【房地产】核心城市土拍热度延续，1-5 月光大核心 30 城宅地成交均价同比+24%— —土地市场月度跟踪报告（2025 年 5 月）(增持) 1-5 月百城宅地成交建面 6,991 万平，同比-3.4%，成交楼面均价 7,466 元/平方米， 同比+26.2%；5 月光大核心 30 城宅地成交整体溢价率为 9.2%（15 宗宅地成交溢价 率超 20%），同比+7.1pct。1-5 月 TOP50 房企新增土储价值同比+42%，新增土储 面积同比-1%，核心城市土拍热度延续，高能级城市楼市将逐步止跌回稳，推荐华润 置地、中国金茂等。 2025 年 6 月 26 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3455.97 | 1.04 | | 沪深 300 | 3960.07 | 1.44 | | 深证成指 | 10393.72 | 1.72 | | 中小板指 | 6504.5 | 1.21 | | 创业板指 | 2128.39 | 3.11 | | | 股指期货 | | | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development industry [6] Core Insights - The land market in core cities continues to show strong activity, with the average transaction price of residential land in 30 core cities increasing by 24% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [1] - The total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, while the average floor price increased by 26.2% during the same period [1] - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 42% year-on-year increase in the value of newly acquired land reserves, despite a slight decrease of 1% in the area of new land reserves [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - In the first five months of 2025, the total area of land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, with a total supply of 484 million square meters [11] - The total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities was 69.91 million square meters, down 3.4% year-on-year [21] 2. Transaction Prices of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - The average transaction price of residential land in 100 cities increased by 26% year-on-year, reaching 7,466 yuan per square meter [58] - The average transaction price in first-tier cities was 42,605 yuan per square meter, up 50.6% year-on-year [68] 3. Land Acquisition by Top 50 Real Estate Companies - The top 50 real estate companies acquired land worth 4,218 billion yuan from January to May 2025, a 42% increase year-on-year [2][82] - The top three companies in terms of newly acquired land value were Poly Developments (41.3 billion yuan), Greentown China (39.4 billion yuan), and China Jinmao (36 billion yuan) [2][91] 4. Transaction Situation of Residential Land in 30 Core Cities - In May 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in the 30 core cities was 667 million square meters, an increase of 64.3% year-on-year [97] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in these cities was 9.2%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][97] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong comprehensive development capabilities and high product reputation, such as China Overseas Development, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments [109] - It also recommends looking into commercial public REITs and property service companies with strong operational capabilities, such as China Resources Land and Greentown Service [110]

2025 年 6 月 25 日 有色金属 铱价格创近 10 个月新高，多晶硅价格创 2014 年以来新低 ——金属新材料高频数据周报（20250616-20250622） 要点 军工新材料：价格持平。（1）本周电解钴价格 23.60 万元/吨，环比+0%。 本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值 0.93 ，环比+0.1%；电解钴和硫酸钴价格比值为 5.02 ，环比+1.4%。（2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克，环比+0%。毛利 -8.56 元/千克。（3）铍价格本周持平。 新能源车新材料：氢氧化锂价格下跌。（1）本周 Li2O 5%锂精矿中国到岸价 540 美元/吨，环比 -0.92%。（2）本周电碳、工碳和电池级氢氧化锂价格分 别为 6.06 、5.98 和 5.96 万元/吨，环比-0.1%、+1.21%和-2.3%。电碳与工 碳价差为 2024 年 11 月以来新低，或代表锂电景气度相较工业领域有所减 弱。（3）本周硫酸钴价格 4.77 万元/吨，环比+0%。（4）本周磷酸铁锂、 523 型正极材料价格分别为 3.03 、10.48 万元/吨，环比+0%、-0.7%。（5） 本周氧化镨钕价格 444.11 元 ...

Core Insights - Exports to North America have shown a significant decline in May, particularly in electric tools and lawn mowers, with year-on-year changes of -3% and -1% respectively, while the engineering machinery category maintains a high growth rate [2] - The engineering machinery sector's exports from January to May have seen double-digit growth, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery growing by 22%, 30%, and 23% respectively, indicating a positive trend [2] - The domestic sales of excavators are under short-term pressure, but the ongoing replacement demand is expected to drive long-term growth in sales, supported by favorable policies from the Two Sessions [3] - The company Akole (603722.SH) has announced a restricted stock incentive plan, which is expected to enhance the motivation of core members and lead to mass production of COC/COP products by 2025 [4] - Yuanli Co., Ltd. (300174.SZ) has adjusted its 2025 net profit forecast down by 25% to 290 million yuan due to slowing terminal demand, but remains optimistic about its long-term investment value due to progress in new energy carbon materials [5] - Chip manufacturer Chipsea Technology (688595.SH) is experiencing a recovery in downstream demand, with stable shipments of single-cell BMS and significant growth in multi-cell BMS among major clients [6] Industry Summary - The engineering machinery industry is expected to benefit from ongoing internationalization and electrification trends, with leading companies likely to see both volume and profit growth [3] - The overall demand for engineering machinery is projected to continue recovering in the medium term, supported by government policies [3] - The high-end manufacturing sector is facing challenges in domestic sales but remains optimistic about future growth driven by product upgrades and international expansion [3]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decline in exports to North America in May, while the engineering machinery category remains robust [1] - The negative impact of tariffs on the economy is evident, with a notable drop in U.S. retail sales and a decrease in durable goods consumption [3] - The report suggests a focus on emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America, which are showing strong growth in exports [7][8] Summary by Sections Consumer Goods - Electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers are primarily targeted at high-end consumers in Europe and the U.S. [3] - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 7%, -7%, and 49% respectively [4] - Exports to North America for electric tools and lawn mowers showed a year-on-year decline of 3% and 1% respectively, indicating a cooling in exports due to tariffs [4][11] Capital Goods - Industrial sewing machines are mainly exported to Asia, with Turkey, Vietnam, and Singapore as key markets [5] - Forklifts and machine tools also have significant markets in Asia and Europe, with export growth rates of 41% and 23% to Africa and Latin America respectively in the first five months of 2025 [6][7] - The cumulative export growth rate for engineering machinery reached 10% in the first five months of 2025, with Africa showing the fastest growth at 64% [6] Engineering Machinery - The export growth rates for major categories of engineering machinery, including excavators and tractors, were 22% and 30% respectively in the first five months of 2025 [10] - The report emphasizes the potential for a new round of capital expenditure in the mining sector, suggesting investment opportunities in related companies [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Glass prices have been on a downward trend, and the supply - side daily melting volume may accelerate contraction due to corporate losses. The demand is expected to be weak from July to August but may improve from September to December, with potential price increases and stock price rebounds similar to Q4 2024. However, glass prices may hit new lows due to the continuous decline in soda ash prices [3][27]. - There is high investor attention on special electronic cloth. Domestic leading enterprises are actively increasing supply capacity in response to the opportunity of domestic substitution. It is recommended to pay attention to companies such as Sinoma Science & Technology and Honghe Technology [3]. - It is recommended to pay attention to companies like Honglu Steel Structure, Qibin Group, Punan Co., Ltd., Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China National Chemical Engineering, China State Construction, Shanghai Harbor, Sinoma Science & Technology, and Keda Manufacturing [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - long Special Topic: How Much Room Is There for the Decline of Float Glass Prices? - **Current Glass Price Position**: As of June 20, 2025, the glass price has dropped to 1,190 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decline of about 470 yuan, approaching the lowest point of this cycle (1,160 yuan/ton in late September 2024). The current price is at the lowest 2% of the price range from 2017 to now [10]. - **Reasons for Price Decline**: The continuous decline in glass prices is mainly due to the continuous negative year - on - year growth rate of housing completion area since 2024, which reduces the consumption of architectural glass, and the continuous decline in soda ash prices, which lowers the production cost of glass [12]. - **Stock Price Rebound in the Downturn**: During the four - year downward cycle of glass stock prices, there are still rebound opportunities. From September to October 2024, the stock price of Qibin Group rebounded by 40% - 50%, partly due to the market's rise and partly due to the rebound of glass prices [17]. - **Supply - Side Contraction and Price Rebound Potential**: If glass prices continue to be sluggish or decline, corporate losses may accelerate the contraction of the supply - side daily melting volume. The demand is expected to be weak from July to August, but the supply - demand pattern may improve from September to December, with potential price increases and stock price rebounds [27]. - **Risk of New Price Lows**: Considering the decline in soda ash prices, the current glass price may be about 108 yuan lower than the low point, and glass prices may hit new lows in this downward cycle [27]. 2. Profit Forecast and Valuation of Main Covered Companies No specific content about profit forecast and valuation is provided other than the table title. 3. Weekly Market Review - **Building and Building Materials Sub - sectors**: The report shows the weekly price changes of various sub - sectors in the building and building materials industries, but specific analysis is not provided [33]. - **Infrastructure Public REITs**: The report lists the weekly market conditions of multiple infrastructure public REITs, including closing prices, 52 - week highs and lows, weekly, monthly, year - to - date, 250 - day, and IPO - to - date price changes [38][39]. 4. Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real Estate Data**: It includes data on real estate new construction, construction, completion, sales area cumulative year - on - year, land transaction data, real estate transaction data, social financing data, infrastructure investment growth rate, and the quarterly new contract signing situation of eight major construction central enterprises [41][85]. - **Special Bond Issuance**: It shows data on the monthly and cumulative issuance amounts of new and replacement special bonds [87][91]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Cement Data**: It includes national PO42.5 cement average price, East China regional cement price trend, cement - coal price difference index, cement inventory ratio, and cement production monthly year - on - year growth rate [98][104]. - **Float Glass Data**: It includes glass spot and futures prices, glass inventory, and glass daily melting volume [104][113]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Data**: It includes photovoltaic glass inventory, soda ash price, 2mm photovoltaic glass price, and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume [112][113]. - **Glass Fiber Data**: It includes prices of various types of glass fiber yarns and glass fiber inventory [116][128]. - **Carbon Fiber Data**: It includes carbon fiber average price, raw silk price, production, inventory, start - up rate, cost, gross profit, and gross profit margin [125][134]. - **Magnesia and Alumina Prices**: It includes the ex - factory tax - included price of large - crystal electro - fused magnesia and alumina price [137][139]. - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: It includes prices of asphalt, waste paper, PVC, HDPE, acrylic acid, and titanium dioxide [142][155]. - **Physical Workload Data**: It includes high - machine rental rate, excavator monthly working hours, and asphalt average start - up rate [150][156].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic excavator sales in May 2025 are under short-term pressure due to low downstream operating conditions and earlier high sales in the year, which have somewhat exhausted future purchasing demand [2][3] - The report remains optimistic about the continuous growth in the replacement demand for construction machinery, projecting a compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement volume in the coming years, which is expected to support future excavator sales [3] - The government is expected to increase infrastructure investment, with a proposed issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in local government bonds, which will likely boost downstream equipment demand [4] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In the first five months of 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 101,716 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, with domestic sales at 57,501 units, up 25.7%. However, May 2025 saw a total of 18,202 units sold, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, but domestic sales fell by 1.5% to 8,392 units [2][11] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in May 2025 were 84.5 hours, down 3.9% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month, indicating a decline in operational activity [2] Export Trends - Excavator exports in the first five months of 2025 totaled 44,215 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, with May exports at 9,810 units, up 5.4% [5][11] - The report highlights opportunities and challenges for machinery exports due to geopolitical factors and increasing demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [5] Electrification and Green Transition - Sales of electric loaders surged by 207.7% in the first five months of 2025, with an electrification rate of 20.7%, up 14.5 percentage points year-on-year. In May alone, sales increased by 121.2% [6][11] - The government’s push for green transformation and energy-saving initiatives is expected to accelerate the electrification of construction machinery [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading companies in the machinery sector, including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, Shantui, and China Longgong, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a positive long-term outlook for these firms [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's employee stock ownership plan has been successfully completed, indicating a growing long-term investment value [1] - The management and key employees' confidence in the company's future is reflected in the stock repurchase plan, which accounts for 0.72% of the total share capital [2] - The company continues to lead the industry in activated carbon production, with a production capacity of 149,900 tons and a utilization rate of 98.68% in 2024, while sales increased by 17.86% year-on-year [2] - The development of new energy carbon materials is progressing well, with mass production of hard carbon and porous carbon achieved, which is expected to create new growth drivers for the company [3] - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down by 25% to CNY 290 million due to slowing terminal demand, but future profit projections for 2026 and 2027 have been introduced at CNY 336 million and CNY 407 million, respectively [3] Summary by Sections Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The company completed its employee stock ownership plan by acquiring 2.6217 million shares at CNY 14.83 per share, with senior management and supervisors participating at a rate of 9.23% [1] Production and Sales Performance - The company has maintained its position as the leading producer of activated carbon in China, with a production capacity of 149,900 tons and sales of 150,200 tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.86% [2] - The sodium silicate production capacity reached 207,200 tons, with a utilization rate of 96.13%, but sales decreased by 42.47% year-on-year [2] - The silica gel production capacity was 26,000 tons, with a utilization rate of 106.90% and sales increasing by 10.62% year-on-year [2] New Energy Carbon Materials - The company has successfully launched its first porous carbon production line, with hard carbon and porous carbon achieving mass production, enhancing product competitiveness [3] - A change in fundraising allocation was announced to support the construction of a new porous carbon project, further solidifying the company's position in the new energy carbon materials sector [3] Financial Forecasts - The report provides a financial forecast with expected revenues of CNY 2,067 million for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 9.78% [4] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at CNY 290 million, with a slight increase in subsequent years [4] - Key financial metrics such as EPS and ROE are also projected to improve over the next few years, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial health [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has announced a restricted stock incentive plan aimed at enhancing the motivation of core members, with a focus on the progress of its COC/COP products, which are expected to achieve mass sales by 2025 [2][4]. - The incentive plan's assessment period is set from 2025 to 2027, with specific sales and profit targets outlined for each year, indicating a strong confidence in the company's product development [2][4]. - The company has successfully initiated trial production of its thousand-ton COC production line, which is currently undergoing stability testing, and plans to expand its optical materials project in Hubei [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Incentive Plan - The company plans to grant 2.03 million restricted stocks to 22 key personnel at a price of 22.17 yuan per share, with performance targets linked to the sales of core products and net profit [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.21 billion, 1.06 billion, and 2.24 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment for 2025 and 2026 due to weak profitability in its polyetheramine products [4][5]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly from 0.522 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.108 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding profit margins improving over the forecast period [5][11]. Production and Sales Targets - By the end of 2025, the company aims to achieve mass sales of its COC products in at least two out of three targeted fields, with specific sales volume targets set for 2026 and 2027 [2][4]. - The company is also investing in a new project to produce 20,000 tons of polyether amine, with a total investment of 327 million yuan [3][4]. Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of the company is approximately 4.257 billion yuan, with a share price of 44.48 yuan [6]. - The report indicates a significant increase in expected earnings per share (EPS) from 0.22 yuan in 2025 to 2.34 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company, Chipsea Technology (688595.SH), is transitioning from traditional consumer electronics to high-end sectors such as automotive electronics, computing and communication, mobile phones, BMS, and industrial control since 2019. The core products are high-performance SOCs [2]. - The company has seen a recovery in downstream demand, with product shipments gradually increasing. Revenue for 2024 is projected at 702 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.22%, and Q1 2025 revenue is expected to be 158 million yuan, up 4.66% year-on-year [2]. - The company has launched multiple new products in the analog signal chain, with 2024 revenue from these products expected to reach 181 million yuan, a 137.11% increase year-on-year, driven by significant sales growth in BMS products [3]. - MCU chip revenue is projected to reach 326 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a 67.63% year-on-year growth, with notable increases in EC and HUB product shipments [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - The company anticipates a revenue of 951 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 35.36%, and 1.226 billion yuan in 2026, with a growth rate of 28.92% [5]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is -13 million yuan, with a subsequent recovery to 23 million yuan in 2026 and 36 million yuan in 2027 [5]. Product Performance - The BMS series products have achieved cumulative shipments exceeding 100 million units, with the first automotive-grade BMS AFE chip set to be released soon [3]. - The company has established a broad product layout centered around EC, covering PD, HapticPad, USB 3.0 HUB, and BMS, with significant growth in shipments for these products [4]. Financial Metrics - The projected gross margin for 2024 is 34.2%, with an expected improvement to 39.3% by 2027 [12]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 1.695 billion yuan in 2024, with total liabilities of 938 million yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 55% [11].