2025 年 04 月 15 日 行业研究 [Table_Title] 美国关税加码，全球资产"震颤" 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn ——钢铁与大宗商品行业周报 最近一年走势 投资要点 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/04/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 钢铁 | | -8.0% | 4.5% | -0.5% | | 沪深 | 300 | -6.2% | -1.6% | 8.2% | 相关报告 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：关税风险支撑溢价， 铜金最为受益（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》—— 2025-03-24 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：会议落地黑色情绪回 落，关税高悬有色价格走高（无评级）*钢铁*谢文 迪》——2025-03-10 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：美国关税政策再调 整，避险情绪为主流（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》— —2025-02-17 《钢铁与大宗商品行 ...

Group 1: Company Insights - Dongfang Caifu's securities business market share continues to rise, benefiting from the capital market recovery in Q4 2024, with brokerage market share at 4.11% and margin financing market share at 3.16% [4][5] - In 2024, Dongfang Caifu achieved revenue of 11.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.72%, and net profit of 9.610 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3][4] - Ningbo Bank reported an 8.19% increase in revenue and a 6.23% increase in net profit for 2024, with total assets exceeding 3.1 trillion yuan [9][11] - Ningbo Bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable, with a provision coverage ratio of 389.35% [10][11] - The company expects to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 22.77% in 2024 [11] Group 2: Industry Trends - The aluminum industry is experiencing a reduction in tariff pressures, with domestic aluminum production capacity expected to rise to 43.92 million tons per year by the end of April 2025 [14][18] - Despite tariff impacts, demand for aluminum is showing slight growth, with inventory levels decreasing [15][18] - The coal market is stabilizing, with port inventories declining and prices holding steady due to supply constraints and steady demand from non-electric sectors [19][21] - The introduction of high-purity quartz as a new mineral resource in China is expected to support the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries, with significant breakthroughs in domestic production capabilities [24][25] - The chemical industry is anticipated to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability among leading companies [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1][9] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, and the impact of new business investments is expected to be manageable [2] - JD Group's revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to reach 290.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [5] - The report highlights the strong recovery in consumer spending and the benefits from national subsidies, particularly in the electronics and daily necessities categories [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: 1,266.2 billion yuan - 2026E: 1,334.0 billion yuan - 2027E: 1,400.6 billion yuan [7][9] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2025E: 45.56 billion yuan - 2026E: 51.38 billion yuan - 2027E: 56.05 billion yuan [7][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025E: 14.63 yuan - 2026E: 16.40 yuan - 2027E: 17.78 yuan [7][9] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2025E: 18% - 2026E: 19% - 2027E: 20% [7][9] Business Segment Insights - **JD Retail**: - Expected revenue growth of 12.3% to 254.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, driven by national subsidies and improved operational efficiency [5][8] - **JD Logistics**: - Anticipated revenue growth of 11% to 46.9 billion yuan in Q1 2025, benefiting from the overall growth in the express delivery market [5][8] - **JD Delivery**: - Daily order volume is projected to exceed 5 million following the launch of a significant subsidy program [8]

2025 年 04 月 14 日 债券研究周报 研究所： | 证券分析师： | 靳毅 S0350517100001 | | --- | --- | | | jiny01@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 刘畅 S0350524090005 | | | liuc06@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 机构行为每周跟踪 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 机构资金跟踪 本周（4 月 7 日-4 月 11 日）流动性略有放松。R007 收于 1.70%， 较上周减少 4BP，DR007 收于 1.65%，较上周减少 4BP。6 个月国 股转贴利率收于 1.20%，较上周增加 8BP。 机构行为量化指标 久期方面，本周绩优利率债基金久期较上周减少 0.10；"资产荒" 指数有所上行；杠杆方面，全市场杠杆率较上周增加 0.2 个百分点， 收于 106.9%；理财市场方面，本周全市场产品破净率较上周有所上 行，为 2.6%。 风险提示 相关结论主要基于过往数据计算所得，不能完全预测 未来；报告采用的样本数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整体市场的 风险，且数据处理统计方式可能存在误差；中国央行货币 ...

2025 年 04 月 14 日 固定收益点评 [Table_Title] 债市如何交易关税冲击？ 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 《固定收益点评：同业存单的新机会*靳毅》—— 2025-03-23 《固定收益点评：降息预期修正到位了吗？*靳毅》 《固定收益点评：地产市场近况更新*靳毅》—— 2025-03-11 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 马闻倬 S0350124070011 mawz@ghzq.com.cn 《固定收益点评：政府债供给放量，会扰动债市 吗？*靳毅》——2025-04-06 《固定收益点评：4 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-03-30 ——2025-03-17 4 月 2 日，对等关税出台大超市场预期，我国债市利率受此影响快速下行，目前 点位已接近前低位置，后续债市将如何交易关税冲击？我们复盘了上一轮 2018 年的贸易摩擦中债市的表现，为本轮贸易战下的债市交易提供借鉴。 资料来源：新华网、Wind、国海证券研究所 1、2018 年贸易摩 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11]. Core Views - The company has sufficient orders on hand to ensure future performance, and its overseas strategy is gradually being realized [3][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.63 billion yuan, an increase of 7% [4][10]. - The company secured new orders worth 18.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, with a backlog of 10.155 billion yuan at the end of 2024, up 34.5% year-on-year [5][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, up 15.5% year-on-year [4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 33.7%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 20.1%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue from high-end equipment manufacturing reached 9.18 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with a gross margin of 39.4%, up 1.9 percentage points [5][10]. - The company maintained a strong competitive position in domestic and international markets for drilling and completion equipment, securing multiple contracts with major oil companies [5][10]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.176 billion yuan, 17.478 billion yuan, and 20.494 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.958 billion yuan, 3.483 billion yuan, and 4.031 billion yuan [9][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of 12% to 14% over the next few years, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 14.28 in 2024 to 7.88 in 2027 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the weak fluctuation of pig prices, with expectations of a downward trend in the short term and a long-term weak operation in 2025 due to increased supply and weak demand [4][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to the impact of tariffs and a shortage of quality breeding stock caused by avian influenza [5][28] - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand and external expansion opportunities, with rising prices for key products like Tylosin [6][41] - The planting sector is experiencing price fluctuations for major grains, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified seeds [8][46] - The feed sector is seeing a decline in prices, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group [8][49] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong performance from domestic brands and recommendations for companies in the pet food and medical sectors [8][54][57] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly, with a forecast of weak performance in 2025 due to increased supply [4][14] - As of April 10, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 14.6 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may see price increases due to tariff impacts and a lack of quality breeding stock [5][28] - The average price of broiler chickens is 3.75 CNY/lb, reflecting a weekly increase [28] Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing improved profitability, with Tylosin prices rising significantly [6][41] - The report suggests focusing on companies with expected external expansion, such as Reap Bio [6] Planting Sector - Major grain prices are fluctuating, with corn priced at 2199 CNY/ton and wheat at 2422 CNY/ton [8][46] - The report recommends companies involved in genetically modified seed development [8] Feed Sector - Feed prices are declining, with pig feed at 3.35 CNY/kg [8][49] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haida Group due to expected industry consolidation [8] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [8][54] - Recommendations include companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are experiencing significant growth [8][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the food and beverage sector amid changing tariffs and strengthening domestic demand, particularly benefiting the liquor segment [5][11]. - Recent performance shows that the food and beverage sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 0.26% increase compared to a 3.37% decline in the index over the two weeks from March 31 to April 11, 2025 [3][18]. - The liquor segment is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand due to the escalation of the US-China tariff conflict, with a focus on companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [5][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the two weeks from March 31 to April 11, 2025, the food and beverage sector rose by 0.26%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.64 percentage points [3][18]. - The snack segment saw the highest increase at 10.70%, followed by soft drinks at 6.03% and dairy products at 4.68% [3][18]. - Notable stock performances included Beiyinmei (+41.72%), Xibu Muye (+41.11%), and Yanjinpuzi (+24.24%) leading the gains, while Huangshi Group (-17.37%) and others faced declines [3][18]. Liquor Segment - The liquor sector experienced a slight decline of 1.14% over the same two-week period, but rebounded by 4.10% from April 8 to April 11 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand for liquor companies, especially in light of recent tariff conflicts [5][11]. - Key recommendations include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and other leading liquor brands [7][12]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the consumer goods sector is benefiting from policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand and increasing birth rates, particularly in the dairy segment [8][10]. - Companies like China Feihe and Yili have announced substantial subsidies to support families, which is expected to boost sales in the dairy sector [8][10]. - The report highlights the strong performance of snack companies, particularly those focusing on low-calorie konjac products, with Salted Fish and Wei Long leading the market [9][10]. Valuation and Recommendations - As of April 11, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector stands at 21.45x, indicating a mid-range position among primary industries [26][30]. - The report recommends several stocks across different segments, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and various consumer goods companies like Yili and Salted Fish [12][29].

2025 年 04 月 14 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周整体市场波动较大，鼎佳精密、岷山环能两 家企业上会通过 ——北交所行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/04/11 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | -9.41% | 25.37% | 53.70% | | 沪深 | 300 | -4.54% | 0.48% | 7.01% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：北交所出台自律管理规则，本 周天工股份完成注册、下周两家企业上会（推荐） *中小盘*罗琨》——2025-04-07 《北交所行业周报：近期北证 50 指数有所回调， 本周开发科技上市（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 2025-03-31 《商业航天行业报告：商业航天方兴未艾，低轨卫 星星座建设加速（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term operational pressure due to domestic industry policy factors and has increased strategic investments, leading to a 5.02% year-on-year decline in revenue for 2024, totaling 2.014 billion yuan [5][4] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company has made significant advancements in high-end ultrasound and endoscopy products, indicating a potential for future growth [5][6] - The company is expected to recover with projected revenue growth rates of 23%, 22%, and 22% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a significant rebound in net profit [8][9] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2.014 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.02% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 68.67% to 142 million yuan [4][5] - The ultrasound business generated 1.183 billion yuan, down 3.26%, while the endoscopy business brought in 795 million yuan, down 6.44% [5] Product Development - The company launched high-end ultrasound machines S80 and P80, marking a breakthrough in the high-end ultrasound field [5] - The endoscopy sector has seen the release of several products, including the HD-580 series, which significantly improves image quality and clinical detail [5] - The company is actively developing AI applications for endoscopy quality control and has achieved regulatory certifications for several products [5] Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its domestic marketing efforts, focusing on high-end products and increasing its presence in large medical institutions [6] - Internationally, the company has improved its brand influence through new product launches and participation in academic conferences [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.468 billion yuan, 2.998 billion yuan, and 3.654 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 418 million yuan, 545 million yuan, and 732 million yuan [8][9] - The expected P/E ratios for the same years are 31.77, 24.36, and 18.14, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9]