Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Accumulate" [5] Core Viewpoints - The travel and tourism sector shows significant growth, with domestic travel during the May Day holiday reaching 314 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a 36.4% increase compared to 2019 [1] - The average spending per traveler during the holiday was 574 yuan, reflecting a 1.5% year-on-year increase [1] - The overall retail and catering sales during the holiday increased by 6.3% year-on-year, indicating sustained consumer market vitality [4] Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism - Popular scenic spots saw substantial visitor increases, with notable growth in ticket sales and revenue for various attractions [2] - Long-distance travel destinations in western China experienced ticket sales growth of 100-200% year-on-year [3] - Outbound travel orders increased by 20% year-on-year, while inbound travel orders surged by 130% due to favorable policies [3] Hotel and Accommodation - Hotel bookings during the May Day holiday increased by 24.93% year-on-year, with average booking prices for economy hotels rising compared to last year [2] - High occupancy rates were reported in various regions, particularly in second and third-tier cities [2] Retail and Consumer Spending - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a year-on-year sales increase of 8.7% during the holiday [4] - Specific sectors such as home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment saw sales growth of 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% respectively [4] - The overall consumer market remains vibrant, with significant increases in foot traffic and sales in major cities [7] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in hotel and tourism companies such as Huazhu Group, Jinjiang Hotels, and Xiangyuan Culture Tourism [8] - The retail sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Chongqing Department Store identified as key players [8]

目前灵巧手的传动方案主要包括传统的连杆传动、齿轮传动、腱绳传动。 其中连杆传动、齿轮传动存在结构复杂、重量大、柔性不足、空间配置要 求高、远距离控制困难等劣势。腱绳传动通过模拟人手"肌腱"结构，使 得大型的驱动器远离了执行机构，减轻末端的负载和惯量，提升了抓取的 速度、精度。同时，腱绳传动布局灵活，在轻量化的同时适合空间狭小且 需要驱动自由度数目较多的传动场景。 机器人腱绳的市场空间有多大？2024 年 10 月，特斯拉发布第三代人形机 器人 Optimus GEN-3，其灵巧手采用行星齿轮箱+丝杠+腱绳结构，自由 度由 11 个翻倍提升至 22 个。我们测算 22 自由度下腱绳单机价值量约 3520 元，1000 万台人形机器人出货量对应腱绳市场规模达 352 亿元。 伴随方案渗透以及降本，腱绳在灵巧手以外关节等环节应用值得期待。 基础化工 机器人腱绳：渗透加速，重视超高分子量聚乙烯 机器人腱绳赋能灵巧手灵活度、轻量化，渗透前景广阔。据中国信息通信 研究院预测：2045 年我国人形机器人将步入 Lv5 阶段，对应市场规模达 10 万亿级别。灵巧手作为一种新型的末端执行器逐步替代传统夹持器，在 人形机器人与环 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Add" [6] Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel industry is expected to recover in 2024, with a focus on quality brands in 2025. The apparel brands are projected to face profit pressure in 2024, with a slight improvement anticipated in Q1 2025 [1][4] - The textile manufacturing sector shows stable growth, with a significant profit increase driven by improved capacity utilization. The impact of recent tariff changes may accelerate industry optimization in the medium to long term [2][4] - The gold and jewelry sector exhibits performance divergence, with brands that focus on store expansion and product differentiation outperforming the industry average [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Apparel Brands - In 2024, the revenue of key apparel companies (A-shares only) is expected to decline by 2.2%, with a net profit drop of 24.1%. The decline in profit is more significant than revenue due to negative operating leverage and increased expense ratios [1][21] - The gross margin for key apparel companies is projected to increase by 0.4 percentage points to 56.8% in 2024, with a further increase of 1.1 percentage points to 57.4% in Q1 2025 [1][33] - Cash flow for most brands in 2024 is expected to align with performance, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [1][49] 2. Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is projected to see a revenue increase of 6.4% and a net profit growth of 26.9% in 2024, with leading companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group showing revenue growth rates of 15% and 19% respectively [2][4] - The revenue growth for key textile manufacturing companies is expected to slow down in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 due to high base effects, but overall performance remains stable [2][4] - The sector is expected to benefit from a more integrated and internationalized supply chain, particularly for leading companies [2][4] 3. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector is expected to see a revenue decline of 1.7% in 2024, with a net profit increase of 3.6%. Companies with strong product differentiation and store expansion strategies are likely to outperform [3][4] - The consumption of gold jewelry is projected to decrease by 25% in 2024, while the demand for gold bars and coins is expected to rise by 25% [3][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, recommended stocks include Anta Sports, with a projected PE of 18 times for 2025, and other companies like Tabo, Weigao Medical, and Hailan Home, with varying PE ratios [4][9] - In textile manufacturing, recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with projected PE ratios of 11 and 15 times respectively for 2025 [4][9] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chaohongji are highlighted, with projected PE ratios of 16 and 18 times for 2025 [4][9]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" stores in Jiangsu, focusing on a multi-category discount retail model that combines snacks, fresh fruits, and baked goods, aiming to cater to the upgrading consumption in lower-tier markets [1][2][4] - The store's product mix includes a significant focus on high-quality items, with a clear emphasis on customer service, such as offering free fruit cutting and washing services, indicating a shift from merely price-based competition to quality and service enhancement [2][11][15] - The report suggests that the head of the snack retail system is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with the potential for further differentiation in store types and a robust supply chain to support this growth [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Multi-Category Expansion and Store Types - "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" is expanding its store types and product categories, with plans for rapid franchise growth [1][10] - The store has opened six locations in Jiangsu, focusing on community-centric locations with larger store sizes compared to traditional snack stores [11][13] 2. Product and Service Quality - The store's product categories have expanded to include fresh fruits, short-shelf-life baked goods, and a variety of dairy and beverage products, while maintaining a selective SKU approach [2][15] - The overall product quality is high, with pre-packaged fruits and well-known brand household products, enhancing customer loyalty through superior service [15][20] 3. Store Layout and Pricing Strategy - The store layout is designed for clear product zoning and customer flow, with a focus on larger single product displays [20] - Pricing remains competitive, with discounts on various categories compared to traditional supermarkets and online platforms, maintaining a value proposition for consumers [21][23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the snack retail sector, with established players poised to leverage their supply chain advantages and expand into new product categories [4][26] - The ongoing franchise model and the introduction of new store types are expected to enhance market coverage and operational efficiency [4][26]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Add" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the transformation of retail through the expansion of multi-category discount formats, particularly focusing on the "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" in Jiangsu, which combines various store types and aims for rapid franchise expansion [1][4][10] - The "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" has successfully opened six stores in Jiangsu, emphasizing a community-centric approach with larger store sizes compared to traditional snack stores [11][24] - The product mix includes fresh fruits, short-shelf-life baked goods, and a selection of daily necessities, positioning the store more as a food supermarket rather than a simple discount retailer [2][15] Summary by Sections 1. Multi-Category Expansion and Store Types - The "Good Idea Whole Food Selection" is expanding its franchise model with multiple store types, aiming to adapt to various market needs and consumer preferences [1][10] - The company has introduced a diverse range of products, including fresh produce and baked goods, while maintaining a focus on cost-effectiveness and quality [2][11] 2. Store Layout and Customer Experience - The store layout is designed for clear product zoning and customer flow, enhancing the shopping experience and encouraging cross-selling among different product categories [3][20] - The stores feature a significant display area for selected SKUs, which contrasts with the dense layout of traditional supermarkets, thereby improving visibility and accessibility [20] 3. Pricing Strategy - The pricing strategy continues to emphasize value, with many products priced significantly lower than competitors like Hema and traditional supermarkets, maintaining a competitive edge in the market [21][23] - The report provides specific pricing comparisons, showing that many items are offered at discounts ranging from 50% to 80% compared to other retailers [23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the industry is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with leading companies like Wanchen Group and Mingming Hen Mang poised to capitalize on their established supply chains and operational efficiencies [4][26] - The potential for further market penetration and the introduction of additional store formats is highlighted as a key growth driver for the industry [4][26]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 gszqdatemark 2025 05 07 年 月 日 基础化工 机器人腱绳：渗透加速，重视超高分子量聚乙烯 机器人腱绳赋能灵巧手灵活度、轻量化，渗透前景广阔。据中国信息通信 研究院预测：2045 年我国人形机器人将步入 Lv5 阶段，对应市场规模达 10 万亿级别。灵巧手作为一种新型的末端执行器逐步替代传统夹持器，在 人形机器人与环境的交互中起到关键作用，占整机价值量 18%。 目前灵巧手的传动方案主要包括传统的连杆传动、齿轮传动、腱绳传动。 其中连杆传动、齿轮传动存在结构复杂、重量大、柔性不足、空间配置要 求高、远距离控制困难等劣势。腱绳传动通过模拟人手"肌腱"结构，使 得大型的驱动器远离了执行机构，减轻末端的负载和惯量，提升了抓取的 速度、精度。同时，腱绳传动布局灵活，在轻量化的同时适合空间狭小且 需要驱动自由度数目较多的传动场景。 机器人腱绳的市场空间有多大？2024 年 10 月，特斯拉发布第三代人形机 器人 Optimus GEN-3，其灵巧手采用行星齿轮箱+丝杠+腱绳结构，自由 度由 11 个翻倍提升至 22 个。我们测算 22 自由度下腱绳单机价值量约 3520 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 05 07 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 A 股一季度报盈利特征&5 月市场观点 今日概览 重磅研报 【策略】A 股 25Q1 盈利与供需特征如何？——25Q1 财报分析（一）— —20250506 研究视点 【食品饮料】零售变革草根调研（二）四川零食有鸣批发超市：多品类 折扣先行者，千店规模优势深厚——20250506 【通信】润泽科技（300442.SZ）-改造机房适配新需求，AIDC 高增趋势 未改——20250506 【电新】同飞股份（300990.SZ）-25Q1 毛利率环比持续提升，期待公司 数据中心、半导体温控收入放量——20250506 作者 | 分析师 熊园 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680518050004 | | | | | 邮箱：xiongyuan@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 美容护理 | 15.6% | 12.4% | -4.2% | | 计算机 | 14.6% | -1 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: CDS Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the 20-day difference signal of China's sovereign CDS as a timing indicator for Hong Kong stocks, leveraging the negative correlation between CDS and stock performance[12][13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 20-day difference of China's sovereign CDS 2. Use the signal to time Hong Kong stock investments 3. Evaluate the annualized excess return relative to the benchmark - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a strong fit with Hong Kong stock returns and provides a reliable timing signal[12][13] 2. Model Name: Duration Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the expected return of government bonds for any duration and holding period using a multi-step process[17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Decompose government bond yields 2. Predict interest rates using modeling techniques 3. Simulate scenarios via Monte Carlo methods 4. Calculate expected returns for different durations and holding periods - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy is effective for short-term bond timing and provides actionable insights for duration allocation[17][19] 3. Model Name: Equity Index Return Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Predict the future returns of broad-based indices using a combination of macroeconomic and valuation factors[22][27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use macroeconomic indicators and valuation metrics 2. Apply the model to predict returns for indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. 3. Compare predicted returns to historical benchmarks - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows strong predictive power for large-cap indices like CSI 300, while small-cap indices like CSI 500 exhibit lower reliability[22][27] 4. Model Name: Industry Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Evaluate industries based on momentum, turnover, volatility, and beta to identify rotation opportunities[60] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate 12-month information ratios for industry momentum 2. Assess turnover, volatility, and beta for crowding metrics 3. Combine these dimensions to rank industries - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively identifies high-potential industries and provides actionable rotation insights[60][63] 5. Model Name: Odds + Win Rate Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine odds and win rate metrics to allocate assets dynamically[65][70] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct odds and win rate indicators for each asset 2. Combine the two metrics into a unified score 3. Allocate assets based on the combined score - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy balances risk and return effectively, achieving stable performance over time[65][70] --- Model Backtest Results 1. CDS Timing Strategy - Annualized Return: 11.8% - Annualized Volatility: 13.9% - Maximum Drawdown: 19.1% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.851[15] 2. Duration Timing Strategy - Annualized Return: 6.8% - Annualized Volatility: 2.1% - Maximum Drawdown: 2.3% - Calmar Ratio: 2.94[19] 3. Equity Index Return Prediction Model - CSI 300: Predicted Return 19.7% - CSI 500: Predicted Return -27.8%[22][26] 4. Industry Rotation Strategy - Annualized Excess Return: 12.2% (since 2011) - Tracking Error: 10.9% - Maximum Drawdown: 25.4% - IR: 1.12[61] 5. Odds + Win Rate Strategy - Annualized Return: 6.9% (since 2011) - Annualized Volatility: 2.3% - Maximum Drawdown: 2.8% - Sharpe Ratio: 3.03[72] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Quality Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines odds, trend, and crowding metrics to evaluate quality stocks[46] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate odds (valuation) at 1.3 standard deviations 2. Assess trend at -0.1 standard deviations 3. Measure crowding at -1.1 standard deviations 4. Combine metrics into a composite score - **Factor Evaluation**: High composite score indicates strong potential for long-term allocation[46] 2. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates growth stocks based on trend, odds, and crowding metrics[47] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate trend at 0.5 standard deviations 2. Assess odds at -1.1 standard deviations 3. Measure crowding at 0.2 standard deviations 4. Combine metrics into a composite score - **Factor Evaluation**: Low composite score suggests limited allocation value[47] 3. Factor Name: Dividend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on dividend-paying stocks with moderate odds and low crowding[50] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate trend at -1.7 standard deviations 2. Assess odds at -0.2 standard deviations 3. Measure crowding at -1.6 standard deviations 4. Combine metrics into a composite score - **Factor Evaluation**: Low composite score indicates limited allocation potential[50] 4. Factor Name: Small-Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates small-cap stocks based on trend, odds, and crowding metrics[53] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate trend at -0.06 standard deviations 2. Assess odds at -0.05 standard deviations 3. Measure crowding at 0.3 standard deviations 4. Combine metrics into a composite score - **Factor Evaluation**: High uncertainty and low composite score suggest caution[53] --- Factor Backtest Results 1. Quality Factor - Odds: 1.3 SD - Trend: -0.1 SD - Crowding: -1.1 SD - Composite Score: 3[46] 2. Growth Factor - Odds: -1.1 SD - Trend: 0.5 SD - Crowding: 0.2 SD - Composite Score: 0[47] 3. Dividend Factor - Odds: -0.2 SD - Trend: -1.7 SD - Crowding: -1.6 SD - Composite Score: 0[50] 4. Small-Cap Factor - Odds: -0.05 SD - Trend: -0.06 SD - Crowding: 0.3 SD - Composite Score: 0[53]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 06 年 月 日 投资策略 5 月市场观点：关注关税的实际影响幅度 1、关税冲击将显，关注实际影响幅度 关税加征的两个关切：一是沿总量层面，实际关税税率水平、对出口的冲击以及对 经济增速的拖累如何？二是沿盈利传导层面，本轮关税加征存在结构性的豁免以 及额外加征，且各行业产品的全球比价优势存在明显差异，那么哪些行业面临压 力更大？ 鉴于特朗普已单方面提及要调降对等关税幅度，且中美双方尚未真正开启磋商， 所以此前对等关税的几个版本都需要纳入考虑：①情形一：10%基准关税加征 +10%芬太尼关税；②情形二：10%基准关税加征+10%芬太尼关税+34%对等关 税；③情形三：10%基准关税加征+10%芬太尼关税+84%对等关税；情形④：10% 基准关税加征+10%芬太尼关税+125%对等关税。测算结果显示： ③关于经济增速：四类关税加征情形下对应的对 GDP 的拖累幅度预计将分别达到 1.2%、1.6%、1.7%和 1.7%左右。若考虑潜在的新增转口贸易、海外建厂等因素 还将对冲部分压力，实际对 GDP 的实际拖累幅度预计在 1%-1.4%左右。 ④ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the multi-category discount retail format, with "零食有鸣" leading the way in this transformation. The company has established over 4,000 stores by the end of 2024, with a significant increase in the number of stores opening in 2025 [1][3] - The discount retail format is seen as a response to insufficient overall demand and excess supply, similar to trends observed in the retail markets of the US and Japan. This format is expected to capture a significant market share [20] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Development - "零食有鸣" has pioneered the multi-category discount retail format, opening its first store in Chengdu in 2021 and expanding to over 4,000 stores by the end of 2024. The company opened 189 new stores during the 2024 National Day holiday, surpassing 1,500 stores by April 2025 [1][11] - The company focuses on community-based locations, targeting local residents and students, which positions it well against traditional small supermarkets [12] Section 2: Product Categories and Pricing - The product mix includes snacks, beverages, daily necessities, and seasonings, with snacks occupying approximately 50% of shelf space. The pricing strategy emphasizes value, with many products priced at 70-80% of nearby supermarkets and online platforms [2][16] - The high proportion of private label products in the daily necessities category is expected to enhance profitability and meet diverse community needs [16][19] Section 3: Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - The report indicates that the category adjustments are minimal, allowing for easier operational scalability. The company is expected to establish direct partnerships with suppliers as it continues to expand its store network [3][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain efficiency, which is crucial for the success of the discount retail model, particularly in the early stages of multi-category expansion [20]