本周化工市场综述 政策方面，李强表示，以更大力度促进消费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环。在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方 面政策措施早出手、快出手，对预期形成积极影响。 投资方面，当下预期较为混乱，建议继续以防守为主。龙头方面，我们认为利空或多或少反应在股价，只是向 上弹性不大；除此之外，建议短期规避出口敞口大的方向。 本周市场的关注重心依然在于关税，但关税豁免的反反复复进一步打乱了市场预期，以电子产品为例，先是被 豁免，但之后有报道称被豁免的电子产品将被征收单独关税；关税的变化也会对产业链的库存行为产生影响，由于 关税的节奏和幅度超预期，市场没有足够的时间储备库存，接下来产业链可能会处于加速去库阶段，一旦关税反 转，可能会发生阶段性大补库，以贸易数据平台 Vizion 提供的数据为例，由于关税不确定性，过去七天，前往美国 的集装箱预订量相比前一周大幅下降 67%，从美国出发的集装箱预订量下降 40%。 油价方面，本周 OPEC 和 IEA 先后下调石油需求预期，短周期看，原油供需矛盾加剧，油价有继续承压的可能， 但站在中期看，我们认为油价的加速触底反而是中周期的大行情的起点。 AI 行业，本周 OpenAI 推出 ...

行业观点更新： 投资建议 风险因素 地产竣工恢复速度低于预期；原材料价格大幅上涨；新品推广不及预期；汇率大幅波动。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 家居板块：内销方面，3 月家具社零同比增长 29.5%，1-3 月社零同比增长 18.1%，一定程度体现出消费补贴的刺 激效果。近期各家家居企业将陆续披露 25 年一季报，预计多数企业 Q1 业绩同比仍有一定压力，待后续前端接单 陆续传导至工厂端叠加后续若更多地产及消费相关刺激政策出台，家居行业部分优质企业的α有望逐步兑现至报 表端。外销方面，目前美国对东南亚地区的对等关税暂停 90 天，此前具备海外产能布局的外销企业短期并未明 显受关税影响，预计 Q1 部分优质出口企业业绩仍较为理想，后续静待相关关税实际落地情况。整体来看，国内 地产端下行风险已相对可控，内需家居板块的配置机会已来临，建议重点关注 25 年业绩增长确定性高并且具备 相对高股息支撑的内销龙头企，此外建议关注部分外销占比相对较低，估值已极具吸引力的优质企业。 新型烟草：近期在英美烟草向美国政府致信后，美国阿拉巴马州总检察长联合其他 27 个州，致信美国政府，希 望政府采取行动，抵制大量非法的电子烟进入 ...

1 2 • 本周主动股票及偏股混合型基金前5大行业：电子（13.84%）、电力设备（8.63%）、汽车（6.70%）、机械设备（6.12%）、医药生物（6.00%）。 • 加仓前3大行业：社会服务(+0.46%）、美容护理(+0.25%）、商贸零售(+0.17%）；减仓前3大行业：通信(-0.29%）、非银金融(-0.23%）、国防军工 (-0.22%）。 • 本周中债10年期国开债到期收益率下行2bps，中长期纯债整体测算久期中位数上升0.02，至2.57年，位于近5年的95.40%分位数。近4周平均久期 中位数为2.56年；本周久期分歧度有所下降，测算久期标准差下降0.09，至1.25年。短期纯债久期中位数下降0.03，至1.05年。 • 信用债基久期中位数上升0.02，至2.28年，操作积极基金占比9%，操作保守基金占比24%；利率债基久期中位数下降0.06，至3.36年，操作积极 基金占比44%，操作保守基金占比5%。 基金股票持仓测算 • 本周2025/04/14-2025/04/18，下同），沪深300上涨0.59%，主动股票及偏股混合基金整体测算股票仓位下降0.70%，至89.21% 。 风险提 ...

3 月白电整体表现稳健，环电表现持续突出。1）白电：线上独立式干衣机显著增长，线下冰洗双位数增长。据奥维云 网，3 月白电各品类中，冰箱、冰柜、洗衣机、独立式干衣机和空调线上零售额规模同比分别为-11.3%、+1.4%、+0.3%、 +123.0% 和+8.4%；线下零售额规模同比分别为+18.9%、-0.5%、+20.6%、+17.1%和-4.3%。2）厨卫：线下呈现复苏态 势，烟灶增幅明显。据奥维云网，3 月厨卫主要品类中，油烟机、燃气灶、洗碗机、集成灶、电热水器和燃热水器的 线上零售额规模同比分别+13.1%、+13.9%、-2.1%、-25.4%、-13.8%和-12.0%；线下零售额规模同比分别为+35.7%、 +41.7%、+43.0%、-16.8%、+20.3%和+21.6%。3）环电：表现持续突出，清洁电器增长强劲。据奥维云网，3 月环电主 要品类中，净化器、净水器、扫地机器人和洗地机线上零售额规模同比分别为+46.3%、+25.6%、+48.3%和+54.6%；线 下零售额规模同比分别为+21.1%、+63.6%、+140.8%和+57.9%。4）彩电：线上线下均实现良好增长。据奥维云网，3 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 商贸零售行业研究 买入（首次评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 线下零售：永辉新调改门店表现优秀，调改进度进一步加速 4 月 11 日，武汉首家胖东来模式调改店于汉阳五里墩万科中心焕新开业，开业三日即呈现客流井喷态势，客流 量同比增长超 300%，销售额同比增长超 10 倍。继一季度先后推出首批 20 家、第二批 24 家调改门店后，4 月 14 日永辉正式发布 2025 年第三批学习胖东来自主调改门店名单，涉及门店数量达 41 家，创单批次调改规模新高。 线上零售：京东外卖订单量超过 500 万单，长期影响仍待观察 4 月 15 日，京东宣布京东品质外卖订单量将超过 500 万单，并且计划本季度将再招收不低于 5 万名全职外卖员， 全额足额全部缴纳五险一金且所有费用都由公司承担。我们认为外卖的商业模式构建在商家、用户和履约端三方 的关系上，且对时效性要求高，从短期维度来看补贴和降佣有望快速扩大用户规模、吸引商家入驻，但从中长期 来看，美团所构建的商户数量壁垒、用户心智壁垒、数据算法对于履约端的调度壁垒不容小觑，对公司的实质性 影响仍待观察。 行业数据追踪 GMV 表现：根据国金 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - As of April 18, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.95 years and 2.15 years respectively, both at relatively high levels since March 2021 [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index slightly declined, currently at the 45.7% level since March 2024 [12]. Group 2: All - Variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds and industrial bonds' trading terms decreased slightly from the previous period but remained at high levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.69 years, 2.97 years, and 1.93 years respectively. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.26 years, 1.79 years, 3.72 years, and 1.36 years respectively [2][10]. Group 3: Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The average duration of urban investment bonds continued to decline slightly, with the weighted trading term around 1.95 years. Sichuan provincial and Beijing district - county - level urban investment bonds had a trading duration close to 4 years, while the durations of Guangdong prefecture - level and Shandong provincial urban investment bonds shortened significantly. The duration historical quantiles of Zhejiang district - county - level, Beijing district - county - level, Shandong prefecture - level, Henan prefecture - level, and Jiangxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds exceeded 90%, with Beijing district - county - level and Shandong prefecture - level approaching the highest since 2021 [3][17]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading term of industrial bonds shortened from the previous period, generally around 2.15 years. The marginal trading term of the commercial retail industry shortened significantly to 1.39 years. Industries such as transportation and commercial retail were at relatively low historical quantiles, while industries like public utilities, food and beverage, building materials, and pharmaceutical biology were above the 90% historical quantile [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of bank perpetual bonds slightly shortened to 2.97 years, at the 36.30% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds significantly shortened to 3.69 years, at the 67.4% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.93 years, at the 33.9% historical quantile, lower than the same period last year [3][24]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 88.2%, 18.8%, 3.3%, and 84.9% historical quantiles respectively. The duration of leasing company bonds slightly increased from last week [4][27].

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/04/14-2025/04/18）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数下跌 0.73%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 27；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.59%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 1.10%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 7；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 4.13%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 燃机国产化加速推进，应流股份燃机叶片订单高增。燃气轮机是关系国家安全和国民经济增长的重大动力装 备，国产化的重要程度高。叶片是燃机的核心零部件，价值量占比 35%左右，技术壁垒较高，也是燃机国产化 率提升的主要突破点。近年来，随着国家政策的不断支持，我国叶片制造技术不断提升。截至 2024 年末，国内 叶片龙头应流股份的燃机叶片已经覆盖 E、F、G/H 等级多款型号燃气轮机，随着技术提升叠加行业需求上行， 公司 2024 年燃机领域订单同比+103%。近日，应流股份子公司应流航源承担的某型重型燃气轮机透平第二级动 叶铸件在霍山通过首 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 681 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.51%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.65 billion RMB, down 48.64% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 182.24 billion RMB, an increase of 24.34% quarter-on-quarter and 7.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7.81 billion RMB, marking a turnaround from losses and a year-on-year increase of 1835% [2] - The increase in sales volume and prices in the rare earth business significantly improved the company's profitability [3] - The company continues to maintain high R&D investment while reducing period expenses [3] - The product structure is continuously optimized, with a 9.65% year-on-year increase in steel sales and a record production of over 1.5 million tons of rare earth steel [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of 681 billion RMB for 2024, down 3.51% from the previous year, and a net profit of 2.65 billion RMB, down 48.64% year-on-year [2][10] - Q4 2024 revenue was 182.24 billion RMB, up 24.34% quarter-on-quarter and 7.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7.81 billion RMB, indicating a significant recovery [2] Business Performance - The rare earth business saw both volume and price increases, with sales volume for key products rising significantly in Q4 2024 [3] - The company’s gross profit and gross margin improved, with gross profit increasing by 58.04% quarter-on-quarter [3] Strategic Outlook - The outlook for rare earth prices is positive due to export controls and reduced overseas supply, which may enhance the company's strategic value [4] - The steel business is expected to benefit from reduced production and a weakening iron ore market [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 617 billion RMB, 635 billion RMB, and 646 billion RMB, with net profits expected to rise to 22 billion RMB, 36 billion RMB, and 45 billion RMB respectively [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, emphasizing its role in boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the market [1][12]. Core Insights - The real estate market is transitioning back to its residential function, with significant declines in new home sales and construction activities projected for 2022-2024 [1][12]. - The implementation of new policies on May 17, 2024, aims to support the real estate market, including adjustments to loan rates and down payment requirements [1][12]. - Infrastructure projects are also highlighted as key drivers of domestic demand, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Guangxi, with significant investments underway [2][13]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative remains a focal point for international expansion, with ongoing collaborations between China and Vietnam to enhance infrastructure connectivity [2][13]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report discusses the importance of real estate in stimulating domestic demand, noting a shift towards residential needs and a significant drop in key market indicators [1][12]. - It highlights the recent government meetings aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and the potential impact of new policies on housing loans [1][12]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices have shown a year-on-year increase, with the national average price at 395 RMB/t, while glass prices have also seen slight increases [3][14]. - The report notes a stable demand for aluminum and steel, with expectations for continued high supply levels [3][14]. National Subsidy Tracking - Various regions have successfully implemented consumer subsidies, such as Shanghai's 1.8 billion RMB for home appliance upgrades, significantly boosting sales [4][15]. - The report suggests focusing on companies related to subsidized products in the construction materials sector [4][15]. Important Developments - The report mentions the strengthening of the strategic partnership between China and Vietnam, along with significant stock purchases by major shareholders in various companies [5][16]. - It emphasizes the government's commitment to stabilizing the stock market and supporting the real estate sector [5][16]. Market Performance (April 14-18) - The construction materials index experienced a slight decline, with specific segments like refractory materials and pipes performing better than others [17]. Construction Material Price Changes - Cement prices have slightly decreased in certain regions, while glass prices have shown minor increases, indicating a mixed market response [29][39]. - The report provides detailed statistics on the pricing trends and inventory levels for various construction materials [29][39].

本周观点 投资建议 建议关注国内生成式大模型龙头科大讯飞；AI 硬件有望成为应用落地的新载体，建议关注萤石网络、虹软科技 等；AI 相关功能打磨能够带动 C 端应用月活量、付费率提升，建议关注金山办公、万兴科技等。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧的风险；技术研发进度不及预期的风险；特定行业下游资本开支周期性波动的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 4 月 17 日，火山引擎发布豆包 1.5·深度思考模型，包含两个版本：Doubao-1.5-thinking-pro 和具备多模态能力 的视觉版 Doubao-1.5-thinking-pro-vision，采用 MoE 架构，总参数量为 200B，激活参数为 20B，在数学推理、 编程竞赛、科学推理等专业领域任务以及创意写作等通用任务中均表现突出。4 月 16 日，可灵 AI 发布了两款基 础模型的升级版本，可灵 2.0 视频生成模型和可图 2.0 图像生成模型。该模型在语义理解、动态画面处理和多风 格适配方面进行了优化。视频模型支持复杂时序描述和镜头运动控制，图像模型提升了细节还原能力并扩展了风 格选项。4 月 15 日，中国证监局官网显示，北京智谱华章科技股份有限 ...