[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月10日 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [安徽合力（ Table_NewTitle] 600761）：全年销量增速高 于行业，国际化实现新跨越 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 风险提示：国际贸易风险；行业竞争风险；技术迭代与全球化进程不及预期风险。 | 盈利预测与估值简表 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 17,325.42 | 18,394.61 | 20,254.42 | 21,898.78 | | 同比增长率（%） | 0.99% | 6.17% | 10.11% | 8.12% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,319.63 | 1,383.99 | 1,542.12 | 1,677.84 | | 同比增长率（%） | 0.18% | 4.88% | 11.43% | 8.80% | | EPS 摊薄（元） | 1.4 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月10日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250410 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 | 1.1. PPS，性价比突出的"塑料黄金"——化工系列研究（二十四） | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.2. 关税政策引发油价波动，关注自主可控石化链标的——原油及聚酯产业链月 | | | 报（2025 4 月） 年 | 4 | | 1.3. 常熟银行（601128）：负债成本管控强化，资产质量管理审慎——公司简评报 | | | 告 | 4 | | 2. 财经新闻 | 5 | | 3. A 股市场评述 | 7 | | 4. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong control over liability costs and prudent asset quality management by the company [1] - The company reported a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q4 2024, the total asset size reached 366.582 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77%, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The report indicates a significant increase in the company's efforts to write off non-performing loans, with 1.740 billion yuan written off in the second half of 2024 compared to 968 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.71% for the year, a decrease of 15 basis points year-on-year [2] - The NPL coverage ratio stood at 500.51%, down 27.89 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][7] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.585 billion yuan, 12.609 billion yuan, and 13.857 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.320 billion yuan, 4.782 billion yuan, and 5.268 billion yuan [7][8] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the NPL ratio at 0.77% as of Q4 2024, and the report notes a marginal improvement in forward-looking indicators, signaling a slowdown in risk [3][4] - The report emphasizes the company's proactive approach in managing asset quality, particularly in the retail loan segment, where the NPL ratio has shown signs of pressure due to macroeconomic conditions [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to benefit from a broad market space in the small and micro retail sector, leveraging its regional advantages and a combination of technology and support services [7] - The report suggests that the company's high proportion of regular deposits and strong cost control measures will allow it to better navigate the current market environment [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong control over liability costs and prudent asset quality management by the company [1] - The company reported a revenue of 10.909 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year [2] - As of the end of Q4 2024, the total asset size was 366.582 billion yuan, an increase of 9.61% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77%, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with the NPL ratio at 0.77% as of Q4 2024, unchanged from Q3 2024. Retail and corporate loan NPL ratios were 0.94% and 0.65%, respectively [3] - The report indicates that the company has increased its efforts in non-performing loan recovery and write-offs, with 1.740 billion yuan of non-performing loans written off in the second half of 2024, compared to 0.968 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Individual loan growth has been weak, consistent with industry trends, while deposit growth remains strong. The company’s deposit absorption continued to grow at a faster pace than the M2 growth rate [6] - The report notes that the company has adjusted its lending strategy to be more cautious in the face of rising retail loan risks, particularly in personal loans and credit cards [6] Interest Margin and Profitability - The net interest margin (NIM) has continued to narrow, with a quarterly NIM of 2.59% in Q4 2024, down from 2.67% in Q3 2024. The company has taken steps to manage deposit costs, including lowering deposit rates [6][7] - Investment income has performed well, driven by a bond bull market, with Q4 investment income and fair value changes amounting to 0.407 billion yuan, significantly higher than 0.149 billion yuan in the same period last year [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 11.585 billion yuan in 2025, 12.609 billion yuan in 2026, and 13.857 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 4.320 billion yuan, 4.782 billion yuan, and 5.268 billion yuan [8] - The report anticipates a stable performance due to a solid provisioning base and the potential for continued growth in the small and micro retail market [7][8]

[晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250409 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： [Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月09日 任晓帆S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1.清明消费稳增，旺季将至关注投资机会——清明节消费数据点评 ➢ 2.关注国产替代、内需方向——医药生物行业周报（2025/3/31-2025/4/6） ➢ 3.海尔生物（688139）：业绩逐步企稳，202 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is gradually stabilizing, and it is expected to return to a good growth trajectory in 2025 [1][5] - The life sciences segment is experiencing continuous innovation and growth, with new product categories accelerating [5] - The medical innovation segment is recovering, with strong growth in hospital automation and public health services [5] - The company has a clear advantage in its niche areas and is actively expanding new business lines, with new orders growing rapidly [5] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 2,864.04 million, with a year-on-year growth of 34.72%. In 2023, revenue decreased to 2,280.90 million, a decline of 20.36%. It is projected to increase to 2,594.89 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 13.62% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 600.79 million in 2022, down 28.90% year-on-year. It is expected to recover to 408.08 million in 2025, with a growth of 11.31% [2] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 47.99%, with a slight decline from previous years [2] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.28 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24.95 [2][5] Segment Performance - The life sciences segment generated revenue of 1,094 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.14%, driven by new product launches [5] - The medical innovation segment's revenue was 1,180 million in 2024, a decrease of 4.91%, but showing signs of recovery in automation and digital services [5] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.08 million, 4.83 million, and 5.64 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28, 1.52, and 1.77 yuan [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Bullish" outlook for the industry, indicating a potential increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 20% or more within the next six months [86]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of tariff policies on oil prices, leading to significant fluctuations and a focus on self-sufficient petrochemical chain targets [1][5]. - It predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate between $55 and $80 per barrel in 2025, with a potential average price of $70 per barrel [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated refining and chemical companies, suggesting that those with cost advantages will benefit from price recovery in the oil market [80][81]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review and Outlook - Brent crude oil maintained a volatile upward trend, closing at around $74 per barrel at the end of March 2025. The OPEC+ countries are set to gradually ease production cuts starting in April [3]. - The report anticipates a V-shaped recovery in oil prices, with a range of $55 to $80 per barrel for the year [9][10]. Commodity, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - The report notes a decrease in the U.S. dollar index, which fell by 3.16% to 104.2 in March 2025, indicating potential impacts on trade and currency stability [35]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.01% as of April 4, 2025, reflecting market expectations of economic slowdown [28]. Polyester Industry Chain - The report discusses the decline in prices across the polyester supply chain, with the naphtha-ethylene spread at $162 per ton, down $3 from the previous month [53]. - It highlights that the overall profit margin for the PX-PTA-polyester chain is approximately -136 yuan per ton, indicating a decrease in profitability [81]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated refining and chemical companies with cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., which are currently undervalued [81]. - It suggests that while short-term commodity prices may be under pressure due to trade tensions, the long-term outlook remains positive due to China's competitive advantages in the petrochemical industry [82].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月08日 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -29% -19% -9% 1% 11% 20% 30% 24-04 24-07 24-10 25-01 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [Table_NewTitle] PPS，性价比突出的"塑料黄金" ——化工系列研究（二十四） [table_main] 投资要点： 究 行 业 深 度 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 基 础 化 工 [table_invest] [table_product] ➢ 聚苯硫醚PPS综合性能优异，应用领域广泛，2023年消费占比居六类特种工程塑料之首： PPS具有优良的耐高温 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price in 2025 may show a V-shaped trend. It is under short - and medium - term pressure but is expected to rebound from the bottom in the second half of the year, with an annual fluctuation range of $55 - 80 per barrel [3]. - It is recommended to focus on petrochemical chain targets with low valuations, complete industrial chains, and integrated cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. [81]. - In the face of Trump's tariff policy, there is an increased expectation of economic growth slowdown. Interest - rate bonds' safe - haven demand rises, and the RMB exchange rate is under short - term pressure, but the risk of large - scale unilateral depreciation is controllable. It is short - term bearish on commodities but optimistic about domestic consumption recovery and self - controllable industrial chains [82]. Summary by Directory 1. Oil Price Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: In March 2025, Brent crude oil fluctuated upward and closed at around $74 per barrel at the end of the month. After Trump's tariff policy was announced in early April, the oil price dropped significantly [3]. - **Supply**: OPEC +'s additional 1.65 million barrels per day production cut agreement will be extended until the end of 2026, while the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut agreement will end at the end of April. The United States' oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will reach a record 2 million barrels per day [3]. - **Demand**: US refinery processing volume in March was at a low level, and commercial crude oil inventory was repaired but lower than the same period last year. China's crude oil consumption improved in January - February 2025, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the processing of above - scale industrial crude oil [3]. - **Prediction**: The oil price is expected to fluctuate between $55 - 80 per barrel in 2025. The supply increase by the end of this year will lead to inventory accumulation and put downward pressure on prices [3][8][9]. 2. Commodities, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rates**: As of April 4, 2025, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond was about 4.01% and declined again. The 10 - year - 2 - year US Treasury bond yield spread has basically ended the inversion, but there was an intensified inversion with the 3 - month Treasury bond in early April [28][34]. - **Exchange Rates**: In March, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, closing at 104.2, a 3.16% decline from the end of the previous month. The offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar, closing at 7.27, a 0.39% appreciation from the end of the previous month [35]. - **Inflation**: In February, the US CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The PPI increased by 3.2% year - on - year, with the smallest month - on - month increase since July last year [44]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The US 3 - month ISM manufacturing PMI index was 49.0, showing the first contraction this year [3][48]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - **Profit**: In March, the price of international crude oil continued to decline, driving down the prices of industrial chain products. The ethylene cracking spread from naphtha was $162 per ton, a $3 per ton decline from the previous month. The profit of the PX - PTA - polyester filament full industrial chain was about - 136 yuan per ton, a 39 - yuan per ton decrease from the previous month [53]. - **Supply and Demand**: The terminal textile and clothing orders were less than expected, and the inventory of polyester filament enterprises increased. The PTA industry was still in a loss state, and only leading or integrated enterprises could maintain positive cash flow [59][68]. - **Export**: From January to February 2025, the export of polyester filament increased, while the export of textile and clothing decreased [73]. 4. Conclusion and Investment Suggestions - **Petrochemical Enterprises**: Optimistic about petrochemical enterprises with low valuations, complete industrial chains, and integrated cost advantages, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Co., Ltd. [81]. - **Asset Allocation**: In terms of interest - rate bonds, the demand for safe - haven assets increases. In terms of commodities, short - term bearish due to the trade war, but the domestic petrochemical industry chain has cost - competitive advantages. In terms of equities, optimistic about domestic consumption recovery and self - controllable industrial chains [82].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stable growth in tourism during the Qingming Festival, with domestic travel reaching 126 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and tourism revenue of 57.549 billion yuan, up 6.7% [4]. - The report suggests that the tourism market is likely to continue its recovery due to increasing consumer travel willingness, favorable weather, and upcoming holidays such as Labor Day and Dragon Boat Festival [4]. - The report emphasizes the popularity of short trips and outdoor activities, with surrounding travel accounting for 40% of the market during the Qingming Festival [4]. Summary by Sections Tourism Data - During the Qingming Festival, domestic tourism saw 126 million trips, with a revenue of 57.549 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.3% and 6.7% increase respectively [4]. - Average spending per person during the three-day domestic travel was 456.74 yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the previous year [4]. Travel Trends - Short trips, flower viewing, and light outdoor activities are leading the tourism consumption trends, with nearly 50% of surrounding travel users opting for 2-3 day trips [4]. - International travel is also on the rise, with popular destinations including Japan, Indonesia, and Thailand, showing significant increases in order volumes [4]. Scenic Spots and Visitor Numbers - Notable scenic spots like Huangshan received over 95,000 visitors during the holiday, marking a 26% increase year-on-year [4]. - Shanghai welcomed 7.0027 million visitors, a 5.45% increase, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces reported significant growth in both visitor numbers and tourism revenue [4]. Movie Consumption - The box office performance during the Qingming Festival was disappointing, with total revenue of 378 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's 843 million yuan [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on OTA platforms, scenic spots, and hotels as beneficiaries of the anticipated tourism market recovery [4].