消费行业研究 2025 年 03 月 25 日 买入（维持评级） 行业专题研究报告(深度) 证券研究报告 国金大消费 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：叶思嘉（执业 S1130523080001） yesijia＠gjzq.com.cn 联系人：王译 wangyi9＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：许孟婕（执业 S1130522080003） xumengjie@gjzq.com.cn 复盘 2013 年移动互联+消费浪潮，展望 2023 年来 AI+消费机遇 以史为鉴，复盘 2013-2015 年移动互联网大潮与科技牛市对 2016-2019 年消费牛市的映射： 2013 年来移动互联网浪潮彻底改变消费底层设施并催生大量投资机会。1）线上：支付 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 136.71 per share based on a 35x PE for 2025 [4] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic character building block toy market, leveraging the popularity of its products, particularly the Ultraman series, leading to explosive revenue growth in 2023 and 2024 [2][14] - The company has a strong market share of 30.3% in the Chinese character building block toy market as of 2023, ranking first [2][22] - The financial outlook is positive, with projected adjusted net profits of HKD 9.08 billion, HKD 12.69 billion, and HKD 16.67 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating significant growth [4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has transformed to focus on character building blocks, resulting in revenue of HKD 8.77 billion and HKD 22.4 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 169% and 156% [2][14] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 52.6% in 2024, with a significant reduction in sales expense ratio to 12.6% [2][18] - The company plans to raise HKD 17.9 billion through its IPO to enhance its IP matrix, build factories, and improve product design and development capabilities [2] Competitive Advantages - The company has a differentiated product positioning with a focus on high cost-performance, offering a wide range of products priced from HKD 9.9 to HKD 399 [3][54] - The product development strategy includes a rich SKU offering with rapid iteration, launching 30-90 new SKUs each quarter [3][52] - The company has established a strong offline distribution network, covering approximately 150,000 retail points, primarily targeting lower-tier markets [3][39] Growth Potential - The company is expanding its IP matrix, with significant contributions from major IPs like Ultraman, Transformers, and its own Hero Unlimited, which collectively account for over 90% of revenue in 2024 [3][29] - The company is actively developing its presence in lower-tier markets, which presents further growth opportunities [3][75] - The character building block toy market in China is expected to grow from HKD 58 billion in 2023 to HKD 325 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 41.3% [24][26] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of HKD 9.08 billion, HKD 12.69 billion, and HKD 16.67 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 55%, 40%, and 31% [4][8] - The report anticipates a diluted EPS of HKD 2.35 in 2024, increasing to HKD 6.69 by 2027 [8]

我国溴素进口依赖度较高，进口货源到港延期或将影响短期供需格局。根据隆众资讯，溴素是重要的化工原料，是海 洋化学的重要分支，广泛应用于阻燃剂、制冷剂、感光材料、医药、农药、染料以及石油钻井等领域。从供需格局来 看，根据鲁北化工公司公告和卓创资讯相关数据，一方面受到资源枯竭及生产管制带来的影响，近年我国溴素产量存 在一定程度的降低。 投资建议： 由于我国溴素进口依赖度较高且短期内进口货源受到一定扰动，在下游需求逐步进入旺季背景下短期内溴素供需格局 或将偏紧，涨价趋势有望延续，建议关注具备国内溴素产能的相关标的。 事件： 根据百川盈孚数据，2025 年 3 月 25 日溴素市场均价为 2.8 万元/吨，相较于昨日大幅上涨 3000 元/吨，涨幅约为 12%。综合来看，根据百川盈孚数据，近期溴素价格已经历多轮调涨，其中 3 月 17 日、3 月 21 日、3 月 24 日分别上 涨 500、500、1000 元/吨，3 月 17 日至 25 日累计涨幅已达 5000 元/吨。 投资逻辑： 风险提示： 下游需求不及预期、原材料价格波动风险、国际贸易摩擦风险、溴素进口货源恢复正常。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 2014 ...

Group 1: Oil Industry - Investment Rating: The report suggests that the target price for Brent crude oil remains at $60-65 per barrel following OPEC+ production increases [3][14]. - Core Viewpoint: Recent U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports, combined with a drop in international oil prices, have led to a slight rebound in oil prices. However, the market typically requires large-scale sanctions to significantly impact prices [3][14]. - Recent Market Performance: As of March 21, 2025, Brent futures were priced at $72.16 per barrel, up $1.58, while WTI futures closed at $68.28 per barrel, up $1.10 [3][14]. Group 2: Natural Gas Industry - Investment Rating: Caution is advised regarding U.S. natural gas prices in the short term, with potential for price increases closer to summer [5][17]. - Core Viewpoint: Although the average natural gas price in Europe and the U.S. is expected to rise in 2025, current high prices in the U.S. reflect market conditions adequately, and further production increases may not be fully accounted for yet [5][17]. - Recent Market Performance: As of March 21, 2025, TTF was priced at $13.51 per MMBtu (up $0.06), JKM at $13 per MMBtu (down $1), and HH at $3.98 per MMBtu (down $0.04) [5][17]. Group 3: Coal Industry - Investment Rating: The coal market is experiencing downward pressure due to high inventory levels [6][53]. - Core Viewpoint: Domestic coal production has increased, with a reported output of 765 million tons in January-February 2025, up 7.70% year-on-year [6][56]. - Recent Market Performance: As of March 21, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 671 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [6][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 45.478 billion RMB for the year 2024, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.520 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.41% [2]. - The overseas market contributed significantly to the company's revenue, accounting for 51.41% of total income, with overseas revenue reaching 23.38 billion RMB, up 30.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with significant growth in high-end machinery and agricultural machinery, achieving revenues of 6.83 billion RMB and 4.65 billion RMB respectively, representing increases of 19.74% and 122.29% [3]. - The company is actively developing embodied intelligence technologies and has launched 162 new products, including 198 models of advanced robots [3]. - The company aims for high-quality growth by reducing accounts receivable and inventory, achieving a comprehensive collection rate of 120.29%, an increase of 13.26 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 53.235 billion RMB, 62.232 billion RMB, and 72.983 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be 5.080 billion RMB, 6.531 billion RMB, and 8.081 billion RMB [4][9]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve, reaching 29.3%, 29.6%, and 29.9% over the next three years [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 45.478 billion yuan for the year 2024, a decrease of 3.39% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.520 billion yuan, an increase of 0.41% year-on-year [2]. - The overseas market contributed significantly to the company's revenue, accounting for 51.41% of total income, with overseas revenue reaching 23.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.6% [2][3]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with significant growth in high-end machinery and agricultural machinery, achieving revenues of 6.83 billion yuan and 4.65 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 19.74% and 122.29% [3]. - The company is actively developing embodied intelligence technologies and has launched 162 new products, with 198 of them being leading-edge products in the domestic and international markets [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.092 billion yuan, down 4.05% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.851 billion yuan, up 4.42% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [2]. Operational Analysis - The gross profit margins for overseas and domestic markets were 32.05% and 24.06% respectively, indicating that the overseas market has a gross margin nearly 8 percentage points higher than the domestic market [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 28.17%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for gross margins to reach 29.3%, 29.6%, and 29.9% from 2025 to 2027 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 53.235 billion yuan, 62.232 billion yuan, and 72.983 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 5.080 billion yuan, 6.531 billion yuan, and 8.081 billion yuan respectively [4].

买入（维持评级） 公司点评 证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 25 日 比亚迪作为新能源汽车龙头，国内市场经营稳固，成本优势下竞争 优势明显，规模效应拉动折旧摊销利润释放，我们认为，比亚迪已 经进入了一个中期量价上行阶段。综上，我们预测 25-27 年归母净 利为 522.1/627.1/823.7 亿元，对应 20.9/17.4/13.3 倍 PE。维持 "买入"评级。 3 月 24 日，比亚迪发布 24 年全年财报： 1 、 营收：Q4 汽车销售 152.4 万辆（包含商用车），同/环比 +61.7%/+34.3%，营收 2748.5 亿元，同/环比+52.7%/+36.7%；其中 汽车及电池业务营收 2196.7 元，同/环比+54.4%/+39.4%。剔除比亚 迪电子后，我们计算 Q4 单车 ASP 为 14.4 万元，同/环比-4.5%/+3.8%。 24 年累计销售 427.2 万辆，同比+41.1%，其中乘用车 425.5 万辆， 营收 7771 亿元，同比+29%，单车 ASP14 万元，同比-12.1%。 2、费用：还原会计准则变动的 123.7 亿元影响后，我们计算 Q4 销 售/管理 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 558 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.5%, with a net profit of 315 million yuan, up 30.1% year-on-year [1]. - The platform's ecosystem is strengthening, with the "Yimaitong" platform surpassing 7 million registered physician users, covering 88% of practicing physicians in the country, and achieving a monthly active user count of 2.65 million, a 10.4% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company has developed an AI-powered medical model that has passed regulatory approval, enhancing content generation efficiency and accuracy, with a significant reduction in operational costs [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 558 million yuan, a 35.5% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 315 million yuan, reflecting a 30.1% growth [1]. Operational Analysis - The "Yimaitong" platform has 7 million registered physician users and 2.65 million monthly active users, with a 25.3% increase in cooperative medical clients to 228 and a 31.1% increase in cooperative medical products to 506 [2]. - Paid click counts reached 13.3 million, up 37.1% year-on-year, with 867,000 participating physicians, a 12.0% increase [2]. AI Empowerment and Cost Control - The company’s self-developed AI model integrates various technologies, improving content accuracy and efficiency, with a 60% increase in productivity for doctors using AI writing tools [3]. - The sales and management expense ratios were 6.0% and 31.4%, respectively, both showing a decrease compared to the previous year, attributed to stable employee numbers and high revenue growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 719 million, 915 million, and 1.163 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 28.8%, 27.16%, and 27.13% respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 350 million, 411 million, and 495 million yuan, with growth rates of 11.2%, 17.26%, and 20.55% respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 25.05, 21.36, and 17.72 [4].

业绩简评 3 月 24 日公司披露 2024 年年报，归母净利润同比+36.2%，人民币 口径下 NBV 同比+94.2%。 经营分析 整体业绩：净利润、EV 均实现较好增长。1）利润：全年归母净利 润同比+36.2%至 84.3 亿港元，其中 H2 同比+148%；全年寿险、境 内财险、境外财险、再保险业务分别同比+12%、+831%、-5%、+188%， 资产管理业务实现 5.4 亿净利润（上年同期亏损 0.6 亿港元），主 要受益于管理费收入增加与降本增效。寿险增速较低主要为审慎 目的，计提较多的所得税，税前净利润同比+93.7%。2）资产：集 团归母净资产较 23 年末、24H1 末分别-8.3%、-8.0%，主要受利率 下行影响。3）EV：集团归母内含价值同比+12.9%，假设变动使得 EV 折价 23.8%。寿险归母 EV 同比+13.9%，假设变动折价 26.0%。 寿险：同口径下 NBV 同比+90.0%（人民币口径同比+94.2%）；主要 由 NBV Margin 同比+ 16.6pct 至 32.5%驱动，新单保费-2.8%。假 设变动使得 NBV 折价 36.2%。1）个险渠道：NBV ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting the recovery in retail sales and the support from government policies [2][6]. Core Insights - Retail sales data shows a year-on-year growth of 4.0% in January-February 2025, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 4.8% [2][15]. - The hospitality sector is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in RevPAR for high-end hotels [4][22]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of specific companies like Gu Ming and Hua Zhu, which are expected to outperform the market [3][21]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The consumer sector is experiencing steady recovery, with significant growth in service consumption, particularly in dining and travel services [2][15]. - Key companies such as Jiu Hua and Hua Zhu have reported better-than-expected earnings, indicating strong performance in the domestic market [2][19]. Industry Data Tracking - Hotel RevPAR has shown a year-on-year increase of 0.9% in the 11th week of 2025, with first-tier cities leading the growth [4][22]. - The report suggests a focus on business travel, especially in first-tier cities, as the sector continues to recover [4][22]. Market Review - Over the past two weeks, the hospitality and restaurant sectors have outperformed the broader market, with notable increases in their respective indices [5][24]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the social services sector, ranking 10th among 31 industry sectors [5][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on new consumer growth stocks like Gu Ming and Da Shi, as well as leading companies such as Bai Sheng China and Hua Zhu [6][14]. - It suggests a strategic allocation towards sectors with strong dividend yields and growth potential, particularly in tourism and education [20][21].