1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation data in April reflects weak domestic demand. The CPI's year - on - year decline stabilized while the month - on - month showed an increase, and the PPI's decline widened, indicating overall weak inflation. [5][23] - In April, affected by international and domestic seasonal factors, industrial product prices weakened significantly. The Sino - US trade negotiation had no significant progress, and trade uncertainties remained. [5][23] - On May 7th, a package of monetary policy measures including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were introduced to stabilize domestic demand and address economic uncertainties. Observe the implementation effects of these policies. [5][23] - The interest rate curve is expected to shift downward as a whole, and long - term bond yields may hit new lows. With the increase in fundamental pressure and loose funds in May, the overall interest rate curve is likely to move down, and long - term bond yields may reach new lows. [5][23][26] 3. Summary by Related Content CPI and Core CPI - In April, the CPI year - on - year decreased by 0.1%, the same as last month, with three consecutive months of negative growth. The month - on - month increased by 0.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month. The core CPI year - on - year increased by 0.5%, unchanged from last month, and the month - on - month increased by 0.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month. [1][8] - The year - on - year stability of CPI and core CPI may be partly supported by the rise in gold prices. The "Other Goods and Services" sub - item in CPI increased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 6.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.4% in April. After excluding this sub - item, the April CPI year - on - year was - 0.3%, indicating weak overall inflation. [2][11] Food CPI - In April, the food CPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and the month - on - month changed from a decrease to an increase, with a significantly reduced drag. The fresh fruit price was the main driving factor. The food CPI year - on - year fell by 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points from last month; the month - on - month increased by 0.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from last month. [2][13] - Due to the fishing moratorium in some areas, the price of aquatic products increased by 1.2% month - on - month. The supply of new fruits decreased seasonally, and the fresh fruit price increased by 2.2% month - on - month. Affected by the decrease in imports, the beef price increased by 3.9%. The prices of fresh vegetables and pork decreased by 1.8% and 1.6% respectively, with the declines less than the seasonal average. [2][13][14] Non - food CPI - In April, the non - food CPI's year - on - year changed from an increase to a flat state, and the month - on - month turned positive. The transportation and communication CPI was the main drag due to the decline in international oil prices. The non - food price year - on - year was flat, with the growth rate down 0.2 percentage points from last month; the month - on - month changed from a 0.2% decrease last month to a 0.1% increase. [3][16] - Affected by the significant decline in international oil prices, the gasoline price decreased by 10.4%, dragging down the CPI year - on - year by about 0.38 percentage points. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with a relatively stable increase. [3][16] PPI - Affected by international commodity prices and seasonal factors, the year - on - year and month - on - month declines of the production materials PPI both widened in April. The production materials PPI year - on - year decreased by 3.1%, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points from last month, and the month - on - month decreased by 0.5%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage point. [4][18] - The decline in international crude oil prices led to a month - on - month decline in domestic oil - related industries. The price of the oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 14.2% year - on - year. With the end of heating in the north, the coal demand entered the off - season, and the prices of coal mining and washing and petroleum - coal processing decreased by 15.2% and 11.1% year - on - year respectively. [4][18] - In April, the year - on - year decline of the living materials PPI widened, with a 1.6% decrease, and the decline widened by 0.1 percentage point from last month. The food price decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, the same as last month. The price of general daily necessities rebounded, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point. The durable consumer goods decreased by 3.7% year - on - year, still in the negative growth range, and the decline further widened by 0.3 percentage points. [4][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current phase of coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with the market having a clear understanding of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and confidence should be maintained [3]. - The global seaborne coal trade volume decreased by 6.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with significant declines in coal exports from major countries [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are facing increasing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025, leading to a higher probability of production cuts [6]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Trade - In Q1 2025, the international seaborne coal trade volume was 307 million tons, down 6.7% year-on-year [2]. - Major exporting countries saw declines: Indonesia's exports fell by 10.7% to 114.5 million tons, Australia by 9.4% to 76.6 million tons, and the U.S. by 4.9% to 20.8 million tons [6]. Price Trends - As of May 9, 2025, coal prices showed slight increases: European ARA port coal at $97.1/ton (+1.9%), Newcastle port coal at $98.9/ton (+0.9%), while South African Richards Bay coal futures fell slightly to $89.0/ton (-0.1%) [1][37]. - The report indicates that coal prices are stabilizing after a prolonged decline since Q4 2021 [3]. Recommendations - The report recommends increasing positions in key coal companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and others, highlighting their potential for recovery and performance [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a 55% year-on-year increase in 2024, reaching 2.4 billion yuan, and a 28% increase in net profit to 180 million yuan. In Q1 2025, revenue surged by 65% year-on-year to 800 million yuan, with net profit increasing by 81% to 80 million yuan [1][3] - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capabilities, with operational factories in the US and Mexico, contributing to revenue growth and new customer acquisition. The US factory has achieved profitability, while the Mexican factory is in the ramp-up phase [2] - The company is focusing on emerging market applications and has developed a range of connector products for various industries, including telecommunications and electric vehicles, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [2] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 2.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.99 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24%. Net profit is expected to rise from 261 million yuan in 2025 to 374 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 32, 26, and 22 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 23.7%, with a net profit margin of 10.0%, reflecting improvements in profitability despite challenges from commodity price fluctuations and increased capacity investments [1][2]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 10 年 月 日 医药生物 【周专题&周观点】【总第 396 期】产线齐全、技术领先，国产血净龙头绘新篇 一、当周（5.6-5.9）回顾与周专题： 当周（5.6-5.9）申万医药指数环比+1.01%，跑输创业板指数，跑输沪深 300 指数。本 周周报，我们梳理了威高血净招股书，供各位投资者参考。 二、近期复盘： 1、当周表现：本周市场（节后交易四天）在过节期间多个利好刺激下，高开后连续震 荡。医药指数这边，走势类似。结构上看，脑机接口、外骨骼机器人、部分减肥链、少 量低位创新药有相对亮眼表现，其他都是个股逻辑为主，前期强势的大部分创新药标的 有所回调。 2、原因分析：本周市场高开主要受五一节期间多个利好刺激带动。节后，前期调整了 一段时间的科技风格资产回归，创新药资金被分流（近期创新药和其他科技资产"跷跷 板"），叠加美国那边部分信息扰动（关税、药价、FDA 等），大部分创新药标的在本周 有所回调。因为科技风格资产反弹，受市场风格映射影响，脑机接口、外骨骼机器人等， 表现亮眼。部分减肥链偏主题标的表现较好，其他表现好的都是个股逻辑，虽然这周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant recovery in performance in Q1 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 29% [2] - The company has signed new contracts worth 2.053 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 93%, indicating strong future revenue growth potential [4] - The establishment of a subsidiary focused on space-grade perovskite solar power generation is anticipated to create new growth opportunities in the commercial aerospace sector [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders to 90 million yuan, down 47% [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 30%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to high initial costs associated with the Dalian Airport project [3] - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 80 million yuan in 2024, which is a significant increase in cash outflow compared to the previous year [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 259 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 180% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated to be 1.05 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times [6] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company’s business is concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, benefiting from increased infrastructure demand driven by urbanization and industrialization [4] - The company has established a complete supply chain for aerospace quality, successfully supporting the launch of 15 satellites and over 40 satellite power systems [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - A comprehensive financial policy package has been released, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market. Additionally, the policy interest rate has been lowered by 0.1%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [10][11] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment [4] - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] Summary by Sections Financial Policy Overview - The financial policy package aims to stabilize market expectations and includes measures such as lowering the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25%, bringing the interest rate for first-time homebuyers over five years down from 2.85% to 2.6% [10] - The number of approved "white list" loans by commercial banks has increased to 6.7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of over 16 million residential units [10] Market Performance Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index experienced a cumulative change of 0.4%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 1.59 percentage points, ranking last among 31 Shenwan primary industries [11] - New housing transaction volumes in 30 sample cities totaled 150.1 million square meters, reflecting a 29.6% decrease month-on-month and a 1.8% decrease year-on-year [22] - The second-hand housing market also saw a decline, with a total transaction area of 158.0 million square meters across 14 sample cities, down 12.6% month-on-month and 8.0% year-on-year [32] Credit Bond Issuance - A total of 10 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, with a total issuance scale of 6.454 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1.923 billion yuan from the previous week [41] - The net financing amount was -8.157 billion yuan, indicating a decrease of 6.891 billion yuan from the previous week [41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, as these areas are expected to perform better during market rebounds [4] - Recommended companies include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments among others, categorized into fundamental alpha companies, local state-owned enterprises, and intermediaries [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.39 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.21 billion yuan, up 28.6% [1]. - The company is accelerating the development of new battery technologies and expanding its overseas production bases [3]. - The company’s battery product shipments are expected to grow by 40% in 2024 and 50% in Q1 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 18.0% and a net profit margin of 3.3%, both showing improvements [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.06 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.6% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit for Q1 2025 was 100 million yuan, a 45.6% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Product and Market Position - In the power battery sector, the company ranked eighth globally in installed capacity with a market share of 3.2% [2]. - The company is the third largest in the global lithium iron phosphate battery market, with a market share of 6.18% [2]. - In the energy storage battery sector, the company holds a 6% market share, ranking seventh globally [2]. Technology and Innovation - The company has launched several high-performance battery products and introduced its first-generation all-solid-state "Jinshi" battery [3]. - The company is also developing products for new market segments such as low-altitude aircraft and electric ships [3]. Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 1.31 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 8.8% [3]. - The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 1.87 billion yuan and 2.55 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 42.5% and 36.5% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the C-REITs sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The C-REITs market is expected to present investment opportunities due to a low interest rate environment anticipated in 2025 and ongoing macroeconomic recovery [5] - The report highlights that the secondary market for C-REITs has shown moderate upward trends, particularly in the affordable housing and consumer infrastructure sectors, while transportation infrastructure and ecological environmental sectors have experienced pullbacks [3][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in investment decisions, suggesting that the current focus should be on asset resilience, secondary market prices, and P/NAV ratios [5] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.39% this week, closing at 1062.1 points, while the CSI REITs closing index rose by 0.28% to 848.4 points [1][11] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has risen by 9.73%, ranking second among various indices [2][11] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The overall secondary market for C-REITs has shown a mild upward trend, with a total market capitalization of approximately 190.27 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [3][13] - Among the listed REITs, 44 have increased in value while 21 have decreased, with an average weekly increase of 0.66% [3][13] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs remains stable, with the top three REITs yielding 11.4%, 10.8%, and 9.1% respectively [5] - The P/NAV ratios are in the range of 0.7 to 1.7, with the lowest being 0.7 for the China Communications Construction REIT [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W19：一揽子金融政策发布，降准降息落地，地产支持政策稳步推进 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为 0.4%，落后沪深 300 指 数 1.59 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 31 名。 本周网签数据依然有五一假期的影响，样本城市新房二手房成交量能低位 徘徊。新房：本周 30 个城市新房成交面积为 150.1 万平方米，环比下降 29.6%，同比下降 1.8%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 42.6 万 方，环比-35.3%，同比+17.1%；样本二线城市为 68.5 万方，环比-29.4%， 同比-14.9%；样本三线城市为 39.0 万方，环比-22.5%，同比+8.5%。 二手房：本周 14 个样本城市二手房成交面积合计 158.0 万方，环比下降 12.6%，同比下降 8.0%。其中样本一线城市的本周二手房成交面积为 59.2 万方，环比-22.5%；样本二线城市为 81.4 万方，环比 5.9%；样本 三线城市为 17.4 万方，环比-36.8%。 信用债：本周共发行房 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model Based on Prosperity-Trend-Crowdedness Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates three dimensions: industry prosperity, market trend, and crowdedness, aiming to identify industries with high prosperity, strong trends, and low crowdedness for rotation strategies [1][3][8] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Prosperity Dimension**: Evaluate industries based on fundamental indicators such as earnings growth and analyst expectations 2. **Trend Dimension**: Identify industries with strong upward momentum using technical indicators 3. **Crowdedness Dimension**: Measure the level of market participation and sentiment to avoid over-crowded industries 4. Combine these three dimensions into a scoring framework to rank industries and allocate weights accordingly [1][8][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance with consistent excess returns over benchmarks, making it a reliable tool for industry rotation [9] 2. Model Name: Industry Distress Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on industries in distress or recovering from past distress, with potential for long-term improvement in fundamentals and inventory cycles [17][99] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Exclude industries with inventory and capital expenditure historical percentiles >80% 2. Exclude industries with gross margin and free cash flow historical percentiles <20% 3. Identify industries with improving inventory conditions and favorable macroeconomic signals 4. Allocate weights to industries meeting these criteria [17][99] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures opportunities in recovering industries, delivering strong absolute and relative returns in backtests [99] 3. Model Name: PB-ROE Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Select stocks within industries based on valuation and profitability metrics, emphasizing high valuation-to-profitability efficiency [13][107] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the industry allocation weights from the rotation model 2. Rank stocks within each industry by PB-ROE scores 3. Select the top 40% of stocks based on these scores 4. Weight selected stocks by their market capitalization and PB-ROE scores [13][107] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated strong performance in both absolute and relative terms, with high information ratios and low drawdowns [107] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Rotation Model - Annualized excess return: 16.3% - Information ratio (IR): 1.74 - Maximum drawdown: -7.4% - Monthly win rate: 71% - 2023 excess return: 9.3% - 2024 excess return: 5.0% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 2.2% [9][96][97] 2. Industry Distress Reversal Model - Annualized excess return: 16.5% - Information ratio (IR): 1.76 - Maximum drawdown: -8.7% - 2023 absolute return: 13.0%, excess return: 16.6% - 2024 absolute return: 25.6%, excess return: 14.5% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 1.7% [99][101][102] 3. PB-ROE Stock Selection Model - Annualized excess return: 22.9% - Information ratio (IR): 2.02 - Maximum drawdown: -8.0% - Monthly win rate: 74% - 2022 excess return: 10.2% - 2023 excess return: 10.4% - 2024 absolute return: 14.6%, excess return: 4.6% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 1.0% [13][107][109] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Crowdedness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the level of market participation and sentiment to identify over-crowded industries [1][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use trading volume, fund flows, and sentiment indicators to quantify crowdedness 2. Normalize the data and rank industries by crowdedness scores 3. Avoid industries with high crowdedness scores in allocation [1][8] 2. Factor Name: Inventory Cycle - **Factor Construction Idea**: Incorporates inventory levels and related metrics to identify industries with favorable inventory conditions [17][18] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate inventory-to-sales ratios and historical percentiles 2. Identify industries with low inventory pressure and signs of restocking 3. Combine with macroeconomic indicators for final scoring [17][18] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Crowdedness Factor - Integrated into the industry rotation model, contributing to stable excess returns and risk control [1][8][9] 2. Inventory Cycle Factor - Integrated into the distress reversal model, enhancing its ability to capture recovery opportunities in industries [17][18][99]