Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market may face tightening, influenced by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US-China relations, leading to a potential volatile market [2] - Long-term prospects for the Hong Kong stock market remain positive due to strong overall profitability and the scarcity of assets in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, suggesting a favorable long-term investment value [2] Market Data Summary - The domestic new fund market is experiencing a surge with 50 new funds launched, primarily equity mixed funds, while the net value of equity funds has collectively declined [3] - Notably, the net inflow into stock ETFs reached 14.669 billion yuan, with a focus on small-cap and sci-tech boards, while large-cap ETFs saw net outflows [3] Industry Research Summary Automotive Industry - The commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with a significant growth inflection point expected in 2025, driven by advancements in reinforcement learning and large models [4] - Recommended companies include Tesla for L4 pure vision Robotaxi and suppliers like Nidec for steer-by-wire systems, along with Xpeng Motors and a focus on Li Auto and NIO [4] High-end Manufacturing - Optimus robots are set for major improvements, with a positive outlook on humanoid robotics and specific attention to high-complexity dexterous hands and rolling screw technology [5] - The engineering machinery sector is facing short-term domestic pressure but maintains a growth trend in exports, with recommended companies including Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry [5] Non-ferrous Metals - Domestic air conditioning sales increased by 2.3% in May, while production fell by 1.8%, indicating potential demand weakness [6] - The report suggests that copper prices may stabilize in the short term but are expected to rise gradually with domestic stimulus policies and potential US interest rate cuts [6] Basic Chemicals - The report highlights the long-term value of leading companies in the chemical industry, with recommendations for major players in oil and gas, low-valuation chemical leaders, and new materials sectors [8] - Specific companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum [8] Pharmaceutical Industry - The acceleration of innovative drug reviews is expected to enhance the value of quality pipelines and improve market sentiment towards the innovative drug sector [9] - Key companies to focus on include Hansoh Pharmaceutical and BeiGene, which are positioned for rapid development and internationalization [9] Steel Industry - The report notes a decline in the domestic alumina capacity utilization rate to a new low for 2023, with expectations for steel sector profitability to recover to historical averages [10] - The revised steel industry standards are anticipated to support this recovery [10]

2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业研究 Optimus 机器人将迎重大改进，叉车 5 月内外销增速表现亮眼 ——机械行业周报 2025 年第 25 周（2025.6.16-2025.6.22） 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 分析师：庄晓波 机械行业 买入（维持） 执业证书编号：S0930524070018 0755-25310400 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.com 联系人：夏天宇 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 24/06 24/09 2 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业研究 5 月国内氧化铝产能利用率降至 2023 年以来新低 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.6.16-6.22） 要点 流动性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点。（1）BCI 中小 企业融资环境指数 2025 年 5 月值为 49.09，环比上月+2.20%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点，环比+0.9 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格环比上 周-1.91%。 基建和地产链条：6 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+3.25%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹+0.00%、水泥价格指数-1.21%、橡胶+0.72%、焦炭 +0.00%、焦煤-3.11%、铁矿-2.07%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别+0.21pct、-5.90pct、-1.8pct、 +4.24pct；（3）2025 年 6 月上旬，重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量为 215.90 万吨。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 总量研究 国内新基市场发行火热，被动资金流入中小盘、科创板 ESG 金融产品跟踪：本周绿色债券发行市场热度持续上升，新发行绿色债券 27 只，已发行规模合计 453.12 亿元。国内绿色债券市场稳步发展，截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，绿色债券市场累计发行规模合计 4.56 万亿元，发行数 量合计 3922 只。 基金表现方面，主动权益型、股票被动指数型、债券型 ESG 基金本周净值涨 跌幅中位数分别为-1.24%、-0.91%、0.10%。低碳经济、绿色、碳中和主题 基金表现明显占优。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，国内基金市场存量 ESG 基金 共 213 只，规模合计 1307.73 亿元。 风险提示：报告数据均来自于历史公开数据整理分析，存在失效的风险；历 史业绩不代表未来；基于定量模型测算基金仓位结果，和实际仓位存在差 异。 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250623 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.6.16-2025.6.20）原油价格延续上涨，权益市场指数全面回调。行业方 面，本周银行、通信、电子 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 总量研究 国内新基市场发行火热，被动资金流入中小盘、科创板 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250623 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.6.16-2025.6.20）原油价格延续上涨，权益市场指数全面回调。行业方 面，本周银行、通信、电子行业呈现上涨，美容护理、纺织服饰、医药生物 行业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周权益类基金净值集体下滑，中长期纯债 型基金涨幅占优。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内新基市场发行火热，新成立基金 50 只，以股 混基金为主，新成立基金合计发行份额为 459.23 亿份。其中债券型基金 10 只、混合型基金 14 只、股票型基金 20 只、FOF 基金 3 只、REITs2 只、国 际(QDII)基金 1 只。全市场新发行基金 19 只，从类型来看，股票型基金 14 只、债券型基金 3 只、FOF 基金 1 只、混合型基金 1 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数方面，本周医药主题基金净值显 著回撤，金融地产、TMT 主题基金维持正收益。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日， 本周金融地产、T ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week, influenced by a decline in risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.1% and the CSI 500 down by 1.8% [1][12] - The banking, communication, and electronics sectors performed relatively well, with gains of 2.6%, 1.6%, and 1.0% respectively, while the beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical sectors saw significant declines of 5.9%, 5.1%, and 4.4% [1][12][16] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with an overall increase of 17.3% as of June 20, ranking it among the top global markets [2][19] - The AH share premium index has significantly declined from a high of 145 at the beginning of the year to around 128, representing a decrease of 10.7% [2][24] - The decline in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has led to a significant reduction in financing costs for the Hong Kong stock market, with the 1-month HIBOR dropping to approximately 0.53% [2][27] Group 3 - Southbound capital remains a significant portion of the Hong Kong market, with net inflows reaching 697.6 billion HKD as of June 20, 2025, and trading volume consistently maintaining a high proportion [3][36] - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation state, with three main investment themes to focus on: domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and sectors that are currently underweighted by funds [4][55][57] - The domestic consumption theme is expected to receive policy support, while the domestic substitution theme may present investment opportunities, albeit with challenges [4][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is currently in a downcycle, with recent safety incidents leading to stricter regulations on high-risk chemical projects. Leading companies with better safety management and advanced production technologies are expected to benefit from stable production amidst supply constraints [2][3] - The recent suspension of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park in Shandong due to a major safety incident will impact the supply of chlorantraniliprole and its intermediates, leading to price increases in the market [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to maintain long-term value [2][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a downturn, with safety incidents prompting tighter regulations on high-risk projects. Leading firms are likely to benefit from their superior safety protocols and production capabilities [2] Recent Developments - A significant safety accident at Shandong Youdao Chemical has led to the suspension of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park, affecting the supply of chlorantraniliprole and its intermediates. This has resulted in a strong cost support for chlorantraniliprole, with market prices reaching 305,000 CNY per ton as of June 20 [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in chlorantraniliprole, such as Lier Chemical, and those with K amine, like Lianhua Technology. It also suggests looking at competitors of chlorantraniliprole, such as Yangnong Chemical [1][2] - For the upstream oil and gas sector, companies like China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Price Trends - The report tracks price movements of key chemical products, noting significant increases in diesel and Brent crude oil prices, which rose by 10.97% and 10.58% respectively over the past week [18][19] Sub-industry Dynamics - The report highlights various sub-industries, including the polyester market, which is experiencing price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes. The polyurethane market is facing weak domestic demand, while the titanium dioxide sector is seeing supply constraints due to structural adjustments [21][22]

2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业研究 创新药审评再次加速，创新药产业链主线持续明确 ——医药生物行业跨市场周报（20250622） 要点 行情回顾： 上市公司研发进度跟踪： 上周，和誉医药的 ABSK043 片的 IND 申请新进承办；百济神州的注射用 BGB-B455、三生制药的 SA102-CAR-T 注射液的临床申请新进承办。 众生药业的 RAY1225、恒瑞医药的 HRS-1893 正在进行三期临床；翰森制药的 HS-10370、三生制药的 SSGJ-612 正在进行一期临床。 上周，A 股医药生物指数下跌 4.35%，跑输沪深 300 指数 3.90pp，跑输创业板 综指 2.67pp，在 31 个子行业中排名第 29，表现较差。H 股恒生医疗健康指数 上周收跌 7.72%，跑输恒生国企指数 6.24pp。 本周观点：创新药审评再次加速，创新药产业链主线持续明确 2025 年 6 月 16 日，国家药监局综合司公开征求《关于优化创新药临床试验审 评审批有关事项的公告（征求意见稿）》意见。短期看，审批效率提升将加速优 质管线价值释放，提振市场对创新药板块的风险偏好；中长期看，政策通过"扶 优汰劣" ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 晨会速递 总量研究 【宏观】如何解读 5 月份财政数据？——2025 年 5 月财政数据点评 5 月份财政收支同比增速均较上月回落，主要关注以下三点：其一，财政支出仍较为 强劲，兜底"三保"支出力度较强，但基建支出同比增速回落幅度较大，需关注地方 投资动能和意愿表现；其二，非税收入同比增速继续回落指向地方资金环境持续好转， 但税收收入同比增速依然不高，在加强征管之外仍需提振价格表现；其三，土地市场 改善并不持续，指向房地产市场向下"惯性"仍在，积极财政政策仍需择机推出。风 险提示：政策落地不及预期，重大项目开工不及预期。 【宏观】美联储在等待关税"冲击"——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评 美联储在 6 月会议如期按兵不动、将继续观察，点阵图也并未调整 2025 年的利率预 测。观察 5 月以来的数据，关税对消费的冲击已经逐步显现，对就业造成了结构性的 影响，但对通胀的影响尚未体现出来。我们理解，美联储依然在等待关税对通胀的"一 次性冲击"，并权衡其对于经济和就业的冲击，才会决策是否要推动降息。 【策略】被动型资金和个人资金仍是资金面的主要变量——资金面系列报告之四 公 ...

2025 年 6 月 22 日 电力设备新能源、公用事业、环保 持续看好风电整机、固态电池板块，关注光伏"防内卷"后续政策 联系人：邓怡亮 021-52523802 dengyiliang@ebscn.com ——电新公用环保行业周报 20250622 电力设备新能源 买入（维持） 公用事业 买入（维持） 环保 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：殷中枢 执业证书编号：S0930518040004 010-58452071 yinzs@ebscn.com 分析师：郝骞 执业证书编号：S0930520050001 021-52523827 haoqian@ebscn.com 分析师：陈无忌 执业证书编号：S0930522070001 021-52523693 chenwuji@ebscn.com 分析师：宋黎超 执业证书编号：S0930523060001 021-52523817 songlichao@ebscn.com 分析师：和霖 执业证书编号：S0930523070006 021-52523853 helin@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024/6/20 ...