Export Data Highlights - In December 2024, exports reached $335.6 billion, marking the second highest monthly export value in history, just below December 2021's $339.7 billion[3] - Year-on-year export growth for December was 10.7%, up from 6.7% in November, indicating a rebound in export momentum[3] - The trade surplus for December hit a record high of $104.84 billion, driven by strong export performance amid relatively low import growth[3] Import Data Insights - December imports totaled $230.79 billion, reflecting a 1.0% year-on-year increase, a recovery from a decline of 3.9% in November[3] - Despite the increase, the overall import growth for 2024 was only 1.1%, suggesting persistent weakness in domestic demand[3] - Key imports showing positive trends included aircraft, data processing equipment, and rubber, indicating some recovery in specific sectors[3] Market Trends and Risks - The "export rush" phenomenon is expected to continue in the short term, influenced by the impending implementation of Trump's tariff policies[3] - External demand remains resilient, with the US and ASEAN showing notable increases in export growth, while Japan's exports declined significantly[3] - Potential risks include international geopolitical tensions and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[3]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年01月13日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250113 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1. 下游或需求复苏，看好利润空间修复——原油及聚酯产业链月报（2025年1月） ➢ 2. 价格水平仍然较低，核心通胀相对略好——国内观察：2024 年12月通胀数据 ➢ 1.中国人民银行决定阶段性暂停在公开市场买入国债 ➢ 2.国新办介绍"营造公平公正市场环境，助力经济高质量发展"有关情况 ➢ 3.何立峰出席扩消费工作推进会指出，加大力度推动扩消费工作 ➢ 4.三部门：进一步扩大政府采购支持绿色建材，促进建筑品质提升政策实施范围的通知 ➢ 5.美国公布2024年12月非农就业、薪资增速和失业率数据 正文目录 | 1. 重点推荐 ………………………………………………… ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [61]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 3.46% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.33 percentage points, ranking 29th among 31 first-level sectors [11]. - The report highlights that major liquor companies are focusing on stabilizing supply and demand, with an emphasis on quality and price balance for 2025. The market is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, particularly during the upcoming Spring Festival [4][11]. - The beer sector is anticipated to see marginal improvements in demand, with a focus on Qingdao Beer as a key player. The report suggests that the beer industry is undergoing a high-end transformation [4][11]. - The snack segment is experiencing rapid growth due to the diversification of sales channels, with expectations for strong sales during the Spring Festival [4][11]. - The dairy sector is benefiting from favorable policies and an improving supply-demand balance, with a recommendation to focus on companies that are upgrading their product structures [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Secondary Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 3.46%, with soft drinks showing a positive increase of 5.96% [11]. - Top-performing stocks included Qinghai Spring (+13.22%), Dongpeng Beverage (+12.40%), and others, while the worst performers included Jialong Co. (-22.86%) and Lianhua Health (-20.39%) [11]. 2. Major Consumer Goods and Raw Material Prices - Liquor prices showed slight fluctuations, with the price of Moutai increasing slightly to 2,220 yuan for scattered bottles, while the price for the original box remained stable at 2,240 yuan [23]. - Beer production in November reached 1.695 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, while wine production saw a significant decline of 33.3% [28]. - Dairy prices as of January 3, 2025, indicated a slight increase in milk and yogurt prices, while fresh milk prices showed a year-on-year decrease of 14.80% [32]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 1% decline in the German brewing industry, with expectations for 2024 to mirror 2023's performance [57]. - China has become the third-largest beer supplier to Russia, with a 60% increase in exports to 29,800 tons in the first ten months of 2024 [57]. 4. Core Company Dynamics - Beimei announced a new employee stock ownership plan aiming to raise up to 25 million yuan [58]. - Jinhui Wine's major shareholder has increased its stake in the company, acquiring 50,200 shares for approximately 905,200 yuan [58].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in the performance of brokerage firms, with notable profit forecasts from Dongxing Securities and Guoyuan Securities, projecting increases of 77%-107% and 22% in net profit, respectively, driven by substantial growth in investment performance and asset management [4][12]. - The establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for predetermined interest rates is expected to enhance the value of the insurance sector by improving liability costs, with the current research value set at 2.34% [4][34]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing reforms in the capital market, which are anticipated to boost market activity and stability, thereby increasing the attractiveness of the capital market [4][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The non-bank financial index fell by 2.4%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.3 percentage points, with the brokerage and insurance indices also experiencing declines of 2.22% and 2.76%, respectively [4][12]. 2. Market Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 13,505 billion, a decrease of 13.6% week-on-week. The margin financing balance was 1.82 trillion, down 1.1% from the previous week [4][22]. 3. Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on market-oriented reforms to enhance the capital market's investment and financing capabilities, with a commitment to deepening reforms and increasing market openness [34]. - A new notification was issued regarding the establishment of a mechanism linking predetermined interest rates to market rates, which is expected to guide companies in adjusting their insurance product pricing [34].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector has underperformed the market, with the Shenyin Wanguo Beauty and Personal Care Index declining by 2.73% this week, trailing the CSI 300 Index by 1.60 percentage points [16][17]. - Domestic brands are gaining traction, with local brands occupying 7 out of the top 20 positions in the 2024 All-Net Cosmetics Brand Ranking, showing a total GMV growth of 38.73% year-on-year [4][23]. - New product launches from international brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder are expected to drive innovation and consumer interest in the market [5][30]. Market Performance - The CSI 300 Index fell by 1.13%, while the Shenyin Wanguo Beauty and Personal Care Index dropped by 2.73%, ranking 22nd among all primary industries [16][17]. - The top five gainers in the sector this week were Jinbo Biological (+5.49%), Runben Co. (+5.32%), Lihua Kexin (+3.26%), Marubi Biological (+2.20%), and ST Meigu (+1.85%) [19]. - Conversely, the top five decliners included Furuida (-8.87%), Shuiyang Co. (-6.32%), Haoyue Care (-5.75%), Shanghai Jahwa (-5.31%), and Lafang Cosmetics (-4.66%) [19]. Industry News - The 2024 All-Net Cosmetics Brand Ranking revealed that L'Oréal remains the top brand on platforms like Taobao and JD, while Han Shu leads on Douyin [4][24]. - The introduction of innovative products such as L'Oréal's Cell BioPrint and Estée Lauder's 6D Black Diamond Eye Cream highlights the ongoing trend of personalization in beauty technology [5][30][29]. Data Tracking - In November 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,763 billion yuan, with cosmetic retail sales declining by 26.4% year-on-year due to the timing of promotional events [31]. - Cumulative cosmetic retail sales from January to November 2024 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3% [31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Standard Allocation" [1] Core Insights - The 2025 vehicle replacement policy has officially launched with increased subsidy levels, expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for subsidies, which is expected to support continued strong sales in the automotive market [5][12][56] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in December 2024 reached 2.635 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%, indicating a sustained high demand in the market [5][13] - The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles exceeded 1.5 million units in December 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 36%, highlighting the rapid growth of plug-in hybrid models [5][14] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The 2025 vehicle replacement policy includes increased subsidies for various vehicle types, with the maximum subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles set at 15,000 yuan and for fuel vehicles at 13,000 yuan [5][12] - In 2024, over 2.9 million vehicles were scrapped and over 3.7 million were replaced, indicating a robust market for vehicle upgrades [5][12] Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a 1.31% increase this week, ranking 6th among 31 industries, while the broader market (CSI 300) fell by 1.13% [5][16] - The performance of sub-sectors varied, with passenger vehicles down by 2.45%, while commercial passenger vehicles increased by 5.27% [5][16] Industry Data Tracking - December 2024 saw passenger vehicle retail sales of 2.635 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, and wholesale sales of 3.075 million units, also up 12% [5][30] - New energy vehicle retail sales reached 1.302 million units in December, a 38% increase year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 49.4% [5][32] Company Announcements - Companies like Jifeng Group and Top Group are expanding their market presence through new projects and acquisitions, indicating a strategic focus on growth in the automotive supply chain [5][54] Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued new policies to support the automotive industry, including expanded subsidies for vehicle replacements [5][56] - Collaborative efforts between companies like XPeng and Volkswagen aim to create a comprehensive fast-charging network, enhancing infrastructure for electric vehicles [5][56]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronics sector, particularly focusing on AI-related investments and the recovery of semiconductor demand [5][6]. Core Insights - NVIDIA has launched the RTX 50 series GPUs, which include significant upgrades and support for AI applications, indicating a strong focus on the AI industry chain [5][6]. - TSMC reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, with a 33.9% year-on-year revenue growth for 2024, reflecting a recovery in global semiconductor demand [5][6]. - The electronics industry is currently experiencing a mild recovery, with recommendations to focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [5][6]. Industry News - NVIDIA's RTX 50 series GPUs feature up to 920 billion transistors and AI computing power of 4000 TOPS, marking a significant advancement in GPU technology [14]. - Qualcomm introduced the Snapdragon X platform aimed at the $600 AI PC market, enhancing the accessibility of AI technologies [14]. - TSMC's December revenue reached approximately NT$278.16 billion, a 57.8% year-on-year increase, showcasing strong demand for semiconductors [15]. - Micron Technology has begun construction on a $7 billion HBM packaging facility in Singapore to meet AI demand [15]. - The Semiconductor Industry Association reported a 20.7% year-on-year increase in global semiconductor sales for November 2024 [19]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the electronics sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index rising by 1.86% while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.13% [26][27]. - As of January 10, 2025, the semiconductor sub-sector saw a 3.34% increase, while consumer electronics declined by 1.23% [27][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: 1. AIOT, with companies like Lexin Technology and Rockchip [5]. 2. AI innovation-driven sectors, including computing chips and optical devices [5]. 3. Domestic semiconductor equipment and materials, highlighting companies like Huate Gas and North Huachuang [5]. 4. Consumer electronics, with potential rebounds in companies like Weir Shares and Geke Micro [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the price level remains low, with core inflation showing slight improvement, as indicated by the December 2024 inflation data, where the CPI year-on-year was 0.1% and the PPI year-on-year was -2.3% [7][8] - The report notes that excavator sales reached 200,000 units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.13%, driven by demand from large hydropower projects and infrastructure investments [13][15] - The report emphasizes that the domestic construction machinery market is supported by government policies promoting the replacement of old equipment, which has stimulated demand for new excavators [15][17] Group 2 - The report mentions that in December 2024, excavator sales in China were 19,369 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with domestic sales growing by 22.1% [13][15] - The report indicates that the sales of loaders in December 2024 were 9,410 units, a slight decrease of 0.08% year-on-year, while exports increased by 28.5% [14][16] - The report highlights the approval of large hydropower projects, which is expected to significantly boost domestic engineering machinery demand, with total infrastructure investment projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan [16][17]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The air conditioning long-term contract orders have landed, boosting refrigerants in the fluorochemical industry. The prices of refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a increased by 7.50%, 10.53%, and 8.97% respectively compared to the end of November 2024, with R22 rising by 3.13% [8][9] - The cash ex-factory prices for long-term contracts of major air conditioning manufacturers in Q1 2025 are expected to rise, with R32 at 39,800 yuan/ton (up 6.13%) and R410 at 40,800 yuan/ton (up 11.78%). The refrigerant market is likely to maintain a positive trend in the short term [9][10] - The demand for refrigerants remains strong, supported by high production levels of household air conditioners and refrigerators, with production expected to increase significantly in February 2025 [9][10] Group 2: Investment Suggestions - The reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas and the maintenance of third-generation refrigerant production quotas at baseline levels indicate a tightening supply-demand relationship. The profitability of leading refrigerant production companies is expected to improve significantly [10] - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources [10] Group 3: Non-Banking Financial Industry Insights - The non-banking index fell by 9.9%, with brokerages and insurance indices dropping by 11.33% and 6.37% respectively. The market data showed a decrease in average daily trading volume and margin financing balance [11][12] - Recent measures by the central bank, including the expansion of swap operations and adjustments to stock repurchase policies, are expected to improve market liquidity and investor sentiment [13][14] Group 4: Economic Policies and Market Data - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to support large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods, which is expected to boost investment in related sectors [17][18] - The market performance on January 8, 2025, showed a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices declined. The overall market sentiment remains cautious with mixed signals [24][26]

Inflation Data Summary - In December 2024, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in the previous month, while the month-on-month change was 0.0%, compared to -0.6% previously[3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, an improvement from the previous decline of 2.5%, with a month-on-month change of -0.1%, slightly better than the previous 0.0%[3] Core Inflation Insights - Core CPI remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year rise to 0.4%, marking three consecutive months of growth[3] - Service prices shifted from decline to increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase to 0.5%, likely driven by increased travel demand during the New Year holiday[3] Food Price Dynamics - Food CPI fell by 0.6% month-on-month, continuing a three-month decline, which is below the five-year average of 0.64%[3] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw month-on-month declines of 2.4% and 1.0%, respectively, influenced by weather conditions and supply recovery[3] Consumer Goods and PPI Trends - Consumer goods prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, reflecting insufficient domestic demand, with alcoholic beverages also showing a decline[3] - PPI performance was slightly better than seasonal trends, with a month-on-month change of -0.1%, compared to a five-year average of -0.2%[3] Structural Analysis of PPI - Production materials remained stable month-on-month, while living materials decreased by 0.1%, with durable goods being the main drag[3] - The overall trend of PPI recovery requires additional policy support to sustain growth[3]