Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious view on the market with a focus on small-cap stocks as a preferred investment style [1][12]. Core Insights - The A-share market continued to show volatility with a contraction in trading volume, leading to a cautious sentiment in the market. The liquidity remains loose, favoring small-cap stocks, and a "dividend + small-cap" strategy is suggested for relative returns [1][12]. - Major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.76% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.38%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 experienced slight declines [1][13]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - The report covers the performance of major indices from May 12 to May 16, 2025, highlighting a mixed outcome with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.76% and the ChiNext Index up by 1.38% [1][13]. - The report notes that the liquidity environment remains favorable for small-cap stocks, which are expected to continue outperforming [1][12]. Industry Valuation - As of May 16, 2025, the report categorizes the valuation of major indices as "moderate," while the ChiNext Index is classified as "safe." Specific industries such as non-bank financials, transportation, and utilities are also rated as "safe" [1][18][19]. Fund Flow Tracking - The report indicates that institutional interest was highest in stocks like Anji Technology and Hengda, with significant net outflows from ETFs, particularly in the stock-type ETFs [3][56]. - The report highlights that southbound capital saw a net outflow of 86.85 billion HKD during the tracking period [3][56]. Volatility Analysis - The report discusses the cross-sectional volatility of major indices, noting a decrease in the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, indicating a deterioration in the short-term alpha environment [2][37]. - Time series volatility for the CSI 300 increased, suggesting an improvement in the alpha environment, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 saw declines [2][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5]. Core Insights - Aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum prices have reached new highs in nearly a month, indicating a potential upward trend in metal prices [1]. - The financing environment for small and medium enterprises has deteriorated, with the BCI index dropping to 48.03 in April 2025, a decrease of 7.24% month-on-month [1][20]. - The steel industry is expected to recover to historical profit levels due to new regulatory conditions set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [4]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -6.5 percentage points in April 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 percentage points [1][11]. - The total liabilities of the Federal Reserve were reported at $6.67 trillion, reflecting a 0.04% increase week-on-week [11]. Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices have rebounded from an eight-month low, with a week-on-week increase of 1.59% [1]. - The national steel PMI new order index was 51% in April 2025, an increase of 9.9 percentage points from the previous month [1][40]. Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires reached 78.33%, a month-on-month increase of 19.98 percentage points [2]. - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 0.57% and 3.48% respectively [2]. Sub-sectors - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached the highest level since 2011, while aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum prices have also hit recent highs [2]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum was reported at 20,230 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month increase of 3.48% [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.12%, with the steel and industrial metals sectors showing relative PB ratios of 37.68% and 60.08% respectively [4]. - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 [4]. Real Estate Completion Chain - The gross profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are currently at low levels, with flat glass margins reported at -38 yuan per ton [2][76]. - The operating rate for flat glass was stable at 75% [2]. Export Chain - The new export order PMI for China was reported at 44.70% in April 2025, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points month-on-month [3].

- The report discusses the "Momentum/Reversal Effect" factor, which has shown rapid switching in the past three weeks. This factor is used to capture short-term market trends and reversals[12] - The "Dividend + Small Cap" barbell combination is suggested as the optimal choice for achieving relative returns in the current market environment, characterized by continued liquidity[12] - The "Volume Timing" model indicates a cautious view for major broad-based indices as of May 16, 2025[24] - The "Upward Count Ratio" sentiment indicator for the CSI 300 index measures the proportion of constituent stocks with positive returns over a specified period. This indicator helps capture market sentiment and potential opportunities[25] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" uses an eight-moving average system to assess the trend status of the CSI 300 index. The indicator assigns values based on the position of the index relative to the moving averages[32] Model and Factor Construction Process - **Volume Timing Model**: The model uses trading volume data to generate timing signals for broad-based indices. As of May 16, 2025, the signals for all indices are cautious[24] - **Upward Count Ratio**: - Formula: CSI 300 Index N-day Upward Count Ratio = Number of constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days / Total number of constituent stocks[25] - The indicator is smoothed using two different window periods (N1=50, N2=35) to capture changes in sentiment. When the short-term smoothed line is above the long-term smoothed line, it indicates an upward trend and a positive market outlook[26][28] - **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator**: - Calculate the eight moving averages for the CSI 300 index with parameters 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233[32] - Assign values based on the position of the index relative to the moving averages. If the current price is above the moving averages for more than five periods, it indicates a positive market outlook[36] Model and Factor Evaluation - **Volume Timing Model**: The model is effective in capturing cautious market sentiment during periods of reduced trading volume[24] - **Upward Count Ratio**: The indicator is useful for quickly identifying upward market opportunities but may miss out on gains during sustained market exuberance. It also has limitations in predicting market downturns[25] - **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator**: The indicator provides a clear correlation between the sentiment index and the CSI 300 index's price movements, making it effective for trend analysis[32] Backtest Results - **Volume Timing Model**: All indices show a cautious signal as of May 16, 2025[24] - **Upward Count Ratio**: The indicator shows a recent increase, with the upward count ratio above 50%, indicating high market sentiment[25] - **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator**: The CSI 300 index is currently in the sentiment boom zone, suggesting a positive market outlook[32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The commercialization process of exoskeleton robots in the medical rehabilitation field is expected to accelerate, with significant growth projected in the global exoskeleton market, reaching $1.8 billion in 2024 and exceeding $12 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% [2][23]. - The report highlights the importance of policy support and the maturity of commercialization scenarios in the medical rehabilitation sector, recommending companies such as Weisi Medical, Mylande, and Xiangyu Medical for investment [2][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 1.27%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.16 percentage points and underperforming the ChiNext index by 0.35 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 sub-industries [1][16]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index increased by 0.57%, lagging behind the Hang Seng National Enterprises Index by 1.35 percentage points [1][16]. Company Updates - Recent clinical application approvals include BeiGene's BGB-B455 and ConvaTec's CM336 injection, while companies like Innovent Biologics and Kanghong Pharmaceutical are advancing in clinical trials [28]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three payment channels: in-hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments. Key recommendations include Heng Rui Medicine, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Yuyue Medical [3][25]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuation - Heng Rui Medicine: 2024 EPS of 0.99, PE of 54, rating "Accumulate" [4]. - Mindray Medical: 2024 EPS of 9.62, PE of 24, rating "Buy" [4]. - United Imaging Healthcare: 2024 EPS of 1.53, PE of 90, rating "Buy" [4]. - Yuyue Medical: 2024 EPS of 1.80, PE of 20, rating "Buy" [4]. Important Database Updates - The total number of hospital visits from January to April 2024 reached 1.483 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.29% [31]. - Basic medical insurance income for January to February 2025 was 546.4 billion yuan, with expenditures of 330.5 billion yuan [44][50].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Recent rise in US Treasury yields attributed to reduced recession risks following tariff adjustments and significant progress on tax reduction legislation, indicating potential further increases in yields [2] - April retail sales in the US showed a weak growth of 0.1% month-on-month, driven by preemptive consumer purchasing in March to avoid tariff hikes, with notable declines in categories like automobiles and apparel [3] Group 2: Market Strategy - Historical analysis suggests that a recovery in fundamentals is a core driver for bull markets, with liquidity easing and industrial trends potentially creating a favorable environment for market growth [4] - The divergence between large-cap and small-cap stocks has been observed, with small-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices, indicating a potential convergence in performance moving forward [5] Group 3: Bond Market Observations - The secondary market for REITs has shown a trend of oscillating upward, with the weighted REITs index closing at 137.87 and a weekly return of 1.7%, outperforming other major asset classes [6] - The convertible bond market has continued to recover, with the index showing a weekly increase of 0.3%, driven by positive market sentiment following favorable outcomes in US-China trade negotiations [7] Group 4: Banking Sector Analysis - Commercial banks reported a net profit of 656.8 billion in Q1 2025, with a slight decline in profit growth of 2.3% and a stable non-performing loan ratio of 1.51%, indicating overall stability in the banking sector [9] Group 5: Retail Sector Insights - The company Copper Master (H02150.HK) is the leading brand in China's copper cultural and creative products market, with projected sales of 1.6 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of 7.3% from 2019 to 2024, outperforming the overall market growth [10] Group 6: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical sector shows positive demand trends, with recommendations to focus on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the oil and gas sector, as well as those benefiting from domestic substitution trends [11] Group 7: Automotive Sector Performance - Geely Automobile (0175.HK) exceeded expectations in Q1 2025, with improved product structure and cost integration, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [12] Group 8: Telecommunications Growth - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) is positioned to benefit from the AI trend, with significant revenue growth expected from its 800G/1.6T products, leading to upward revisions in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [13] Group 9: Internet Media Sector Developments - NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) is focusing on product optimization and user experience, with potential for profit margin improvement despite a decline in social business impacting revenue growth [14] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) reported significant growth in Non-IFRS net profit, driven by strong performance in advertising and gaming, with future profit forecasts maintained [15] - Alibaba (9988.HK) achieved a revenue of 996.347 billion in FY2025, with a notable increase in net profit, while adjusting future profit forecasts slightly downward [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a gradual increase in copper prices due to improved macroeconomic expectations and potential domestic stimulus policies, alongside a decrease in supply [1][4]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, while LME copper inventory continues to decline, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [2][10]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring key indicators such as cable enterprise operating rates and air conditioning production for assessing copper demand [77][97]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9.9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5.9% [2][25]. - As of May 16, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 820,000 tons, down 9.0% from the previous week [2][49]. Supply - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2][49]. - The TC spot price as of May 16, 2025, was -43.03 USD/ton, remaining at historically low levels [3][63]. Demand - Cable enterprises' operating rate was 83.39% as of May 15, 2025, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [3][78]. - In April 2025, copper pipe production was 189,000 tons, down 1.8% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year [3][97]. Futures - As of May 16, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 3.9% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 0.8% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that copper prices are likely to rise in 2025, recommending stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining for investment [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the carbon fiber industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The demand for carbon fiber is continuously improving, with significant growth in sectors such as wind energy, sports leisure, and aerospace. The global demand for carbon fiber is projected to reach 156,100 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [2]. - Jilin Chemical Fiber has raised prices for its carbon fiber products, with 3K/6K products increasing by 5,000 CNY/ton and other grades by 3,000 CNY/ton. The average profit margin in the carbon fiber industry has improved, with an average gross profit of -870 CNY/ton as of May 15, 2025, an increase of 1,210 CNY/ton since the beginning of the year [1][2]. - The report suggests that leading manufacturers with scale and cost advantages will benefit from the stabilization of carbon fiber prices and the recovery of end-user demand in low-altitude economy and aerospace sectors [2]. Summary by Sections Carbon Fiber Demand - The wind energy sector's demand for carbon fiber is expected to reach 44,000 tons in 2024, a 120% increase year-on-year, accounting for 28.2% of total downstream demand. The sports leisure sector will demand 28,500 tons, up 51.6%, while aerospace and military applications will require 26,400 tons, a 20% increase [2]. - In China, the total demand for carbon fiber is projected to be 84,000 tons in 2024, with domestic production increasing by 27.6% to 67,600 tons [2]. Equipment Manufacturers - Domestic equipment manufacturers, such as Jinggong Technology, are expected to benefit from the rising demand for carbon fiber production equipment due to the complex manufacturing processes and the need for supply chain security [3]. - Jinggong Technology is noted as the only domestic supplier with over 50% market share in complete carbon fiber production line equipment [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the carbon fiber sector, including Jilin Chemical Fiber, Jilin Carbon Valley, Zhongfu Shenying, Shanghai Petrochemical, and Zhongjian Technology, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the market trends [2]. - Additionally, it highlights the potential of the oil service sector and domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are accelerating downward, with a focus on the demand boost during the summer electricity peak [1][4]. - As of May 16, coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim reached 32.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.57% week-on-week but an increase of 33.72% year-on-year, indicating the highest level for the same period [1][4]. - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port (5500 kcal weekly average) was 619 RMB/ton, down 19 RMB/ton (-3.05%) week-on-week [2][4]. - The summer electricity peak is approaching, and thermal coal demand is expected to seasonally rebound, necessitating attention to the extent of demand increase during the peak season [1]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 619 RMB/ton, down 19 RMB/ton (-3.05%) week-on-week [2]. - The average price of thermal mixed coal at Yulin, Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 491 RMB/ton, also down 19 RMB/ton (-3.73%) [2]. Inventory Levels - As of May 16, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.6 million tons, up 0.93% week-on-week and up 48.15% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period [4]. - The inventory at Bohai Rim ports was 32.53 million tons, down 1.57% week-on-week but up 33.72% year-on-year [4]. Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 62.1%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week and down 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 91.76%, down 0.33 percentage points week-on-week but up 3.19 percentage points year-on-year, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.447 million tons, down 0.4% week-on-week but up 3.3% year-on-year [3]. Investment Recommendations - Due to weak demand and continuous accumulation of port inventory leading to a decline in coal prices, the report suggests a defensive approach to the current sector, recommending companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profits, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company, Tong Shifu, is a leader in the copper cultural and creative product market, holding a market share of 35.0% in China as of 2024 [2][8] - The copper cultural product market is rapidly growing, with a projected CAGR of 7.7% from 2024 to 2029, outpacing the overall growth of the metal cultural product market [3][30] - The company has a strong focus on traditional culture and employs the lost-wax casting method to create refined products [4][56] Market Overview - The Chinese cultural and creative product market is expected to grow from CNY 286.9 billion in 2019 to CNY 354.0 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.3% [27] - The copper cultural product segment is smaller, with a projected sales revenue of CNY 1.6 billion in 2024, accounting for 6.3% of the metal cultural product market [30] - The market is highly concentrated, with the top three companies accounting for 71.9% of the market share in 2024 [37] Product Offering - The company's main products include copper ornaments and copper sculptures, with the copper ornament series being the most popular [42][45] - The company also offers a variety of products based on traditional Chinese culture, including collaborations with well-known IPs [47][53] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 571.2 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.8% [14][66] - The net profit for 2024 was CNY 79.0 million, with a net profit margin of 13.8%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points from the previous year [66] - The overall gross margin improved to 35.4% in 2024, up by 3.0 percentage points [66] Sales Channels - The company primarily uses direct sales channels, with online direct sales accounting for 70.5% of total revenue in 2024 [61] - The company has expanded its offline presence with nine direct stores in major cities to enhance brand visibility [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a gradual increase in copper prices due to improved macroeconomic expectations and potential domestic stimulus policies [1][4]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, while LME copper inventory continues to decline, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [10][25]. - The report highlights that the recent trade tensions have not yet negatively impacted the economy, which may continue to suppress copper price increases [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased by 9.9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5.9% [2][25]. - As of May 16, 2025, domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports was 820,000 tons, down 9% from the previous week [2]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [2][49]. - The report notes that cable companies maintain high operating rates, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points in the operating rate this week [3][77]. Price and Futures Summary - As of May 16, 2025, SHFE copper futures closed at 78,140 CNY/ton, up 0.9% from May 9, while LME copper closed at 9,448 USD/ton, up 0.02% [1][17]. - The report indicates a decrease in SHFE copper active contract positions by 3.9% week-on-week, with COMEX non-commercial net long positions down by 0.8% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4][5].