研究助理 苏鸿婷 邮箱：suht＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 1.《农商行买长量增流动性与机构 行为跟踪 43-》，2025.4.27 2.《保险、农商入场配长流动性与机 构行为跟踪 42-》，2025.4.21 3.《美国为何"股债汇三杀"？》， 2025.4.16 4.《债市交易观点：如何看待近期硬 数 据 较 强 和 预 期 的 分 歧 ？ 》， 2025.4.16 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 固定收益专题 深度报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 固定收益专题 证券分析师 吕品 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 5.《"巨石"之后，转债宜徐徐图之》， 2025.4.16 固定收益专题 技术看债 01：农商与保险 smart 属性的褪色？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 机构行为视角：过去的领先指标失效了吗？过去在资产荒逻辑下，农商行的逆势交 易和保险超长债配置是债券定价显著的边际资金。但从今年的情况来看，在 2 月 上旬 10 年国债利率刷新低点之后，农商行的接券买入却并未伴 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.092 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.83%, but a net profit attributable to the parent company of -0.18 billion yuan, a decline of 124.53% [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 406 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.82%, and a net profit of 32 million yuan, up 207.17% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the domestic computing power chain and is expected to benefit from the high demand for computing power [4][5] - The defense sector's demand for intelligent and integrated products is increasing, and the company continues to invest in R&D, which is likely to enhance performance [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown significant fluctuations compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 13.34% over 1 month, -23.02% over 2 months, and 47.99% over 3 months [3][4] Financial Data and Forecast - The company forecasts total revenues of 2.48 billion yuan, 3.13 billion yuan, and 3.95 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 259 million yuan, 327 million yuan, and 409 million yuan for the same years [5][7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 101.35, 80.24, and 64.10 respectively [5][7] Investment Insights - The company has made significant investments in R&D, with a research expense ratio of 10.45% in 2024, indicating a commitment to innovation [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain high growth potential due to its involvement in the defense and computing power sectors, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 41.973 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.91% year-on-year, while the total profit reached 1.835 billion yuan, an increase of 5.15% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.444 billion yuan, up 2.55% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.729 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.82%, with total profit of 608 million yuan, up 40.51% year-on-year, and net profit of 499 million yuan, up 53.09% year-on-year [5][6] - The company experienced an increase in production and prices for its main products, with total production of non-ferrous metals reaching 361,000 tons in 2024, including 84,800 tons of tin, 130,300 tons of copper, and 144,000 tons of zinc. The self-sufficiency rates for tin, copper, and zinc were 30.21%, 15.91%, and 72.72%, respectively [5] - The supply-demand dynamics for tin remain favorable, with a tightening global supply due to policy restrictions in Southeast Asia and stable demand growth driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and semiconductors [5] - The company is a leader in the tin industry, with a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% in 2024, positioning it well to benefit from ongoing industry prosperity [5] Financial Data Summary - The company’s total assets were reported at 36.803 billion yuan, with a total market capitalization of 22.827 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.88 yuan, with a net profit margin of 3.7% [6][8] - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.269 billion yuan, 2.406 billion yuan, and 2.828 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high revenue in Q2, driven by strong growth in AI and new business segments, indicating long-term potential [5] - The automotive electronics and data center sectors are significant growth drivers, with automotive-related revenue expected to reach 1.1 billion yuan in 2024, a 62.1% increase year-over-year [7] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.17 billion yuan, 8.57 billion yuan, and 10.11 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.05 billion yuan, 1.30 billion yuan, and 1.60 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 806.32 million [6] - Revenue forecast for 2024: 5.897 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 17% [8] - Net profit forecast for 2024: 832 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 29.9% [8] - Gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 36.5% [8] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 22.31 billion yuan [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.05 yuan [8]

Group 1: Dollar Credit Impact on Gold Prices - The increasing fiscal pressure and concerns over Federal Reserve independence are undermining dollar credit, accelerating gold price increases. As of April 22, 2025, gold prices surged to $3,400-$3,500 per ounce, with key ratios like gold-silver, gold-copper, and gold-oil breaking historical thresholds[6][11] - The total U.S. public debt reached $36.2 trillion by the end of March 2025, with interest payments accounting for over 13% of fiscal expenditures in 2024[6] - The market is witnessing a "triple kill" of dollar assets (stocks, bonds, and currency), leading to a flight to gold as a traditional currency anchor[6] Group 2: Risks from Stablecoin Issuance - The recent GENIUS Act passed by the U.S. Senate on March 13, 2025, is expected to boost stablecoin issuance from $230 billion to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, creating $1.6 trillion in new demand for short-term Treasury bills[3][27] - Stablecoins like USDT and USDC are becoming widely used for cross-border payments, with USDT's market cap at approximately $147 billion and USDC at around $62 billion as of April 27, 2025[14][18] - The issuance of stablecoins may counteract the current sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, potentially leading to a risk of gold price corrections as dollar credit stabilizes[27] Group 3: Signs of Shallow Recession in the U.S. - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakening, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% in March 2025 and a significant decline in consumer confidence as indicated by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index[28][29] - As of April 23, 2025, 27% of S&P 500 companies have downgraded their earnings expectations for 2025, while only 9% have raised them, indicating a bearish outlook[28] - The likelihood of a recession in Q2 2025 is increasing, driven by significant corrections in U.S. asset prices, impacting household wealth[28] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates a high probability of a 100 basis point rate cut in 2025, with the next cut expected in June, as indicated by the CME model[32][34] - The March FOMC dot plot showed a majority of committee members favoring a 50 basis point cut in 2025, suggesting a shift in monetary policy to address economic concerns[32][37] - Trump's recent statements indicate a potential easing of tensions with the Federal Reserve, which may stabilize market expectations regarding dollar credit[32] Group 5: Risk Factors - Potential risks include Trump's fluctuating statements, unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, and the U.S. economy maintaining stability, which could all impact the outlook for gold prices and dollar credit[39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.5 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 billion yuan, down 53.43% year-on-year [5] - The decline in revenue is primarily due to a decrease in special integrated circuit income, which fell by 42.57% year-on-year [5] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, with an expenditure of 1.29 billion yuan, representing 23.33% of revenue, which is an increase of 4.54 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of special informationization and the recovery of its main business, with anticipated revenue growth in the automotive chip sector [5] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.07% year-on-year [5] - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 6.33% year-on-year to 12.4 billion yuan as of December 31, 2024 [5] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.7 billion yuan, 8.3 billion yuan, and 10.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.6 billion yuan, 2.2 billion yuan, and 2.3 billion yuan [5][8] Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth in automotive electronics and the recovery of traditional consumer electronics [5] - The company has launched several new products, including the first commercial eSIM in China and automotive safety chip solutions, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [5] - The company maintains a leading position in FPGA and system-level chip products, which are anticipated to see improved performance in the current fiscal year [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company is experiencing robust growth in its AI business, with revenue from AI operations in Taiwan increasing by 135.07% year-on-year in 2024. The PLM product's contract value grew over 20% in Q1 2025 due to AI enhancements, while AIOT applications saw revenue growth exceeding 50% [6] - Internally, AI has improved operational efficiency, leading to a reduction in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios in 2024. The net profit loss, adjusted for non-recurring items, narrowed by 31.92% in Q1 2025, and marketing conversion rates improved by 54% year-on-year [6] - The company is capitalizing on the global manufacturing shift, with non-mainland revenue reaching 1.154 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.53% increase. The local teams in Southeast Asia have a localization rate exceeding 90%, driving significant revenue growth in Thailand and Vietnam [7] - The company reported steady growth in its 2024 annual report, with revenues, net profit, and adjusted net profit reaching 2.331 billion yuan, 156 million yuan, and 138 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4.62%, 3.59%, and 13.18% [8] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted downwards due to anticipated delays in downstream demand, with projected revenues of 2.677 billion yuan, 3.122 billion yuan, and 3.623 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 14.8%, 16.6%, and 16.1% [9] Financial Data Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.331 billion yuan, with a net profit of 156 million yuan, and an adjusted net profit of 138 million yuan [8] - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 2.677 billion yuan, with net profits expected to reach 205 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.4% [10] - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline from 58.3% in 2024 to 53.7% by 2027, indicating a gradual decrease in profitability margins over the forecast period [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company focuses on the research and development of metabolic drugs, with new pipeline additions including oral BGM0504 and Amylin analog BGM1812. The current strategy emphasizes developing innovative drugs with global intellectual property rights in the metabolic disease field [5][17]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.283 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.74% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 189 million yuan, a decrease of 6.57% [5]. - The company expects revenues of 1.444 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.6%, and net profits of 253 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 33.7% [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a relative increase compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 11.71% over 1 month, 17.10% over 2 months, and 48.00% over 3 months [4]. Financial Data - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 58.62%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. The R&D expenses for 2024 were 297 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, reflecting the company's commitment to a "R&D-driven" strategy [5][6]. Product Pipeline - The company is advancing its innovative drug development, with BGM0504 injection for type 2 diabetes and weight loss currently in phase III clinical trials in China, and the oral formulation BGM0504 is in preclinical stages [5][9][17]. - BGM1812, an Amylin analog, is also in the pipeline, targeting metabolic diseases and expected to complement GLP-1 drugs for enhanced weight loss effects [17][18]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 1.641 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.889 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 297 million yuan and 363 million yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in collaborative management software, focusing on innovation and providing high-quality products for over 20 years. It has established a strong market presence with a 25.7% market share in China's enterprise team collaboration software market as of the first half of 2023 [5][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in domestic innovation (信创) and AI integration, which are anticipated to enhance growth potential in the collaborative management software sector [5][37]. - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 2.607 billion, 2.896 billion, and 3.207 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 283 million, 354 million, and 431 million yuan for the same years [5][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Collaborative Management Software Leader - The company has focused on collaborative management for over 20 years, gradually becoming an industry leader. It serves over 80,000 clients across 87 different sectors and has established more than 200 branches nationwide [5][9]. - The founder and management team have long tenures, ensuring stability and continuity in leadership [12]. - The company has a strong cash flow, with operating cash flow consistently around 110% of revenue, which supports sustainable growth [25]. 2. Industry Competitive Landscape - The collaborative management software industry is fragmented, with a low market concentration. The company, as a comprehensive leader, is well-positioned to capture market share as competition intensifies [27][33]. - The domestic innovation policy is expected to drive demand for domestic OA software, with projections indicating a market size of 319 billion yuan by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 20.61% from 2023 to 2027 [37][47]. 3. Product and Channel Transformation - The company has developed a modular product system that meets diverse business needs and has launched numerous specialized products to enhance revenue potential [5][9]. - The unique EBU mechanism has contributed to maintaining high gross margins, with software product margins at 99.26% and service margins at 94.30% in 2024 [22]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a PE ratio of 61.0, 48.8, and 40.1 for those years based on the stock price as of April 25, 2025 [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company focuses on the research and development of metabolic drugs, with new pipeline additions including oral BGM0504 and Amylin analog BGM1812 [5] - The company reported a revenue of 1.283 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.74%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 189 million yuan, a decrease of 6.57% [5] - The company expects revenue growth of 12.6%, 13.7%, and 15.1% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 33.7%, 17.6%, and 22.0% during the same period [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 58.62%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The R&D expenses for 2024 were 297 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, reflecting the company's commitment to a "R&D-driven" strategy [5] - The company’s total assets were reported at 5.285 billion yuan, with a total market value of approximately 18.576 billion yuan [6] Market Comparison - The company’s stock performance showed an absolute increase of 11.71% over one month, 17.10% over two months, and 48.00% over three months [4] - Compared to the CSI 300 index, the company outperformed with a relative increase of 15.09%, 21.46%, and 49.19% over the same periods [4] Research and Development Focus - The company is developing BGM0504, an oral formulation that aims to overcome the challenges of oral peptide delivery, which has high technical barriers globally [9][10] - BGM1812, an Amylin analog, is positioned to complement GLP-1 drugs in weight management and blood sugar control [17] - The company is advancing its clinical trials for BGM0504, with both Type 2 diabetes and weight loss indications progressing as planned [5]