-risk investors, traditional stock-bond allocations do not meet all their needs, as they prioritize limiting maximum drawdown to -1.5% and achieving positive returns within a few months [3]. - The upcoming Wanjiatai Stable Three-Month Holding Period FOF expands asset categories beyond just stocks and bonds to include low-volatility dividends, bonds, S&P 500, and gold, enhancing the risk-return profile [3][4]. - Historical data shows that over the past 10 years, the annualized returns for low-volatility dividends, S&P 500, and gold were 9.08%, 12.91%, and 16.36% respectively [3]. Group 3: Market Acceptance and Growth - The multi-asset strategy is gaining acceptance in the market, with 64% of low-volatility FOFs adopting this approach as of November 30, 2025 [4]. - The total scale of public FOFs surpassed 233.9 billion yuan, with an increase of over 100 billion yuan in the year [4]. Group 4: Manager Selection and Research - The effectiveness of multi-asset strategies relies on the active management capabilities of fund managers, emphasizing the importance of selecting the right underlying managers to realize returns [6][7]. - A systematic approach to selecting fund managers involves evaluating their investment philosophy, process, diligence, and performance [8]. - The Wanjiatai FOF team employs a research-driven model that integrates both fund manager research and fundamental analysis, ensuring comprehensive coverage of investment opportunities [11][12]. Group 5: Team Structure and Collaboration - The Wanjiatai FOF team is characterized by a dual focus on fund manager research and fundamental analysis, with team members responsible for both micro and macro-level research [12][13]. - The team has developed a robust internal research system that allows for efficient sharing of insights and data, enhancing decision-making capabilities [12][13]. - The collaboration between team members, such as the joint management of the Wanjiatai FOF by Ren Zheng and He Jiayi, aims to leverage their respective strengths in strategy and asset selection [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying logic of quantitative investment models to achieve stable excess returns in varying market environments [3][5][6]. Group 1: Evolution of Quantitative Investment - The article discusses the evolution of hedge funds, highlighting a shift towards quantitative investment as the primary method for generating alpha in the market [3]. - In China, quantitative investment is rapidly rising, with the E Fund's quantitative team integrating centralized and platform models to create a suitable development path [3][10]. - The E Fund's quantitative team has established a standardized workflow for data processing, enhancing efficiency across various stages of investment [5][25]. Group 2: Team Structure and Methodology - The E Fund's quantitative team is divided into factor groups and industry groups, focusing on statistical and fundamental quantitative models respectively, allowing for both collaboration and independent research [4][22]. - The investment philosophy of the team is driven by a logic-based approach, emphasizing the need to understand the underlying assumptions of models before application [8][18]. - The team aims to provide diverse sources of alpha, including stock selection and industry/style allocation, aligning with the goals of active equity teams [11][12][23]. Group 3: Performance and Strategy - The article presents performance metrics for E Fund's quantitative products, such as the E Fund High Dividend Quantitative Selection, which achieved a net value growth rate of 15.77% since its inception, outperforming its benchmark by 12.55% [6]. - The E Fund's quantitative models adapt to different market conditions, with the effectiveness of factors varying significantly based on economic environments [27][29]. - The team employs a combination of active and quantitative strategies to enhance performance, focusing on strict control of style exposure and leveraging market-specific characteristics [34][35]. Group 4: Future of Quantitative Investment - The article highlights the increasing role of AI in quantitative investment, with E Fund leveraging technology to enhance research efficiency and data processing capabilities [37]. - The company aims to develop a product line that meets the diverse needs of retail investors, focusing on clear and stable alpha generation [42]. - The article concludes that the stability of excess returns improves with a diversified approach to alpha sources, supported by the company's long-term commitment to building competitive advantages in the quantitative space [15][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of time in investment, highlighting that the longer the investment horizon, the greater the power of compound interest. It also discusses the evolution of fund manager Gang Dengfeng, showcasing his growth and investment philosophy over the years [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Gang Dengfeng's investment framework is characterized by a focus on quality growth with a mid-level industry perspective. He aims for sustainable growth rather than short-term speculative gains, emphasizing the importance of investing in companies with strong fundamentals and management [10][14]. - The investment approach includes a low turnover rate, indicating a long holding period for stocks. For instance, the turnover rates for the fund managed by Gang Dengfeng were 66.87% in 2023, 96.65% in 2024, and 115.48% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a strategy of holding quality stocks for extended periods [11][14]. Group 2: Stock Selection Criteria - Gang Dengfeng focuses on a limited number of high-quality companies, defined by strong financial metrics such as high Return on Equity (ROE) and excellent management teams. This selective approach aims to minimize trading losses and enhance overall returns [14][16]. - The concentration of holdings has increased over time, with the top ten holdings in his fund rising from 36.40% at the end of 2023 to 58.67% by the third quarter of 2025, indicating a strategy of focusing on fewer, high-quality investments [14][16]. Group 3: Market Context and Timing - The article suggests that the current market environment is favorable for actively managed equity funds, as historical data indicates that active management tends to outperform broad market indices during periods of structural growth opportunities. For example, the active equity index returned 28.06% in 2025, significantly outperforming the 14.30% return of the CSI 300 index [22][23]. - The shift in the Chinese capital market towards shareholder returns and dividends is highlighted, with total dividends reaching nearly 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating a growing demand for equity investments among retail investors [23]. Group 4: Industry Diversification - Gang Dengfeng's portfolio is diversified across various industries, including electric vehicles, internet, consumer electronics, and industrial metals. This broad industry coverage is designed to create multiple sources of excess returns and reduce maximum drawdowns for investors [17][23]. - The article notes that the fund's maximum drawdown was -13.76% over the past year, compared to -21.04% for the CSI 300 index, demonstrating the benefits of industry diversification in mitigating risks [17][23].

导语："投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目，希望通过每周日不定期的推送，让更多人看到 基金经理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主，不带有基金产品的 代码和信息，也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。 下面，我们分享来自景顺长城基金科技军团的2026年思考。一直以来，景顺长城科技军团通过持 续深耕产业链，不断取得前沿、深度的投资洞见。他们也是买方基金公司中，少数提供持续观点 分享的投研团队，相信这一期的观点，也能帮助大家理解景顺长城科技军团的投研思考。 最后，也欢迎大家持续给我们投稿！可以发送邮件到：azhu830@yeah.net 杨锐文：预估明年市场或更为均衡 市场非常极致，AI相关的交易量大概占市场交易40%，AI与非AI冰火两重天。但是，展望明年， AI相关公司在如此大市值和较高的估值（PE或PB）上进一步上涨难度非常大。我们看好市场， 预计明年市场或更为均衡。极致行情与我们的投资风格适配性较低，我们的风格更适配均衡类市 场行情。相信过去种下的种子将会陆续结果，当前的挑战主要是过大的规模以及经济是否如我们 所愿从物价低迷走向通胀。 董晗：或迎来欧美日财政共振宽周期，科技成长或仍是重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with a sustainable economic moat that can withstand economic cycles and competition, providing long-term reliable returns for investors [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Morningstar, founded in 1984, has grown from a small office to a trusted authority in financial data and research, focusing on creating value for investors [3]. - The company's stock research is rooted in a long-term ownership perspective, avoiding short-term noise and focusing on identifying companies with sustainable competitive advantages [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Moat Analysis - Morningstar defines the economic moat as a company's ability to maintain a competitive advantage over time, which is crucial for achieving returns above the cost of capital [6]. - The analysis framework includes five identifiable sources of economic moats: 1. Intangible assets, such as brand loyalty and patents [8]. 2. Cost advantages, allowing companies to offer products at lower costs [9]. 3. Switching costs that lock customers into a company's services [10]. 4. Network effects that enhance the value of a product as more users join [11]. 5. Efficient scale, where market conditions limit the number of profitable competitors [12]. Group 3: Investment Timing and Valuation - Identifying great companies is only part of the investment success; buying them at fair or undervalued prices is essential for generating excess returns [13]. - Morningstar employs a discounted cash flow model to estimate a company's intrinsic value, requiring deep analysis of industry trends and company strategies [14]. Group 4: Risk Management and Safety Margin - Acknowledging the limitations of human predictions, Morningstar incorporates a "margin of safety" principle to protect against unforeseen risks [15]. - The company uses an uncertainty rating system to assess the difficulty and risk of future cash flow predictions, assigning different safety margin requirements based on the level of uncertainty [19]. Group 5: Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector is highlighted as an ideal area for applying the economic moat theory, with strong brands and cost advantages being key factors [21]. - Specific examples include beverage companies like Coca-Cola, which leverage brand loyalty and distribution networks, and packaged goods companies like Nestlé, which benefit from scale economies [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic trends and industry cycles over individual stock selection in investment strategies, highlighting the significant performance of gold and cyclical stocks in 2025 [3][4][5]. Group 1: Investment Performance - Gold has seen a price increase of over 60% year-to-date, marking the highest rise since 1979 [3]. - The two funds managed by Guo Yunsong, Zhongyin Stable Strategy Mixed A and Zhongyin Cycle Preferred Mixed A, achieved net value growth rates of 28.39% and 41.38% respectively over the past year, significantly outperforming their benchmarks [4]. - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the high leverage ratio of the U.S. government, has led to a decline in the value of U.S. Treasury bonds, prompting investors to turn to gold as an alternative [5][21]. Group 2: Investment Framework - Guo Yunsong's investment framework prioritizes understanding macroeconomic cycles and industry trends, likening them to seasonal changes [4][5]. - The concept of "area" (time x price) is introduced, suggesting that the duration of high prices is crucial for commodity investments [5][9]. - The focus is on structural demand growth in commodities like copper and aluminum, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand [5][24]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The article discusses the shift in commodity pricing power towards supply-side factors, indicating that even in low-demand environments, commodities can maintain pricing strength due to supply constraints [22]. - A structural differentiation within the commodity market is anticipated, with high-end manufacturing and energy-related commodities expected to perform well, while others like steel may lag [24]. - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 suggests that the Federal Reserve's continued easing will significantly impact asset prices, with a focus on microstructural changes in demand being more critical than macro totals [25].

导读：时光飞逝，即将过去的2025年注定将成为金融历史上的重要分水岭。如果说2020到2024年是疫情后经济修复与 通胀博弈的"旧常态"尾声，那么2025年则开启了全新的宏观范式。 在这一年中，我们罕见的看到以全球股市为代表的风险资产和以黄金为代表的避险资产同时出现了上涨。"地缘政治阿 尔法"（Geopolitical Alpha）取代了传统的风险溢价模型，成长资产配置的核心锚点。 特别是美国总统特朗普4月2日的关税政策引发市场短期剧烈的波动后，资金重新涌向了更具自主可控能力的资产：美国 的国防工业和AI，中国的科技和高股息红利资产，突破3000美元大关的实物黄金等。而那些依赖"旧世界"全球化分工秩 序的欧洲新能源和新兴市场中高估值的印度股市，都出现了较大调整。 在"冲突"中上涨的资本市场，带来了更多的不确定性。展望2026年，我们又该如何应对新的宏观和投资范式呢？近期， 我们阅读了全球资管巨头景顺集团（Invesco）的2026年度投资展望报告，为我们布局未来提供了一盏"明灯"。 在这份2026投资展望报告中，景顺的关键词是：韧性与再平衡 韧性体现在私营部门展现出抵御经济冲击的非凡能力，企业和家庭整体的负债 ...

作者简介： CFA，金融MBA，多年基金从业经历。2007-2017年就职兴全基金，任趋势基金经 理。2017-2024年就职浦银安盛基金，任价值投资部总经理。2024-2025年，就职国联安基金价 值投资负责人。 追溯巴菲特系统性论述通胀理论的公开文献源头，我们先要重读那篇发表于1977年《通胀如何欺 骗了股票投资者》的文章。这篇洞见深刻的奇文，堪称其通胀理论的奠基之作。 二、通胀在不同年代是如何影响投资的 1、1977年《通胀如何欺骗了股票投资者》（以下简称文章） 就经济实质上而言，股票其实很像债券。 在文章开篇的时候就表示，虽然通货膨胀率在近年来不断上升，但美国股票的资本回报率基本维 持在12%，没有太大的变化。文章十分具有创意地将股票类比为债券，认为就经济实质而言，买 股票的人和买债券的人一样。只不过，一个购买债券的投资者，得到的是固定的票息和本金。如 果把股票看成是生产的企业。一个以净资产买入股票的投资者所得到的是，一个企业所产生的 12%的收益，也就是"票息"。 股票与债券的两点不同之处 一、前言 20世纪70年代，美国深陷恶性通胀泥潭。1980年CPI同比涨幅一度突破14%。"股票天然可以防 御 ...