Quantitative Models and Factor Construction Factor Names and Construction - **Factor Name: EPTTM One-Year Percentile** - **Construction Idea**: Measures the percentile rank of the earnings-to-price ratio (EPTTM) over the past year to capture valuation trends[6][17] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the earnings-to-price ratio (EPTTM) for each stock - Determine the percentile rank of the current EPTTM relative to its distribution over the past year[17] - **Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong performance in certain indices like CSI 1000 and CSI All Share, indicating its effectiveness in capturing valuation signals[6][33][47] - **Factor Name: Pre-Expected PEG** - **Construction Idea**: Combines price-to-earnings ratio with expected growth rates to evaluate valuation adjusted for growth[17] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) - Divide PE by the expected growth rate of earnings to derive the PEG ratio - Use analyst consensus forecasts for expected growth rates[17] - **Evaluation**: Exhibited strong performance in indices like CSI 800 and CSI 500, suggesting its utility in growth-adjusted valuation analysis[6][29][33] - **Factor Name: Six-Month UMR** - **Construction Idea**: Captures momentum adjusted for risk over a six-month window[17] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the cumulative return over the past six months - Adjust for risk using a volatility or beta-based measure - Normalize the adjusted return to derive the UMR score[17] - **Evaluation**: Consistently effective across multiple indices, including CSI 500 and CSI 1000, highlighting its robustness in momentum strategies[6][25][33] - **Factor Name: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE)** - **Construction Idea**: Measures the deviation of actual earnings from analyst expectations, standardized by the forecast error[17] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the difference between actual and expected earnings - Standardize this difference using the standard deviation of forecast errors - Derive the SUE score for each stock[17] - **Evaluation**: Effective in identifying earnings surprises, with strong performance in CSI 500 and CSI All Share indices[6][25][47] Factor Backtesting Results - **EPTTM One-Year Percentile** - CSI 1000: Weekly return of 1.09%, monthly return of 0.83%, annualized return of 5.54%[6][33] - CSI All Share: Weekly return of 1.09%, monthly return of -0.34%, annualized return of -4.16%[6][47] - **Pre-Expected PEG** - CSI 800: Weekly return of 0.66%, monthly return of 2.66%, annualized return of 3.11%[6][29] - CSI 500: Weekly return of 0.27%, monthly return of 1.02%, annualized return of -1.79%[6][25] - **Six-Month UMR** - CSI 500: Weekly return of 0.76%, monthly return of 1.14%, annualized return of -3.98%[6][25] - CSI 1000: Weekly return of 0.32%, monthly return of 0.08%, annualized return of 2.58%[6][33] - **Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE)** - CSI 500: Weekly return of 0.55%, monthly return of -0.06%, annualized return of 1.46%[6][25] - CSI All Share: Weekly return of 0.32%, monthly return of -0.46%, annualized return of -4.36%[6][47] MFE Portfolio Construction - **Model Description**: Maximized Factor Exposure (MFE) portfolios are constructed to maximize exposure to a single factor while controlling for constraints such as industry and style exposures, stock weight limits, and turnover[61][62] - **Optimization Formula**: $$ \begin{array}{ll} \max & f^{T}w \\ \text{s.t.} & s_{l} \leq X(w-w_{b}) \leq s_{h} \\ & h_{l} \leq H(w-w_{b}) \leq h_{h} \\ & w_{l} \leq w-w_{b} \leq w_{h} \\ & b_{l} \leq B_{b}w \leq b_{h} \\ & 0 \leq w \leq l \\ & 1^{T}w = 1 \\ & \Sigma|w-w_{0}| \leq to_{h} \end{array} $$ - **Explanation**: The objective function maximizes factor exposure, subject to constraints on style, industry, stock weights, and turnover[61][62] - **Evaluation**: Effective in isolating factor performance under realistic portfolio constraints, providing a robust framework for factor validation[61][65]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.60 CNY based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [2][6]. Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to maintain steady growth due to the full production of the Guangxi base, falling coal prices, and industry recovery [2][9]. - The Guangxi integrated base is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's competitive edge and profitability stability upon full operation [9][39]. - The company is entering a new phase of value re-evaluation driven by improved market focus and asset injection opportunities [9][49]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.43 CNY in 2025 and 0.60 CNY in 2026 and 2027 [2]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 40,856 million CNY in 2023 to 47,969 million CNY in 2027, with a slight decline in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 861 million CNY in 2023 to 1,283 million CNY in 2027 [4]. Company Overview - The company has developed a diversified chemical business with operations in coal chemical, carbon three, tires, and chemical services across multiple bases in China and Thailand [9][12]. - The Guangxi base, covering approximately 8,000 acres with a total planned investment of about 90 billion CNY, is a key asset for the company [39][40]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The Guangxi base is strategically located near key resource import areas, providing a competitive pricing advantage for its products in the southern market compared to the eastern market [45][46]. - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of its coal chemical, carbon three, and chlorine-alkali businesses, enhancing operational efficiency and product offerings [39][41].

计算机行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 香港《稳定币条例》正式成为法例，行业 生态加速构建 核心观点 事件： 2025 年 5 月 21 日，香港立法会正式通过《稳定币条例草案》（以下简称《草 案》），为稳定币提供了完整的监管框架；5 月 30 日，香港特别行政区政府在宪报刊 登《稳定币条例》，这意味着《稳定币条例》正式成为法例。 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为，香港通过《稳定币条例》并正式成为法例，将对稳定币相关产业链公司 带来更多的投资者关注和未来业务发展机遇，建议关注有望参与其中的数字技术提供 者、支付服务商及积极探索现实世界资产代币化(RWA)的企业。 支付领域，建议关注新大陆(000997，未评级)、新国都(300130，未评级)、拉卡拉 (300773，未评级)。 数字技术领域，建议关注京北方(002987，未评级)、四方精创(300468，未评级)、宇 信科技(300674，未评级)、神州信息(000555，增持)、天阳科技(300872，未评级)。 RWA 相关企业，建议关注朗新集团(300682，买入)。 风险提示 稳定币行业发展不及预期；行业竞争过于激烈风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 计算机行业 ...

报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 02 日 | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | | | 邱蕊 | 021-63325888*5091 | | ⚫ | 基金市场热点跟踪：1.多只信用债 ETF 纳入回购质押库申请获批：5 月 29 日晚间， | | qiurui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 信用债 ETF 博时（159396）、上证公司债 ETF(511070）、公司债 ETF（511030） | | 执业证书编号：S0860519020001 | | | 等多只信用债 ETF 纳入回购质押库申请已收到中登审批函。据悉，日前中国结算发 | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW115 | | | 布《关于信用债券交易型开放式指数基金产品试点开展通用质押式回购业务有关事 | 陶文启 | taowenqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080003 | 卡 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 25.6 CNY, maintaining the current rating [2][4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing robust growth in performance, driven by globalization and new product launches. The revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 5.063 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [2][10]. - The company has successfully implemented a global strategy, with overseas revenue growing by 27.45% in 2024, accounting for 27.54% of total revenue [10]. - The injection molding machine sector is seeing a recovery, with revenue from this segment reaching 3.555 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 4.096 billion CNY - 2024: 5.063 billion CNY (23.6% growth) - 2025: 5.847 billion CNY (15.5% growth) - 2026: 6.705 billion CNY (14.7% growth) - 2027: 7.741 billion CNY (15.4% growth) [6][12] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 477 million CNY - 2024: 608 million CNY (27.4% growth) - 2025: 751 million CNY (23.6% growth) - 2026: 907 million CNY (20.7% growth) - 2027: 1.101 billion CNY (21.4% growth) [6][12] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: Expected to improve from 31.5% in 2023 to 33.2% in 2027 - Net Margin: Expected to increase from 11.6% in 2023 to 14.2% in 2027 [6][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 1.02 CNY - 2024: 1.30 CNY - 2025: 1.60 CNY - 2026: 1.93 CNY - 2027: 2.35 CNY [6][12]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of May 29, 2025, is 20.84 CNY, with a 52-week high of 28.91 CNY and a low of 16.28 CNY [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 25.6 CNY, maintaining the current rating [2][4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing robust growth in performance, driven by globalization and new product launches. The revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 5.063 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [2][10]. - The company has successfully implemented a global strategy, with overseas revenue growing by 27.45% in 2024, accounting for 27.54% of total revenue [10]. - The injection molding machine sector is seeing a recovery, with revenue from this segment reaching 3.555 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (CNY million): - 2023A: 4,096 - 2024A: 5,063 (23.6% YoY growth) - 2025E: 5,847 (15.5% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,705 (14.7% YoY growth) - 2027E: 7,741 (15.4% YoY growth) [6][12] - Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company (CNY million): - 2023A: 477 - 2024A: 608 (27.4% YoY growth) - 2025E: 751 (23.6% YoY growth) - 2026E: 907 (20.7% YoY growth) - 2027E: 1,101 (21.4% YoY growth) [6][12] - Gross Margin (%): - 2023A: 31.5% - 2024A: 31.9% - 2025E: 32.5% - 2026E: 32.9% - 2027E: 33.2% [6][12] - Net Margin (%): - 2023A: 11.6% - 2024A: 12.0% - 2025E: 12.8% - 2026E: 13.5% - 2027E: 14.2% [6][12] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of May 29, 2025, is 20.84 CNY, with a 52-week high of 28.91 CNY and a low of 16.28 CNY [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the media industry in China [5] Core Insights - The short drama sector is experiencing significant growth globally, with opportunities for small and medium enterprises to establish a strong presence overseas [3][10] - The domestic market is dominated by the "Red Fruit" platform, which has seen a dramatic increase in user engagement and advertising revenue, surpassing traditional long-video platforms [8][31] - The competition landscape is shifting, with traditional long-video platforms adapting to include short dramas to retain users and counter the rise of independent short drama apps [13][37] Summary by Sections Domestic Market - The short drama app usage time increased by 442% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [17] - The regulatory changes in 2024 allowed more platforms to gain self-review permissions, leading to a surge in short drama content availability [20][21] - The advertising revenue per user (ARPU) for short drama platforms like "Red Fruit" has reached 29 yuan per month, exceeding that of long-video platforms [31][32] Overseas Market - The overseas market presents a favorable environment for small and medium enterprises, with a balanced risk-reward scenario for short drama platforms [10][12] - Companies like "Maple Leaf Interactive" and "Drama Box" are positioned to become leading players in the overseas short drama market [12] - The report highlights that the competition from ByteDance's Melolo in Southeast Asia has not yet matched the growth of established platforms, indicating potential for smaller companies to thrive [10][12] Investment Recommendations - For the overseas market, the report suggests focusing on companies like "Chinese Online," "Kunlun Wanwei," and "Zhangyue Technology" due to their potential to become market leaders [3][12] - In the domestic market, traditional platforms like "Mango Super Media" are recommended for their stable user base and potential for growth in short drama offerings [13][37] - The report anticipates that the profitability of production companies will improve in the short term due to increased revenue sharing from platforms competing for exclusive content [3][13]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The report predicts earnings per share of 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3,634 million CNY, 4,288 million CNY, and 5,410 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 18.0%, and 26.2% respectively [4]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 1,091 million CNY, 1,353 million CNY, and 1,774 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 18.1%, 24.1%, and 31.1% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 847 million CNY, 1,051 million CNY, and 1,402 million CNY, with growth rates of 17.8%, 24.0%, and 33.5% respectively [4]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 66.7% in 2023 to 72.9% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 23.3% to 25.9% during the same period [4]. Market Potential - The whiskey market in China is currently underdeveloped, with only 0.8% of the total liquor market share, indicating significant growth potential as domestic brands gain traction [13][20]. - The report highlights that the domestic whiskey market is expected to grow from 55 billion CNY in 2023 to approximately 83 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [39][42]. - The company aims to leverage its experience in the ready-to-drink segment to replicate its success in the whiskey market, focusing on consumer education and strategic marketing [8][36]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a whiskey matrix with its brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing imported products to cater to Chinese consumer preferences, which has been a successful strategy in other markets [43][44]. - The company is targeting the mass market with affordable pricing strategies, which is crucial for penetrating the whiskey market in China [57].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 36.18 CNY, reflecting a reasonable valuation level of 27 times the earnings per share for 2027 [4][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a second growth curve, driven by its dual attributes in beverages and small category wines, particularly in the whiskey market, which is still in its early stages in China [2][3]. - The whiskey market in China has significant growth potential, with the current market size being only 55 billion CNY, representing a mere 0.8% of the total liquor market [13][20]. - The company has successfully localized imported products, as evidenced by its previous success in the ready-to-drink (RTD) segment, and aims to replicate this success in the whiskey market [8][36]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 is 0.81 CNY, 1.00 CNY, and 1.34 CNY respectively, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% in 2025, 18.0% in 2026, and 26.2% in 2027 [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 3,634 million CNY in 2025, 4,288 million CNY in 2026, and 5,410 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4]. Market Analysis - The whiskey segment is projected to grow significantly, with the potential for domestic brands to capture a larger market share, aiming for a 50% domestic market penetration by leveraging local production and unique flavor profiles [37][39]. - The report highlights that the company’s whiskey products are positioned in the mass market price range, which is crucial for stimulating initial consumer interest and expanding market share [57][58]. Strategic Positioning - The company is building a liquor matrix with its whiskey brands, including Baileys and Laizhou, to establish itself as a leader in the domestic whiskey market [33]. - The marketing strategy focuses on experiential marketing and collaboration with local distributors to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [34][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.24 CNY, reflecting a reasonable market value of 163.33 billion CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has narrowed its losses, with a notable performance in commercialization expected. The 2024 revenue is projected at 1.69 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year, while the net loss attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.40 billion CNY, a reduction of 15.4% year-on-year [9]. - The approval of the drug Gexosrese for commercialization is anticipated to drive growth, with 2025 being the first full year of commercialization for Gexosrese, alongside the inclusion of another drug in the National Medical Insurance Directory [9]. - The clinical pipeline is progressing well, with positive data from the TYK2 inhibitor trials, indicating a strong potential for future revenue generation [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 141 million CNY in 2025, 323 million CNY in 2026, and 525 million CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of -16.5%, 129.3%, and 62.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -346 million CNY in 2025, -377 million CNY in 2026, and -290 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a trend of narrowing losses [4]. - The gross margin is expected to remain high, with projections of 100.0% in 2025, 98.9% in 2026, and 98.0% in 2027 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis, indicating an enterprise value of 14.65 billion CNY and an equity value of 16.33 billion CNY, leading to a per-share value of 28.24 CNY [10]. - The report also includes a sensitivity analysis for the target price based on varying perpetual growth rates and WACC [10].